cover of episode Into the Final Turn

Into the Final Turn

2020/10/24
logo of podcast Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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H
Henry Olsen
J
Jacob Rabushkin
K
Karlyn Bowman
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Karlyn Bowman：根据189份全国性民调数据显示，拜登的支持率持续稳定在50%以上，而特朗普的支持率仅在32份民调中达到45%以上。这种稳定性预示着选举结果的稳定性，与以往大选相比，拜登的支持率持续高于50%，且未出现大量未决定的选民，这与希拉里当年的情况大相径庭。此外，老年选民群体也出乎意料地倾向于支持拜登，这可能是由新冠疫情和对特朗普个人形象的负面评价共同造成的。最后一场总统辩论对选民意见的影响有限，大多数选民的投票意向并未改变。许多共和党参议员在各自州的民调中落后于特朗普，这使得他们更容易受到影响。近年来，选民的选票越来越趋向于党派化，很少出现“分票”现象。本次选举的民调在最后几周没有出现通常的收紧现象，这很不寻常。“有些大学学历”的群体和白人天主教徒是预测选举结果的重要参考群体。 Henry Olsen：与Karlyn Bowman的讨论主要围绕对美国大选民调结果的解读和未来走势的预测。讨论中，双方就老年人选民的投票倾向变化、最后一场总统辩论的影响、以及参议院选举的形势等问题进行了深入探讨。

Deep Dive

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The discussion focuses on the stability of the presidential race, with Biden consistently leading over Trump in national polls, and the lack of undecided voters.

Shownotes Transcript

Only ten days to go and about 1/3 of the ballots have already been cast. Can Donald Trump come from behind? Can the Republicans hold the Senate? Polling expert Karlyn Bowman and election analyst Jacob Rabushkin help us answer these questions. And a special guest appearance by the late Mao Tse Tung on the Ad of the Week – only on Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen! Source)