cover of episode Embracing the Escape Fire (with Adam Grant)

Embracing the Escape Fire (with Adam Grant)

2024/8/2
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Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford
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Tim Harford: 本期节目探讨了在面对变化和危机时，反思和适应的重要性。通过曼谷峡谷火灾、托里峡谷号油轮事故以及其他案例，说明了人们在压力下容易固守旧有思维模式，难以做出及时调整，从而导致灾难性后果。同时，节目也强调了在决策过程中，要考虑决策的严重性和可逆性，并预先设定改变想法的条件。 Adam Grant: 节目中，Adam Grant 结合其著作《Think Again》的观点，深入分析了曼谷峡谷火灾中消防员的决策失误。他指出，消防员们未能丢弃工具，是因为工具已成为他们身份认同的一部分，这体现了人们在压力下难以放弃固有思维模式的现象。此外，他还分析了黑莓手机创始人 Mike Lazaridis 的案例，指出其未能及时适应市场变化，是因为他将自己的观点视为教条，而不是科学假设。相比之下，Steve Jobs 虽然起初反对生产手机，但他最终改变了主意，这得益于他周围团队的努力，以及他愿意倾听并接受新的想法。 Adam Grant: 本期节目还探讨了野火管理体系长期以来未能进行反思的问题，指出长期以来人们错误地认为所有的野火都必须扑灭，这导致了森林生态系统的破坏。曼谷峡谷火灾的悲剧，不仅是消防员个人决策失误的结果，更是野火管理体系长期以来未能进行反思的结果。

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Tim Harford and Adam Grant discuss the story of Wagner Dodge, a smokejumper who used an escape fire to survive a wildfire, highlighting the importance of rethinking and adapting in crisis situations.

Shownotes Transcript

Cautionary Conversation: Steve Jobs hated his phone so much that he smashed it against a wall. He also referred to mobile carriers as "orifices". Yet he went on to invent the world's most popular smartphone. Why did he change his mind?

Tim Harford and organizational psychologist Adam Grant (Think Again, Hidden Potential) discuss the consequences of letting our ideas become part of our identity; when it's essential to adapt; and whether frogs really *do *stay sitting in slowly boiling water.

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