The Strength In The Consumer… And Election Proxy Trades 10/28/24
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In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat and it's about the bottom line. Live from the new. York washington votes life in the zx market side .

in the heart of new york cities times where this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Consumer come back from retail socks to airlines. We are seeing strength today across consumer facing sectors.

Is this a sign that spending will stay strong through year end and banking on gains? Financial getting a bump today as interest strates hit more than three month? Hs, is there more room to run for these names? Plus afford flap after the legacy automatic ers disappointing guidance, taiwan semi slides as the chips are found somewhere they shouldn't be and back on the menu, mcDonald's brings back the quarter calendar as IT gets ready to release results tomorrow, I will only come to life from studios and s on the test night t more danaan guide nami and july bill.

And we start off with the holiday that seems to come earlier with every year. That is right. We are counting down to Christmas.

Forget about our we're looking forward seven days left in the holiday shopping season and a wide range of consumer face on sexual already feeling the Christmas cheer, X R T reti T F gaining more than a percent today. Bell weather names across the group like walmart dollar, gene lemon home deepa closing firmly in the Green. Even luxury names are back and vote with investors, at least today, caring, leading the pack of three percent.

Elsewhere, the travel trade continue to grind higher debt in united airlines, hitting their highest levels since before the start of the pandemic, while american southwest air each gain between three and four percent. So all these gains are signs of consumer resilience heading into the O O holiday shopping season. Guy.

no, is IT. Sandy.

I was santa.

No, really?

Yes, yes.

Hi, santa.

You're nervous because I know that is that bad.

S, I think you .

talks about .

the airlines is being trading vehicle's been right now looks like they are trading from the longer vehicles because a lot of these are broken out to the upside and delta, which the resistance service has been sort of fifty two, fifty three for a while. We're clearly through IT, through earnings if they are the jets c tf multi year high. So yeah, looks like especially a delta, which I think the all time high is sixty two.

You continue to play from the long side here. And I think it's out of that range, but doesn't make a commentary about the consumer. Not necessarily. I think it's more commentary about some men on right now.

I think it's delta in the broader airline space. Part of this really is finally working off a cover. A I mean, I think you've got an november investor day for delta that I think they're saving some goods for because you can't have an investor day without some good news.

But if you look at the stock, we've had a number of different updates, including capacity dynamics, which I think remain relatively constrained, and I think that's good. So call IT some type of discipline in terms of capacity and the airline sectors, very important. And if you look at pricing, they're pricing, they are holding up.

You've had some relief in the the trade of the last couple of days from oil Prices, but I really do think IT is about investors understanding the earnings ability of this airline, which is trading cheap relative to itself. And if you look back, this was on a five year or so, if you look at the chart going into covet, we know what happened in covet. Delt was the one airline that didn't torch their baLance sheet, and I actually think it's being rewarded. Now for that, I think it's going higher.

We only do an airline ds of the airline. Let's look at this one guys talking about e commerce at walmart. How would accelerated that last court? They reported twenty one percent.

anything? Take a look at amazon then if you're going into the holiday season. So if you think about on a multiple basis, once the last time, walmart and amazon on a Price to earnings have traded anywhere in the same neighborhood.

So right now, you have amazon in the out years that the next year trading at thirty two times double digit expected earnings growth and sales growth, there is a walmart that trades at thirty times and you're getting middle le digits growth. So if you like what walmart has been able to do, I think you are like amazon in retail. They're granted this week when they report it's going to trade on aw S, I like that's IT, but you might get an opportunity to kind of get IT lower and then think about IT into .

the end of the year. I guess the bigger, broader why are you laughing?

Because our director just texted Nancy something, and Nancy texted me something was very funny. I really .

like, anyway, the bigger question, the bigger question is, is the consumption in a Better place? This morning was watching a local news casts here, new york city, and they're talking about how the turkey dinner, thanksgiving dinner, is come down, come down a Price significantly this universe. Last year, july.

I'm a consumer in home and thinking, you know what Prices are coming down. I'm feeling Better, right? The fed is cutting. There's a little bit more election on certainty know as each passing day goes on. So maybe things are outs of bad.

I think everyone is gonna have a major style relief on the other side of this election. And consumers are the same and they are withholding a lot of their decisions even though it's probably not going to make a difference either way. What I think is really important to bear in mind is that we still have a cumulative impacts of inflation, and right, even though we can have incremental place is whether is deflation, IT still has been really pretty chAllenging, particularly for the low end consumer.

And so I think the place that i'm really interested in is absolutely walmart, but also, you know the dollar stores and anything that is targeting the low and consumer to get a Better sense of how they are feeling and how they're stacking up. They all have jobs, which is great, but it's important to know is that savings are not really need to be um and we are still not sure exactly what kind of holiday season it's gonna be. Have we been not nice? I don't know. I mean, I know what I am nice.

Well, mean, that's another show of thing.

You what we don't .

have dimension .

wallman t so goon sex just reiterated thereby despite the fact this stock, I mean, if you put a chance for the last year, I mean a paraboloid ve in the stock that doesn't move that way. And yes, it's an expensive stock, but I got to take something. It's wallwork ks world as well without a question.

And I think you can continue to sort levitate. There are through earnings and the feels is so this thing just wants to continue its rise to the mid nineties and they will have a conversation about whether not IT deserves IT. But the comparison between amazon and walmart at these levels in terms evaluation, I think it's it's a fair one for sure.

Think of the customer base that walmart has gained during this time of high inflation, theyve gained households that make one hundred thousand dollars or more. And the question is, you know, can they hold on to that because that they can hold on to that during this puri going forward?

That's a huge game, and I don't know that would and I think a lot of people have determined where they want to spend an extra dollar, where they don't. And when he comes to gross is going into place where, you know, you're going to at least have the same at least as cheap of an offering as possible. But the overall general merchandise mixed walmart is getting Better for walmart.

And I think about the investment that theyve made in technology and in loyalty and dynamics that I think they're really helping the multiple right now. I think you can stone walmart here too. I would just say this about amazon reports on halloween, guy.

But yeah, and I think the Operating income number going into that number, I think there's a negative sentiment there that I think could be a surprise. I actually think the AWS story is is fine. But I think from a from the e commerce perspective and you look across the entire spaces, you said same store sales. Third quarter, I think aren't Better. And I think that's something that the market is not fresh in.

Yeah, so go to the macro a little bit. I know we're going to get some data next couple of weeks. We look at the unemployment right? Member, everyone was talking about that sum all the bottom out.

What was IT three and half percent to fifty five years old? Here we are, four point one percent. But to july's point about inflation, yeah, it's come down.

They're still that community aspect of IT. And so I think there's a lot of like interesting stuff going on. But the one monkey ranch is this ten year yield going to from three point six percent to four point three percent.

And so I don't know that really matters who wins this election because I think the yellow, the yield trap and guys been talking about this for a long time. I mean, if we have increased deficit, you're going to have a higher yield than we've bottom out in the last cycle. So it's going to be an interesting time for the consumer, definitely. But also, businesses are waiting to come to see where all this shakes out before they make decisions, which brings me back to the unemployment rate. So I think there's a lot of stuff that needs to be answered, and I think it's about this clear moderate.

Now on metro, I will say I think as much as well appropriately concerned about the deposits and the technical dynamics of issuance and what yields ds can go higher. I think yells are going on higher because the economy is Better. I think the right here and now what we're talking about is a possibly a one three to five years story.

We've been talking about some of these dynamics. I realized they aren't getting worse as we going to election. We can talk about both parties um not being terribly focused on the deficit and talking about cutting revenue sources.

But I think this is all about the strength of the economy. I think this is about the strength of the consumer. I think this is a dynamic.

We're going into that fed meeting. And then the fifty basis point cut had everybody believing that the consumer was in a place they were not. And everything we're getting from jobless claims data, which I realized is lumpy and noisy and what not.

But IT is coincident, and there's no correlation of doing that in the labor market falling apart. So I think the movie yellow is really a function of where we overshot to the downs about the things we should all be worried about. And I agree with these guys about what's going on with the debt.

but I think this is about the economy. We've been here though before in terms of yields. So as long as says below, about five percent or five and quarter right now.

we've been on the way up.

on the way back down on the way. So you're write the point that out of points out, out as well. I mean, effectively, with nowhere now for the last, you're in a half or so with a lot of volatility.

But I think it's the speed of the move and the tims point IT comes down. Is rates moving hard as economies on firm footing? We get GDP on wednesay, I think, anticipated three point one percent? Or is IT more so because of all the issuance and the debt problems? I think IT listen, obviously the answer is, is always a combination of the two. Which ones more important idea towards the issuance in the debt problems?

Why yields ago? On last, i'll say next meeting for the fed november seven. I can't remember a meeting in the recent you know history where I could be I, me, who knows what that is going to happen here. The election might not be settled by then. And when you think about what yields have done in the face of that, if the basis point cut, I mean, this is going to be a death, there might be extreme voluntier ity in around that .

november seventeen, continuing their martire today, with the ten year touching a four point three percent level for the first time since mid july, that as markets increasingly expect the fed well soon pause, its right cut seem busy. Steve lessons got the details that was mentioning the timing of this terms of the proximity of the election. And perhaps we go into this fed meeting not knowing what the administration will be, but I guess the fed not political. So that aside.

I think that's right. It's going to be an unknown and we have a little bit of data between them. But you know rate cuts, we hardly new.

Ya no sutor had the market down in more and deeper rate cuts from the fed that is now betting on an actual january pause. The probabilities, ninety five percent probability for cut. That's where the market is Price right now for twenty five, another twenty five, seventy percent probably in december.

And then if those two things happen, remember that one is dependent on the next. There IT is a pause, forty six percent probability of a weight cut, which is to say a fifty four percent probability that fifty basis points of cuts later, the fed wool pause in january and the cuts in the cuts will they extend beyond january. Take a look back in september when fast falling fed funds fever, was that at speak futures market expected to funds rate a year from now of two eighty four or two hundred lower.

Now the explanation, just three sixty three of the market still sees a hundred basis points of cuts, but has died out almost eighty basis point ts from that expectation that expected change your heart from the fed, as you guys were just talking about, I would say link to stronger growth. We get GDP this week, maybe north of three percent firmer inflation. We do get a PC report on thursday, and IT comes with a lot of uncertain ty around the election.

You've just talking about that to the spending of tax polo, the two candidate. So if we have weaker growth, a resumption inflations decline and some sense of physical saturday from either candidates, IT could restore some of those expectations. But as you Normally a those are three very big gifts.

Yeah see in terms of the climb and rights that we've seen since the last fed meeting up, what's your take on what is feeling this and me to space on who you talk to and in your own sort of got feeling so many years of experience doing this because if IT is because the economy is actually Better than there is no basis for ninety five percent chance for a twenty five basis point cut.

I wouldn't say that molests. A I tend to think there is the ability the that does have the ability to lower interest rates because the rates were set to deal with essentially nine percent inflation and stubber inflation. We are likely to print Melissa a two point one or a two percent headline PCA number on thursday.

What is that? Well, that's the feds target. So we're going to hit that target. There is no reason for rates to be quite as high above neutral. I do think the market has the argument right.

I don't think IT has the number right, believe IT as the argument right, which is the debate is not about will the fed cut really near term, but really how much if that will cut over the longer or medium term. And I think this debate about what happens a year from now is really the bigger question. I could see the ed pausing, but look, I just read a report.

We're going to panthay on economics. See three and a hat percent go being printed on thursday, but then they see a sharper decline down into one A A percent if that happens, right? Cut to your back on Steve.

Tim, based on the move we're seen in some of the macro data and forget with the interesting markets have done, but do you think the fed they could go twenty five at that last meeting? They could. They would at this point. You think anybody feel like they they wish they had gone fifty.

fifty and I apologized. That should have been part of my response to Melissa, which is I think that some of the rehearing from some of the officials, a little bit of you, a regret on the morning after in the sense that they thought they might have should have done twenty five and then they would be freer to sort of do more twenty five in the future. But that big fifty, I think if some some fed officials additional pause given that firmer inflation number we had given those former jobs, jobs and growth numbers we've seen.

Thank you, Steve. Great to see Steve leeming, our next ga, sees a high risk market environment for the next ten days to kr cyc, head of equity trading strategy, joins us. Your own sets do great, have you? With obviously, the election is a big part of that. So how our position, how our investors positioning themselves.

but you know think the last couple of weeks, definitely investors lighting up on some rest can go into the election, not just the election as we talked about a forca parrots set. But ah I think it's he considered a big enough event. And I know odds and and polling moved in one direction the last couple weeks, but our view is this is basically a fifty fifty event.

And for that reason, I think you are seeing people kind of take on risk a bid. If you look at, put you on the S, N, P, is rising the Price of call options on the vxibus, on C, R C people with the reducing position, or overlying some edges with the big event calendar. Of us.

the risk is not necessarily who wins or who loses. The risk is not knowing. Is that right? Yeah, I think the river .

is not knowing. No, I think generally speaking, to talk to investors, they would like to avoid a sweep scenario. Know they know both both candidates have some, some policies that the market does not love. And if if you get a slit government, I think that you know most people kind of want and up at this point.

So we had the conversation tempting els, are you going on hier because I think it's a combination. But where you come down on this, I mean, they move six basis points in the ten years from the where we are now. I think they continue to go higher. Market doesn't seem to care right now.

The market doesn't care. I'd say it's probably seventy percent of the movies, I would say, come from the growth data and maybe an ancel apart from from the election. But again, in legal, people have to disagree on what that is. And that's why markets don't care, in our view, on yields for the last couple years. It's the way that matters. And I think we saw that for eighteen months before july, which is if you get strong economic data, positive growth, surprise rate cuts can pushed out, this rolling recession risk gets rolled into the future again, actually are are fined in that environment. I think that's why are seeing the .

performance we are. So actually pretty benie environment in your view after ten days from now.

Yeah look if if IT wasn't for the election, I think you would look at at the parole report, the GDP numbers. Inflation, I know was an upside surprise the last couple months, but Frankly, the fed would tell you were on a gradually you slowing trend on that side of things.

So yeah, I think if he wasn't for the election, probably have rescue put on if the election resolves itself in a relatively orderly fashion and and that might be a big given you as he was up before. But you know, I think there is rich to be added and the macro backdoor p is support of that. So it's a good set up into year.

And once we get past the election, talk about positioning. Then what's fascine to me is, first of all, that the financials have probably one of their largest overweight in a long time and they are breaking out. But I would go back even just to tech IT.

Seems to me one of your computor out they are saying underway is the widest levels in five years at month point three, driven by a lot of below mt benchmark positions in semis and hardware. That seems extraordinary to me and the fact the markets doing what it's doing. So comment either on the positioning or is this great news for the markets?

I I would agree with the sentiment. I'm not not sure if of the unger way, but but definitely, I think the sentiment onto or the bar for tech is lower this quarter than IT probably has been at least a year. We're if we seeing renewed interest, I think, in the software and internet side of things at the expensive kind of hard words and send me so the way you described that data, I think how we're feeling flows to go through this system.

And look, that's a positive. If you remember last quarter, you know you had any video put up thirty billion dollars on on seventy five percent of revenge. And I was because seven, five per the margins, I was sited to miss, right? So I think I do think the bar set a little lower this time. And I think that's that's healthy. You know, going to earnings.

We are talking with Steve about probabilities of a fed cuts. Does that obviously matters? But doesn't really matter if it's twenty five now twenty five, later pause now twenty five. And in the grand scheme of things, in the great scheme of and the ground gave .

the things in by not next week IT enough, we will matter. So look, would the fed take back fifty? I think in their view, they probably wouldn't.

Their view, I think, is they are very restrictive to begin with. They are convinced inflation is trending the way the way they wanted to. And I think they wanted gradually get themselves back in neutral and there's know where they're going to make.

They made a mistake other way. Um but yes, so I think look at twenty five basis point, you don't cut here. There I don't think is as beginning. So I think this this point is is a cute of number of cops that are Priced over over extended period of time.

But look, the markets expecting in twenty five next week, markets might get to get twenty five next week unless something really outlanders happens in the labor market did. And look, this labor market prints tRicky. You know our economy or only in ninety cay, you've got strike impact, you've got weather impact. You've a very low respond right to the last payroll report so that two fifty four from last month is going to get maybe not as much attention but significant t amount attention .

as well this time. So volatility definite. Stewart, thank you. Good to see you stuck guisa july, bill. What you're take on rates and when we should caring what I .

think is so interesting, right, is that if you had paid only attention to what the fed was doing and that's really what the market was doing, you would actually forget how strong the U. S. Consumer has been and how IT is just powered right over the top of anything the duran people can do.

And I think the same will be true. Both directions, right, growing up and going down. What really matters genuinely is just the health and strains of the consumer.

The thing that I wonder about with rate cuts is that I know that there is so much put up demand in a housing, and that is the place where the consumer has. Most of their wealth tied up. If they think that rate cuts are rate cuts are really on the horizon, there's gonna wait.

There's gonna wait even longer. If they think that it's going to take them longer, they may allow themselves to make the move ahead of time and wait to refinance. So I think those is that a dynamic that's a little uncertain?

I'm going to say a name to you, Melissa. Tim, please help if he has no okay, marine, a govern.

There's got to be a morning after, I believe. Is the song right? Gotta this this was not, but .

you've mentioned the .

regret the morning .

after .

after that.

Is this related to a trade? I thought you're .

going to talk about the I think no, the regret of fifty basis points is related to a trade because I think they're pigeon hold themselves. And I think if they don't move or if they do move regardless.

I think ten years are going higher.

I hope you know it's instance.

maybe they can pull a chart versus the ten year year vers p five hundred. So last time, I don't know, this spring, IT was four point six percent. The S M.

P was just about five thousand. Here we are. It's at fifty eight hundred years or something like that. And obviously, there was you folks who were convinced, ed, that they were going to go on this right cutting cycle.

Well, if rates are going up and they can't help themselves with what's going on here, I think the p is ably too expensive right now, especially right? Yeah, you can point to some of that growth, but is really kind of leveling off here. So if rates go higher, it's going to be a head winter. That growth also coming up.

We are driving into a big week of our all the details on fords lavis quarter, what the automatic er had to say and what is moving to stop next in china trade very chairs of taiwan semi falling after halting shipments to the country, what they found in a competitor span that could be cause for concern. Those best money returns back into.

This is best money with millican right here. Run C, N, B, C.

In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat and it's about the bottom line from the new york exchange, washington money, your votes, november abc.

Welcome back to fast. We ve gone earnings alert on ford. Shares are tanking as the company offers weak guidance for the year.

They're down by about five percent right now. They beat expectation on the top and bottom mines. So phillip o has been with the CFO in just last hour. He joined us down to break down all the details.

Fill analysis CFO. John lawler is now doing the analyst call. He is about twenty minutes into the call along with CEO jim farley.

They're discussing the quarter. And as you mentioned, IT was a mixed bag here. Yes, they beat on the top of the bound of mine in the third quarter.

Warranty costs are improving, though that will overall keep them from having higher earnings for the full year. And and then finally, there is the question of what to expect in terms of the full year. Uh, you but if they're now saying they're at the low end of the guidance, ten billion instead of ten to twelve billion break down the three divisions.

We've talked about this before. Commercial vehicles is really Carrying the water for this company. They earned one point eight one billion in the quarter, ice one point six two billion and the EV losses, that's actually an improvement compared to the second quarter one point two two. Here's john lawler from the closing bell. Over time, when we talk to them.

our top lines doing Better than we had expected on strong volume and mix, especially in ford pro pricing doing Better than the industry overall. We're also seeing cost reductions come out. We've taken two billion dollars a cost out in material, uh, manufacturing and freight costs as we committed to do this year, but we are seeing headwinds overall this year in both warned costs, an inflationary costs for our joint venture partner in turkey for auto sand, which raises the cost of our vans in europe.

As you take a look at chairs of ford over the last month, a couple of notes here won the q three eva loss per vehicle. The loss per evy that they sold, IT actually dropped under forty thousand dollars, is now down to thirty eight thousand, two hundred and fifty and improve. The trend is improving towards lowering their losses.

But when you look at overall inventory levels, right, none malisa. This is part of the reason the stocks under pressure ninety one day supply that is higher than ford would like, higher than people in the industry would like. Ford is still optimistic. They will have a solid fourth quarter of volumes are not gonna be terribly bust overall.

fail. Thank you. Feel about breaking down the ford quarter. I'm interesting. They just gave guidance in july. So this is deterioration, the span of a few months here. Guy.

would you make this? Well, what's happening, I think, is four to finally decoupling after a long time. And outside of Adams, jonas in gm was a forty to all Price target.

You saw a lot of analysts raised their Price target after the report earings a week or so ago. So what I make of IT is gms actually Operating Better, and ford, not so much. Fords been stuck in the mud now and gm is breaking out. So that's how I read this entire thing.

why I I think that the couple spent all year. I mean that it's fifty one percent of our performance year to day. And and some of this is ford continues to tell us that they need to restructure the business.

There's a lot of things that I just structure have been wrong about how they have been set up, and I think we're still waiting for more that. But again, as much as you said and back in your lie, ten, twelve billion was the guy now where at ten street was expecting. So from that, you were expecting to an happy on in the fourth quarter, now expecting one point nine.

These are big, big changes from a time when, again, if the problem is that the company hasn't really been able to forecast their business, this sounds like the same old story. So I love G. M. Here, and I think that is going hard.

yeah. So on the ford, I mean, pills just mentioned that the loss per vehicle, evie, is gotten forty thousand. The inventories are too high as interesting.

You guys watch the football right again. I used to I saw these ford commercials where they're talking about evs. They are talking about free installation and free fast charges to your home. IT looks like they're trying to get rid of that inventory. And I think once they do, they they probably move more towards these plug in hybrids and that sort of thing.

which seem to be the trick for the next few years.

So g four, I and by the way, the nypd are driving those things.

You see many cities like tric.

the ford mustain, moki.

They have nice and yes.

i'm SaaS pretty cool.

great car.

There's a lot more fast money to come here. What's coming up next?

Trouble in the semi space, the chips of one giant found where they should be, the peculiar processor discovery and what that means for global relations next. Plus about a week out from election day, and some stocks seem to be trading like there is already a winner. The name is making moves as both candidates make a final push for the White house. You're watching fast money lie from the last act market side in time square. We're back right after this.

In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat and it's about the bottom line from the new york exchange and washington your votes november MBC.

Welcome back to fast. Only shares of taiwan semi dropped today on a report that IT is suspending shipments to chinese chip design or south go, after one of its chips was found on a way AI processor a has been restricted from buying the technology since twenty twenty. This sort of underscores this close tie to china we've all been highlighting as a potential risk to the time one seme story.

taiwan semi, still probably cheap evaluation. And we've talk about probably when the five most important companies in the world the trades that way. But this is the risk that we talk about, unfounded, by the way, for quite some time. But you thought today at least a glimpse of the possible downside in all these semi names.

There are some reports to that that the CEO, no, I actually the founder, was quarter to saying, basically, uh, the free trade of semi has died july, speaking about these sort of trade restrictions all over the world when IT comes to where these ships can be sold at sea and that future growth could actually be chAllenged because of a do do you buy into that? Or is that just the taiwan semi story?

I think it's I think it's probably just a time once I me sorry for now, I think that highlights that you know the U. S. Government recognizes that these are really strategic assets, particularly in their applications for A I.

And I just doesn't want to be caught in a situation where that technology gets out of their hands. You know, I think it's been disappointing in china. Their ability to be able to create the semi duct market that we have is just really hasn't been possible for them.

And I think that there is a lot of recognition that this is a competitive advantage, not just for our companies, but really for our economy, broadly speaking. And so I think that the U. S. Government will crack down pretty on this to make sure that, uh, IT never happens again. yeah.

And so when we talk about all these kind of hot words that we have going on in the world, I mean, this economic war that we have, a china is really, I think these chips are are at the four front of that. I don't think it's going low down any time soon. So when you have this sort of behavior, we all knew I was going on for a while.

This kind of puts that sort of geopolitical risk as far as china in taiwan, I think, at the forefront right here. And so again, I think that lets see how this election shapes up. I think some of the behavior out of the chinese hope that maybe there's a continuation of the administration rather than one that appeared to be a bit more divisive of the last time trump is an office.

It's fascinating where if you look at the new headlines around time, once i'm including their Operating property and where theyve guided and again, where they had very positive things to and then suddenly had some questions around A S M L on their core business, I mean, taiwan, me outside of these headlines and these are big headlines, is the one that seems to be going along. I right now, i'm i'm by weakness in the coming up.

We are about a week away from election day, and there's been a big run that run up in some names leading up to the vote, how investors are positioning and tesla cyp to and truck media had of the results and financial socks leaving the s of five hundred today. What are traders make up the big bump in banks and fast money returns?

mr. Moment of fast catches anytime on the go followed a fast money podcast. We're back right after this.

Welcome back to fast money starts kicking off the week in the Green, the out jumping two hundred seventy three points. The S B N S like both up a quarter of a percent. Meanwhile, apple rising almost a percent as IT begins throughout its apple intelligence features, the new AI system coming to the latest iphone.

Some of the early limited features include writing tools, the ability to remove objects from photos, and I mesh summary I tool crude all in time, getting crushed in its worst day in two years after iranian energy facilities were unawed during israeli attack over the weekend, chairs a boy lower today, the company launching a stock offering that could raise up to two twenty two billion dollars as the plane makers machine strike lingers on seventh week here and some more after hours. Action shares a vf corp, surging after the top and bottom line beat the company, also declaring a quarterly dividend of nine sense of share, and book barn heading in the other direction, dropping after earnings came in, in line with expectations. The company announcing its CEO will be stepping down to take the home at raw stores and correct doctor pepper dropping after hours.

The company is saying jb hold selling sixty million shares as part of a secondary offering. Meantime, trump media shares jumping more than twenty percent of day following former president Donald trumps campaign rally at madison ine square garden this weekend, the truth's social parent closing at the highest level since the end of may. Other proxies for the trump campaign also on the move, tesla run by trump supporter elan musk, hinting its highest fifty two week, it's fifty two week hides before pulling back and bitti in also higher trump champions the use of crypto. So our crafty and clever producer, cava and SHE .

is termed .

an acronym T V D for the trump to, yes, very clever. Tesla, bitcoin and D, J T. SHE follow the rules to, by the way, I mean, this is seen, it's good as good news for investors as we get more clarity here is that becomes clear and clear. And it's a little less than a coin flip at this point. It's Better for the markets.

Well, I think the is certainly started to try to Price in some, some outcome here and and but that Stephen, what's gone on the T V D trade, I mean, I I would argue goals A T V D trade too. I mean, I think there's a dynamic here where I think people are concerned about, uh, dynamics around. We've talked about the deficit of talk about just some volatility on a global basis. But um yes, it's as we get close to the elections, I will say this for the market. IT does feel as if the market, which doesn't like uncertainty, feels like IT has some certainty and that is part of going on here.

I thought treasuries in the mix, again, we talked about IT. But I actually think regardless of the outcome, I think yells go high, I means treasury's go lower. But bit point to me is clearly trading on the back of a perception that former present tropics would be reelected.

Yeah, so it's you about the D. J. T. So it's got a nine point four billion on our market cap right now.

Fidelity marked its stake in twitter down to nine, four, four billions. So just think about that. Like what's going on between the the social media.

I think DJ t had less than a million dollars in revenue. So that is serving clearly as just a prediction market. And that's probably being sooth to some degree well.

big banks socks jumping to kick off the week with the financial sector leaving the S M P five hundred higher city group golbin sax, while argo bank of amErica among the biggest gainers here. July, would you make up this financial jump today?

yeah. It's fascinating to see financial leading as aggressively as they have been. We are kind of curious to see how the regionals talk about their books.

Most people are still a little bit worried about the commercial real estate exposure that's there. But these large banks are kind of powering through in a way that I don't think anyone really could have expected. I would say that if you look at earnings with large so far with I think we've probably got forty percent of the S M P.

That's reported. It's really been a little bit meet up aside from the banks. And so I think that's just what's driving the attention in the energy, just like them accepted at the begin of the year.

Yeah said he was a real outperformer.

Today's session IT was and I think the money centre banks overall, if you look at the big three that are not J P Morgan wealth fotos up twenty percent of last month. I look at this rally and again, it's it's banks that I think you're breaking out. You're now taking through that s vb low of may of twenty three. This has been a long time in coming. I think it's a combination of really the market are in, the consumer were in and I think IT continues.

Think you can add another couple turns on evaluation meter go and sex, which trades less than the thirteen multiple, mean, you put them up to fifteen to half sixteen and you talking about the stocks we training at all time high, and we've actually been somewhat .

constructive.

and I good .

for David salmon by the wake is under his new show. It's some private parties.

No one thing to guys point about the golden in the Morgan. I mean, if you think we've been talking about this, a lot of companies are waiting on M. N.

A. They're waiting on some other deals, the IPO markets likely to open up. I mean, that's where you want to be.

Well, I mean, especially after the election, we have some clarity we have a little more clarity on on interest rates to july. We should see those markets open. So we should see those line items in the businesses improve.

I agree. I think you we own a small as, which is a small boutique. And I think they've been talking about how swell and their pipeline is, and that's just one of those situations where they're waiting for more clarity.

And they a lot of companies want an understanding of who is going to be in charge as the president and also where interest strates are going. And I think at least we can get some clarity on one. You should see more deals coming to market because a lot of these private equity companies, their books are old, like the vintages on a lot of these deals. They really need to move them for their L, P, S.

Coming up looks like meat. On the. Excuse us as we just. Be mcDonald is resuming our sales of its quarter powder after rolling out ruling up the patties as a source of the echo I outbreak. How will last week stop way and the comes outlook answers next?

Welcome back to fast money. The civil is back at mcDonald as the fast food john, get ready to put this quarter pounder back on the menu. This is the company and sets report earnings tomorrow mornings. Cnbc, s kate Rogers has got more hate.

Millions a analysts are looking for E, P, S of three dollars and twenty cents on revenues of six point eight two billion for the third quarter form mcc Donald. Same source sales projected to foul globally by zero point six percent but increased by zero point five percent in the U. S.

Is key market international Operated markets, international developmental license markets, both projected to see, see sales drops rather at one point two percent in the quarter, mcDonald's executives last quarter had signalled the back half of the year would likely be chAllenging, saying consumers would continue to feel strap due to the global economy and also higher cost of living, particularly in U. S. markets.

McDonald, remember, extended its value platform through the end of the year with its five dollar meal. Is also expected to continue offering consumer some form of a value platform in twenty twenty five that has yet to be reveal. We will hear from executives on two key topics.

First, how the mic chicken launch is faring with consumers and more pressing, how the ecole outbreak has impacted sales trends so far. McDonalds, as you mention, set to start serving quarter pounder again this week in the nine hundred or so locations that pulled the item after and Operate tied to its slivered onions from a facility in coro. The burgers will be served without the onions as the investigation continues.

The outbreak did a second. More than seven hundred and seventy five rather killed one for the cdc and will likely have some bearing on consumer sentiment around the brain. The stock is down close to six percent since that outbreak class tuesday, up just fractus ally, you're to deep well the back over you very kate.

Thank you. Kate Rogers, no one on still on that baby um but still it's good, great. That is back in the mix and that's conventional alleviate a lot of concerns.

I'm not going to tell you that this isn't been a major event from accounts. But right now, I would say if IT is this contain dynamic, I think, you know life will go on.

And I realized there a lot of people that manufacture or I don't want to be callosal, I want to point out the stock because the sales numbers for mcDonald for this quarter are going to be their high since twenty fourteen with the consumers is under so much pressure and again, accompanies been able to hold margin here. So I would love to buy weakness. And mcDonalds right now, we're not getting IT.

And the real time and that news story came out, I think the stock was trading to ninety. And I was definitely concerned, an apprehension, I thought the stock could trade lower. Tim said to hang in there.

That was right. They handle this extraordinary ily. Well, mean, IT was textbook in terms of crisis management, good for them. So maybe IT sets up really well, but i'll tell you one that also report this week, look at shake shack on the move.

It's ad right up against the prior all time hide trading IT one hundred times next year's numbers with maybe thirty percent PS growth. This is the deep end of the pool. I think you have to do something in earnings and something to do is trim long positions anny those .

trading like you said, guy, fifty two years and IT looks like it's about to break out. And it's of interesting with tim said, a consumer that is obviously under a little bit of pressure. This is there's no value in their meals over there. So it's interesting that you have one going one way, one going the other at least. I mean, both these stocks, we're trading your fifty two week eyes also, but chick shack looks like if that's that's a beat raised, they are able to take some share that ones off the races.

International though should be a concern, I would think, from mcDonald and particular with its presence in china dc. When IT reported domino's pizza and reported reported weak .

international sales, it's amazing how we're kind of a given these companies that saw china's a growth engine and megas wasn't the first name came to mind, but they are getting a bit of a past here on the dynamic. I still think it's about U S. Same store sales are clearly um you know holding serve here and that's where I think the market gna take the accuse. I think right now we can give china past right coming up.

It's not all about the magnificent seven. The non technical our traders think you're still worth watching busy week of earnings that is next more fast money into.

Welcome back to fast money is big tech earnings week and will have more on that this week. But we are going to turn our focus to the other names reporting. We ask our traders for the one none max of a name they are watching. So guy, which one catapult me?

Obviously very economically sense. Look at the change of the stock over the last couple years. I mean, it's been lower left upright in a meaningful way, trading like a text talk.

You is reasonable, but you don't really have the E, P, S. Growth of the revenue growth to back IT up. And if the economy is slowing, the way I think IT is, I think, a first start feeling in a name like caterpillar. So the stock has been amazing, valuation is compelling, but this is the one to want to watch here what they say.

july, which are you watching, uh.

on halloween, which is coincidently my birthday, which nothing surprises people at all when they need me and definitely when I matter of them. IT doesn't surprise, but limit is a vassal. Lar company is a small cat business, really nice profitability, expanding margins, dividend. It's really well position. And i'm curious to see what they say about the health care market, which has been .

pretty choppy down on tupper .

thirty first, I hold .

and also out Angela's booth day booth deal.

I said you did there.

uber reports.

And this one is really interesting to me. The performance has been great. The stock gapped up. I mean, IT looked like a beautiful break out the day after the robot taxi event from from me on mask.

And I think the idea there was that they are not going to have a whole hack. A lot of worries about that thing coming anytime soon. Uber is partners with way more on that front, and they have a lot of trials going on.

This one has given all those gains back. So to me, I think this one earnings are inflecting is trained about thirty three and half times next year's earnings and they're going in higher, man. So to me, I think we were really, really interesting here.

Tim, you didn't play that. I came right. You you couldn't pick just one. You've got two or more.

I've got to I mean, want to be really quick on snap, I mean firework, you can be sure. I mean, the moves on this for the stock over the last four quarters have been nothing for the faint of heart, but it's keep moving in paypal, which is the p in by step. I think there's a story here where alex, Chris, don't call me Peter, Chris, guy and I gives the drama for kiss.

But this is a story, is a turn story, once a mega cap text doc. This is a story of improving margins. Ventus actually got new life.

There's there's deals with competitors. There's deals with amazon. I think there's a higher margin story. And I like paypal. I think it's going in higher .

gene Simons has actually been on the show.

Gene Simons has been all over the network. He's obviously .

member of kiss. Can you name one more member family.

family back in the your group, we all back in your proof.

and you know of the next final trades.

Final trade time july bo.

uh, you know I I really like mois here based on the of four mentioned.

Sam, S, D, lauter E, L.

looks like you're going have a new CEO. jane. Laughter will not be the CEO.

There's the market like that. It's not stand in the family, I think so. But who knows yeah.

we talk a lot about consumer target. Interesting to me that guided up a couple months ago when they reported comes to self get Better there. So that one in the holidays.

guy.

the show is created inspiration for tim's halloween costume thursday exam, really. So I know what you're going to be. This is baseball in the bronx. Onie, by the way, and kill I D continues .

to trade higher.

You know you're going to be, I don't really know.

but I may judge. Now.

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