Gene Munster: Nvidia Earnings Preview, Apple's $500 Billion AI Investment & Microsoft's Computing Conundrum
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Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I'm Dan Nathan, joined by Gene Munster. He is the managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. Gene, welcome back to the pod. Always great to be here, Dan. All right. I really appreciate you. You gave us a great rundown into the MAG-7 earnings. That was a couple of weeks ago. Here we are. We got the last one here. It's in video Wednesday after the close. You and I are recording this Monday into the close here. We just thought we'd kind of hit some of the

I don't know, the puts and takes and what you think is going to move this stock on Thursday. Also want to get some headlines or want to hit some headlines here. One was that Apple suggested they may spend half a trillion dollars on a build out here in the U.S. as it relates to AI infrastructure. Talk about what that means. 20,000 jobs. It looks like they're just really trying to appease the Trump administration here. That 500 billion seems like a nice round number. We keep getting thrown out for four years.

And there is an analyst report out this morning talking about Microsoft canceling some AI data center leases. And, you know, this might tie, Gene, into something my good friend Mike Wilson over at Morgan Stanley, he is the head equity strategist over there. He was talking about this AI adopter theme. And we'll get into that because I think that's going to be a big story as we get to Q1 earnings. I can't believe we're already talking about Q1 earnings. But we're

what we see out of companies and the productivity and the like i think there's a yeah we're two-thirds the way through dan yeah no i know yeah we are two-thirds through this is when the semiconductor companies used to have their mid-quarter updates remember every quarter it would be you know the first week of the third month that sort of thing they don't do that anymore

Let's start with the Apple news. This is a company that you follow for a long time. When I heard this number, it seemed like a big number, 500 billion. They're adding 20,000 jobs. Who knows if that ever happens here? Give our listener a sense, Gene, of just how important Apple on their own silicon building servers for their private cloud. Specifically, we know that security, security, security, this is a big theme with Apple. I just didn't know they were in the server business.

They're increasingly getting into the infrastructure business, but I just want to put some context around that $500 billion and what does it actually mean. And they're saying they're investing $500 billion, investing in quotes that includes everything from sales and marketing to hardware purchases, data centers to employees.

$500 billion over the next four years. And as a starting point is back in 2021, they talked about spending $430 million over four years, over five years. And so basically, if you look at the change in what they said in 2021 versus what they said today, it's a $39 billion per year step up. Now,

Before we get to what this means and how aggressively is Apple on the accelerator here on this, it's worth noting that if there was no announcement today, naturally that rate would be increasing. Of the $39 billion in incremental sales,

Probably $20 billion would have happened even without this Trump announcement today. And so when you think about what is the true step up here, my sense is it's probably $20 billion, $19, $20 billion per year, which is still material, right?

And you mentioned those 20,000 employees or those 20,000 new jobs. They also get rid of jobs as well. And so think of it probably as 10,000 incremental jobs. And when you kind of layer that into and think of an average fully loaded cost per this type of person, probably $300,000 a year.

what you get to is probably of that, of that 19, $20 billion, probably just over 10 billion is going to be related to this hardware piece that you're talking about. And so 10 billion is still real money, but when you, when you start to kind of,

look at each number more specifically, I think you get to the conclusion that yes, they are definitely stepping up their spending, what they've said in the past. It is not a crazy step up like we saw with the other hyperscalers after they reported their December quarter. Right. So this is a company, and I know you know the financials as well.

operating free cash flow per year over $100 billion, right? So if you think about that, they have not spent so far the way the hyperscalers have done, but now as they go into this next phase of really deploying Apple intelligence and possibly making it intelligent for the first time in a year since they launched it, it seems like that's a probably good use of capital, $20 billion incremental a year to get that right. Because again, I don't think you had that up

rate super cycle this year that they or some analysts or some investors had expected because of Apple intelligence. I think exactly right. I think what investors, the reason why the stock is outperforming the NASDAQ today on this news is that this investors want Apple to spend more on hardware. They want them to create this infrastructure piece that

basically takes AI more into their destiny. And so far, it's kind of in the hands of other people at this point. And so I think that as they continue to build out their intelligent cloud, as they continue to hire people to get it to work, as I agree with you, where it's today is a light year away from where it needs to be in terms of to get mass adoption, people really wanting Apple intelligence. And so I think that's what the market is suggesting is they want Apple to spend more. We're starting to see that even if

$10 billion is, it's not $500 billion a year, but $10 billion a year is real money. And I think an indication of a shift in terms of how Apple is viewing its hardware build-out. Does this have anything to do with, you know, Apple looking across at Microsoft and the relationship that they have with OpenAI? You know, obviously Apple says that they are going to be using OpenAI technology to build out Apple intelligence. If you look at, there's definitely been a bit of a schism between Microsoft and OpenAI as Microsoft looks forward

around for obviously some other technology to base some of their products and services on because it doesn't seem like the Apple way, I guess, to kind of lean into someone else's tech and not have a whole heck of a lot of control. Absolutely. Yeah. Not their way. And I think,

That, again, is why I think the market likes this, is they want Apple to have more control of that. I mean, this is really like the substance of what most companies are going to be built on is what their AI strategy is longer term. In Apple's case, you have a hardware piece around it, which they're going to obviously continue to be unique about.

But, you know, getting this right and getting this AI piece more into their control. They did after they announced OpenAI was going to be their premier partner in a session just after that. They talked about adding other AI partners and they mentioned Gemini by name. And that's not available at this point. You can't make the switch for Apple intelligence from using Gemini.

open AI to Gemini, but eventually you'll be able to do that. And so I think they're doing little things on the edges, but more importantly, it's just taking control of, I think, how these models work. And I think you're going to see them build more small language models that are just optimized for a specific device. Like for example, the Apple watch, you're going to see more of that. And that makes perfect sense when you think about some of these open source models that you have now. I mean, I wonder if, if you think about Apple iOS is like really the

key at least in north america you know like the way that most people access meta applications it seems like cozying up there a little bit and figuring out how llama might help solve some of these problems you also have google as we know with that search relationship with app

Apple is massive. Then you think about deep seek and really kind of the shot across the bow that that put on a lot of these Silicon Valley companies who spent hundreds of billions of dollars building their own models. It seems like Apple has a lot of options here. You know what I mean? Trying to figure this thing out. And, you know, they waited to a point until a lot of these models failed.

feel a bit commoditized. And then when you talk about building smaller models on top of that, it seems like that might've been the smart way to go. Now, the last thing I'll just say in this, I'd love to get your take on all that is that, you know, perplexity, that's what they do. They have this interface and then you can choose for the most part, you can choose grok is on there right now. You can choose llama, you can choose, you know, so they're all there. I just,

I think you and I talked about this last year. It was like Apple should have just bought a perplexity and given them that sort of at least, it's kind of maybe just like an outer layer of what they could have been doing right off the bat, getting that behavior, that iOS user comfortable with that behavior and then working it into the hardware. Does that make some sense?

Totally makes sense. And, you know, I think in retrospect, Apple, probably if they could rewind the clock three years, they'd have done a lot of things different when it came to AI. My sense is they probably would have their own large language model.

I think the big picture here is that they have recognized that I think the reason why they probably missed that, and I think they're catching up quickly, but I think the initial was this heavy focus on kind of the hardware and the software piece and missing that AI side. And so the good news for Apple is that they're going to continue to maintain that hardware piece. People's love of how

the phone works and how it just tied into so many different things. I mean, basically people are standardizing half of the U.S. standardized their lives on an iPhone and they're going to capitalize on that and be able to start to advance Apple intelligence AI features through that. And so

So that's the key. That's why the App Store was so successful is that they had a great piece of hardware, a great piece of glass, a great touchscreen that ultimately enabled the computer to change, the phone to change to a computer in your pocket. I think they will also ride that wave and work to be done. I think that the product has not where it needs to be today, but I'm confident that they're going to get there and capitalize on those active devices.

2.3 billion active devices yeah and i wonder if they go about the same you know as they did with the app stores like okay maybe they didn't build the model but that technology exists and if they have a distribution mechanism then you're gonna have all these developers that's exactly what's going on you know what i mean and then they just kind of take their toll um but again it it will need to be built into the hardware because that is what's going to be ubiquitous across all of the you know you know

you know, mobile devices all over the world. You were on the sell side for a long time. And I'd love to get a sense of like how this happens. This analyst over at Callen gets a piece of news. He writes about it on Friday. It's that Microsoft is canceling leases for AI data centers. Um, so that note goes out. Um,

It looks really juicy. There's a lot of good stuff in there, especially when you think about the supply-demand dynamics. And we keep hearing that there's this kind of capacity constraint, right? If there's ever a demand fall-off, which counters everything that we've been hearing throughout this whole earnings season, right? We keep hearing, despite the results in Microsoft that weren't going up meaningfully, or Amazon, or Google, we keep hearing about demand outstripping supply.

So then Microsoft comes out and says, we are not doing that. They have to put out a separate note suggesting that. Where do you fall out on this? Because, again, we know that they built out their own data centers. They were leasing, obviously, other data centers to make sure that they had capacity. At some point, this headline is going to be true. And I'm just curious whether you think it's starting to be true right now or like there's got to be something to this. You know what I mean? Like it's not like this guy just made this up.

For starters, when I saw the news and the report, I just applauded the analysts for really great feet on the street research. That's the stuff that just gave me a lot of juice with my former job. And so that's hard to get, those data points are hard to get. The second thought that I had is, how does it map up relative to what Microsoft has said? And this dynamic between, are what you're hearing, does it really map to reality? I was just...

sharing a story i've never shared it but as an analyst at one point we were covering a company and uh the uh they canceled uh uh a conference call that i had the cfo canceled the conference call with i had i was traveling internationally and when you at the end of a quarter when i on a cfo would cancel a call probably wasn't necessarily a good sign

And I remember thinking like, they're probably going to miss their quarter. They're probably going to miss their quarter. And I remember having a difficult time because I was traveling internationally to try to get through to our Salesforce. And it turns out the next morning, they didn't miss the quarter. They got acquired. I think that, you know, there is this lesson that that stuck with me over the last 20 plus years of just like when you pick up a data point, you know, is there something else? Could you be finding what you are found? Could it be accurate, but also,

and not consistent with the bigger picture here. And I think that this is probably an accurate data point that they're picking up. I think it was well vetted, but I think it's probably something where you don't have the full picture. They can't see the full picture. And I think the full picture was pretty clear from Microsoft when they reported the quarter that they're spending more on CapEx and they've been clear about the importance of AI and haven't backed off on this. And so

I think that at some point, yes, the CapEx spend is going to slow. I don't know what the levers are between these data points and what Microsoft is doing, but I ultimately believe that the CapEx investment is going to surprise people this year. We can talk about the impact on NVIDIA and what to expect there, but I think just overall, I think there's going to be more spending on CapEx, this AI trade, than what most people

investors think in 2025. Yeah, we'll get to Nvidia in one second. But you know, one of the themes, I guess, in this Q4 earnings period was, you know, reiteration of those big capex numbers, but slightly less than expected revenue growth, right? And that combination for Google, Microsoft and Amazon

sent the stocks lower, right? And so this brings me to the note that Mike Wilson had. Again, he is a market strategist, but he's drilling down on this theme. And he was on our podcast a couple of weeks ago, and we actually talked about this. So he's talking about the AI adopter theme. And he said, companies giving concrete numerical examples of efficiency gains tied to AI have outperformed by four and a half percent. Forward net margin revisions have

also been stronger for these companies. As discussed, we see the AI adoption theme as an important structural catalyst for the services area of the market that we favor, financial, software, media and entertainment, and consumer services. So you and I have talked about this a little bit. It's like once we get by this infrastructure build, right, and we get these models that are commoditized,

then they have to sell them, right? They need these end markets to find use cases. So to me, that could be a very positive thing for the market. You hear about the concentration that we have. These top 10 names make 30% of the S&P. They make 50% of the NASDAQ 100.

And people keep talking about, okay, so NVIDIA and all these names are basically not performed this year. The only one that's up is meta right now. But if you get a broadening out of this theme to these other verticals, that's how the market can continue to chug along. Does that make some sense to you?

Totally makes sense. And I'm in the camp that we're going to get a broadening of the market. I'm optimistic of that. We still have a couple of years left where the market can broaden out and ultimately end in this spectacular bursting of a bubble to get spectacular. You got to go up meaningfully from where we're at today in terms of where the different benchmarks are. And I think we're going to get that. And for that exact reason that you talked about, I would point out too, that to get from here to there, uh,

There is a piece of it, which is you just have to believe. And that doesn't make a lot of investors confident. I mean, you've outlined some expectations about how this can have an improvement, but still the substance of what these products can do in our lives is largely theory today. And I think that that's the opportunity. That's part of the reason why I think there is still upside in the market is I think once

start to see it's probably isn't until 2026, but here in 2025 about these new tools that are going to be coming in 2026 and 2026 when they actually come out and consumers appreciate those tools and businesses adopt them and pay more for them. I think that's when margins start to improve and kind of it broadens out just like internet and mobile has become the fabric of most companies. Of course, that's going to be the same case with AI and impact their bottom line. And so I

optimistic still despite all the negative headlines about how the market has reacted more recently related to more economic data points. I'm still confident in where this trade plays out over the next couple of years. Yeah. And again, taking a one week snapshot is not probably a useful sort of endeavor trying to figure this out, especially a theme that you were looking at multiple years. But one of the examples I think is really important because it was an example used

you know, in the last, I want to say three to six months or so was Walmart. And they had this acceleration in e-commerce. And, you know, I think it got to like 22% in the last quarter, which was up, you know, a few percentage points. The stock looks like a tech stock. Right. And it did. And it doubled over the last, you know, since the start of 2024. Well, they come out with a report last week.

and the guidance was kind of soft. The e-commerce growth was less than expected. Not much, but a little less than expected. It decelerated a little bit. And the stock hasn't seen an uptick since Wednesday's close, right? So it's three consecutive down days. It's down about 11%. So

I bring that up is there are pitfalls. There are a lot of crowded trades out there, right? And so here was one of the early use cases from logistics to fulfillment, to customer service, to things that were helping to accelerate, you know, that e-commerce growth and, you know, investors it's, you know, you know, the, the thing it's a escalator up elevator down. And we're seeing that right now. So I,

Again, I just wanted to bring that up there. Last week, the price action on Friday was not great. The NASDAQ was down a little more than 2%. The S&P was down 1.7%. Monday, we opened up 50 basis points. We were quickly down on the day. As we're recording this at nearly 3 o'clock, it's basically unchanged with the NASDAQ down about 0.5%. A lot of the names that led to the downside on Friday are down again today.

All of those, fatefully, except meta, are down on the year, which I think is interesting. And some down a lot. Tesla's down 17%. Broadcom's down 7.5%. Google's down 5%. Microsoft's down 4%. So I guess my question to you is like,

Last week, was that just a little bit of a moose boosh to what we could see? It doesn't mean like there's going to be a crash in these sorts of names, but when investors start to disregard what companies just said, where they're telling a good story, I don't think any of these companies had a downbeat view about what they were investing, like how they were getting the return on that, where they see their businesses and the like here. The macro wasn't even that cautious, but investors hit the sell button.

Yeah, they're not buying, the investors aren't buying what the companies are telling us today. And I think that for the markets to keep going up, of course, investors need to get behind this and to regain some of that confidence. And so why are investors, what is it about investors that are seen through this or what's the issue that they're seeing? I think

There has been a lot of this started kind of with deep seek. And as I mentioned, some of those macro data points, but the basic theme is that this kind of that the second derivative is not going to is going to slow essentially. And so instead of these companies growing at 15 or 20%, they're going to grow at 18 or instead of growing at 40%, it's going to grow at 30. So I understand all that. And that is,

a rational investor read on what's going on because everything that I'm excited about, I think the hardware trade is going to be better this year. I think software in 2026 and beyond, it's still this do you believe game. And I think when things start to sell off, it really tests investors' confidence in a theme. And I think you're seeing some of the fraying on the edges. I

I believe that as we get through the March quarter and get those prints, we can talk about NVIDIA. I think that we're going to ultimately, the investors will regain that confidence. One last piece is when I think about this bullish outlook that I have the next couple of years, the one piece that I can short circuit it is if we do go into recession, if there is something around the economy that can, for all the factors that can cause us to slow down, that does

uh slow down capital going into these companies whether they're the big companies late stage companies innovation slows and that has a negative impact on the psychology of investors and so that's the one piece that concerns me about this it's less about investors tired about the trade right now that that enthusiasm is going to return it's more about the broader market uh

taking extracting some capital out which slows the whole flywheel down yeah so interesting again on that ai adoption theme and maybe this is the broadening out right here this is your old sector too look at this netflix on the year is up 12 percent pinterest is up 27 spotify's up 35 percent cart uh instacart's up 21 percent uh doordash up 16 and a half percent uber up 27 so these are all companies that are going to be

adopting if they can. Pinterest was trying to tell us, I mean, they're all telling a story in some way, shape or form. So this is that logical progression when you got the picks and the shovels, right? These folks that were doing the infrastructure build and then the other companies that are customers, right? Of the hyperscalers and the like. And so maybe that's what's being reflected in the stock market if that makes some sense.

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podcast today. The big kahuna, Wednesday after the close, NVIDIA reports 10% implied move. Can't wait. I know you can't. In either direction here. So we saw the results out of, you know, 50% of their revenue, right? It's predominantly the hyperscalers and meta and the like. And let's go back to how we started the show, the Stargate announcement.

the Apple announcement now. I mean, there's been probably a half a dozen others. The deep seek thing, a lot of folks initially were pretty worried about that. You and I talked about it on that Monday. You were actually optimistic about it. You said, listen, that's great for them. It probably wasn't $6 million. They innovated in some ways without access to some of the highest end GPUs. They didn't spend $100 billion, but they certainly didn't spend six. And I think a lot of folks just kind of came to the,

conclusion that this is great for innovation, but we're going to continue to move forward on the spend and the plan that we have. So talk to me just a little bit about here we are three weeks later, almost a month from that deep seek news. What do you think the kind of shakeout is? Or do we have to wait for the guidance that we get out of NVIDIA on Wednesday afternoon? I think we got the substance of

what we were looking for, and I think it actually plays a little bit negative towards how the stock is gonna react after the quarter, because I think the confidence from the leading edge companies, as you mentioned, was overwhelmingly positive. Just to recap, it is before deep seek, so call it a day before deep seek, the expectations were that the Mag7 was gonna increase their CapEx spending

by 22%. After, so fast forward to after they reported their December quarter, that number reached just above 40%. So pretty dramatic step up. And NVIDIA recovered some of that. And the question that I'm asking is like, what can they say? I mean, that's about as...

of an endorsement as you can get. We have this talk about maybe Microsoft slowing down. So maybe that's actually a positive for NVIDIA, a little bit of an injection of, you know, some skepticism is healthy, but like as an investor, our funds are invested in NVIDIA like crazy.

we're expecting a lot of positive commentary. And so that what's that incremental positive commentary. And I think that, that it could come on. There's a specific question on the guidance is just, you know, how long is it going to take for them to get to supply demand equilibrium around Blackwell? And so previously they had talked about it in the first half of,

calendar 25. If that ends up saying a little bit later in calendar 25, I think investors would view that as just overwhelmingly positive. And I think the stock would be up. But I think that that commentary about how long they're going to be supply constrained around Blackwell is going to be a huge factor in terms of how the stock trades after the print. If you look at Hopper and since you had the

of that and what the uptake was. I know it was a very different market here. Jensen Wong said that demand was insane. I think this was a few months ago, but that also came after some delays and some bugs and all those sorts of headlines here. And so when I look at data center, obviously a huge part of their business, I look at expectations for fiscal 2026 and

for earnings and sales, I mean, it's north of 50%. Maybe it's 51 and 53. - Just for fiscal 26. - For fiscal 26. And I say to myself, you know what? 30 times earnings, 16 times sales is not great, but you know what I mean? It's kind of working its way, which you had said most of 2024, it's growing into that valuation.

What sort of guidance would it take for investors to say, okay, that 53% revenue growth is 47 probably, and we sell the stock off that? You know what I mean? I'm just curious what sort of deceleration or coming in below, let's say where consensus is, is the sort of thing where we get the stock moving back towards that deep seek low, which is pretty shocking. It filled in that whole gap over the last few weeks.

So I think that investors are, you know, the near term plays into some of it, but I think they're more trying to figure out actually what calendar 26 looks like. And the street's looking for low 20%, I think earnings growth, maybe mid 20% top line growth. And I mean, off of huge numbers, this has gone from a $20 billion company to expected to be like $230 billion in calendar 26. I mean,

It might sound easy to say you grow at 25%, but it's really hard when you've come up of that kind of growth. So the answer to your question is like, what's the stock going to trade on? I think it's this commentary. Obviously, the near-term commentary impacts the longer term. They're going to have to raise numbers more.

I think that the commentary around that Blackwell and how long are they going to be supply constrained, it impacts how people think about calendar 26. And so if they end up saying it's going to be the back half or the middle of the year before we get to supply-demand equilibrium there, then investors will say that means revenue is getting pushed. I mean, they've got plenty of demand here. Revenue is going to get pushed into calendar 26.

still 25 is going to be a good year then i think that would be viewed as a positive so uh as strange as it sounds i think that this commentary around blackwell and how long it's going to be in supply constrained is going to have a big impact about how the stock trades after the print yeah don't you think it's a little too early to kind of get a sense for calendar 26 at this point yeah it is but the

I agree it is, but investors have seen, I think that's what happened with DeepSeek, is this fear that it's going to end tomorrow. And that's why you saw that down 17% day. I believe that's why we saw this. And so as a shareholder in NVIDIA, my concern is that I know the party's going to end. I know it's going to end, I think it's probably 27. When I think about party ending, I think about growth rates more like 10, 15%.

And so I just want to make sure that I'm right, that our thesis is right, that this is going to be a good year for CapEx spend, and then that's going to play forward into next year. So I agree, it's impossible to tell. But what investors, I think what NVIDIA investors are just thinking about is we've seen these hardware trades go boom and bust forever.

Are we at a point where we're going to bust in calendar 25 and in the early 26? And if, if let's put it this way, let me say it a slightly different way. If the street got some sense that calendar that 2025 was going to be a blowout success, but they're going to miss the first quarter of 26, the stock would be down. And so I think that this confidence in 2026 is a big piece to having them multiple expand.

Yeah, I mean, it's kind of hard for me to, you know, kind of get a sense about the multiple expanding when you look at what's going on with gross margins, right? So a year ago in Q4, it was 76.7%. This year, it's supposed to be 73.5 in Q4. Now that's been coming down. The Q1,

of this fiscal year was 79% gross margins, then it was 76%, then it was 75%. Maybe it comes in at 73%. Next year, it's supposed to be 73 and a half across the board. So my point is, if you start seeing margins come in weaker than expecting,

Maybe it's pricing. Maybe it's less demand. I mean, there's a whole host of sort of things. Don't you think that's kind of the huge impediment to a multiple expanding, especially when you have this year-over-year deceleration? It's still pretty good. I mean, for this coming year, again, 50% plus expected earnings and sales. I just think there's a lot more potential negatives to come out of this call in the guidance than there are positives. The ability for them to guide to a level that would take this stock

back to new all-time highs just doesn't seem, I don't know what that is out there right now. On the margin side, that has been a near-term headwind and they've got to kind of keep it in line with guidance. I think that if they just printed down margin from where they were a year ago, I think that the market would say that's what we generally expected.

If it slips a little bit lower than the 72, that would be a problem. So I agree that you never want to see margins slip. The stock will be down if margins slip. I believe that the bigger question though is as long as they can keep margins and those are still great margins, as long as they can keep margins great and keep the top line growing. I still think that this is largely a top line story. So my view is that

You got to hold margins in there. And then you have to give investors some confidence that next year they're going to grow at 30%, basically. That's the number in my head that I think they can grow at next year. And I mentioned the streets at 20% or 25%. I think that top line piece is really important to us. It is truly astounding. The year that GPT 3.5 came out, 22, right? We saw...

This company had $27 billion in revenue, and this year is expected to be $130-ish. And next year, to your point, $200 billion. I have never seen anything like that. It's spectacular. I mean, that's concerning, too. And we talk about the quarter. I think that there's a lot of good news injected around this company in the last couple weeks, and the stock really hasn't reacted that much around it.

So I don't know what incrementally is going to come out of the call. Again, I'm focused on that black ball. Yeah, I guess to me, it's just like I said, you had that down 17% move. I think investors kind of showed their hand about how quickly they're willing to exit this trade. That said, that filling in that whole gap

over the last two and a half weeks or so also tells you that people are looking for an opportunity to buy the stock. So again, we covered some of the big metrics. I think this is going to trade off what that Q1 guidance is, at least in the near term. And I suspect you'll see folks shooting first, asking questions later. I don't mean like this is going to be a bloodbath based on a mild, you know what I mean, miss to Q1 guidance. But

I just don't... I'm hard-pressed to see at this stage of the game the sort of guidance they could give to get the stock moving back towards all-time highs, but we'll see. So...

I think it probably trades off after the quarter. And then as data points come in throughout the quarter from the hyperscalers, from companies raising money to buy NVIDIA chips, I think as those data points start to come in, I think the stock will move higher as we progress through the April quarter. All right, fair enough. Well, hopefully you'll come back really soon, Gene, and we'll talk about NVIDIA, what they had to say and everything like that. So it's been a really interesting year on this whole trade in a way. I know a lot of folks would like to see

some sort of bloodletting and take out a lot of the euphoria. And when I say that, you know, a bunch of these names down 20%, you don't have to go too far back to remember when, you know, NVIDIA into the summer from its highs to its lows in August was down 30% or something like that. So again, the notion that these stocks can't meaningfully correct, I think the difference though, you know, for some is that how quick those corrections have been, you know what I mean? And so I think when the fundamental news changes, you're not going to see them come back that quickly.

but who knows gene monster deep water i appreciate you being here man thank you