Small Cap Stocks Rip - How to Profit
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A warm welcome to the monday on the tape podcast. I'm guy domi, always joined by Elizabeth te. Young Thomas SHE have so far. E, Y.

how are you? I am fantastic. How are you both?

That's E, Y, T. And of course, danny moses drops in from time to time. Always a pleasure to have danny join us.

Danny, how are you? I'm doing great.

Happy monday. People, yeah. Well, and happy veteran's day if I can say happy and you know, you hear from but we would be remiss if we didn't mention that as well.

Thank you all who serve. Thank you for your service. So here we are, danes moses, on this monday, november eleven.

So the elections in the review meeting in the first thing, but I look at because I know this incoming administration is going to look at IT, is china's trade surplus. So it's near a record one trillion doll. Trade surplus now means a lot of different things.

But my instinct s suggest on the surface, the incoming administration will see this and they'll be exercise by IT. Because, of course, they have a surprise. We don't. So thoughts on that as we get going.

yeah. So obviously, they are exporting more than they're importing and their own markets are weak in terms of demand. And they exported everything and they flood the markets with their products.

And it's basically every country they have a surplus with. But the biggest one is obviously with us. And so there's repercussions to that because they have the ability to devalue their currency.

potentially. Any point and exacerbate that are making even worse. So what IT isn't issue.

And one of the thing that got lost kind of the new cycle there has been the salt typhoon cyber attack, which is gone to start wearing his head again. What does that mean? U.

S. Diplomats believe that china came in and infiltrated our router system via cisco potentially. And they're been getting all this information on our defense stuff. And every political has been targeted. We know that already. So something else to keep in the back your mind, I think for minute for me, things getting heated up perspective because you're going to hear more about .

this salt typhoon guy. No data. No, is you. I see this. And I can just imagine what's going on behind closed doors again, whether there's justification for not whether that the math works, whether or not it's an equal equitable type of relationship, we have the chinese people will see that and say we're getting ripped off. So I only bring that up because I think when I see that number, there is gonna a renewed or A A higher, I think, volume in terms of the trade turfs with china and how we are getting ripped off, whether we are or not.

First of all, I think just this report in of itself is like target practice on trade for the incoming administration. What are all the different things that we can target? What can we go after? And more proof that we need to do something about IT.

I'm saying this from their perspective. I think that's probably the narrative that's going to come out so far. What's been threatened or what's been slowed is up to sixty percent tera S.

I think that would be difficult to really actually implement that. And I think everybody understands that, that would be inflationary. Pret quickly to our economy to danny's point though, and I said this last week, C, M, B, C, IT was a risky thing to say and a gutsy thing to say.

But to danny point, they have control over their currency more so than we have control over hours. They have control over their economy more so than we have control over hours. And we cannot underestimate their ability and willingness to stimulate to devalue their currency.

And also, we can't underestimate the fact that they're backed into a corner right now because their own economy is weak. So there may be a situation where, yes, I think the volatility of this heats up, the rhetorical c around IT heats up. There's going to be all kinds of threats thrown in either direction, and that could go on for months, but they may have to do some negotiating at some point in order to settle out that their economy doesn't get to unduly punished.

Yeah, it's interesting because I don't at me of them off, but I think that was August of two thousand and fifteen, dani, when we first heard in earnest that the chinese were devaluing their currency. And by february of the following year, he saw pretty signing itself off in global equities. Now that's just one the precipice of that. But to you, both your points standing that has consequences of china, deval, absolutely has consequences on a global scale.

Yeah, there is economic warfare than this real warfare. And you you can exact pain by doing both. And so the in a position, obviously, was going with taiwan, kind of daring us to come to the rescue of taiwan if they were to do something.

So there's lot to play here, I think from liz's point about devaluing their currency that I can't mentioned here a few minutes ago, that is financial warfare, right? They could actually do something there. So you have counties, have countries like india, which are obviously concerned as well because if the rupee, if they continue devalue against their currency, that hurts them also. So there's lots of reinventions here globally, and IT has relocations for you know both stock Prices, commodity Prices and everything else. Certainly somebody to .

keeping I on what do you think this does for the gold trade? And we've talked about gold so much, and i'm sure you have thoughts onest. If now we shift our attention from, let's say, off of the japanese n and onto the chinese currency, what happens to gold here, knowing that the chinese central bank has been the biggest buyer of gold in recent months? I think that's .

a great question I appreciate. Ask me that I think one of the reasons theyve been buying IT in the way they've been doing over the last three years is an anticipation of probably what we're seeing. And I might suggesting there are some great suit sayers there, but I do think they play the long game and I think they sort of realized some of the things they were looking at.

I think they looked across the global realized central banks sort of running a mock, and they're going to take steps to sort of combat that and get in front of IT. So quite Frankly, I think they are buying of gold sort of gives them the flexibility to do exactly what both you and Daniel talking about. And to answer your a question specifically, I think that just gives more created to the trade itself.

So what are the main reasons you can't really run too far away from the school trade regardless of whether or not you have these downtown? Like we saw post election day when gold had a huge downdraft. We saw the same thing on August fifth.

When you see risk off situations across a swath of things, gold is not sort of IT insulated from that. And sometimes when you see allocation of funds in equities, sometimes it's going to come out of the commodity markets, specifically the gold trade. But in my opinion, I think both those times have been somewhat short sided, although I understand IT and I think he just lends itself to exactly what all three of us have been talking about, danny, for the last few years.

One of the thing is that bitcoins now up to one point six trillion. Talk about that. Well, crp tos, about three trillion. If you try to assess the gold market, you will get a number between seventeen and eighteen trillion.

And so I think part of the cell of and gold also has to do with money being allocated or relocated maybe from gold into cyp to believing that it's on much more stable footing. Now I mean, doge coins at forty two billion at this point. So you're seeing love of the ship coins rally as well. So I think that crypto continues to steal on the margin a little bit of golds thunder.

Well, let's talk about crypt dollars with there a number of different things going on. But I think this latest run is all in the back of what pears to be now a republican sweep of the house, the senate and obviously the presidential election as well. Former president trump, president elect trump is obviously changed his tune when IT comes to cyp du, he is going to be very crypt of friendly.

Think the market is obviously taking a cue from that. Does that tell you anything? But that, that is just sort of a post election trader is something more going on.

I don't think there's much more than that going on. I would cause people on the script trait really just going up because we think that the incoming administration is gonna crypto friendly. Does that mean that it's been under pressure only because things haven't been crypto friendly?

I don't think that that's the answer here. I think what's been happening to cypher is that IT had this really strong correlation with appetite for tech stocks, and you've got a lot of overlap between tech investors and crypto investors. And I had been a risk on risk off trade.

Now it's trading on something else. It's trading on perhaps lower regulations and maybe just more activity in the gypt to market, more things, more fungible reasons to use IT. But I don't think that it's something especially when IT goes up this quickly, don't think it's something that's going to last all that long. Now that doesn't mean that we have to have another crypto winter, but I think you have to be careful buying an asset based on policies that you think are coming in the next year too because we just don't know that yet.

Yeah I mean, you talk about animal spirits. It's manifesting itself across a swap of the crypt to world, and i'll see how long at last. You know, my concern is this becomes bit of a game of musical chairs.

And when the music stops, I think people going to be sort of looking at each other. So again, I am not a cyp to enthusiast. Many people forgan more than I will ever know, but I also have seen things like this before. And you know not to suggest this can be significantly higher year from now, but I think if there is a downdraft, I think is be somewhat violent. With that said, I think some of that may take excuse of what we're in here this week in the form of consumer Price.

And on wednesday, as with an ppi on thursday, which is either going to basically give create ents to what the fed has been doing now for the last year, year and a half or it's going to say, you know what, they have more work to do. I'm still of the belief that Prices are sticky. I think inflation, although not the problem that there was a couple of years ago, is still a problem.

I also think it's very interesting to hear some of the commentary around these numbers. You know, given what we heard from the pal as we can, given the fact. He steadfast in his belief that he's going to fill out his term. So this is one of the more interesting weeks on the inflation frontless.

Yeah, I tweed right after that fed presser, the polls said my name is no, my number is no. So he's not leaving as long as he can help IT, at least not before his term is up just to prove everybody for what's coming on CPI. So you're over year.

The headline number expected to come in at two point six percent on wednesday, that two points above where IT was last time. I came in at two point four percent last time. So that's not moving in the right direction, although nothing alarming if that is what happens.

And then core CPI expected to stay steady at three point three percent. One of the things I want to point out, and I wrote this in my fed now after the meeting on thursday, is that dream poll also pointed out, they obviously act P C E. We all know that that they are preferred measure.

But what we constantly look at is the twelve months number, the year over year number. If you look at IT on a three or six months basis and annualized, that were actually quite close to target. So that's why you keep hearing these messages from him that they are gaining confidence that we're moving sustainably toward two percent because they're actually looking at some measures that we don't really even talk about in the market.

That's not to say that CPI doesn't matter. CPI matters for sentiment. I think CPI matters for what people are going to do with their spending, but IT doesn't necessarily matter as much to the fed.

So I don't know that we're going to see a ton of movement if things lets say things come in buying on expectations on wednesday, C P. I. I don't know that we're going to see a ton of movement in rate cut expectations for this year because we're still more focused on that pce data as is jone pole.

Then what is your sense here? What's going on, on the inflation front? But more importantly, this interest rate move because then we've talked about IT lives than I ve talked about IT.

We've talked about IT collectively. We've discussed the move since the middle of september. Think we almost got to four and a half percent and to ten years.

I think we picked up to four forty eight of on that mistake. We've pulled back significantly. I think we're probably either side of four, three, two ish now. But with that said, it's been a pretty dramatic move higher in which I think for a lot of people is counter intuit. I think I have a handle on what's going out of curious what you think.

So just to use this comments on no and no, no, I said on the on the tape on thursday that he pulled the wolf of wall street when he says i'm not leaving but actually I have a new term for and you the wolf of k street, right? The walls of k street playing the home.

I just got that that's IT that's done.

No one can take that from me. So the wolf of k street, please feel free to use that later. I'm sure you'll be on cnbc, you want to quote. But listen, I think that to follow through in the markets late week after rates kind of Spike tire on the tenure and pulled back in when they started to pull back in the rates, I think he was a Green signal for equities to feel like, okay, we're okay right now.

I feel like towards the end of this year, analysts ge chance of rates on the longer and moving sustainability higher if they do move the same to be higher from here. I think as a result of people's concern that inflation policies, debt growing, deficit growing, that's going to be an issue. So I think we're kind of in this narrow band here.

It's really hard to say because at some point, obviously, credit spreads are so tight, you need credit spreads to widen to really slow the economy down. So it's like the horse in the car and not sure which will happen first. But again, if treasury is rally and yields come along and is IT a flight to safety, is the economic slowdown what is IT? Because I don't think it's policy.

So again, I can predict IT. So is good to talk about because IT, one of the most important inputs for so many different securities in the world, right? Where's a ten you're going to be? And I think that we're seeing wage expectations have gone back up again.

I believe inflation expectations started to stop going lower and crew from not mistaken. And that's what I think I would want to watch, is what the expectations for inflation are rather than the current readings that we're gonna en. Now I think that's more important.

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I'm not suggesting this is the best constructed etf, but the one that everybody seems to look at is the I wm. And today, this monday, as we're sitting here, the rustle two thousand and tf made a new fifty two week right around two forty two, which mirrors the same high that we saw this time of year in twenty twenty one. We have been talking about that U.

N. I. For a long, long time now. The need for the rustle of small caps to sort of take out that prior high, I think a lot of IT is predicated on this hope of obviously renewed growth or united states.

The fact that maybe the fed has their back in terms of interest rates, although we had that conversation, and the hope that in underperforming asset group is going to start to catch up to everything else. So what is your sensor? What's going on? Is this finally what people be wanting for in the .

lens of the small caps? Well, I mean, I think IT is sniffed prior high. So IT IT has now happened.

We attempted IT. Think I at seven times in one of our last shows. So we're finally there.

Now one of the things I would say we had earlier in the year, earlier in twenty twenty four, this is the Julia time frame. We saw a period with small caps gapped higher, right? They up very sharply.

Everybody got excited. This was gonna the moment, and then they sort of sideways, aged for a few days, and then they gapped lower, filled in that gap and try to find their way again. And then they sort of applauded IT along.

So this was, again, a gap higher. I would caution people about that. Now that's not me saying that this isn't the time when they're actually going to do IT. I would just say, in a very short term, always be mindful of that gap, careful about when something goes up that much.

Is this the time when they are gonna break out? IT could be IT really could be if they beat that prior high, you probably expect that there's another, let's say, five percent, ten percent after that just fit based on pure momenta and based on money coming out of other assets and going into things as a chasing trade. And I think small, absolutely one of the beneficiaries of that, if you want something a little bit safer, something a little bit more diversified so that you can sleep at night, sort of allocation, you can look at something even like the equal waited S M.

P, where you've got some exposure to smaller cap names are spreading. You're exposure across sectors in a different way. You can also look at an asset class that would be called Smith cap, which is somewhere between small and midd cap.

Usually the market cap of those companies on between two and a half billion and let's call IT, five and a half or six billion, there are a little bit safer. They've at least graduated out of that small cap of a non profitable segment. So this is definitely something to watch blessing, i'll say about this in somebody smaller cap names more in mid cap as some of these smaller cap names, you find a lot of financials in there. And obviously, we know financials have been trading really well since trump was reelected. So you're gonna see a lot of correlation between small and make cap names and what's happening in the final .

year two thousand. Before we go to dani, I am looking at the k and you know that is a regional bank etf trading other side of sixty seven dollars. I think the fifty two week, I is effectively sixty seven dollars.

But the all time high dani in the kary was made in january of twenty twenty two. So now have a lot of things. Making an all time I am in this Carry is still probably, I don't know, eighteen to twenty percent of its prior high. But to eliza's point, if you believe in a small cap standing almost by definition, you have to believe, I think, in the small and regional banks thought on that. Well.

back to this small caps in general, I mean, I think it's pretty simple, more and a less regulation oversight, which is not nessy a great thing for small companies. You should be hearing to the correct laws of of security laws. And i'm not accusing anyone of do anything wrong.

I'm just saying in general is kind of a little bit of a wild's west mentality. Now I think it's off to the races as IT relates to the banks. Again, follow on the ema theme. I will see there and potentially being able to race capital for some of smaller companies in being a player there. You I think it's it's just by now and ask questions later.

And people were using these stocks, I think, is shorts versus maybe longer on some other things, maybe even the large cap banks I know both have already here, but we've seen a substantial difference in the rAiling of the Carry versus the exceler. There's so many names out there and sectors that were either underserved, ned. And when they start to move like this, fund managers have to chase because of their underside. Regional banks, they get to get to the benchmark so they need together. So I think that's also what this is as well as I think fu N D managers participating more.

So I mean, obviously, a lot of what this is, is I think you're to your point and you the lack I should say, the lack of regulation, but the less active regulation clearly place to the benefit of these banks. And I think the market is taking excuse from that. And obviously, ma as well.

And you know you're seeing IT, quite Frankly. I mean, if you look at some of these private equity names, for example, car law group is were sitting here, has been making a new multi year high. Now that's been an underperformer for quite some time, but there are all the names as well, blackstone.

So the market is clearly excited about the potential for less overreach. I guess, with all that said, somebody that's not all that excited about what's going on and only say that through, again, the prism of what he's doing in terms of his cash position. Alister with is warn buffer t, whose now cash holdings of birch hathaway is a record three hundred and twenty five or so billion dollars.

We talk about the buffet indicator all the time, and I want to say for the thousand time, we are not suggesting you trade on indicators like that. But we would be permissive ly point out that that's now north of two hundred and two percent. And his sort of thresh hold where he gets concerned to starkly is about one hundred and thirty percent or so. So the buffer indicator flashing red, berger hathaways raising cash. Thoughts on that.

One of our in buff fits most famous quotes is something along the lines of the market, is a mechanism designed to transfer money from the impatient to the patient. And I don't no warm buffer. Personally, I don't talk to him on a regular basis, but he strikes me as a man who sticks to his kitting and he sticks to his principles. So if the buffet indicator or something along that vein is one of his big principles, he's trading in line with what he he has always believed, and he's put that pile of cash into treasury bills.

Now as rates of risk is probably an OK place to sit for a little while, the question that continues to come up and I I don't know how we would ever know the answers to this until IT happens, is, is he stockpiling cash because he's on his way out? Is he stockpiling cash because he's ready to buy something? Or he stuck piling cash because he's nervous about something ominous to come? I don't think he's gonna wer any of that directly, but that's going the speculation as what continues to be the big speculation.

I think sure health way will do fine in either event. In any of those events, I think that he's set up a pretty good succession plan for himself. Now will there will be volatility if and when he does. Finally, the part, of course, but this question of you know, why is he keeping all of this cash around? Why has he built up more cash by selling some of the biggest positions that he has an equity is you have to assume that there's got to be some reason other than he is just preparing to depart and he could be returning .

capital and form of a divided at some point. And I would also note that he's not buying his own stock either, so kind of all lines up so he could return to dividend. But to liz's point, he might be setting up to buy something. But again, and I think he sees a lot of attractive investment ideas out there right now, these Prices now we say that accidents reporting this week, correct.

And I talked about i'm not saying he's going to go and buy more accidental, but who knows if that thing were to get to a level right? You can see him increasing his position, something like that and you think is been left for dead. So to me.

well, quick about accident on list, but you don't need to apply here. But I mean, since he announced a stake in the stock, and I think he was probably a couple years or so ago, I think he's a must. I want to say now north of the thirty percent holding in the company, don't at me if from off by a percent two, but quite Frankly, X A couple of moves to maybe seventy three or so.

This stock is not done a damn thing since his announcement. And his average Price, not that that matters to him, is probably significantly higher than the current fifty one dollars that is trading at, which is fascinating because historically, when he makes bets like this, the stock acts and kind. But that's neither here and or there.

But eliza th brought up an interesting point, the reasons why a lives. Have you ever seen the movie? This is bit of a rhetorical question, godfather too. No, which is which is troubling for a mere of different reasons. But there is a scene in the Daniel familiar with, and hopefully at some point later today is with, you will familiarized yourself with as well.

When Michael corleone, I is in cuba sitting with ham and roth, and they're having a birthday party for ham, and you know how man is enjoying his birthday, but he also opining that the properties and have a lot of time left. But Michael knows that human world thinks he's gonna and live forever. He actually makes reference to that and the fact that he's been dying of the same heart attack for the last twenty years.

I say that not to suggest that warn buffer thinks he's gona live forever, he doesn't. But my instinct to suggest he does things today the same way he probably did to fifteen to twenty thirty years old years ago. I think he's just a bit of a role follower, and I think really age comes into the equation.

so. As much as people want to say, you know what, he's doing IT to set up the next person who's going to succeed him. I just think he's doing IT because he's playing by the same set of world's danity that he's played by his entire investing career.

Yes, he's going to be opportunities and he's longer term. And if he misses a little bit run in the market, he's fine with that. And obviously something like accidents only, only fifty billion market cap and I know what the total enterprise values, but he could put tens in twenty thirties to work.

Potential an idea. So I just think he's waiting and listen. He's getting paid to wait. T yields are still decent. And so, you know, everyone's jealous of the arsenal that he's built there.

So somebody, by the way, that made a pretty big bet along the lines of warm buffer and access patrol. It's like IT or not is elon mosque. And I mention that because if we're sitting here today is making a new fifty two week high, a multi year high, we're still nowhere near the prior all time high.

I think the stock traded to, I want to say if i'm that mistake in november of twenty, twenty one, but we get in close. And you know this is now gotten through the trillion market cap. He made that bet. The bet is paying off. I guess the question is, in your opinion, how long is at last .

I said last week is no longer treating on fundamental. I've been out of got out of IT when you realized that that was the case because how do you value something that of trades on non fundamental? He based, as i've said this all long, he lined himself with trump, I believe, for one reason, one reason only, and that was to protect himself from all the agencies which are becoming after him.

That includes the european agencies using jd. Evans now to threaten to plot of nato unless he leave musk alone. Other stuff who does musin dories today for? Send a majority later.

Rick Scott. Why would he be? Rick Scott? Why does that benefit him? Because got controls.

All the space ex launched is in flat a because member state of florida took over control from NASA of these launch. So there's always a method to his baLance. What he doesn't listening took a gamble and IT paid off.

I just find IT very ironic. He was built by environmentally. His company was built by with these tax credits, regulate credits gone on.

Now he slipped. It's for himself in one reason only, but I do fear this guy coming in. Forget about, forget about the stock, about the stock.

You should be very concerned as a citizen that the person that has committed security fought the person's, been accused of vary lawsuits everywhere is now gone to come in and give advice on certain agencies on how they should be run. That that makes me nervous and that's aside from the fact of my feelings about him or the company. So yes, congrats to him. On, on, on. A gamble paid off, but i'm not buying on his nonsense.

So but before we get out here, we do have a lot of feed speak this week and I think your help on thursday is actually speaking as well. Um thoughts on the importance, if any, in terms what we can hear we going to hear from lord logan this week I think the same Louis fed president Alberto muslim speaks jeff Smith from kinda of city speaks. So it's a typical week because they seem to talk over and over again. But I think it's a new york fed week where giant blimps is delivering the opening reMarks.

I think that palace speech on thursday will be the only one that really has potential to move markets, but largely because he has a chance to react to inflation numbers that came in the day before. So if he says anything that seemingly changes his tune from last week, that has the potential. Other than that, I don't think that this is really high risk for fed speakers.

I think right now, if less there, there was any indication the market doesn't gonna react much because are expecting that the feed sort of stays steady as SHE goes, at least through the end of the year. And right now, the expectations are for about sixty five to seventy percent chance of a cut, another cut in december of twenty five basis points and then perhaps a pause in january. So I think that would take something pretty big to move those expectations materially. But we should listen to what poll says on thursday, uh.

on C. P, I. A lot. This week, for sure, IT thing's going to start. I would imagine we approach thanksgiving, start the thin nat a little bit.

But there are still some things out there and thinking in terms of the market and geopolitically, we have to pay attention to. But this was an excEllent primer to the week. So dane moses, thank you, was always eliza of the Young Thomas of so far. Thank you will see you later today for market call.

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