cover of episode Second Thoughts for Double Doubters

Second Thoughts for Double Doubters

2023/8/17
logo of podcast Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen
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Harry Enten
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Henry Olson
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Kyle Kondik
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Schuyler Kropf
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Harry Enten：本周的民调显示，拜登和特朗普的支持率不相上下，这与2020年大选时的情况大相径庭。这可能是因为两位候选人都很不受欢迎，导致出现了大量的"双重怀疑者"——即同时不喜欢拜登和特朗普的选民。这些选民在2016年大选时主要支持特朗普，但在2024年大选中的投票意向尚不明朗。此外，Enten还分析了民调的可靠性，指出民调结果只能作为参考，不能完全预测选举结果。他建议关注民调的来源、问题设计以及比较对象，警惕来路不明的民调机构、引导性问题以及将候选人与泛泛的"替代者"进行比较。他还认为，如果出现一个得票率在4%-5%左右的"主要"第三党候选人，可能会影响最终结果，尤其是在关键摇摆州。最后，Enten还谈到了拜登的民调支持率，指出其支持率没有提升，经济方面的支持率更低。 Henry Olson：Olson与Enten讨论了2024年大选的民调结果，并就"双重怀疑者"这一群体进行了深入探讨。Olson还就第三党候选人是否会对大选结果产生影响，以及拜登政府的经济政策是否会影响其支持率等问题，与Enten进行了讨论。

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Harry Enten discusses the reliability of polls, emphasizing that while they provide a good clue, they don't offer exact predictions. He explains how to interpret poll results, especially in close races, and warns against trusting unknown pollsters.

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It’s early days in the fight for 2024, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that it's shaping up like 2016 where the election was decided by voters who disliked both major party nominees. Henry calls these folks "Double Doubters" and doubles down with his guests this week to see who they are and what they think.Forecaster extraordinaire Harry Enten delivers insights that cut through post-2016 polling disillusionment; Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik has advice for Republican candidates who appear to be jostling for second place; and Post and Courier political editor Schuyler Kropf fills us in on the heretofore neglected heavyweight state, South Carolina.