Breakout Picks + Standout Schedules - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/19
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Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Monday episode of the Fantasy Footballers. Jason Moore is here. Mike, the fantasy hitman present, accounted for, backwards cap and all. Is my hat on backwards? Yeah.

Now, see, I have been a little bit curious. I'm Andy Holloway, by the way. You got a haircut. Yes. I know this, to be true, because you came in and we noticed it. But we only noticed it because of the sides, because you continue to wear your caps. That's right. Are you just waiting to debut this for the live show? I mean, what is the... Well, an underrated part of a haircut, when you have a short hairdo, you look...

You look better in the hat once the hair is cut too. You do. Yeah. It's all just part of it, man. Yeah, but you just haven't really, you know, I'm breaking it out on the show. Some say. Are we not showering?

Oh, no. I'm fresh out of the shower today. I'm proud of you, man. I've been told it's too sexy. Oh. I don't doubt it. And I hate that. Too sexy. This is like you're like a bodybuilder with a shirt on. There's no. That's just stupid. Why do it? You know, you've got. He's doing it for us. Yeah. Yeah. I am protecting you guys. Yeah. I don't know what you're talking about.

I'm a hat man. Yeah, you got a nice head of hair under there. Oh yeah, I do. I bet you anything. We got a breakouts episode on the show today. Very excited. This week we're going to get into breakouts and sleepers, busts, value picks, and mock draft and some other stuff going on this week.

Very excited. Sleeper is presenting the Megalus show live in Los Angeles on Saturday. We will be out there at the Palace Theater. We'll be giving away tons of autographed gear. We got a grand prize giveaway. We have a Q&A live after the episode of the show. We'll be doing our bold predictions episode live in Los Angeles. So if you want to come and hang out with us, ballerslive.com, your last chance to get over there and do it.

The Listener League, all of the winners have been notified and emailed. So this is, I mean, I guess this is only news for those that didn't win. Basically 99% of you, this is bad news. However. Because the winners already know, so they didn't need to be told. No, why did you bring this up? I'm sorry. Here's why to bring it up.

Seriously, genuinely, thank you. We had a thousand different submissions, not an exaggeration, and the time, work, energy, effort, talent, character, personality. We just have an amazing audience. We thank you. I am so sorry that we could not have everyone here. Obviously, you can play in the Megalobowl, and that's coming soon, and the winner will get to play with us next year, so you always have a chance, even if your submissions fail.

And the Ultimate Draft Kit available right now, ultimatedraftkit.com. This is getting into the biggest weekend for drafts here very soon. So you're prepping up. I've been talking to people. They are getting ready. They're getting set to dominate on draft day. So pick up that UDK. Now, most of the time listening to this podcast is very beneficial for your fantasy team. Yeah, it's great. However, I have to share a story. Oh, man. You have to actually listen to the show for it to be beneficial.

I mean, that's true. That's true. However, this person did. Justin wrote in, and I just couldn't help but share this story. Actually, Jason, why don't you read it? All righty. If you don't mind. Yeah, no, I don't mind. So this story, not a question, just a hilarious story that may lead to my divorce, says Justin in Alabama.

Driving back from the beach yesterday, I forced my wife to listen to the My Guys episode, mainly because we were having our family draft last night. I have won the league three years in a row. It's the only league that I'm in where there's no money involved, but it's probably the most competitive league because of all the trash talk, which is very similar to our league of record.

My wife usually follows ADP and reads weekly waiver wire articles, but doesn't know much beyond what she is told to do by the articles she decides to read that particular week. Well, she had the sixth pick and she was excited to... Six overall, huh? It sounds like it. She was excited to stray away from ADP to take...

Tank Bigsby with the sixth overall pick and was so excited because that was the only name she remembered from the My Guys episode. She was the butt of the jokes for the next two hours during the draft and has still not talked to me since the draft ended. Tank Bigsby taken in the first round. That is... Oh, no. Because I believe, Andy, that was your third My Guy if memory serves. It serves. That's right. Both of you guys.

Oh my gosh. So not, I mean, Tank Bigsby, sixth overall in at least one draft. Here's what I can tell you. Justin's wife, name unknown. Plenty of people have drafted someone in the first round who gets injured, misses the year and wins the championship. So stick with it. Just assume your first round pick got injured. She might be in trouble.

It's an uphill battle. All right, let's jump in. Welcome to Ready to Roll, presented by Nissan.

All right, we're going to jump into another edition of Ready to Roll, which has been really fun to kind of prime you up with some strategies to help you heading into the season. And this one fits the moniker Ready to Roll pretty perfectly because it's

Getting off to a great start in fantasy is an actually underrated part of drafting a team. So it's a great tiebreaker between two players. When you are looking at that opening schedule, that can help make all the difference. And the truth of the matter is, and we brought this up on tips and trick shows, or many of you with experience playing fantasy football already know this because...

your team looks nothing like the day you drafted it. We say the draft sets a great foundation. You don't win your league at the draft because, you know, it gives you the ability to make those maneuvers throughout the year. Especially Justin's wife.

Justice Wright will need to pay close attention. Also, I would pay close attention to this one because this segment is probably the only time we're going to say it as succinctly before the season and this is a good strategy for fantasy football. I implore this strategy of looking at the

the beginning of the season, as even probably a little bit more than a tiebreaker. I care so much about the first month of the season when I'm drafting and redrafting. It makes a huge difference. And so that's what we're going to look at is the opening schedules for several players at all of the positions and players that are set up to succeed to start the year. And it's funny because I got an email the other day

And they were basically saying, like, are you – you know, what about the end-of-season schedules as the differentiator between these players? No, no, no, no, no. And that's not a good way to think about it because the turnover at the defensive strength position, you know, it changes so quickly year to year. Not just, like, is this defense good or bad, but how they play the different positions. Some teams become very weak against tight end, strong against tight end, and all of the different positions. And that data –

which we put into our in-season tools, we really don't even start showing you that data until... Now, see, I just pivoted from data to data. Which do you prefer moving forward? Well, data is usually what I prefer, but he is also from Star Trek. Oh, okay. So you go data? No, I think I do. I use data. Because data sounds like da-da. You know what I mean? Right. Pa-pa.

Yeah, I get it. No, let's go data. But they call him Data because he had the data. That is true. He was a robot. I think they call him Data because he had the data. Uh-oh. Yeah. You don't call someone. It's like, oh, you got the milk. I'm going to call you Mike. That doesn't make sense. Malk. All right. You said succinctly. My bad. Officially, yes.

This is not succinctly. But we don't show you the end of season. The end of season schedules are to be decision makers mid-season. That's why I traded for Dak Prescott. That's why I traded for David Njoku last year. It wasn't

looking forward from the draft day, it was halfway through the year. Yeah, there's a lot more data, official data midway through the year where we know. Right now we're guessing about the first month of the season. We're going to be right more often than we're wrong, but we will be wrong using last year's data to project it.

And so looking at the quarterback position, we're paying attention to more than just how these teams were against the past last year. Although if you use that as a guide to start the season, Jaden Daniels plays against the 29th, 27th and 28th past defenses to start the year and then goes up against Arizona who can't pressure the quarterback. So Jaden Daniels actually has a great start to the season based on last year's data.

But we're also looking at over-unders. We're looking at projected total points in these games where Kyler Murray, Tua Tungavailoa, who always gets off to a hot start anyways, I do feel like he has probably been a little too ignored in draft conversations in terms of you don't have to make a lifetime commitment to Tua. But starting the year, you've got over-unders of 49, 51, and 49,

and then a really good matchup against Tennessee. He's a much better draft pick than I had been spending the offseason thinking, and this is why. I mean, if you start the season 3-0 versus 0-3, it makes a pretty big difference. Yeah, as far as your fantasy team? Absolutely. And then Jared Goff, we've talked about his schedule. It's so juicy to start the season that he has to be on those lists as well.

And he had seven top 12 finishes last year. At the running back position, you look at strong opening schedule possibilities. You can look at Josh Jacobs facing some bad run defenses based on last year's data and being the new main man in Green Bay. James Cook, who's Mike's my guy but faces Arizona and Miami and Jacksonville, a really strong opening season schedule.

And then Tajay Spears and I'll say obviously slash Tony Pollard because Tennessee's running opponents in terms of how they performed last year, they're not good to start the year. So, again, these things change, but it's good to know if you're making that decision between two very similar players, you know, patience is not a very –

acquirable virtue for fantasy players to start the year. It's very hard to be patient if you've been disappointed with bad schedules. At wide receiver...

Malik neighbors. Another, my guy. Great, great start to the year. I was getting the reactions. I was getting to every Daniel Jones pass in preseason week two were outrageous. It was like, well, so were the passes. Yeah. The passes were outrageous. He had a good game. I mean, he had, he had a couple of big catches. I think he had 54 yards, but then Daniel Jones coming off the ACL had two picks. Godwin, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have strong starts to the season. They do.

and uh jameson williams if he is a thing he will have the chance to be a thing because he's got that same juicy schedule as jared goff and then at the tight end position a lot of positive buzz around evan ingram and his camp performance and his performance in joint practices he has a great opening schedule i still am i'm always glancing at ingram later in drafts i know sure i know that uh it's not been unanimous here but i am and then

Hunter Henry, who's been one of the, quote, invisible men, I think. Unvisible? Invisible. Okay, that's a word. Yeah. Yeah, you definitely said invisible. I thought he was doing an unter joke. I wasn't. Oh. Yeah, no, it's just a misspeak that we don't allow here on the Fantasy Footballers podcast. The dad-dad told me that...

Hunter has been invisible. Okay. Yep. Perfect. I really don't like how this is turning. You normally have kind of a... Yeah, I've got a stranglehold on the misspeaks, but now I'm just... Ever since I knocked a tooth out, it's really gone sideways. I'm really taking it over. This one, you know, Pat Fryermuth is lined up to have a great start to the season. However, I would bring to mind that Fryermuth's situation with Arthur Smith is not... I'm not encouraged.

In preseason through two weeks. In terms of how many snaps he's got with the first team. We know the tight end rotation in Atlanta was terrifying with Kyle Pitts. I'm actually...

I'm actually pumping my own brakes on Pat Fryermuth personally. Good thing you're in a student driver car and I'm in the other seat and I'm hitting the gas, baby. The Muth going to be Luth. You don't know which quarterback's playing which week. They both have looked horrible all offseason. And now you have different tight ends playing and the Muth hasn't been Luth in years. So I'm sorry, Jay. I'm out. Season long, that's perfectly fine because Hunter Henry –

Who, if you might remember, Hunter Henry also had a really strong start to last year. Obviously, different team, different quarterback. But Hunter's opening schedule... I'm searching for Hunter and I can't find him. Yeah, you're not going to... The opening schedule for the Patriots, like fantasy points against... He was the number one? Yeah. And the number two tight end for the first two weeks last year. Yeah, that sounds about right. So he's... If you... Maybe you're in a larger league. You're in a 14 or 16 team league and...

Getting a tight end, it just has not worked out. You're going to be streaming the position. I would check out some of these guys with the better opening schedule. Last year, it was, when we were talking about these types of players, it was Jake Ferguson and Sam Laporta, two guys who were just not really drafted. If they were, it was in the late double-digit rounds, but they both had such juicy opening schedules.

Now, that's not me saying we did it. We called Sam Laporte. It was saying these are two players that we identified that could start out pretty hot. And I would say when you're looking at different positions and schedules, you'll hear this all throughout the season. The tight end is the position to me of all of them the most where I care about who is good or bad. Like the teams that are really bad against tight end are just –

they've got a hole in their defense that they don't know how to fix. And week after week after week, even bad tight ends, they,

They just can't guard them. Sometimes it's a choice, too. I'd rather be beaten by Hunter Henry than, well, I guess a bad example. They don't have wide receivers. Jalen Polk or somebody. Yeah, exactly. So it is like you said. Schematically, that just might be how you funnel your defense. But I really do like targeting tight ends that are going up against really bad, like the top five or whatever.

the bottom five defenses against tight end. Obviously, this is last year's data we're looking at, mixed with some of the new year, but it should still work out with these three guys. All right, something to keep in mind for you. That was Ready to Roll presented by Nissan. Find your path in the 2024 Nissan Pathfinder Rock Creek, designed to be aggressive all the way up to the front grille.

It's like my grill. Learn more at NissanUSA.com. Intelligent four-wheel drive cannot prevent collisions or provide enhanced traction in all conditions. Always monitor traffic and weather conditions. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Well, we've got a lot to get to today. It's a breakout show, but I did want to kind of ask you your favorite players of the weekend. We've got another week of preseason football.

And the two names for me, Bo Nix's performance in Denver, it's looking like Bo Nix. I mean, it's looking like collegiate Bo Nix with the efficiency and the level of the completion percentage. So I was really impressed. I think Bo Nix was my number one.

Uh, and then I'm still going to throw Roma dunes. They out there. Yeah. I am trying to go to bat for him lately. I, I am a believer in Roma dunes. And the, essentially the broken play in Chicago. I think that what we've seen thus far with, with the offense is that Caleb is willing to move around, extend the play. He's made some outrageous throws. He's made some mistakes, all of that stuff. But as plays break down, it seems like the, um,

Like the homing, the eyes, the homing missile is going to Roma Dunzey on some of these plays. And they had a big connection this last weekend. And just looking at probabilities with Keenan Allen, he's 32 years old. There's only been, you know, a handful of players at that age and older that really put up kind of prolific plays.

seasons when it comes to total receptions. We did see Thielen do it last year. Larry Fitzgerald had done it. Reggie Wayne did it when you're 32 plus and you get over 100 receptions. But I just want to leave the door ajar there for the ninth overall pick with incredible athleticism, big body, competitive catch guy,

I think that there's a chance that we're talking more about Roma Dune Day than we think at some point this year, and we'll leave it there. I don't hate the take at all. I believe in Rome, the player, as well. I hate that three wide receivers for the Chicago Bears were being drafted inside the top 36, if I'm remembering that number right, Kyle, of just knowing 100%.

That not all three of those guys can pay off. That's been everything about the argument against Rome. And it was, you know, betting on Keenan Allen who has been, was still great last year. He was still an elite player. So that's just the question. If Keenan Allen is the one who falls apart this year, yeah, Rome will be fine. It's just a matter of

All three will not. All three will not pay off that ADP. That's for sure. I think he's talented for Dynasty. I love Roma Dunzay. What he showed this preseason is he's legit. He's very good. I still, for redraft, do not believe. Roma wasn't built in a day. It's not going to be built in his first. Busted. You're giving me a busted? I didn't even stop for a moment. I'm with the busted. Okay.

Well, I'm a big fan of Rome, the city. Mike's a fan of Rome, the player. So the thing is, is he is going to be right now to start the season. We just got finished talking about how important starting the season is. He projects to be the third target for a rookie quarterback. And I wanted to bring up Caleb Williams as my takeaway from this preseason because he had a couple of plays. If you're just looking at –

If you're scrolling Twitter and you're looking at some of these plays, the deep shot to Roma Dunzey down the sideline, the one that was to Dunzey in the corner of the end zone, which should have been a touchdown except Dunzey was stepping on the out-of-bounds line, you'd be like, holy moly, this guy is so special. It's everything he was drafted to be. If you watch the whole preseason game, you go, oh, he did nothing. It was just three and out, three and out, three and out, three and out for the first half.

right up until halftime when he had that final drive that worked. And so I think you're going to have speed bumps in the road. And it's what Mike talked about right now. Rome is the 33rd drafted wide receiver on

on sleeper. I mean, he's ahead of Jaden Reed, ahead of Xavier Worthy, who's like another rookie who maybe he's the third best quarterback, but he's playing for Patrick Mahomes or Calvin Ridley. Like, are you taking Roman Dunzay ahead of Calvin Ridley? Because he's going way ahead. No, my argument for Rome is more that the drafting of talented rookie wide receivers late in drafts, as Flyers has paid off for me in years past. But he's not late.

Not late enough for your taste, which is fine. But I think in some leagues he will be late. And I also, you know, you do want the guy that if he starts going out there in two wide receiver sets all the time, he'll make an impact. If one of those two guys goes down, he'll make an impact. So at least keep your eyes on him. It's not a prescription for reaching.

Yeah, I would agree. When you bet on talent, the wild world of the NFL happens. Injuries happen and you go, well, the reason that guy works is because of injury. Keenan's never been hurt before though, right? But it's not just like, oh, an injury ahead of him made him good. It was he's got to have both. You've got to have talent and opportunity. I would probably be even more hesitant if there was a history between Caleb and Keenan as well.

The fact that Keenan is coming over from another franchise and they haven't played together helps me a little bit, too, in terms of Caleb picking his favorites. But we'll see what happens there. Mike, you've got another player on the Broncos. Sure. Yeah. Look, there's three question marks, but it is.

Tim Patrick, Fireball Jones back from the grave, missing multiple seasons in a row. He's fresh, Mike. The legs are rested, very, very rested in rehab. And there's a chance that Tim Patrick just ends up being the best wide receiver on the Denver Broncos this year.

Does that mean good things for fantasy football? I don't know. But I thought it was worth highlighting where we're trying to figure out these wide receiver situations. And the other one is I have to bring it up yet again, and I hate it. Do you want the boo? What do you want with this? Oh, yeah. Can I get some boos? Say it. Yeah, taste some Hill. Oh, that's a groundswell of boos. Taste some Hill. Dude.

The New Orleans Saints are infatuated with Taysom Hill. Not so much winning football. They like gadget guys, but they love Taysom Hill. There was a report, I think even before the game this past weekend, of

of a beat reporter saying, hypothetically, if you tell me that Taysom is the second leading rusher for the New Orleans Saints, I will not be surprised at all. He's going to get goal line work. He's lining up literally all over the field because they're using him as a true gadget player. They don't have anybody else. They don't. Which...

An argument for another day, it is simply if you're playing on a platform where Taysom Hill is tight end eligible. This is not a call for the platforms where he's quarterback only. If you can put him in as a tight end, it's going to be more of the same of huge, huge spike weeks. A lot of weeks where there's just absolute nothingness, but he will have spike weeks. He'll have multiple top five weeks. All right, other news. The Raiders have...

Named Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback for week one. Let's go. Wow. That's a fist bump. That was an aggressive fist bump. Yes. Did you hear? You didn't hear? I didn't hear what? That it was Gardner Minshew? No, I heard that. I heard that.

Oh, that was the fist bump. Sometimes it's about the other options, though. You really hate Aiden O'Connell that much? I think Aiden O'Connell's a better player. I think Aiden O'Connell stinks, and he'll never be good. Well, I think they both kind of stink. Gardner Minshew gave us Michael Pittman last year. Yes, that is the best argument. Yes, the fist bump is merely for those who are drafting and believing in Devontae Adams. I think this is a much better situation. Brock Bowers?

Yeah, everyone. Jacoby Meyer. Anyone who catches a pass from a quarterback who plays for the Raiders, I think this is a much better situation. Well, and we'll really, I mean, what is the opening four weeks for the Raiders? Can you, I mean, what does that look like? Because if you have a quarterback situation where a change can happen. So we got Chargers at Baltimore, Carolina.

Cleveland. Yeah, this will change. This will change. It neither looked good in the preseason. The accuracy for Gardner was awful. Minch is a gamer, guys. But the only thing that I'll say is that Adams wants AOC. So...

Adams is a loud man. So maybe they're sacrificial babying Minshew in those games. They could be. Or the Raiders just want to do everything they can to make Devonta Adams mad. If you're in a... They are knocking it out of the park. All right. Yeah, so we'll Minshew for now. And then Jalen Warren missing multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. This one's big.

He is still in question for week one. He could be back out there. I made some very small tweaks to the distribution of work just based on him being potentially limited in week one, but it's unfortunate, the injury. And then we got word that DeAndre Hopkins with the knee sprain should be back soon. The team is hopeful to have him for week one in Tennessee. Good for Will Levis to have DeAndre Hopkins back out there. Lord knows we don't want to pass the ball to Kyle Phillips and Traylon Burks.

I don't think you're allowed to pass it to Traylon. Getting back real quick to Jalen Warren, I saw – I'm sorry, I don't have the – Kyle, maybe you could look this up. Their center got injured, right? So it wasn't just Jalen Warren, but I believe the Steelers – Their starting center did, although they spent, I believe, a first-rounder on a – or a high draft pick on a center. Yeah, okay. So it's just unfortunate injuries to start the season. Sounds like they need to dump it over the offensive line to Pat Fryermuth, Andy. Yeah.

He won't be on the field, though. So who are they going to throw it to when he's off the field? MVS, who left the second preseason game with a neck injury. X-rays negative. I don't want to say I don't care about his injury. For fantasy. It does not factor into my thinking about fantasy football, his injury. Let's put it that way. Did you guys see the news on Brandon Ayuk? Me neither. Come on. Oh, I see what you did. This is taking too long. Just sign something.

Anything? Just sign some facts. I don't care. Come on. All right. That was today's News and Notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. We're going to take a break and jump into some breakouts.

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footballers. Terms and conditions apply. You need to hire. You need it indeed. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. It's football season and Uber Eats is dropping undefeated deals on all your game day favorites like Little Caesars. This week, enjoy buy one ultimate spream, get one extra most bestest pepperoni pizza free from Little Caesars.

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Oh, same situation. That is the news. That is the news. Yeah. A thing that is forgotten in all of the hullabaloo is the 49ers control the contract of Brandon Ayuk for this year. He can literally just get to the beginning of the season. Just play. And play through the contract. Like, that has been one of the outcomes. This is just Punxsutawney Phil coming out like, any news? Nah, no shadow. Go back. Man.

Matthew Stafford is back in pads, back in practice. That's wonderful news because I love drafting Rams, and I don't want them if Stafford's not there. No kidding. Did you get to see the little conversation between Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan about the Rams? I did, yeah. The Rams trading for Stafford? Yes. And how Shanahan and the 49ers were interested, but they thought they had another day. Uh-huh.

I mean, it sounded so fantasy football to me. It was great, but it also, like, the thing that was revealing to me was when Shanahan specifically said, he's like, yeah, you know you like a guy who's good until you actually, like, dig in and spend two weeks deep diving his tape and you're like, oh my gosh, this guy's really good talking about Stafford. Loved, like, this was totally McVay poking the bear because he was like, hey, Kyle, how'd you...

How'd you feel about when we traded for Stafford? Yeah. And then Shanahan talking about it. And then Shanahan getting a text late at night that's like, if you want Stafford, you better call him right now. And he's like, oh, right. No, based on my information, I got some time. And then signed. Yeah. Yeah, that's wild. It's funny. It's kind of how when we make trades, Jason, sometimes I'm like, who got Tank Dell? How'd you feel about that trade I made? Yeah. Yeah.

Breakouts. All right. You can see all of our consensus breakout picks in the ultimate draft kit at ultimate draft kit.com. Today, we're talking some individual breakout picks players that could become that fantasy darling or superstar or game changer that we individually have some strong convictions about. We wanted to share them with you. And, um,

I'm going to let one of you guys go first. So it looks like Mike is getting the call. I will jump in. And we had the conversation earlier about rookies are a good bet for fantasy football. This year is a little wacky because you have Marvin Harrison, Malik Neighbors, and Romo Dunzey all being drafted way higher than rookies normally are.

Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars is being drafted exactly where we want him to be drafted, which is on sleeper as the wide receiver 46 in the middle of the ninth round. Other platforms, he's going even later.

It took a while for things to start percolating for Brian Thomas over the offseason. I mean, well, he was a really high draft pick, 23rd overall. He was the fourth wide receiver. He's coming out of LSU with Malik neighbors. It's like, you know, these two, they're buds and like talking each other up.

As the noise had been building here for Brian Thomas Jr., Malik jumped on social media. He was like, yeah, I'm not surprised at all. It's just let's all remember how we got to where we are. 17 receiving touchdowns last year. That's the most at a Power 5 school since Devontae Smith in 2020.

Like he was, he killed at the go route. I loved, you know, just taking pot shots at him. Cause when I was watching him, I saw a lot of basket catching. So I was calling him basket catch Brian, which was, it was not taking away. I didn't like that. It was not taking away from the player. It was just like, Hey, here's something that you could absolutely improve on. But it's, this is all about ADP and the situation of Trevor Lawrence may not be

the golden God that he was promised to be for the NFL and for fantasy football, but he's still fine. He's still a quarterback that I would like my rookie wide receivers playing for. There's a bunch of really crappy situations out there. Gabe Davis got the money.

We'll see if he actually gets the production, but the drumbeat of Brian Thomas from nothing, nothing, until just a real steady ramp-up of he looks unguardable, all of this, and just comparing him to the other rookie shots that I could take. Like, Lama Conkey, great player.

Didn't have the draft capital that Brian Thomas had. Doesn't have the offensive situation that Brian Thomas has. And they're going kind of around the same spot. So to me, Brian Thomas here, he's like a go-to rookie that I think you should be trying to get in more drafts than not. This is a great comparison to Rome Adunze. They're both great players. Even if you think Adunze is better, you talked about earlier, you like taking a shot at talented first-round rookie wide receivers late in your draft.

Odunze is almost all of that, except he's not late in your draft. Brian Thomas Jr. is all of that. He's a ninth-round pick on average, and that's great. Yeah, I was a huge fan of the collegiate film for Brian Thomas. And I was really – we got a –

a whiteboard in our main office where the three of us work and we jot down early my guy thoughts and Brian Thomas was on the board for a long time, but I was disappointed by the camp buzz and it was nice to finally see some stuff coming to light. The opportunities right in front of him. Yeah. And 29 rookie wide receivers have been drafted as top 50 guys in

60% of them have exceeded their ADP expectation, being the ADP expectation is where you're drafted. Do you fulfill that? Do you get the points that that player normally scores? And, I mean, guys, LSU has been wide receiver U here, giving us –

Just true elite, elite players. Malik Neighbors looks like... And also TMJ. I was going to bring it up. Terrence Marshall. That was always my fear. First round LSU wide receivers. Thank you. Their hit rate is currently...

Very good. Yeah, no, no question. Jason, time to shine some light. All right, I'm going to talk about a player going only one round ahead of the rookie dart throw of Brian Thomas Jr. This was a rookie last year who actually kind of almost broke out.

And unfortunately, he's going to miss the first half of the season. I'm talking about Rushie Rice, wide receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs. Oh, wait. It looks like he's not going to miss the first half of the season. Season's about to kick off. We have no news of an impending suspension. The NFL often lets legal proceedings go out, carry all the way through before those things happen.

He is so low in ADP, it would not have happened this way if he didn't spend the entire offseason with the assumption that he is going to miss a big chunk, probably not going to be there to start the season. So no one drafted him. He became a late-round pick because you just didn't know. Well, now drafts are right around the corner. People are doing drafts this week, next week. And he's sitting there in the eighth round on sleeper. Rushie Rice, if you look at last year, rookie season.

He came along slowly. The first part of the season, the first nine weeks, they had their bye week in week 10. The first nine weeks, he was involved. He was a package player. He was out there a little bit, targeted on 13% of his routes,

Once the bye week hit, he became a full-time player for this offense, targeted on 25% of his routes. He overtook Kelsey. Remember how Kelsey had this great first half of the season and kind of a really lousy second half of the season? Well, it was inverted with Rushie Rice. Rushie Rice became the number one target for Patrick Mahomes in the offense. How good was he? From week 12 on, he was the wide receiver nine in points per game, 14.9 already last year.

He averaged 9.3 targets, 7.2 receptions, and 86 receiving yards. If you extrapolate that out, just in case you don't realize how good those numbers are, that would be 122 reception season. That's what he did the second half of the year as a rookie once he was a full-time player, and now you just look at all the camp reports.

He's the dude. Like, he is the one. I'm excited for Xavier Worthy. I mean, I'm really, really hot and bothered for Patrick Mahomes. I think he's going to be the number one quarterback in six-point leagues this year. The offense should score a lot more. I think he's got more weapons. But Rushie Rice...

is really good. His yards after catch was unbelievable. 70% of his receiving yards came after the catch. They manufacture him good touches. He's on the field. He is the number one target, I think, in this offense. I think it's not inconceivable to say this season he will out-target Travis Kelsey. That's within the very clear path of

you know, believability and he's going in the eighth round. So if that happens and he's the number one target for Patrick Mahomes going into his sophomore year in the eighth round, that's a breakout to me. The last report we had on the legal situation, because it's still, it's still going to hang as a, not, not something that should drive him this far down in ADP, but it's going to hang as a risk factor that you're going to have there. The last report that we had was that the NFL had not yet met with the chiefs or rice or,

which means it's very unlikely that the disciplinary case will be concluded at least by the Thursday night football kickoff game. And they don't normally put players on the, what is it, the commissioner's exempt list unless those have generally been reserved towards like domestic violence situations. So right now the legal matter is kind of just TBD and legal,

It was an aggravated assault and collision causing bodily injury charge, and then he had the assault of a photographer, but the photographer did not. I think that one went away, right? He did not press charges. So that one is not. I mean, that can always be. Again, the league can still rule on that. Yeah, because it's the personal conduct policy. Because we have not talked about that situation in so long. We're just kind of sitting here in ambiguity. That ambiguity is leading towards him playing right now.

And whether that could mean a midseason problem, I just don't know. Yeah, I mean, look at whatever it was yesterday or the day before their preseason game. He had four receptions in short work with Mahomes. Yeah, everything about Rice has only been, the concern has only been for the legal situation and possibly missing games for me.

Yeah, there's no other reason that you would even worry about his involvement. It's wild that he has gone to the eighth and it hasn't really trickled up. He felt like a player that made sense at the beginning of best ball drafts are happening, these types of things. But then, as you're getting closer to the season, I would have thought he would have slid up here into the sixth, maybe even the fifth round of it becomes –

It becomes worth the risk for your team that this player, he's going to be great. I mean, he is a top 20 type of wide receiver to me.

but just has this risk of maybe he's going to miss game. So if you can get him still, even in the seventh round, I mean, that's an unbelievable steal. All right. Speaking of the seventh round, my breakout pick is Brock Bowers, rookie tight end of the Las Vegas Raiders. He is going in the late seventh round as of right now. Are you a Minshew guy or an O'Connell guy? I believe that O'Connell affords us more upside if he matures and is able to do what he does well. Um,

but Minshew is more stable from a week-to-week basis. Bowers is an 11th-round pick on Yahoo right now. And Brock Bowers is, again, we want to reiterate how I still think it's undersold how elite he was in college. He's the best college tight end we've ever seen.

He led Georgia powerhouse in receiving for three years. He had the most receptions by a freshman, not of tight ends, but you know, all of them like AJ green, he tied AJ green. He had 13 touchdowns as a freshman. This was a team that had lad McConkey and Adonai Mitchell and George Pickens and Jermaine Burton and James Cook and Zemir white. And these are all players on these rosters where it was Brock Bowers. So yeah,

Also the only two-time Mackey Award winner ever. So I think they're going to use him all over the field all of the time. You don't draft a player with the draft capital they did with Brock Bowers. I know the team, like, and not use him. And this team looked at it as an absolute steal. We were surprised he went to the Raiders. That surprise was from the Raiders as well when he dropped that far. It was a best player available. We don't

need a tight end desperately, but he's here. We've got to take him. He was only in line 39% of the time in 2023. This is a slot-wide receiver. This is a dude that can dominate in the screen game.

he is an athlete where the ball, if you get it to him, you're going to have a great deal of success. So far in the preseason, at least in week one, nine out of 14 snaps, there were two tight ends on the field. He had 11 snaps lined up all over the field, five in line, three in the backfield, two out wide, one in the slot. I just think that Brock Bowers, this is a cream rises to the top. And at tight end, the nice thing is that a small amount of

of great plays is enough to make you better than most tight ends in the game. And you don't want to put your bet on, okay, he has to score 12 touchdowns to be successful. He has to be Kyle Rudolph around the goal line. Like the athleticism of Brock Bowers to me and why he is enticing is because two plays, right?

Can be enough at the tight end position. George Kittle-esque. Absolutely. Kittle's a great example. Mark Andrews, we saw him very early on making big, high yards per catch plays. Bowers, all reports have been he's an uncoverable player. He's a mismatch on everybody that tries to line up on him. You don't get DBs on your tight end very often, and if they are, you got them. They're tiny, and he outmaneuvers them, and a linebacker's too slow. So I just think Brock Bowers breaks the game.

And his draft capital would have been a lot different if the situation was a lot more attractive. Yeah, so I am a staunch opponent of drafting rookie tight ends. I'll take my L on Sam Laporta, but that wasn't the one you drafted last year anyways. That was the one more often you were picking up off of waivers. You drafted Dalton Kakei too high.

When I look at Brock Bowers, I agree with everything Andy just said about the actual talent and the ability, the prospect himself, and the concept that he could end up having a special season.

could end up having a special season to me is totally fine if I'm on Yahoo and I'm in the 11th round. He can be my tight end. I don't usually draft two tight ends. I don't want to do that. He's the exception. But if I'm looking at all these platforms where he's in the 7th, I mean, he's going ahead of...

Just, I mean, some of the guys we just talked about that, you know, that we have as breakout potential candidates, really hard for me to take him there. So I think he's platform specific for me. I would love to, I would love him to break out. It's just tough when you go, okay, the Aiden O'Connell, Gardner Minshew,

You know he can't be the number one target. That's impossible with Devontae Adams there. He could be number two, though. He could. Jacoby Myers is there. He's still one of two tight ends. He's sharing a little bit of tight end duty, kind of the Dawson Knox issue for Dalton Kincaid last year. It's just too costly in the seventh for me. Andy, where are you at with Brock Bowers? He's a breakout pick for me. Okay. Specifically talking about you're drafting on the sleeper platform because in ADP he will be showing.

So right now in a half, he's going at the back of the seventh. Then David Njoku and Jake Ferguson are just a couple picks after him. Are you – I would rather have – Your level of confidence, is it taking Brock Bowers before those guys? You're good going into the season with just him?

I'm definitely good going into the season with just Brock Bowers as my tight end and just starting him and seeing what I've got. I feel like the, the, the bigger comparison here is, you know, Kyle pits, uh, two to four rounds higher than Brock Bowers. When you talk about athleticism and upside in an offense, uh,

And Ferguson, I still think, is going to be somewhat touchdown dependent. Yeah, he will. And if you are out on Voldemort, then this is your pivot option. I'm looking at ADP comparison here at average position overall on our ADP comparison chart is Nojoku 806, Bowers 905. So ninth round Brock Bowers with a bunch of cap tight ends behind him in the draft, it might be your last shot at taking somebody that has...

kind of explosive weak winning potential, not just like four or five points a game potential. But I know you guys like Ferguson a lot. That's just a belief in the offense. And, you know, they don't have a lot of weapons. I don't have any problem with that if you want to wait on him. So we'll take a break. We'll jump into some mailbag.

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service rocket money has over 5 million users and has saved a total of 500 million in canceled subscriptions stop wasting money on things you don't use cancel your unwanted subscriptions by going to rocketmoney.com slash footballers that's rocketmoney.com slash footballers rocketmoney.com slash footballers let me ask a question though before we jump into mailbag jason yeah

You're very vocal about your tight end rookie situation. Don't do it. Even though Sam Laporta was the number one tight end last year as a rookie. Yeah. So in the last one year. In the last one year. A rookie led the NFL. Yeah, the number one rookie drafted last year was a bad pick. Anyways. Okay, go on. What's your question? My question is that.

Is this something that is now kind of like tattooed on your skin? Or is this something where if Brock Bowers comes out and gives you a top five performance this year, that this narrative is going to become different? No, it's certainly something that would change. This is, you know, if you look back at how we drafted 10 years ago versus how we draft five years ago versus how we draft now, things change. The NFL changes and we adapt. We always say on this show,

You want to stay water. You've got to be able to change. You don't want to just have everything in stone. I used to never be willing to draft undersized wide receivers. They didn't work for fantasy. Now Tank Dell is a my guy because the NFL has changed. Thankfully, I prefer when it's easy and you don't have to adapt to change. And thankfully, that will be what happens this year. Okay. Into the mailbag we go.

Mailbag. Very nice. Juan in Toronto. Oh, bonjour. Started three wide receivers, full PPR. Devontae Adams or Derek Henry? Ooh. So it's a three wide, full PPR. I think you go Adams there then.

Has your opinion of Adams because of Gardner starting, Mike? Is there any adjustment to your rankings? I haven't moved him, but I believe it will be more consistent than if it were O'Connell. Adams is a really interesting discussion, in my opinion, in general, because we've had a lot of conversations this offseason around where Justin Jefferson belongs in drafts because of confidence in his quarterback and the team in that situation. If you pull NFL players...

And one of the reasons we rest on Jefferson being fine is he's the best in the game. If you pull the NFL, the answer is Devontae Adams. That is the answer from NFL players by majority, is that Devontae Adams is the best wide receiver in football.

And so we look at it through a slightly different lens. We look at longevity and the age and dynasty and all of that stuff. But I think the NFL still looks at Devontae Adams as a top. If he's not one, he's two in the eyes of most players. So when you look at that argument of, well, talent rises and it works out. I mean, for him to do what he did last year with how catastrophic the team was, it's risky with the age and the age cliff, but at the same time,

I wonder if some of the same upside exists in believing in the talent. Yeah, it does. The talent is there. I think we have the data, right? The top 100 players, whatever. Tyreek was number one, so I don't know where Devonta Adams went in, but he's awesome. And I've talked down Devonta Adams quite a bit from where he's being drafted just because you're older, you've got a quarterback issue, even though he was the wide receiver 11 last year. It was very inconsistent last year.

But that doesn't mean Devontae Adams is a bad pick. My answer to this question, if I'm playing a three wide receiver full PPR, I'm on the Devontae Adams side, and you know I like Derrick Henry. This isn't me saying Adams is worthless. This is just me worried about when he's going at that one-two turn area over some of these younger up-and-coming wide receivers. Either one of these players, Adams or Henry, could be at their end, and we just don't know. I don't want to hold the bag with those compared to younger guys.

All right. Gio in Baltimore wants to know one point per reception keeper league. Brees Hall in exchange for their fourth round pick or Kyron in exchange for the 15th round pick. That's fun. I'm Kyron. That's too big a gap for me. Fourth rounders are still really fourth rounders right now. If I were to read you the fourth round by ADP.

You would be giving up a Diggs, Jacobs, Devontae Smith, Lamar Jackson, Malik Neighbors, James Cook, Joe Mixon, Rashad White, Trey McBride. It's hard to attach one of those names with Kyron and not accept that trade for Brees. Yeah, if you were to trade Brees Hall for James Cook and Kyron, I would do that. There's a world where Kyron... But I'm not sure you'd do that with Malik Neighbors in...

I mean, it depends on obviously who it is, but there are fourth rounders there that are worth it. It's a worthy, I mean, there is, Kyron outscored Brees Hall last year on a points per game basis. So if they're both healthy this year, he could outscore Brees Hall this season.

Yeah, the drumbeat on Braylon Allen is still very, very... Yeah, my dude. Yeah, I mean, he's profiling as a bona fide... As a tank? ...backup running back that should be drafted, especially by Brees managers. Obviously, Brees would have to go down for this to factor in. I have zero concern about Brees' workload, but it's nice to know the hierarchy, right?

What's crazy is that every single year, there are multiple rookie running backs that are impactful for fantasy football. Usually multiple two plus that end up in the top 12. And this year, there's like no one that you're taking a shot on because they're all backups or...

Jonathan Brooks is dealing with, you know, he's not even going to start the season. So it's like, it's the weirdest rookie running back year I can remember. There's literally no one that you're drafting right now. Everyone is a waiver wire pickup guy when an injury ahead of him happens. Yeah, that is, it's tough. I mean, and maybe this will be one of the years where that's just not true. Also, you know what I mean? Like I know averages are averages, but it's always based on the real players and the real opportunities.

But injuries, I mean, injuries change everything. Yeah, it'll happen. It could be Braylon Allen in week two. You know what I mean? If Brees goes down, the confidence you'd have in Braylon Allen in New York in that offense would be great. That would be a full fab dump. Yes, it would. All right. On Tuesday, we're covering sleepers. On Wednesday, busts and values. On Thursday, we're debuting our take swap segment.

See how that goes. And then Friday, a mock draft. And Saturday, the Megalith Show, which if you're wanting to be there, it's ballerslive.com. Presented by Sleeper. Come and see us in Los Angeles right before the NFL season. And if you're not able to be there, it will be the Monday episode of the show. You'll be able to view it on YouTube and get that content that way. So that is going to do it for today's episode of the podcast. Shout out to the Deucers over there. We kind of left them alone today.

Looks like the Falcon is – Oh, he's here. Yeah. Must not have eaten today. See you. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.