Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks to the Market 11/19/24
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in big you, kara and Sarah. Welcome to the last time before before I am corn in urgent in in for scotland in or front and center this hour. The rebounding stocks of the major in disease way off the lows and creeping into positive territory as markets digested escalates SHE joyed to stay and geopolitical and regulatory risks joining me for the hour.

Josh Brown, definitely. Jim laving fall and Jason night. Let's going to check on the markets marginally.

Mixer at this hour the deal would touch lower your S M P. Five hundred. He is higher, around fifty nine hundred dollars. It's been a lot of t vt.

Going on around the world, certainly in the geopolitical landscape in the headlines that we're hearing overnight, it's worth noting again that pun issued warning to the united states in the threshold the use of nuclear weapons has been lowered. And we saw the future cell off this morning, Jason. But then things kind of shook off and maybe we got our footing again.

What do you make of all of that? How do we digest these these big news? The market sort of moving on?

Yeah, I think generally speaking on ford is very unfortunate event, obviously. You know the geopolitical issues and what's going on ukrainy in russia and on ongoing issues. Now it's been here since since this war started, but they're generally passed events.

So I think you know it's it's very encouraging to see the procession that we saw thus far, right with the early on futures are selling off and now you see the markets opened up and we're starting to see some positive returns. I think the other story for me as as we look ahead, clearly, there was a trump trade that really did well. We saw a lot of growth in the market.

It's wane some over the last few over the last week. So but I think the fundamentals are still strong. Ppi, cps very much in line.

You know, companies earnings was was so this quarter, we expected earnings grow for four percent. We saw a little over five and a half percent thus far, ninety five percent of IT is done. The real story is going to be in videos this week. I think that's the next catalyst going forward. But I think the fundamentals have been solid, element has been strong, and I think that's why the markets are still on on a steady ground here.

What do you make of the move in the markets? I mean, when the trump election news was solidified, the markets really, really, of course, just saying we've sold off. That was a geopolitical larger event that really move things.

But then overnight, the headlines, again, set all out, didn't really move things, at least for very long. So what should the market be digesting here? do. Why has the trump trade ari faded? He has been taken office yet.

yeah. Well, i'm a strong believe, a cortney that this is just the pause that refreshes. We did have one heck of a rally last week.

IT would have been unusual, Frankly. Ly IT would have been uncomfortable had IT continued with Jason on this, by the way, that is uncomfortable, as IT is to say. So russia versus ukraine is not the story.

IT hasn't moved the markets for almost three years now. Yes, I did in the very start. But really for the last three years, anything it's happened there hasn't move the markets.

Now I don't want to drink IT, and then something unthinkable happens. But for now, that is the case that this is a market that's likely to power through that. And I also agree with what Jason was saying.

The fundamentals are strong. Before the election, we knew we had a strong economy. Now we've got to growth policies coming into place.

Sentiment is very strong, unlikely to pick up as the year kryn dos in the year end. Who wants to selling take taxable gains or risk getting behind the index at this point in the year. So things really look good.

You've got the fed cutting with they should not is not the point the you're got trying to stimulating. Whether they're doing or not enough or not is not the point they're stimulating. So things really look like all systems go after this pause that refreshes seven.

I mean, that seems like gold's access is on the same page. So as A B M O organ standing with their targets for the S M P, as what jim is saying. And we've got A B M O yesterday at sixty seven hundred and Morgan stanly sixty five hundred yesterday and golden sex saying, yes, target of sixty five hundred, the S M P for fifty nine hundred. Now I mean, that's quite a ways to go here.

That leafed tracker just came out and it's two point six percent of the current quarter, right? So you're running anywhere between two and three percent. okay.

For the last year year and a half, actually we grew three twenty four percent last year. So we're still seeing the moment. And I think what what's bothering the markets in the short term, very short term, we did have a five percent Spike in the market.

That's very big. But the other thing is that the trump administration is per growth, as Jimmy just mentioned. But and also is there's an expectation that inflation is going to be elevated as well. Sticker than expected. And the core numbers last week, ppc pi in the trees, I think that was a little bit bothersome for people.

I'm not bothered by IT because I have said for such a long time, I will take faster growth in GDP and a little bit of a sticker inflation from an investment point of view because that means companies do have pricing power. They can increase their margins, they can see mid single digit revenue growth. But I wanted just go back to inflation in the concerns under trump.

One data in his administration, inflation was one point nine percent. And so I do not think you're going to have run away in flash, but I think that's what bothered the markets. And as a result, the feed then can be as aggressive.

So we've got dial all that back down. Like to Jimmy's point, we are going to see a cycle and that is favorable for risk assets even if we have to live with a little bit higher interest rates. Maybe the neutral way is four, four and a half percent, I don't know, but I think we can live with that if we have Better growth on o political situation is very curious the timing, right?

I mean, because it's really gonna be dependent on the trump s administration as to what happens next. So we're kind of buying time. I think that's why the market is wrong because trump does want to get rid of some of these issues overseas. And maybe we will see that.

Josh, you think there's any seasonality to this, this move as we move into the end of the year? That sort of sane calls rally starting earlier. The retailers started earlier with their sales in october. We're here and for a number of them this week saying, you know, the consumers hang .

IT in there. You know .

every year, they tell me that the seasonality is Priced in and everyone's front running IT in August and september. And in every year, that happens anyway. So we had a big un.

Rally in two thousands twenty two. After the bare market bottoms in october. We had a huge urn rally in a twenty three.

I don't necessarily think that were set up for some massive powder egg, but a lot of people have trailed their benchMarks this year in the actively managed neutral fund world. You could just assume IT looks about the same in the S. M.

A. World, and you are going to see some people, for career reasons, put on some more risk than they had on all year because they've trailed. I think the important thing now, corny, is to focus less on the headlines and the news and to focus more on the data and Price.

And i'll give me example for all the headlines about who is going to be the treasure secretary and what does this mean for autonomous vehicles and blow blow up. The big story that's not being covered is the fact that free earnings for share estimates have doubled over the course of this quarter. So on october forth, the earnings pursue estimates for A Q four were expected to coming in at four point two percent year over year.

Now it's about eight point five percent year over a year. So as we got these reports in, analysts took the time to look at their earnings for the current quarter and said we're way too low. And if you actually look at the bigger picture, this is now the fifth straight quarter for S M.

P. Five hundred earnings growth. A lot of people, as we came into this year, we're Priced for earnings recession or outright recession. We just didn't get IT. So analysts are are looking at twelve point one percent earnings per share growth um for the next quarter, twelve point seven for the quarter after that, twelve percent for the quarter after that.

Unless you tell me that one of these items in the news is about to materially disrupt that in some quantifiable way, I say tuned out, focus on the bigger picture. Interest way are coming down. Earnings are rising. You want to be in stocks.

you know, Jason, it's interesting, as i've been talking to these different retail CEO with their earnings, i've been asking them now that we're past the election, has any of this uncertainty sort of moved on because so many of them were hanging their hat on that for months and for quarters? No one has really said with certainty so far that IT has, but then bank of america's equity client lows are showing so much more post election equity inflows. So what does that tell you about how investors feel now there will pass the election past the uncertainty. I mean, seven of eleven sectors planes are buying stocks .

into one hundred percent corner. And I think IT IT just goes to show that sentiment is strong and injustice pointed in, in terms of earnings grow, what the earnings is, expectations are. There has been some, some valuation move lately, but I think earnings can come through.

I mean, the fundamental stories from the companies you mention, retail, whether its semon, ductor stars, would have been struggling. But software has been very positive. There's a lot area industrials, you know on showing that Jimmy talks about a lot.

I think there's a lot of areas to like. And I when I see some of the pull bec that we seen over the less. Week or so. I think that presents an opportunity to get into some of these names, and I do think they'll be a fair amount of chase. There always is at the end of the year when we think about seasonally and we think about s maze and meur al funds, maybe not performing as which as in the manner in which they had lied to. This is the time when you start to see some animal spirits kind of kind of fry through .

the market jme or not.

Yeah well, I thinking as you asked the question and Jason was answering about the individual retail fws, the rate on cash a has come down now it's still attractive. I mean, let's to make sure we know that it's still attractive and IT still gives an after inflation return, but at seventy five basis points lower than IT was. So on the margin that should incentivize some people to get into the market would be clear.

This is not tina. You there is an alternative four and half four to three quarters on on cash, but it's not as attractive. What i'll tell you though, an acronis I will use here for the retail investors, formal applies again.

You know, people see what's going on in the markets even after the pause. They see that the numbers these analysts are putting out strategists rather for targets, are six thousand plus, but a big number people are saying way to second. And that's a whole new millennium that is going to inside the animal spirits, but can be can be captured by the term homo.

There's six point four trillion dollars of cash in many markets. So i'm all of that is going to come into the equity markets. And to your point, there are a lot of alternatives, including alternatives.

So so there's a lot you .

can do with your money these days, and I think that, that's happening. But I also, to your question on our companies and they feel and Better. I think we heard from some of them that they are feeling Better. Now we don't know a lot about tabs. We don't know a lot about inaction as we talk about what do we do now, we know that consumers is pretty, and we can tell.

But if you have retail sales that are growing at four point six percent, if you have an ism services number that is close to sixty, and then you have some companies that are doing really well um in in the face of kind of all the unknowns. And i'm so just imagine when we actually get more of the known or the unknowns known. Thank you.

I think corporations are going to feel Better. I think consumers are feeling Better. And and then obviously, we've talked a lot about manufacturing that's just in the first or second name. So there's a lot of things to be excited about, a lot of reasons why you want to put .

your money into our gas. Josh's, we're looking at for some opportunity in these broader discussion points. Financials are up more than six and a half percent just since the election. Just question ary up six percent. You think there's any room to run still for some individual names in those sectors? Or should you look at somebody of the underperformers going to the end of the year?

So my style is not really to look for under performers and and try to call bottoms and stop. I'm really bad at IT as evidence. I tried to do that in visor a year ago, was still waiting for the bottom.

So that is not what what i'm focused on right now. I want to just point out, I do agree with Stephanie. Companies do feel good.

They may not feel as good when the trois become real, but I just listen to Howard lottie on the network say the same thing that we learned eight years ago, take trump seriously. Not literally. He's not going to put tariff on things that we don't make here.

What's the point of doing that? So if that if it's more of a real political thing and it's less dry and then IT sounds, I think we can get a custom to IT in the markets. There will be some headline shocks, but I really don't think IT has to draw the ball market.

I don't think IT has to be the end of this. And just when you look at individual setups on my list of the best stops in the market, starbucks just popped on this week up a fiba ten year chart of that stock. Look how much rumor is as IT clears resistance dating back from two thousand and twenty one.

You have arguably the best year in the sector now running. Starbuck haven't been recruiting away from to poli. Take a look at cb.

Richard ellis. C B. R. A. This is commercial real estate.

Um this is an incredible chart right now. You've got setups all over the air products. A P D.

This is an industrial. We never talk about IT, maybe Stephanie jm deo. I never talk about IT. This child looks on this chart, looks on believable.

So focus on the companies, focus on the stocks that are in motion, doing well, breaking out to new eyes. Don't bottom fish, don't worry about trump trades. Forget about all that.

I think what's work all year will continue to work. Look for great setups in great fundamental companies. And I think you'll be fine speaking, a great .

fundamental company is jim, what about tech? I mean, those of the names are gotten to these all time high that they are going to continue to take us there. We go to the video coming out tomorrow.

Well, okay. So let's talk about in video. I want to give her tip to josh's, the one I think rope all of us who's been in at the longer maybe you two, Jason.

But look, the report is likely to be very good tomorrow. There's no reason to think that will be otherwise. When you look at what the hyper scale is talking about, cpc s and basically every news item as people can get enough for the chips.

As far as the short term Price action, I would say really don't pay attention to IT. A lot of this has to do with short dated options that are people putting on to play the pop, presumably after earnings happen and then they sell the calls and that makes the stock go down. So they will be worried about the short term action.

Regarding tech in general, I think for the same reasons that we've all been talking about earlier in the show, people are going to be loved to sell these going into year. And again, you don't want to take a taxable game. And if you're index in some way benchmark, you're not going to be able to take the risk of falling behind the benchmark, by the way.

And I just want to tie this into what josh was saying a second ago. When you talk about bottom fishing and why is really a bad idea right now, is because the opposite of what I just said applies, the things that we've gotten designated this year are likely to be tax lost candidates. They're likely to get bar mold in december. That's not where you want to be shopping right now.

Jason, or you've on the video of gym just said you might have been in the onest. What do you make ahead of the printing is, is too late for someone that hasn't gotten in at the Price action that we're seeing now?

I don't think so. K, I think I think the question is obviously is how how sustainable is this on our ongoing AI compute demand? How how sustainable is going forward? Yes, this stocks up one hundred eighty nine percent year a day. We're spreading about thirty three billion dollars of revenue, probably will surpass us somewhat.

I think in the next quarter wever, where you really start to see black welcome through that will be the bang out quarter, which is the corner that where we're working through right now, which you potential to see thirty eight billion dollars worth the revenue. Um so I continue to like this story. We again, we hear from the hypersonic all the capex span that's going in the space that obvious ly and video continues to capture.

There's not a lot of competition for them currently. Um so I continue to like the stock, and I think that maybe maybe you're not buying IT right here, but there will be opportunities that present themselves. We've seen how the stock has traded over the last week.

Josh, what are you waiting for ahead of india as an owner of this name as well?

There's a report out there that the implied swing for in video up or down is expected to be about eight and half percent. That's in line with the average spring that we've seen over the last twelve quarters. Boot the company is much bigger than it's ever been. It's three and a half trillion dollars. So a swing of that magnitude de is almost three hundred billion dollars, which is more than almost every publicly traded uh companies market cap.

So we are basically looking at a situation where the biggest, most loved, most celebrated, most well regarded stock in the entire market is coming out with learnings report that yet again, they guide and higher going into analysts are now looking for thirty three point two eight billion dollars, which was a guide up from last quarter, seventy cents in earnings per share. That equates to eighty four percent year over year revenue growth and eighty nine percent earnings per share growth. So my comment here would be, yes, we all hope for the best, but let's all be very honest with each other.

A company at thirty three billion dollars in revenue, being able to do eighty four percent growth on that and then telling me they're onna do IT again next time is very low. I think in the tight rope that in video now has to walk is to remain optimistic about the future but not continue to push out those expectations and and give people the impression that year over year sales doubling for the thirty for a three trillion dollars is in any way realistic as well as expectations. I think they get IT.

I think there's a way to do that. I think there's a way to give guidance, sound optimistic, but not keep painting yourself. And to a corner of people looking for doubles every time you report, we will see if they could pull IT all off. That's what i'm watching for.

yes. So could be a magical verbs if you actually prefer broadcom to invidia.

Well, I mean, I like in video, but I feel like I missed IT, but I have done well with broadcom just given its diversified revenue mix. You do get the number two A I players, it's going to be a twelve billion dollar for the company. You do.

What I really like to is they have they bought the m where and that's going to be a four billion dollar per quarter revenue run rate for them. So the diverse. And i'd like very much. And so and also, the valuation is a little bit cheaper, but it's up a lot. It's a forty seven percent this year, year to date.

And so it's had a nice run, I think with in video, if IT is down, I don't know about you guys, but I think it's going to first and formal at seven percent of the S M P. Five hundred in terms of its weight, it's almost nine percent of the nas tax. So if you're if you're betting against IT, you have to offset IT, which is what i'm doing with a com.

It's a very big position to offset. However, you know this is a company that is a whole new product cycle story that hasn't even begun next year. And we all know that the hyper scale ers are are spending tons and tones of money, about forty one percent rise this year alone and a seventeen percent rise in next year.

And so that's real tellings for the company. So i'm sad I don't own IT, but i'm happy I don't broadcom. And I think lam research is also an A I play that hasn't had the respect things that that will play catch up in twenty twenty five.

There doesn't have to be just one winner, of course, is good to talk about several.

I have a ton of industrial that also are benefiting from A I too.

So we have a yes, absolutely. You know, Jason, we started this conversation here on the show about the market shaking off headlines. We're looking at alphabet here sitting at its high as after we saw these reports, the department justice is looking to ask google to sell off chrome to break up this monopoly.

Y doesn't seem to really affect the Price of of the shares today, at least not right now, I should say. And there also has a been a lot of discussion about what might happen or may be their husbands cussion that we don't know under trump going forward, particularly big tech. I think he wasn't easy on them.

The first time he wasn't, he wasn't. And and I think you know this is probably the last each other or or last polish, if you will, you know from the any trust perspective on how they're going. And I made in some of these cases, I mean, this is not new for google.

Um they have been under fire for for several years. I mean this is this is not a new story. But when I look at the quarter, I mean, they had a great quarter and a google cloud was really strong.

Search was strong. I mean, were observed concerned about the disruption of church and there's a lot of players now in the space. Um but that's that's obviously their core business and their ad business was really strong. So I continue to like this stock going for d. I'm not saying this is noise and not just completely dismissing IT, but I do think they'll power through and and we have to look to the new administration to see how this kind of winters.

then you get some others .

ship here yeah I think first off, there is a long road between the rumors that the department of justice is going to ask for this small break up and IT actually happening. And google is a very well capitalized alphabet acuity, very well capitalized company that is going to fight this tooth and nail.

This is going to be years in terms of appeals for to actually get done, as Jason's just pointed out, a change in leadership of the department of justice. We don't know who is gonna, but you know that this may not be their priority. And in the meantime, I mean, you mention google cloud and and search and youtube and also a way o let's not forget there's a lot there's a lot of irons in the fire for google, very attractively Price. So I think all of this is why today is brushing off that news and and the shares are marching higher.

yes, sitting higher by about three quarters of a percent, one hundred and seventy six. And change were coming up next new at noon, what the CEO of laws just told me and how the committee is positioned in the retail space on this very big week or weeks war of the space. But Robin hood is getting into work management.

Don't miss a cbc exclusive on its deal to by trade P. M, R. Half time is that .

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look like a half time report.

Lets hit some retail stocks on the move here this morning, starting with lows, shares or lower despite earnings. I spoke to CEO Marvin ellison, and I asked him if there's a preferred interest rate that these differing home products start to get done. He said, organ, have to see mortgage tes start to corporate more with the fed action.

We think we're going to get to a new Normal when IT comes to rates. And I think that obviously, we just haven't gotten there yet. Very interesting stuff there.

And then he also, we talked a little bit about herself and he said, look, we have about forty percent of our goods source outside the united states, not specifically china, is that we've been here before. We've been doing this now for seven years. The next administration, the by administration, did not roll back those terror.

We are in the process of sort of playing out of game theory to look at different strategies of what we might need to roll out should these potential tariff s come into play. So sort of a lot of moving parts here, but generally, the quarter was was slipping Better than expected. I think, Jason, you own laws.

What do you make of the report? yes. I mean, the stocks still up around fifty percent year year over year um well, first year to day, i'm sorry. And you know to your points beat on the top of the bottom line.

I think when we talk about mortgage and I think the important thing to always know directionally, we know where the fed is going, but mongo tracor closely tell her to the tenure. And obviously, if we've seen some, some strengths in the ten, and that's why great have come down as law as as much as the consumer might have expected. I think there's also been some softness in, in the big ticket items, which I think is a concern.

But the reason why I continue to like lows, they continue to grow market share in the procedure um which is typically not what where theyve always been. And I think Marvin ellison is just done a great job with just spearheading that initiative. So I ue to like this one i'm holding out.

I think rich will eventually move lower and I think you'll such a more activity in the D. U. I have you own home depot.

Obviously this is the one that seems more over index when IT comes to the process ah but seeing similar things, macros omics. As lows said, both the CFO of home devitt fail and also more than one else than that was so that they both agree that we think that you can get much worse when IT comes to housing turn over. It's got in flex from here and most of their shoppers are hooked nes, but they just don't want to be moving around when rates are sold.

These and I thought lows was fine, right? And I thought in terms of the guide higher, we'll get the home to on my set. But the guide higher, I just think that that's where the cell size was and the bystanders already yet, right, they didn't really blow IT away. So yeah, they're kind of binding their time. They're doing the best that they can.

In terms of profitability, I would say the same thing for deep and the fact that sales have outperformed inventories by two points for six consecutive quarters at home, deep, that to me is why i'm excited because that helps the margin story um and just we have to just wait for the top line to come through so that we can get positive Operating leverage. But I also think that goes back to the mix because you mention DIY that seventy percent of lows mix and prose thirty. And we know DIY is struggling more than pro and home depo did a little but Better because their fifty, fifty to your point, right?

In terms of and that what is and why, i'm excited about that because they just made an accommodation home dev, made an acquisition tion of S R S. And that actually is the reason they got to fifty percent of their mix being pro. And I think they're onna continue to grow that business even if it's margin deluded.

I would much prefer than being in the right areas, the strong areas. So I think it's just a matter of time. This is what my favorite stocks for the year and started pretty .

every we're getting here from target tomorrow morning. They come out with results .

and you acting, you know, I looked at the last six quarters of this company four times they missed, one time they beat and one time they came in line so that they've been very inconsistent. That's not to say that I don't think what they are doing isn't working. I think IT is working.

They've done a lot of you know this Better than I because you look at the stores and you talk to the management team all the time, but they are doing the right things in getting the right products in the stores. They're doing Better in execution. They're doing Better and inventory management.

So I think we are going to continue to see progress in margins. Operating margins. They did six point four percent last quarter. If they can do that again and they can see kind of low single digit same source sales when you you're looking at a company that could deliver eleven dollars in earnings power in the next year, which is why I like IT. And if you look at the multiple spread from target to wall mart, it's the wifi is ever been in history. It's at fifteen times from first is walmer at thirty four times not to that walmer doesn't deserve IT because the execution and the strength and the size in the scale um at walmer. But I do think that target can play catch up and they're doing a lot of internal self helped things to get them in a Better spot.

I was just going to ask quickly before we move on about if there's anything from walmart that you can quarrel to target even though they have kind of been diverging in a lot of areas and walmart has been so consistent and target has been a bit inconsistent.

yeah. I mean, I think walmart has had a Better product set and they have got and they figured out their inventory management way quicker than target did IT to target a really long time to to write size their venti. I think they're there. But to them.

a while there was that that elementary missed up for a while. They're around the pandemic. Well, let's move on to get the headlines of bird cooms high birtha.

How democrats rejected her king jeffrey's today to be the party's minority leader in the chAmber, Jeffery received support from his colleagues despite democrats failed the tense at flipping the house in the november election. Democratic WIP Katherine Clark and caucus chair pete eglah were also reelected this morning. Brazilian police arrested five people today in an alleged plan to kill then president elect luis nosie luna j.

Silva and his vice president days before they took office. One of the suspects include a member of the former president, gear vlsi aros government. The group includes four g twenty guards who allegedly plan the assassinations as part of a cool to return the far right bulls narrow to power.

And instagram users will soon be able to choose what they see in their feet. Social media upset IT will allow users to manually reset their recommend the algorithm and unfolding accounts as desired. Instagram says the change is particularly designed to ensure teenagers see age appropriate content. Count me personally. I want to see puppy and baby content.

That's that's my favorite. I got you covered on the baby content your way. Thank you.

Thank you. It's good to see things for those well coming up. Robin hood striking a deal to acquire trade.

P. M, R. The cbc exclusive interview is next. You don't want to miss at a half time. Report will be right back.

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go back on half time with the doubt about one hundred points. Big news in fin tech, Robin 和 acquired wealth portfolio of platform trade pmr let's get to get ruin something for she's got an exclusive IT or for us。 Take away, kate.

Hey, they are cording. Yeah, think so much. And we've lab ten here, a cofee CEO of Robin hood, rob bolden as well.

CEO of trade. P. M, R. Big deal. Take for you guys. I want to start with three hundred million dollars.

What's this strategic rationale behind this? And I wonder, like do Younger investors actually want a human advisor that might surprise people as you guys are check for we think of A I playing a big part. People do want yeah I mean.

first all thank you for having us we're very excited about this. Wealth management is a huge industry, seven trillion industry in the us. Robin hood as A Q three hundred and sixty billion in A U M.

With with trade pmr joining us, that takes us to two hundred billion in A U M. And what we find is that as customers get older, their financial needs become more sophisticated. Uh, the need for personalized high quality advice increases. And you know Robin team have just built an awesome platform uh, with great technology and we see an opportunity to accelerate that end to connect uh their network of advisers to are twenty four million plus customers and give them access to awesome tools as they go on their financial journey. And rob.

talk a bit about the demographics here. You've talked about some of this gap and you scribing IT as maybe your your R S. Or sort of the age of maybe the parents of the average Robert vester. How are you going to bridge that gap and talk about the demographics?

We really want to create a multi generational platform that helps bridge that gap and kind of interesting ces parties back and forward to each other because you know our generation, you know that is retiring in and so forth. Even in the advisor world, they're looking to try to generate new relationships with the next generation. And the truth of the matter is seventy percent of years fire their parents advisor when they hurt money.

And that's a really catastrophic event. And it's very difficult reach that generation. So you know, with robot od, we don't have to do anything but reach them exactly where they are, where they have their products, where they have their services and where they enjoy their user in the face. So IT makes this a real win.

win forty billion. And asses, do you expect any attraction? Are there any of your clients who just might no offense, but not want to use rob.

we haven't heard of any yet. So everything seems to have gone over really well. I think people understand this and they understand the advantages .

this is going to present. invite. We've got jobs annual conference here that a lot of the products that you have launched would compete directly with fidel and choo.

Can you talk little bit about competing with the incumbents and the success of of trying to basically take assets from them? You've offered some promotions, but are you seen that fly will continue? And what if the .

asset transfers looked like? Yeah, asset transfers have been quite high you know in in the past quarter IT was uh, are we broke through the full year record of nett deposits in in just three quarters with one left to spare? And i'd say when we talk to advisors register investment advisers, one thing that they don't like about the incumbent platforms is that they're competing with them.

So they have their own in house advisers and there's this constant fear that their custodian is gonna a try to take their account. And I think that's something that's uh, that's been missing since the T D swab consolidation. And what we can provide with with trade pmr is a level playing field for advisers.

You shouldn't have to worry that your custodian is going to compete with you for clients. I think that's that's a big thing. Like we talk a lot about the technology, the user interface incorporating A I, but I think the biggest thing is just being able to compete for for accounts on a level playing field and also access the Robin hood network for for client revivals.

What is this going to cost? And the Robin had generation really grew up with free trading. I wonder how you're thinking about pricing some of this. And maybe, rob, you could speak to to what you charge.

Yeah right now, our Prices is going to remain the same and will continue to Price everybody the way we have today and know most of those are very low cost anyway from for just a platform usage. So what continue that for the time being? And I think everyone's acceptance of that .

and is is still going to be free. How do you thinking about that? Maybe all the seven eighteen to charge for, I think services .

in a way or or building is a marketplace. So we want to enable these advisers, who are very much like entrepreneurs, to connect with uh to connect with our customers. So the the the advisers will have freedom and flexibility to charge whatever they want.

Uh, of course, you know we'll try to make our overheads as low as possible and and really make IT so that your customers have access to to the best quality advice. And I think there are will be a natural competitive dynamic as with any market. But but yet, it's really about empowering advisers with the best technology.

And so robi had josh brand online. He's got a for you.

Hey guys, I want to start by saying.

congratulations, rob. I've known you for a long time, and I think you've built an incredible business and this must be really exciting for you and Monica and everyone else. I wanted to ask and either of you can answer, this is about three hundred and fifty ra firms currently platform on trade pmr and about a thousand plus adviser representatives.

What percentage do you guys think will be interested in taking on Robert hood clients? How many going to want to be in this profile ral network? And then take IT from the other direction. What percentage of Robin hood users do you think are looking for an adviser relationship? Thank you.

Sounds like i'll change the first one. You can answer the circle ment. I think almost all of them will joshi, after they realized what kind of client base actually robbin hood has.

I think sometimes people look at that. They think the Robin hood is just all small accounts. That's just not true.

They've these these are henries that have accumulated lot of wealth in many cases. And there's there's a lot of opportunity for those individuals, and we know they're very hard advisors elsewhere. So with this transition and this and this merger, we're going to be able to provide that service. Really know has a custodio platformer Robin hood as .

well that I want to jump in just with one last question. What we have you about, first of all, stockmarket, Robin, is up about forty percent and election largely on this expected that new sc chair could be a bit less hostile, at least towards cyp. Tio, what's your expectation for the new administration and the ability to may be launch products quicker in the future?

I think there's a lot of optimism. I think that you know the current admins, incoming administration embrace this new industry. And i've been saying for a long time there's two big technological shifts that could change the financial industry over the next decade, plus crypto and artificial intelligence.

We want to be at the center of that. And actually, when we talk to advisers, they really care about both of those things as well. They're asking about how they can incorporate artificial intelligence to serve more customers, improve their equality.

They want access to crypto to assets as well, which they don't really have access to through traditional platforms. So I think that, uh, the future looks bright, were very optimistic. And I think that Robin team are gonna be a big part of that .

is dan gallagher, your chief legal officer, are gonna get the soc job?

You know, he's got a nickname right? What's that? The crypto king? We call the crypto .

king my loosen of the c well.

we'll see. I think the country would be lucky to have him. But of course, we think he can have a lot of impact being the chief legal officer at Robin d as well.

We will leave with there, lad and rob. Thank you, gentlemen, for your time. Great to see you with. Great back with you.

Thank you so much. kate. Appreciate that interview on a day that that news was announced or coming up our calls of the day half time i'll be at that.

Back to half time, let's go through some of the biggest animals calls of the day. Apollo initiated overweight hyper send. Or Jason, you own this name. I imagine you like this call.

I do. I mean, the stacks up eighty percent year day, one of the strongest alterna managers in the space. I think when you think about what's going on with interests we ve talked about through the show and directionally and private equity and capital markets coming back online, you know, I think about net realizations for the some of the firms that they they own.

I just think that that's gona continue to be a created for their business. And also think about where their investments strategically are. Insurance in the power great center. So I just continued to like this name, and i'd like I like the call here.

We move on to another call. Redit raised target raised to one hundred and fifty dollars from one fifty and a piper. Josh, this is a recent buy for you. What do you like about this name?

Well, they just reported earnings, and it's one of the best earnings calls i've heard all year. They had a landmark quarter average, ninety seven million daus. If you know what to think about the advertiser business, monthly adjusters is irrelevant.

We only think that matters is da use. Are they coming every day? And on that metric, they're going to break a hundred million, which is a pretty big deal.

Um it's an increase of forty seven percent over the same quarter last year. None of the other social networks have anything like that, that they can share. They also hit gap profitability earlier than expected.

The revenue from advertiser is wrapping up, and there's a whole other leg to the store here. They're allowing third parties to utilize their data. Keep in mind, this is twenty years of accumulated user data in A I.

So those are not exclusive deals. They'll cut one with OpenAI, theyll cut one. We'll cut one already with google, and you'll do these deals with anyone that wants to. And I think this is going to be a revenue machine as a result t of that. So I remain long not a cheap stock but a company with incredible growth ahead of IT.

Yeah, what a run has had up sixty eight percent just a month will stride ahead. Mixon ti joins us with his midd day's half time of you are back. We're back on half time senior markets.

Commentor mike santa joins us with his midday word as usual. Like what's the headline today? IT doesn't seem like IT has anything to do with russia in great IT doesn't.

And maybe that says the little something about the market that I didn't immediately sees on that headline in the overnight unsettle action to say this is an excuse to sell off even more. There really was not a much of a flight to safety bid in bonds or an oil or anything like that market seems a little decisive at the moment. The loads for today in the S M.

P. Five hundred basically matched the post election laws we got there on couple days ago. On friday, we got there. Are you just in the start of the rally on on, on november six? So that seems like the market wants to kind of stay in this range.

At the same time, we had this elevated starting point for the trump trade, and the evaluations are what they are and wasn't as if people hated the market before. So if they're even optimistic about policy in itself, IT doesn't say immediate fuel for going higher. So I don't take IT as a negative that the market it's been kind of spitting its wheel for a week to have. Hopefully, sentiment doesn't get too numerous, things like crypto and things like low speculative stuff, but that's flared up a little bit over the last couple of a week.

What about the broader tech trade quickly here? Obviously, with video coming tomorrow, I mean, what are the markets going to want to hear and what would they extrapolate for Better for?

Yeah, I mean, that probably is the one tangible thing we know we're waiting for. Um I think it's I think the market crazes reassurance about twenty, twenty five and six in terms of demand trains, I think anyone expect it's gonna a great and eye catching number and the reaction will be fascinating to see if I if it's just in video, if IT has cotai and I I don't have a handy, nobody else does, that's why it's gona move seven percent on the number.

But that's right. Everyone is going hang every word like jobs. They might have to wait, walk a tight rope there.

I'll stay with us final trades coming up on now. We are back in time for our final trades. Josh, I got to start us.

New all time high in nasdaq nda. Q just like we dw, the play Jason D R.

horner's down seventeen percent this month. I like this entry point here.

And then we've .

been talking all this hour about animal spirits returning to the markets. I think small caps are a great way to play IT defining.

bring us on.

Crowd strike is still down ten percent from its ties, growing, earning forty percent and reves thirty five.

That doesn't today, four half time, with still a mixed ed market at the S M. P, slightly higher the dough, slightly lower exchange starts. Now you've been .

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