Trump Wins. What's Next for Tech and The Economy? — With Dan Primack and Ana Swanson
Big Technology Podcast
Deep Dive
Why did Trump win the 2024 election?
Trump's win was largely attributed to economic issues, particularly inflation, and immigration. Voters experienced significant price increases across various goods, and Trump's simple, tough-on-trade and immigration messages resonated with many.
Will Trump's proposed tax cuts on tips, overtime, and Social Security go through?
The feasibility of these tax cuts is uncertain due to their high cost and the need for congressional approval. Some advisors are already considering scaling back these promises to make them more targeted and affordable.
What are the potential economic impacts of Trump's tariff policies?
Trump's tariff policies could lead to increased inflation as tariffs typically raise the cost of imported goods. Economists generally believe that tariffs punish consumers more than they punish foreign governments.
How might Trump's policies affect the semiconductor industry?
Trump's tariff threats and potential trade wars could disrupt the semiconductor supply chain, especially if China retaliates. This could impact companies like Nvidia and TSMC, which rely heavily on global supply chains.
What does Trump's victory mean for big tech antitrust policies?
With Lina Khan likely out as FTC chair, there may be a shift away from aggressive antitrust actions against big tech companies. Trump has historically been more favorable towards big business, potentially allowing more mergers and acquisitions to proceed without significant regulatory hurdles.
How might Trump's administration handle AI regulation?
Trump has been largely silent on AI regulation, leaving the future of policy in this area uncertain. It could range from unencumbered progress to significant regulatory hurdles, depending on who influences policy within the administration.
What role might Elon Musk play in Trump's administration?
Elon Musk is likely to have significant influence, particularly in areas like AI and space exploration. However, there may be a falling out between Trump and Musk due to their strong personalities and differing priorities.
What are the bull and bear cases for the Trump economy over the next four years?
The bull case includes inheriting a strong economy with technological tailwinds, particularly in AI. The bear case involves potential economic chaos from impulsive decisions, trade wars, and significant immigration restrictions, which could disrupt labor markets and supply chains.
- Inflation was a significant factor in the election, despite the economy performing well by objective standards.
- Trump's simple and appealing messages resonated with voters who felt uncertainty and lack of progress.
Shownotes Transcript