Closing Bell Overtime: Former PIMCO Chief Economist Paul McCulley On Weak Jobs Report; Goldman’s Tech Playbook 11/1/24
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In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat and it's about the bottom line. Live from the new. York, washington votes that's the end of regulation .

Better wear ringing closing about the new .

ork stock exchange first responders at children's foundation doing honors the NASA november kicking off with the bank is stocks rally to start this new month that despite a soft jobs report focus now turning to the fed and the election was too low on the week. For the major averages though, that's the score car wall street. But the actually is just getting started to welcome the closing bell over time. I'm working ran with john port.

a big friday show coming your way, coming up form of pinko chief economist paul mccoy, ways in on the jobs number, how I could impact the fed decision .

in the election, plus a company clips on his company in its latest acquisition and how terabits are changing this deal business and golden .

take on tech noales st. Eric shared and breaks down the key tech away from mag seven earnings and how those results are informing his tech playbook into iran.

But first, let's break down today's action with whose a asco of H S B C global private banking and wealth management and Scott run of wealth fargu investment institute. Good afternoon to have both. We did have an update for the major averages.

Scott, all right with you because you've been cautious both on equities and fixed income. What is IT going to take for you to feel less cautious here? Well, more than I think .

when you see what you know from the otobu twenty seventh, twenty twenty three low to, you know, the recent, I mean, we are up forty percent. So we're trying to be patient here a little Better. Earlier this year, few months ago, we took one step toward a more signal kind of a position because we do think the economy here and globally is going to be doing by by the second half of the year.

But we're not chasing stocks right here. I mean, we do like financials. We like industrial, we like communication services. So those those are all good positions that I think we're probably going to Carry for a while.

But really, to be asked with you, I think there are still going to be someone certainty over how many cuts is the fed going to make? Is inflation going to inch down anymore? And I think after this big run higher, I think patients will pay off and we will have an opportunity to buy stocks at lower levels.

And we've talked to client and we're locking in some of these higher rates. Three, sixty, three, seventy. We really didn't, in one have a lot of interest in long bonds. But to up here you know four twenty north of four twenty um we definitely do. So we made a few adjustments, but I think that will look for other opportunities to take another step.

Who's they how do you see this market? I keep calling IT the three. We've got election earnings and we know amazon really drove the major averages today, but IT wasn't the only big move or tied to earnings. And then you've got econ data, which was a little bit of a mixed bag today, but in general has been pretty resilient. And as we go to another fed meeting next week.

yeah, let me let me take your side of that. If you look at today's numbers, disappointing, right? Take out the weather, take out the strike. Today's payrolls are definitely growing slower.

And if you have slower payroll growth, but you have almost three percent growth and more than three percent growth on final cells, that's the definition of productivity, right? For every employee, we're putting out a lot more stuff. And if you look at the numbers coming out from fact through the end of today, earnings look pretty good.

Early look pretty good for the quarter. They look pretty good for the fourth quarter. And next year, we're going from not only earnings going to fifteen percent or more, we're seeing revenues expand from five percent this year to five point six percent next year from my perspective.

That gives the fed the room they need, need to ease shelter. Crossed down from eight to four point eight from the peak to now. And and if you look at that CPI more gn, we've talked about this before that we ve felt two percent is a symmetric range between one and a half.

Two and I have or at two point one percent. So the fed has the room to do what he needs to do. We think the markets look good. And and just that was mentioned before you we've been telling clients to extender ation capture rates as they as they bump up.

The problem I think we have in these markets is a misperception on inflation and what's going on in terms of the government sector debt ceiling budgets know what's going to happen with the budget when we get to the end of the fourth quarter and then the election, obviously. But we think we're going to get through those in the fundamentals. Still a pretty good proof, fixed income and equities.

okay. Will Scott, how bigger deal is this six months high in consumer sentiment ahead of an election that's arguably had a lot of shoppers preoccupied ahead of black friday coming up later this month?

I think a lot of its probably a john has to do with gasoline Prices coming off here. And if you certainly look historically, if you look at consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, what consumer saying what they do are two different things. A lot of the times and there's probably not too many times in history where you've had an unemployment rate that's at four point one percent.

You've had the economy growing close to three percent um where you know confidence and sentiment, I mean, they're way, way off what historic has have been. So that doesn't happen very often. I think it's people are focused on what the Price general Price level is out there, inflation relative to what their wages have done over over last three or four years.

I think that's what's kept sentiment at these lower level. So we won't expect sentiment to get up and just start running here. No, stocks aren't cheap. These big growth companies are probably going to keep driving things.

And I would say that you know for us on the earnings front, we're not expecting anything near next year um as far as of fifteen percent increase in earnings. And we're looking for yeah when surprise to support at all. If you had you two or three quarters here, know maybe out into the second or no quarter, maybe a little beyond where know you've got GDP growth well below two percent. So I think that earnings growth can be restrained here.

Who was a quick last one here? You say a republican sweep would be a good for stocks and a democratic clean street would be more negative. Is a sweep in either direction likely though? And what's that likely to mean for stocks?

No, look, bottom line is when you get a sweep, it's a problem for the markets, right? historical. We do Better when we have those checks imbaLances ces in place and you have a mix between the executive and legislative branches.

That's historically the best scenarios. The point was you know the differences in potential tax policies. And clearly, you're going to need support of congress to raise or lower taxes next year. I think if you look at IT though, on the face on the first blush, if you lower taxes, there is an opportunity that there for the consumer who is seeing real disposable incomes positive for the first time in a long time, right last, last couple of months, it's been strong.

And and if you look at spending and looks pretty healthy from from our perspective, if we don't see the twenty seventeen tax cuts continued or enhanced from where they are, then there are some slight fiscal drag on the consumer as we head into the second half of twenty twenty five, obviously. But I think that we'll see how that plays out. And there are a host of other factors at play.

In terms of the consumer though, john, I would focus on one thing here, which is let's not forget the stock market is at or near all time has that is a part of the sentiment indicators. And people don't only feel richer, they in fact are richer. And a lot of times they can act on things from that perspective as well.

So we think the consumer looks relatively healthy. And you know certain points are certainly hurting. But on baLance, consumer spending still much relatively healthy, and we think that will continue through through twenty.

twenty five course. We ve heard that from a number of consumer facing companies this week alone with earnings. Rosie asked and Scott run.

Thank you both. Let's turn out to amazon to the big winner of the session, helping power the major averages. After earnings came in strong cloud revenue grew nearly twenty percent. Kate roney joins us with more on the move. Kate Morgan.

so amazon was really able to throw a needle in the quarter. Executive showed an ability to be hugely profitable while still investing in A I growth. Margin expansion and Better Operating profits were a bright spot in the quarter, especially for amazon's retail business overall Operating income board that doubled up one hundred and twenty nine percent.

And every year, that really highlighted some of the cost cutting efforts for amazon starting to pay off. Ad business was strong as well. And then the all important cloud business, aw s crew, nineteen percent every year, still with thirty eight percent margins. Some bullish commentary coming on the conference called two C O and justice, saying that A I is now a multi billion dollar run rate business growing triple digital percentages. Here are Jesse described that opportunity .

IT is a really unusually large, maybe once in a lifetime type of opportunity. And I think our customers, the business and our shareholders um we'll feel good about this long term that we're aggressively pursuing IT.

And guys, part of that aggressive strategy is spending. So capex for the area says is going to be around seventy five billion dollars. Jesse says you suspects they're going to spend even more than that next year.

Guys are this is fascinating to me because in some ways, that feels like classic games on playbook. They always have invested heavily into their business. And one investors start to bulk. They pull back on the investments and they say, look, we have levers we can pull with a diversified business.

And I feel like that was a big part of what we saw here even as they do continue to cramp up their spending into this AI infrastructure built out, which draws in the focus for me, the retail business and the fact they're seeing Better margins there. They're seeing strength there. And I wonder how much of a review that is to some of the other big names in retail like a walmart, as we do see trade down by consumers, but these biggest players continuing to hang onto that market chair.

I think of a great point. We're going at least on the margins in north american retail. That was sort of the fear factor heading into earnings.

If you look back at q two, margins on north american retail compressed. So they were. Able to pull levers, able to improve some of the cost cutting there and and they are able to pull levers.

So amazon has some efficiencies that you might not get IT other retailers, they have proven this time and again, as you said, those investments are able to, to pay off in the long run. They've really shows this and they have a track record of doing this. So I think especially when you look back to A I and here, andy, Jessie say this is an opportunity.

We're going to aggressive investors are willing to give them a whole pass and say, okay, we have this muscle memory. We've seen you do this before, you know this playbook and you are going to get some sort of return on investment. Whereas others, you don't have the track record that amazon has and don't have the history of really losing money and then turning that into a massively profitable business. So amazon really did not in the and some of the biggest fears going into IT, they were able to say, guys, we're still profitable. So we're going to get this whole past to go and spend big on A I all right.

kate, really thank you. Well, I also a big winter in the door today reporting a solid revenue quarter once you have past billions and experiment charges yesterday here on over time. Before the call, I asked intel co. Pat gelsinger about customer demand for data center chips.

Clearly, R Z on six product line that is now a in the market is starting a game momentum there. And our overall a position for the z on as the A I data center C P, U of choice has definitely been a positive for that area of the business as well. Overall, very solid product execution.

Get a senate revenue a little bit Better than analysts have been looking for. Intel also giving encouraging q four guidance, although on the animals call, gilson said the adoption rates forwards new gi three AI accelerator slower than anticipated as lt. The company will not achieve its half a billion gadi revenue target for this year. I tried to ask him about that.

and I think it's very notable that a company like intel came on before the conference call to have that conversation .

with you yesterday.

It's so true on socks of eight percent today are are we will coming up and exclusive conversation with the CEO cleveland clips on that company's latest accumulation and how the election in terror landscape could affect his business and after the break, next week's events that could have a major impact on your money. We're not talking about the election. Former po chief economist palm college join us to discuss of today's jobs number changes the fed narrative as we await that decision over times back to.

In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat, and it's about the bottom line. Live from the new york stock exchange sentences.

Go and wash. C, your money, your vote. November fifth. C, N, B, C.

Welcome back to, over time, the major averages kicking off to november in the Green despite a disappointing jobs report, with the us adding just twelve thousand jobs in october as hurricanes and the bowling strike wayed on the headline number. Now investors turning their attention to the election and fed meeting next week, let's bring in former pmc coach, economist paul colly. Paul, happy friday. So you say, no matter who is elected here, the yield curve is going to step in, but with different implications depending on which one explain.

Yes, I think the yellow curve is going to steep because the friends going to bring the front into the curve down, they're shaking that uh, I think that is the clear, unambiguous path. I think they will eat next week, again in december and then again next year uh, several times. Um so I think we have a hundred fifty various borns worth the cutting from here and that's going to read lope the yellow are and that's because the fed is Mandate concession on both employment and inflation, which means they should have a neutral interest rate, which I think is at least the heart and fifty below where they are the slope of the yell curve or more bluntly, where the long term interest rates are reality to short rates will be influence I think pretty meaningly by the election both of the present and congress um and I think I can say with this own table that the yoker would be steeped uh if mr. Trump uh is president then uh if uh h bice president Harris is president.

okay. So this november jobs number and the revision of the previous sorry, october jobs number is just now november first and the revision of the two previous months just a blip the way you or is something we're .

concerning to watch.

I would concur with the consensus that i've been hearing all day that there was a huge amount of noise in the data as there is month to month, but I think more there is a signal and we've gotten from a number of months, which is the labor market is in really good baLance, is not overheated generating inflationary pressures like IT was a year or two ago, but it's also not overheat.

In fact, I would say a mendes's leased mans come in today that is about as close to a gold locks labour market as you can get. So I do t take any negative of implications from today's employment report. It's a imbaLance ed study labor market in the context of the actively achieving the fed inflation objective. That is a really, really nice story.

All I want to go back to the earth curve for a minute. Why can you say pounding fists on table that it's gonna steeped under trump? We just had another market test on you said the opposite.

For a number of reasons. The first is I think that mr. Trump would in he's got a congress that would allow would increase the deficit more than harish wood.

So that's the first um reason. So you have a high risk um you will for long term debt uh uncertain date. But more fundamental, mr. Wants to put on terms and terabits are a perscribed for stagflation.

They take purchasing power out of the consumers pocket and at the same time they get producers, domestic producers pricing power, which is in flawed so a stagflation ary consequence of mr. Trump, the the tera a uh can do IT uh would be to me on ambiguous ly, a steep yell curve as we need to have a an additional risk, mim or a stallions ary outcome. So I will give you two reasons for a staple curve a underneath mister trump um I supposed to his Harris lip side of this is that he already .

task feel on musk he wins with trying to cut some of that government spending as well to the tune two trillion dollars, which I realizes easier said than done we'll see. We'll at all plays out next week. Palmer college.

Thank you. Thank you.

After the break cleaning clifts completing its merger with canadian steel company stelco a today we're going to talk the clever, clever and Cliff CEO larenz consultation is about how the deal fits into the company strategy and how the outcome of the election could impact his business.

And later, widely followed. Market strategist ryan detrick gets you set up for next week's trade and explains why we are entering a historically strong part of the calendar for returns.

Will you are that.

In this election, there is politics and there is power. It's our beat, and it's about the bottom line line from the new york exchange and in washington, D. C. Money, your votes november fifth. The welcome back cleveland clips today .

closing in the two point eight billion dollar acquisition stelco a, which is the largest still maker in canada. I spoke exclusive with clever close C. O and chairman loan sol earlier today, asked what this enables and why he is keeping assets and still co name as a holy own subsidiary. Have a listen.

We were still going to uh to extract one hundred and two hundred million dollars of synergy at the very least. So we make no mistake, we are going to integrate stock, but stock will be Operated as a uh uh separate entity because that's the way to do IT and that's the way to uh maximize the impact of being in a different geography or breaking and with a different currency and uh take advantage of things that are canadian specific. So uh, the sign will happen in in terms of a feed stock, in terms of, uh, uh, commercial, but still cob, still co and there will be sub city on by the lives.

This is your third major deal, uh, for the company in less than four years. How does IT speak to how you're transforming the portfolio?

We, we, we, we know how to do m and a uh when you have uh uh uh uh a friendly counterpart, when you have the support of the union, that's extremely important. And we when you have the governments involved, uh supportive of what are trying to accomplish, things happen. And uh that's the recipe for success.

You have a good target and you have the surrounding uh working in your favor. Uh the main thing for this is the you I can uh uh thank enough or U S. Dog for being with us from get go from the very beginning and we are very, very pleased with the welcome that we are receiving from the government of canada in all that was federal, province, local. So we are super excited what we is coming ahead for clifts on this talk.

So clip is the largest producer of steal for the auto industry, which has seen an automate earnings, including a number than this week of spacing chAllenges. Silica is not in automotive, which consulta says is quite the main reason that he pursued the acquisition because IT expands clifts into other n markets. I also asked him how he is preparing clever in class for potential outcomes of the U.

S. Election, which is just a few days away. We are just a few days away from the presidential election. How are you navigating those potential outcomes? How is clever and clifts prepared to uh or thinking about how that's going to play out for the market for still making and for your end customers next year and beyond.

I think we we have done a good job in explaining what uh is still making is for the country, and we did a good job on both sides. So here is our trump for us is not going to be a big difference. And uh, that's probably one of the big exception on, uh, a little of things that can be really night, night, day depending on who is the next present of the light states.

We don't see that on steel. I believe that the importance of manufacturing in the importance of still at the very basis of the very foundation of manufacturing in to the united states is abundantly clear both to the hair rs campaign into the trump campaign. So are very please do what we have done.

We believe that we launched good basis, good foundation for what's coming. And we can't wait for two thousand and two and five. There's a lot coming way.

Two thousand twenty five were super excited. And as far is still we're gonna OK. No matter hood is the next president of the united states.

we have seen interrupts implemented on certain types of steel imports into the us. Over the years that started on the last administration, the trumpet administration. We've seen those largely kept by the current administration, even ratched IT up to a certain extent, depending on the products our tariff s working. And is that a piece of the puzzle that you expect to continue into next year and beyond?

Yeah terf is work. But thefts are uh is let's put like this term is is medicine and that IT is important not to get sick and, uh, we are sick in the united states.

We don't .

understand we as a country, uh, we don't understand how bad IT is for the country to allow for import to destroy the economy, destroy the economy just to give another good quarter to a company or true or ten, you cannot destroy the fabric of, uh, capitalism by allowing chinese, japanese, german, french all these people to come to this country, particularly coming through this country, to back door in mexico, and basically destroy what we have here.

Complicate the lives of the middle class in the middle st and just because the big picture is okay, uh, the lives of americans are not okay. So that was the biggest accomplishment of this last year, ensuring that the chinese are not our friends. Everybody knows that.

Now they know that the japanese are. Our friends said, so that's what we are going to to have two thousand twenty five or more realistic approach, if there is are necessary. I am sure that both sides, hair or trump, will be ready to deploy.

I hope we do even need to do that. We going to block them them from, uh, accessing the U. S. Market through the back door earlier. And then we don't need even need to .

line console vis position clive and enclitic ses in north american steelmaker, betting that global supply chains continue to become less integrated in that domestic production manufacturing continues to Carry greater priority. This, even as the company has been able to well will say, benefit by quiring assets at lower values, given the hollowing out of american steel making over the past four decades. John shares finished the day of two percent as this deal closed with stock.

A very interesting well time now for a cnbc news update with bird club birthday.

Hey, john elon mosque has lost his bid to move the pennsylvania loss to shut down his one million dollar a day election sweep stakes to federal court. A district judges and philadelphia denied the bit today which keeps the trial in a state court ruling, did not address the legality of mux lottery.

Iran is ready to change its policy and nuclear weapons if it's faced with an existential threat, as according to an advisor to the around supreme leader told the eleven needs broadcaster today the country has the capability to build nuclear weapons and increase the range of its ballistic missiles. The U. S.

Intelligence community has yet to respond to the iranian advisors comments, and lift has agreed to pay two point one million dollars in fines for planning deceptive or running to the deceptive ads. According to the ftc, the right for company made misleading statements on how much lift drivers could earn. Lift stated on its website that IT has made changes to tell drivers just how much they can make back over job earth.

Thank you. Well, six of the magnificent seven thoughts are now reported earnings, with NVIDIA, the last name in the group, still waiting in the way up. Next, goldman's tech expert, eric charton, gives us his playbook into era.

And as we had to break, check out shares of satellite communications company global star shooting higher today on news. Apple is committing one point five billion dollars to fund to the company's expansion of its iphone services shares going to have thirty one percent.

Welcome back to over time, six of the max seven names are in the books for this quarter earning cycle. The tech names posting strong earnings and revenues, but the investor reaction more mixed. Microsoft, meta and apple negative for the week.

Amazon finish strong journey now, golden sex managing director eric shared and eric papi friday. So cloud growth across the board with the hyperscore pretty strong capex spending appetite seem to be too. So with we know what some of the upside of A I spend is with how it's optimizing engagement of real feed ads, you actually asked mazur berg about that on the call. How much does that matter to be able to at least also draw the line to how the spending pays off?

Yes, thanks for every major. And I think that's absolutely critical. Investors want to see correlation a dollar spent and when can I get a return or a yield on that dollar in terms of revenue growth. So when you see these cloud computing businesses like alphabet and amazon have and they accelerate their revenue growth, we find the investors have a greater appetite for those capex increases because there's more of that direct connection back into the cloud business is and even in addition to the cloud computing revenue these companies were reporting in their ten q, they reported revenue backlog es. That also we accelerated and are very strong indicators for what growth will look like over the next two years. So the less visibility and the less linear views you have about where the return profile is going to be at in your earnings report almost has to be perfect to get a positive reaction in this kind of market environment.

okay. Moving across from the the mega caps. Why do you like uber from here?

We like uber as a revenue growth compounder with rising margins and increasing return of capital to shareholders. Over the last three or four months, there's been a lot of volatility in uber stock is there's been concerns and that a point to time those concerns have been alleviated about how autonomous vehicles could impact the existing right sharing networks.

And in this quarter in particular, there was a slowdown in the bookings growth for the mobility or the right turn business. IT was not outside the bounds of what we expected. But I think when you see a bit of a slowdown in a core segment that is subject to some investor debates, there again is not a lot of room for error on the day of earnings.

That being said, if you take a step back, we are still talking about mid teens or Better mobility growth, Better growth than that in terms of their delivery business with a rising margin profile. And on our numbers, uh, uber can produce two fifty in excessive two fifty of gap earnings in twenty twenty five and an excess of three fifty of gap earnings in twenty twenty six against right around the seventy dollars stock Price. That's a pretty compelling Price to earnings ratio for a company that can produce this kind of growth, we believe, over multiple years.

If we expand this out, just looking to stay to the consumer, three year digital lens this week with earnings from a number of companies, including online travel platforms, you mention uber, door dash. You could even put amazon in that category. Two, with the retail side of the business. What is IT telling us about the consumer?

It's great question and has been a couple of key learning this week. Number one, there's still a preference for services over goods with the digital consumer. So you saw strong results from the delivery businesses, the travel business within booking.

Secondarily, when you move into goods, its discretion is very volatile discretion behavior by consumers. So you need to have discounts. You need to have lower Priced items. So amazon highlighted that lower Priced items and where they presented discounts to the consumer allow them to exceed forecasts and produced Better results. But then you saw a more typed results from companies like ebay and that are very directionally and nature as opposed to household items and non directional items. So those key fault lines between services and goods and with the goods between directionally and non discretionary behavior was very much on display this week across a whole array of learning reports.

with nearly a fifth of the S. M. P. Reporting next week. Still, what are you watching most closely? New coverage universe.

I think we're going to build on the travel narrative. We're going to get results from airbnb and expedia will follow up the results from uber with lift will continue to hear about the digital advertising environment, the pinch. So those are gonna some of the names as we look out to next week.

Again, continuing the theme of how is the digital consumer behaving, what are some key fault lines, are differences between business models? How is the holiday sees in setting up because it's interesting it's a short and holiday is in which we think can cause some risk for commerce, but where marketing intensity might be Better for the digital advertising names. So so those are some of the key themes we're looking forward earnings next week.

all right, we'll be watching as well, eric shared in thank you. Thank you. Next, the CEO of nerd wallet, which car nearly thirty percent as we gone, whether there are any science credit conditions, consume ease from any cash strapped consumers and check .

out shares of cardinal health is one of the big winners in the S. M. P. Five hundred. Today, the health care services provider beating on the top and bottom lines and forecasting strong full year guidance, shares finished up .

seven percent. Stay with us.

Welcome back investors spending today. A soft jobs report increases the likelihood of continued recut. Today, john takes time out with a CEO whose customers would welcome that relief.

John and tim chen n is founder and CEO of nerd wallet of fin tech company with a billion dollar market cap. Net walls. Marketplace matches providers of financial services like credit cards, loans and insurance with people who need them at times. I've been especially tough lately for the working class, and chen can late as the sun of immigrants who had to get creative as a kid, selling magic, the gathering cards to buy new shoes.

Maybe that's for the reason why I was selling magic cards, growing, Operate and buying and selling magic cards and things like that. I definitely wanted to figure out how to get the things that I wanted. One of my most vivid childhood memories is really running nike is, and my my parents refused to buy them from me.

And then one day during P I just eat IT like I was. I was running the flour. I had these shoes that were, I think, like ten bugs. The souls had more n off and I just eight had had really brisley and we're so angry and I think not not long after I uh stop um buying lunch with the lunch money I was given and went by magic cards with them.

And when nerd wallet reported earnings earlier this week, the stocks spite largely because of growth and nerd wallet insurance related business. But there are other troubling chance in the economy, chen said. Like an increasing number of working class barring for underwater on their car loans.

a lot of people owe more money on their auto alone than their car is worth because, you know, during that inflationary period, there's a shortage and cars in car Prices went up so much, and that's really unfortunate. And so we're seeing that of consumers actually unable to afford selling their car and opting into extending their loan terms, again, paying more money over more years but trying to get that monthly payment down. So there is real stress on the consumer, especially the more paycheck to paycheck part of the population.

So the time out take away credit crunch. A strong jobs market for now has shielded the consumer driven economy from the effects of inflation and higher interest rates. But pressure is building, and IT looks like twenty twenty five will partly be a story of the conditions ease fast enough to help these barbers who are painfully stretched.

Morgan IT gets back to the restrictive conversation we're just having with palmer college and that neutral rate. John, great stuff up next a top space investor on how the outcome of the presidential election next we could impact the future of the space industry and super mico keeps getting hit hard as uh, a result of earth and Young resigning as an auditor over accounting concerns. The stock is now down forty percent this week. It's now in the red. You're today.

What does the U. S. Presidential election mean for the future of space?

I think that a lot of people go through this sort of awakening, right? Where do they think that space is all about um uh commercial space stations and space tourism and rocket launches and things like that. You know like these emerging areas um apart from rocket launches, you know these emerging areas like lunar transportation, space stations, whatever, that really makes up like one percent of what's going on. Uh although it's like really fun to talk about, write and captures the imagination, the real opportunity is again leveraging the satellite infrastructure for the benefit of trestle markets and life you're on earth will try to .

Anderson is founder and managing partner of venture firm space capital. He says previous administrations have experienced to that awakening. What's different this time? Both candidates already have space policy track records.

As vice president, commute herri is the current chair of the national space council of advising on policy across the federal government. And it's actually been on a similar path to the previous administration when then president trump, revived to the council, also stood up the U. S. Space force, regardless of who wins space capital, which tracks quarterly data, as after several years of sluggers activity, signs of a rebound in investing are emerging.

We are in a what you you in in space terms, which you call max q the the period of maximum ero dynamics pressure on the vehicle, that sort of what we're feeling in the space of economy right now. We're nearly um we're making our way through that. And like I say, we've got a lot of signs, lot of reasons to be optimistic about a twenty twenty five. But I think you know company is have a lock to to do to regain the trust of investors after the the back from the of twenty twenty one.

Now interestingly, space ex has not tapped the capital markets since twenty twenty two even as IT is rapidly expanded, start link and spends billions of dollars developing starship china.

There are three hundred and thirty billion dollars invested in space ex came online um uh into two thousand unique space companies um and fifty percent of that has gone to U. S. companies.

Twenty five percent has gone to chinese companies. So that leaves twenty five percent for the rest of the world. And and there's not really no third places pretty, pretty far out.

Now china has been investing a quote, break the next speed, according to inertion. So joe, politics will also factor into any space file policy we see moving forward. So for more, check out my podcast manifest space that is available, whether we get your podcast or you can skin that Q R code right there.

Love A Q R code up. Next, top strategists on how tuesday's presidential election could impact wall street, the fed and your money and make sure to turn that into cnbc. S all that coverage of the election. Some of the biggest names in business at all starts tuesday 7 pm eastern from the new york sec change。

Welcome back. We just wrapped up the busiest week governing season, but there's a ton of market moving action coming next week for investors, including the presidential election, a fed decision and even more earnings were nearly twenty percent of S M. P.

Five hundred companies getting ready to report. Let's bring in ryde trick, chief market strategist at cars and group bryant. It's great to heavy on.

The other piece of this puzzle is seasonality. We just finished up october, which is historically notoriously to motus. We did see that set off yesterday. I come in into the cloth and we've started november pretty strongly. Is this A A turning tide that needs to be factoring in?

Yeah, we think so. T, G, F, everyone. So you think about a october in an election year is the worst month.

So is a surprising that the five months wind street ended last month, we don't think so. And then you look at november, this is just seasonality, yes. But eleven of the last twelve years, stocks were higher in november thousand and fifty, the best month. The last ten years, the month in an election year is the best month. So we get in some of the weeds this. But we you really do think when we get through the uncertainty of the selection and the fed is gona cut, i'm already going to rock the boat there this upward by as this bull market Price still has a lot of time left, but maybe a little bit of a trick up the sleeve in novembers what we're thinking here.

alright. So in light of that, how do you post position yourself for all of these potentially market moving events next week? What matters most are you really sort of have to game IT all loud.

yeah. I mean, listen, way into this way, we're taking to the dance. You got to see you. We like the signficance, right? We don't see a recession.

Look at the data we've seen in the economy slowing here, some slowing, but the all of your industrial, your financials this week, small were higher. Okay, a midcap did well. The dow was flat.

I know the headlines that stocks were down, but the reality again is broadening out. Beam is really taking place. What how about the fed for a second year? So the fed going to cut next week? That's fine.

We took a look where two point three percent away from all time high. By the way, right now we looked Morgan, when the fed cuts, when the fed, when the S, M. P.

S. With the two percent of all time high back in one thousand hundred and eighty, all the listeners you do know, stocks were higher a year later, twenty out of twenty times. Okay, so worn near all time high.

The fed cuts next week. This is one other way to look at at that. The fed is the long n headwind there a tail win for sure here.

right? I hear what you're saying about history, but we can pull up a year to day chart of the p five hundred if you shown people this. I mean, he doesn't look like october is the worst month because it's hard to tell exactly where october is on that. And I would be shot i've been shocked before, but I would be shocked if november is the best month of this year and we seen this kind of gains. This is different, isn't IT.

Well, great point there. This is like the best election year ever going into the election, right? One thousand nine and eighty was Better by the end of the year.

But this year is an all around all the vx first, second year because great point. Everybody knows to me, volatility next week, or at least you assume that will be. So the vicks is obviously been higher even though we've been kind of call.

I know we had the big drop yesterday, but for the most part, the last you know thirty trading days has been really calm when SHE get through the election of all those canta put buyers, all that the vicks calls that we've been seeing, john, those could unwind, right? Those people have to kind of unwind those. And that's why we think this upper bias is still alive and up with. We want we've thought again, ten percent in november, not saying that, but can stock in in a couple percent here in november, maybe even into december? Yeah, we really think that this is still A A chance for investors to enjoy this ball market.

So how does the an investor put on some protection without being pessimistic, optimistic?

Great question. So we manage money cars group, but the is easier way to do IT, right? And were overweight quality, we have been since december of twenty two, what in popular when we did IT? But now people are kind come on.

But we do have some bond exposure, right? People can own some gold. You can own some cash.

You can have some of the board defensive areas. We don't like those defensive areas much. As I said, I think this is really important for your average listener out there.

He is got a four one k puts IT in every two weeks we're going to voluntier ity that's fine. But the next six months, okay, november through um end of April IT is the best six months of the year. okay.

I mean and when you have a good uh salome go away period like we just did, the returns get even Better. So listen is always something to worry about. Diverse I portfolio helps a lot of that.

but this is still a bull market, we think. All right. So right.

And the other thing we have to talk about, which is not the mistake, is china. You got this M P C meeting next week. We're expecting more policy details regarding stimulus. Um how much does that matter and how much of that is potentially a dark course more broadly to equities?

Yeah lisa, that is depends how much a em exposure someone has output of this. So we haven't like him for a while. Mainly were not crazy about china.

Now there are some slow growth issues. China has a ton of debt. I know they're trying to agree ece, the wheels get things going, but overall, i'm back and cause some volatility.

I think at least for the us. And someone who's U. S.

Centric ally for a little listeners are what happens here with the fed and the election matters more. But with china, we're still underweight. We're still not by yet. We still still see economic growth where does not seeing that yet.

All right, right. Derek, thanks for joining us. Thank you next week, which is going to be very, very action packed.

We also have some geopolitics percussion, the background with reports that iran is preparing a strike a against israel in light of israel recent a actions as well. Also one more thing to watch. And you've seen that pop up in crude markets certainly, right?

And mentioned four one k every couple of weeks. Next year you can put in five hundred dollars more into you. Four one k people should know that.

So we did have a higher day for markets, but a lower week overall is a busy.

busy week for earnings. Lots of surprises. And for now.

that's going to do IT for .

a year over time. In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat and it's about the bottom line.

Lie from the new york stack exchange sentence, ces, go. And washington, D, C, your money, your vote, november fifth. C.