Investments Outperforming Rentals That Only the Elite Know About
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If you listen to the show often, you know that part of what we do here is analyzed the economy now so we can get a sense of the investing landscape in the future. And for me be, I do this partly because it's fun and weird, and I like this also. I do IT, of course, so I can make sure that my investments and hopefully years stay optimized no matter the economic conditions ahead. And what we of course, I don't have him on the market Christal ball, our guest today comes pretty close today. Ben Miller, the CEO fn rise, breaks down what he thinks will be the most powerful asset classes to invest in over the next five years.

Everyone is dave, and this show is for all the analytical nerds like me out there. And our gust has a lot of creed in that department. The Miller, as I said, as the current CEO of fundraising, are a direct to investor platform with over two point eight billion dollars of equity and management.

But what's cool about bin is that he's worked in real state development and his experience of fundraisers, him investing in commercial real state, in residential, also in debt, and he actually has a whole new asset class that he's been taking on. So i'm really just curious to talk to ban about what he's investing in these days beyond real state and within real estate and why he's doing IT and then has been on the show a couple times before. So if you listen to any of his episodes, you know he is super knowledgeable and really indepth thinker about finance, investing in the economy in general. So let's get into IT.

Biller, welcome back to on the market .

things being here.

you me been a while excited to talk to you specifically about some different asset classes and how you think they might be performing. So I just start with realist, what's what's your outlook for commercial real state over the next few years?

Few years? That's a little easier right now. It's pretty foggy.

The jaws report came out. Inflation came out today. I mean, it's it's definitely foggy myr the moment.

Are you just concerned about financing interest rates or we're still working through some of the supply and multi family? Or what do that sort of mean variables you're tracking right now?

We are debating this at the team of the story community level. Like is this one of the best time investing real state? Or actually, are we Better off investing in private debt in in the debt side of the stack rather than in the equity side? The real see market today are more choppy than it's been a long time.

yeah. And I guess the the question about commercial real state right now is like, are you going to miss the bottom? IT feels like the bottom to me is at least still a couple months away at a minimum. And i'm at least personally I investing some commercial, I say I don't feel a sense of urgency like now is the time to buy, given all the uncertainty out there to me IT just feels like I might be Better to wait.

Yeah and I think the bottom was last year actually like like I think october twenty twenty three was when treasuries hit five percent. I feel like that was actually the bottom. It's getting a little Better since then, but it's yeah the reason of my real state now would be because you're thinking about a long horizon and try with the best time by real state for the next ten years. But if you're thinking more optimistically, shorter term, more of like capture the moment, yeah, I think there's there's other things that, that might be Better .

OK and is one of those things private .

credit on baLance, a private credit and tech, I think garb are pricing Better. So like us, we can do pria cate for a minute of easier to Price, just a little complicated. But like you look at a parent building, you can buy the equity, as you said, for a five and a half cap maybe, and you can be in the debt at like sixty five percent long to value, or maybe seventy five percent to value and be getting a double digit yield, ten, eleven, two percent yield maybe may be higher. And so you say, okay, like, do I like being at a seventy five percent only value at a twelve eleven? Like Better than being in the equity where maybe, maybe I do Better, maybe I do worse is like a certain ly unclear in the desi lot safer.

The debt you you're earning that ten eleven percent, you know, and you have a pretty solid asset to fall back on with that long to value ratio. But I guess you you bet on the real estate if you think cap rattes are going to impress.

like you said, if you make the argument, which we certainly debate internally. So okay, well, they've been oversupply multifamily and over supplies if hit rents, rents or flat rents or soft cap rates are are a lot higher interest rates, tes are a lot higher. Everything is sort of against real estate at the moment.

And if you sort of go more intuitive point of view, like there was a good time to buy things. And so some of those things are going to reverse, like you can feel really confidence supply is going to flip. It's going to be unsupplied within eighteen months, twenty four months, like there's no starts are falling off a Cliff.

So the dou supply, so you can feel good about rank growth in a world. Interest rates stay high, then there be no new construction for for for a long time. So you don't get the benefit interest rate so you will get the benefit in red graph. Yeah so there's you know there's a good argument for IT more tax efficient than than that you have to play with your income yeah .

that makes a lot of sense. I just want to make sure everyone's following that. When we look at multi family, it's pretty easy to forecast where supply is going because IT takes several years to build and you need to file for permits.

And so we've seen this glove of supply that's been going on for years. Everyone's known it's been coming and think that's why people have sort of been a little wary sitting on the side, done a little bit, waiting until things play out, but has been eluded to. We can all see that the pension was going to swiming back in the other direction because once people SaaS gloves spy, interest rates started to go up.

New construction starts from multifamily, at least in most places across the country, of just falling completely flat. There's there's basically nothing historically speaking. And so we're going to be in this environment where husband said there's not going to be a lot of construction of interest strates stay high. And depending on what you think about the residential market, affordability for single family homes probably still going to be pretty difficult for the average person. And so there's going to be at least in IP, in IT be a lot of demand for rental properties and not a lot of supply, which evan said could be driving up rent Prices and in the next couple of years.

right? That's that's the argument for IT. And the arrest against this is, I think, simply like is there something Better that's not that bad, actually, right? So one, there's growth from rents, which I feel like there there's you're going into a really strong market.

If interest rates fall, the value goes up with capris will fall. If interests don't fall, you get IT in rent growth, you get your growth and and growth in strates too far, you get in cabrio compressions. So you have now looking a pretty good kind of like either way, you're in good shape.

And then if we worried about inflation, if worried about like government printing a lot of money, in the old days, you would hold real assets, you would hold commodities, real estate. Now people hold bitcoin. But like, he hold IT off the seat.

reason. And so the argument for phoning an apartment building or really stay would be that, you know, I can be able to get that same Price per score for Price per unit in the future. So I think that's compelling is just at the same time because debark or so distressed that you can lend into the market and get really good, really, really good returns Better than i've seen in almost a decade. I mean, both are great options.

yeah. I mean that that is a very encouraging take. Appreciate that because I could look IT can look pretty dismal right on a husb pretty tough couple of years, right? So IT seems are in a uniquely good time for lending. But what specific sectors does pends research tell him are the most investible will get into that right after the break?

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Byo cell. Hi, very easy to say, but not always so easy to do. For example, high interest rates are hurting the real estate market right now. Demand is dropping and Prices in a lot of markets are falling ing even for any of the best assets. So it's no wonder the funder ized flagship fund plans to go on a buying spray expanding its a billion dollar real estate portfolio over the next few months. You can add the funding SE flagship fund to portfolio in just minutes and with as little as ten dollars by visiting fundraised dot com slash pockets. Fundraised dot com slash pockets carefully considered red, the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the fund rise fog ship fund before investing this and other information can be found in the funds perspective at funding SE 点 com slash flagship。 This is a paid advertisement.

Investors, welcome back to my conversation with ben Miller. Q tells a little bit more about the specific areas of lending .

that interest you so got so fun being across asset classes and across sectors. You really can garner insights you might not other otherwise have, and you can have like Better choices. And so we are owner of about twenty thousand residential units.

We have few millions graph of industrial ah were across the country. And so um that give us a sensitive like what's happening on the ground. But being a lender, you can try to play that knowledge as an owner or as a credit provider.

And one of the great fun things we did the last couple of years was we went start doing asian c securities. So we do two kinds of lending. We do direct lending were mostly apartment buildings as part of the most common execution and done few hundred million dollars of this where somebody he's going to build in a part of building.

They had alone the term sheet from namer, big bank, bank of texas or something, right? And they were gone to get seventy percent or seventy five percent, you know maybe interesting thinking, the rest is me, five or six percent. And now it's like they're going na get fifty five percent like being cut back a lot.

And there's a big hole now in their capital jacket, twenty percent the capable to disappear because the bank paired back they're lending. And so that twenty percent we've been bleeding as like imagining dead prefer equity. And you can get thirteen fourteen percent for that, sometimes sixteen percent.

And you're talking about new construction, high quality prime buildings like that was going to be the lenders last dollar. And we've done that handover. This mean god is the best that's the best things can get out there. You can get as much as you want.

This is not enough good deals.

Yeah I mean, like not that people are starting the construction buildings, but we've done like a few hundred million of IT in last couple of last twenty four months, and that's something that we do. But this is just not enough. And the other thing we've done is, is actually like if you look at the aspect curies market, which is most people probably not that familiar with, it's pretty similar.

All you're doing is lending to an apartment building or portfolio apartment buildings and just at picking where you want to be in the stack. So you can be, you know the triple a, which is like save as part of the stack. You can be in the triple b or unrated, but you can actually get to the same place in the stack like we can be at the medicining place in a asbeck.

Security is just like liquid, actually. So we can sell our peace. And we we started doing that in twenty some of twenty, twenty two.

The markets kind of blew up and we start lending into that market has been great. And then we started going to doing our industrial. And so the aspect church market has been great because interest rates of in high and cable markets have been fractured.

So in general, you can get double digit yellow for debt like risk. That's amazing. And that was not true for a long time when interest rates for zero IT was like path that that's totally .

flipped last year. Years like lending through most of the twenty ten was not that lucas interest just weren't high enough. And now you're talking about two different ways that you can make money in lending.

And I just want to explain for our audience, if you've never heard of the stack refers to capital stack, basically the different areas where capital comes from, particularly in commercial real stay. And usually you kind of visualize this from the bottom is the most senior debt. So that's usually your biggest loan.

And then up from there would be something like a messene loan or bridge debt and then you have different levels of equity. And the reason you think of IT this way is because the people at the bottom, the the biggest dead holders get paid out first. So it's the lowest risk dish in the debt stack where ben is talking about investing is the next step of which is called messaging debt.

And that's basically still relatively the risk because it's debt. But it's a little bit risk here than being, you know, the first position lender on commercial real estate. But that sounds like if we're making four, two or sixty percent, it's worth that little bit of extra risk to be in that position on the stack.

yeah. And this but is a temporary moment, right? There's not that many deals like that. Obviously, you could you get four teen percent or sixteen percent, we would .

just sure.

but is not love of that out there in the world. That's why the good thing about here is the big market is you can find good deals. They're not going to be that high.

They gna be probably like, yes, yes, some leverage you put on IT, but twelve over or something, but is still eleven to are still pretty good and liquid, right? Like so it's which is different. Direct lending, you have to wait for the property to sell to get your money back.

But it's when to securities, ed, like I can turn around and go on a bloomer terminal and sell IT and gold, do something else with the money. So funny, because there's such a separation between real state people and security, security market people. I am like a reality person.

I only started understand seizing market over last couple years. And they don't think about the real state the way we do at all couldn't be more different. I'll give you A A quick story because I like our team. We went down to a miami for the santillan conference, which course has to be. Miami sounds super fun. Yeah, those guys really in on a party know we are like we go in the room and meet with these different trading desks you don't beating with like you know, rbs and on different different banks and he say to us, like what label do you buy and we go .

we talking about you're a huge friday day.

You really you what they will do, you buy and like they like, you know triple a, double a, single b, triple B H, whatever makes sense, like, you know, whatever the Price per square for yield and they're like, what are you talking about? I'm like, I understand.

What do you mean? What do I talking about? Like, you know, everybody's label buyer like that they are minded that to buy a label and like don't they have to look at like praiser square fit and whatever the market risks and stuff? And they like, no, no, no. It's just like they are just they just buy a label and they pricing like compared other labels.

And so like that unlike what how does that make any sense? Like don't they worry about like the risk of the securities ation and stuff? And like, no, they're only thinking about IT is like the way you might think about like spreads and and pricing version treasuries a band, right? Yeah yes. Like it's like they don't think about just nothing like us, nothing like a real thing person .

yeah because they're trusting the label, right? There's just saying like A B you know B S X, you we know the risk of war profile for that label, right?

The label is the risk and that's all they have to know and they can go repo IT and lever IT up. And I don't trust the label.

right? Well.

good for you for sure.

Yeah, but I kind of want to explain just for a second. And I ve never bought here ize debt. So I just correct me from wrong here.

But bds been talking about two different types of debt. There's no direct lending. I'm familiar with that. I do some of that myself basically just need funding a very specific real estate deal, but there's all other side of real al estate debt where loans are package together and sold on security markets like their so sort of like stocks, for example.

This happens in the residential market as well, you know fane may and friday mac buy up residential mortgages and those can get package and solved. And this happens in the commercial real state too. And so buying that he's been buying this because they are good deals right now.

But that sounds like and this is what to leads to my next question, that a lot of people who buy these these securitized assets sounds like they're like hedge funds. They're pension funds, right? They're probably just like a huge buyers or other individuals. You know, just Normal people.

Do they buy the stuff? Oh, no, no. You you know like to buy unless you are a quip AQI B I don't even know what that is a key. So guys Normal that is that we have a million and they never have a qualified purchaser which have five million or net worth. And then A Q I B is one hundred .

million dollar. okay? So that's how you get invited to the yes.

it's actually a hundred million dollars of securities. It's even like here, one hundred million dollars real state. They wouldn't count you one hundred million dollars of like liquid securities banks and insurance companies of the big buyers of the triple is it's like a highly institutional product, but it's as IT right.

Like if you think about a building, there's way more get than there is equity in that building. yeah. So it's like the way the way bigger market IT is, like it's so far away from moral people and it's so weirdly like synthetic here in the moving business.

That's what what they say the makers take us and movers and so their judges, the move, move IT just move IT along like, oh, you actually you like a thousand people bought houses. They need mortgage. That mortgage gets package up and security zing.

So they just move the moving business. They are really care what they're moving. My ology for this is that, like if they're moving and the box is kitchen, they are going to put that box in the kitchen.

then open the box and finding .

whatever once in the box doesn't matter. They are like, my job, move this up. Don't talk me about what's in the box. My jobs not to look inside the box. And so when I was trying to say, like wasn't the box, they're like, what are you talking about .

yeah after we are position, especially because you do direct landing where the whole business is looking in the box, right? Like that's the whole job.

Yes, there's no box, right? There's just like the focus and knives and stuff.

right? Yeah.

you see IT all later that hasn't been packaged package. They security zed IT, that's a packaging. yeah. So IT anyway, this but is so interesting because you can sort to see when the markets voltige like Normally, markets is really efficient, not really no opportunity for people like me.

You were to go up and it's all like maison warehouse, something everything moving really fast through IT. But when something gets messed up like this, a hurricane and everything's back up and supply change messed up. That's when you can go in and make good deals. So the supply chain and in the financing market, which has been missed up in the last couple years, as you get not mess up, the pride won't be much for us to do. But as long as I messed up, there's like good deals to be had.

That's a great way to look at IT. And do you think for just like Normal people who aren't quips, do you think like the direct lending side of commercial real state is still a good option for people looking forward, at least for the next year too?

I think so. You know, there's supplying demand. That's just how things are Priced. And so the supply money has been choked off in real state.

And that means that if you supply money to the sector, it'll be pressed. Well, this is what I mean by sitting and cross different places, different asic class, even different geography. Like sometimes the supply and demand gets destroyed and when he dies things are misPriced.

But Normally the supplying the man is like, you know, boring. It's like just it's what what I would like in twenty, seventeen and or eighteen, right? The plain demand for most of the economy was just know human along and then know the pandemic IT in way. The kind of that hasn't still Normal aliza still lots of weird things out there.

Yeah, it's just a lot of volatility and both sides is cross totally different asset class to your point. Yeah, like a couple years ago, supply of money super high and IT was doing fine. Now they're still loaded to me and for that money. But since the supply has decline so much as well as pointed out, you can charge a premium essentially for supplying that money, whether it's a message dead or if you're you know just providing primary mary is just people pay up .

for IT if you to make a that's also just that's a usually a bigger check. And anyway, so that's like in a way like in a what funding ze what i've been trying to fund rise to say, okay, there's most people invest stacks and bands may be real estate but then only like baby buying single family homes typically um and there's a whole world of investments out there that typically big institutions do alternative assets.

And so it's been trying to figure out ways to democratized access to the best alternative assets. And that was all like really state and private credit and and a capital like there might be another one. But if you will look at the force and five hundred something, it's like it's mostly those people, tech finance people, really people make up most of the four hundred.

That brings me to my next question, which is why ben and furries are investing more in venture capital. We'll get to that after the brake, plus the questions on ben's mind about the future of the economy.

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Insurance are provided through thread bank number of the ic running at a gas that's a problem that's avoided owning a rental property without proper landlord insurance as a that's equally avoidable. Steadily, landor's insurance can help steadily offers fast quotes on property and liability coverage that are Taylor made for the real state investor community, and they can even compare pricing from multiple Carriers for landlords looking to with their different option. You can rest easy knowing your investments are secure with steadily they're available online twenty four seven, and they can start coverage as fast as the next day is a bigger pockets that comes slash landlord insurance to secure your investments with steadily insurance, steadily insurance found by lords or landor's byo cell high, very easy to say, but not always so easy to do.

For example, high interest rates are hurting the real state market right now. Demand is dropping and Prices in a lot of market are falling even for many of the best assets. So it's no wonder the fundraised flagship fund plans to go on a buying spray, expanding its a billion dollar real estate portfolio over the next few months.

You can add the fun rise flagship fund to your portfolio in just minutes and with as little as ten dollars by visiting fundraised dot com slash pockets. Fundraised dot com slash pockets carefully considered the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the fund rise flagship fund before investing. This and other information can be found in the funds perspective at funding SE dog com slash flag. This is a paid advertisement.

Welcome back to on the market. Let's jump back in fn rise. And you have been spearheading a venture fund, which to be honest, I was surprised to hear because I just i've known you for a couple years now and as you know, very knowledgeable about real state credit markets. What inspired you to work, go into the venture space .

so the business cases Normal people can of best capital. Venture capital historically has had one of the best returns. It's not the best return. Ba blaw, so it's really good. okay.

So why don't people invest in IT and you not allowed to? right? This is only for credit investors, institution, and then also really hard to get the good deals.

There is not that many great companies. How many great tech companies are there in the world that are private? Maybe thousand, maybe one hundred.

the established ones not yeah yeah .

how many real state properties are there? You know hundred million? Yeah right there. So many buildings in amErica that could be well, Price could be good.

But like there's only you know one hundred two companies you've want to own, maybe maybe less than than one hundred. So it's a really, really small space. Is typically insider.

And who knows who I mean building software, building a tech company for now twelve years. Yeah and and I spent a lot of venture capital and is where you meet somebody in any sector where you're like glad that persons really posed me away. Most people just there's just like smart people but there they're just telling you money, right? Venture capital has like a cisl to IT. They're more like bankers, then they are like tech founders in reality .

that sense to me.

yeah yeah it's just like their mo is that they like going around taking credit for companies that they invested in. So like investing facebook because I help build facebook. You like, no, you didn't yeah not making .

data a decisions yeah .

they don't try. They don't make things happen.

right?

Yeah I anyway, you any governance are not against that. Just it's just like the credit of creating something from nothing goes to the founding team a anyway. So I just thought we probably get access to good companies and people should be investing in rate companies.

And we went to the c, we created something that didn't exist before, which he was a venture fund anybody can invest in. There has never been a venture fund that people could invest in. There were Normal people, and we made to happen.

And then people say, all, can you get good companies? And we went out and we got all just say, all argue, are the best companies in the world like that? You to go list the top ten best companies in the world? Maybe eighty percent of our fund is the top six or seven.

And there was a lot of luck and some execution. And those companies are mostly A I companies to this point, like who's the best A I company, who's second best A I company, who's third best A I company. And we own all of them. And I is going to be probably the most transformative technology of our lives. Mean, if it's not, I want to be shocked.

And on that, I don't really understand how to be transformative, just that I will be .

very transformative. Yeah, I think you could probably guess and be mostly right actually this point, which is that is gonna a be like a person doing work that people do.

I guess the second order effects or what? So IT confused me, like what does that mean for people? What is where the lives look like? And as the impact like society is hard for me to write my head around.

yeah, yeah. I mean, i'm like an email addressed. I went to college.

My first email dress was in college. And I like, what is this crazy thing? I worked. I worked for a text start up in the late nineties to early two thousands. I work text start up.

And you like, what's the internet gna be like, what's the second order effects of internet, right? Every was so on. No predicting IT, but they were massive.

right? That's sort of how I feel here. It's like we know it's gonna massive. Predicting that is just futile because it's so nation that we just can't guess.

Yeah but you know what can be massive you know you want to be part of IT is probably massive economics available if you can figure out out how to be part of the the best of IT. And so that's what we've been doing. And we and we mean our list of investments are just like, I mean, the funny thing is that like most people hadn't heard of these best companies, you ve heard of some of them.

You've heard data brix. Most people have heard data.

Icks, yeah, i'm a yeah D, B, T, then we also invest D, B.

T for your designs use. IT, yeah yeah D, B.

we used to best in D, B, T. Andrew Andreas, like the top defense A, I company there are serve more than that. Like canada, invest in cana, service in rest and service tied.

And then like a throp c and the other big AI company was still like me. Yeah, yeah, too. yeah. wow.

Congratulations on doing that. I think it's cool on a couple levels. obviously. A, I is super excited. But what he said earlier, just democractic zing this whole asset class that is not available to people because you have to be super wealthy to invest as now be in adventure fund typically and making that available to people, I think is just very aldermore. It's kind of very much in line with what we ve always tried to do. A picture pockets is like trying make something that hard for people wrap their head around and get in on and make IT accessible to Normal people.

So it's super cal yeah and hopefully it's going .

to have good return yeah that even cooler or what IT worked. I do have just one last question for so we ort of turn in the clock here on twenty twenty four. I won't make you make predictions, but do you have any what are your big questions heading into about the economy?

I mean, my question I think the question like everybody's mine who serve in the markets is that there should have been a slowdown from high interest rates. There really hasn't been IT defies through all expectations. Mean, there are some explanations and there's a lot of government spending.

There's a lot there's a lot of integration. Those things drive growth and prevent a downturn. But like know, my question is since they will the economy land with low interest rates, low inflation, high unemployment, like everything is coming together, everything it's like it's like it's a perfect ten. I never seen that .

my life like I was making this like, it's like you like what's what my missing kind of think?

Yes, like all the things you predict, you know, you can predict like I went through nine and saw the stack mark bubble blow up. I went through a wait, went to the pandemic, like it's just nothing in my life. We predict a perfect ten economy and that is blowing my mind. And I just, and if that makes me nervous, that makes me this can this can be possible.

And you feel that like people sentiment is low, like I feel like a lot of people feel that like IT intuitively doesn't really make sense.

yeah. But I mean, like the facts are that has been in the case and IT seems like most of the risk like longer goes on, the less likely IT is unravel.

It's a good to think about that .

because people are are working their way through. I need the problems that existed in two thousand. Two, like when still company being blew up and rail companies were stressed, like time.

Time is great, timeless. People work through problems and people had a lot of time. And so and A I really hasn't hit the economy yet.

The the growth that income AI. So just enormous IT probably doesn't really have the economy for another twenty four months or so, but it's coming. There are so many positive things happening in amErica today.

It's really extraordinary. If you know it's happening other countries that we're so lucky totally. I just feel more nerve when things are going well and when things you're going poorly.

I know that feeling that well IT probably makes you a good steward of other people's bunny, not being overconfident. Well, band, thank you so much has been a great conversation, really enjoys speaking with you today. If you want to learn more about band or any of the talking about that fund rise is doing, we will of course um put the link in the shown notes or you know where to find funding SE I fun rise outcome then thanks for journey us.