Bulls remain in charge
Data not important - down the road all will be fine
Seasonality - Race to the End
Check the Podcast Cover Design - trying to do all from AI generation through end of year.
Musk pulls a fast one

Markets

CPI and PPI - conflicting
Bank earnings - so far so good
Fed allowing people to look past negatives - rather to opportunities ahead
US Chips and Exports - roughed up market

Economics This Week

Import and Export Prices
Retail Sales
Philly Fed
Industrial Production
Housing Starts
Building Permits

Of Interest: NY Fed says median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon.

So inflation is a bit more sticky than

Recession - No Says Goldman

Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%

Seasonality - The Race until the end

Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur - so far so good - working just as planned. Almost...
End of year from here favors the bulls
Could have a few complications with the election right in between but electoral promises will be helpful for markets

Markets Worried?

Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis
NVDA, INTC, AMD in the crosshairs for Middle East
Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centers and the deep pockets to fund them
The new approach would set a ceiling on export licenses for certain countries in the interest of national security
ASML earnings miss (Stock dropped 16%) is a drag on chip/semiconductor sector

Fed Powers

Former President Trump on Bloomberg interview says Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped rates too much in 2020; says a president should be able to give his or her opinion to Fed on interest rates, but he or she shouldn't be allowed to order it

ELON - Pulling a fast one

Tesla had its Optimus robots controlled by remote at CyberCab event, according to Bloomberg
Also, reports that driver-less cars controlled by remote drivers in India (or somewhere)
Isn't that fraud?

Example of promises hitting the wires

Former President Trump will propose today making all interest on car loans fully tax deductible, according to Reuters
Former President Trump will also propose a 15% corporate tax rate only for companies that produce products in America
Former President Trump will also propose banning all Chinese autonomous vehicles from traveling on US roads (Special gift for Elon)** **

Consumer Confidence

Last Friday - confidence showed people less confident
Inflation expectations lower, but dropped 2 points from last month

JPM Earnings

JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a surprise gain in net interest income for the third quarter and raised its forecast for the key revenue source, even amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to fall.
Revenue from the bank’s Wall Street operations also defied analysts’ estimates, with investment-banking fees surging 31%, topping estimates for a 16% gain. Equity traders notched a 27% revenue increase.
Official: JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.50, beating estimates. The bank’s performance was driven by robust trading and investment banking revenues. This reflects a slight drop compared to the same quarter last year, when earnings were $4.33 per share. However, JPMorgan's revenues increased from the previous year's figure of $39.8 billion

Other Banks:

Wells Fargo also reported better-than-expected earnings, with a notable increase in net interest income. The bank reported earnings of $1.28 per share on revenue of $20.37 billion, showing a 2% decline in revenue compared to last year. Net income dropped 11% year-over-year to $5.1 billion?
BlackRock and Bank of New York Mellon are among other financial heavyweights that released their results today and did well.

Eli Lilly

GLP1 weight loss meds come off the short supply list by the company
FDA takes off too - which means compounding will not be available for this drug (Zepbound - Tirzepatide )
Compounding companies sue the FDA
Less than a week later, the FDA is reconsidering allowing compounding companies to continue production
WAIT - Doesn't Lilly have a patent until 2036?

Tesla Robo-Taxi Day - Follow Up

DUD - promises and nothing except a car growth no steering wheel or driver's cockpit (as we predicted)
Stock down 8% the next day as analysts seem to be getting bored with the story.

Boeing Follow Up

Now the company - (employees still on strike) - laying off 10% of their employees - 17,000
If cut to junk status, Boeing Co. will be the biggest US corporate borrower to ever be stripped of its investment-grade ratings and join junk bond indexes, flooding the high-yield market with a record volume of new debt to absorb.
S&P Global Ratings said it’s considering downgrading the planemaker to junk as strikes at its manufacturing sites persist, hurting production.

Social Security Recipients

The Social Security Administration has announced a 2.5% the cost-of-living adjustment for 2025.** - TIPs, SS payments **

CPI and PPI

The September Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), leaving it up 2.4% year-over-year versus 2.5% in August.
The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), leaving it up 3.3% year-over-year versus 3.2% in August.

CPI YoY)

China

China’s exports and imports both missed expectations in September, raising concerns about one of the few bright spots in the world’s second largest economy.
Customs data out Monday showed exports rose by 2.4% in September from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms, while imports added 0.3%.
Analysts had expected faster growth. China’s exports were forecast to have risen by 6% year-on-year in September in U.S. dollar terms, with imports anticipated to have posted a 0.9% year-on-year climb last month, according to Reuters polls.

Nuclear

"NEW CLEAR ENERGY"
Alphabet will support construction of 7 smaller US nuclear power reactors to help power artificial intelligence, according to WSJ
“We believe that nuclear energy has a critical role to play in supporting our clean growth and helping to deliver on the progress of AI,” Michael Terrell, senior director for energy and climate at Google, said on a call with reporters. “The grid needs these kinds of clean, reliable sources of energy that can support the build out of these technologies. … We feel like nuclear can play an important role in helping to meet our demand, and helping meet our demand cleanly, in a way that’s more around the clock.”
potential related stocks: VST, NLR, CCJ, SMR

Interesting

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway continued to increase its stake in SiriusXM now owning 32% of the New York-based satellite radio company.
The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate purchased roughly 3.6 million shares for about $87 million in separate transactions Wednesday through Friday, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission late Friday.

Kroger Again

Announcing additional 25,000 hires for end of year holiday expectations
Kroger Owns: ---Supermarkets – Kroger, Ralphs, Dillons, Smith’s, King Soopers, Fry’s, QFC, City Market, Owen’s, Jay C, Pay Less, Baker’s, Gerbes, Harris Teeter, Pick ‘n Save, Metro Market, Mariano’s
Multi-department stores – Fred Meyer --- Dillons Marketplace, Fry’s Marketplace, King Soopers Marketplace, Kroger Marketplace, Smith’s Marketplace -- - Price-impact warehouse stores – Food 4 Less, Foods Co

Bankruptcy and Closings

Wholesale hardware supplier True Value has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and is planning to sell by the end of the year to rival Do It Best.
Nearly 450 7-Eleven stores across North America are closing for underperforming, according to the company.

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DHUnplugged #723: Race To The End