9/23/24: Trump Surges In Sun Belt, Kamala Babbles w/Oprah, Trump Rejects Kamala Debate, 'Black N*zi' Republican Staff Revolt, RFK Caught In Reporter Scandal, Israel Threatens All Out Lebanon War
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Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal? Indeed we do. A bunch of new polls, including a new one out from the New York Times, which is like shows a totally different picture than the ones that were on yesterday from NBC News. We got a Nate Silver election model update, so we'll get into all of that.

We also have some Oprah clips from the big Kamala Oprah moment that we wanted to share with you all. We'll discuss what that did for her campaign, if anything. Also some news on whether or not Kamala and Trump are going to debate again. She says yes, he says probably not, so that's where things stand.

Bunch of weird old sex scandals that we gotta talk to you about this morning. We'll just, North Carolina, RFK, top reporter here in D.C., so a lot of interesting things that went down this weekend. And on a much, much more serious note,

basically horror in the Middle East as Israel prepares to turn Lebanon into Gaza, very much projecting that that's the direction that they're going in. So, you know, something that has been feared and foreshadowed for many, many months, and yet the U.S. administration has done absolutely nothing to block that eventuality that we have now

arrived at, so lots to talk about this morning. - Yes, that's right. Before we get to that, we are announcing some special stuff here. We, from now on till election day, are gonna be doing some exclusive election content for our premium subscribers. It's gonna be first available on Locals and everywhere else, our premiums.

Get that content. So, for example, today we're going to be having an exclusive conversation with a forecaster, give some of our own predictions and some of our own state of the race. So if you want first access to that, BreakingPoints.com. It will be available for free just many days later on the free podcast channels as well as on YouTube. So if you want to go ahead and sign up for that exclusive election content, you can. BreakingPoints.com. Like I said, we'll be doing a lot of stuff like these conversations, our election predictions, maps, etc. So go ahead and take advantage of that.

BreakingPoints.com to become a premium subscriber. Now, let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen. We are officially in the absolute run-up to the election, only 43 days until that happens, and people are already voting, including in the state of Virginia nearby. Let's go ahead and put this up there

on the screen, the video. This was a Virginia precinct on the very first day of early voting. You can see people lined up around the block. People really made an event of it. I personally experienced this as well when I was walking around on Friday. I was stunned at the crowds. I was like, well, maybe a fancy new shop or something opened.

Nope, it was elections. That's what it was. People were voting. People were geared up. Most of these people are going to be upper-middle-class liberals because this is northern Virginia, but it does demonstrate that there is a lot of enthusiasm. In fact, the one-day voting record was broken by 1 p.m. prior to 2022. More people had already voted by just in the middle of the day than in 2022 in that election. So there is significantly a lot of enthusiasm there.

I am told in the rural districts in Virginia, there were similar levels of enthusiasm as well. So Trump people are also showing up to vote, but they just don't live around here in Northern Virginia. So it's a tight election. People are fired up. They're ready to go. And we're in for it, Crystal. Yeah. And this is also when we start to get into the phase of election where people look to any sort of metric that they can to grab onto to figure out what the hell is going on. And I would just caution,

2020, let's all put our minds back where that was during the pandemic. It was a totally different electoral landscape. So you really can't compare

the early voting numbers here with the early voting numbers there because it just was such a totally different situation with people wanting to vote early, with the fact that Trump was discouraging anything other than day of election voting. It really is an apples and orange comparison. I'm sorry. I know that's not satisfying, but I just wanted to put that into the mix. Like, don't make too much

of any of these early data signs because it's very difficult, I think, to compare them to past election cycles. Exactly. I'm glad that you said that because that's one of those where there will be quite a bit. And I've actually seen a lot of these go viral. They're like, if we just correct the polls for 2016 and 2020, Trump is 100% going to win. I'm like, yeah, there's just one problem is that we had a 2022 election. So, you know, and also, I mean, I keep saying this, elections are

Every four years, we don't have a very good sample size. We have some knowledge of what things are. And outliers happen all the time. Debates don't matter, right, famously? Well, what does it say? Until they do. Until they do. So there you go. Let's go to A2, please, up on the screen. This is important from Nate Silver. We now see, he says, quote, the big picture. This is his latest election forecast. Who is favored to win the presidency? He actually has now Kamala at 51% and Kavanaugh

Donald Trump at 48.6. That's basically a coin toss. You might as well look at that. Anybody trying to parse like, oh, Kamala's up, Trump is out. Listen, 48.6% versus 51, that is 50-50. And basically, in my mind, anything in the 60-40 range might as well be 50-50 just because of how the polls have been off in both directions. Just this morning, underscoring that,

is a slew of polls from the New York Times. We can go ahead and put that on the screen. I mean, this should show you as close as it possibly can get for what the electoral map could look like. So the New York Times has Trump with significant strength in the Sunbelt battleground states. For example, in the state of Arizona,

They have Donald Trump at 50% to Harris's 45. You have Georgia, Donald Trump at 49% to Harris's 45. Both of those are actually quite good polls for Trump because previously you had seen things differently. I should note, at least for Georgia, that they are within the margin of error. And then in North Carolina, you have 49 to 47. I would put that North Carolina number effectively at

a tie, especially considering some of the North Carolina news we have later on in the show. But what we can learn, at least from this, is if you look at the overall polling average that they peg theirs against, Crystal, Arizona, they have a Trump plus five, the polling average Trump plus two. Georgia, they have Trump plus four, polling average is Trump plus two. North Carolina, the polling average is even, and they have Trump plus three.

So those are the latest polls that they are pegging themselves. You should also look to some of the past polling where they didn't necessarily have Trump up nearly this much.

in the state of Arizona. But, you know, now is crunch time. Most people, a lot of people actually, as swing voters, some past data indicates they don't really make up their mind until about three to four weeks before the election. That could change because you can vote a lot earlier now these days. So maybe right now is like really the crunch time for people and how they're thinking about the elections. But you should just consider, you know, if you do watch a show like this or you're reading the news or any of that, you're

kind of an outlier relative to the general population and how they think about politics and all that can actually change significantly. And in such a close election like today, it's make or break time for both the candidates. I mean, we're just waiting to see which way the polling mist goes this time. Yeah, I just don't know. Yeah, exactly. And that's nothing against the pollsters. It's gotten increasingly hard to poll for understandable reasons. Like, you know, people are on cell phones. There's a low response. Then you have these response rate biases where when something happens that one side is really excited about, then they want to pick up

the phone and talk to the pollster, et cetera. So, you know, it's very perplexing to look at like the New York Times Sienna polls that just came out, which are really bad for Kamala Harris, and then look at the NBC News polls that just came out, which are really good for Kamala Harris. But the truth of the matter is, you know, both of them, if you factor in the margin of error, are continuing to show a really tight, really close race. I do want to dwell for a second on the Nate Silver model because, you know,

Part of why he was so pessimistic about Kamala Harris coming out of the convention where other models showed more strength for her, and now the streams have crossed again and he has her as a very slight favorite, he had factored in, like, oh, I'm going to assume that she's going to get this two-point post-convention bounce, and so I'm going to basically, like,

back that out of my averages. And that's how we ended up showing so much Trump strength coming out of the convention. And now that the polls haven't shifted all that much,

And his model has shifted a lot. I think it's fair to say factoring that in may not have really been... Trump didn't get a convention bounce, so there were extenuating circumstances, Biden dropping out of the race, whatever. But I think also Kamala doesn't appear to have gotten that much of a convention bounce either. And backing that out and assuming that she did and then sort of like dinging her for that, I'm not sure that that actually...

bore out in reality, which is just a testament to the fact, look, again, you have to go based on history. That's what he's working on. This is, again, not to slam him or whatever. I know everybody's like doing their best they can with the data that they have. But I think it just shows you this is a very kind of locked in electorate. There's going to be very little movement between these two candidates. These polls are going to look like 50-50, basically from here to Election Day. And one other thing I wanted to flag as

especially in light of the new New York Times Sienna poll that shows Georgia with Trump with a little bit of an edge there. In general, I think the polls have tended to show him in Georgia with a little bit of an edge and him doing a little bit better in Georgia than North Carolina, which is kind of interesting as well and obviously a reverse of last time. But we just got the news out of Georgia that their board of elections, which has been stacked with a lot of sort of like hardcore Trump loyalists,

has now determined that they're going to require all Election Day votes to be hand counted. Hand counted. That means Georgia is going to take forever to come in on election night. Yes.

I think it's a horrible idea. I think it injects chaos into an already chaotic situation, but that's what they've decided. So just keep in mind, we are probably going to be waiting election night a long time to actually figure out what the heck is going on in Georgia. And then the other piece of that is,

the rural areas that are obviously stronger for Trump and obviously have very much lower population counts, they are likely to come in earlier than the larger population centers. So you could have this, what we had back in 2020, the quote-unquote red mirage in Georgia, where it looks like Trump is running way ahead because the areas that are stronger for Democrats come in later with this new hand counting, which I, again, think is a horrible idea, but that's what they've decided. Well, what they say is that it would...

Basically, it could take not even the day of, it could commence day of, but I mean, it could take up to weeks, apparently, according to some of the board members that are there. I do believe that this will undergo significant court challenge. So this isn't 100% just yet, both about feasibility. Some of the people who are against this are claiming that it's literally impossible to do, but it does demonstrate. I mean, look, this is always the chaos in the United States where all 50 states get to decide how they run legislation.

their own elections and they all have their own proclivities. On the other side of the coin for Kamala was a decent run coming out of NBC. Let's put this up there. On the screen, for example, we have her at registered polls. They claim a 5% lead, Harris 49, Trump 44. Quote, Harris favorability has jumped 16 points since July, according to them. The largest increase for any politician in NBC since Bush's 43 standing surge

after 9-11. That's crazy. Yeah, that is crazy. If we continue in the battleground run, let's go to this one. But this does show really a similar story where, according to them, in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris is actually leading and or tied. So they have Michigan at 50-48 for Harris. Pennsylvania, they have 49-49, basically tied. Wisconsin, they have 50-48 for Harris. So she, of

according to them, is showing strength in those traditional blue wall states. In Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, though, they had her up, for example, in Arizona and down by one in Georgia, up by three in Nevada, and then up by one in the state of North Carolina. When you combine it, though, with New York Times-Siena, I think you do see a pretty significant 50-50. Basically, both

All of these are like 50-50. Any one that shows her winning. Also, there's an equally decent one to show her losing. In terms of the betting markets, there has been an interesting move. If we could go to Polymarket, please, and put A5 on the screen. Polymarket, which currently has about a billion dollars worth of bets...

on the presidential election has Kamala at 52-47 as of yesterday. I just checked it, and it looks like it's 51-47 now. So there you go. Basically, 50-50. Again, for anybody who isn't avid better, you would know that there's...

Yes, there's significant upside, I think, for the people who are working spreads and others for 52-47. But you could just see there that that is as close to tie as it gets. And, you know, Harry Enten over at CNN, he's got decent analysis. And he always tries to point out this is the closest election in almost 60 years here in the United States. And if that's the truth, on election day, I think we should all just be comfortable with the fact that we're not going to go there. We're not going to.

We are almost certainly not going to know the results of the election on the day of, especially if that Georgia number remains where it is. Recall last time around, nobody was able to officially call the election, what did you say, five days in 2020? There's going to be some difference because there won't be as many mail-in ballots possibly and all of that. But, you know, be comfortable with patience and be comfortable with just waiting for a lot of data because that's just, it looks like that's the direction that things are going, that are going now.

I have not reconciled myself to that reality. Oh, I'm not saying I'm happy with it. Not preferable outcome, but. Yeah, well, last time, I mean, if recollection serves, sometime 2 a.m., 3 a.m., it became pretty clear that it was going to be Joe Biden. You know, that's when you started to get a, you know, clearer sense of Arizona, clearer sense of Georgia, Pennsylvania. But as you said, it took time.

before I think Fox News was the first to officially call it, right? Yes. Over a very questionable Arizona call. Hey, they ended up being right. They ended up being right, but that's like being right on roulette. They ended up being right. But then...

Then, obviously, I mean, this is the thing is when it's close, then it opens the window for Trump tried this last time. I don't think there's any reason we should expect him not to try this time again if he is on the losing end of a close election to do everything he can to go to the courts and gum up the works and claim it's stolen. And, you know, they're already in a lot of ways setting the stage for that. So just buckle up because here we go again. Yeah, that's right. Be comfortable with ambiguity. That's where things stand as of right now.

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All right, let's get to Oprah, as Crystal said, and we'll review. So as you guys will remember, Akama and Oprah set up a big campaign event, notably not an interview, although they tried to make it look a little bit like an interview. We had some of the choice moments of the event, which was basically scripted and mostly on teleprompter. From what we could see, let's take a listen. What is on your heart to say to the American people as we have 47 days left

Until November 5th. What's on your heart? To say that particularly those people who are still undecided or maybe indifferent or on the fence still. We love our country. I love our country. I know we all do. That's why everybody's here right now. We love our country. We take pride in the privilege of being American. And this is a moment where...

We can and must come together as Americans, understanding we have so much more in common than what separates us. Let's come together with the character that we are so proud of about who we are, which is we are an optimistic people. We are an optimistic people. Americans, by character, are people who have

dreams and ambitions and aspirations. We believe in what is possible. We believe in what can be. And we believe in fighting for that. That's how we came into being, because the people before us understood that one of the greatest expressions for the love of our country, one of the greatest expressions of patriotism,

is to fight for the ideals of who we are, which includes freedom to make decisions about your own body, freedom to be safe from gun violence, freedom to have access to the ballot box, freedom to be who you are and just be, to love who you love openly and with pride, freedom to just be.

- Hmm. - Freedom to just be. It took a while to get there. I mean, I think the main problem I have with a lot of these answers is that she always takes forever to actually get to anything about others. And it's not just like, "Well, in America," and the weird inflection, also the hand gestures is very Ricky Bobby.

ask to me, even though it was literally on a teleprompter, she knew the question that was there from photos that were from the background. I just couldn't believe that that's the best you can come up with. It reminds me of Dana Bash interview, which is like, what's your day one agenda? She's like, well, it's like takes forever to get there. She always does the like, she didn't do it in this answer, but she always does the

I grew up middle class. It's like a meme. It's like a meme now at this point. I grew up in a middle class family. But I have to tell you, I mean, it is wild to see, we talked earlier about how much her favorability rating has skyrocketed. And, you know, I think she's trying to go for the generic Democrat vibe. And that's what this answer feels like. It's like, let me just throw in a bunch of Barack Obama-esque

buzzwords about like unity and what unites us is greater than what divides us and we fight and we have values and whatever and just like put it all together and serve it out to you and you know that's that's kind of what the vibe she's going for and so I think that you know that's consistent with the answer she gave it's also the sort of thing I don't know for whatever reason I think cuz Trump is so wild and

That now that she's the standard bearer and not Biden, it hits for people a little different because it does just feel like very sort of normal politician speak. And it's like for a decent chunk of America, roughly 50 percent, they're like, yes, just give me something that's that sounds kind of normal. Like, that's all I want. And that's what you know, that's the spot she's landing in. Yeah.

She did give at least one interesting answer on guns. Let's take a listen. So powerful at the convention when you said you have guns. No, at the debate. I'm a gun owner. Timberlake is a gun owner. I did not know that. If somebody breaks in my house, they're getting shot. Sorry. Yes, yes. I hear that. I hear that. Probably should not have said that. My staff will deal with that later. Yeah.

Okay. All right. So you'll recall Kamala said she was a gun owner. What was it during her DN? No, it was during the debate. That's what it was. And I actually doubted it. I was like, come on. But apparently people went back and checked 2014. This has been a long standing thing. I will say in the state of California, you know, if somebody breaks into your house and you do shoot them, good luck with the police because you've got some, there's, I believe they have a duty to retreat thing on their books. For those of you who are into self-defense law, you know what I'm talking about. But

But anyways, there are two ways you could look at that. One, and I saw a lot of right-wingers being like, look, she's losing so badly that she's trying to come after us in terms of shoot somebody who's breaking into your house. I don't think there was a lot of strategy behind that comment. I think it was just her trying to be, quote, hashtag relatable. I don't know what else to say about it.

Yeah. I saw a lot of right-wingers sharing this too and I was like, I don't think that this really is serving your cause that much because yeah, I mean, if it's strategic at all, which I agree with you probably isn't. Yeah, I don't think it was. It's a play to like, see, I'm not the like crazy liberal coastal elitist you think I am. Like, I'm a gun owner and I like also want to defend my home which is again very relatable sentiment so I don't know. She pulls it off. I think she pulls it off. I don't think so. I think

I think she does. If you are familiar, a California person saying that, oh, I'm going to shoot you. If it's like, okay, then, you know, good luck. She doesn't even live in California anymore. You're right. She lives in Washington, D.C. Ten times worse of a gun-owning state. Let's put the last one up there on the screen. If she's in the White House, I don't think she's going to have to be worrying about her own self-defense.

defense anymore. That's another. I think she's probably going to be, you know. A lot of these people are anti-gun, got a lot of security around them. What we've got here is a new Fox News, Howard University poll. This was actually another interesting moment from the interview about likely black voters in swing states. Has Kamala at 82, Donald Trump at 12, undecided at five. That was where Trump was in 2020. According to this, just again, this is one poll indicating he's not quote unquote gaining black votes. Here's the only reason that I do doubt

that is that Trump's strength in the Sun Belt does indicate that he has got more strength amongst people who are minorities by definition because of the Georgia and the Arizona and Nevada electorates. So if you look at his gains in those states and actually his

where his tightest and worst states were relative to 2020 and 2016, it was in the wider states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And in fact, some of the crosstab polling where we have seen Kamala's strength in some of the battleground states in the upper Midwest have been because specifically of gains amongst white voters in much wider states on average than the rest. So you take that for what it is, but there was an interesting moment. Emily and Ryan covered it, the Kamala at the Black

black journalist event where she's like, look, I'm not taking black votes for granted. And I mean, honestly, you shouldn't, you know, looking again at the Georgia strength, at the Trump strength in Arizona. And if we look again at those 2020 returns of Donald Trump, specifically in the Laredo and South Texas area among Hispanics, and then you put that on top of Nevada and Arizona, you could see very clearly that there is some strength

there for Trump amongst Latinos. And actually, Kamala, for example, is running Spanish-only language ads on border security alongside Ruben Gallego. So the difference in the national conversation compared to how they're trying is totally separate from what it actually looks like at an executing level. I

I think one thing you can definitely say, Joe Biden did obviously very well with black voters back in 2020. Their support had waned vis-a-vis Joe Biden. I think one thing that is very clear since Kamala Harris has become the standard bearer is that she has improved those numbers significantly.

Is she all the way back to where Joe Biden was in, say, 2020? You know, this poll would indicate. I've seen other polls that would indicate that that's the case. Hard to say exactly. But, you know, she is improving her margins with black voters, with Latino voters, certainly with younger voters as well over where Joe Biden was.

was when he was in this race, not necessarily matching on all of those totals where he was in 2020 with a winning coalition. So it's something to keep an eye on, you know, as a question of whether that narrative about Trump winning over black voters may have been overstated, you know, question mark, put a pin in it right now and we'll watch what develops with more polls.

Yep, that's right. All right, well, let's get now to our conversation with election forecaster. You've seen him before here on the show. As a reminder, this is going to be exclusive to our premium subscribers. Otherwise, you guys can wait and you can watch it for free sometime later. But let's get him in here and let's talk.

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So we also have some news about whether or not there is going to be another Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump debate. Kamala Harris has accepted a debate invitation. Let's put this up on the screen. She says she will gladly accept a second presidential debate on October 23rd. I hope Donald Trump will join me. He seemed to be at a rally less receptive

Two, that it's a CNN debate invitation, by the way. Fox News, I think, had also invited them to a debate, but she specifically accepted the CNN debate invitation. He seemed less amenable to doing another debate anywhere. Let's take a listen to what he had to say. And they would like, just announced a little while ago as I was coming off the plane, they would like to do another debate. Although good entertainment value. A lot of people say, oh, it's great entertainment. I've already done two.

One with Crooked Joe Biden at CNN and the other one with Kamala on ABC. CNN was very fair, I thought. Joe was driven out of the race. He was it was a coup, by the way, but he was driven out of the race. And they've been widely criticized by the radical left lunatics for all of the fairness. They were very fair. In other words, they won't be fair again.

Because they took a lot of abuse from the radical left. ABC was three on one. But I was given credit for having done a very, very good job. I appreciate that. We did a great job. It was three on one. The problem with another debate is that it's just too late. Voting has already started. She's had her chance to do it with Fox. You know, Fox invited us on and I waited and waited and waited.

They turned it down. They turned it down. But now she wants to do a debate right before the election with CNN because she's losing badly. You know, it's like a fighter. She sees the polls. She sees what's happening. She's losing badly. But it's like a fighter who goes into the ring and gets knocked out. The first thing he says is, I want to rematch. I want to rematch.

All right. You know, it's funny because he undercuts himself a little bit here by saying that CNN was like very fair to him. Yes. Since this is the radical left is criticizing them for all the fairness is what he says. But this is another CNN debate invitation. So if they were so fair last time, why not? Why not do another one? And it is kind of perplexing to me because I do feel like.

He would very likely improve his performance over last time. He's clearly, they've clearly, the race is 50-50. He's got a very good shot at winning, right? But he also has very clearly failed to define her in a negative way. You know, her favorability rating has gone up a lot and they have not really been able to ding that effectively. So it was another shot for him to sort of dirty her up. From her perspective too, I understand why she wants to do it again because it wasn't really

really well for her last time. And she did get a bump in the polls after the debate, somewhat of a bump in the polls after the debate. So if you do another one and you have a similar result and you, you know, draw him out and bait him in the way you did the first time around, you've got another chance to, you know, get a little bit of a bump in the polls coming into election day. So in my opinion, the logic for both of them, given how close the race is,

is that they should have another debate, but it's looking unlikely given Trump's now repeated comments that he's not interested in one. - Absolutely, and I think Trump really should have done another debate because also, something we just talked about with our election forecast segment and previously was that most people who are swing voters, and I know this sounds anathema,

They don't make up their mind until very shortly before the election. An October 23rd debate would be good for Trump because that is when the country is dialed in. I mean, these long campaigns, I know everybody is sick of them, but unless you are a real political animal, most people don't pay any attention until about statistically about three weeks before election day.

So you want to have those. I mean, those debates were scheduled there for a reason because that's when most people were paying attention. That's when the stakes are highest. That's when you could confront the possibility of the October surprise and you get to respond and all that. And the problem for Trump right now is his overall profile level is down. So, for example, we're going to talk a lot about this tomorrow.

but looking at data just this morning, that shows that the amount of rallies that he is doing today versus 2016, significantly down. I mean, I'm talking like orders of magnitude. So his ability to take over the news cycle is different. He's not the novel character that he was.

In 2020, at least he was the president and it was COVID, so people were glued to their phones. Right now, he's less in control of the cycle than ever before. Now, this actually could be to his advantage, so let me give the bull case for what he's doing.

The overall polling I'm looking at on splits say that people think Kamala is too liberal and they don't view Trump as too conservative. I'm not saying that that is correct. I'm saying that's what people say. So you don't want people to remember Trump in a recent light. You want to remember him in a fond like, hey, gas prices were low under Trump. Yeah, you want the rose-colored glasses.

Yeah, the more recent New York Times polling, the number one reason for Trump's strength in all the Sunbelt states, which are the most economically dynamic, is I felt like I was better off under Trump. Then Trump today doesn't matter. Kamala is the only thing he should remain a flashpoint. So I could make the case either way, but Trump is a very skilled debater. He's a good politician. I want him out there if I'm on his team.

You know, and also leaving it to, the last word now goes to J.D. and to Tim Walsh. Why would you ever want to give the last word to your vice presidential candidates? Right. That doesn't make any sense because it's not about you. Right. You know? And J.D. Vance has, of all the candidates, he has the lowest favorability rating. So he's like, you know, the weakest part of your campaign to put out there. I mean, he's fine on cable news as an attack dog. But yeah, in terms of like actually winning people over for the campaign, that's a different story. I mean, I think,

I think in some ways we kind of overthink this with Trump. The rally data really points to it. I think he's just, you know, he's older. Like... That's possible. He doesn't want to do as much. Even his own aides in the article about how his rallies are down, like, yeah, he wants to spend more time in Mar-a-Lago. He just doesn't want to do them as much, you know? And look, relatable, I'm sure, you know, especially given how old he is at this point. But I think that's a big part of it. The first one didn't go well. He got...

directly counter to what he says about how Grady did and how she lost and it was terrible for her, etc., etc. The polls overwhelmingly showed, even among Republicans, many Republicans also thought that he lost. The one part of it that came out of it that he thought apparently was a win was the Haitian pets thing, which at least

made the news cycle into something that he had said, but this also did not end up being a positive or good story for him or something that, you know, for him to focus on that moved the campaign forward. So, yeah, I think it didn't go well for him. He didn't enjoy the experience and he just doesn't want to do it again. I

To me, it's kind of what it comes down to because from a campaign logic rationale, unless you really are so convinced that it's going to go just as poorly for you second time around as it did the first time, it really doesn't make a lot of sense. So the other thing is, you know, Kamala gets to say, she gets to look tough. Like, listen, I said I would do it and he won't do it. It really negates all the conversation, the very legitimate critique of her that, you know, she still isn't really doing interviews. She isn't doing press avails, et cetera. She's been very closed off to the press. Tim Walz, too, can...

Which I don't understand because I thought the whole reason you put this man on the ticket is because he's great on cable news. He's also been largely hidden from the press. But it really takes the focus on that because it gives the vibe of like, oh, well, she wants to go out there and engage in the democratic process. He's the one who's hiding and doesn't want to do the debate. So if I were her, I would also say, hey, yeah, we'll even do the Fox News debate if you want.

You know, I'm open to that as well. I agree. And call his bluff because I think he's just set on, I don't want to do anymore, period, end of story. And we saw that in his Fox News interview where he was like, well, I don't want the Fox News moderator to be Martha or Brett. I would want him to be like Jesse Waters and Sean Hannity, which obviously is never going to happen. That's why I would have called the Fox News bluffing.

particular because Brett Baier and Martha McCallum, like, look, you can think what you want. Are they right-leaning? Yeah, but they're not bad. They've moderated a decent amount of debates. They would do a fine enough job. And look, I've seen Brett press Trump before and Trump can get himself into actually some serious issues. So my point is that it would put him in, uh,

It would rhetorically be a good move for her. Overall, this shows the weaknesses of both of these candidates. Trump is just all over the place. He does whatever he wants. But I also think Kamala is very risk-averse and only agreeing to this. So for example, Tim Walz has done less interviews than even Kamala Harris. Kamala is doing what she's done at

I believe two or three. She's done, according to Axios, the least amount of interviews of any major candidate in modern American history. Trump, at the very least, does these press conferences or he's doing random stuff. Everyone, Cheryl Atkinson or whatever. Look, I'm not saying it's great, but it's something. And they last for 45 minutes. And even when the interviewer is friendly, interesting stuff sometimes comes out of it. I think she, at the very least, should be doing something like that. But they are very, very risk averse.

probably an inheritance of the Biden team. I could be wrong. But overall, this is bad for America and for, because now the election will be litigated through proxies and worse, through ads. Ads are a terrible way to experience politics.

politics. Kamala Harris wants to do this. Donald Trump and J.D. Vance want to destroy this country. It's the worst possible way to actually engage with elections. And I think it leaves a lot more up to chance when you would have a lot more control

Like we just spoke with Logan about, you know, the reason that Kamala did well in the state of Pennsylvania relative to every other battleground state is because more people in Pennsylvania watched the debates than any other state per capita. There's a lesson in that. There's a, you know, risk and reward. That's what politics ultimately really is about. And right now, both of them are taking the most risk-averse strategy. Which is crazy because neither one of them can afford that. Yes. That's the thing. I mean, I would say...

Kamala is being very risk averse on the media, on the debate. She's being more bold. And I just cannot understand why they are not using Tim Walz as more of an asset on cable news. Because that, again, is like how he got the job. She didn't really know him. He went out on cable news. He said the weird thing. People loved it. They were like, you know, sharing all his clips.

He was really great at it, quick on his feet, even when he got asked things that were a little bit challenging about his agenda being too liberal or whatever. He was very talented at it. So, okay, you've got this asset on your side that you put on the ticket. Why are you hiding him? That part doesn't make any sense to me. Hiding her makes a little more sense to me because—

she can be more unsteady in these interviews. She's more of a cautious politician. She's more uncomfortable in unscripted settings. So far, they've done a really great job of protecting her from any moments that would be a train wreck for her. So I'm not saying it's good. It's not good, obviously, for democracy. It's a terrible precedent to set. It's one that was in some ways already set by Biden back in 2020. When he did so little over the excuse of the pandemic, she's

carrying that mantle forward and basically betting that she can get away with it. And it, it may be the correct bet, but the Tim Walls piece just strategically makes really no sense to me whatsoever. Yeah. The whole thing is very risk averse. It's very much like, I want to make sure that everything is very tightly controlled. Oprah event is a good example. It's a fake interview and you don't, it's not even particularly good. So you got to put yourself out there. We got to see what happens in general. It's bad for America to only have one debate. You

you know, on the issues, et cetera. The feedback, actually, if you look at that debate, Crystal, was for some of the independent voters who weren't swayed by Kamala were like, all I saw was performance and I didn't see substance. That's a lesson. You know, people are at...

Look, many people often lie about what they really want whenever it comes. But I do believe them whenever they say I want to feel as if there is more substance behind them. Whether they believe the substance or want any of that, it's very, that's dubious. I mean, they did put like the literal performer in chief, Donald Trump into the White House. So the performance does sell.

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All right, let's get to this. North Carolina. Teased a lot of times here. This is a really wild one. So in the state of North Carolina, in addition to the presidential race, which is obviously hotly contested, they also are electing a new governor. Democrat Josh Stein is up against the current lieutenant governor, Republican Mark Robinson. Robinson has a history of quite...

crazy comments, including, you know, dabbling in Holocaust nihilism and the like. However, CNN was able to unearth comments made by Robinson on a porn site forum called Nude Africa.

Over a number of years. Now, this was, you know, over a decade ago. So keep that in mind. Perhaps he's shifted his views. But and before I go into them, just, you know, I don't know about you. I am quite convinced that this was him. They cross-checked the email. He claims it's not him. It was he used his own name.

Disqualifying in and of itself, okay? An email address that he's used in many other instances, you know, sort of publicly available email address. It was a username, mini soldier or something like that. Which has been linked to him. Which has been linked to him that he's used also in the past. Look, they gave him opportunity to comment. He denied it, so we're presenting you all the facts. But... His own, how about this? The people who work for him, they believe it. Let's put it that way. Shall we? Yes. All right, so let's put this up on the screen. I'll give you some of the quote-unquote highlights of what they found here. Headline is...

"I'm a black Nazi. North Carolina GOP nominee for governor made dozens of disturbing comments on a porn forum." So in addition to saying, "I'm a black Nazi," he also said, "Slavery is not bad. Some people need to be slaves. I wish they would bring slavery back. I would certainly buy a few."

Also with regards to Barack Obama, he said, I would take Hitler over any of the shit that's in Washington right now, referring again to Barack Obama. Also with regards to former President Obama, he said, get that effing commie bastard off the National Mall when he was – when they had first unveiled the new MLK Jr. statue of MLK himself. He said, quote,

I'm not in the KKK. They don't let blacks join. If I was in the KKK, I would have called him, trigger warning, this is a racial slur, Martin Lucifer Kuhn.

Robinson posted on the site. There was also a lot of disturbing sexual material here, including him describing in great detail his, quote, own sexual arousal as an adult from the memory of secretly peeping on women in public gym showers as a 14-year-old. He described himself as a perv, and he also expressed enjoyment, this may be his biggest issue with the Republican base, of watching transgender porn.

So those are some of the things that he posted there. I'm not going to read the next part. I'll just put it up on the screen. There were also elaborate fantasies that he went into great detail about, about his wife's sister.

His literal sister-in-law. Imagine being his wife. I can't. Imagine being his wife. Okay, we can take that down. Also, after the internet got a hold of and different reporters got a hold of this username that he had apparently been using in all kinds of different contexts, including on this porn forum,

They found all kinds of things that this username was connected to, including it seems he took his Black Nazidom relatively seriously because we can put this up on the screen. He was also signed up for German lessons.

on Duolingo using that username as well. I believe he also was in the Ashley Madison link, leak, which is a website dedicated to people who want to cheat. Cheat on their spouses. And have affairs. And so, yeah, a lot there. This all came out, by the way, just to give a little bit of the backstory. Was it Friday that this all happened? Yeah, I believe it happened. Thursday or Friday. Yeah. I don't remember. Thursday or Friday. Anyway. Okay.

We got this indication that the Trump campaign was trying to talk him into dropping out of the race. North Carolina obviously being critical. The ballot deadline for him to drop out was literally the night that all of this dropped. So everyone was sitting around on Twitter waiting for this news to drop. Ultimately, it comes out. And he has denied it. Again, I think this is...

not the right direction to go in, in terms of dealing with these comments. Like it is, in my opinion, obviously him. And what would be a better approach would be to be like, oh, that was a long time ago. I was just trolling. Like I was just being an internet troll. Instead, he rather unbelievably denies that this is him whatsoever. Let's take a listen to what he has to say. The people here of North Carolina know I have been completely transparent about my history, all the warts. We put them all out. We let folks know about it.

But the folks here also know my character. They know who I am. They know my voice, so to speak. This is not my voice. This is not things that we would ever say or even think. And so absolutely we do.

How do you explain all of the matching details on this profile? The profile on Nude Africa lists your full name as Mark Robinson. The email listed on the account is an email that you have used elsewhere on the internet, including with your photo. You have used that name, Mini Soldier, on multiple social media accounts, including Twitter, Pinterest, Black Planet, and YouTube. How can you deny with all of these matching details that this is you?

Look, I'm not going to get into the minutiae of how somebody manufactured these salacious tabloid lies, but I can tell you this. There's been over $1 million spent on me through AI by a billionaire son who's bound and determined to destroy me. The things that people can do with the internet now is incredible. But what I can tell you is this. Again, these are not my words. This is simply tabloid trash being used as a distraction from the substantive issues that the people of this state are facing. So anyway-

He did not drop out of the race. He is still in the race, although he has apparently three campaign staffers left. Everyone else resigned. Yeah, go ahead, Sagar. Let's put this on the screen, all right, just so we all understand. Robinson now won't appear at Trump's North Carolina rally. So from what I understand from the backstory is that this was all known during the primary.

But Republicans decided not to drop it against him because Donald Trump endorsed him and they were pretty clear that Mark Robinson was going to become the eventual GOP nominee and they didn't want it to hurt. So this information has been out there amongst opposition researchers and others for quite a long time. Now you put that together with the fact

that this comes out now before the deadline. It was actually, it appears to be have been Republicans who likely leaked this to try and force him off the ballot to salvage their chances. Robinson, of course, is such an egomaniac that he decided to stay in the race. Donald Trump will no longer appear with him on the

ballot, and this is now in what is very likely a very significant and perhaps even the tipping point state. So for example, let's put this up there on the screen. Just look at where the polling average is right now for North Carolina. Trump 47.5, Harris 47.4. It could not be closer. So we have a Mastriano level event that is currently happening now in this overall statewide election.

And in a 50-50 race, let's say that he cost Trump even 20,000 votes. I mean, Donald Trump only lost the state of Georgia by some 10,000 votes last time around. The margin of victory was only, what, 50, 60,000 votes, I think, over a couple of states. You just have to consider how close this is. Something we also talked about with Logan, the election forecaster, was that this could also convince some Republicans to not come out to vote.

It could be a depressive effect. So it could be, there's a multi-conflux of events here. I'm not saying Trump could still lose or Trump couldn't still win the state of North Carolina. It's just that whenever it's 50-50, we shouldn't be screwing around with one of the most Googled politicians now in all of the United States.

people desperate for the lurid details and then coming up with BS excuses like, oh, it was AI, you know, that is taking me out. Yeah. You gotta at least have something better. Like I said, I at least just say, oh, I was just trolling. Like, you know, freedom of speech, like I was just being absurd. I would,

- Yeah, he should've just said it was a fake. - Or be more defensible. - Also, isn't he a pastor? He should've said, "I was addicted to porn. "I've been addicted to porn like many other young men. "I've seen the light." - Yeah, but okay, that doesn't excuse you saying you're a black Nazi who wants to own slaves.

Look, people got away with more. It was a phase. I mean, you could say that. Why not? It's all got carried away. I mean, there is a bigger consistent problem here for Republicans, which is they have an extreme candidate issue. You know, you've got this guy here. You've got Kerry Lake out in Arizona, who's very likely to lose that Senate seat to Ruben Gallego. You know, last cycle you had Mastriano, who you referenced.

You had Herschel Walker who now looks quite tame in comparison to this individual, Mark Robinson. So you also have a candidate quality issue where Republicans nominate people who have no prayer in hell of winning. A Republican gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina should be winning that state all day long or at least in contention. This is the sitting lieutenant governor, right? You should at least be in contention.

And instead, the polls already have them down by double digits. It's probably only going to widen. I mean, you're talking about probably a Democratic victory for governor in that state by like 15 points. That's insane in North Carolina, all because of the dude that you nominated. So I mean, there's a deeper reckoning for the Republican Party where it's like, you know, some of the wilds. I'm not saying Trump has said anything like I'm a black Nazi. Okay, I'm not trying to. But some

of the wilder things that Trump does say he can get away with and other candidates cannot get away with. So, yeah, I don't know what what turns that particular piece around for the Republican Party. But I'll tell you, Democrats are running wild with this. Trump had called Mark Robinson, quote, Martin Luther King on steroids. I mean, he is bigger than him. He is bigger than Dr. King.

They've taken that clip and any other time that he endorsed him, because prior to this incident, Robinson, in spite of other many insane things that he said in the past that are documented, they were, you know, he was a regular at their campaign events. He was a speaker at the RNC. It's not like they were keeping this guy at an arm's length distance whatsoever. And so they're going to make as much out of that as they possibly can. And, you know, in the state of North Carolina, if it succeeds in knocking a half a point off of Donald Trump, that's

may be all that they need to be able to claim that state. And the map becomes very difficult for Trump if he loses North Carolina. - That's why it's probably the most significant. And this is a statewide election. This is something where they could tie them together. Look, it is possible.

You just don't want to be dealing with this nonsense whenever things are as tight as they are. And you referenced the aides. I mean, the guy who's running his campaign now is literally a convicted felon, Jack Bergman, somebody who— Who is this guy? He's a lawyer. He was involved in a whole bunch of schemes. He'd been indicted previously. At The Daily Caller, we used to deal with him quite a lot. Indicted for some kind of fraud or something? Except for felony. Yeah, I think it's something to do with that.

that. But my point was, is that I remember him, he used to run around with this other guy and they would often make major claims and do big press conferences. And then they got in big trouble with the feds for basically shopping oppo, except,

The point is, is that they're not sending their best to Mark Robinson's campaign. I'll put it that way. His top aides have resigned. His campaign manager, he's only got three people now that are left on staff. That's another problem where very often there's like a there's a real work together effect in these tight races where the Trump campaign will work with the gubernatorial campaigns. Coordinated campaign. Coordinated campaign. The campaign lingo for that.

Right, so you have a coordinated campaign. It's all about get out the vote. And now you lose statewide operations and people are going to go all in on Trump, but then now Robinson's name will be left off. So just overall, we're not looking at things that are good right now for Donald Trump in the state of North Carolina.

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Visit GuardianBikes.com to take advantage of these deals and secure your holiday season gifts today. Happy riding! The AI upscaling on the new Samsung Neo QLED and OLED TVs brings old content like from the 70s, 80s, 90s, and beyond into the future. ♪

So no matter how far back your shows are from, it'll look groovy, baby. It instantly soups up whatever you're watching. It's a super high quality, you dig? And no matter how fast your sports are booking it, it won't look bogus with lag or blur.

We're talking popping color and contrast on a glare-free OLED so your OG content looks fly, day or night. And these processors on the Neo QLED 8K are awesome sauce. They upscale every detail you're watching to look super, super sweet. Bro, are you pumped to see what happens when all your content gets brought into the future? Uh-oh, maybe that's too far into the future.

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This one took Washington by storm. This is a difficult one unless you literally live here and you kind of know the characters, but we will do our best. So let's go and put this up there. This is definitely the talk of the town. Oh, this is the talk of the town. Let's put it up there on the screen. This is a scoop from Oliver Darcy. He started his own newsletter called Status. He says...

Now, according to Oliver Darcy, this was Thursday night, he put out a story.

According to them, there had been a quote-unquote personal relationship between the two, which according to Nuzzi and to RFK, never became intimate in person. According to them, it was strictly online and restricted to the communications between the two. Now, since that report, there has been more that has come out giving us some of the alleged details. Let's put this up there on the screen.

The way that this all came out, according to New York Magazine, and again, there's a lot of according to's going on here, is that RFK Jr., according to them, had either been, quote, bragging or telling people that he had, quote, unquote, intimate photos of reporter Olivia Nuzzi. She's only 31. He's 70 years old. Those rumors got back to the editor of New York Magazine, who was actually in Europe. So how he heard about it, that's a very interesting story.

So according to them, that's what happened. New York Magazine editor-in-chief heard that RFK Jr. had been telling people this about this reporter, Olivia Nuzzi. He then confronted Nuzzi. Nuzzi allegedly denied it multiple times until she then confirmed the relationship. She's been put on leave as they do a quote-unquote investigation. Hard to see how she isn't fired. Now, if we move to the next part, the—

Basically, the backstory who is being pushed now by RFK and some of the people close to him. Let's put the New York Post, please. So according to them, quote unquote, Olivia Novey was obsessed and pursued RFK Jr. aggressively, and he had to block her. This was according to one of these journalists who was very close to RFK Jr. And she had written out. Her last name is literally Kennedy. Is she related? I was trying to figure that out.

I didn't want to make any guess. I just noticed that, yeah. According to them, what happened, basically the RFK Jr. story is that she hung out with RFK Jr. They did a hiking trip. She wrote about it. She talked about why he was a formidable candidate. Apparently after that incident, she had his phone number. By the way, all of us have his phone number. That's not like a secret thing. Most reporters have...

sources' phone numbers. She allegedly spammed him with nude photographs. RFK Jr. blocked Olivia Nuzzi. She then allegedly sent him an email saying that she had comment that she needed from him so that he would unblock her, and she then proceeded to bombard him with more nude images. That

is obviously a convenience story for RFK Jr., who is married, but that is their narrative of events. Nuzzi, for her part, has not put out anything like trying to absolve herself or any of the transcript. People are noting that she did send this tweet in 2015. Let's put this up there on the screen. Why does Hollywood think female reporters sleep with their sources? This was something that she wrote for New York Magazine. Not helping our cause here, Olivia. Not helping the cause, Olivia Nuzzi. I don't know. I guess there's a lot to say about this.

Well. Well, and she also, did you mention this, was engaged to Ryan Lizza. I didn't want to bring him into it, but you can go into it. I mean, that engagement is now off. Anyway, just to complete the tawdry affair. The background is that Lizza had previously been MeToo'd from New York, I think The New Yorker. Nobody ever got really the whole story, but he was fired, which was like very dramatic. And then eventually ended up, I forget exactly where he ended up.

ended up. But he resurfaced, he got himself a new job, and he'd been then with Olivia Nosey. And people were pointing to the tawdry kind of relationship there. But the whole point is- He's also another big, he runs Politico Playbook, which is like the insider. The insider. So they were like a real Washington power couple. I guess beyond that, really what it is, is not only like the nature of their relationship. According to them, they had broken up like a month or so before this entire story came out. So I don't know.

I don't know. I mean, beyond any of the personal stuff, I guess it just gets back to anytime something like this comes out in the open, it's a disgusting look at Washington. It really is like, look, a lot of this stuff, it happens and it doesn't actually come out and see the light of day. Probably the only reason it did is because RFK Jr. either couldn't keep his mouth shut or allegedly the real story is that he was getting bombarded with this. But I mean, he never complained, I guess, to her bosses. I don't know. The whole point is, this is messy. And-

Yeah, it's gross and I don't know. Yeah, I'm curious what you think. Let me take you through my emotional journey on this story, okay? So first of all, Kyle actually woke me up from a dead sweep to inform me of this news. I woke my wife up in the morning at 6.20 a.m. I go, holy shit. The level of difficulty my brain had comprehending the words that were coming out of his mouth, I wish you all could understand. So my first gut instinct, of course, was like, Jesus.

Jesus, you're just like 30 years old. You're seven. Like, what? Why would you do, like, you know, just sort of shock and kind of horror at the details here. As the story has progressed and we've learned more details, especially the fact he was bragging about it.

My emotions shifted to a lot of sympathy for her, not to excuse, you know, sleeping with a source or having a digital affair, they say, with a source or whatever. It's obviously unethical. I'm also sure it's something that, like, a lot of people in this town are engaged in. Which is, again, your point about, like, a little look into the way that a lot of this town will really operate. This isn't edge case, but there are a lot of people who do this. Yeah, so...

So anyway, my emotions have really shifted to a lot of sympathy for her because one thing, if you are here, like this is all anyone's talking about, ripping her to shreds, you know, saying all kinds of horrific things about her, et cetera, et cetera. But more to the point, like if you believe him that she was obsessed and just spamming him with nude pictures, like I have a bridge to sell you. This man is unknown. He used to have

to have in his phone some 38 mistresses while he was with his ex-wife, who ended up killing herself, by the way. So we're supposed to believe that she was so obsessed with the seven-year-old man that she was spamming him nudes and he was having to block...

I do not buy it. He has a wife. He doesn't want her to leave him. And so that's why, very likely, why he's saying what he's saying. The other thing is, there's nothing that disgusts me more than a man who goes around bragging about his sexual exploits and specifically bragging about the nude images of his girlfriend or his fling or his whoever, especially, and we don't know that this is the case, but it's

Especially when they share said images around with their buddies. There is nothing. There are a few things to me that are more disgusting than that. So that sequence of events has completely shifted me to just sympathy for Olivia again. It was unethical. I'm not excusing the behavior. It was perplexing. It was, in my opinion, a lot of things. But...

Yeah, the response to it has been disturbing to me as a woman. Well, okay. So the online reaction, I agree, is out of control. Yeah, it's out of control. She needs to get fired. I mean, this is out of control behavior. This is completely inexcusable. It's, look, you are irresponsible for the consequences of this.

of your actions. On RFK, look, I have no idea. I guess what would the cope be? That he wasn't bragging, he was telling people about it. IRL, what he should have done, and I don't know what exactly the case is, is go to the boss and be like, if this were true, right? So it'd be like, go to the bosses and be like, hey, your employee is totally out of control and this is what's happening. And that's part of the reason I'm sketched out is because

anybody who legitimately was like a target of being constantly bombarded would want to do something like that. Now here's my challenge to both of the parties. At this point, I'm sick of reading the background. Release the transcript. Blur out the images. All right, delete them. Nobody cares about the images. At this point, I want to see whether somebody was blocked, what the actual correspondence and all that was. And at this point for Nuzzi, I mean, you have only yourself to save here.

where you're being in the tabloids, people are saying that you were the one who was bombarding RFK with all of this. So Gavin DeBecker is currently quote unquote running the investigation. Something he did last time around, at least with the Jeff Bezos case, is they released all of the communications between when Bezos was caught like sending images, I'll just put it that way, to his current, what is it, fiance, Lauren Sanchez. It appeared to have been leaked by Lauren's brother, Michael, Michael.

Crazy story in terms of that background. The point is that DeBecker released all of the background with Jeff Bezos, where Bezos was like, screw you, I'm not paying any blackmail. You can see here for all the world to see. I think they do need to release it now at this point. One of them, because really it's the only way you can save any sort of...

any sort of credibility on this matter. But for Nuzzi, I mean, I think she's done. Like, I don't think he can come back from this one. That's it. Well, I think she's done at this current job. Can she come back over time? Sure. I don't know. She's very young. Hey.

She's talented. She's a talented writer. I read her profile of RFK. It was great. No, it was good. It was really good. She also wrote the good piece about, look, nobody's saying that you're not talented. Here's the other thing. It's so unethical. Here's the other thing, of course. Here's the other thing that's pissing me off, though, is that this has also led to a bunch of, like, Biden dead-enders. Yeah, that's funny, too. She wrote, I don't know if you guys remember this, but we read it. Yes. We probably covered it on the show. It was a good story, yeah.

She wrote one of the definitive accounts of Biden's decline that had a lot of inside the circle details about how donors were like seeing him in person and horrified by how he was unable to function, essentially. And now you've got a lot of Biden dead enders who are like, oh, you know, we should look

again at this article and basically dismiss it as being biased, et cetera, et cetera. If anything, the only problem with that article was how late it came in the game after it was already very clear that that decline was manifest. - It came out after the debate. - After the debate, yeah. - And it's clear that they held it and they had all that reporting prior and they didn't run it.

That was the only problem with that. It wasn't that she was too hard on Biden. It was that she went too easy on it, that it should have come out much earlier so that it could better inform the electorate about what was really going on behind the scenes. So that was pissing me off, though. Is she done? I mean, I don't know. A lot of people have been able to come back from a lot of terrible things.

Is she probably done at this job yet? Should she be? Yeah. I mean, you can't, like, you just can't, you can't. You can't conduct yourself like this. Conduct yourself like this with a source, with a, you know, reporting, someone you're reporting directly on, et cetera, et cetera. But in terms of the reaction, and I just, his reaction,

His side of the story, I'm sorry, I just don't. I just don't believe. I think he needs to release a transcript. I think it's disgusting that he was out there bragging about this. If he was really under, like you said, Zara, if he was really under such assault by this woman who, oh my God, poor me, she's spamming me nudes, then, like...

Are you okay? Are you doing all right? I'll tell you why this is sad. You know, he's married to Cheryl Hines. I love Cheryl Hines from Kurt Beer Enthusiasm. So first of all, we feel terrible for Cheryl, right? That's humiliating. She doesn't deserve this. No, but yeah, she doesn't deserve this. Uh,

I feel bad for Ryan and Lizza as well. You know, these are... Now we've had two basically relationships that are now either, you know, broken and or like significantly stressed. So let this just be, you know, like the major thing. Be like, be faithful to your spouse. Like, just don't put people through this, especially when you're in the public eye because it's really...

People don't deserve this. You know, they're outside actors. And now for her own career, it's really sad because I think she was very talented, but this will just be the scarlet letter, you know, for all time. I mean, Liz, like you said, you got a Me Too thing. He's recovered. I don't even remember his scandal. I don't even remember it. Yeah, but enough people do. And especially for her, like,

In terms of, it's one thing to have a Me Too scandal with somebody who's not a subject of major reporting, but to do it with a presidential candidate and be involved with them at the height of all of the attention around it, that just does code a little bit different. I don't know if that's... All I'm saying, I've seen people recover from a lot worse. And listen, maybe, I mean, look, maybe there is a gender dynamic here where because she's a woman, like it

hangs over her more heavily. The label of like, you know, oh, you're a slut who just is going to sleep around with your sources or whatever. Maybe that does hang over her more heavily. But the last thing I just have to opine on is I don't know if I buy that it wasn't physical. He also was caught lying already about, he said, oh, I only met her that once for the profile and then she wrote a hit piece on me. That wasn't true. They definitely have been

in, you know, at events together and other, you know, professional or potentially private settings together. So that already he's been caught in a lie. I don't know if I believe that it wasn't actually physical, that it was just digital, but in some ways like having a digital relationship. Oh, that's way crazier. Yeah, that's way worse. Seems kind of crazier to me, but I don't know. Listen, people do things. Maybe it's an advertisement for TRT. He's seven years old, but he's a young man on the inside.

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All right, let's get to it. All right, let's do the hardest turn of all time because we are now at a point of escalating chaos in the Middle East. We, of course, tracked last week how Israel was able to blow up the pagers and then the walkie-talkies of a lot of Hezbollah members. And then there was huge collateral damage. There were children who were killed. People were at public markets.

public marketplaces, et cetera. Then they started the out and out bombing campaign. And now we are getting incredibly, deeply disturbing indications that Israel plans an all out assault

on at least a portion of Lebanon, somewhat akin to what has already been done to Gaza. Here is Army Chief of Staff Daniel Higari effectively threatening all of the civilians, building the case

that inside of homes and other civilian infrastructure in Lebanon, that these are legitimate military targets. Again, sounds very familiar to the case that was made in Gaza in order to justify blowing up homes, schools, hospitals, mosques, and everything in between. Let's take a listen to a bit of what he had to say. About an hour ago, following indications that Hezbollah was preparing to fire towards Israeli territory,

we began striking terrorist targets throughout Lebanon. The Hezbollah terrorist organization has been continuously launching attacks on Israeli civilians and has no plans to stop. This is southern Lebanon. There are dozens of Lebanese villages situated along approximately 80 kilometers of the border with Israel.

For over 20 years, Hezbollah has deployed its arms inside homes and militarized civilian infrastructure. As a result, the Hezbollah terrorist organization has turned southern Lebanon into a battlefield. This is a village in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah stores cruise missiles, rockets, launchers, and UAVs inside civilian homes.

hidden behind the Lebanese population living in the village.

We are monitoring these activities, locating the weapons and destroying them with precise intelligence-based strikes. And sure enough, this morning, I'm looking at the New York Times right now. You've got, they say, scores, at least 100 people killed in southern Lebanon after Israel has begun a massive bombardment. We have some images from over the weekend that show you the size and the scale of this military operation. I mean, this is a huge blast.

that's depicted here. And we also have some images of a residential apartment building that was utterly demolished and leveled in this bombing campaign. According to reports, over the weekend, they pummeled southern Lebanon with strikes on about 400 different targets.

Hezbollah is responding with some rocket attacks as well, although largely theirs have been disrupted by the Iron Dome missile defense system. So, you know, effectively they're threatening to do in Lebanon what they did in Gaza. Civilians have been told to evacuate the area.

And the rhetoric that is being used is deeply disturbing. Let's put this next piece up on the screen. This is a voiceover. I'll just give you a sense of what the Israeli education minister said.

is saying on, this is channel 14, this is sort of like their Fox News-ish propaganda channel. He says, quote, there's no difference between Hezbollah and Lebanon. Lebanon will be annihilated. It will cease to exist. Again, this isn't some random fringe figure. This is an Israeli minister, member of the government.

Um, how did we get to this place of fresh horror? Well, let's put the next piece up on the screen. Uh, Biden administration, oh, they're extremely concerned about this risk of all out war, but are they going to do anything? No. Israeli officials are telling them that they're increasing attacks against Hezbollah are not intended to lead to war, but are an attempt to reach de-escalation through escalation.

Obviously, that is the most preposterous from an Axios report, by the way. This is the most preposterous idea you could possibly imagine. Hezbollah was not involved in the October 7th attacks. They've made it very clear that if there is a ceasefire deal that, you know, ends the hostilities and returns the hostages, that their bombardment, you know, the rockets that they've been firing into northern Israel would stop.

And yet because of Bibi's determination from the beginning to broaden this war and the Biden administration's failure to stop it by using any sort of leverage,

Here we are with the region just continuing to spiral, Sagar. Yeah, it's actually very terrifying. I mean, this is probably the closest that we are just yet. Now, currently, as of this morning, it just says we don't have an official number of what the death toll. I do love all of this de-escalation through escalation. Anytime anybody is selling you that, they are selling you a bridge. And that currently, I mean, really what stands out to me is the complete vacuum of U.S. leadership.

Our president is literally dementia-ridden, unable to accomplish anything in the Middle East. Our secretary of state is effectively a nobody throughout this entire thing. Israel did not clear any of its pager gambit with the United States, with its intelligence. Lebanon currently and Hezbollah are responding in whatever way they see fit. The Iranians are very involved, and the Israelis are just doing whatever they want to do. There are no checks on this entire system.

And we are the ones who are going to pay the bill. Like, let's all be very clear about what this means. Who do you think funds Iron Dome? Us. Who do you think responded to those Iran attacks? Us. Whose aircraft carriers are the ones that are securing any piece, whatever is left in the region? Us. If this goes big, Israel will suffer dramatically. I'm not saying they won't win. They probably will because they have a lot more firepower, but...

The amount of casualties they will suffer in a war with Hezbollah will be 10 to 100 times what they experienced in Gaza. Hezbollah is a very sharp and paramilitary force. They have much more Iranian backing. They have much better and sophisticated technology as evidenced by the fact they've been penetrated Iron Dome. And they've got more regional actors and others on their side with –

as evidenced by the fact that the Israelis take them much more seriously and the 2006 war still as a very black mark on the IDF that they've, you know, have always had to deal with for the domestic populace and its confidence in its military. So you can be rest assured, not only would we have to spend a ton more money, the likelihood of us getting involved here, I think would be almost tenfold relative to what happened with Gaza. And that is something that

I'm genuinely terrified by because if they're running out of weapons, just dropping JDAMs from a civilian population with no ability to shoot back, what does it look like whenever you actually have to fire not a peer military, but definitely a much more respectable fighting force? That is something I worry a lot.

lot about. So Haaretz estimates that there have been 182 killed in Lebanon in these new attacks and hundreds wounded. In retaliation, you now had 35 rockets fired by Hezbollah at Israel's, at military targets in Israel's north. Again, this mostly was intercepted by the missile defense system, Iron Dome. So I don't know that there were any Israeli deaths. But

you know, at the same time, we can't lose sight of the offensive in Gaza continues. They just bombed a school-turned-shelter with dozens killed there as well. They're floating a new plan to...

once again, fully evacuate Gaza City, which if you guys will recall, back, we're almost a year, we've almost come to a year anniversary. And back at the beginning of their onslaught, Gaza City was the first target. Everybody was forced to evacuate. Then they, you know, slowly moved south and destroyed everything in the entire Gaza Strip. Now you have some people who've come back north and now they're threatening to evacuate them all again and say, oh, if you don't leave, then you're a legitimate military target and we're going to kill everyone who remains.

This is what's being floated right now.

It's just so dark that the Biden administration has completely given up on a ceasefire. There's not even a prospect on the table anymore. You know, Bibi has sustained at this point, he's much more popular. I mean, he's recovered his popularity at this point and seems to have withstood the, you know, the continued protest movement. I'm not saying that there aren't still protests that are quite heated ongoing, but he seems to have withstood a lot of that. And there's just no end in sight.

There is no peaceful coexistence anywhere in sight. And we have spent a lot of time here talking about a potential day after, quote unquote, and what that, what day after? There is no day after. This is the plan. Like what we're looking at is just continued bombing, continued bombardment, continued slaughter, all of that. It's just indefinite in perpetuity.

That, as far as I can see, is the plan. To have no day after, that is the plan. And obviously, you know, the Israelis bear responsibility, the Israeli government bears responsibility for the war crimes that they have committed. But we also bear a lot of responsibility. We're the ones that our tax dollars are going to ship these weapons that are being dropped now on civilians in Lebanon and being dropped in Gaza. And, you know, the West Bank has been invaded as well.

And our political leadership has just decided that it's too hard to force Israel to stop so they're just gonna allow it to keep going. - Yeah, I read now, the US has directly warned Israel against opening a full-blown war with Hezbollah. This is from the Financial Times. - I mean, they already, like it's already over, it's done. The full-blown war is here. Now we don't have a ground invasion yet. - Yes, hopefully, yeah. - But, and that just again, from the beginning,

Post-October 7th, one of the very early on and consistently stated objectives of the Biden administration was to keep this from spiraling in a wider war. Now, it's been a wider war for quite a while now, but this is another big, big step.

Your policy failed. Like you are a complete and utter failure on a moral level, on American strategic interest level, on a just like level of humiliation and impotence. You are a total and complete failure. And now apparently you've just given up. You know, we're never going to get anything more than those like, oh, he's spoken difficult. Yeah, he had a tough conversation with baby. Who fucking cares? Like who cares? It does not. It obviously does not matter. And then at a certain point, you have to say, well,

Like if the strategy has been deployed consistently over all these months and you know the result it's going to get, then at some point you're like, okay, well, you're just lying that you have a different objective than Bibi. You have to be because you can't be so stupid as to not expect exactly the result that we're getting here. So it's incredibly dark. It's incredibly dark. And I think from the side of Hamas –

of Sinwar at all. They feel like they are willing to bear the cost of tens of thousands of Palestinians who have now been killed, potentially even up to 100,000 who have been killed according to some estimates, buried under the rubble, life made unlivable, communicable diseases, all the rest. And they think they can outlast the Israelis in that if there's enough of a security, they've sort of breached the security standards

status quo in Israel where they no longer feel safe and they believe that they can sort of outlast the Israelis. And it's like, you know, it's just death and horror. Death and horror, as far as you can see. That's unfortunately the grim picture we have this morning. Yep. All right. Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it. We'll keep everybody updated. As a reminder, we've got that exclusive election content from our premium subscribers, BreakingPoints.com. Otherwise, we'll see you all tomorrow.

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