Temerity, Punditry & More Market Uncertainty
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Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I'm Dan Nathan, joined by Guy Adami. This is Wednesday morning, CPI Day, Guy, right on the opening. How you doing? Is this the all-important CPI Day? Is that the all-important job? No, it's all... I forget, you know, I lose track. Well, we have to look forward to the Fed's most favored PCE, which would be their favored inflation reading. We've got a lot to go through. We'll talk a little bit about inflation. We'll talk about tariffs and the trade war, the looming trade war.

war. Some messaging from the Trump administration. This has been going on for a few days about the economy. We know going back a few weeks, Treasury Secretary Besant was more focused on the 10-year yield, which oddly guy today is rallying a little bit that yield. So we're going to get that a little bit. And we got to talk NVIDIA next week. They have their huge

User Conference GTC. The stock is bouncing a little bit today, but where do you want to start? CPI, the stock market yesterday, the S&P at its lowest guy was down 10%. The NASDAQ 100 was down 13%. We're bouncing fairly hard today. The NASDAQ is up nearly 1.5%, 2% or so, and the S&P is up a little more than 1%. All right, so let's try to dissect this. As you said, the CPI number came out

and it was softer than expected across a myriad of different metrics, which market participants will be excited about. And I think people will

breathe a collective sigh of relief about but as you said oddly enough as i'm sitting here 10-year yields are about 432 or so which is highest we've seen in quite some time so to your point yields have actually gone up on the back of this i can't tell you exactly why in terms of the market and we've said this a number of times on market call and on the podcast you know when you have a vix

the mid 20s or so you're going to see violent moves both up and down and we saw it a little bit yesterday and obviously we're seeing it again today so as we're sitting here as you said the s p is up about one and a quarter percent nasdaq's up two percent ish the dow for what it's worth is up about half a percent you still have a vix although lower still north of 25 so you're going to get these sort of

fluctuations in violent in nature, both up and down. And I think that's where in the midst of. So I think there's a lot of a lot of people will be quick to sort of wave the all clear flag

I will not be one of those people, though, Dan. Right. And really, it comes down to messaging as it relates to tariffs and trade. And then most importantly, I think retaliation. Right. And, you know, economists, strategists, market participants, they're going to have a hard time figuring out when this sort of stuff moderates a little bit. We've talked about the EU. We talked about Canada, how they've in many ways become insurgent.

emboldened a little bit they're a little pissed off that you know the trump administration is trying to weaken their economies to benefit ours and so you know this is the sort of thing it's going to be back and forth i do think it's interesting that it was an inflation reading guy that sparked this sort of rally because let's talk about the fed's path and by the way

I was listening to Danny Moses on the tape podcast this morning that dropped in the podcast store. He has a guy named James Aiken. This was an awesome podcast. I listened to it this morning and they're talking about he thinks that there's going to be a May cut. He doesn't feel because...

inflation and I don't want to you know quote him inaccurately because inflation's coming down so hard it obviously has to do with economic weakness and the like and so that's really an interesting spot that we've been over the last year when we came into 24 the notion was that the Fed is going to be able to lower interest rates because they've achieved their inflation goals that didn't happen and then by the end of the year when they're cutting rates it was like oh we better support

the jobs market. So here we are now and folks are really starting to price in stagflation because of the back and forth and the uncertainty around trade. It's interesting you say, you know, in terms of the job market, I think there's a school of thought that lower rates somehow

spurs the job market and incentivize people to hire. Again, I'll say this. I'm not one of those people. I haven't really seen the factual evidence to sort of back that up. But I would understand why people would think that the Fed can control everything. But one of the things I've said for a while and one of the things I believe, if we are in the midst of a slowdown, which by the way,

quite frankly, the CPI number actually sort of speaks to. Obviously, you've seen some of the GDP forecasts out there for a negative GDP print. It's pretty clear that things are slowing down. You know, in a slowdown, there will be job cuts. You know, when you start to see the unemployment rate rise, it usually sort of a stair-step thing and you hit

what we call escape velocity. And I'm surprised by the way it hasn't happened sooner, but I just think it's inevitable that it will happen. And the Fed can lower rates all they want against that backdrop, but once it starts, it's not gonna stop. It's not one of those things like we're firing, we're hiring, it becomes a cycle.

And we might be on the verge of it. Obviously, the last employment number we saw, we saw a tick up in the unemployment rate. And I don't want to put too fine a point on it, as you would say. But that could be the beginning of something. And whether they cut in May or not, I think there's an inevitability to that. Yeah. And I guess the other point is, in past cycles, when the Fed was lowering interest rates to combat a weakening economy, they didn't have inflation that much

above their target, right? So right now, even with that CPI at 2.8, the core 3.1, it's way above where they want to be and they've never had this cumulative sort of situation, right? So when you think about it in that respect, it's a very different situation. Now with yields coming down the way the 10-year has,

you've seen 30-year fixed rate mortgage come down from, I think it was like 737 at its highest last spring, Guy, to about 6.67 or something like that. You're seeing mortgage applications rise. You will also likely see some refines and you'll also see home equity loans. And so maybe that kind of buoys the economy a little bit. But I want to go back to something that Tom Lee of Fundstrat said to us on the pod about a week and a half ago. It's not something I heard. We talked about it since then a little bit.

He said that he thought the trade war will basically be good for inflation. Now, a lot of folks just thought it was going to be very inflationary, right? And reshoring and input costs going higher and trying to pass through these costs. But he said that if you have consumers pull back on spending, then therefore you will see inflation come down. Now, I

I don't really agree with that. But Tom has obviously been spot on with a whole host of things as it relates to the economy and markets over the last couple of years. You know, to me, that turns into something like you have in China more, that you have deflation to a point where it's not good for the economy. Right. And so that brings me to a trade war that gets to targeting China. Right now, we are only targeting our allies for the most part. So I would worry about a deflationary weakness in the economy globally.

No, and then when he said that, you know, it's interesting because we talked about it in the aftermath of that interview. We went back to him and asked him the question. And now what is also interesting is more and more people have actually started to voice that. And I'm not suggesting they listen to our podcast, but there have been voices out there suggesting similar that,

you know, these tariffs are actually deflationary. And, you know, if you think about it sort of intellectually or intuitively, you know, if prices get to a certain point, you're going to sort of choke off demand and it becomes sort of self-fulfilling in terms of lowering inflation. You know, we'll see. That's a pretty interesting tightrope to walk though. You know, you make things prohibitively, you know, cost prohibitive enough where people no longer buy them. So we'll see. But as you also said,

you know, that speaks to a pretty significant slowdown as well. So it's be careful what you wish for. You know, you might get a handle on inflation by raising prices, but on the flip side of that coin, you're going to cause a pretty significant slowdown in an economy that's basically driven by people plummeting

things. Yeah. And we'll get to some individual names and some sectors in just a few minutes. But when you think about, you know, the tariffs that have been put on, you know, these 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum that went into effect today, you know, when you think about the fact that we import nearly 30% of steel and roughly 80% of aluminum, and you know what's down today, guy? Auto stocks are down in a raging market right now. A lot of tech stuff that gotten hit really hard is up a lot.

So this is going to continue to weigh on industrials. And the other point is, is like you can put these tariffs on and you're going to get retaliation and you're going to go back and forth or the Trump administration, they kind of balk, right? And they pull them back. And then these sorts of threats don't have a lot of teeth. Then if you are a U.S. manufacturer who's been, you know, investing overseas, what is your incentive to

right, to kind of pull back and cause this massive disruption to your business and these expenses, you know, to reshore stuff. If it's just going to be every few years, we're going to go back and forth on this stuff and there's not a lot of teeth to the threats. Yeah. Listen, I think all the points you make are spot on. I think the counter to that will be, you know, there has to be some sort of reset here in the United States, some sort of global reset. You know, basically we've been towing the line for way too long and it's requires us to potentially

endure some short-term pain, although that's not a term that's been used, but in order to get to the other side of this. And in some ways, I don't necessarily disagree. I mean, I think some of the methods are a bit draconian and I wouldn't instill them, but I sort of understand what they're trying to do. And when you hear Secretary...

Treasury Secretary Besson talk about, you know, getting to the other side of something and we've been too reliant on, you know, cheap money and liquidity and those types of things. I happen to agree with him. And he's right to point out that, you know, it might be –

difficult sledding to get to the other side. The question really comes down to in this environment and as conditioned as we've become, how long will people be willing to go through that tough period? And my sense is it's not going to be that long. I mean, the honeymoon periods are seemingly shorter and shorter. So there is some truth behind some of this madness. It's just getting there is going to be the problem. Yeah, I agree with all of that. You and I started the pod on Monday.

you know, saying we agree with Besson, we agree with that messaging. Something has to be done. If we can make it a bipartisan issue that we have to cut the debt and the deficit and get to a place where the spending is not out of control. But it's not something that could be done two years at a time between the midterms. And, you know, if we're going to change administrations every four years, it has to be a commitment. It has to be bipartisan. And, you know, one of the things that I thought was really interesting about the

EU retaliation. They're targeting 26 billion euros of U.S. products. They are targeting specifically Republican-led states, which I think is interesting. Soybeans in Louisiana, stuff like that. And so ultimately, we've been hearing that these House members in red states

They don't want to go back to their districts. They don't want to do these town halls because they're going to get ripped. And especially when you think about Doge and austerity. So, again, it needs to be something that we can take a longer term view. And, you know, Trump said this to the money honey on Sunday on Fox News. He said that the Chinese and you've said this a gazillion times over the last few years are taking austerity.

a hundred year view and we're taking a quarter by quarter view. That for Trump is a very nuanced take. And I mean that sincerely because he usually talks in these big superlatives and the like. And so ultimately, if we agree that something needs to be done, it cannot be done by one party every two years.

no but if you have to and you're right to point that out and i was actually sort of i sort of locked into that because if you think about what he's saying there because this is somebody that historically is like the immediacy of the stock market and wins and losses and everything is basically it becomes very transactional but when you hear him say that you know the chinese take a hundred year view which

By the way, they do. And as you said, that's something we've pointed out a number of times. And we are more in the immediacy camp. Basically, I think what he's saying is, you know, we're going to have to sort of suffer through, as I said earlier, some tough slogs because we want to play the long game. And when you play the long game, you're going to lose a lot of battles to win the war. And

you know, whether he didn't use those words, obviously, but if you think about what he's saying is, you know, we're going to lose some battles to get to the other side of this and it might be painful in doing so. And I think that's why the market reacted in kind earlier this week. And by the way,

i happen to agree with that i mean i'm not you know not that i'm in a line with everything the man says but we do have to lose some battles to win some wars and we're gonna do have to sort of endure some hardships on the back of 25 or 30 years of excess to get to the other side again it comes down to

How long are people willing to do it for? Yeah. And again, you know, use that term temerity before you started using it. I didn't even know what it meant. It's probably a really good SAT word. You know, the question is, do we have the temerity to kind of stick with this? And then, you know, if everything is so politicized in our country, how do you get both sides on board? And that's a much bigger issue and probably way above.

There's an interesting article in the Axios this morning by Felix Salmon, the second great disruption. And he went on to say five years after the coronavirus pandemic turned the world on its head, Donald Trump is doing the same thing. There's a massive geostrategic reconfiguration, an unprecedented flood of

government spending, albeit in Germany, and underneath it all, the hope and possibility that by burning everything down, something better will be able to grow in its place. And then they went on to quote House Speaker Mike Johnson using a billiards analogy in a press conference yesterday to explain the President Trump strategy. It's a bit like the break at the beginning of the game. You hit it as hard as you can.

and is what required to start the process of repairing and restoring the American economy. Thoughts on that? Because, I mean, we kind of just addressed that, but the fact that Mike Johnson, and he's getting his caucus behind this idea, his caucus also includes a lot of folks that don't want to put big tax cuts in place without commensurate sort of

you know, spending cuts, right? And so if you think about Doge, that was meant to kind of appease those folks, but they're not achieving the sort of goals. And we all didn't think that they could achieve the goals that they set out to do. Well, apparently there's some Doge clock that's out there. And according to the clock, and it has all the different metrics on it, you know, the government debt, how much each household is responsible for. But on the bottom of that clock, Doge

Doge savings, according to this clock, and I'm not saying it's accurate or not, is just north of about $100 billion, which if that's true, good for them. And at this pace, as they pointed out, by I think July 26th or something, it'll get us to a trillion dollars. Now, I'm not saying that's going to happen. I'm just saying that's what the clock suggests. I only mentioned that

because yesterday during whatever conference, I think it was during that economic, that business council conference that President Trump was at, he said that Doge savings was half a trillion dollars, which is, you know, according to the clock, that's, you know, 5x in excess of what it currently is. But getting back to your point about what's going on in Europe, it's unprecedented what we're seeing. Now, again,

it's probably some good that will come out of there. I think in some ways these countries do need to sort of pony up and be beholden to their populace and, you know, have...

be strong in terms of what they're trying to do. What I have problems with is when you hear there's an ocean between us and we shouldn't be worrying about what's going on in Europe, because that's the same things we heard in the late 1930s. And that got us obviously into World War II. So again, there are hints of things that I agree with around the surface, around the edges, but the

crux of it, you know, I sort of push back and say, you know, we're going down a dangerous path here. And when you create this protectionist situation in this, you know, every man or woman for him or herself, there are inherent problems that come along with that as well.

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Let's hit some individual sectors and stocks. It's actually a really fascinating opening, Guy. We're 20 minutes into it, and we're already seeing some stuff fade a little bit. When we started the pod, we said the S&P was up like 1.2%. It's cut half of those gains. Let's start with NVIDIA, though, because, you know, GTC, this is their big user conference next week. There's lots of expectations. Jensen Wang, the CEO, is going to give a keynote on March 18th.

19th and that is Tuesday and I don't know if you remember last year do you remember the anticipation for that keynote it was like this was going to be a fed meeting or something like that and Jerome Powell was going to take a presser and we're already hearing about what are some of the new Blackwell chips and what's the path towards Rubin which is the next generation and

How are these chips and data centers gonna be reoriented or not reoriented, but used for autonomous vehicles and a whole host of other things. And you've said this, there's not a better storyteller in America as it comes to, let's say the economy that comes to the economies created around their products and the like. And the stock at its lows yesterday, guy was down 30% from its recent all time highs.

It's trading up about 6% right here. Pull up a chart, people, as you're listening to this. That 6% move looks like a blip after we've seen the stock lose a trillion dollars in market cap over the last few weeks.

All right, so let's try to break this down because you're right to point out the stock is higher today, but it does look like a blip given what we've seen since that January quarter, by the way, when I think the stock traded north of $153 the next day and it closed on the lows. And we basically, outside of a day or two, have never looked back. And here we are now. In terms of the story he tells, he tells an extraordinary story. Last quarter,

what he basically said when margins contracted is, you know, this is just a blip and we'll see a reacceleration of margins in the back half of the year, which by the way, Dan, may be true. Historically though, it's not. And I think you can speak to this. You know, once margins start to deteriorate,

in that sector, in that industry, they typically continued that deceleration. And it's not an indictment of the company at all. And people say, well, look at the numbers. The numbers are, yes, they are staggering, but the stock is rewarded with a multiple that more than encapsulates those staggering numbers. And when margins start to deteriorate, that's sort of the other side of the mountain. And that's when EPS, which looks attractive, becomes expensive. And one of the things that I've said for a while, they're outperforming

earning their revenue stream. And I think as margins start to contract, which what I think will happen, you know, that EPS number, which seems attractive now, won't be nearly as attractive when you sort of look at it in the aggregate. Yeah, no doubt. You know, in days like today, Guy, where it's just

a sea of green on my fact set machine. I often like to see what is red and try to figure out why. So let's just start with one group that I think is really interesting. So if you look at these, you know, telcos, right, the AT&T and the Verizon, they've had great, great runs. They were meant to be defensive, right, while the market was going lower. Yesterday, Verizon spoke to it's kind of a soft guy down after a big run in the stock. They were talking about a competitive environment, that sort of thing.

And look at Verizon today. It was down at 1.8%. That is not something you see too frequently in a name like Verizon. So today it's down 4.5%. So maybe that's a rotation out of defensive. But when you think about, put together what Verizon said. Let's be clear. This is a retailer, right? They depend on consumer spending. And then if you put together what we heard.

out of some of the retailers here. Yesterday was Kohl's, was the disaster du jour. Dix was down a lot. We saw Target. We saw Walmart. We saw Costco. There's a whole host of other names that were really weak. What does that say to you in the interim? Because again, when we heard Delta, and that's the other one, let's just talk about Delta, they were obviously blaming

you know, corporate spending, but that's also a consumer oriented thing too. When you see that sort of shift in consumer demand in such a short period of time, it's not going to bounce back that quickly.

Now, and if you look at the CPI number, when you sort of dissect it, you know, one of the things that dragged it lower were airline fares. So keep that in mind. And you're right about, you know, consumer spending. You know, it's interesting, again, we talk about this. If you watch CNBC or any of the news business networks, they talk about the health of the consumer. And you hear people get paraded, the consumer's in great shape. The reality is

That's not true. And consumer spending, when people get scared, is when consumer spending stops on a dime. And as I've said, and I believe this, but I don't know if I'm right or wrong, you know, consumer confidence is an overlay of the S&P 500. And when you have days when the 6 o'clock news or all the cable news shows lead with the stock market selloff,

That scares people. They might not know why they're scared, but they know something must be happening because the stock market is selling off. And then you have this period of reevaluation. Should we be going on that trip? Should we buy in that car? All those different things come into play. And that's why you see basically consumer sentiment change and decline.

on a dime and that's why you see spending sort of stop on a dime. And I think that's sort of what we're in the midst of now. By the way, I think this administration understands that they realize the importance of the stock market for consumer confidence. And I think at a certain point, which we're probably pretty close to, they're going to do whatever they can to sort of assuage your concerns of people.

The question is, are we in enough motion now? Have we sort of set in motion this move in the stock market that regardless of what pundits or politicians say, it's sort of a foregone conclusion we're going to see continued weakness until we find some sort of

floor in the form of valuation or in the form of something else. Yeah. Let me ask you about that word pundit that you just threw out there. You know, when I started doing CNBC in 2009, I never thought it was going to be something that lasted 15, 16 years. Right. And the show that I started doing options action, it was very specific about trade ideas. Right. We'd kind of talk about Apple reports tomorrow, like how are you going to trade it with the options, blah, blah, blah.

But then as I started doing Fast Money, once you allowed me on that show in 2011 and it took a little time to be accepted, then you start giving all these opinions about stuff on a day-to-day basis. And every once in a while I'd hear from a friend or somebody professionally, oh, Dan's a

pundit on CNBC. And I always thought that like had a negative connotation. How have you taken that word pundit over the years? Well, I think in today's world, it definitely does. I mean, there was a period of time where, you know, that was something that was looked up to. I think that pendulum turned whenever it did over the last decade or so where, you know, pundits become sort of a four letter word. And I sort of understand because I think a lot of people, again,

living in their echo chambers. I mean, there's certain pundits, obviously, they gravitate towards and others they gravitate away from. So I think by definition, if you think about how polarized the country is, punditry or pundits, they're going to resonate with half the country and they're going to sort of insult the other half of the country, regardless of what side of the aisle you're on. So I think that's why it's sort of taken this

turn to be a derogatory one. But I do listen. I mean, I just think that's sort of the that's the world we live in now. You know, people hear it's like Danny Moses says, and it's a line from the Simon and Garfunkel song. People hear what they want to hear and they disregard the rest. Truer now than it's ever been before, Dan. Which is really interesting about CNBC in general. When I think about, you know, cable news in general, it is very divided, as you just mentioned. And I feel like CNBC is probably

other than a few people here and there, you know, hosts or pundits, that sort of thing, it really is right down the middle for the most part. I mean, you and I, we try to keep politics out of most things. And, you know, right now in this administration, it's kind of hard to do that when you think about the lens in which we look at things, markets, the economy, that sort of thing. But it's funny, you know, I listened to...

The guys at Pod Save America, you know Tommy, obviously, and he's got two partners on his podcast, John Lovett and Jon Favreau. They each have like similar sorts of dogs. I've seen them on the internet when they posted pictures. John Lovett's dog is named Pundit.

which I think is kind of funny. You know what I mean? Like he's a, he's a, right. You see what I, you see what he did there, guy. It's pretty funny. Before we get to some strategists and the way they're thinking about their targets that they made Goldman Sachs as an interesting one, let's just hit the banks really quickly. You know, you and I have been remarking how quickly these have gone from

All-time highs in J.P. Morgan in particular, down 18% in a matter of weeks. You would think, I think that's more than it was down during the regional banking crisis in 23, right? And on a day like today where we have the S&P, which is already starting to come in, it's up less than a half a percent. So yesterday, when some of the banks were kind of firming up, the money centers, J.P. Morgan was down the most. I think it was down almost 2% at one point.

What do you think the banks are pricing? And when do you think investors come back into them? Well, the latter part is an interesting, when do they come back? The question is like, why are we seeing this sell-off in banks as, again, as precipitously as we are? And I think it goes back to,

you know, earlier last year when there was a lot of enthusiasm by certain people around the bank sort of anticipating maybe the yield curve starting to move in their favor, potential for a candidate Trump win. All those things sort of came to fruition. And if you think about it, you know, when this when President Trump was elected,

There was an optimism around the country. There's no denying that. I mean, if you just sort of look at the numbers and obviously there was a hope that regulation would be sort of ratcheted back from the draconian regulation during the Biden administration, on top of which would lead to M&A, animal spirits and all those terms that I typically don't use. And I think the banks rallied on the back of that. But now I think people are coming to the realization that regardless of whether or not there's going to be this sort of

unleashing of animal spirits, there's a slowdown in the economy and banks are as cyclical a group as there is. And if the economy does slow in a meaningful way, banks will not be impervious to that. And I think that's what we're seeing, on top of which that M&A hope and dreams

seemingly is getting a little bit of a pushback from this same administration, which I find really interesting. We actually discussed it last night on CNBC's Fast Money. So I think there's this realization that maybe things are not going to be as robust as the market thought, and maybe these names got way ahead of themselves. And by the way,

If you listen to sort of Jamie Dimon, you know, he talks about how expensive his stock is, not with a 200 and something dollar price target, but in terms of some of the metrics that are historically rich. All right. Last thing here. So we had remarked many occasions in Q4 about how Wall Street strategists were tripping over each other, right, as the S&P was kind of notching higher growth.

about 5900 or so on the year. And, you know, to get to 6600 is kind of the average target at the end of this year. Now, part of Q4 was interesting because we had been remarking on many occasions that the EPS expected growth rate for 2025 and the S&P 500 was about 13%.

And it hadn't been coming down. Right. So that maybe that helped you get to a reasonable multiple, which is still way above our men. John Butters over there at FactSet has been telling us it's been way above the five and ten year averages for the last year or so. A lot of folks were explaining it away because of generative AI and the

growth in those names and what it was going to mean for all these other industries. So David Koston at Goldman Sachs, he lowers his 2025 target from 6,500 to 6,200. Again, we are trading right now at 5,600. It's still implying a decent little rally from here. A lot of strategists think that we're going to go lower from here, but then close back towards their highs, which would insinuate a massive rally. Let's say we could

get to 5,500, 5,400, something like that, then you're talking 5,400 to 6,600 by the end of the year. That's a pretty epic rally. Do you think now strategies are going to start tripping over each other to lower their targets and thus lower their EPS estimates in growth for this year? Yeah, I mean, look, maybe the first or the second, but not the last, clearly. I think there's too much optimism around where we potentially could go. But

you know, if you think about it, you know, we could see a significant downdraft in the first half of the year and we could wind us. It wouldn't surprise me to see us wind up north of 6,200 by the end of the year. That's why it's such a difficult game to play because there's nothing linear about what we do. And I think, you know, people will try to make it linear. It's just doesn't, that's not how it works. I mean, you could have three or four months of

carnage in terms of the market and make the entire thing back and more so in the back half of the year. By the way, you've seen it before and we could see it again. So if you're asking me, yes, I think people will start to drop their numbers. Yes, I think there's further room to the downside in the stock market.

But yes, a lot of these optimistic numbers in terms of 6200 to 6600 could be reached by the end of this year for a myriad of different reasons. I want to make one last observation. You know, the day is a half an hour in and we see the S&P up a half a percent. It was up again, 1.2%. And again, this is really early to call.

Today could be one of the most important days in this whole cycle guide because you had that CPI reading that you wanted. Let's just say PPI is fairly benign. Let's say we can discount Friday's consumer confidence number. That's not going to be great if you think about it measuring last month, that sort of thing. If we can't hold these gains today,

It's really bad. And I'll tell you why. One of the things is we got to 30 VIX. We didn't see correlations go to one. There were certain pockets of prior leaders that were leading to the downside, right? But right now we have some of those defensive sectors, pharma, telco, consumer staples. They're down meaningfully. If we see tech give it up, if we see banks give it up, if we see retailers give it up, I don't think you see money move back into staples. I think you see whole

wholesale selling, which could be setting up for a really nasty rest of the week. So thoughts really quickly on that. Yeah, I think the importance of today can't be understated or overstated, I should say. I think it's really important to see how this market closed given basically a week of sell-offs. And I think people were looking for this number as potential relief and

They got it in the short term. And by the way, by the end of the day, they might have gotten it as well. But to point out the fact that you've probably, as we're sitting here right now, you're talking about an S&P that's probably given up about 50 or so handles to the downside over the course of the half hour we've been doing this show. So it's clearly something to watch. And despite the fact that the VIX is lower today, you still have a VIX north of 25, which suggests...

Volatility is here and it's embedded and it's going to be here for a while, which is why the sell-offs are more dramatic and the subsequent rallies are equally so because, again, in this environment, and as you know very well, when people are short volatility, they wind up chasing their tail. So today is a very important day.

No doubt. Guys, check out Danny Moses with James Atkin. It is in the podcast store under the On The Tape podcast. If you're not following that feed, go follow it. Every Wednesday, he has a drop. He has had some great conversations. Michael Lewis last week. Guy is sitting down with

Peter Bookvar of Bleakly Advisors today. Peter is a friend of the pod. We love his work and he's very insightful. That's going to drop tomorrow morning in the Risk Reversal podcast feed. And then you and I are sitting down with Vincent Daniel tomorrow afternoon of Seawolf Capital. And that's going to drop on Friday. So we've got a lot of great stuff going on. We got Market Call at 11 a.m. So check that out. Guy, great pod. See you tomorrow. Check you later, people. Thanks.