US President Harry Truman prosecuted the war to its conclusion, finishing his predecessor's near-impossible task. Then, with bitter irony, History reversed his role as "anchor" for the Second World War into "lead" for the third. As the trilogy approached its near-miraculous end decades later, one could hear an echo of a Truman slogan - “Education is our first line of defense” - in the 1980s cartoon GI*Joe that averred, “Knowing is half the battle.” Both aphorisms are twigs coming off the "Knowledge is Power" branch. And the trunk itself? A tree of the knowledge of good and evil with roots stretching to the genesis.

More recently our physicists have been informing us of hard limits to our knowledge - uncertainty principles, incompleteness theorems - butressing Socrates' statement that, "The only true wisdom consists in knowing that you know nothing." Still, bounded knowledge is a poor excuse for apathy, and in 1951 Truman signed into existence an agency whose purpose was to prepare American citizens for nuclear war. "Knowledge is not only key to power. It is the citadel of human freedom," he said.

In this 27th episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider reveals that Truman's agency's most iconic result was that of a cartoon turtle named Bert. It may sound startlingly silly to the 21st-century ear, but educating citizens to turtle up, to duck and cover at the first instance of a flash made sense at that particular time. At least, up to the point when weapons, and thus circumstances, evolved. Similarly, the Federal Reserve's monetary policies made sense, up to the point when money, and thus circumstances evolved, which, coincidentally enough, began in Truman's time.

----------WHY----------
PART ONE: What can 1950s preparations for nuclear war tell us about monetary policy in 2020? Well, that some preparations - such as "Duck and Cover" - made sense, up to the point when circumstances evolved. Similarly, the Fed's bank reserves made sense, up to a point.... long since passed.

PART TWO: Beijing has reported dead quiet in its foreign exchange reserves. In the middle of THE most abrupt and widespread economic halt? It literally does not add up - unless bold assumptions are made. We look to what happened in Brasilia in 2013-16 and Beijing 2014-16 for answers.

PART THREE: What do the latest figures tell us about the world's most important consumer? Jeff Snider reviews retail sales, industrial production and asks what is it that is missing from our post 2007-08 economy that precludes robust recovery.

----------WHERE----------
AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY
Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ
Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO
Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh
Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB
Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa
SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK
PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt
PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr

----------WHAT----------
If Jerome Powell Has a Middle Name, It Might Well Be Bert: https://bit.ly/3c9UA0d
Duck And Cover (1951) Bert The Turtle: https://youtu.be/IKqXu-5jw60
The Contingent Hole In China’s Brazil Dollar Strategy: https://bit.ly/35PJGve
The Mysterious $100 Billion Gap In China's Payments Data: https://bit.ly/2FIAVZo
Another Key Economic Stumble In August Pointing Back At July: https://bit.ly/3cgPVJL
No Hole Puzzle, From Autos An August Stumble: https://bit.ly/3mCWknl

----------WHO----------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, who turtle waxes. Artwork lined with graphite by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Steps" by Cushy at Epidemic Sound.

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Duck and Cover