The State of Play for Stocks 11/1/24
44:26 Share

In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat and it's about the bottom line. Live from the new. York, washington votes bc, i'm scot Walker .

and you're listening to C, N, B, C, halftime report, the podcast, the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at twelve eastern. Listen in.

Our car. Thanks so much. Welcome to the half time report.

I'm Scott walter, front and center of this. Out of the state of play for stocks. The mega caps are now out of the way. The election in the fed are looming large.

We'll strategize with the investment committee on this friday, joining me for the hour of Brown bring talking to Stephen White and jim levy and thought we will check the markets. We got a really nice day shaping up. The jobs report was an obvious miss a, you knew IT was going to be noisy because the boeing striking and the storms unemployment rate stays the same.

That's that's gna snap a seven week windbreak, because we have had that reaction yesterday to met microsoft, turned you first. Me, what did we learn this week? Do you think that shapes the road ahead for stocks? This have two months left in this great year for returns.

Well, what we have learned so far is that earnings is OK. Stop blowing anybody away. So we've got you.

We've got to take the strength that we have and continued to play in those names that strong. So yeah, we saw all like three percent cell off in in meta, microsoft. Who cares given where those stacks have come from, who cares? That's nothing.

What we did see there's that there's continued strength. There's accelerating strength in certain parts of their business. And the AI theme is not just your pup and circumstances.

It's real. You're spending and you've got to a pay attention to and be judicious where you invest that proactive from IT. But of course, to be about what happened in the election and the aftermath.

we throw all that in windows. I mean, that's why it's v it's obviously difficult to try and game out the next year, five to ten days, which to wait, see. But brin, let's deal with what we have, right? You play the cards that are in the hands you you got. What did we learn? Do you think this week that shapes your view about what these last couple months could hold?

I think for the hyper scales, we learned that the cloud business, the pie is getting bigger. So right? So I mean, google definitely doing a great job.

They're finally profitable. So you know, I was skeptical of google definite wrong about that. They're growing. Ads is growing as is growing, but growing at different rates so that overall pie growing. I think we also learned I loved sight in adella said.

He said, you know, we obviously have data center or constraints, but hardware is not keeping up with demand. And some to me, to really like echo, what Steve said, I think this full A I nara of the data centers really place into the deals, the invidia S S, the vertige you can have that whole ecosystem. I still feel like it's gonna be a multi year spent here from what of all of them said this week.

josh. right? I mean, if anything, maybe if nothing else, we just underscored this week the investment community, right? These CEO of these mega cap tech companies just underscored why there's been such excitement over A I, why these trades have, for the most part, worked so well and why they continue to draw all the oxygen in the room.

Yeah, I think I think I I found myself agreeing with brin and vice, but I want to add another wrinkle to the conversation. I want to think a little bit about where the poc is going. So amazon just said they're going to make a seventy five billion dollar total capex s expand ditch for twenty twenty four and plans for, quote, more in twenty twenty five.

The more is interesting, I think, where the pop is going is this year was more like a sandbox. Everybody announced huge plans and how they would spend, and they weren't huge questions yet about or I at least not so granular or on a quarterly basis. I think that's what changes in twenty twenty five.

I think we're going to see a separation of the hyper scales and the big tech companies that can actually put up some results and the ones that are still in the sandbox. So the good news were not there yet. You look at the results of the alphabet.

So this is a name i'm in. I trimmed a little bit ahead of the earnings. IT had a huge pop after the earnings.

Congrats the voice he nail that this set up was perfect for that. But I want you to look at the the five days the week on alphabet because it's given back the entire pop. Its down ten points from right after they reported earnings.

And I think there's still a lot of scepticism that the money that they are spending is gonna come back to shareholders in a tangible way. Are they really gonna grow because they are or they just going accounting lize the existing search business and replaced one thing with another. So I think it's gonna a get tougher as we get into twenty five, not just for alphabet but for all of these names.

IT is nice to see amazon printer an all time high here. This was a name that was seven percent below that all time high and that where we're making a fresh record. IT is nice to hear all these spending plans. I just think IT gets harder, not easier, as we start to ask these companies, okay, so you spent all this money, we said, okay, what you got yeah .

you know, Jimmy, it's not like these stocks more recently had been trading like a monolith anymore anyway. But maybe this is the week that puts the imation point on the fact that you're gonna have these stocks diverging from one another in the in the months ahead because their businesses are different, their investments towards certain things are different. Most importantly, the return on the way they're investing is different. And we learned that I think this week.

that's exactly what I believe, Scott. I mean, you put IT very well within the mag seven. I to use your words, I don't think it's a monoliths. Think there are some that will be bigger winners than others. I don't think any of them are terrible stocks.

But you in terms of where the biggest winner probably is likely to be, it's likely to be in video, when we talk about all these cat bex plans, I don't care whether is meter or amazon, the bulk of that is going to in video. However, to your comment, which I strongly agree with, that is not a monolithic. Don't think anything in this market is a monolithic.

Don't think there's any sector that you can look at and say I just want to go in on the sector. And I can use countless examples here. You can look at the automotive industry, the divergence between ford and gm.

You can look at the airline industry, the divergence between a jeep o and a delta. You can look at retail and the divergence between a costco and a target. I could go on and on.

I like this. I like this. This is a stock pickers market. Now there will be mistakes. You, I, Steve, josh prin. We may choose a stock that doesn't do as well as others, but is highly likely that most of our picks are likely to be right. That's what stock pickers do.

Let's get down into amazon a little bit. But really crushed that I think is is fair to say. Candy Jesse called investing in A I A quote once in a lifetime opportunity, said they're aggressively pursue that, not the way that our kate rooney put.

This was just perfect. And SHE joins us now to which you describe this as they really thread the needle. Explain to us why that was your take away?

Yes, got to what that was really this delicate baLance crams on. They were able to show an ability to be hugely profitable wall the same time. Still, investment and growth in AWS, as you guys have been talking about, margin expansion and Better Operating profits were one bright, but especially in amazon's retail business, and the overall Operating income grew one hundred and twenty nine percent over year.

That really does highlight some of the cost cutting efforts paying off. And then the ad business two was wrong, that all important cloud business. So AWS grew nineteen percent every year with thirty eight percent margins.

So really bullish commentary on the call as well. You had CEO anji saying that AI is now a multi I billion dollar Robert business, growing triple digital percentages eur a. He called IT an unusually large, maybe once in a lifetime opportunity, quote, shareholders will feel good.

He says the long term that we are aggressively pursuing IT, a big part of that aggressive strategy, capex. So for the year, he says it's going to be run seventy five billion dollars and suspects that they will spend even more than that next year. Sa .

kate, thank you for that. Um just perfectly set up because josh, when kate says that you know what, Jessie told investors that they're going to feel great about IT in the future. You feel great about IT today that even though their capex surge is eighty one percent, they're able to show return on that investment. And whatever way they've been able to do what kate said, thread the needle. IT seems to be .

working well. Yeah, here's a textbook example. Amazon did a dollar forty three in earnings per share on one hundred fifty eight point nine billion in revenue.

They beat the revenue number by one percent. They beat the earnings per share number by twenty five percent. There here you go.

That's an example of the company pulling the levers that IT has, I assume, utilizing A I not just on behalf of clients but internally to improve profitability. And they don't have to grow top line by twenty percent the way they used to. It's unnecessary because they're able to generate that, that return on investment, the higher profitability.

And if you are a shareholder in this company, your expectations should not be twenty, thirty, forty percent. Top line girls is just unrealistic and given the scale of this thing. So I like that message and I think it's good and not look good to stock. It's good enough for investors today.

Yeah clearly White, right? I mean, trust today goes to a street high two seventy. The stocks at two hundred, that's call two hundred, right? They go to two seventy that stride high.

J, P, M, goes to two fifty, fifty, two, fifty, two wed bush, two fifty. Most the targets around there. But truth doesn't afraid to go out on a limit and suggest I can go even higher than that. And they say that management are in the right to invest aggressively, which is we just said, as kate did and we reiterated to you, Jessie made no apologies what they bend nor shooting .

and we had that this conversation with met A A couple of quarters ago where we said or I said there, investing in their future, which is why I size up the position, where's the girls going to come from? And what they are doing is where whether it's amazon or matter or microsoft to google, they're continuing to reinforce that mode. Will name other companies that can possibly make that size investment, right?

So it's unusual. I don't like getting the firm capex cycles I waiting to be done so I can bear the fruit of IT. But the return on the AI investment is so immediately you don't want to take that strategy.

Now what I say is and go back to jims conversation on comments on in video, you want to go to the tool belt also. And the tool belt, to me doesn't really include OpenAI. It's your private, but the valuation.

So just so crazy, we don't know who's going to win there, you know, because there are so many others there. So look at things like vert, right? That's part of the two belt showed the extent you build more data scenes, which you have to, you need more cooling works.

Take a look at taiwan's semi that's doubling down on who benefits, yes. And video, right? But everybody building their own chips, all the chips, taiwan's making blue from video. So there are plenty ways to play IT that aren't nose bleeds valuations in addition to the main cap stock.

One of your takeaway this week was you added to meta.

correct? yeah.

Which was one of your core positions? yes. So you saw enough for at least saw a sell off attractive enough that you wanted to add to the stock tells more.

yeah. So so I enter trade position to IT as I do, as I do with netlist, meta and others when they sell off. IT wasn't as biggest sell off as I would have liked. So IT wasn't a super add to IT, and i'll be there for a little while. But I thought the quarters extraordinary.

I mean, when you take a look at all the shots, justifiably in terms their business over the years and how zak berg has learned from them to come through and manage even Better than he had before. So he's truly not just a visionary, but he's truly just a great Operator. So I love the fact they're spending on A I I love the fact that all their business pretty much are moving high, will continue to be and just learned to google for second dressing jaws comments.

I don't disagree. I mean, I was, to the point at the stop, didn't get some beliefs and that none only held that high but moved up tired. But what what I say is that I have faith that the money they're spending is not just defensive, but it's gonna offender.

We truly don't know what the business use cases are for A I and but they will find out for you and I find out. So that's why i'm glad they're spending. I still think train where IT is below market multiple, that it's pretty .

compelling values. Let's t to apple, which was OK, right? I mean, sales hit a record services miss didn't learn that much about AI demand.

Maybe that's the greatest take away. C kovel, obviously, following that, he was kopetz. O spoke to cook.

Is is that the right take away? Maybe the market today gives them a breakfast ball. So I speak from from a golf of analogy. We know what's come in still. So just it's all right if you hit one in the in the trees.

That's exactly right, Scott. So and it's also because tim cook didn't really tell investors what they wanted to hear on the call. Basically, they wanted to hear apple intelligence driving increased iphone cells, and we just don't know if that's true yet.

I catch up with ten coke yesterday, and he gave me some nuggets ts of info, at least hinting at early momentum for apple intelligence and the iphone sixteen. Here, my two main take away from that conversation. First, he told the several days of iphone sixteen cells in the quarter were Better than the iphone fifteen cells for that same year ago or same period year ago, that is.

And secondly, he told me more people have updated to IOS eighteen. That one. That's the first software update that came up monday with apple intelligence than the same version a year ago.

Basically implied that shows excitement around apple intelligence ence. He also told me they're tracking how many people after that upgrade actually switch on IT apple intelligence, but so far won't be disclosed ging those numbers. Another interesting bit here.

Services, like you said, revenue did miss estimates, but it's still group by double digit itt percentage points. And apple now says it's a hundred billion dollar annual run, right? Look at that chart, right?

Theirs got no. Wow, Steve, thank you very much for that set up force as I go to bring now. I think we've learned throughout the years spring that tim cook and apple, they get the benefit of the doubt.

They have the apple intelligence, which is still in its licence stages. We haven't even snipped the upgrade cycle yet that we still believe is going to going to come. If tim cook is talking about the excitement around apple intelligence, okay, all right, let's see IT, let's see IT.

let's see IT, right? And so I think that I mean, i've been saying I think a lot of us on the panel that this doesn't seem like it's a super cycle to mean the super cycle early days twenty ten, twenty eleven, twenty twelve. Um I think ultimately, people will upgrade to the sixteen in the us.

And so is this apple intelligence in china? I don't think so that an indonesia, I don't think so. And so it's like us is what forty five percent of their business, they have a big business overseas.

And so really, you would want to see over time this consistency globally of the upgrade. And I think they're going to continue to sell very well, but I think this stock will just be a market performer. I do think this is the one company of all the mega that we talk about that it's aix recently for the consumer.

And how much and how quickly are we going to adopt the sixteen pro or that, that we don't necessary need to like upgrade our pictures. What have you microsoft, oodle and amazon are doing enterprise. And so to me, this is a really play on the consumer, and we'll see how that upgrade cycle actually goes over .

the next couple of quarters. Yeah, Jimmy. Range bound is what Morgan stanly says shares are likely do in the near term. They think downsides limited. Eric would bring, by the way, the Morgan stanly analysts on apple is going to join me later today on closing bell so will get into IT a little bit deeper. But there's the stock down one and two thirty percent burstein says range bound ubs talks about demand being muted for the iphone as does barkless they use the same word key bank suggest expectation should reset lower.

What's your view here? I'll go with range bound as well. I do own the stock. I own IT well below the market weight, which is my way of saying that I think it'll do fine.

I think it'll go with the market, which you know maybe with where the market has been already this year is going to be ranged bound as well. But haven't said that. Look, all of these stocks, just about all of them are treating at a roughly low thirties multiple going forward.

And you have to look against the growth rate as to whether that multiple is justified or not. And we talked about amazon a second ago. We've got a mid twent earnings per share growth going forward.

Projected apples, on the other hand, is around twelve percent. So which one do I want to own? I want to own the same one at the same valuation that has the higher growth rate.

I can't see any reason that apple will break out of that twelve to thirteen percent growth. Yes, we understand apple intelligence but not leading to the super cycle upgrade. The one thing.

well, at least not yes, I I hear you. But so early it's so early in the rolled out of our intelligence that would not necessarily be a real compelling reason that I would as the rollout got more delayed. So too then probably does the upgrade cycle, but there is always an upgrade cycle for for this product. There is because the installed base being more powerful than arguably any other consumer product company in the history of .

the world that the twelve to thirteen percent growth rate is there's always an upgrade cycle, the super cycle, if that happens and maybe IT will may be IT won't, but IT hasn't happened yet. It's not project IT happen in the near term is what would take that growth rate higher. I don't see that happening anytime soon, which is why i'm not big in the stock. There is one huge saving Grace for the stock, which is the amount of shares that they buy back. Otherwise, I don't think IT would deserve to be in the authorities .

for a forward multiple ways.

It's not the growth rate that apple should trade off over, and it's not what IT does trade off the brand. It's got their revenue stream is repeatable, right? It's happened in every year.

That's true cloud also, but I don't think you have to own IT because it's going to be ranged about for a long time. I do believe and I do only a very small positions. And also now I do think the upgrade cycle will happen.

But I to think about a lot, one time I thought was going to be like unbelieved, i'm going to blow doors off. But you know each of their products that they have there, keys off and other products. So IT searches at their own search engine, it's going to be google or pick another one.

So what are you actually going to be able to do with your iphone? That's really gonna blow you away. It's going to make more efficient to use. They do somethings, but it's .

only .

one from the phone. I mean, somewhere. I mean, so what exactly my point, what is to well .

is to because you want to drive new phone purchases though through these .

whatever innovation that I don't apple intelligence is gona bring out, I don't know where the expectations are that it's gonna some sort of overwhelmingly transformational .

technology that's not completely change.

You know your data day exist.

You're making my case. For me, that's the case. okay? The case is it's not to do all that much for you.

So why what I do? Anyone would not to do enough. It's not going to do enough. It's not to do any more than than these camera enhancement. So that could be the same cycle we've seen.

Why do you want to stock? We have this conversation. I feel like every every three to five years.

just Better in cash. It's a cash proxy form. Is burning .

cash wise? I mean, just sorry. I have steep .

apologies.

was waiting .

for series.

Apple is not. Apple is, apple is not. Apple is not flawless. And a apple makes mistakes, and apple tries to correct those mistakes sometimes in hindi, the the vision pro is a really great example of the fallibility of the company.

But I do have to say, I think apple has earned the benefit of the doubt that we might not be blown away by version one point o of anything. But by the time they get to two, three and four, these things become more than just luxury gadgets. They become stables in our lives, the air part in the world, examples.

they have never been the first and anything you've been the best.

No, it's not the goal. And but I want to say something I think even even more important to this discussion, which is apple is awaiting safety and privacy relative to all other companies that are in this huge rush to be first, to be fastest. One point, one point five, two point of apples going in the opposite direction.

They're going to rolled out implementing things very slowly, test them, see how they go, and then incrementally rule out more. They've said IT. And they have always been the most trusted brand when IT comes to safety, that is, apples entire raison detra when they innovate.

So this idea that they are leave they're behind IT just flies in the base of the last twenty five years. We know they don't want to be first, and we also know they don't want to have a disaster on their hands. So conversational theory is going to be the thing, mr.

Wise, that makes you want to update ate your phone. And then after that, sorry, as A I agent, imagine being able to tell the AI to go buy your tickets for the next game tonight, make new reservation, let my wife know i'll be fifteen minutes late and that's what's coming. It's not coming tomorrow, but I think people will upgrade when IT arrives.

I can do some of those things now, by the way, they series text, learn. And teller, be fifty minutes. S ly.

imagine a two way and often text.

And she's going to say, why is going to be so early? He's usually .

before we, before we take our our first break. I do want to get to a move from josh and you sold paypal. Can you tell us why? Most importantly, tell our viewers why .

I bought IT seventy. I saw that eighty three on tuesday when the earnings came out. I got out of IT basically because I thought the trade had been made.

I thought the earnings report was good, not great, and the stock had got up a lot. So if you get into something on technicals with a specific catalyst, I think you've got to honor the discipline. I don't do a ton of trading typically, but that one was a trade in the trade work.

stocks down to three percent. We'll follow IT, obviously, and we do have another move from josh. It's a new by we will .

detail IT next.

Are you following the half time report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting APP.

Follow the half time pocket now. In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat and it's about the bottom line from the new york exchange, washington money, your votes, november abc.

Well, come back. I told you josh had another new move. In fact, he does. IT is a buy, and IT is mr. Brown .

Baker. Hugh ticker, B, K, R. This is one of the best performing stocks in a sector that's performed terribly this year.

And this one popped up on our list of the best talks in the market on october, think thirteen and or seventeen th. And it's stuck around over the last couple of weeks and it's actually been building in strength. So basically, this is one of only ten positive stocks this year in the S M P.

Energy sector. Um it's the eighth best performer in the group, up about ten percent year to date. They're expecting to grow earnings forty four percent over over the year into the third highest earnings growth rate out of the sector.

Probably why it's out performing. I think what's really interesting here is that thirty eight, thirty nine dollar level. If you take a look at a five year chart, you can see clearly that was an area where the stock struggled a couple of years ago, thirty months later, about to retest that area.

And if he breaks through, they're really aren't any any sellers in the name. Every bone would be positive. You've got an arrest in the sixties, not overboard yet. So it'll probably struggle with that thirty eight, thirty nine dollar area.

I'm anticipating the the break out here, but I think it's one of those situations where it's a really high quality company, not expensive, clearly diverging from the rest of the oh. And when you listen to what charon and axon said this morning about their plans to spend, all of that money goes to companies like Baker hues, which is oil field services giant. So I like the stock. I like the business as well. Looks really healthy and I think I could work.

Okay, a brand what you think yeah.

I think that's that's a great assessment of Baker hues. I think also, it's interesting. I mean, we own viper, which is probably one of the best performing, if not the best performing in the energy space, which is minor rights up sixty six percent.

I think really we want to see more china's stimulus to me. That's the catalyst that we're onna need to actually get the sector writ large to go higher towards into the year. So we'll see what happens after the election next week of china is waiting to see who wins. If we get some more stimulating stimulative of measures in china, I think that definitely boats well to the energy sector. But I like Joshua illi eld .

services play bag. You got x on. Speaking of shares, we're higher. We can take a look now. The rebs good report raises dividend.

good report and they raise their dividend. As you point out, that's another one in the sector that's actually done very well, up about twenty percent year to date. But I just want to echo something that bring in, josh, just both said, if you listen to what companies saying are saying on their calls, they're saying they're going to be drilling more.

And there's a lot of, for instance, offshore projects that are going be coming to bear over the next couple of years. I own trans ocean similar to Baker hues, except that it's offshore. And their conference call yesterday, they said it's very clear that spending is picking up.

So the point here is you can look at energy Prices such as oil or natural gas and say, hey, maybe this is a terrible sector to be in. Or you can listen to what the companies are saying. The companies are saying business is good and likely to stay that way. I'm going to go with what companies are saying. Yes.

no exposure. Mean, I don't I know you don't love the space generally speaking, but how mean how would you assess IT as a investable idea? You look.

it's investible the real companies of real cash flows, of real dividends, if that's what you're playing for. But I just find IT to be feast or famine and famine for nine years and feast for the ten year, and i'm not so sure.

So if I were to play IT, I play the Baker uses of the world because I think it's a good thing ultimately, if the big oil companies are drilling more and more, because all that's going to do is suppress the Price of oil, and then that will lead to lower budgets eventually. But the best way that played is, again, with the tool belt. So you don't bet in .

the commodity. Okay, let's get the headlines now .

at berta cooms berta, north korea says IT will support russia until the country achieves Victory in its war with ukraine, according to north koa's foreign minister. At a meeting with russia's catterson today in moscow, the north korean minister accused the us. And south korea of plotting a nuclear strike against her country, but did not provide evidence to back that accusation.

A congressional investigation into anti semitism on college campuses found that administrators, quote, overwhelmingly failed to respond to protest over the israel gaza war. The report released by the G O P light house education committee said college officials made astounding concessions to the encampment organizers deliberately withholding support for jew is students. And SONY is suing its partner, cbs, over the distribution of the iconic game shows real of fortune and jeopardy.

So IT comes us. Cbs is IT claims, and rather that cbs is incapable of distributing the shows, probably following recent waves of layoffs and company turmoil. SONY also uses cbs of self dealing and fAiling to secure top Prices for the shows. Cvs denied the allegations. God.

back to you both to thank you. It's birthday. All right, quick break. We come back with the calls of the day. Be those next.

In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat and it's about the bottom line from the new york exchange and washington your votes. november. C. M, B, C.

We're back calls of the day. We begin with worker reiterated by cfa. They reported their earnings on saturday, so stay tuned for that Price target to five, twenty five.

Their bullish into that number. They say they believe that perches ensure and centric diversified revenue and earning model is a positive for the shares. Just you go first because you owe IT, and then we hear from jim.

this is the poster child for why you want to buy as yourself toward long term holding and whether and would stand the volatility. I remember on this show debating dog casts like ten years ago with the stock at fifty, whether or not I would go to forty or sixty, that's not what I do. This is what I do. Uh, i'm right or die broke shapey shares. And um I think I think a lot of people are, and it's paying us all very nicely today.

Q the emails now bank right? never.

姗姗， 我。

So that was very well put. I will also add that when I think about a stock like this, I tried to think about what is maybe not known not placed into the stock. And I think there's one thing, obviously cfr a is talking about the insurance business, but the railroad, I think, is very intriguing. Billing to northern has underperformed its peers for quite some time, and there's a known playbook in railroading of how you fix that precision scheduled railroading just a matter of time before they institute that and get their Operating ratios moving in the right direction. Maybe that happens this quarter, but eventually that happens.

Here's one for you. Jimmy city reiterated as a conviction by a golden sex post their earnings report. They talk about a number of positive trends in place, improving credit metrics, s in their card business, a momentum and wealth and the wealth business we .

thing conviction by. There's been times where I felt like I should be convicted for having bought that. Obviously, over the last year, it's done very well.

I think there are just go back to what I said a second ago, there are things that are not yet Price in, but should be in the first half of next year. You'll see the spin out of bna ics. I think that is not placed into the stock.

I think that will be positive. Equally, there are some consent orders from regulators that I think in the first half of next year, they will come out from under and that is not Priced into the stock. Those are things look forward to.

right? But we ve got VISA this week with zoho Price target goes to two ninety two from two seventy.

And you will want to tell me, okay.

it's that two, nine, two. So I think you think that to raise that a little bit higher a VISA is right at making all time eyes. This company does not miss earnings the very high margins. This last quarter, they reported they had emerging markets of twenty two percent, cross border in europe also twenty plus percent. So I just think this is just an increase incredible high margin mode like business recent master card that that run the show.

josh, round up this week. Now we did hear from you yesterday about uber. Obviously, post earnings IT did get upgraded today though at gordon asked to a by attractive entry point brought by the cell off yesterday, stock's happened and a little bit really bound. Two percent was down eleven though yesterday.

Yeah, I thought the quarter they reported was great. I thought the guidance was great. I really don't understand what yesterday was about.

Even the the guidance they gave was like right in the middle, the range. I really know what people are looking for. I think yesterday was a blood red day for girl stocks.

They picked the wrong data, not have a blowout number, I suppose. But this company is an incredible shape. I'm really excited about the things dara is working on for the future. So I remain long and nothing has changed in terms of how I view this opportunity. Alright.

when we come back, we're going to do a contrary and check. And remember, beginning of the year, we ve got contrarian picks from all of our committee members will see how they're doing right now. It's too much to go in the year SHE. Would they think lies ahead over that period time to us?

right? Let's take a look at our contrarian place. Remember the beginning of the year, each committee member chose a contrarian play in this market, and we've tracked IT throughout the year.

Brin, you're first you had the fx I china. Little did you know that there would be the stimulus that was announced. Not that long go.

Of course, nobody did, but that's part of a concern thing. Up thirty one percent year to date. Is the X I. Are you still in IT? And what do you think about IT?

Now if you remember, I said this is my contrarian trade, but i'm not in IT because communism doesn't win. But I thought, as a contrary and trade, other investors could take advantage. I think that you see these stocks have come back about fifteen percent.

In general, I think we going to need to get more stimulus for the market to to continue this upward move. Otherwise, I am fearful that this is just gonna kind of like debt by a thousand cuts. If there's not more china's stimulus.

why is your call was to sell energy um which has been a good call. It's energy as the sectors up six percent on the year crudes down two percent. So I think you told us earlier why you are not a big fan of that trade or anything to add.

Yeah, just unreal with performance, it's done really poor. So when you look where you could put your money in the market, other places are thinking, just be Better off doing. And I just add that the best energy traders we all know have the toughest time making money in energy. So what are people who weren't dedicated to .

that space do? Alright, Jimmy, yours was utilities. Good call, up twenty six percent year to day. Tell us more. Well, this year is return.

I think we all know is on the back of data centrate growth and the utility demand that's coming from that. I would love to see here and say that was my call the beginning, the year, but my call was actually just rely contrary IT was, this was, look, I gotta be gotta honesty, right? IT was purely contrarian.

Utility ties had gotten clAmber last year. Anybody remember next there? Energy, how badly that got smacked? And so that looked like just an obvious turnaround play. IT was a turnaround play and the data center boost .

just added to I have given a total pass if you said.

you know know there's no way if I said that both you and Steve would have carved me Steve, be talking blind skirt irl.

One squirl josh, you had the k web obviously at china tech play that's up nineteen percent year to date. Now what do you think about that now?

Yeah, that's probably like the biggest contrarian thing you could have said in january is I want to be long chinese stocks. IT looked much outside this IT looks. IT looked much Better in september than IT looks.

Now at one point this year, IT was up about forty five percent year to day, and it's given up about half those gains. I'm not personally in this, but I was just trying to think of like what's the last thing anybody would tell someone else to do right now? And that was IT. So that's where we are.

okay? We do have plenty earnings next week, which is why we do to set up next.

Let's do the set up marriott monday before the bell. Josh, you said that the stock was poised for a breakout. Tell me more.

Well, IT did break out. And you know this is just part of this continuing thing where people are are continuing to do estimate, uh, the resilience of the consumer and how little the consumer seems to care about overnight fed funds rate when they make their travel plans. This thing looks just up to the right, a boring, a bad report. I think I think it's at the three hundred.

okay, Jimmy, win resorts monday after the bell source is close to the half time report, were were out in in lost vegas recently. I wanted to win, but i'm presumably other people were.

I was I was out there in August. I puts some money in the till. I am a believer in win.

We know that it's gone up over the past month. There are so on the back of china and a stimulus what that implies from a aw, that's legit. But I continue to say that the stock is undervalued relative to its strip property, which is going ganging busters.

And they have that land bank across the street. At some point, they'll develop that. Let me not lose the the Cherry on top, which is the dubai investment that they're making, which is going going to be great.

Twenty twenty six how many color shades as you get in there? I mean, I we missed the vegas over here. I mean, how many more you you .

want to work for ten bencher?

Is monday after the bell? Is the six the best S. M.

P. Stock months today? Well, get your month. Get your month today because I mean, it's november first .

yeah but I mean, here today it's been great.

Is the year I know what meant yeah anyway, it's one well today.

Crushed IT. It's crushed IT and sets up one hundred and forty five percent. I may puts some hedges on before the stocks had a monster move.

I think that earnings are the going to nine sense of the expectation. And so I think that the stock could easily trade down. It's not such a big move, but probably two point five, two point six billion in revenues for the year.

So it's got a ninety billion dollar market cap. So I really like this company long term, but I can easily see IT trade down just because I had such a big mood. So I O, I might sell some calls.

right? We'll take a break. We will come back and we will highlight a stock of josh's that just hit a new fifty two week the day we will do that next.

On the highlights work, today's big winners, it's toasts new fifty two week a day. Josh Brown just bought that again on monday, josh?

Yeah, this is really becoming a great story. I've been involved with an on and for a while now and they have earnings next week. I don't have any edge jn like whether or not theyll be three pennies or four pennies ahead, but i'm looking at the momentum in the name.

And I think the market is coming around to this idea where not only are they taking share and getting bigger within the industry, but the expansion into new verticals with each restaurant they sign is happening as well. So looking forward to hearing what they say on the technically the stock looks pristine. It's a fifty two week high nothing not .

to like you brain quickly album more is on pace to break its three week losing street they did announce a divided um what do we think?

I think it's more like a two year losing streak. So let's say now i'm only down thirty two percent. The way to play this though is you think china is going to continue to stimulate.

This is actually a really good way to play litham. Obviously, they're all E, V in china. And so I think that you will see allama continue to regain some of the losses as the china narrative. If that china narrative continues.

alright, will take a break. We'll find next time you're reading a good joke for us, right?

We we're not going to know though.

Stay in my way, be back after this. I once again Morgan stanly apple analyst c wood ring will be among my guest today on closing bell stuff finally link great branch, IO, yoka, low, tony, those two final trades, josh.

sticking with over.

Okay.

brain minds, uber to market gets wrong all the time.

Oh, okay.

farmer gym is the easy button by in video.

I I don't know.

Same mea platform stay with IT about .

a couple hours. The exchange .

begins right now.

You've been listening to see nbc halftime report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at twelve turn only on cnbc.

All opinions expressed by the alf time report participants are sold their opinions and do not reflect to the opinions of C N B C N B C universal, their parent company, or affiloir tes, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium.

You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an impediment. Such opinions are based upon information the half of time report participants consider reliable, but neither cnbc nor fillies and subsidiaries weren't. Its completeness, accuracy and IT should not be relied upon as such. To view the full half time report disclaimer, please visit N B C D com forward slash halftime report.

Discover in this election there is politics and there's power. It's our beat and it's about the bottom line. Lie from the new york that exchange, washington, your votes, november, N. B, C.