Rates Surge Back Up as the Election “Slowdown” Hits Housing
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Do presidential elections historically affect the housing market? Why on earth armer gate ate still going up? And what are some of the best companies where you can grow your career? That and more on today's show?

Everyone is dave. Welcome to on the market. This is one of our patented headlined show where we bring you with the latest headlines in real estate and a business so you can help keep up with the market and make smart investing decisions.

And of course, to sprinkle on our own hot takes to help you separate what's actually going to help you with your investing career from stuff that's just type. Usually I sit through the news and bring four headlines to talk about, but instead I have assigned to my esteemed panellist a topic or ask them to bring their own topic. So we have Cathy fec, James dinner and Henry washington joining us today. Thanks you all for being here. Great to be here.

Grad to be here.

Good to see guys. right? Well, let's just jump right into a James. What story did you bring for us today?

Well, as we know, we got a lot of things went on in the news covering the election. It's it's the day election day.

There's a there's a no election this year.

I mean, I see IT ever wants in a wild trending on twitter. So I fig or this a little bit more. It's not even twitter and more is more x but yeah, no, I wanted to bring in this arctos going to talk about this today because I keep hearing a lot in the community.

I know Henry, your flipper. I'm a flipper. And a lot of investors that are doing development flipping in doing that high return dispositions right now, we're feeling a slowdown and there's a lot of consumer confidence slowing down.

And i'm certainly see a panic when we just have to remember that things slow down when things change. I mean, Henry, have you had much showing activity on your listening or that slow down? The metal bodies that we're seeing through our houses are down like eighty percent over the last of thirty days.

eighty percent. Yeah, it's big.

Yeah, it's a little different here for a number of reasons that I could expand on if you want me to. But uh, we're saying maybe a little bit of a slowdown in the amount of body like the amount of showings i'm getting seems reasonable for the market that we're in.

yeah. I am just curious if you think it's the elections or interest strates have cropped up .

is actually of data about this. I don't know if you have the same thing here, James, but in in red for and they did a survey recently, a perspective home buyers in twenty five percent of people who said they wanted to be buying a home right now said they are waiting until after the election ah to buy. So IT does feel like people are deliberately choosing not to look at homes right now that I don't know this is investors, but this is all homebuyers are waiting in for a couple of reasons. But James, did you see something anything .

similar to the affect the housing market? And here's what experts saying. This is about the Molly fool. There's a bunch of different articles out there.

But you know, what I think is important right now is people look at and in facts, you know, investors, buyers were so emotional and they're going on, oh, well, you know, there's all this pent up demand like where they're just talked about consumer confidence down. They want to wait when when buyers are unsure, they kind of sit on the sidelines. They're trying to time rates, they're ying to time the election and you have the bias set on the sidelines.

And that's what we're seen as the showing activities way down. And what this article really talks about is what what's the historical trends and the historical trends are. IT really doesn't do anything based on the election.

IT slows down cells and volumes, but IT doesn't make them market go up. IT doesn't make the market go down. IT doesn't cause the interest rates to go up.

IT doesn't cause the interest rates to go down. Policy does, but not the election. Typically, the market stays about the same and goes up the typical appreciation rate.

There's only been a few times where we've seen to go the other way, which was in two thousand eight, home Prices fell twelve percent. And then in both elections in the eighties, the market came down a little bit because high interest rates in the economic environment. So the economy in the policies and what's going on affects the real state more.

And I think everyone is over thinking this right now. Flips are going on. I can my house that high.

just sit down for a minute that will sell again.

We're i'm here and investors go what i'm going to wait for of this because I think this is gonna happen, and we have to look at the trends in the history to really make those decisions. And one thing i'm really glad I did, we're just our purchase in arizona actually. And my banker called me about thirty days ago and he's like, hey, you want to lock your rate? He's like a cook.

Go down a little bit more and I was think I could go down a little bit more too, but I like you want just lock. And we walked in a five point one two five. Thank god I did this because IT would be a half point higher than what IT is today or if not, more time in the markets. One of the worst things we can try to do in this article talks about like there's no it's gonna slow down because it's more more confidence, but the market not going up or down or rates IT all depends on was one on the economy and the policy that goes through. And you I just keep here in all this chatter, the markets going to explode up.

I don't know. Have you heard of the term called the trump trade?

I have not right.

Well, i'll share IT in a minute because I think your IT has to do with your um your topic your hand ry which is about mortgage rates.

right? Cool, so will save IT for me. But let's say i'm just happy that James locked in his rate when he did because a half point higher on a mortgage that James danner kino ford is probably like two thousand dollars a month.

Bit more actually it's for .

the rest of is like fifty seven dollars for James. It's like eight grand.

But I can see where i've never seen so much fear on both sides. Each side feels like if the other side winds gonna lose democracy. And and that's scary. Is not that's terrifying. So I could see where there is, you know, perhaps fear holding people back.

Here's what I think IT is. And maybe i'm oversimplifying things, but I think the general public, now, this is how I think they feel, not not based on any sort of reality. I think the general public feels no matter who wins, they're probably going to want to stimulate the economy.

And so they're hoping that whoever wins will help bring interest rates down so that they are waiting to jump in because the hopes are that interest rates will come down because the new candidate will wanted to you live the economy. But at the end of the day, I don't think it's going to make very much of an impact in the near future for rates. And also, both candidates have policies that could have impacts on the housing market.

But I don't know that the impacts you're planning for are the actual impacts we'll happen. And honestly, nobody knows. And so I think people are just there's fear and there's a hope that they can get in with lower rates.

Yeah well, I think what are the specific things in this red from surveyors talking about earlier that they mentioned was that if vice present Harris wins, SHE has proposed to twenty five thousand dollar grant for for first time home buyers. So I think I don't know if over me and I was the first time home buyer, i'd probably wait and see if I was going to get twenty five grand, you know. So there is, I think, more in this election because so much has been focused on housing and housing affordability that like maybe people are going to see which way .

the wind yeah I think IT is important. no. Like how to take practical steps as in investor, not speculate. We can guess all we want market will go up. It's going to go down.

But it's really like, you know a set of building an appreciation set of thinking that it's give me worth more. Just pats your performa. You know like if you're going and you think the markets can be slow where you're disapointment the winner or the election time, then add a couple of whole bonds to your turn times.

Absolutely, if rates are jumping up and down, assume the worst. And as long as you assume the worst ed in your underwriting, you can still transact. Because people get is like a little thing happens, little blip, and everyone gets cold feet.

They freeze up, they lock up and I forget the noise. Look at the history. Look at the economy. Pad your purchasing.

Yes, one hundred percent. That is the advice for investors. If you are thinking about this.

I literally had a conversation this morning. Think about this. I am in arkansas. I am making an offer on a house whose v is two hundred thousand and I am debating I had I made an offer at forty thousand and the lady countered me at forty eight thousand only in eight thousand dollar difference of a two hundred thousand dollar house and I said, no I said, no. I'm sticking to my number of forty thousand because I am underwriting a long whole time even though it's a two hundred thousand dollhouse, which there's only like ten of those on the market right now like I am sticking to my numbers because of the uncertainty and that's the discipline I think you have to have as a investor if you want to be successful because I don't want to be holding onto this thing for six, eight, nine months and be mad that all my profit got eaten up by holding cost.

right? We're going to take a short break, but stick with us will talk mortgage rates and the trump trade on the other side.

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Welcome back to on the market. Let's move out to our our second topic, Henry. I think years is kind of related. We start talking about rates. I think that's where you you're coming in with.

absolutely. So my article comes from real estate news, duck com, and the headline is real estate is in for a fright as mortgage rates return to seven percent spoke I so essentially the article is talking about mortgage ge rates have gone back up to seven percent after we had the recent drop in interest rates.

And the concern is that this surge could or is expected have an impact for homebuyers because now rates are higher, which means more people are again Priced out and causes a problem for affordability. Um also this can lead to a decrease in demand for homes and cause these longer hold times that we were talking about because there will be or are less buyers because of the interest rates. And if you couple that with the election and the fear that we just talked about, I think that there are some truth to that you're going to see longer hold times.

That question is for how long do we expect these hold times to be in the article kind of conveys this tone that is emotional. So it's more, uh, emotional and how people feel than fact because there are facts that support both sides of the argument for the real estate market, right? There are effects that say we don't have enough inventory to support the demand and so that the market should be moving quicker, then we are seeing IT move.

And there are also facts that support that the market is slowing down and that they are less buyers. And so if people can't rely on the facts so they don't know which facts to trust them, they rely on their emotions and how they feel. And right now, IT feels scary and IT feels terribul ent and nothing that that's gonna lead to the slowdown.

So what do you guys think about the interest rates at seven percent? Do you think it's going to cause the longer whole times? Or do you think it's just more the same?

I feel like so many people were confused that when the yes said cut rates that this would be .

or you know mortgage rates.

many times we are from the rooftop that's not. And I still thought that would happen right in one of our shows, we were guessing where rates would be, and I thought they would keep going down. And here they are going up.

So we're still in this really is strange economy where the market is is so strong. Our latest um jobless claims report was low again, which means fewer people are losing their jobs. And when the bond market sees that they rally, they start investing in stocks with less fear about A A pending recession.

So that's that's this place we're in of if we want to see rates mortgage rates go down, that generally means things aren't as good in the economy. And when things are hot in the economy, that generally means mortgage rates go up. So it's a mixed bad, right? It's somewhat of a strong economy.

At least a lot of people don't think so. But the jobs report is telling us that and mortgage rates follow. So I personally .

think Green for like a pretty slow winter housing market wise, I don't see mortality rates coming down all that much for the next couple of months because although the the activity does have some impact on the immoderate rates, I actually think the president of election is having an impact on mortgage rates to explain in just a second. But it's also just remember that it's just a seasonally slow time of year. And so like it's probably going to be chilly and not a lot of transactions volume going into the winter anyway. But I told you guys about something they called the trump trade, and i'm not surprised you even going to heard this because only people who read about bond .

investors and bond .

nerd sentiment know about this. And I do.

And you do need to understand the bond market if you want to understand.

RAID did do. So I read about bond deals, and basically, bon yields have been going up. This is a reminder bin yields almost perfectly correlated mark rates.

And so if you want to know what's happening with merger rates, you look at what's happening with bony yields. And bony yields have been going up despite interest rates going down, which is a little bit unusual. But boney els go up for a couple of reasons.

Some of those reasons are inflation fears. Other times, it's when other assets are doing Better. Like if there is potential of sock markets going to do really well, people own bonds that lawyers demands that puts up yields.

Both of those things are potentially going to happen if trump wins. So that's basically what people think is if trump wins, a lot of the policies that he's promised to do are stimulative like tax cuts, for example. And we are to see the labor's market doing well.

So with lower recession risk, that usually pushes bin yields up. And the second thing is he said he was going to impose tariff s terf s ten to be, or historically have been inflationary. And so when you look at these two things, you see IT might be stimulative and inflationary.

Both of those things tend to push a bony els, which is probably why we see more gita ates going up right now or is at least one of the reasons why mortgage rates tes are going up right now? So long story. sure.

The reason I don't think rates will move that much is because even if trump wins in november, he doesn't get inaugurated til january, then when you have to see what policies actually happened. And so I just think whoever wins, we won't know what they're going to do until probably february. And so a lot of the uncertainty that we're feeling in the market is not going to be answered by the election, is actually probably going to be answered by the new president's first hundred days in office shop. Anyway, that's my my tangent about bongos.

That is if we know who's president by february.

don't say that, please. Let's hopefully we know.

Yes, i'm with you. I hope we just .

know what the one thing about this article that Henry brought. And though rates could be up toward seven percent, the market could really slow down. But we were just in that market nine to five months ago, right? And things were .

transacting. IT was fine.

might slow growth. But it's like, you know just remember, like what is experience recently with this? I think this was not that long ago, three to seven percent. We're just right almost there anyways.

Also, guess what happened? Three hundred and sixty five days ago, I won the flop on rates hit seven percent.

Well, yeah. And then what we saw to during that time, they started going in the seventh at the end of the year and low seven. And then we saw this massive explosion at first quarter of two thousand.

Twenty four was a rocket ship for appreciation. I mean, dave, that's why we time that deal so well. Our flip off house jumped ten percent in sixty days because of that rap up, and that's wide up at seven percent rate. And so you know I don't know you can transact IT IT will be fine. You'd scared gesture numbers and right.

Better sit on the properties a little longer theyll sell when they sell, you'll make money. People need houses.

Well, yeah, every I totally get that. But I do think like especially if you're new, it's a little no wanting to see. But just a reminder that yeah, no one knows what's going to happen.

People thought rates we're going to fall. They did not. You could have locked in at James is right now people are kicking themselves.

Best thing to do is just admit that none of us know what's going to happen. And if you can find a deal that works now, do IT alright. We're going to stay on our politically themed episode today. So Cathy, tell us what IT what headline and story .

you bringing prop thirty three in h in california. And this is another rent control bill that is has been turned down twice in the last last two times the california voters actually voted against rent control, which is shocking. But IT seems pretty fifty fifty right now.

Um basically what this would do, prop thirty three would repeal that cost a hawkins rental housing act of one thousand ninety five and that act really was kind of program. And lord, I guess you could say which is again shocking for california because IT limits rent control on single family homes, on condos and on new apartments. Uh, and this if if APP third three passes, IT would repeal that and allow local governments to decide whatever rent control they want.

So from what I understand, most counties are just gonna keep what they've got because Gavin newsom already passed a law in two and nineteen. Limiting rent controls in general, basically is captured five percent plus inflation. But for many people are still too much.

They say still too much the rent, as they say in the bill, the rent to deam high. So even with with that bill, people don't want to see red scope, especially when inflation was at nine percent plus five that's year. Although it's capped, it's still at ten percent even regardless of what inflation is.

So we already kind of have rent control. But if prop thirty three passes, then single family home owners would have rent control and also new apartment. So as you can imagine, I would think a lot of developers would not be so interested in building new apartments, which is desperately needed.

We are we have a shortage of housing. Uh, wouldn't they wouldn't be so incentivised if they have caps on on the rent. Also right now, if you are rent controlled, but the tenant moves out, you can raise rents and prop thirty three will not allow that.

So really even on turn over yeah .

you .

a lot of times people in under rent control will never leave right to stay in the same place. And IT might be of a studio apartment or one bedroom when theyve got four kids. But they won't leave because there they have such low brand.

But in this case, they could move. So from a tenant perspective, that allows that mobility. But from a landlord perspective, i'll tell you what I I mean, I already don't invest in california, but I think a lot of other people would join me in that. And then there will be less rental housing in my opinion.

I mean, just living through IT here in the netherlands s they passed a rent control bill last year. It's a little bit more complicated. There's a point system and I don't know this whole thing.

Long stories, short rental Prices have gone up like crazy because as soon as this thing went into a affect, all of the lads started selling their homes because there was just too risky to run the business. And so. Now there's just less rental supply.

And you know what, housing Prices didn't go down at all. It's not like, you know the new rental supply hitting the market help to make purchasing more affordable for the average person. And so now what you have is just fewer rentals for the same amount of renters.

That's onna set up Prices because unlike the bill Cathy was talking about here, when attention moves out, you can reset IT to market rates. And so what happens as as soon as someone moves out, rents are going up ten, fifteen, twenty percent. And that makes IT even more difficult for people who are trying to find a new apartment.

So, you know, obviously it's a different country, different type of situation. But rent controls just one of those things every time it's been tried. Liberal city, conservative city, no matter what, IT just hasn't worked. IT doesn't work in the way that is intended to. And so I get that it's politically popular, but IT is not grounded in any sort of research or like any sort of evidence.

Well, that hasn't been I mean, it's lost twice. So I could this could fail again. Ironically, the person behind the bill apparently owns apartments, and they call him this lemon D I don't know if that's true or why you know this would be allowed, but in cities like berkeley, where if this passed, berkeley would absolutely and act structure and control laws.

That's what they been trying to do. And when you've got a city like berkeley, if you have any city that is constricted in growth, and in the case of berkeley, you've got water around. You used around by water, and then behind is like nature.

It's A A park. So there's really no way to grow unless you grow up, right? So then you would need more apartments to provide more housing.

And if the farm owners don't want to come in, well, you know that's a problem. So yes, and is high, no question. But it's also california right in its crowded cities, and it's never not been expensive.

I mean, I think the problem with that is that we're trying to untie housing Prices and rent Prices here and there. They're tied together. We can you can untie them if you want to continue to have a supply of homes to rent, then housing Prices and rent Prices need to be tied together.

And if you enact a rent control, people will do just what dyve said is still try to get out, sell those properties and then you have less properties available for people to rent, which is going to increase the Prices. And if the Prices go up and the rate doesn't go up, then you that's not going to fix any sort of supply issue. So I mean, I just think you can't untether the two. And thank you. If to solve the problem, in other words, you have to solve for affordability and rent at the same time.

yeah, because it's going to diminish. Ly, yeah, like the math does not work. Lanes expensive.

Mony's expensive. Construction cost are expensive. Let's keep your income down. Who wants to buy into that? That doesn't make any sense. And that's going to a make less unless counter market multifamily permits about slow down dramatically because of this, you know not just because of rent control, because of these cost.

And then if you cap the potential in the real thing in investing, that me a major issue you cannot pay for this. Banks won't even lend you money. If your income is cap to a certain, how are you supposed to build this if a bank won't lend you money? Yeah, you know, I feel like california is smoking too much of whatever IT is like california was the dream nineties to early the analisa two thousand and ten. I think you .

know specifically, we are speaking about the article, which is about rent control. And I don't necessarily think that the solution that's not to say that I don't think we need some sort of Better affordable housing and affordable rent location like as a landlord, i'm still all for finding and affordable rent solution. I just don't think this is the approach.

And just a reminder that the writers at the bigger pockets blog to a great job of breaking down issues like california ais prop thirty three, so good to bigger pockets stock com slash blog if you want to learn more all right, time for one final break. But we've got a business headline for you right after this.

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by low cell high. Very easy to say, but not always so easy to do. For example, high interest rates are hurting the real estate market right now. Demand is dropping and Prices in a lot of markets falling even for many of the best assets.

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His friends, lets jump back into the headlines for our last headline. I picked something that was not election related, and it's just kind of a little bit different. Instead of talking about the housing market, I brought a headline that is the ten best companies for career growth because unlike you three, I work full time.

And I think for a lot of people working full time and trying to grow career and buying real state at the same time, great way to build your portfolio. You are a little easier to get. Loans have a little bit high risk tolerance, risk capacity in my mind.

So I wanted to share some of these with you. Let me just ask you any guesses for the company's top ten. And if you want to nominate amazon, amazon yeah they're probably yeah it's not amazon, the best .

companies for career growth.

career growth. So basically, IT says that this is from the american opportunity index, says that measures how well america's largest companies drive economic mobility and positive career outcomes for their employees. And that also .

helps fuel business performance. Having worked for walmer, how proactive they were in pushing people to grow their career and no matter what, what part of the company you wanted to like, i'd never work for a company who push people harder to grow within the cup. I'd be shocked if .

they're on the list. OK James.

you're got to guess and hon, the rapids back. You're in a rip mine. I'm going to go with amazon over microsoft. okay. I feel like so of these tech companies were going to kept out for growth because they had to hit their magor growth. But I do know they take care of their employees and they pay him.

Give that in video.

Oh, okay. So I have to say none of you are correct, at least at the top ten. I think walmart let me look at, I think walmer uh, is probably on the top hundred, but okay.

so amazon on there, but low. I don't think .

amazon because although corporate, i'm sure they make a lot of money. Most of amazon's payroll is probably in warehouses .

and it's number thirty nine.

thirty nine. okay. Well, Henry, I saw this and thought of you because because wilber is not on the top tip. But another another company in your market is that you talk about often.

J is J B.

Hunt is number six. There are a shipping company, right? trucking? yes. yeah. So there are number six. But number one is granger, which i've heard of, because they used to send those like giant. Did you ever get those like giant catalogues .

that they send to your .

house of anger, which is industrial supplies? And and there number one. Number two is costco, which may be really happy, because who doesn't love costco? Costa, like the greatest place on man.

I wish, I wish we could have one here. We can get one here.

Are they banned from markinson? A, there's just not allowed anywhere near walby.

They bought some land and we're gona build one. And that god .

shot cops just like that. You can, you can built that here. So costco, yes, previously known for taking care of their employees. Number three was capital one financial, then number four is the first tech company meta platforms, formally facebook. Then we have service now, which I don't even know what that is.

You just know what that is. service. Now they access .

company IT is yeah cloud based software IT service management, whatever that means.

Just like one of those very generated ah like self force.

Then we had uh j behind coca cola, pepsico. And then he goes to a lot of financial companies like met life, bank of america, key bank. But James, okay, starbucks. Number thirteen, that's in your backyard.

That's in the backyard, that is in backyard. I do have a question on this list though. How is best by on number twenty seven, who goes in there anymore? That is amazing. What growth is going on in my best mean.

I wanted to the best buy this summer and I had the thought as because is the first time i've been in the best buy since high school is been twenty years.

Don't they all look like their under construction no matter what, like that? That's just like .

after shelves are just Better. There's like nothing going go to there. But I was traveling for work and the lighting in my hotel was terrible and they needed to record a podcast and you know, they had any light. So thank you best bye. That's why you're .

on this bet you walmart had the same lights for the fraction, the cost.

right? Homer, you ting for your own good. But I do think I don't know, I thought this was interesting because I do think idol going into a more chAllenging time to find deals, uncertain economic times that doesn't investor, like trying to grow your career and buy real at the same time is a great option. And finding these places that offer really stable careers, awesome way to do IT. If I were me and I was starting my career, I would choose something that was like completely A I proof, or as A I proof as I could, or i'd be working to try and build a, i'd like working at meet up 这个 哪里 financial companies that a good reason like costco， granger is more like service manufacturing. Sure, I will impact them, but it's, I think, a little less likely than like my job and date analysts, which is just going to get .

crushed by AI. And as real investor, this is really great information to find out where the headquarters are for these top one hundred because their bodies there are making more money if they have, the more of an ability to you get .

promoted in these companies. Thanks.

Cathy. I appreciate that. Where is granger located? I don't .

know about to look IT up.

I'm going to do IT founded in chicago. So maybe chicago, all right, chicago, there go are are right. Well, those are stories for you guys, and thank you all so much for paying them.

We talked a lot about the election, talked about mark rates and where they might be. And if you are like me and work four times the places you can grow your career wall, your building, your real state portfolio. Henry, James, Cathy, thank you so much being here.

Thanks, thanks.

and thank you all for listings we will see for another episode of on the market very in.