Markets Big Week… And U.S.-China Trade Relations In Focus 11/8/24
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Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc Jessica, adding to follow and listen to C, N, B, C. Business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Life from the danza mark aside in the heart of new york at these times square. This is fast money. Here's what on tap tonight, a new milestone for the S.

N. V. The venture mark index crossing the six thousand mark for the first time, just nine months after breaking five k. How much more room to run for socks and can anything? The rail is rally and in china, set back from fears over new terrorists.

The stimulus of fail to impress the country facing a su potential issues is the run in those markets over over there. More opportunity to be had plus island's month to return on this election investment by the track matter things is time to sell apple. And are we in for a wave of mega mergers in the media business?

I will lessen come to your life from studio b and as I on the destiny de c or C K S and P R. With the recent week for market s five hundred crossing the six thousand mark for the first time ever in today's session, the closing just below that level. IT is up nearly five percent since monday.

It's best week in a year. The door hitting a record of its own today, topping forty four thousand. IT was incidentally the first day with invidia in the index in the only milestones, and aziz also hidden all time high during the session.

And even small caps are storing the rest of two thousand, putting in its best week since twenty twenty, closing less than two percent from its record. Of course, all of this coming on the heels of Donald trump s election win plus at porter point rate cut by the fed yesterday. So do markets now have the assurance they need to keep providing higher? Tim.

I I think we have a case if you think about the fed from their last meeting and where they were focused on the other side of their Mandate, which is the labor market, the job market, which looks fine. We even at services data this week, early in the week, that was fine outside of concern about where born yields start to worry equity markets. And we've had actually a little bit of a pull back will be the last twenty four hours in the ten years.

So it's not run away yields. And I think the markets, considering just how high yields can go in the short run, even if all this policy dynamic could be deficit and friendly and all the stuff we talk about all time doesn't happen overnight. So back to equities ah, the question really is what part of the market do you want to invest in here? Because I do think it's going on higher and I do think you've got a backup that's not just seasonal but a backdrop where I think there's a bit of a chase, I think before the election, the pain trade was higher.

I think you have a case where if you look at imagine small caps, so small caps outperform the S M. P. By nine hundred and a half percent since july tenth when you saw kind of a bit of that semi peak in the semi e conductor trade.

So the broader of the market that also absolutely been banks, but then this industrial trade that has some defense elements to IT. So anyway, I just think the market overall um has lots to consider. But I think if you look at where the fed may be in a place that they weren't back in september when IT seemed clear on rates, that really the story, and I think that's the seed power planted tomorrow. The is always the issue for the equity market.

Do not hate small cap s anymore.

I look, I don't think I ever said I hate small caps. I think I said something equally is idiotic though. Why are we even talking about small cash? There's no really I don't I don't hate anything or anyone, but I do think you have a case where there's always a lot to talk about small caps, and I think it's more because of what IT indicates about the both of the economy in the market. I don't think you have own small caps, and I think there's probably disproportion amount of time spent on small caps, but there's some really talented small cat matures. So let me dig myself out of this hole.

Plus over over forty percent of the profitable companies in the small cap universe, over forty percent are unprofitable. So not that he .

is .

family. Anyway, best week year for the markets. We didn't really give much backs.

he said about a year. IT took us to go from from five to six thousand. IT took us three years to go from four thousand to five thousand. So this was sped up dramatically. Clarity, closure, confidence, the market has all disco higher.

Is that that the next question, where do we go from here? I think seasonality, tim touched on IT seasonality is is very much of the corner of the bulls. If I had to pick my poison, I would like to see the market come back in a little bit. But IT really shows no signs of pulling back at all.

And there's also the bike dynamics. Historically, ten A A percent of annual purchases happen in the month of novembers. You've got that sort of working potentially for the markets too, mike.

Yeah mean, obviously, that's GTA create some measure of support. I mean, look, if if everybody agreed and I think we did that, if trump got elected, that was going to be generally viewed as a positive for equity. Maybe we didn't anticipate quite the same red wave that we got.

So that would suggest that the trump trade is effectively on a little bit steroid here because is basically more empowered, uh, to make the kinds of changes I think investors might have been looking for. So that combined with the season, combined with the buybacks that you mention and not a whole lot of catalysts st between now and the inauguration, that would necessarily be a place where we have caused to worry. It's hard to see how the market doesn't continue to go higher even though we are at relatively high valuations. IT should be said .

by away in your thoughts. You I mean.

like like everyone else said, you know you since you have a fed that's reassuring us in terms of growth, do you have affair that's reassuring us in terms of the unemployment in the labor market? You have them still saying, listen, where we're not going to declare Victory on inflation. However, we are clearly trending in the right direction.

And then you now have a regime in place that is you know likely going to be moving towards reassuring, moving towards definite, moving towards domestic production. I think the push back, I think tim or Steve maybe said earlier, is the deficit concern but essentially or some inflationary pressures, but those things are stimulated for asset Prices. So you know, it's really hard to to fight that trend.

I do think perhaps the deficit issue may come back to bite us, but that's probably something that you probably look at three to six months down the road once know. There's a little bit more framework around what these policies are going to be. And of course, you have the china war that will likely loo m its head and present risk there in idiosyncratic great ways.

But for now, and I did don't think that will laus, but for now, you at least have the fed and the regime in place in a situation where you're not looking to raise rates. Now whether that pivots might be the entry point where I start to worry about risk and risk assets. But for now, you don't have those those opposing forces at us. And until you do, I do think the trend is up basically right now.

We're a period where we can believe what we want to believe. We can believe the best of things. The best of the word is born to mention the on our side, it's not going to raise rates.

It's gona lower rates. We've got the regime in place. We don't know with the details.

We don't know the extent the actual extent of deregulation. We don't know the actual extent of any of the trump measures that he is. So we can just sort of think, oh, it's going to be pro market time. And so what happens when we're outside of this magical bubble that we're in, where we don't have the exact clarity we don't have to tackle, what does this mean for GDP? What does this mean for profits of multi national companies?

Is that a where we're going to and we're going to have to, to understand really where the growth is going to come from. And it's also a week where copper actually traded down five percent and well traded down four percent. So this doesn't send a great message about growth.

Some of this is an inverse dollar ate. Some of this is just a global dynamic. But I I actually think commodity Prices are probe going to go higher in the environment we're talking about.

But I I think for the equity market, there's no question you have to believe corporate profits are going to grow. And so the estimate for twenty five is somewhere no five, six percent. That number could go higher.

Certainly, that's the number we've had for this quarter of earnings. It's been a solid quarter. It's not been bombastic, but it's a case where I jack, I do think that the earning story, the valuation story with tons of liquid and look, this this is a trading show.

So i'm happy just to talk about the next couple of weeks even though you're right to ask the long term question. And in bondam was right to say I don't think deficit dynamics are entering into anybody picture as they're allocating a dollar towards the market today. And I think that's smart.

And just think about what we do, noto. We know where not taxi unrealized capital gains. We know the corporate tax that is going lower, not higher.

We know that individuals is probably either staying the same. So we know there's a lot of probe growth that's coming down. So we climb that wall of what we don't know. We don't know what the impact is going to be, but we know what's not going to happen.

Yeah, mike.

yeah. I think the corporate income tax thing is, is a good point. I don't know if it's going to come down, but it's certainly isn't going to go back up to the kind of numbers that they were previously talking about with respect to oil.

You know, it's an interesting thing here because, of course, I mean, we are at peak U S. Production you ever right now we are looking at in incoming administration that is generally going to be viewed as much more friendly to the oil and gas business. And I think one of the things we can take away from that is that we are the world's largest royal producer.

If we're going to be pushing on that, then if there was any hand capping that, there would be you some limitations on oil and gas production domestically. That concern has been alleviated. So that would that would actually help us understand why we see you oil and gas Prices dropping.

And in support of that idea, I would say look at the oil services industry within the energy complex. There are a number of names there that were up double digit percentages this week. So what does that tell you? It's suggest that you are going to see a real effort essentially to increase U.

S. production. So know you're looking at something like a slumbers j, you know, which is sort of the middle the pack. I think this week in terms of performance for oil service index, that really is focusing on basically the supply side driving oil Prices lower rather than the demand side.

Alright, for more what the fans next steps could be. We are joined on set by ban amen. He's fed watch advisors co C I O and founder and great to have you with us could be back. Um so what do you anticipate for the fed? Uh and what do you anticipate for rates because they haven't been behaving, so to speak.

No, definitely. As we've talked about this on the show before, right, IT definitely still looks like it's going to be higher a and lower. I think what happened today of this week, radio as a not only the ism services in that you said that was really, I think, a pointer rates to starting sharing higher that people pricing this policy.

The trauma has a basically blanket on because the red sleep is really giving him that then you can expect a GDP going to lift more higher, about three percent, maybe to four to five percent range in certain period of time. Interest strates, when not known only Normal rates for real interest strates. That combination that typically t look, say, said told me lots of growth being Priced in and then it's kind of taken back because for the fact this doesn't an that high growth means high inflation and indeed well made a note of the inflation expectation that we to watch that.

But the still in this mode of risk h management, right in a sense of we can, at the unemployment, go higher either and they keep their eyes on the ball. So my senses, this friend wants to maybe skip december, but keeps the optionality. Is he as even power more as sad to coverage is in terms .

of the move higher, that is a built on the notion that there will be just also suspending going on, especially in the trump administration. Is that view overstated in that um the guy who is now in the lead supposedly for treasury secretary basset um he and the other guy who was in the lead also john paulson they have been outspoken critics of spending of just over spending in land muscular in there he is the president you're obviously and he's saying you we can cut a lot of fat out of government. So you know do you think maybe we are just sort of pricing that in too much?

Maybe, I think two ways to think about IT. So you have the the government efficiency departments, as they call IT, you know, and they want to cut two trillion, enough of spanish as the number throw out there. If you take that number itself, seven, eight percent of GDP prety significant cut.

And if you look back in twenty eleven, when we made IT actually a law secrut ration, which was tempted GDP twenty twelve, the economist flat on his back. So there is there, you know, I think, a trade of here and for the treasury secretary to consider that, on the other hand, is the corporate x rates and lower income taxes that somehow have to be accountable. So I think where comes down to the next, next treasure secretary wanted you can ask to listen to this advice.

Comedian say, yeah, we're gona probably have to manage the deficit by issuing more long term bonds instead of all the t bills and and do that than I make, which dries up rates and trying to manage the deficit death way until we grow ourselves could be out of IT and that that's to be seen. I don't know that exactly, but I do think that the deficit is a key issue. This, especially to the security, has to dance. You think of the policy is really about pro growth. So to try grow out of the but the treasure secretary has to managed mechanically with with more maturity issues.

We've never had pro growth with this kind of deficit. And and again, it's refreshing to think about a treasury secretary that will do the right thing. And i'm not saying that either.

The two german mentioned. Wouldn't beyon that track. But but we all know that it's made a lot more sense to issue short and hold off on the law until the world comes down. But I want to get back to the fed that we had yesterday.

I thought I had people say that you know what? I think projections have change september and and where's their surprise for markets here that you have not affect that's ready to hike, but a fact that is done? I mean, I know you're luted to the kind of rather not do anything in december, but they're probably gonna. But I think projections have changed in what do you think?

Yeah, I think if if you think the statements and I took out the worth further in front of inflation, he dismissed that does not we don't want to give four guides, but I think markers did look at saying like you don't take that off for nothing is basically preparing on that. What's gonna en next year is going to change our projections and going have to start basically fact added into the scp on in december.

And I think that you see higher projections of growth, probably some would low for unemployment, which which what they want, but they cannot really reconcile with, with massive of rs against IT. I think this fan is moving towards this space of cuts, probably slow even based on our projections. I would think that stop loss shows the fewer cuts that would take projecting a septem ever be the change.

But the other thing that he did say that one of the last points they do want to get to neutral, not too fast. So and he did repeat that. I think that's still the case that they they want to drop ate so fast and that I think my that speaks in the projections. You're going to stronger growth outlook. You don't have to move the neutral to quickly .

then great to see you. Thank you for coming and emos of that watch. I think you're only .

as good as your last trade right in this business when you when your trader and power is going to be known whether or not he soft lands this economy. So this seems to be a different fed to me where they don't even want to allow the boom bus cycle of the economy where he's trying to totally avoid the recession. Whether or not he can do that remains to be seen.

but he's has any fed ever though I hear I agree with you, I said, ah we're writing IT. We're ready for a recession on the table. Yeah, they wanted to stop .

the economy when that was power. Whole idea about raising rates. He wanted to kill inflation.

So we had the economy as well. And I think he's figured out how to thread the needle to a certain extent. Now maybe he was even shocked. He was shocked there was no inflation when he first came in, and then he was shocked that he couldn't kill inflation. So I think he's gone around and around in the circle here. But he seems to be, well, I don't know what is next move is, but he definitely ly does not want a recession when we we used to be okay with IT. I don't think anybody .

knows what the next move is going to be given we don't know what the policies are going to be. In a sped chair, people said they they have to be actionable to what goes on um so in that discussion embedded in a discussion about rights and where they are headed and that is do you believe what the prompt administration will do? Will that be a inflationary or and or A B? Will will they just spend so much money that rates are going to go higher because we've got to issue a lot of debt bottom?

yes. So I definitely think it's likely going to be more inflationary. And I one hundred percent agree with the notion that no one knows what the next movie is. And I think the fed has essentially all but admitted to that, which is why they've reiterated that they're going to be dead of dependent. They're not going to make moves and adjust in anticipation of what policy might be.

I think for perhaps some of us, we after having them lag for so long with the first about of inflation, perhaps what i'm hearing is that we want them to be a little bit more anticipatory in terms of how they are going to approach monetary policy. But he's pushed back pretty aggressively against that notion. And you know this data dependant process, although perhaps a bit longer that he would have liked, seems to have steer us in the right direction. And I think at this point in the game is hard to to argue that perhaps he should be trying to make sense of what may be when january is still is not even here .

my um we got to go, but I I have to address the decline in the vx we've seen over this past week. That means remarkable decline, about thirty percent of on. And wondering what your interpretation is in terms of are we just are we overlooking the volatility that should be Priced into the market ahead?

No, I think one of the reasons the victims as elevated as IT was, was because of uncertainty going into the election and actually also just an expectation of higher than average h rates of correlation. And around the event now that we've actually seen IT come and go, you would actually expect this basically to happen in the same way that you see a ball crush coming out of something like an earnings announcement. First single stock.

That's effectively what this has been. I think for the broad market, IT IT was the big one for the year. It's come, it's gone. And I would not expect the kind of volunteer link to recur on this. We get some other kind of geopolitical .

event coming up. Tesla top in the one trillion dollar mark at the first time in over two years. C O, elan must support the Price, could help pave the way for the E D maker match plus slicing into apple, the capture and sitting on its this weeks post election rally and the technical maybe getting to the core of the conform, the details and fast money return.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm C M. C. Jessica, adding, follow and listen to see nc business news updates wherever you get your posts.

Welcome back to vast money test the crossing, the one trillion dollar market of the til today for the first time since twenty twenty two. IT is in nearly two hundred hundred and fifty billion dollars in value just since election day. That's quite a return on the investment elland must made on the present elect.

According to bloomberg, his networking k now top three hundred billion dollars tesla putting in its best week since january twenty twenty three, riling twenty nine percent. How much did spend on donations to donal tromp as well as downtown loc candidates north of one hundred thirty million dollars? So a nice to turn there.

Um Michael, don't bet against elan musk. He's got the year of the present. He was on the phone call today.

I'm speaker phone with ukraine olin sky. I mean, he he's there. He he's in the next is of power. He he is I think.

you know there was, I think, a sense that there was a potential threat to his businesses if trump t did not win simply because he hit gotten so involved in this political race. I mean, we'd hurt some political commentators suggesting that maybe he had gotten a little too involved. Some of his you contracts and things like that should be examined, that those threats have obviously been alleviated.

That said, the evaluation on tesla and everybody will know big fan of the product, big fan of the company. A little bit chAllenging to chase IT, I think, at at these levels because tesla is still at this point, mostly a car company got great robotics and coming down the pipeline. But boy, it's it's been quite a run. I don't know that i'd be adding to positions here right now.

It's more than one hundred times forward. Other trillion dollar tech companies are twenty to forty ish or so forward pe. So it's it's quite a premium. If you think .

about all the regulation that will be cut, it's probably in the sweet spot of our test la conduct business, right? Robot taxi, huge amount of regulation batteries.

Maybe subsidies cut though.

Subsidies cut, but but I think they have the least to worry about. I think the other they have forty eight percent market here. Gm has nine percent.

Four has around eight percent. I think they're ready there. They love to have the subsidies.

They'd also love that out. The carbon crunch, carbon crunch were nine billion ince since all nine. Because theyd like to sell those two. I think they have less to lose and more, much more again than the rest, rest of the field. This but I think the regulatory headwinds that tesla faces for all of its collective businesses will be alleviated.

You could also have a seat the table when IT comes for A I regulation. But I mean to in terms of you know gm was up a lot this week and the notion that they roll back some of the regulate, you know, the environmental regulations and ice comes back more profitable for ford and gm, that's great.

And what they're Better at and games never been Better at their ice business. And and he think that is interesting. And IT also just means that there I would go back to the other part of the move. And tesla though is the move before elections. How about since they made an a learnings announcement where actually their costs went down, their profitability went up.

And me, there's an argument that that in a world where again, back to the the elon influence, I actually think this is the case where also you add that under the fundamental of the company, I hate the ford multiple. I hate IT IT at fifty times. I don't want to go out and buy this car.

I'm just saying part of the move in tesla, I don't think, is all about the elon White house story. I think it's about tesla, which in which two weeks ago changed the story around profitability in the timely because anyone, even the almost community, is give me a rough five quarters. Well, i'm not so sure. Based upon what we just hurt.

a lot has changed on win. So maybe more than one hundred times forward is worth IT. What do you think there's .

no way you're going to get me to get on the show? And just I tried IT and justice paying a hundred, a hundred times and people, that's the right thing to do know. I think the others made a decent point here in terms of you've already seen a very significant that I think he was into the two and seven hundred and eighty and maybe even even twenty percent on the back of earnings.

That was a concern we were concerned about, uh, whether not they were gonna the only incumbent you see in their competitors pull back. We were worried about Price cuts and promotional activity. All of that is kind of been alleviated. I think we actually have seen the fundamental the fundamental rally um so to speak, in the name. This most recent rally in the span of two days is very much that he ended up being on the right side of the political bit. And while I don't advise buying into that, I do think for the tesla balls IT very much is on brand because a lot of the premium one hundred times for a multiple that you're mentioning is because of islands must lack a fear of being bold and and living on the edge.

Lot of good points, lot more fast when they to come here is coming up next.

Could a bad apple spoiled the whole port folio? Why the chart master is reducing exposure to an underperforming tech giant? And whether you should do the same loss trouble in the china trade stocks heading lower as tera fears hang overhead, how the new administration could target the mainland and what that means for investing overseas. You're watching fast money lie from the next deck market side in time square. We're back right after this.

C, N, B, C has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. M, cnbc, Jessica, and follow and listen to see nbc business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back to fast one. Apple lagged the market. This we gaining less than two percent compared to a nearly five percent gain for the sp shares.

The iphone maker four in a half percent from its all time high just weeks ago. Um the time mester pointing out that apple is under performing the browser tech sector as well and has been since late twenty twenty two. He thinks there's more downside to come and says to continue to reduce oser grasp. Do you agree?

Um yeah said I had a tremendous move and I was based on the phone. I don't think you saw the they said super psychosis s significant cycle. I actually just order my new phone um but I ve a thirteen so I waited three iterations.

I think i'm OK waiting three iterations and I think a lot of people are waiting once that was that stall for A I IT gave them the red flag. So you know what? I wait for my upgrade. But I think come the spring, they're going na order a lot more upgrade. So maybe this is the delay .

effect name bottom.

I think china remains an overhang. But to kind of circle back the car to point on a relative basis, it's really hard to argue against him that whether or not you want to just shed your apple position um in in a vacuum, I think is a bit tougher to make that call. Clearly, I think there are Better pockets in the technology complex to be invested. And I think i'm very supportive of bad notion coming from the Carter, the china overhang and alone and the lack of A I is Steve mention to me, remove a lot of the the catalist that would lead to short term upside we do with .

the china issue before when it's been ongoing. Issue does IT get any worse in a trump administration when he comes to tim cook, who goes to visit .

china regularly.

I yeah, yeah, I think I could, but I like apple here. I'm not going to argue with Carter start that had and showed dynamic again. It's a relative call he's making and there's no questioning.

IT has underperformed. In fact, with the last three months, a apple has done a pretty much what tesla did today. Uh so it's been an under performer, but that might be an apple, especially as this is truly as as an investor and apple versus a trade in apple.

Um the sentiment or an apple is terribly high. We have Priced in a whole lot anything. This is a company that mitt money spins off. Cash has the ability to be very defensive in a downer.

And we have been Priced in A I i'm going to argue since that peak in really in two thousand and twenty one stocks, that nothing yeah broke out up at one ninety level. But you know up to two twenty five, you've really you've done almost nothing. I think you can be longer options traders.

though, don't necessarily see I to ye with the chart master. They're betting apple contest is all time high as soon as next friday. So mike, what are you seeing?

Yeah, I mean, actually, what we saw today is very much in line with what we've been seeing over the course of the last month or so, which is that call buying has definitely outpace put buying if we ignore the activity that we saw today. And we just take a look at options that expire at least next week. Beyond four of the top five most active contracts were calls.

The most active ones were those that expire at the end of next week. The two thirty strike was actually the most active. More than thirty seven thousand of those trade for about a book thirty five. And I would point out at that Price, what you're paying for upside call options that expire about a month out is about as lows that has been over the course of the last five years. So for those people who are wondering whether they can press their logs, but a little bit concerned about the fact that we're towards the uh and evaluation concerned about china or whatever, you know, buying calls is probably a good way to go because there as inexpensive as theyve been in five years.

That's interesting coming up china sox getting hit as investors brains from more terrorists in the next administration or next as though is more worried about and all out trade war long new global, the wards will join us next to layout what to expect and the impact IT could have on U. S. Channel relations that one back in to mr.

Moment of fast catches any time on the go, follow the fast money podcast. We're back right after the.

While much of his money stocks closing out a big week after the election, all three induced notch fresh record clothes, with the out topping forty four thousand for the first time, and the S. P. Briefly training above six thousand luxury retail socks getting hit today or man's L V H and others with sizeable losses highly anticipated.

China's stimulus fAiling to meet investor expectations without cattle be enough to push consumers to start spending again, seeking with china etf tied to the country resuming their march lower today with fears of strict terrace adding to the stimulus concerns, the cake web internet etf tumbling nearly seven percent. The ice shares large cap in china etf down more than five percent each. B, C, contributor, georgic meal a, join us now for more on the trade in gitter. He's longing global. Imagine directer, senior policy analyst formally serve in the obama administration to wards are always great to see you.

I'm a lisa. Welcome back. Good to see you.

Thank you. Good to be back. I'm in terms of the terrace that every everybody is concerned about. You are actually concerned about a potential trade war. What does that look like in your view?

Well, messa, I think we've been talking a lot about terror sort of us to china and what may happen there. What words me is a larger trade war that is not just what we intend to to do to china, but what are the reata steps that china may take. And what i'm not hearing a lot of is also this broader looked at the trump uh campaign, spoke about with ten percent across the board terrors which medication hit, alas, like our european trading partners.

And if we look at, uh, germany, for example, germany economy is already on life support. So if they are hit, they will have uh additional concerns about what's happening in in the eu in all of these countries. China as well as well as and partners will respond with their own set of terrors on us and therefore now we have this global trade war that that I fear malison um .

focusing in just a bit on china though, first, what sort of taty measures we've always talked about sort of tit for cat in a way to measured responses um in relationship to what we do to them. They will do something commencer and vicinity a is that a bad assumption in this new scenario?

Commentary may not be the way to look at IT. I think I think they certainly have some things that they could do with respect to the agricultural sector. I've talked a lot about how they control critical minerals.

IT may be able to do something uh, there, but look, we import far more from them and they then they do from us. So they are gonna have limited band with in terms of how they can match us tera for tera. So I think we should expect some of that, but we should look to other things.

I don't know what they will do to us to U. S. companies. Many U S. Companies are will likely try front run some of this by surging imports uh, today millis we heard from Steve man CEO ever rose phil who said they are already starting to draw down some of a their imports from china as a preemption for what they think is coming uh, with trump tayer I don't know how china is gonna to Steve man's attempts to do this.

So there are whole range of possibilities here, and I think we should be talking about all of them. And so far, the conversation has just been about what we will do to china. China has agency. They will likely try and do things to us into our businesses as well.

Edward? Tim, yeah. And in in fact, that chinese exports last night were significant, Better than expected, which is about the other side of the trade are talking about, which is that chinese exporters might be trying to push as much as they can before that starts to happen. And and so as we speak of this and this is where you are, i'm curous or this is what you've started to talk about here. I'm curious your view on is that bazooka, which we clearly haven't seen, why would you hold off on that bazoo if you're china until you get into the trumpet administration and you actually know what you're up against and if you actually need to fire a bigger fiscal gun, if you're china, but if you're going to MIT that because of trump or not, there's no sense in doing IT now. So if markets are expecting something, how to china that my view is now I think you're now on hold.

I think you're absolutely on autumn, you said this the last time that we that we spoke here that, that traders, investors are pretty much coming to Turners with the fact that this bazooka fiscal spending juicing consumption is not gonna en this year, the package that we are overnight. That's a dead swap term. And that's because china is really, in the short term, more concerned about local government debt, but they also are aware that you're not gonna do IT with exports in terms of trying to get growth in twenty twenty five if you have these. And so then you will likely have no choice but to try and produce domestic consumption as one of the grow drivers because your exports that's not gonna be a real good tool if you're under this this trade war area.

The verge. C always great to get your analysis.

Thank you to c make .

neo long view global. My color thoughts there on chinese equities or this potential trade war that the warrior without lining.

So I know I think there was a lot of hyperbole about terrace that was launched during the during the campaign. I mean, if elon really does have trumps ear on this, you know, he obviously Operates big businesses. He has to deal with supply chains.

He's going to be practical about that, and I think a lot of his other advisers are going to recognize that as well. So well, I can understand that domestic companies that are a relying heavily on china might accelerate their purchases in anticipation of potential terrorists. I actually expected the response in reality is going to be more measured and that they are probably going to pay some of those increased and try to take a look at them a little bit more methodic.

That's the first thing I would say. The second is that, of course, our baLanced trade with our trading partners has always been Operating at a significant deficit. So this is a battle that, I mean, maybe there are no winners, but we would be a smaller loser.

And just echoing what what might say there. When you look at automobile, els europe imposed to ten percent tax on USA products, but we imposed two one percent on them, agricultural eight and half percent versus two and a half here. We're just trying to even these things out. This is not happy in a vacuum. So I wouldn't worry other other the other than the the face value of this, we're just trying to get in line.

I just really mexico this week actually prince higher. And the biggest trade tariff dynamics that we hear about is mexico going to get I me maybe it's because it's all going to mexico, but if you look at the election night where mexico is, trade and peace was down two and a eight percent. Mexico is down for closes the week hire. That's interesting.

Coming up a big week for the country in the markets we are coming in on a couple of charts. That's a particular strength, including one, but just not just best week in a year, the names when fast money return.

Welcome back to fast money. Let's get to our charts of the week. Bitcoin hitting a new all time high today and expectations were cyp T O, friendly trumpet administration either having an even Better run up more than sixteen percent since monday. Proxy plays including coin base and robot od sowing this week as well, Steve.

So just the headlines that we've seen at a trump crypto to capital the world, a strategic bickle in reserve and mining mainland in the us once everything done from a through. So of course, that's going to be the reason why you get a catalyst with a truck Victory.

you say with the skirt or trade.

though I think you have the set up to have bitcoin. Let this get parabolic, probably double in the next couple of years.

Quite a prediction. Check out the art innovation etf shares heating levels not seen since late last year. Arbus eo Cathy wood told us earlier this sweet that he has bullishness on tech regardless of who on the election. The fund has has arranged its year to date losses since then. It's sixteen percent weekly gain its best in a year winners this week temps A I at more than sixty percent coin base as well as pantier bono in I mean, not only you have potential deregulation, more friendly administration, but you've also got the potential of the Carry trade back on.

Ah you do and good for Cathy woods this and I think she's been an easy target over the last couple of years and she's held firm in some of her positioning. You look at that our holdings, listen, as you mentioned, coin Robin hood pantier.

Now there we should make you know a little bit of differentiation between some of those, I think talent for one in terms of the growth that they're seeing around government contracts in the revenue from that is material. And you would expect that a reassuring and protections st type of regime would actually be supportive of that, as Steve is mention, I think you have a lot of positive dynamics for a bitt coin. I want to halt on calling for a double, but I definitely think that you have won a support of government of bitcoin and and out coins. And to you especially have some bone yelled volatility, which serves as another Candy's for investment into alternative investment. So I think those two things couple would lead for a lead to at least a part of positive train line in the shorted medium term coming up.

media socks on the move, all weak earnings and potential amy on the radar for the industry. Should we expect a boom in deal making the months to come, we'll discuss that next more fast. One, two.

Welcome back to us. Many netflix hitting fresh all time highs before pulling back to end the day with a slight loss. The streaming given up more than sixty percent this year. That's in sharp contrast to one of its biggest entertainment rivals, disney heads into next thursday, earning report up just ten percent on the year and well off at spring highs.

With a new regulatory regime likely incoming, could potential imminent action a shock this name and the rest of the industry back to life, while geral media reporter joe flint joints us now with more joe, great to have you with us and night. I guess know the first question is who needs IT? Who who needs to combine at this point? I mean, a lot of the streamers, perhaps some of the local broadcasters court top in your list what? I think those .

are good places to start. Local broadcasters in particular. We d like to see a relaxation of fcc ownership rules so they can get bigger, next stars and care, take the groups like that bigger or sell.

And your point about streamers, there's always been a lot to talk about consolidation or partnerships between streaming services such as p hog and a pair, my plus or a max with someone. So we'll see if actually things get moving. You you come next year.

Do you think Donald trumps sometimes adversarial stance against certain media channels will play into how he views media?

Console lidity from cereal. Yeah, you know that's that's the wild card in holbach. I think people are expecting a pro business, a administration.

But at the same time, let's remember the trump oj suit, uh, google. In his first term, he tried, they tried to block the eighteen and T A one Warner merger. Large part, uh, he been bent reported with about his concerns about CNN.

So you can you can rule that out. Now whether that will turn out to be more bluster than really getting the way of deal making remains to be seen. But IT is something to be considered.

J tem, thankyou. Janina, I get the sense that the the lack of ma or consolidation in in media has been a function of a no one really knows what the assets are worth. And and I I look at some of the deals and I look at also some of the smart media focus, private equity money like a red bird.

And and I I feel that the sum of the parts dynamics, whether you're looking at some of the assets that we know where out there on the block, just give me your sense on is their value out there. And I know we're kind of exposed me the animal side of this, but you're in the middle this stuff. I get the sense that one deal will trigger many deals because I just think there's there's a lot of undervalued assets.

I think there's something be said for that. Certainly, if you were to talk to David's assault, the CEO Warner discovery, he would tell you, as he said, that after earning yesterday, their stock is is under valued. I think libraries are still very valuable.

Yum boobies TV shows that sort of thing. What's really been hit badly. Our uh, cable networks and cable networks still generate a lot of cash, but cord cutting is everyone knows and the advertising money going to other platforms. This is really hurt that business. And the perception that IT is a strong, stable business rather than a slow melting ice cube.

What do you think happens to the cable networks of comcast? Just asking for a friend.

Well, IT will be interesting. If they do decide to spin, spin them off in a separate company, will they then use that company to try to gobble up other cable networks and sort of create a major cable network owner, which you know would certainly have be a place that would generate a lot of cash. But I could also see them a staying put attend of you can cast is is somewhat conservative in terms of how they make their moves. But the fact that they actually disclose this tells me they are giving a serious thought.

All right, joe, great to attack you. Thank you so much for john ing us still all journal time. We start off with the disney disney report next week. What are you anticipating?

Dreaming profitable so as big if we can keep this going. And um I think the stock talk about under valued, maybe not, but in terms of the drivers for the stock.

for sure up next final trades.

By the trade time, mike, yeah vans don't completed .

their sale of world pack a cara live this week that gives the new CEO chanel Kelly liquidity he needs, implying huge moves on learnings.

That's what i'm looking at bottom.

I think people will all output domestically. Ultimately, I don't want to speculate on what way oils going to go with the services I think would tend to be the beneficiary. Aries oi age coin base.

brian astro also cona traded into the election also successfully. I think coin base goes higher.

see feeling but one, and forgot this final trade there. Maybe, maybe a little bit. Gray skill theory of mini trust. E, T, H.

right that way. Thanks to watch fast. What a week IT was. Bad money. The gym crammer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the fast money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect to the opinions of C N B, C N B C universal, their parent company, or a pilot ates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium.

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