Trading the Post-Election Surge 11/11/24
47:27 Share

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday, markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I, C, nbc, Jessica, adding a follow and listen to C, C, business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

I'm scot walter, and you're listening to C N B C S halftime report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at twelve eastern. Listen in. Girl, thanks so much. welcome.

Have time before i'm scot water front center of this of the post election stocks search how long in my last we will ask the investment committee to me for the hour. Joe, turn nova in a station. Amo, so jim, labor ball of rob seattle, en, take you to the markets guys just saying, I mean, stocks at record hides a small capture leading today.

The S, P, S, above six thousand testers, up big, again, up near forty percent since election day. The dollars, the highest since August. The first the bond market, well, it's closed the day for veterans day.

So we're not really paying that much attention to yell even though they've been a considerable story. Joe off in hymir today, they have bump up their S N P target for the end of the year. Once again, IT is the third time they chase.

They go to sixty two hundred ubs s the year and rally has more room to run. Most of the notes last week suggested you ve got a window of opportunity between election day and inauguration day, at least party. See.

I see IT exactly that way. I think we are in the midst of a chase for performance. Jimmy, first.

Well, thank you for your service into all the veterans watching the show. Thank you for your service. Meet women.

Well said.

you're very kind job. And jimmie, you've been on the chase for performance and you've talked about the chase for performance. Congratulations for doing so.

That's exactly what's going on right now. I also think that a lot of money managers have what I call position flexibility because scot had that october flush. That october flush really shook a lot of people out of equity market.

So I see plenty of running away ahead as we move into the end of the year for this rally to continue. I think the rally is broadening significantly into high volatility, high beta area of the market. We haven't seen that to since twenty twenty one. And that doesn't mean on the other side of IT, you get a twenty.

twenty two style market and a stage despite the fact that some say valuations are now stretched, positioning crowded and I don't know about full or not. How do we see things? Do you agree with those who suggest from election day, at least to inauguration day, you've got an opportunity to basically watch your investments in almost any asset class you pick go up?

I agree that I think you want to lean into the U. N. Rally and look, there's a sense of exuberance, exuberance in the market. But I think IT is justified because we're focusing not only on the trade for the next couple of month, but also the regime for the next two years or maybe four years of putting on the makeup of congress and that the regime is one of hopefully less regulation and also tax cuts, extensions. So that's what the markets are focused on.

But also scotch to your point there is the season or so you just don't want to get in front of and you don't want to fight that. You don't want to fight the family, you seasonal and joe is right. There has been some flushing out of positioning and now the volatilities actually quite a bit lower.

That allows people to get back interests that, that allows risk parity funds, for example, to bump up their equity exposure. So I think we do have this nice winter of opportunity, but I will say that even though the long term, like I think, is a positive one, if you think about what the first action is like to be when create president trump takes office, it's not likely to be taxes. It's likely to be terrify. So I do think you have to watch for those .

bumps along the way, the lab. And we are grateful for your service and to have you with us two navy commendation medals for navy achievement medals for the former nuclear submarine engineer in the united state's navy.

You you're always very kind, Scott. Thank you. And I just tell you, IT was a great privilege, a great privilege.

Well, we hon. You every day, but certainly we single you out on this day, especially. Thank you. Please review you in the .

market me to say something that may sounds surprising, everyone, but this has nothing to do with valuation. You're not going to hear me say the markets expensive, cheaper otherwise because it's y're relevant. Joe, what you said is exactly right.

And in in a stage you added to IT. This is a chase to performance. This is foo. This is all of those of femoral things that have absolutely nothing to do with valuation. IT may actually be on with a periphrase what you're saying scotland, in my words, through a darted aboard having settled that. Now let me try to put some sobriety to this.

If you're nervous about valuation, if you're saying I don't really know there are plenty of stocks that are treating with good dividend yells to give you question fairly low multiples, whether as of earnings or books value. So this doesn't mean have to buy the highest pe ratios and just close your eyes. But I just want is not just the sentiment that we're talking about when we turn the calendar year, there is going to be a powerful force of the drawdown of the treasuries treasury general account of the federal reserve, which will increase liquidity.

I've gotta give a hat tip of dan clifton at ratios. He's the one who has been pounding the table on. This is a proven pattern that when we hit the debt ceiling and treasury starts taking its money out of the federal reserve, paying people in companies, and putting in to the commercial banking system, liquidity increases, interest rates go down.

stocks go up. Rob, I mean, you you had turned a bit cautious, I think is fair. How do we are you really assessing that? I mean, how does somebody who was cautious a week ago and maybe for all the right reasons now, sort of resetting expectations on what some have suggested is this opportunity for a really good rally, certainly till inauguration day? What's your view?

You know, we we aren't still tilting towards caution. And the reality of IT is though that hasn't manifest itself in positioning because valuation, sentiment, positioning are all all stretched as we all no on this show show, but you need a catalyst uh to kind of cause that online.

And we haven't seen that you need a weak payable print, you need weak retail sales, you need anything that would cause people to question whether this sort of growth can continue. And you have to appreciate, like everybody else said, they were in a strong seasonal, seasonal period. New interesting that and when markets are up twenty percent at this point in the year, eighty percent of there at time, they're positive in the final two months.

We we are not ignoring that, but we are not chasing performance. The reality is all this bring forward and performance increases in twenty twenty five. And when you look at the biggest risk from my lens, it's an earnings risk because forward earnings guidance is getting cut, yet Prices continue to accelerate higher, which means this all been based on evaluation expansions. Scot, so we're here, but we're waiting to figure out when do we decelerate more, hoping that a lot of the gains we have this year can be pushed in to next year. So we don't brutalize our clients from a tax stamp.

right? That's fine. I want to debate IT because as your talking to is sitting next to me shaking his head, no, no, no. And is a so let the words with the face .

city was making can and that this doesn't come with some fundamental tail wins in an existing secular market. Already a very powerful force surrounding deregulation that's lifting some sectors that previously had been dorman in the market, like industrials, like financial corporate tax rates steady here at twenty one percent does IT go lower, possibly, but at least we have the comfort .

that is at twenty one percent on here.

again, supportive of a lot of areas of the market like financials that have been dorm in the past. So I think that overall environment, we like to use the words animal spirits. I know mixin toli is rightly pointed out they've already existed in this market.

I agree with that, but I think you see the increase in corporate activity. You see a lot of m na. You're gona see a lot of uh R N D out there. And I think that sets us up for what should be a positive year, maybe not to th Epace a t w hich w e're m oving r ight n ow. Agree with you with you on that, rob, but I don't think we want to turn the page into twenty five and expect a negative year for the market, rob?

Yeah, I would say that you're write on deregulation, you write on a less restrictive stance towards ema, you're write on corporate taxes, but that's going to take some time to get initiated terms could happen quickly and potentially be disruptive immigration could happen quickly, which could also disrupt the labor supply.

So I think you have to stay discipline, joe, quality divided, paying names, valuation discipline across the capitalization spectrum makes a ton of sense. And let's remember the lessons from two thousand sixteen. The initial reaction to trust election was very positive, very positive.

You have jumped value stocks cycle ABS IT lasted about two much. You in the moves all faded as soon as seventeen began. And leadership was very different. So isn't we're counting on the other four ninety three, not the mag seven, to deliver significant earnings growth next year. The probability of that has no doubt increased with the change in the .

White house. Agree with you, OK is too much. Is there is there too much uh, euphoria, uh, over this point of view and perspective that now it's just hold on now it's just like run away a look.

I mean, some of IT is you for incentives, but some of is fundamental as even if we didn't have the selection, if I look at the earnings outlook for twenty, twenty six, three hundred and three dollars expected earnings and at some point, the markets are going to start caring about that number.

And by the way, earner's revisions may have been negative if we didn't have the red sweep outcome that we have because we might have had the potential for corporate x action now that's taken off the table. And so that's why we actually may have more certainty in that fundamental earnings outlook. But I will sam sympathetic with rob that I think the first order of business for this trump administration is going to be terrace, is going to be immigration, is going to be terrorists. And that's why if you're not already position, you should be for rotations back into the domestically .

oriented socks. The thing is that you you know yes, if you focus on the the terrace and a immigration issues which made dominate their earliest days, to what degree should you Price in the reusing of the tax cuts?

So across the board first and then you know .

stimulating growth more through the deregulation and the other things that may come down like you don't want to get too negative on the negatives because the positives have a chance to fully outweight those. So is that is that of OK view?

Spot on. And i'll say this in terms of typhus, pull up the semiconductors. Besides in video, look at the semiconductor equipment names, whether it's lam K L A corp.

Applied materials, they've Priced in the potential negative offend, probably not fully they, but they've begun to Price in. They have begun to Price in the effect of the tabs. And by the way, I gotta respond to rob.

Rob, i'll take twenty seventeen any day. IT was one of the lost volatility years. The vicks never got above twenty.

The vx traded to eight, and we had a seventeen plus percent return on the S M. P. seventeen. And totality was a great year.

You also started from an entirely different based gel interest rates for one point eight percent.

I mean, no one knows how high is high because the S N P is a six thousand reading on IT. Doesn't mean that's that's the peak.

But you saying that twenty two times four D P doesn't matter. You're making me sound like a bear. I'm not i'm fully invested.

It's actually iconic. But the reality of IT is is if you're not paying attention to the risk, you're whistle in through the graveyard, buddy. There are risk brewing out there. There is no question to those risk management spect themselves Price sentiment and positioning. And if you're not pay any attention to at least one of those in protecting yourself from a value and standpoint, you're an ignoring one of the central tenants in investing. I'm sorry, there is a couple of things.

First of i'm gonna slam rob for being the voice of of reason, but there's a couple of things they're wildly different than eight years ago. Number one, the feed cutting rates was the exact opposite in two thousand and sixteen. There was no way for them to cut.

They wanted to go higher. Number two, we were at the end of the two thousand and fifteen currency devaluation in china. Now we ve got china stimulating.

That's that's a big difference. Now I know well, you maybe thinking like the a sobs favor the grass hopper in the ant today, on the grass hopper near the ant. Maybe that's a little reversal of characters for us. I'll take that. I take that insult to myself, but I say, I think we got at least four, five more months before you got before the chicken comes.

okay. And the question is where if you think you have that runway, where do you want to lean into the top sector ideas? According to open hammer today financials, industrials and technology financials just had their best week in a year.

Names like goldman up seventeen percent, a record high today. Morgan, standing, a record high today. B, A, A, in jp, m, fifty two week.

Hides today. Jimmy cities, up was. Dup, twelve percent last week. J, P, M, nine and a half percent last week.

IT makes sense, at least to me. For one thing, you're going to have lighter regulation I E, lower costs. How many times have we heard Jamie diamond talk about the compliance costs measured in billions of dollars that his company faces? You're likely to have lower capital requirements.

You are also likely to have one heck of a booming economy. Now we have to deal with inflation in a few months. But what you're going to see in immediately option is deal making IP OS credit quality going up. I mean, there's a lot of reasons to be bullish on financials here. By the way.

valuations are pretty good. Yeah, wells fargo today target goes to eighty four from seventy five B, A, A, reiterates they're by rating. They call of the best risk, best risk reward robby on wealth.

yeah. And I would say we, like the financial sector, were overweight their ultimate beneficiaries of the soft landing and a steeper yield curve, which drive there that interest income higher, Scott. But you know, we're focused on the less fully value names right now at the margin, like jeff rees and coach a wells has done a great job at managing expenses, you know relative to some of their appears. But again, if you can go down capitalization, I think there's more, more bang for your buck.

Well, joe, I mean, maybe this finally is the moment for the regional. Russia obviously is loaded with them and the Russell spending outperformer. And you got a ton of these things since an ati financial, a fifth, third honing ton bank chairs, heartful d financial.

What you think I think the strategy did a wonderful job of the last several quarters, putting the positions in the right place coming into the election, twenty eight percent exposure towards financial asset managers, private equity insurance companies and, yes, regional banks. And as the positions were building in regional banks, I was skeptical myself looking at how the rules were being affected. But now, obviously, with twenty eight percent exposure, is spending fitting us dramatically? You could see what we're doing over the last five days, and I think it's the right place to be in terms of the opportunity, the most powerful catalysts fundamentally that are going to come from this new administration affecting this sector.

private equity. Ubs ince, you mention IT in over one week, Apollo up one thousand nine and a half percent best weeks in october of twenty one did hit a new high. You had a positive call on that today. You did sell K K, R recently, but areas blackdown Carol, the ones we're talking about. Ana stage, your view of this group, if you can include private equity in the tail winds that many see now behind that business, which has been sitting on A, A lot of dry powder and b looking for a lot of realizations, and they may have their opportunity in a less ownerless regulatory environment.

I think it's this sector to look at. And there is this a new sense of optimism when he comes to private equity in particular because you're write, there's not been a whole lot of excess, there has not been a whole lot of deal flow, but that is turning around even before we had this election.

So for example, when you look at deal activity across all the different strategies were on pace to about two trillion dollars of deal volumes this year, which would exceed twenty twenty one. And if you look at the exit activity, you you mention IPO and M N A activity. IT has actually picked up and actually exit through the third quarter of this year are already pacing the full twenty, twenty two and twenty three volumes.

And that's again before the election. So as we have this backdrop of leste regulation, of this regulation, I should say, and as we have the holding period been quite extended for these private equity companies, I think this is going to be a perfect environment for more capital market activity. So that's why we seeing the these stocks straight all time high. And I think further upside is to be hot .

robot about industrial best weeks in the october of twenty two. You ve got a few names in in the group that i've done quite well.

Yes, we owe a lot, but we're kind of underwear this sector. I mean, you're probably talking about rm, which has been a real, real winner for us. But you know, these companies are extraordinary ily expensive. They are trading at at twenty four times forward p, which is actually a premium to the S M P five hundred. And the chAllenges that they are very cyclical business. And usually these higher values mean that forward returns get trimmed, makes us very selective in what we own in using three amazin example, that was really a turnaround story, which which let us to initiate initiate that position. I do think like yeah what .

if what if what's going to occur? What might occur? I mean, have to see nobody really knows, but you have the potential of i've heard some estimates that you know you could double the earnings power of this market, which would then allow the multiple to expand because you'd be justifying IT with strong economic growth. Therefore, what today looks expensive might not exactly look that way tomorrow, so to speak.

IT was a big debate on the investment committee this morning at the firm. Got um I think no doubt this administration does lead the probabilities of earnings delivery and maybe revising forward earning estimates north word up. So those probabilities have changed.

Have they changed dramatically enough to lift stocks in line with where expectations are? You know that stories yet to be written. All of us that are fully investing certainly hope so. And you know those probabilities are higher.

So I think at the margin, you know, if they were absent Price, and I still think you have to pay attention to Price that you could see some some really good earnings delivery next year because the of the ambitions of the administration. I caution that some of this takes a while to manifest itself, sure. But get that .

that's the whole point, right? That's how that's how you know the market tends to work. You guys are in IT every day. You know IT far Better than me, but that's how things work, right? We start to anticipate what's likely to happen.

You think that the markets going up from election data now on anything that happened? No, it's on anticipation of what's likely, if not probable, that to happen. Let me get joe back on industrial because you've got a turn of names here.

Your exposure is twenty two and a half percent so big x on enterprises up forty two percent a week. United rentals up fourteen, eight and twelve. Granger up eleven and a half. All of those that I just rerecord .

nize allies as well. We added united day alliance and dealt there there of double digital as well. Uh, I don't have the degree of of optimism and confidence that you'll see such a fundamental tae in effect from the new which bit administration on industrials themselves, yes, we're Carrying at twenty two percent exposure.

A lot of that is driven off of momentum from the uh from present bid's administration and the inflation reduction act. The effect of that is well, so I don't feel feel the same about industrial that I do about financials. They feel much Better about financials.

And i'm listening to rob and I always pay attention to Price. Price is probably the most important thing that i'm looking at. I think rob and iron basically saying the same thing, robs fully investing.

He likes the good environment. But I think rob tactically sees that we're right on the other side of the calendar for a potential correction. And I wouldn't disagree with that at all. But on the other side of IT.

i'd buy IT. Well, I mean, are we write for a correction in some of the things that have ripped a lot like crypto? Know, I don't know.

Coin base is up yet again, twenty percent. Bitcoins, eighty five thousand. It's been pretty remarkable, but kenji, sega is here with us at at post nine. I mean, we know I think we know have a sense why, but you have bought detail on really why like what the expectations are that the market is. Betting is a game changer for cyp to investing in general.

Scott, so much of this record surge in the crypto market comes down to four promises that truck made to the industry. On day one, he says he'll fire S, C, C, Cherry gary gangs lor. That's very likely.

Why are seeing stocks and wilt in lawsuits with regulator surgeon coin base around twenty percent today, after ending last week, fifty percent higher? Second thing here, the repeal of one twenty one, which is this niche accounting rule from the S. C.

C. That actually stands in the way of banks custody. Ying crypt u, currencies like bitcoin, trump also wants to launch a national crypto to stock pilot, takes sixteen billion dollars worth of bitcoin that the government already holds, and permanently take IT out of supply.

And finally, I talk to several bitcoin miners. Are the ceos from of these companies behind? They are having closed door meetings with. They say that he's promising heavy investment in the rapid build out of energy production and transmission infrastructure across the country. These mining stocks in double digital percentage gains.

I made the point here. People really think this is just the beginning of I I don't necessarily think the reno a renaissance is is the right way to look at IT, but a much more open environment, a much more widely accepted, an adoptable environment, that this could be the first stages of some of those really crazy bullish calls that we've heard from years past that just couldn't materialized for a number of the reasons that you've suggested me go away.

No, exactly. And IT really comes down to save one one. And then another piece of legal tion called fit one. You've got more than two hundred and eighty four crypto lawmakers who comprise the incoming congressional session. And if you pass at twenty one, this is a crypto al market infrastructure bill and tendered with rolling back this rule from the sec that says that banks have to treat bitcoin as a liability on their baLance sheet. Suddenly the doors open to all of these cash room institutions.

Joe, when you got coin base, you ve sit here. Watch IT just come up the best weeks january of twenty three added at the end of october.

Whats up eighty three percent since then. Um the reasoning behind adding that has nothing to do with some wonderful insight to the fundamentals of what was a going to occur. IT was on momentum that was building, I will say coin base, the baLance sheet has had dramatic improvement.

The'd done a great job of doing that. I also think that overall environment in the effect of crypto to since president and trump s election is to a certain extent, is validated IT as a traditional asset class now. And that's something that the industry for years had been looking for. Now I think that's what's occur, but I still think there's people out there that's questioning the fundamental usage of questioning if it's going to be you're going to have transactional transactions on an individual in a corporate basis or not。 But I think IT has validated that as a traditional yeah.

well, I mean, the market is certainly beaten on that. Look at there's coin base up another twenty percent macan, I thank you mean zi CIA here post nine force coming up. We have a committed move to tell you about jim is by the pull back in a stock under pressure today. I'll tell what IT is next.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday, markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I see nbc Jessica adding to follow and listen to see nbc business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

All right. Looking back, would you have a move to tell you about IT? IT is in the farmers space today and it's for a stock is getting hit. Evy is down the day after its experiment to sketch open nia drug failed face to jim levin thought about more that why do you take advantage of this? Pull back to add .

your position. So obviously, this is not good news. IT expected either. But this is what happens when you're in pharmaceutical development. Not every candidate that you put forth is gonna work. Now this particular drug was going to be about one point one billion dollars in sales four years from now. That's on a total revenue base, uh, for a vy of about seventy five billion.

So you can see it's not even quite two percent of what revenues might have been four years out, which is simply way of putting there's a heck of a lot going on at abbey that while this is not good news today at the Price decline, is simply too great for the contribution that this drug otherwise would have made a buying IT in my personal account in the reason for that is that for clients generally, they have enough of IT. I'm willing to get much larger in the position in my own personal account. If IT goes down further, I might possibly add more to IT in client accounts.

But I just think it's a simple case of too much to the downside of trades about fourteen times next year s earnings, three point nine percent dividend yield. I think it's just a great company on sale here. Last thing I would say about this guy is some people may say, well, they just bought this company that was producing this drug a couple of years ago, and they bought IT three point seven billion. So as manager, what they're doing, yes, manager knows what they are doing is I said, sometimes in this business, things go wrong. They have a long track record of making x eline acquisitions.

All right, a matter town this weekend, some due comes up to me and he starts talking about at I was thinking about I was thinking about you because you're a guy to who on on our show who owns that stock. It's going to join the mazda one hundred, replacing dollar three november eighteenth of this year. It's up six hundred percent year to date. No wonder why IT was the topic of conversation, but I was the one stock that was mentioned in the encounter that I had apple love of the year.

topic of conversation in many different places right now, full, full caner. When we first added this name to the strategy, I looked at IT and I was kind of like, there was this company do that's being completely gandy. What does exactly do? So further viewers, what do they do? Okay, they are in the ad tech business.

They are in r so if you are a mobile APP developer, you need them. They have one point four billion users. They have an A I advertising engine.

And what it's doing is it's affecting growth rates for this company that are staggering. Compass is in the sweet spot with all the mobile APP developers, whether it's gaming, you name IT. And with this one point four billion dollar, one point four billion user base, okay, this couple is going to be around for years to cut now.

You see the stock right now, two hundred eighty dollars is down three percent today is being added to the nasdaq. One hundred does IT ultimately get to some of the Price targets that I seen near four hundred dollars, I believe, over the coming years. That does.

But understand if you're buying the stock, it's highly volatile. This is going to be a votile stock over the coming quarters. You have to keep that in mind. So make sure you size the position of corner. You gotta take a small position to C R.

H. Target goes to one four from ninety five more, and that references twenty twenty five earnings in the recent rerating of listed peers across the us and european markets. Jimmy.

you own that one. I mean, this is a pretty cyclical company, right? This is aggregates this as materials for all types of construction, whether at homes, whether it's non residential capex.

Look, we know the housing market has been in recession for quite some time, but lower interest rates on the way should help that should help construction. And in the meantime, all that infrastructure spending and supply chain on showing this is a direct beneficiary of that. IT has good results in the recent past and expect them to continue.

We're debating a lot of retailers these days just because if you talk about joe terf, just don't know what the the cost to buying power is going to be for consumers that the national retail federation talk about that not me. Um raw stores cut today one sixty four IT was at one seventy two. They still like a Morgan stanly, but they lower their estimates based on a weaker sales outlook.

What you think I think everyone likes our stores because they they do a great job with the baLance sheet off Price itself very similar to T J. X. But I had a very strong rally during the summer when we believe that the economy was cooling.

Now on the other of that, we've got an indication that maybe the economy is not cooling as much as we anticipated. And to your point, you're introducing the possibility of type. So a lot of these off Price names are beginning to struggle.

Ross store is one of them. T, G, X, by the way, is an outperformer in off Price. So I I would own that one more than I would own some of the others roster has what I would call right now broken momentum.

okay. A dobe reiterated overweight at barkless today. They have positive takeaway. They say for management meetings, they don't think growth accelerate and don't think the stock needs acceleration to work at the valuation it's currently trading. What do you think about that, rob?

Definitely been a tough perform. Its name you have to be patient with, but we ultimately view this as a double digital outer with healthy fundamental, Scott. Um they're seeing slower progress on the monitise ation of their AI with a powerful platform.

It's a showing me story given the competitive pressures from OpenAI and other. So listen, we own IT. We're down on IT this year, but I do think it's something you can own at these levels for sure right?

The headlines now bird Scott, a military judge.

has postponed the guilty plea hearing of the accused mastermind of the nine eleven attacks and his two coconut ATS so prosecutors can continue the effort to nowa fy the plea deal. The ruling comes days after the judge rejected defense secretary austen's decision to resin them. If the deal goes through, the three would receive life sentences instead of the death penalty with content.

Supreme court is hearing oral arguments today on whether a precision l war era abortion ban can still enforced. The eighteen forty nine law states a person who kills the feast with the exception of saving a mother's life, is guilty of manslaughter. The high court is controlled by liberal justices, suggesting abortion rights advocate stand a good chance.

A prevAiling and motel is facing backlash after mistakenly printing the address of an adult content site on the packaging of their doll, supporting the new film wicked from nbc universal, our sister company. The actual site was meant to bring readers to promotional material about the movie, mattel said. Is deeply regrets the unfortunate error and advice parents to obscure or throw out the packaging you want to go to. Wicked movie dot com and the movie premiering the eleven days Scott earth .

thanks bird comes coming up. The trump trades impact on the etf world bop zonis following that money force today and etf edge, which is next.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc Jessica, adding a follow and listen to C, N, B, C. Business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Kay, walk back some breaking news off kate ders regarding to Polly, what do we learn there .

is got to pully announcing this afternoon that's got boat right will be taking over as its new CEO reminder he was named interm CEO in August and prior to that served as chief Operating officer for the company, reporting directly to to police former CEO brian nichole since twenty seventeen to Polly saying boltay has been a driving force for improving the company's overall guest experience and in addition to contributing to the strategy and growth of the business, LED the integration of new technology really keep part of the experience into restaurants, built a strong culture alive to the organza values, and achieved industry leading retention.

Radioing impressive outcomes and improvements are in input. You can see the socks is just slightly lower on the news three year, though up over sixty percent in a statement quickly. Boat rates that i'm passionate about our menu and energized by our people and believe that I, along with our esteemed bench of tenured leaders, will deliver on our priorities and achieve our long term growth goals. No big surprise here. Many analysts had forecasts that he would likely wind up in the role after being chosen his interm CEO, but has been there for quite some time in its things, like this is a steady ship for tribally.

Moving ahead back over you guys. Kate, rod, appreciate. Thank you, joe.

You, you on the stock. Now we'll see if mr. Boat, right, can do what ickle did.

If you look at the three year that kate was referencing, up sixty percent, let's see what happens. Now, I know. What do you think you want to this from the beginning?

I anted this in August when he was named into m sea, or I talked about the need to give him the permanent title. And yes, he's been there with with bright nickel since twenty seventeen. Staff made a great purchase here in shape.

I think the only chAllenge for tripoli is the reawakening right now in starbuck, because IT gives you an alternative and the quick serve space. And obviously shake jack is performing well. Also, starbuck chart looks phenomenon a right now. I just wonder if you see triple kind of continues to move sideways. Es, if you see a lot of people move out .

to people late at the starboard to bop. Zon now got today's etf edge forest, I bub.

See IT. With the elections over the etf world is buzzing about how the truck residency will impact the etf business, how our hopes for tax cuts, less regulations, more tabs impacting what investors will be buying in two thousand and twenty five. Let's talk with map bar li.

He's head of amErica etf, researched state street global devices and of course, owner of the spider etf business that I call you the best of etf flows. You see everything you tell me. You have seen some big moves in the last few days. Tell me what they are yeah. I mean.

just that one day after the election, etf in the us. Took in over twenty two billion dollars, which is the largest amount of flows one day after election ever. Just shadow the prior prior record in twenty twenty when there is over five billion of influx.

So just a massive influx of capital into the etf marketplace. Some of the beneficiaries are just U. S. Equity exposure overall. They took in seventeen billion dollars on that day.

Within that small caps was more domestically oriented exposure that could benefit from the reassuring and protection of U. S. Manufacturing that we've seen out there from the the campaign campaign trail.

But then also financial bank stocks uniquely benefit. We saw over two billion of inflows into bank etf because you have those policies that may be reflationary, but also the potential for lesser regulation. So just a significant capital that was deployed into the equity exposure in the etf marketplace.

I want to go back to that bank. One, because you manage story, manages the spider regional bank to have that the K R E. And you message me last wednesday that the K R E had inflows that were thirty six percent of the funds assets in a single day.

I've never seen that. That's gotto be a record. What what is this telling you about what investors are thinking here?

I mean, IT definitely was a record that was one point eight billion went into the etf and that on that day, the fund itself was up thirteen percent, which was a seven standard deviation move over the last trAiling one year and saw a significant amount of optimism towards the marketplace because of the policies, but also some of the foundations that banks are standing on. You have support of earnings growth, you have a resilient consumer that are spying additional loan growth, and now you have the potential for policies that will lead to lesser uh, restraint or lesser a owners rules towards bank baLanced and that could improve return on invested capital.

right? So I want to go to crypto. You also mention me we went back and forth and emails so less we big inflows in the cypher etf.

State street runs the galaxy digital tf deco. You launched that in september. But IT seems like the big winner here is category in her archive's etf. She's been called a trump proxy SHE hope she's got tesla SHE owns coin base and robot od. Top five, there is a two and half ier high but catchy, seen massive outflows in the last two years. So my question is, can people like cat thy wood associated with speculative tech start attracting inflows again? Is this an opportunity for to make a comeback?

I think you're taking a larger picture or a larger view of this picture. When we think about crypto and cypher currencies in the digital set space, I think there is a good mixture of winners and losers. And I think a lot of the headlines are going to the spot market.

But one of things that everyone who would appreciate is that the ecri pto industry is going to be met with the administration that is more cypher friendly, that's going to lead to lesser regulation or lesser hurdles that should lead to greater adoption of crypto currencies within our financial institution. So I think in this space, you know, whoever the manager is having that active view, this would the cipher wear regulatory headwinds and tailwind might be as this industry continues to mature and become a larger part of the financial marketplace. I think this is something that actually be on everyone's rather I know some of the spot market gets a lot of the headlines, but there's a lot of potential opportunity to eath the surface, particularly in the ecosystem supporting overall digital assets.

O we're onna have a lot more coming up on trump etf trades as we like to call them, that's coming up on etf h one ten P M. The eastern time matt will be joined by john doby. He's the founder and CEO of a storia portfolio advisors that E T, edged that cbc com got back to you.

Okay, appreciate. Thank you. Bob pizon, I up next. We have to set up.

Time for the set up. Now earnings this week on holding, that's tomorrow before the belt fifty two week today, jim laban saw you own that.

Definitely a pricy stock that I always start because it's a little bit outside of my comfort zone in terms of valuation. However, it's growing like a weed. People love the shoes, love the apparent.

They're growing in their geography. They're growing in the number of skill that they're putting out there. I think this is going to be in an excEllent holding for the next year.

Rob season home deepo heads tomorrow before the bell.

yeah. I think we're looking for is the worst behind us from a home improvement spending standpoint in where lower rates are. The prospect of lower rates in the future start to encourage investors to invest in home deeper due to this. I also think you're going to see a slide up taking sales trends as extreme weather has LED this some ingram tal consumer spending.

Are we in the stage of which view on housing? I mean, we're going to be in an environment potentially of higher rates for a while now, in part because of the agenda that's coming with the new administration. You know mortgage rates going to be probably more elevator. I think right now, they're are right up against seven percent again. What's the impact on the housing space?

That's right. I don't think the recovery in housing deal because exactly we just mention, and I do think that the ten years probably stuck in a broad range somewhere between four percent or four point three percent because we ve got budget deficits to worry about. We got stronger growth unless right cuts to worry about.

So we may be working with elevated portraits for quite sometime. The good news of for housing and a lot of consumers have built up a lot of home equity, uh in in their home so they might be able to leverage that to help home deepo. But I do I do want to point out broadly, if you look at excell life, for example, that consumer, this question you T F is doing great.

And I think that's the road after the mars ord.

This one has a very high bar to exceed at an all time high, very rich valuation, delivered nineteen percent revenue growth. The last two quality you need see revenue growth in the twenty years. Free cash loves building as well. Again.

you need to that cell farmer, jim disney thursday before the bell.

yeah. And actually a little bit of a bit to disney last weeks. Now we know that had a pretty rough year, got up to one twenty three nouns s back to a hundred. I think on evaluation basis, the stock is definitely hold. You could probably add to IT here when things that you're looking for in the earnings release are how's the streaming business going? Theme parks, which were a problem earlier, is that earlier in the year, that is, are they were covering there's lot of things that can go right here and I don't think are pressed into the star.

My tally with his midday word is right after this quick break.

All right. Senior markets commentator Michael sana toy is here with this post. Now you're take a look today as to whether we're just got the same old bold market we've been in or if we've got a bit of a makeover now because of the election.

What you think I think you can say the same old ball market, but you can say that more tour has been added to a lot of existing themes that we've talked about for months. Market showed you that, first of all, we come into this with two year board market valuations on the elevated side, corporate credit spreads at record tites. In other words, IT was not a market that said, we really need a lot of help, but we're getting to help anyway.

And so you see is the way it's manifesting interesting. It's mostly rotational know even today, source of funds is the mega cap that one hundred names it's making its way into the more cynical part of the market. Then you have the mean of verse comes alive and you have game stop today at five percent on double average, five and four, no reason whatsoever except that there's a certain zed pool of money that's now actively moving in that direction.

The sequent think of policy moves matters a lot, but not today, right? I mean, for the time being, what you have in front of you is what IT is, which is know a little bit of a joint of extra risk appetite on an already healthy market that might just buy you a little bit of benefit of the doubt for a lot of the trends that we've been looking at. I don't think that the constraint that might come from inflation or treasury els of the dollar that everybodys been talking about are really here and now that .

maybe down the road course. So the russels up one two percent today. Nobody y's focused on any of those issues while the getting is good.

And I mean, even those levels where yields are where the dollar. And I mean, that's kind of you're gonna be able to, I think, be a little forgiving of that for a while.

but we'll do some finals after this.

Really like easter clothes in bail out of part of gasandes start caser denise and step is gonna in us today. So i'll hope you join us in a couple hours. We'll take to do the final stretch with this market goes today of the student finals. Robert c. Aching, you're up first.

Crm, so he's got back. No, I see you. And .

okay. C, R, M, IT was so nice, we said IT, twice. No explanation needed, apparently.

right? IT was waiting for the air pot. It's all good. Farmer jim, a lucky y. Martin.

as much as I hate to say this, the world is still going to be a violent place. I know our incoming president has the noble goals of uh, curtAiling a lot of military activity overseas. I'm not sure it's really .

in his power OK and a stage smaller caps.

It's been hard to have conviction in smaller caps until now. But if you look at where they are, it's been in three years range. But I think we're breaking out of that domestic orientations, focus on financials, focus on RAID relief. Uh, it's not too late at two .

small caps you grew that you like that call. So have you going to get a broadly in the mark? I mean, this might finally be the moments .

of nine percent. I agree with IT. Okay.

after what mean, you know.

going to come to me .

on that quick? I agree with that.

I've been pounding the table from OK. great. thanks.

Best performing financial uh, stock is interactive brokers for us OK in the etf. I think he continues the trading environment .

enabling i'll see you on the closing. The exchange begins right now. You've been listening to see nbc halftime report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at twelve stern only on cnbc.

All opinions expressed by the halftime report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect to the opinions of C N B, C N B C universal, their parent company or affiliate, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an impediment. Such opinions are raised upon information the halftime report participants consider reliable, neither cnbc nor its syphilis ates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness, accuracy and IT should not be relied upon as such view the full half time report disclaimer, please visit the N B C dot com forward lash halftime report disclaim .

er C N B C has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday markets money and more from wall street to main street m cnbc, Jessica and follow and listen to see nbc business news updates wherever you .

get your podcasts.