ROLLUP: ETFs Flop? | BTC on U.S. Balance Sheet? | Polymarket Booming | Japan Tanking Markets
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Back the nation, IT is the last week of Julia's time for the bank. Less weekly role of this was the first week, the first weekly rolled up, I should say, where we have an atheist etf. I got to just promises made, promises kept. Bankers always delivers every time except the weeks we don't.

So after two days of trading of the the e tf went life on tuesday this week. What do the number say? How did the etps perform? Is IT all the buzz wall street? Or was IT a flop also in the addition to all of these speculative rumors about trumpeting bitcoin on the fed, balancing continue to heat up bitcoin as a reserve asset, not just in theory. What's going on with all this .

speak of politics commonly, heroes is now the defeated democratic presidential nominee after job and step down. So the big question on everyone's mind at least, and cypher on our minds, David, is what's policy and crypto? She's opportunity to maybe vivid. She's going to what if we had both phenomenes that were actually procreative?

If and I think we might be able actually get that answer from Polly market, which continues to just penetrate the world of mainstream references, the market has some incredible creating volume, even more incredible than the ones that we talk about last week. So we going to talk about them again and also some survey results that ryan wants to talk to me about. And I don't know what's going on.

but for me about something, it's great survey. Actually this is really interesting. So IT turns out, David, that bitcoin owners might not be as hard core right libertarian as is really interesting. Some I I want to get your take on IT on the analysis here. Where do they sit politically, the bitcoin holders before .

we get into why they held the markets dumped like late last night into this morning a moment to talk about our friends and sponsors over at mocha who has rebuilt their trading engine from the ground up, now built for a serious on chain trading and trades, uh, completely build rebuild their optimization engine and is now the best place to get the best Price on any size trade where the small teaching or you are actually legitimate king multi million dollar trades.

Congrats to you if you are so is a user friendly APP just that can make sure that IT is scanning all of ecliptic to all of all the on chain liquid sources, make sure that you get the best Price on your trade. okay. So right yesterday, second day of the theory, an etf started, get some numbers in, but told the end of the day the whole market note A R markets but also the mostly actually mostly the text tox and just the trade markets. And what the hell is going on?

Yeah like this. This is the Q Q Q. David, the ndc. B oh, of just a typical day in cypher, I would say, but like very deep of red candles for for crypto. O so dave, there's some speculation.

If if you want to assign blame for this, some people are just, you want, you want to find someone to blame. Well, you could blame japan. This is head so big, japan is blowing up that a speculation, uh, taking down gold cyp to a, the nk, all of these induces and the k with them.

So that is the speculation here. And this is a Christie's, he says the a fool of everyone, myself included uh somebody, an analyst just updated me on how much risk is newton in japan is bleeding to crypto s that the current action, his current action is he's not buying, he's not selling. He's just writing. You think Chris is may be scared. That is something going on in japan.

everyone. So while markets will throw psychopath tract, you for some reason or another I don't pay attention to was going on in japan. And I guessing i'm speaking for the average cyp to investor or so if somebody in japan is always set and fearful, and that's reflected through the markets, markets are a global phenomenon.

This is the first two percent drawdown in Q, Q, Q since we've had in since early twenty twenty three. So it's been over a year since we've had this kind of drawdown in the traditional equity market as as somebody also just like these things happen, this is an an exceptional drawdown. This is a Normal, Normal sized large drive down, a size of size large drive down.

There is no ox more out there. But no, yeah, I mean, markets are gona do what they're going to do. So another answer for this is you can't don't blame japan. IT was just time was trying time for a pullback daily. Blame japan on the weekend, if you want to, you can is totally a loud .

are getting into more familiar territory despite somebody going risk off in japan. Bitcoin, at least according to these beautiful Green crack and charts up two percent on the week. Uh, so starting the week at sixty three thousand six hundred, currently at the Price of sixty four thousand nine hundred. So even though biton didn't take a little that dip in last two days, nonetheless still up two percent.

That surprises me. I think that yeah, I thought I was like, pretty bloody, I guess, two days for everyone. But I guess not in bitcoin.

If you look at on seven day, this this could have something to do with IT, which is bitcoin etf flows, of course. So this is an interesting that black rock that's just one of the many bitcoin etf. Blackrock bitcoin etf has surpassed the NASA tracking etf. Q Q, Q in year today flows not crazy.

That is insane. Yeah isn't Q, Q, Q just the granddaddy etf?

Yeah, IT really was for the ASAP, right? I mean, there's S, N, P that are little larger. So bitcoin is the ice yeeres.

Bitcoin trust is now number four. But the if you if you're going for the year to date in terms of top etf, there's A A few S M P. There's vanguard, there's a blackrock S M P and there's a total sock market, a indica, just everything that's text dox Q Q Q. And then number four, bitcoin is the biton trust solve Q Q Q.

We have two S, N, P, E, T, S. In one two. We have the total socks market number three, and bitcoin is number four.

And then QQ is number five. Yeah, wow, wow, that's great. Yeah, that's really pretty impressive.

H, in terms of volume, this is a take map hogan actually gave early in the week when he came in the podcasting ers. Uh, tech investors who are very excited about Q, Q, Q are looking for an opportunity to diversify into the broader tech market. You can only get that with the bitcoin in serum etf.

That's kind of the crypto o tech market. That's an adjacent tech market you can't capture in to see like Q Q, Q. So I guess if you subscribed to match, this is not all that surprising that this is going on, right?

In other words, in the bitcoin world, cricket has finished their distribution of the mount ox bit coin coins. And so now we actually get to see what's going on with a bit on Price as a result of the box's distributions. IT looks like nothing.

They are not selling. No additional trading volumes have been picked up on cracking or any of the other venues that have had the cox dirigo tion actually might just be cracking. So while there have been some bitcoin outflows as in like people have sent the big coin around, no one is sending IT to the market.

And so this is kind of what we were speculating on last week. And now it's come to ferient. And we're proven right that the the amount gosford is indeed just fod.

I guess the summary the big coin story right now, germany's done selling box doesn't seem like it's a big deal and spot bitcoin etf continue to go up. This this is your tweet. You're just posting the spot bitcoin etf low over the summer. I mean, really good june.

july for biton f july bitcoin etf inflows, inflows.

inflows, not inflows because all of this red and the the back part of the chart, that's all the Grace ale kind of bending out out. It's gone now. So it's just everything that flows, flows. Well, I guess I .

can go down to on this is a speculation on net. Like the etf, the crypto etf lows will flow in words for a very long amount of time. And by very long, I mean like decades. okay. Wait, wait.

wait a second. Now i'm looking at the author in Price on the week and I am skipped ahead because i'm going to get you to tell me this. But like we just looked at a bitcoin and IT was up two percent and this is a theory um etf week and we look to be down. I mean this is why I was feeling .

the pain in the earlier .

this is the bad news.

what the theory of the week down seven percent starting the week three thousand and four hundred dollars currently three thousand and one hundred and fifty dollars, three sixty dollars and so yeah either took a walk up, um uh, why did this happen? Uh well, okay so we we got the etf. Uh, flows on day one, surprisingly strong.

Flows on day two also decently strong as well. But we have are watching a faster outflowing of the Grace ale ef e trust then what we saw when bitcoin, the bitcoin tiffe started. And so things are really shaking up quicker quickly for the the E T.

S. This is how I said I we're going to go through all of this and more. But what what we are noticing is that the theory um etf volumes are surprisingly strong and so are the eat outflows out of gray scale.

It's a bit of a mixed bag. I mean, we do an entire segment on the three meta, but I mean, the T L D R is from from an issue perspective and from the inflow and volume perspective. The letter grade is a like IT was a really solid launch, a the second largest in history, net inflows and volume around twenty percent of the coin. But the market, at least right now, still seems disappointed by that. If we're down seven percent on the week.

total cup dom market cap two point for ford trillion, that's been flat for a while. Getting into some layer, two updates there to bite you by mental, the layer to ecosystem with the lst N L R T tokens on IT as well. So, so things were going to bring up here.

This is Michael nato tweet wooden, the analysts that right? And I definitely recited who put on some layer to focus tweet that I want to highlight. Layer tools now have six times the active users that layer one has. The other one I was coming in over half million of daily active addresses, followed by base at three hundred and fifty thousand, follow by zk in at just over three hundred thousand, follow by linna. Lina.

that's for, this is all for the quarter, right?

For cute. This is for the quarter. Q two, twenty, twenty four, follow by linna, follow by optimism, follow by immutable, able K, E, V, A.

First, I like specific gaming ecosystem. To get a bunch of users actually makes sense. There are bunch of users in the role of gaming, uh, and then there are some economics that will pull out as well.

And so as a result of for for for the fees being charged to layer tools, drop six hundred and eighty million dollars, things of blob space. And so I, of course, activity only the tools menu increased with the drop of fees. And this is this is what we wanted out of websites. You you take down the breaks out of layer tools and upset, you get more activity on the layer tools.

And then the last one, you can also see which of these later tools are are pulling in the strongest margins, so of their usage on their blocks space and and then subtracting the revenue, the fees that they have to pay the a theme layer want to settle basis coming in at almost thirty five million dollars on the quarter. So base pocketed thirty five million dollars, followed by a as number two, just five fifteen million dollars, followed by optimism just above ten million dollars, followed by linear and blast right around nine million dollars. A peace, a profitable business models.

is your day away from all this is just up ecosystem on .

the there is like one of the most healthy things that i've I can see in the industry, like active addresses or up on TV. L is up only eats dominated TV. L is also up. It's been like stagnating for a little bit, but it's still like marginally up on the quarter. Ah the later to ecosystem is like a shining spot of like adoption.

Yeah, I guess it's not hockey sticking at this. A heart is king. It's kind of just steady incremental up.

And I guess me me doing what it's supposed to I guess you ming out to where we are in the cycle is so the question there's a take I read in panta a capital that, that summarizes that they think we are entering into face too. And so we have been in face one we are entering face to. Maybe we've just started to enter face to.

So when I explained this, you you'll be like our, okay, I use different words, but this is what always happens. Basically, face one is the big point. Every every ball market I should has a face one in a face to at least that has historically.

If you look at the you know twenty sixteen bull market, you know the twenty, twenty, twenty big market, uh the current bull market that we're in, which maybe started in twenty twenty three or so, there's a face one that is dominated by bitcoin, ticks the bottom and then shoots up, all right, that's the entirety of face one. And then there's a mark difference where face too gets activated. And that's really kind of the non bitcoin market, the art coin market.

So here, here's how they summed up phase one. Is that really stage of a rally when bitcoin has tended to outperform the rest of the market face too? Is that the later stage when all coins, everything on bitcoin have tended to outperform the market. And so we believe we are entering face too. This is sort of like if you look at the chart.

here is your face three years. I just wanted to one and two.

We get two phases in this type of analysis, by the way.

Face three is when everything goes down.

We don't talk about a phase three, right, because that's the bare cycle. But the coin dominance in the first phases has historically increased a fifteen to twenty percentage points in the first portion of every cycle. And at this point, the cycle evidence that weren't be like face one IT has increased by seventeen percentage points.

So that's what they think. So basically what this means is bitcoin has had the majority of IT to run at least relatively to other crypto assets, and they're anticipating the second phase being the non bitcoin assets. If IT plays out the way that has played out in previous cycles.

What's you take on this? This is good. Hope you I hope my helpless is the case. I would love phase to yeah i'm a fan of to face to is when the .

exciting something happens. I mean, right now, bitcoins looking real strong though .

I will say so there's always the kind of the the cana talking about putting IT on the ballot, doing strong yeah IT hasn't .

strong that bitcoin is yes, like it's been a bitcoin lead cycle, but that's always what happens in face one .

really long cycle though. Face IT continues to be a bit condominium ycl.

I mean, on the charge though, it's actually not that long. It's kind of mets depends when you measure, you start charts.

Well, well, big coin is dominant. You know, you know, the rest of the market that just grows in fundamentals. And here is something that I think everyone is under appreciated, but everyone should appreciate, which is the decks to sex spot trading volume.

We like our dexia more than we like our sexes IT. Is that all time highs. So we are approaching fifteen percent, which we have never seen before.

You've usually hovered just around ten percent, may be a little bit less of dex to sex trading volume, where ninety percent is of trading volume is usually happening on central exchanges. We are approaching fifteen percent for the first time ever of decks volume to central, to change volume. Market share.

This is a big is huge. This is a big, big deal. I want fifty percent. I will not sleep until fifty percent. The whole, the whole goal of of going bank less is I have a dominant decks trading volume to sex trading volume market here. Yeah.

I got to say I agree with you. This is very bullish. It's very bullish.

H ongoing bangles. People taking cut their own assets that that decentralized exchanges are actually working. And like for people have been here like five, six years.

Do you remember back in twenty nineteen? This is like when unis wap was just barely starting and we had a protocols like zero x, which by the way, later can built built out much system. King, yes. And they were they were trying, right? The people said dexia would never work, that there wasn't like the value there, that we never get this on chain think. So to see us go from basically zero percent where all of the centralized exchanges were the dominant way people traded assets, to see this money verb, the trade verb, go increasingly on chain, and to get to fifteen percent, uh, is just fantastic. And IT shows that like this entire thing that we've been working on for so long as is actually starting to .

work are coming up. Next theory um E T S two days of trading flop or not, we will talk about all of these details and everyone's takes as well. Common Harris enters the race.

What does that mean for crip to pro cripes or anti cypher? Is you going to take bidens previous stance and run with, or you going to a change her tune? Um and then apparently ryan has a conspiracy theory. Was your conspiracy theory?

Uh, OK into that next section.

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I think we should start this section with the financial times headlines. Here's a headlined from the financial times. The S. C, C approves either etf as crypto moves closer to the mainstream.

Wow, wow. H headline.

right? Foolish headline. And that's what happened. Indeed, the serum etf products have launched.

This is eric belton's posting all of different issues of eth etf. I'm not going to read this now. There's none of them if there's .

one of them and they all start with eat and then .

one more letter yeah the question is we have a day one behind us. We have a day two behind us. We don't yet to have a day three at the time of recording bank less, less. I have a day three under their belt. But let's recap both day, one day to and I talk about our progress so far.

Day one recap, theory at etf now have ten point two billion dollars in assets. Now of course, most of that is coming from gray scale. That's how we started with such a high number. Volumes on day one were over one point one billion dollars from the group.

Now when we asked matt hogan what would have been like an par for the course meet expectation, either etf trading volumes number, he said something wrong, like four hundred million to five hundred million, that would have been part for the course. We got one point one billion. And on the first day, total net flows were positive, one hundred and seven million.

So we had one hundred and seven million dollars of net buying pressure on either from the serum etf on the very first day um and also four hundred and eighty four million dollars came out of gray scale. So four hundred and eighty four million doors left the gray scale of your mts and almost six hundred million dollars came in to all the other etps. And so that was just the number one ah we the four hundred and eighty four million doat of gray scale IT was a lot so the A A tweet from eric on says, dam, that's like five percent of the fund so Grace ale lost five percent of the A U M on day day one.

Some of that went into the Grace family trust, but a lot went to the other etf or were also sold. Uh, he can says like not sure if the other etps can really offset this level of outflows from the Grace etps. But on the flip side, maybe IT was good to get this bandage ripped off like this, just drain that thing.

So then everything can turn into inflows. IT negatively suppress the Price for either. This is what happened with the bichon Y E tf. But like this just get this done with .

and I was that was day one so the summary of day one was .

the thereby .

dito pretty darn gan said was SHE he gives us something closer to an a plus um which is very impressive and basically the volumes were about twenty three percent of what bitcoin did on a day one, which is good. The net inflows were around like eighteen percent, something like this uh which is also pretty good and kind of as expected and um like try turning towards over perform, I would say. So let's get to day two. What happened on day two?

Day two also came in a surprise, surprise, high trading volumes, and also kind of the same, same with the grey scale outflow, a lot of gray scale outflows as well. And so there were one point one billion dollars of trading volumes on day one, eight hundred and fifty two million dollars of trading volumes on day two, about seventy five percent of the total trAiling trading volumes of the notional value of bit E, T. S.

Of that same day. And so the trend continued ultimately day over, day. Over these two days, there was a total outflow.

Uh, so we have actually lost uh total flows. Uh, we have lost total A U M. In the authority due to the large outflows out of the gray scale eat e tra.

So eight hundred and eleven million dollars have left gray scale. And then between all, if you add up all of them, the total, the total outflows are just twenty seven million dollars. And so and we are we are lagging twenty seven million dollars over the two days, twenty seven million dollars call in the wash.

We're kind of flat. Um but yeah just like the Grace sales like just out was like leaking either and then everything else is taking all of the back up. Accept twenty IT seems like .

the gray scale drain like because obviously bitcoin also had a great scale drain that was happening. Seems like that might .

be happening faster. And I think I think we're seeing the same story of the fs sped up with sense.

We have to get some more days behind us to because right now, after day two, we don't know what day three looks like as we're not here. But like a day two, we're actually net negative. As you said.

I just want to emphasize that point. We're net negative. About twenty seven million bitcoin never went into a net negative uh territory when I was a deflection, the the gray scale etf. So maybe just happening faster on the theory, but we'll have to get some more days in us to to actually like see what the what the net inflow versus outflow cases.

Meanwhile, I was pretty cold to see all of the trade marketing engine a spend up to all the websites for all these T, F. Issues are up. Here's just a collage of them that I put together.

You got bit wise. Vanek, Franklin, milton, black rock. Everyone, everyone just now has a new website for people who go to these websites, to these financial investments.

I guess you could stubble upon the either t fs on the Grace co website now course, or the black rock website. Also another nature rc tweet who shared the press release from black rock, the world's largest asset manager. A theory um appeal lies in its desensitized nature and its potential to drive digital transformation in finance and other industries.

This was a press release from black rock about the eyes shares the theory an trusts set to launch once a black doing press releases for a theory um pretty cool, pretty cool. Uh and the gray scale they have their uh many trust that is coming in and a wapping three dollars a share so you can buy the great scale mini trust ah at three dollars a share. This is the one with the point one five percent fee as opposed to their their Normal trust of any lost one, lost one.

But there are the other one. The one with all the A U M has two point five percent fees, which is why you're seeing just the flood of capital outbound out of the year. The gray scale E E trust, bit wise there. E W H also has some extra cool accuseth ah they donate ten percent of their fees of their point, two percent fees to the protocol killed and the proposal builder a foundation as well. So ten percent of money their profits go into just funding public goods is really just a huge tip of the hat to them.

And also, I think this like move really worked for them because bit wise coming in second after a black rock not far behind black rock, something like two hundred and seven million dollars of inflows, followed by bit wise at just over two hundred million dollars of inflows, followed by fidelity, like seventy or eighty millions nipped at the heel of black rock. Black is team of, like, sixty people going toe to toe with the world's largest asset manager on the either etf. You gotta give them a hands, like, well done, bit wise, you guys prepare yourselves .

on the back. They're a great job. Mah hog says they they talk to do twenty thousand different like webers and meetings know how that's yeah absolutely.

On the flip side of things, e etf, so won't be available in very guard and that's why we don't care about them. Good bye, van guard. I mean.

this was not surprising. Van guard also is not doing the big in etf. So anti .

crypt of financial platform for all of you people who might be interested. They think I wish are none of you.

It's funny to me because they think it's too soon, right? Um I guess like too much volatility or something is the complaint. But like there are assets in the Q Q Q like facebook that I mean, they've gone down eighty three percent. They had A A larger depth than bitcoin during the bear market, right?

I know where liz warn keeps her money .

and come around eventually. You know this would take when we had a belton's from blueberry on that, that he said, which is like, hey, when when we're talking about the three arrays, we are going through different narratives. And you know his stake was like, I don't really think the token ization narrative for the theory is going to be the one that sticks because he's barish toga ization.

I think the reason he gave for that is because the etf already do a pretty good job toga ized things and he's actually not wrong. You know how we've compared etf is like an E R C twenty rapper. It's sort of is it's trafic version of an c twenty, basically. And they're doing that like a real world asset play. Only four, like the real world asset, is either in its own chain and kind of y're wrapping IT in etf.

But here's we also used to put the internet through the phone .

line too yeah well so here's nicosia with a uh opposite take and also comes from trade five from the etf world. And his take, says toga ization. The next step, this is what says, what my trade five friends are missing, is this mutual funds was the past.

Etf is the present. Cyp to is the future. crypto. E, T, S are the bridge between the present. The future crypto will prove itself as a Better investment delivery vehicle, among other things. My opinion crypt u is inevitable as truly that simple. It's just basically toga ization is kind of like the next step in this trajectory of um making assets more more liquid and tradable. Tobi zo kind of like just reimagining what E T S would look like if they were digit native and on the internet.

if if they had like a business logic inside of the token is a way Better for gin factor anyways. While now the bitcoin in the e ether etf are just live and deeping, we're going to steep for a few months. We're going to have James safer and archibalds at permissionless.

And so we're going to give you guys the three months progress on the either E T S, the six months, seven months progress of the big on E T. S. Price if you guys go want to go to permissions.

And here from these men are Prices are going up. They are doubling on monday. And so get your ticket now before they go up, especially if you're a bangala citizen and you have a very large discount on your perks page. So there's a link in this on us. So you don't get your expensive ticket on monday, get your cheaper ticket this weekend today whenever you're listening to this.

So everyone has seen, of course, that president joe ban has dropped at a twenty twenty four presidential race IT looks like commoner Harris is going to be the presumption of nominee. Uh and the question is what's her poster going to be encrypt du? You could just default say, well, it's just bides poster, right? She's part of the administration. She's in the White house.

A SHE was like present for everything that was going on with gary gang's ler in this happen and twenty one video, you just defauts that to that or you could take a different view and more optimistic view and recognize that this is commonly Harris opportunity to pv IT on issues where biden was relatively unpopular cyp to being one of those issues. I think jacked or vince, I puts this take well, he said, with president biden stepping inside, the democratic party has a huge opportunity to win back a big share of the gypt to vote. This should be top priority for the new nominee and election.

There will be one on the margins in states where cyp T, O is a live issue, and they goes through his rational for why. But the T, L, D, R is just crypt is important. Biden has been on the wrong side, is not gaining any votes by being anti script, certainly not gaining any uh, political elite donations from the donor class. And so this is that haris opportunity to set a new agenda and to distance herself from the biden platform.

Now we're trying to really get like a details. I feel like what how relevant is cypher in the brain of commoner Harris? Like is he even thinking about this? Does he even care about this? A A tweet came out of, walter bloomberg said mark cuban says commonly, harses can reach out to him with multiple questions about crypto sadly, that's all that we know. Uh but if indeed true, the fact that common Harris is getting the uh nominee for the democratic distance and then within like two days is like thinking about crypto at all I think is like a pretty strong indicator that like they're trying to think about how to approach this thing. And so the fact that it's even relevant in her brain space at all, i'm optimistic about yeah.

cuban says I take IT as a good sign. Hard not to take that as a good sign, he says the feedback i'm getting, but certainly not confirmed by the V P, is that sh'll be far more open to business A I cyp in government as a service. Uh, so that's to take there is also some rumor earlier this week that commonly hers would actually be speaking at the bitcoin conference.

The very speaking at.

and this was the talks with bitcoin conference organizers was kind of the room. This is the bitcoin conference, by the way, that truck is speaking at just this weekend.

A R F S, R F K.

Talk about that a bit more detail. But IT turns out, David, that that rumor does not have substance. This is a David Bailey.

He's the conference organizer. Come herri, he says, will not be speaking at the bitcoin conference. No surprise. What can he say to us when she's actively in prisoning developers, forcing our industry y's overseas, attacking proof of work IT would have been a disaster for her all eyes on trump now so what?

David Bailey was also the guy that tweet out the tweet that he talked to the common hair rs campaign and they said that they will consider speaking at the bitcoin conference. That's true. And and then i'm guessing they got back in like where does not ready for this for interested? They just said, no, we're not going to be there that he sends and then he sends this week.

So I asked you, but do you have any idea why this room was circuit and he did not reply, but he Adams says it's because David Bailey actually tweed this to drum up a publicity for his own conference. So was stocking fires on the rumor. He says that start .

the years in the campaigns mouth, basically.

Fact is he had never spoken publicly about or voted on a cypher. O, relevant bill, it's true. Commonly you got to stand with cyp. Du is busy neutrals like T, V, D, like we don't know.

no information yeah where .

as biden gets like A D or d minus or an f or something with respective and so hidden says we shouldn't be so quick to fill in the blank with our own triers. She's likely trying to make friends, not enemies. Right now there's a big opportunity. So hey, don, saying there's actually an opportunity for cyp du to be non partisan or maybe even optimistically bipartisan. Start reaching out to coma Harris and you don't win IT by like tweet that all eyes on trump, uh you know, commonly herr's .

attacking not a neutral comment is nice. He is a very large trump supporter. He is the adviser to the trump campaign about bitcoin. yeah. So IT was interesting to you.

David. I talk to mike nove gracy yesterday and he was convinced he's actually betting on this. So episode drops on monday, by the way.

head on the market now is .

that he's betting with one of the linker losses, the Tyler Cameron. So, so.

okay, money at stake. No.

he wasn't money. I keep disappointing by english. I was like beer. You have to have like cloud, i'll be wrong in the internet and like I have to drink three beers, fifteen minutes or something so I get drug IT .

doesn't seem like much of a punishment anyway do do you .

that today anyway anyway, IT his point is he's publicly putting his stake on the line and and saying that people were quick to point out that he's also has luna at but that aside um he was point he was saying based that he anticipates commoner s will flip procyta that we will end up having to procreate to anomalies maybe not as procyta is trump because that would be hard at this point but that would be bullish.

And honestly, so long as we get off of president d grade is a step of retraction yeah I mean.

here's the most english possible world. Why this is exciting as a prospect is if you have both presidential candidate fighting for us in this escalating game of, like, i'm more eco pdl than you, no, I am more ecri pto and they keep doing this, like, in this game of one upmanship.

So trump, he is going to win that I don't would never want to play a game of one upmanship with .

trump s be there. But if you might kind of moderate the democrat position on cypher to at least with respect to the White house, so that would be lish. Lastly, I will say there are some that are saying, like even if commoner talk is like even if commonly haris pivots talk is cheap and like we demanded actual action so you're got to like fire gary gansler, like blood actually fice scary .

gazers gotto go yeah and .

so you're not serious until you do that. It's kind of talk.

It's like the lowest hanging through like you are not even neutral to crippled out until you fire gary cancer or exactly OK. So ring you a conspiracy about, uh, this twenty twenty four bitcoin conference is about to .

happen and something today sorry.

So it's not quite IT like I wouldn't say it's about spirit.

I'm a huge so it's it's a prediction. It's a tail event prediction. okay. And so the last time I made let .

me let me remind that the last .

time I made one of these, I was about the author edf approval when people didn't think that was a possible here's something that could happen. It's A A your tail prediction. So it's not super high probability.

But like, oh my god, if IT happened, do you want to be out of the market if something like this happened? What if so presentin nominee trump, he's going to speaking the bitcoin conference on saturday, saturday like a too, I think est something like this. So imagine if he was up here and he said this, if i'm president, I will buy, or ably say, once i'm present, I will buy bitcoin.

There's actually David a chance and I call IT a fair chance, I call IT maybe um over fifty percent chance that trump makes a campaign promise. We had the bitcoin conference in front of all of these kind of like adoring bitcoin fans to buy bitcoin to actually back the dollar. Kay, that would be like the perfect champion style announcement.

Not only amy, the program to president OK, you can didn't you touch me because i'm the present. There's actually going to buy bitcoin and put in on the fed baLance sheet, all right? And if you blend that with trumps probability of of winning, plus like he says this, and then you have to like baLance that with, like what's the probability that he follows through on his promise.

But you push that all together and you get like a fairly likely outcome, not super likely, but above zero, maybe in the teens to twenty percent outcome possibility that by the end of next year the U. S. Will have bitcoin, have purchased bitcoin in on the fed. baLanced.

I don't want to be ran tran's conspiracy. There is hater here quite like, can he? He can't just unattackable this. He has right. He can't tell the fed what to put .

on the baLance sheet right now. Here's a legislation .

that here there's so .

much they with orders and like you can just do an executive order and then has to get chAllenge in the in the courts. But this is why me, senator lamas, so SHE has been crypto friendly. She's actually planning some legislation for a strategic bitcoin reserve, and she's going to talk about that. The conference. okay. So this adds even more.

This is also allegedly, we don't actually know this, but we are like kind of gearing .

up for IT yeah and here's an analyst on C, N, B, C was asked this question so like maybe he's going to be persuasively on .

this point here. So yes, possible about big coin here the conference.

Do you think that these favorable comments could go so far as to indicate that he will be open up to IT being a reserve currency for the us?

yes. So there are some rumbling lings of that on x this week. IT could be something that's very difficult to get done, but IT is possible. The justice department holds about two hundred thousand units of bitcoin, so the united states is the largest holder of bitch coin.

And so they could easily just move that over to the department of treasury and start right there and half thirteen billion worth of bitcoin on the baLance sheet. So IT is a possible move. IT just can be taught to get done.

But what happens? This is the justice department and holding these units of bitcoin, they've been a random seller in the space. And so if they move from being a random seller at times, which could push the Price of bit going down over to being a long term hudler, well, that could be really good for this.

He doesn't to have to buy the day, but he's just to take all the and put IT on a different likes. The ledger within the U. S. Government.

if we are to ever confiscate bitcoin, we just give IT to the fed. We just give IT to the treasury. I like that. That's Better. Also, the fact I just want to highlight that the fact that city is is actually like pending real legislation is a very credible path to putting a bit point on the baLance.

Y okay. So let's say if that happens, David, I mean, you've got you ve got acknowledged that would be a mega bullish territory if trump goes. He says that on saturday.

yes, I was mega bullish. Um I still think i'm categorizing in the world of cyp twitter hope you crypto twitter hoi .

an over to the como Harris rumor yeah like the crypt or like twitter .

in general like was like biden was like not couldn't be found for two days because he had cold and then like immediately went to the inclusion that he was dead and they were like like weekend that burning him around and then he's like totally fine like twitter is just like a weird place right now.

Too many conspiracy theories for IT for David brain so just like this one is just know.

well, this is a more .

rational take that I kind of like if if you are hearing this entire section where we talk about common Harris, we're talking about trump and this pro cyp to read c and you're just gona shake in your heads and and being like, but guys, are the politicians going to actually deliver on cyp to like what is their incentive? What is their motivation? Like think about why they're doing this.

Ban Francisco has a great a take. I'm embarrassed that IT took me this long to realize that trumps pivot on cyphered isn't about winning single issue cyp tu voters, an assertion I ve always found hard to believe because there just aren't that many of us in swing states. Instead, IT was about winning over the donor tech class who saw bindon's administrate administration aggressive is anti crypto as a tent pole in a broader anti tech and anti innovation turn from the left.

So trump is an embracing crypto, but rather he's just trying to signal to wealthy silicon valley types that he will protect writ large. And IT seems to have largely worked. And then he goes out to say, and maybe the democrats will IT into this and if they don't, uh, you know, trump and the republicans will kind like you punish them so i'd got to say this rings somewhat true for me after listening to the you listen this right mark and dress and ben horwitz, their podcast, the very first thing of why they support trump again, silicon valley of silent valley.

They are the preeminent venture capitalists in in the world. And the number one was crypto. Basically.

this administration is treat top.

This administration, the by administration, has been needlessly hostile and crypto is one of the import IT. It's kind of a front runner of how they are going to respond to other .

techniques like A I R exactly.

And so I think that's what trump s is actually like going for. He's obviously trying to get uh you know these donations maybe the cyp t voters don't don't bring in in, but he is he is tilting silicon valley in his favor by this. And as we pointed out numerous times, democrat basically giving him free real al estate.

So we'll see if commonly herr's continues in that. But that's probably the pragmatic reason as to why as to whether you can trust them. I don't know.

I mean, they do have an effect though, right? Biden can just vito A A sab one twenty one repeal there there there are all things that you can do to support cyp to at least stand out of the way, uh, from the position of of of president. So uh, I guess we have to see that. I mean, why when when they follow through on at least some of these commitments though.

is my question this way with bands take, I think it's less of either or and IT is more of a yes. And like it's IT is a cypher vote and it's the donor class and it's like one package, like it's it's both of .

these things yeah and it's not that hard to just be procreate to its free words.

So you're talking about the bitcoin twenty twenty four conference to start today. Shut out to nicaro who is stepping into the ring tonight. So I have already happened by the time got a new David is have in me.

It's of in me. Uh, he's fighting a different individual code coon who doesn't have a broken rib. And so in the market actually is an polymer not just for politics, has been clocked in at sixty nine percent winning odds. And so actually they would just jump ed up to seventy five percent. I have been watching, so like nick and I follow with each other on an instagram. M, and as soon as I broke my rib and I had to, like, call off the fight, because I was going to fight him, like, six, seventy days later, yeah, he started posting his training because, like, I would have otherwise seen IT. And like, he has not stopped training since our fight.

but he's poising this. But koti can see IT and .

I don't think he is with code on OK yeah i'm guessing and so he's been like just like going through these fight camps for what is this now like almost four months like he is extremely trained individual so IT makes IT makes total sense that he's clock in at seventy five percent odds verse cody coon I will say the Polly market volume for the the nearby fight is five thousand dollars, so you're not too much volume. And people really wanted to see my fight with the Carter because it's a high day, seven thousand dollars.

People still want to see this fight, by the way. So who are you back?

So OK for sure. But okay. So in a police market you .

would bet on neck o so you you've got .

your unswept let. yeah. okay. The brand new. We were talking about this last week, the brand new unswathed. Let the nice thing that we like to about this wallet bank less is because when any other browser extension wallet would pop up, we can't share IT on the share screen. But because unis IT has a little side car. IT has a little side car so it's on this Green so you can actually watch right and take some of his usc c and and make a little bit on the Carter .

yeah like i'm not i'm not ready to bet on nick ah I can do my research here yeah this later. But I think the question people want to know is how are you going to sign up for a another opportunity to fight me? Carter, the .

opportunity presents itself. If the opportunity presents itself, I going to oh IT to nick and and everyone else end of one hundred and sixty seven thousand dollars of people that bet on on me in the first.

not just nick Carter, there's somebody, there's another exciting Carter at the pick in conflicts.

The hawk to a is going to a go and watch nick Carter fight aci congress. Nick, you know like pressure is on. Yeah games wash .

and the stakes have never been high.

IT have never been high. We know we got some we're got some more polite market content, Polly. Market popularity contest continues. We're going to talk about all the things that mainstream has been talking about about high market um but also coin base and her entering the cogan ized t bills game coin base trying to put some some real world assets on chain and then also this is where ryan talks about how bitcoin holders aren't as hard core right libertine as you may think all of this content animal.

But first I wanted to talk about these fantastic sponsors that makes us show possible, especially a mental, the full stack ecosystem, the layer or two, the R T, talk in the yield bearing. Eve, if you haven't tried out mental, there's a ink, and you can start. New projects are coming online, the mental layer, to every single week.

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So go and download the unit hop extension today by clicking the link in the shows. Just count biology, tweet out how poly market a Price. In the chance of biden dropping out appropriately, far before, there was even a debate where the rest of the world was like, realizing bindon's age and then he's also like, meanwhile, legacy media claimed bindon's centrality was a conspiracy theory, while polling market was pricing in the odds of joe bite and dropping.

I think this is really cool and really cool. I have yet some of mi and family have been actually like text, like what's in the us. Who is in election, so of send them the polymer prediction because I genuinely think it's like the best prediction on the plant right right now.

The chances anticipating the chances of trump winning at sixty three percent, and I think that's most accurate considering what we know right now. Of course, this can change and will change on a dime if common. Haris gets like the all sorts of steam and her campaign really picks up.

It'll be reflected in the Price of polymer, which is brilliant. And people ask like what's what's different versus this this script to Polly, market prediction market versus others, liquidity. There is so much volume on these markets, it's actually insane crypt to people love trading, markets don't and they love gambling on these like outcomes. And so we brought that .

liquidity here as well. When color hair was named by biden as lag nominated by biden, I think don trump had some sort of like seventy percent like likelihood. So people's like, oh, like, well, if biting can do IT like the democratic party in shambles.

And so I started off seventy five percent, but then apparently like common haris drove in like hundreds of million of dollars of donations and is giving out like like, like rally crying speeches to the left. And the left is like rally behind. So you're seeing that immediately drop down from seventy down to sixty two percent. You're just seeing real time news like do you want to have the best digestion of information and data possible without having to consume hours? The news just go to police also put out a number .

yeah and also so here's our love about this. It's like stake on the bed. So something disagrees with that there. Like there's no way a convicted fell and Donald trump's going to win like another term markers c this there's no way commonly Harris like ninety nine percent certainty that she's going to win.

Okay, that money for you money .

because everyone has an opinion on things, but unless they have some sort of stake backing that opinion, what's the worth? And so yeah, I love, I love this kind of like truth source for for media and h for outcomes like this.

I really liked this, uh, post this, uh, short, short post, longer than a tweet, shorter than a blog post from yoga when I read IT out. Polly, markets aren't ical. Success is the most important story in ript right now.

But it's so obvious that we are ignoring IT when we should be shout, screaming IT from the rooftops. Prediction markets are the pierce technological manifestation of liberal democracy. They take free markets and free speech as inputs, an output truth in an age where centralized control of information as a systemic risk.

Prediction markets also offer a way of cutting through misleading narratives and viewing the unvarying h truth. Prediction markets are freedom preserving technology that move societies forward. IT is a monumental for crypto to that polymer is being consistently cited by mainstream media for election probabilities.

The seamlessness of which this has happened speaks to its product market fit. No one talks about the fact that polymer is built on cyp to because the product is so good, of course, underneath the hood and makes total sense away, a prediction market should be built on a decent Price. Financial network the U.

S. Presidential election is volatile. Le and many actors are intensified to skate reality. For most of us, there is no single trusted source of truth, but for those who have follow polar market knew that the replacement of the democratic candidate was always a possibility.

Quietly, polymer has served as a bulwark against manufactured contentus and sanctioned misinformation like other products and cypher u prediction markets face an appeal battle with the respect of regulatory clarity in the other states with their utility as applications of cripp to is second only to money in finance if you are a supporter of cyp du. The next time you find yourself in a discussion about politics, refer to your friends to poly market. I thought that was such a great, punchy post.

And IT really just speaks to, just like the way a crypt to APP gains adoption. We have more freedom in the universe as a result of that. I thought this great.

You wants to hear A D by ony, then hear David. It's .

blocked .

in the U. S.

H.

So you have to use A V, P N.

You have to use A V, P, N. A freedom technology.

right? I mean, the C, F, T, C has to reverse course on this is absolutely insane that we don't have access to, uh, these types of markets and they're trying to protect you, protect IT and you like viewers gambling that sort of thing. Anyway, more work to do. I mean, that would be an important act of an executive order to kind of like reverse the blocking of of prediction markets like polling market.

That's right. Get into the world of uh, tok animation. Coin base asset management, I guess. But you didn't know that coin base had an asset matter is creating a token ized money market fund.

Uh, and so this is a coin base getting into the world of tokens zing, a yellow bearing assets on chain. This is following in the face of black rocks build. So they're trying to eat their piece of the pie.

Also in sonet land, g to has announced a retaking platform. So g to is now also like an MV boost to collect MV and puts IT into their g to soul, which is their stake to sole derivative. And now they also have a risking platform.

So continuing to be able like very full stack integration, build everything they are build everything yeah I mean, to make sense to like put IT all in one stack, they are kind of like are this was going to be a monopoly, but like whatever. Uh and so it's a hybrid taking risking in L R T module. So risking coming into the role of so want to via to are .

David you ready for those interesting survey results?

cool.

alright. So this is as some survey proved that the coin owners are actually not as hard core right libertarian as you might think there actually shot. I am actually a little surprised by this is the nomo to instead who put out the survey.

So definitely like big coiners ers, uh, and they found a few things. This is, first, all over a bus survey. This was a survey over a thirty five hundred adults in the U.

S. And they were looking at their big owner ship. And what are the demographics or or characteristics?

So a few findings to highlight. Number one, this one won't surprise you. There was no strong correlation across many dimensions of bitcoin holders for race, ethnicity, religion, relationship status. Income is not secured towards like wealthy or or not wealthy or financial literacy um wow.

So it's equally distributed amongst all of those things.

Yes, the only demographic where it's not equally distributed IT is good, Young and male in the us. Truly doesn't .

just tell.

So that's the demographics. But uh, otherwise, apart from being Young in male, IT was just like pretty a distributed, which was me. And this was actually maybe the biggest shock.

Many people thought that big coin others ship would skew towards the political right, toward libertarian, apparently cording. The survey results that was absolutely wrong. By far, the largest holder of bitcoin in terms of political orientation was basically the moderate.

Those that are, are neutral, those that are somewhat liberal, somewhat conservative, kind of that fat middle, very conservative or very liberal, or actually the minority. Interesting, very liberal. Are you seeing these numbers?

Yeah, very liberal is like forty percent higher than very conservative.

Yes, yes. Of the total bitcoin owners uh, in the survey, which is representative sample size and they cut across all demographic S I I mean, like I looked at the data, IT seems like a good survey. Fourteen percent of bitcoin owners are very liberal.

which is shocking to me and ten person is the I guess this is a very conservative ones that are super lab.

And then lastly, they ask how people perceive bitcoin. And again, this is comparing all all of these results are comparing owners versus non others, which is a sort of interesting, but this is not a surprise. But if you are an owner of bitcoin, you definitely believe that bitcoin is good and that good.

So this is a chart of trust in bitcoin or moral perception of bitcoin. Let's look at moral perception of bitcoin. I find that interesting more bit.

So owners like, is bitcoin good or bad? Like that bad? If you own bitcoin, definitely you tend towards the strong.

agree. The chart displaying cognitive decision right .

over the lack is kind of interesting like and so forty six percent of people that don't own bitcoin in are like more neutral and their moral perception of bitcoin. But on the we think bitcoin evil side of things, if they are non owners of bitcoin, fourteen percent think bitcoin is evil. If they own bitcoin, it's like one percent matching you're, by the way, that one percent of bitcoin is your own bitcoin, you still think it's evil.

But there there's like one percent of that the bitcoin holder population that actually believes that, which is kind of interesting, right? But like not a surprise that people who own bitcoin also think it's good yet is one of those correlation causation things because maybe the trick to getting more people to believe that bitcoin eclipse is good is to just have them buy a crypto to maybe that's the simple political formula. And I think probably a chicken .

in the problem. As soon as you are convinced that is good, you will buy IT. And that will happen in the same omen or vice, a versa, like you decided by bitcoin. And all a sudden, like you can't hold the cognitive dissident of like owning bitcoin. And also thinking is it's .

reflective it's probably both things. But IT seems to be there is correlation, probably some causation when people own crypto, they tend to think it's good. So that's why the the work that we're doing here and evan animalized ferryman T A matter David is manifested our politics.

Bitcoin is good. Biton is good. This is true.

Lastly on bitcoin news on the week proton wallet, so give you to the email .

ah proton mail, so anonyma .

a encrypted fantastic privacy to all. Um I have some proton mail accounts and yeah just never failed me with no those are my secret count sets just like no knows about or maybe I have and you just don't know why I am right? It's not that's the idea is not tied to my identity .

so I don't check email, so that's how I get my privacy.

I mean, what's interesting that is per ton walls is one of those tools like signal, where they are crypto a Jason, but they all in unit. They haven't really ruled out a cypher to product until now.

So the proton wallet, David, this is a proton email rolling out a bitcoin wallet, which is non kap dio open source as you'd expect, uh, completely enter and encysted and integrated within the proton mail APP so you could specially send bitcoin the way you would send email. I think not revolutionary. Of course, there's lots of different crypto wallets out there, but it's very cool to see a privacy centric organizations start to embrace script. I've long thought that there's an alliance that we just haven't made people like signal, people like pert on male. And this is a good signal with their development of this APP and look forward to trying and .

this is where the vitality would call the defensive acceleration, acceleration ism, all of proteins products, I call defensive .

products yeah told only Green right me of the week .

you have to cleaning this one. Actually this is that you mean, so apparently .

you signed me up to play pick ball in permissionless. Wise out. So I is out earlier and now I come back and we are going pick OK.

So like, I not talk you about this.

but like, how's your pick ball game, man? Because, like minds not great. I'm not at all right now.

pretty really. Did you know did you know that pick ball, the phenomenon, that is, pick ball was created on bambridge island, washington, of which my family has a vacation home.

No way.

And so my mom, I will come back. Come my mom right now. Welcome my mom right now. Hey, mom has your day going and she's going na be like, great. I just played like three hours of pick ball.

Oh my god, my parents play pickle too. They are. My dad was just here and he offered to just, hey, you need training for this, you come down, afford a and help train you and I do because I don't. How much did you play?

I have have only played very few times. But IT comes very naturally to me OK.

I'm not Stellar, but like a proba ket nis.

Yeah, yeah, okay, well, so we're going to need to process. Ah, so get to permission.

answer. Ly, yeah, all right. Well, I I gotta do some practice here because i'm not.

I get work on a team. Verses, is that mike and Jason from blocker? K I I don't .

know how this that works. IT seems appropriate that we would go mike and Jason barely. Mike has a bad back, though. So like you'll go up against mike and i'll go up against ano.

right? I'll be excited to see what the polar markets look like for historic pick ball game at permissionless.

Another reason to get your tickets before Prices go up. There's a link in the shown out. And if you are being the citizen again, you get like thirty percent off.

So go to your perks page, get your tickets for the Price to go up. And also the point of this mean is that you like you can also sign up to play pick ball. This is like an open tournament.

Thanks for mentioning that, right? This is lamers. Of course, you know crypto as risky, you could lose what you put in, but we are had at west.

This is the frontier. Not for everyone bother gladio with this on the business journey. Thanks a lot.