E104: Will Shadow President Elon Save Us? | Noah Smith
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Alright, yeah. So are you happy with the .

election result? So we're speaking, you know, the morning after the election and i'll say i'm happy. But mix, I think one thing i'm happy about is that IT was a blow out.

And I think the worst case scenario would have been a contested election on either side that you know would have drawn this, you know, out for months. I think I would preferred a commoner blowout to a trump narrow Victory that would would have sort of divided the the nation terms of who won. I think other things to be excited about are, am excited for the democrats regroup and have a stronger candidate.

And just going to start first principles on, hey, what do we stand for right now? What's popular, you know, what can win and how do we how do we fight back? Because he seemed like the current approach wasn't wasn't working.

I think i'm definitely nervous about all the things that we've been talking about and terms of will elon really have influence? Well, you know, is strong. Got to turn on everything that he, everybody that he, you know, they helped to, helped to win that know the tarra son.

I mean.

a lot of things that we've been talking about, you've been writing about their real concerns. So you know, some things to, you know, I could have been much worse, some things to be happy about, but is iran really helping run the country right now? If so, that's exciting.

Save less. Shadow president elan, that's that's basically the idea and how it's like, yeah, elan would hopefully allow high skilled immigration to continue camped down on tariff s and do more fiscal austerity as opposed to rampant deficit blow out. That's the the hope, right?

That's the hope. I think I think we chose the high variance option. And with high variance and there's real there's real risk we're not returning to Normal sea as as as we mentioned, the the approach could have been. So now, you know things are things are up in the air, and we will see what happens right now.

The day before the election, you wrote comment will preserve our democratic institutions while she's trying to jail her political opponent, proposed state run censorship and debt or political enemies. Is that true? Was that was that really true?

That was me mostly just venting at I felt there was A N A cemetery and how both sides were were covered, not come out herself. But I did feel that both parties were playing sort of below the below the belt. But if you're feel free to, you know, tell me I was wrong or tell me I was, you know, out of line or but well.

no, I mean, I don't know about that because, you know, I was I was struck by how biden's justice department refrain from going after trump himself very aggressively. He was invited in state courts, but the justice department, mary garlin didn't didn't really go after. So that was one, that was one thing about this narrative of going after your political opponents.

I think that conservatives and republicans tend to see everything from, you know, will stand call to like university humanity professor saying crazy lefty shit, to palestine protesters, to state attorney generals, to like, you know, whoever their mother in law as like one unified progressive enemy block, and that whatever any of those people do was done by the whole left. You know whether I think that the by administration did not go after trump was there was state ages who went after him. And there's a limited degree to which the administration controls the state guys.

You know, like they're going to do what you're going to do and state run censorship. I'm not actually sure. I do think that I saw tim walls proposed that.

So i'll i'll give you you that one I am pretty worried about like you know hate speech laws basically like being a back door for for censorship and but then but the the bank political enemies, I don't actually know about that. I have no information about whether that happened. I know that during the twenty ten there are some effort to like kick you know some people out of like various like catron and stuff like that. But I I don't actually know about D, K, D, banking, political enemies. So if you know about that, and I don't that you have something to teach me.

I will contest to just venting on on acts after after a debate I was having with the with with a friend I think, you know, I was worried for what would happen to elon in in a calm when maybe nothing would have happened. And you know, maybe like my cuban, you know, just did elan might, well, elon wouldn't have been as magna is as q IT and saying, you know, congratulations, you know, very square, which which proposed cuban, by the way, for doing that. But know and maybe gom, we've just said, no elan.

Now it's time to join us and let's make this country great or you know, maybe there would have been some if I like bitten wasn't particularly friendly to to elon, both in terms of some of things, he said but but also IT seems like elon hah. You know his companies weren't recognized and weren't sort of didn't seem like the most collaborative relationship, which is maybe why he was, you know, so gone home on trump and so I I yeah I think you know you rote the other week know ellam is one of the most important people in in in our counter right now, if not the most. And so we need elon and administration that is excited to work with elon and and maybe come would have been .

to basically the president elon. That's the name of this episode to save us shadow president elon.

I think it's it's kind of funny because, you know, will stand for this this sort of online shouting kind of guy who who try to win a democratic primary and lost kind of twitter activist type and I like and I have affection for him, but I you know i've don't think he's always like this markest guy, but he's you and banging on and on elon's really running the show. It's elon. It's shadow president elon.

And what i've tried to convey to him is that that almost no one who hears this will think that's a bad thing. Like this is this is you just take upon like why tech people or so you know a lot of tech people went so hard for trump, like because they they believe in shadow president in on theory at least shadow president vance and techy friends of vance theory right, which is not one hundred percent shadow president elon though he's the most important one. But like, yeah basically I think that the idea that that righting tech people are going to be able to secretly and control of the administration is the great hope of my elite trumPeters.

I think and that's that's interesting because I think it's you're starting to this is the counter to education polarization. The education polarization is deprived the conservative movement of its smart people, and not all of them, but a lot of them, like back in the days of regan, smart people tended to vote republican more than democrat, democrat for the party, the working class, whereas the educated people were republican types. And and that's totally shifted, totally flipped, you know, since then.

And it's worrying because I think that i'm going to write a lot more about this, but I think that the progressive, educated, sort of upper, middle of out of touch, in fact, common one SHE one voters making over hundred k year and SHE lot voters making fifty one hundred k and voters making less than fifty k SHE actually lost them our right to trump, according to exit post. Now, exit post have a margin era. Know something.

Sometimes get corrected. Response rates are weird, but that's astonishing, like the democrat are no longer the party, the working class, that the party educated upper class progressives. I'm worried about that because I think that educate up for class progressive live in a bubble.

Now writting tech people live in a bubble too. And right, like writing deck, people may feel that they have some sort of spiritual connection with the great masses who vote for the same candidate that they do. But you know, like like angry cab drivers yelling about how much immigration there is are not going to head icon.

Alright, there are. They are not coming to. They're not coming to like .

our parties or .

whatever yeah parties yeah and so yeah like there's that was going to say they're not going to the interview.

But ah class divide right .

there are is a big class vide. I don't know that I don't know that even shadow president elon has will knows how to help the real working class. Obviously, d regulation would would help in in something right.

But then, you know, in terms of just the basics that benefit the word class, I thought biden was really good. I thought sort of apprenticeship programs, like do the right thing type people really understand the value of those are printin programs. You know, everybody says these these pains to you.

They they pay their respects to the idea of people who work for a living instead of going to college because they know that college people tend to vote democrat. But at the same time, like, how are those people going to get a boost IT? The regulation isn't always enough. You like apprenticeship programs can really help people a lot, and also can build our manufacturing workforce, location, education, stuff like that. Will they really like and biting was all in on that, you know like, so what will the what will the approach each for that?

I know I I wish biden was five years Younger, whatever. Like, I I was a great candidate like I I think he appealed to he like, thread the needle in in a bunch of interesting ways. And it's it's really unfortunate that IT played out for the democrats the way I did was they not only could they not get by in, but they couldn't sort of do the first principles. Let's let's get the best you know, candidate are possible.

That's right. And biden made a big mistake when he picked commons VP, which was done for identity public politics purposes, right? You know, he promised to pick up black woman.

And IT was either common heroes like sty abrams or whatever. Obviously, mico obama is the correct c but but yes, so you know, IT IT was stupid. IT was a product of twenty twenty wilkses. And you know democrats are still paying the Price heavily for for the woke era.

But at least this is an opportunity for reset, a strong opportunity for reset. And so let's talk about that reset if how do dams regroup right now? What do you think should be the the strategy, the issues to focus on the type of candidate? How do we, you know, make twenty, twenty eight a very different and that you not just only the mid term is that I know where do we go from here.

I so i'm actually I am in the middle in this post. Unfortunately, it's not going come out as early as I wanted because I have all these doctors appoints today. But yeah, I sort of come out this evening, I think, but I basically have have two sort of less immediate lessons from the election.

The first one is appealing to, especially his panic voters and asian voters as racialist blocks is a fAiling strategy. The idea that there's unified latino community that you have to talk to and and approach with sort of 它 ino ethnic targeted policies is broken。 I saw exit poll showing the trump won a solid majority of his panic men in america, fifty four percent according the washing post exit poll, but which is probably the best exit ple you're going to find.

And although exit poles are the limitations, bob, but winning, actually winning his panic man in the country, that makes you think about the republican of opposition, fear of immigration, like coming over. It's a isp antic men, of course it's their kids. I'll be able to vote and half the movie women bobble.

But like this sort of fear of espanol men is this invasion army? Military age men like you just won those military age men bra, like, that's who voted for you. And like that, that was the big shift, in fact, Harris, one more White vote, a larger percent of the White vote.

And by IT was the big shifts among espana. And to a smaller degree, you know, black votes, and of course, asian votes, but with a smaller number. But the panic vote was the big shift IT with this panic, men won this for trump, you know, and a despite and like put a week and shifted melly to trump despite, like the stupid comedian called IT a garbage. I will will .

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because there was just more socially conservative. What you think is, why did hesba ic gyp shift?

I mean, social and conservative is one thing. I think that his spanish vote as individuals, and we democrats stop treating them as individuals. Conservative values are one aspect of people's individuals.

M, I personally believe in traditional marriage. I personally believe that a man can become a woman or whatever, right? Like they.

They have these values, and you can yell them, say it's anti L G G B D Q. But more to the point, it's IT is what people believe as individuals and then also economic mobility. So I think you've seen massive economic mobility by hispanic people.

Economic research suggests that his panic can comes across. The generations are converging with wide incomes. It's only continued immigration of poor people that keep the average lower, right? If you look at cowd wise, you see that the hispanic incomes are converging toward the White average.

And if you know if you win immigration from that amErica sort of hall, you'll see the conversion of the averages too. Because this antics are very uprising mobile. There's been a massive, massive explosion of hesba c starting businesses, high growth entrepreneurship, sure, but but small businesses, which are the majority of businesses by far overwhelmed majority businesses, starting a small country is small local business.

And David just been on a chair and then his panic home moerner creates a rising education roles like his plans are following the success sequence of american Green. And if IT is rewarding them with increased income across the generations, speaking english basically by by the second generation, but especially about the third, like spending all speak english, you know. And so the the democrats have completely watched this.

They ve completely ignored this economic success and conservative values. They've ignored IT because theyve insisted on treating his panics like a race. Ized minority group have insisted on treating his panics, how black people have been treated throughout american history and the fact that they wanted to give them goody's. Like, you know D I benefits or special government contracts or whatever, that's a booby prize in american life.

That's that's that's not even plan b that's like plan like dear f you know like that's that's that's what you get when there there basically some like barriers that are so hard to overcome that they will never be like they will be overcome in the in the near future that sort of racal zed pro hipster discrimination. That's what democrats are offering. And I think that that deeply popular.

I think you saw this by you saw the the, the, the word, the tanks, or I guess it's supposed we have financial tina mountain of fuck because, you know, this word is stupid or renounced. However, I feel so. But the word attacks, the more ismania people heard this, the less they voted for democrats.

IT caused a statistically ally significant shift during the republicans to hear this term. And the people theory, zo, it's because it's an LGBT custom. No one knows that.

No one knows that why the x is there. They they hear that. They hear racist exclusion.

They hear someone treating them as a member of a block instead of as an individual racial block. And you can hear this in the way democrats constantly talk about communities. The latter ino community know kala released her economic plan for the late tino community.

But latino are not a community. They are individuals. They are part of the american community, or the local communities in which they result.

They reside, you know, the hideo. I like community, like, you know the santorini community. That's a communities, more or less america's community. The latino community is not really community. And treating IT as a community singles out and others and excludes people.

If you want to use some academic sociology language here, IT tells you you're a, you know, you're not part of the american mainstream. You're not you don't stand on your own two feet. You stand as a, as you exist as a finger or a tentage of a racialized block that's bigger than you and that's just the way your life is.

And then, you know, maybe we will give you a racial blocks and goodies if democrats win. I don't think that most of bank people want to be really like that. I want to think about that.

That's not the story that they came here for, their ancestors came here for, the grandparents and parents came here to for. That's not the story that they came over the american dream for individualism, which includes ideological individuals and which which includes individuals. M of success.

So I think that democrats need to start thinking about the spanning. And agents, by the way, know, I know there's stop and hate boba, and I know that they need to start things in these people's individuals. Ethnic politics come emerge from threat.

The reason you saw asian ethnic politics kick out a bunch of progressives in the bay area was because asian people were collectively threat from crime. Absent that threat, asian people would vote much more individualism ally. And they do.

You know, there is an agent shift to the trump, although is harder to see, because this fear people. But there is an agent shift third trumpet. And a lot of IT was over crime.

You know, you've seen ancient voters worrying about crime. And but then, you know, asian people, as much as the panic people have, and starting from a highball, have succeeded economically in america. Not all obvious, some people don't. But but overall, that's the story. You know, the american dream.

I remember in twenty fifteen, the university of conflating issued guidance to faculty, saying that you should never tell your students that amErica is the land of opportunity because that minimize of the history of racial exclusion boba aba. And that is bulch in amErica is the land of opportunity. I can prove IT with numbers, right? And i'm i'm fighting back like for for you know, african immigrants to LED of opportunity.

And you know it's it's democrats have gotten away from that story of of do IT yourself upward mobility. So essentially, you know encouraging encouraging upward mobility in our existing system, helping people start a business. Now I think that commonly here I did support small business, but that didn't make IT through the noise.

He talked a lot about small business for economic policy plans, had a lot of stuff for small business. But I think that, that hasn't necessary made IT. That hasn't cut through the noise that take that will take a long time before people know that if you're a small business person, democrats on your site.

And so I think that sort of support for so don't treat people like a permanently disadvantaged racialized group. Treat them as people who can succeed on their own two feet because it's it's largely true. You know, obviously, black people may be be different because there's at least black people who aren't decended from recent immigrants.

Eight off, if you will, do one of these neologisms that's different. And so so black people still vote ninety percent for for democrats, right? Although just made a little bit of an error of black men, I think something like maybe twenty percent of black men did vote for trump and then like seven percent of black women or three percent some ridiculous these small number.

A black women voted for trump, but then some black men, ted. So there were some inroads. But overall, largely, black people do vote still as a homogeneous racial block in support of the democrats.

And so democrat message to black people has to be different than their messaging dispensed. s. And agents, basically, should their message for black people should be different than a different message, should be A A special message for black people. Then a message for for overall people know, including black people about including everybody.

So that's the best I can come up with because you know of course, when you have a minority like my people that votes ninety percent democrat, you're that's party your base, right? You have to get to that base on some way, but and that's unavoidable, right? But then at the same time, that can't be your dominance and you can't just cookie cut or copy that approach and apply that every quote, quote community. And so that's that's my first suggestion. First, before you go to number two, what do you think about like my full of crap peer?

Well, I just want to echo that from personal experience. My mom is his band. You know, he is a columban immigrant from columbia, and her siblings move to miami, move to florida.

And they're all trump. Them and their family are all all trump supporters. One of them actually works for the R.

N C. On behalf of the espana division. And so in doing communication stuff. So they would echo everything you just said. And IT IT seems like what you recommending is accelerating the shift from sort of in a race based sort of edo by identity politics to more class based approach and in a focus on economic opportunities. Is that a good a good summary of where you think the party needs to go?

A class based? Yes, but then but a lot democrats, a lot of times when they hear class based stuff, they think about the unions, you know, support unions support has been massively roading. You know, some unions refuse.

Some prominent unions refuse to support the democrats. Union sports been and organized labor is not a big force in the private sector. Most unions are government unions.

That means they're educated professionals. They're not the real working class. And this is the most annoying thing that i've encountered from professional lt. Progressive culture. Well, maybe not the most knowing, but among the most annoyed is the educated professionals have started treating themselves as the working class and believing that they are the working class because they're in a union, a government union, a teachers union, a graduate student union for god sake like that doesn't make you work in class.

The fact that you're in the union and in fact, fd r was opposed to government from any reasons, but when they're not really working class. And so I mean, to the degree that we have you going to have a working class, the private sector is mostly non unionized and the unions that exist are often more skilled workers in some sort of small protected classes of of private occupation like docks words or something, right? That's not a government union, but IT is a there are monopoly there that make IT a little bit like a government.

The overall, like private sector unitization amErica mostly died. And I mean unionization, the car industry would die if we stop billing out the car to street like there's almost nothing left their private sector. Unions ation.

Democrats have just really gone in hard for unions because they think that the work in class, but this is another manifestation of of the attempt to treat people as members of groups instead of individuals, is the idea that unions are your key to your labor community, if you will. And so the working class, you back in marches day IT, was clear what what meant to be working class, right? It's IT meant.

You works in factory, your poor labor, usually in the countryside. Who goes and works in one of these like dirty, dangerous, loping factories of the eighteen hundred ds, that's what I meant. And there were a lot of those people and were there were pretty homogeneous class, like you could just classify them, say, look that those guys, you know, those factory workers from the countryside who came worked in these horrible sweatt shops like, yeah that there was a class nowadays and manufacturing increasing automated.

And you know the diversity of occupations has has grown most people working services. And what that means means anything from like an email job to like IT for some consultancy or like you know for the I don't know anything medical stuff, obviously be a receptionist to cashier somewhere or you know all these these service industry occupation, these far flung you a waiter, obviously it's trying to think of of cool examples, but yes, boring. These are all very different from each other.

You know, people's lives are different. Their incomes may be somewhat similar, at least in the same bulker, same general region, the same bulker, but like they're not as unified a class. The idea of class politics is we could still do class politics, but it's not that's not a silent people don't think of themselves as I am labor. I am the workers the way they did in nineteen and thirty.

It's not like i'm a factory worker who works in heavy industry plants and i'm ready to lay down my tools and strike like that's just not how most people are any more of the people we call working class, working class and become a name for a region of the income belka or sometimes A A reference to people who didn't go to college. But people who didn't go to college don't feel kincher er with each other. You didn't go to college, I didn't go to college or great college.

You didn't go to go blue. Not like that's not how things work. And so so like these aren't classes. So so I think class focus politics is not necessarily the way you want to think of this either.

I think basically you want to think about a like being pro free enterprise and and pro you know sort of individual initiative success by block basic pro individualism. And I think that a lot of the success is of liberalism is opposed to progressive ism. So I think we're starting to realize there is a distinction which we do.

I think that a lot of this came from individualism. So with the civil rights movement, obviously, the famous marketing with king line treat you based on the content of character, not the color. And bob ba, that was the message of anti racism.

If you're anti racism in the seventies, IT meant you should have the opportunity standing in your own two feet and be, instead of being treated as a, as a racial, as a member of a racing block, you should be treated as an individual. And that morphed into, oh, actually, you should be treated as a member of a preferred racial block and get all these racial block bonuses. No, we've got ta write the first time.

Like the individualism of the civil rights movement was, I think, key to its widespread acceptance. And we need to go back to that individualism. The idea that racism is should be treated not as a thing we need to harness for good, but as a bad.

Like racial discrimination is not a forced to be hardest for for quota anti racism. Racial discrimination is actually just something that keep people from being able to live lives as individuals. And we need to reduce IT. I'm writing all this in my post. It's going to be sort of a long round.

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Yes, so I hear that on on a sort of you know read record or spiritual level. Where do you think that Robert is the road in terms of policy, in terms of the for the democrat sort of plan? Uh, going forward, you think there's any major changes on a policy level? Or do you think you it's mostly on a on a rhetoric and spirit al level.

I think that commonly have the basic ingredient ents of a successful policy program, and I think that people don't care about policy programs that much. Look at reagan. Reagan talked about getting the government off your back.

Did he actually shrink government spending? No he did not. He got taxes and then raised them again when device its got too high.

But then but he didn't get government off your back. He appointed some deregulatory minded people or some people who are inclined to enforce regulation, more relaxing, right? He did that, but he did not actually deregulate anything like he didn't.

Carter did all the big deregulatory actions, right? Carder regulated trucking and rail and natural gas and coal and oil and electricity and beer, actually, which is why we have all these microbes, ries and you, all these things. Carter deregulated these and banking.

Carter deregulated finance. Read didn't regulate shit. He just appointed some people who are a genuine friendly to regulation by temperament. But he didn't really deregulate regular, just talked about this. And I think that this didn't break through the Harris, partly because you didn't have enough time and partly because IT wasn't a big enough IT wasn't an important enough message.

I think that americans are not their chief problems, are not insufficient support for small business or whatever vocational education training, I don't know that's not the main problem in life. It's something you want to do. It's good, but it's not going to be sufficient, right? Or housing in bi stuff that's good.

You need to do IT. I think that message will resonate increasingly breakthrough. But you know you're going to need, you're going to more than that, you're going to need a coherent story. Rhetorical c matters more than policy.

I think in presidential power and national al politics, I think at the city level, urban politics, you pay people out, you pay out favorite ite groups that often unfortunate, although sometimes that lets you get things done. But it's often unfortunate as we intend to go, have found. But but I think that at the national level, you need to tell the story about what kind of amErica you want to create.

And the democrats basic stories is broken, the democrats basic story of, you know, racial exclusion that Sarah is broken. We could be a Better country, but you know, we need to tell the story about how to how to be a Better country. I'm not saying this country is perfect.

I'm saying that the things that are annoying people in their daily lives and also know, I think, by the way, the other big lesson is going to say we need to learn from this election, is that people care about inflation more than on implement. Unexpected inflation reduces real wages and reduces real incomes. IT makes you poor.

And IT does that to everybody in the country. Whether unemployment only affects a small number people, even in depression, even in the great recession, unemployment on the affected ten present of people and under employment six percent more, right? But ultimately, I think that but you know, inflation pieces people off because IT just hurts everybody.

And you know IT causes uncertainty in a way, unemployment feels like something you have more control over. You don't have control over your grocery Prices, right? You have maybe you work really hard and keep your job. You can avoid the layoffs, maybe of some control, but then but then with inflation, there is nothing you can do is just so it's an act of god. You know, it's like you have no control.

So I think that people don't like that lack of control, just like that's why people are more afraid to flying their plane, you know them to drive a car, right? Because car maybe it's more dangerous to drive in a car then to take an airplane, but people feel like they have control like i'm a good driver. I'm not going to wipe out on the road.

I'm not going to drive drunk. I'm not going to fall asleep at the wheel, right? Like i'm i'm going to personally avoid the things that so I think that inflation make people mad because I lost control and people inflation make people mad because of it's much broader impact.

But I think that at this point, what's interesting is that in economics, there's this idea that we need to treat a point of inflation and a point of unemployment as the same thing. Like you just add these two things together, it's called a loss function. We need to start thinking about, for political purposes, inflation being more damaging them.

unemployment. We have to worry about inflation more than unemployment. So maybe tighter money is is going to be important. And of course, I worry about this with the guards to trump. You know whether trump could force the fed to lower interest rates.

And if shadow president ellis listening to this, I really hope that he stops trumps attempts to force interest state flower because that's going to be a hitch if he does that. The main macroeconomic mistake, the natural predator of of authoritarian regimes, by the way, is MC economics. Like the way you lose power is you scrip the economy and then you're in trouble or do want to almost feel pray to this.

And so having to like raise interest rates the whole lot, obviously this destroy like chavez M A do whatever. But then yes, so so watch out for that macroeconomics. yeah.

I think that democrats need to be able to tell a positive story about what what could be Better about this country. Obama told a positive story. IT wasn't just, you know, hope is just a word.

It's something you can put on a poster. But hope for what? Well, I think that you know, for some people, obama symbolically represented the hope for sort of racial healing.

And I think that that was part of the story. But I that was not all the story. Getting out of the iraq war was a huge part of obaa ma's appeal.

That's why he biller in the primary in two thousand eight, because he was against the iraq war and he was going to get us out of that war. That was really important to people, afghani, an wasn't as important, whatever ukraine, people didn't care about IT, but like, but but iraq was big deal. And and people wanted out of that war, and and he got them out.

And so the other thing was the great recession. So so there been a financial crisis, right? There was the economy is absolutely crashing two thousand eight.

And I was obviously due to the finance industry, obama was going save us into a large extended, did baillot really saved, just people don't want to hear that, but the bailouts save america's economy. Red stuff saved us stimulus ped. IT helped a bit.

IT wasn't big enough bit. IT helps a bit, you know. So between all that stuff, obama, obama didn't save us, but obama helped us a lot. And we ended up having a loss four years instead of a lost decade, right? Good outcome, obamas rewarded with three election.

And I think that that people memory hold that and think obama is an identity politics president, but he was not the reason people elect obama was not because he was black. People celebrate the fact that he was elected in spite of being black, which people who thought would be a barrier before that, you know, he broke down that barrier, but he didn't break IT down just by being black. He broke the barrier by getting inside of the iraqis and by promising to save america's economy from a crash.

That was what there was hope for, hope for the economy, hope for peace. That was what hope was about. Obama, his first term government is a conservative.

He set a bunch of conservative, retorted, and then he really cracked down immigration. You know, mass deportation. People know that this first term, obama deported four hundred thousand people. Did you know that?

I didn't even know that? I did. I did. Obama is the most inspiring president as a speaker that at this i've seen in my lifetime, I remember when he got elected, I was a sort of I was in college and and michigan and know sprinting to the diag to celebrate because he he had captivated me. He got me into politics and I haven't seen an inspiring speaker like like that since yeah .

and that's that's rare. You can just say nominate the best speakers because they're few and far between, right? Like he was a great speaker but but you Kennedy was a great or tour, but but there they're kind of a rare right?

I guess ragan was pretty good people like his speeches. But then yes. So like those are those are pretty are figures, I think, and you want to omino them when you get them right.

You want a prize speech making as those soundbites really travel, I think, including in the tiktok age. But so the substance of the stories is important and it's not we get confused between policy substance and story substance. Reagan didn't actually get the government off your back, but he said that's what he was about.

He had rtc ical substance, story substance, if not policy substance. And I mean, part of the reason he didn't actually do this because democrats, congress locked, but he had he had story substance that that was a substantive story about here's that your life will be Better. And simply, a long list of polis does not actually cut IT.

You know, bill clinton had a very strong story about what he was gonna. I was a kid, so I don't remembering entire clearly, but basically bill clinton story was that you're all going to get jobs as computer programmer. The economy is going to work for you.

This, this is your future. Your future is, as a computer proper. You we're we're going to baLance the budget.

We're going to do all the economic stuff. But then are are fundamental economy, strong technology. Mim, that that was bill clinton story.

Competent management of the macroeconomy. So you can go become a computer programmer or you to start a business, whatever. But then and then, yes, so and then bill clinton was gna fix the deficit.

That was a big thing. People don't remember that he he was the austerity candidate actually. Roster is there. Ross pro e got a significant chunk of the vote.

Heat rosarno o was an even bigger sterility candidate and probably ross road and take more votes from clinton than he did for bush because he was said they were both about austerity, right? Actually, you, George H. W.

Bush would love to do austerity, but had become the deficit candidate because regan policies were deficit policies, and hw had to defend them. SHE became the deficit, unwillingly became the deficit candidate, even though he was a fiscal conservative himself. So, but then that election was about austerity is like we're going to get rid of the deficit. You, we're going to and then of course, bill clinton later campaign on ending welfare as we know, IT babbo, which he did under republicans. Sure, but he did.

But then basically the the message of optimism was not just like you don't just put hope on a poster, right? You you tell people what to be optimistic about like i'm sure that many the kids in the die egg in two thousand eight, we're optimistic because of the symbolic of a black man getting elected meant that amErica was at post racism. Racism done, guys.

And i'm starting to think they were less wrong than we have said, because in a deeply racist country, would trump t really be winning his panic men? Would we really in in a country defined by racial conflict? Would we really know where a firm of action has been cancelled in bulb law? Would we really see substantial shifts of nonWhite voters to Donald trump despite, like, you know, comedians joking about porter rec s an island of garbage, whatever?

Would we really be seeing that in in a country whose main conflicts of racial in nature? Maybe not i'm not going to say racing doesn't exist in amErica isn't problem. But but the progressive negative of the twenty tens of the late twenty tens, you know, the post obama period, the progressive narrative of that period, was that racism was still was structural and is basically pervasive in american life, like this unrepressed force that just uses out of every poor and exists in every milk and crane with american life when we've gotten like send out the you in brim Candy types to like expunge IT in the D.

I. People to just expunge IT from every point of amErica line. And I don't think that, that is going to I think that can cut IT.

So is there candidate on on the left that that excites you that you think represents this? Like do you think shape o is interesting candidate in terms of personnel? How do you think about that going forward?

Yeah, I mean, I think the pears an obvious consideration and I think that everybody thought that he was that that Harris didn't choose him because of lefties who didn't like a prois formerly. Pro is real. Jeers guy.

Again, somewhat pro is real. Less empty is jewish guy, you know, on the ticket and the left he's forced come of him. I'm starting to think he turned her down.

I'm trying think he said they offered him and he said, no, maybe I don't know about that, maybe not. But I think maybe he would have turned IT down because now he has a chance to go for walls. Is his toast? probably.

But but superior actually has a chance. And so maybe he's that guy like he he he has a sort of obama like speaking style. I don't know if he's quite as inspiring, but then and he also gets things done, you know, you repair that collapse, I way really quit.

So and you know, in this crucial swing states, I think people will be looking at superior for sure. People will be looking at Gavin newsome. Gavin newsome needs to craft a message that is not just like I will baLance the competing special interests of california, but if given new, some can come up with an idea of what he's about.

Whitmire obviously is going to be a person that they look at. So there's actually a decent number of people. A lot of these people were sidelined from consideration in twenty twenty because they were White guys, right? People didn't want a White.

I maybe they sort of wanted boot dge because his gay White guy. But I identity be politics really took over. And the reason commons was select is because I promised to select the black one.

It's a identity based that needs to go. But now I think democrats give me thinking, let's get a White man still I didn't be based, but at least you less be like like picking White man as the White man. Dumb to right, but but at least i'll consider why me.

But then, you know, democrats have a fairly deep bench, I would say. And republicans, honestly, don't you? Trump is a singular figure. I don't know how enthusiast people are about jet events beyond the tech community. And then most republicans are sort of not you know there are there are old schools, fire breathing conservative types who maybe you're little Better in touch with the less educated people of amErica and certainly buying the some of the same you know like pot guest bullshit, but but definitely are not the same kind of like granda santis kind of flood, right? Greg rabbit, I don't know, doesn't inspire a lot of people.

So so where? And then the trumpets, the people who explicit follow the trump get like mad gates, you know, and mtg and all these people like these are obvious like creeps, which is what the reason I don't like trump, the pull, all the worst people is orbit. And then you've got, I don't know, and the guys like dan kencho on tom cotton and these sort of like, you know, those those are not aligned with the trump amp.

So I don't know know the democrats have a deep bench because there are a strong party there, a unified party. And as a strong party in unified party, they need to change their fundamental message. Identity politics got to go. Inflation got to worry about that.

But I think democrats will have a new biden did actually beat inflation and it's going to take people while to realize that if trump er raises inflation again, democrats have a chance and they'll be like hope for low inflation right like remember biden he beat inflation. Trump raised IT again. So trump raised inflation. I think that could that could really hurt republicans. I think that unless shadow president in line and restraining trump may do things that incase in station a lot.

Let's go back to this prompting of if we could tell if if state the shadow president elon is is listening. We talked what what could we put in his year to tell trump we talked about, you know, interest rates. what? What are the other things? Of course we can talk about terrorists. We can talk about don't support people in math. What would the things that you think are most .

important thing to do? yes. So so obviously, interestingly, can't be forced to lower inflation Spike. You know, the regulation of sure is already do that, focus that housing, the regulation that's going to be important, land use, focus on nipa. You know, not just not just whatever.

I mean, obviously space ex has been nipped before so so nursing nipa would be really useful for shadow present you want to do let's see high steele immigration. It's got to be important and that's know yeah I think I think that maybe racial depolarization ation will make republicans is less worried about that. But elon certains exists in the tech business and knows how important skilled immigrant sarda america's technological stuff so that's that's I think what what chat w president elan should should do all that stuff, whether we will or not is another question.

I think that you know we like to think that iran is a very business focus guy and and he still that he thinks about business. But then I think that to some degree he's ut very caught and cultural worst stuff. There's once you've made two hundred billion dollars like you move on to the next round of mails hierarch to self accusation, which we've learned the means ship posting.

And I think a lot of elan behavior in politics been driven not necessarily by like overregulation of violence businesses, whatever, although that certainly didn't help, right. But I think a lot of IT is just cultural or stuff. You know I think his kid's trans, you know, he's he's mad about that. He's mad about a lot stuff, mad about weakness.

And and I think a lot of a lot of his actions will be culture or related, which trump is totally freeze with and and then know I also think shed a present, elon may have a shelf life, like unless trump dies in office prety soon and jd vands takes over, in which the shadow present in on could remain. But I think that trump is not gona tolerate out to president. I'm for very, very long and as long as he alive.

So I think that short presentation may have a shelf life here. So I think it's in the first year. What's really going to matter a lot. We talk about how .

the you the clinton election was that was, you know what keep major world is austerity the obama election one major theme was iraq. What do we think looking back at this election the major story will be that guided so so many voters for for chop is or appeal of woodness. Is that immigration?

Is that something else? I mean, immigration inflation. Other two things say.

yeah.

the immigration and inflation are the two things. Those are the two. Those are the two big things. I think, and I don't know, you know, not a political scientist, I don't know and I don't know that I can tell you definitively if that what matters people may be using those as proxies for being upset about culture wars.

People may just use that as proxy for not like in common areas as a person or then just or just the you lingering ango ver weakness or or maybe that those really matter a lot. You know, like I think if you just look at the the polls, immigration, inflation dominate what everybody says is the most important issue in those people voted for trump. I think that inflation had reduced a lot in civilians by the time of election.

They left a bad taste people's mouth. But I think IT, the silence of IT was far reduced. But I think that, you know, immigrations got to be a big one.

So I think that that, you know, democrats have to to pivot to encourage, you know, encouraging legal immigration and then and then being and I like they've got a fixed the silent thing and fortunately there are trump s is sort of created opening for them to do that. Because he he hasn't really yet proposed to fix the asylum law that is the root cause of all this. He's just taking executive actions to try to stanch the flow of of people across the border. But he hasn't really he hasn't really addressed the fundamental route. The problems of democrats could maybe know flink by doing that.

But I think ultimately what the democrat story is going to be in two thousand twenty eight will be based on whatever trump does that a mistake if trump makes big mistakes and and trump is an old guy and he has some dumb ideas and he surrounds himself a lot of the worst people, if trump makes big mistakes, such as a return of inflation, such as crashed and economy some other way, such as, you know, stocking sort of some sort of mass conflict fighting, trump spends whole time like fighting with the military, you know, or trying to like, change the electoral systems that nobody can vote, or whatever. Like if he does these things, the people will be angry about those, and democrats can run on a reaction to those things, just as obama ran on a reaction to the financial crisis in the iraq war, just as the clinton ran as a reaction to do that, just as trump ran as a reaction to inflation, immigration, right, or the, you know, whatever, like people run just as as regan ran as a reaction to, like overbear government and inflation and things like that, and the sop union. So and and also is the possibility we might see a world war, in which case all these things are moved. And we talk about that another episode.

so that we end on a more, more optimistic note, although that is a good, good clipping. Her, I just want to send that and we can do IT epson on this too. But let just say word about a couple minutes, about seven cisco, because there was a foot. The supervisor IT IT, seems like there was A A big moderate win last night, and maybe we have good friend Michael lie.

or someone allama mood one, my guy won. We had a blam, a mood fundraisers at my house. amaze. Why should people be?

We can do a whole expression this at some point, but why should people be a excited about what what changes do we expect to happen?

Now I think I can. A really good guest for that.

Amazing that let's start, gary chance. Oh, that be great.

Gary chance of us.

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