Closing Bell Overtime: Politics in Silicon Valley 11/04/24
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What's next for amErica the morning after breaking election results, critical insight from campaign insiders, how voters are thinking about the economy workbox wednesday is special time. Five A M R C N B C.

that bell Marks the end of regulation S M P global ring in the closing valve in new ork exchange areas. Capital CoOperation, doing the honors. That bag is the next section session on election.

E, for the sector's utilities, a big loser. Energy, big winner. Technology, about flat down. S, N, P, dag, all losing ground, but small caps going with gains at the score cut on water street. But we stay late, but going to over time.

I'm john ford with Morgan, and we have got such a big hour of earnings results ahead, headlined by pantin N, X, P semi conductors, along with wind, clever clipsed and .

more plus two ways the election could impact your a portfolio venture capitals bravely task ways in on silicon valley's rising influence and how tech and crypto o could be affected and reim James policy analyst mills will be with us to talk about how the White house result and the makeup of congress could change the market narrow.

But I as we await today's earning results, let's bring in the spoke investment group cofounder paul hickey and cob asi letter editor and chief adam coates. Adam, good to have you. Paul, good to have you.

Adams markets, the S M, P. Five hundred hung in there above fifty seven hundred. You think that boats? Well, we gain in six thousand.

I think. So I think we're maintaining our call that we're heading to six thousand four year. And I think regardless of what happens tomorrow with the election, we're heading higher.

I mean, if you look at the data, historical speaking, eighty three percent of election years have had positive returns overall, with around eighty percent in election day being positive after election day. It's around seventy percent positive from there to year and with an average gain about four percent. So you put that on where we are now and that puts us right around six thousand. I think it's it's gonna viewed more as i'd be risking event and a reason to keep buying. And right now, we're not fighting the trend.

We could use some d risking just over. And I even just talking about stocks there. Paul painted eer and NXP among the named reporting current tears and expensive high fire, high bar NXP tied to the slug ish auto industry. What do we learn, you think, from the way investors react here?

So I think if you I mean, that obviously depends on the results to come in the reaction. But uh, you know you look at plentier as a stock where the evaluation is pretty rich here, no trades like a hundred times earnings, but then you the stock has been such a high performing growing so much, but all street sentiment towards the stock is actually very weak. There's only four buys on the stock, ten holds and seven and seven cells.

And I think the average Price targets about thirty percent below where we are now. So these types of stocks, you know, plentier has the best mouse trap of these enterprise software companies. Uh, they are growing.

They have exposure to the government side and to and growing, you know, very fast on the commercial side. And I think these companies know they are always criticized for their excessive valuations, but you never get these types of socks at cheap valuations. I think as far as N X P goes, sema was talking earlier in the last show about how they have a very, very exposed automotive of which has been very weak. So I think if you can get any sort of positive reaction in that stock from results that are unlikely to be very positive, uh, that would show a an underline bid in the market.

Here you have to see what auto means for clever and clifts too, which we're gona get here in just a few moments. But we have win results. Those are out teza. Rur has the numbers first cantata.

Yeah, more than you're seeing the stock dropping here when resorts has missed on earnings at ninety cents suggested per share verses the consensus estimate of a dollar one, revenues for the quarter came in at one point six nine billion, just shy of the one point seven three billion the street was expecting.

Adjusted property editor comes in life five hundred thirty eight million versus the street account consensus estimate of A A little bit more than that. okay. So only boston has beat here on estimates.

The board has now authorized as well nearly three quarters of a billion lion dollars and buybacks, bringing the total to a billion dollars on the call. I think we're likely to hear a focus on how much the business is changing in macao from VIP to premium mass and mass. We saw room rates this quarter, reflecting notable drop in the average daily room rate.

And in los vegas, not only were the casino numbers softer than last year, but the same bad luck that hit some of wind's neighbors on this trip apparently hit the tables and the slots that wind to the square. I had no idea that luck was contains the stock down two and a thirty percent in after hours trading. Guys.

right. ConTessa burr, thank you. Ah so adam, i'm going to come back to you because I think one of the most you just talked to A D risking, we're heading into this election. I think one of the most interesting y moves in the market today was the fact that we saw treasury IELTS tick lower IT doesn't m to be there is some d risking in the bond market.

We have talked a lot about the so called trump trade, given the eye a pole that we saw, that I think surprised a lot of people over the weekend for what polls are worth. And in this day and age, how much is that affecting the bond market? How much to stocks take their q from treasuries moving forward, a particularly post election.

So we've had two big drivers here. I think. One has been the fat all year for the last couple of years actually.

And then more recently, you started to see as trumps odds of winning the election kind of went up in prediction markets in the D J. T stock itself, the truck media soc, you saw treasury odille IT moved up in a straight line with those odds. And then when they paired back, we now we're trying to see treasury yielders pair, baca little about, which is interesting.

I think regardless, again, of what happens and this being viewed as a divisa event, I think attention also shifts back to the fed after the election. And right now we went from an effect that had two fifty basis point right cuts Price in before under here to now people call for maybe one twenty five basic point cut, maybe two, we think two twenty five cuts. And even in in the fed fund futures markets, you're seeing a rising you know ten fifteen percent chance of maybe not even interest rate cut this week and obviously silent overwhelming majority saying twenty five cut.

But I think now we're starting to see fed expectations are kind of tapping out a little bit on the hockey and pulling back. And I think as that happened to see more strengthened bonds in the bond trade, which has been just hated for the last months and a half, is is very overdue for a bounce. So we're actually bullish a bounce here.

okay? We've got more earnings out. Pontier results have crossed the tape. It's a beat. And the big race for the AI software company, earnings of ten cents, adJusting pressure, that was a penny Better than expectations, revenue seven hundred and twenty six million. That was also a beat, a thirty percent year over year pa.

Forecasting q four revenue seven hundred seven hundred sixty seven to seven hundred seventy one, a million dollars that higher than anas estimates, adJusting free cash flow in excess of a billion dollars for the full year twenty twenty four U. S. Commercial revenue raised upwards of six hundred and eighty seven million dollars that represents a growth rate of at least to fifty percent.

So for the quarter specifically, this is A U. S. story. U. S.

Government of forty percent year over year to three hundred and twenty million dollars. U. S.

Commercial revenue of fifty four percent year, year two, one hundred and seventy nine million dollars. One hundred and four deals over a million dollars close in the quarter. Customer account of thirty nine percent year year.

All I might add with almost no marketing or sales team, I spoke to CEO and cofer alex car p says the results show that the value in AI is in the management of large language models, as opposed to the creation of them that could the winners and A I will be powered by polenta. And the losers will read analyst notes in his shareholder letter carps saying, quote, this is the software century, and we intend to take the entire market. So I asked how the plans to do that car, pointing to the to software driven with hardware dominated dominated military environment.

The case in point maven, which is deployed in the middle east on the commercial side, saying any vertical with complex Operations is where they're seeing adoption, hospitals, manufacturing, logistics, to name a few. Carp saying, quote, what I want you to tell people is we need to invest even more in the government space and an industry and implementing A I that is actually changing our enterprise, because this is how we make amErica even stronger, and there is no real alternative to us. He says he could be called almost U.

S, A, I. That quote, our bias on this is so differentiated from the market, although apparently people, silicon valley are starting to understand this, but it's just giving a structural advantage to amErica first. In our last second, you can see this on the battle field.

You see IT in us industry. The inverse of this, you see IT in the sluggers, lack of perception and general malays in continent europe. That is a tale of two worlds, the AI driven worlds and the AI rejecting.

So you take a look at shares of pontier. They're popping right now. They're up eleven percent. The bar was high here. The stocks up over one hundred and forty percent this year. It's up more than five hundred and eighty percent from late twenty, twenty two lows of six dollars a share and add, am I going to go back you on this one because this has been a retail darling. But I know baby talks about IT is software company, software enterprise. In some ways, that almost reminds me of invidia because NVIDIA has been growing into its evaluation and in some ways, analysts are having a hard time wrapping their arms around how quickly is growing into evaluation, at least at some in the case of last year. Pounder seems to be a very similar dynamic.

at least right now. I mean, look, you're back to thirty percent year, your revenue girl. If you just said that, I think that was that was a golden number for the market. And I think you're in video, like he said, is actually getting cheaper on a ford multiple basis as IT goes off.

It's it's honestly cheaper now than IT was three years ago on a foreign ltl basis, which incredible that just how quickly the companies growing now you have paintings, which is kind of taking the AI trend but not looking at from the hardware perspective and the chip perspective. But how can you implement that into companies and governments and everything from that, that we're used day to day. I think this is the first company that's really able to do that successfully and and command the premium that, that we're seeing in that stock. And based on the markets reaction, I think I can keep going higher here.

Alright, I don't cobs I from the basic y letter and power hicky from the spoken western group. Thank you. Well, him's and hers earnings are now out ranting. Go as has those .

members render a john yeah b on the top in bottom line, really a staggering beat here. E, P, S, coming in well above expectation and thirty two cents versus four sense, which is was expected. The street high was calling for ten cents.

So again, a staging beat their revenues also coming in ahead of estimates. And thank you for guidance also coming in ahead. Look, I pulled a quote from the CFO in the press released really highlighting the fact that this growth is beyond what we're seeing just in the G L P E one weight loss drugs, right?

Because there has been so much focused there, he says subscriber growth, excluding contributions from our compound to G L P one solutions, increase forty percent year over year benefits from improving brand awareness. And he goes on to say a personalization initiatives. So obviously, a story here that goes beyond just the glp, you won't wait loss impact, but one that will continue to follow. Shares up now two percent were up as much as nine percent earlier in the train.

Right, right and go. Mh, thank you. As you're talking, no shares reversing and moving to a one percent game. We've got clive and clifts earnings out as well. Piece has those for us.

Pepper Morgan, all the stock is in the red here. Revenue coming in at four point five seven billion. That was of the four point seven and seven a billion that analysts we're looking for. The company also reported a fifty two cent loss that includes several items.

Now IT is unclear if the number is comparable to the twenty seven cent loss at analysts were looking for adjust that evita was one hundred and twenty four million and dollars, while analysts pulled by l seg, we're looking for one hundred and seventy four million. The company said that weaker demand and pricing drove tighter margins, leading the company to temporarily idle one of its blast furnace, adding that its high exposure to automotive meant it's been more affected than its competitors. Clyst say that he expects demand to rebound in twenty twenty five, supported by economic and political factors. The stock now down four and a half percent.

Morgan, alright, because they did just close that stelco acquisition as well. Pepper Stevens, thank you. Let's turn out a mike sand toy. He's here at cnbc headquarters and he has a technical look at stocks at this monumental week of market. Moving news gets underway.

mike? Yes, let's start actually with the bomb market. You were just talking. This is many rally in treasury's.

Take a look at a two year, a chart of the ten year treasury yelled wanted the highlights from the ultimate highs back in twenty twenty two. Look at that. That's pretty much oh, baying barely.

This started downturn line. It's been in place for a while. So over a blast that ahead of this, have more people saying, oh no, we have a break out in yield. So it's at this point remaining contained in this range. Pull backward sort of had to you ve found some buyers with that soft jobs report on friday.

Take a look at the dow Jones industrial average and is fifty day moving average is kind of pulled back into ah this somewhat neutral spot here along its inter media term trend line. In fact, the S M P five hundred, the ecole E S N P, also all pretty much retreating to that fifty days. So the uptrend is attack.

But there has been a little bit of backing away as we head into this sort of highly consequential events over the next couple of days. Finally, want to take a look at a long term relationship between the door Jones industrial average and the S M P five funders. This is the deal divided by the sp.

essentially. And you see where we were recently doubt at historic depth of under of the double versus the S M P. You go back to the nineteen, nineteen ninety nine right there.

That's when the dow first put in intel and microsoft november of that year. That was the first nazzal stocks to go. And IT was seen as the doubt trying to of chase relevance from the booming text tax that was four months before the bubble peaked, by the way.

And you see the diaw performance when the overall market is weakened. Bear markets. And you see here as we get in video added as well as human wasama, a little bit of an attempt to to fresh up and in live in the dab because of that under performance versus the S M P. And of course, they ask that guys.

of course, that's where i'm going to a hone in on this conversation with you, mike, because sharing William had to pop one and halperin ent today based on that news in video, finished up, actually hired to. But I just think back to G, I think back to honeywell and some of these other, when they got the boot from the doll in hindi, that ended up being somewhat of the trough for some of those names that IT face chAllenges. And I wonder whether IT signal something similar potentially for intel? Yes.

IT definitely could. The history says there are times when the ejection from the dough is essentially a capitulating sign and maybe that it's gotten washed out. And if the company itself has got A A, A decent future, then yes, I can be a by signal.

I guess I say don't rely on that one hundred percent. I go back to when I first started covering the markets and west house and whole worth were in the dal. So you don't want to buy other one of those once they got got booted out.

But in general, there's a little bit of a contrary and pattern to those that get included and excluded. Even more recently, a twenty twenty sales force goes in x on, goes out x on, massively outperform the market over that time. And sales forces done very little.

You forgot about my government reward. micon. Thank you. N, X, P, semiconductor earrings are out. That stock and head in our sema mode has the number, ma. And john.

the story is that third quarter revenue came in line with expectations and earnings were a two b three dollars and forty five cents. But its guidance is disappointing here, three dollars in a three point one x excuse me, billion.

At the midpoint vers the three point three six estimate, IT sees its fourth quarter adjust E, P, S, in the three dollar and thirteen range, which is well below what while he was expecting, other revenues, interesting ly enough, are in line. And that a one thing that investors were a little bit worry about giving the messaging from some of the other auto makers and some icon doctors that service the auto industry. This is also where N X P makes about fifty six percent of its revenue.

A guidance. Some comments here from its C E O, curt servers, who says guidance for the third quarter reflects broader macro weakness, especially in europe and the amErica is more gonna join when the earnings call starts will look for the commentary on china that has actually been a bright spot for in a lot of these some american doctors. Back to you.

Alright, seema mody, thank you. We're just getting started on overtime. Up next, much more on today's earnings action. Analyst read fill joins us with his first cake on is big after hours jump as currently trading at record levels. If this pop holes, well.

thirteen and five percent well, real state developed Howard cues holdings just out with three quarter results as well, reporting revenue of three hundred twenty seven million dollars, a fourty three percent year over year, earning per share of a lot ninety five. We're not comparing estimates because of thin coverage.

The company, C O, S, going to join us later in the show to talk about the quarter, how the election and this we fed decision could swear the real state market over time will be right back. Welcome back to over time, real state development and management firm Howard cuz holdings reporting earnings few moments ago. Shares are climbing up more than four percent and over time journey now, an exclusive interview before the earnings call is hired.

You CEO David o. Riley, David, great to have you. So last quarter, you said runs for you were stable in a tough environment of one percent. How do they look .

now even Better? I can tell you that our business is never perform Better than we'll we saw on the third water here across all of our business lines going to rent in a recurring in a while. We were up eight percent year of year.

Light by office and multi family, which has been two areas, has been largely under scrutiny from the national media and for research annalists. We've never sold more land in the history. The company that we did, this passport ter to home builders as single family housing man continues to remain strong. And just over my shoulder here in ward village on a wow O O O O, we're closing on Victoria place, realizing seven hundred and sixty million dollars of revenue at a twenty seven and twenty percent margin this month.

So that is really an an interesting standout in this market. How much of that is because it's a why? Because it's a tower, because it's brand new. And the luxury consumer in that narrow segment is one that continues that money to spend.

Well, over the past ten years, we've sold over six billion dollars of condos right here at world village, and we've launched our first condo tower in the William, just north of fused in. And we've seen remarkable success there. We have units here that are focused on workforce housing, which are those that are first time buyers and make no more than one hundred and twenty five percent of the leading income, and those are entirely sold out.

We have third road tower, second road first role. So it's not just a luxury buyer. There's a massive housing shortfall not just here in a while, but tire across our entire country and we're selling that land. The home builders are building the condemnation to meet that demand.

So David, make IT the fact that treasury yells and with them, mortgage rates have actually been moving higher since the fed began cutting rates last month or two months ago. I guess now IT has become .

IT a little bit of a surprise, but it's actually cruel to our benefit as that gap between existing mortgage tes in place and where you can finance today creates that lock in effect, which is put more, more pressure on meeting that housing demand with new construction. And because we hold the precious resource that home builders need to meet that new construction, we've seen an increase in Price aker across our portfolio. And like I said, we had a record number Baker sold the home builders this quarter as they need that raw material to meet that increase in demand. Sale supply is not coming on the market, so it's going to have to be a accomplish for new construction.

So bill, actually pursuing square owns A A big chunk of your company. They put out of a regulatory filing disclosing that they're expLoring taking the company private. Your response? Oh, I can't .

comment on what bill action is thinking.

He was the former chairman of the company, was an incredible constructive chairman, helping the guide the revision of this company for its entire existence. But what he's thinking, and what his next steps are you to have as bill?

okay. David rally, thanks for joining us.

Have to do IT a definitely .

the best live shot of the day. Little jealous are right. We have a news's ler er on dollar trees .

you like the of a life shop for me. We do have leadership transaction here going on a dolly. The CEO rick drilling has step down that was effective as of yesterday, november third.

He is citing in this uh, health reasons for stepping down. In the meantime, COO a Michael creating is going to be replacing him in an intern basis as CEO, and they are going to be looking for a new permanent CEO. Based on that, they are also reaffirming their third quarter outlook here had adverting shares are up about five per side. Guys.

all right, Steve. Thank you. It's time after A, C, M, B, C news update with birtha coomes birtha.

Hey, how are you, Morgan? The U. S. Cyber security chief, jane, yesterday said today that the twenty twenty four election cycle has seen unprecedented levels of this information from foreign adversaries, but the surge has not impacted the election.

The U. S. Intelligence community has warned that russia and other adversity are part of a broader effort to undermine election integrity. A japanese nuclear reactor that restarted last week for the first time in thirteen years after the fu khama disaster has shut down again.

The plant Operator said the reactor shut down on sunday due to a glitch with the equipment, and the utility said there were no concerns of a radiation release into the environment, but did not give a new date for a restart. And san antonio spurs had coach greg pop, of which will be out definitely after suffering what they say was a health issue over the weekend. According to multiple reports, assistant coach mitch Johnson will fill in for the time being. Team has not shared what the health issue is for pop IT, who is in his twenty sixth season as the spur s had coach. We wish him could help like a really john birth.

Thank you coming up. Venture capital is bravely task on VS rising role in american politics and how the outcome of the election could impact everything from tech policy to cyp to be right back. Welcome back to over time, with more than seventy percent of S M P, five hundred companies having reported earnings already mix and told returns to the look at how this season compared to recent quarters.

my yeah joy will look to think about us. Big U. S. Companies is the majority of them always succeeds. Earnings expectations, as this blue line shows right here, it's rare that you don't have a majority exceeding the publish forecasts of the contents. S, but it's a matter of the degree of that beat is.

So you see, it's actually kind of pulled back from recent quarters, roughly seventy percent coming into today of S P. five. Five hundred companies have beat on the bottom line. Top line is you can see the beat rate is actually erode a little bit.

So while it's not in A A bad in aggregate, earning season is probably a little bit less than we might have hope for considering that estate did come down over the course of the quarter. This can turn, of course, with the remainder of the companies yet to report. But IT does show you that there's a been a little bit less incremental reason to get excited about the fundamental picture even if if in general, things are attacking in the right direction.

I guess overall, the trend doesn't look that bad. We're looking over a twenty years face. But over that last bit of time, you're it's generally heading up on the E P. S side, at least not on it's it's heading up.

although in the latest quarter, you had that reset lower. So I think that's what we've been struggling within. Obviously, the markets hung in there. We're not too far from highs, but you have had a little bit of a back as the earning season has matured.

All right, mike santi, thank you. What next venture capitalists bradlee tusk, and how his industry could be impacted by the outcome of tomorrow's presidential election and why more vcs have been getting involved in elections in general cycle?

Welcome back. The presidential election is tomorrow. Both candidates getting master support from silicon valley is the tech industry ways what is at stake.

Will john is now is broadly tusk cope and task adventure partners is also the author of the book vote with your phone, in which he makes the case for mobile voting. He also, he also said he is endorsing vice president Harris broadly. It's great to have you on.

And before I start getting into elections, outcomes and policy implications, I do wanna take a step back and ask a really basic question about the fact that he does seem like venta capitalists have been much more open. Public big money raises this election cycle more more than we've seen in the past. Whether that is in fact the case. And if so, what is signals about what is in fact state at at state for this election?

It's probably representative of two weeks. The first is part of this is some really high profile people got involved and obviously the most important when there are zeo on mosque. Um while he's a founder and not A B C, he's connected to the eco system in every way and so everything he does does gets a lot of attention. But the other thing is that I think you know VC are realizing that politics matter, regulation matters and whose in charge and the and issues that they care about has a big impact on the future of their portfolio anties. And if you want those companies be treated fairly, um you need to see at the table and that comes from getting involved.

So let's let's do play this game about election outcomes and what that's going to mean for policy implications because, yes, there's some differences between these two candidates, but there's also potentially some similarities ties. And so I wonder what that means from an trust and point for tech companies when you have a current administration in which Harris a part of that's been a very aggressive about that, but some of those same suits actually started under the last administration with trump. So what that looks like uh, what IT also means when you're talking about two candidates that are arguably both gna be hawkish on canada and I mean china, excuse me, in a different tangling.

So yeah.

didn't tangling of tech supply chains at setting up? Yeah well, look.

I think on any trust you maybe helped to sort to split up with the two different cut categories. The first category is specifically going after big tech, so google, amazon, apple mea, those companies. And I think that there is a lot of support on both sides.

The I le for doing that. And we seen James Evans say that he actually supporting an icon is doing there. And the other group in this world, I think republicans and a lot of democrats also really have a problem is the general ftc and take the p torr's murders and acquisitions overall.

Um and the reason why that's a problem is IT has had a drilling effect a kind of across a the ecosystem until as a result, you're seeing less companies get funded, less new company formation. All that means less innovation. And so if companies think that the acquisition is going to get blocked by the ftc and that there's no way that will happen, then there just less M N A activity.

And most tech exists as much as we love IPO or not IP s or M N A. And so I think that IT is important that at the very least, the tender, a desk he see changed around that. I think it's pretty likely that I was under trump.

IT probably worked under Harris too。 I think that he has certainly you just showed garden support from a bunch of prominent uvc who will have influences with her. Um and so um you know I think that we're probably in for Better treatment either.

Why rather when I was coming up in silicon valley reporting about twenty five years ago, the ecosystem tech chips, telecoms, to stay out of politics because of, I think the history is a government contractor and and be a government research area. IT seems to me that, that has just sort of shifted perhaps forever because you've got elements on either side of the political aisle now in tech trying to counterbaLance each other. Where do you think we go from here?

Yeah, it's a great question. So the first thing is not just the whole world has got more political last twenty five years and the aven social media has automates impossible for lots of people to stay out of politics. We used to be able to avoid that.

You guys have obviously conversations all the time on N C, N, B C about, you know, how corporation should deal with different social coalition. So this has become the new norm of, and yeah I think that ultimately the role socon valley has gone from a government funded kind of research institution into the premiere driver of technology innovation for the entire globe. Um and as a result, you don't not wanting to upset someone in government has not is no longer the absolute priority.

And people realized that who gets appointed as a big impact， right? Take cyp to um the big administration has been very, very anti cypher and that has had a really big impact on the sector and on the industry. And so IT makes sense to that sector has sort of gotten really involved, has put a lot of pressure on both candidates tes and on your legislative candidates tes as well. And I think that's the world that we live in. Um and I think once you know, once the genius out of the bottle doesn't .

go back in already whole tight because the news is CoOperating with our conversation, we got breaking news on elon musk. Steve kovach has the detail. Steve.

hey there, joana. Elon must million dollar give away out in pencil LV. Ana, this is between him. And is amErica pack to voters that can continue? Now this, the judge in philadelphy, this is from our college gear grum back over at nbc news, has denied the filly district attorneys motion to to stop this give away. Obviously, we're twenty four hours away from election day, so might not have mattered too much.

The lawyers for muslim has packs, but much of the day arguing over whether or not to give away was in fact a an of lottery verses giving people payments as supporters. They were back in fourth for many hours, and the judge just now deciding the this million dollar give way can continue in pennsylvania and again, where a day out from the election. So this is a loss here for the phillida.

john, all right, of covered. Thanks broadly. This is silly value money going directly to give an elections process.

yeah. Look, I think that ultimately, I am just going to have different users to who should win this election, but ultimately you want more people to vote. And we have incredibly low over to turn out in this country, especially all elections that are not the presidential.

And we've gotto come up with different ways to get people more engaged. And so you know, if that time we you don't want to do IT honestly, IT is legal. I think it's not actually a bad thing, just like i'm trying to make this possible to vote on their phones in elections.

I think that would help increase participation quite a bit. And really a problem with that. And keep in mind, just for the viewers are probably not that familiar with the D A.

I filled off. He specifically, he is as far left as he gets. So if you are sort of a regular democrat watching and thinking, well, the democractic he is probably by politics. Odds are if you're watching the show.

he is not right. Bradly task. Great to have you on.

Thanks for joining guys right tomorrow. Be interesting.

You will be speaking up. We're going to hear from other the other side of the VC political spectrum tomorrow, and we are joined by coastal ventures managing director key throw boy who supporting Donald trump in this race for the White house. Well, next, all of the overtime earnings movers that need to be on your radar 的 here gets set to kick off its analysts called the top of the hour。

Welcome back to over time, we are in the final countdown ahead of the election. Joining us to discuss the impact of the outcome on your portfolio is Raymond James, washington policy analyst and managing director ed mills, and good to see you back here. So this time, for the first time that I can remember in quite this way, we've got the polls, which seem to be very, very close within the margin of air across so many battle grounds and then betting markets and the equity markets, which seem to be more certain of what's gona happen. We think something like this .

before not really. Um I do think when I was in boston in new york last week meeting with clients, IT seemed like everyone was certain that the truck was when then we had some polls come out over the weekend and the vibes have shifted again. I've looked at these bedding markets for years.

They often times amplify kind of vide that's out there. They don't generally are very predictive until we start getting votes. There were some races back in twenty twenty that had a one percent chance for certain candidates that ended up in the senate, ended up in the house. So I don't over in next to those betting markets. I look at a much larger moc .

job can imagine what the betting markets would been saying in twenty sixteen. So what's likely most volatile if we get result that, that is somewhat different from what the markets are expecting?

yeah. So what we did that brave in jams is we've gone sector by sector, giving our top picks. And over the weekend, what we asked ourself is if there was an unexpected result, where could investors be caught outside? So if you're eventing on a trump Victory in Harris wins, semiconductors, health care facilities reads or what screen as being potentially most outside if you're getting on a Harris Victory in trump wins, construction, engineering, ground transportation stocks are the ones that are most of size when we look at performance from the election day through the first six months of next year, first, where the markets been trading over the last six months.

are there any sectors that are by partisan? And what I mean by that is that IT really doesn't matter what the outcome is. They're going to continue on a secular journey in morning.

That was a no thing that I wanted to do here, rain and James, because things are so close and they're so many variables, you can go down. Rabbit holds real quick. So I put out a report that said, here are some of the things going to regardless of the outcome of the election, and a lot of them are market positives.

So I think no matter who wins because of changes from the supreme court, there's gonna the less regulations four years or now, eight years or now than there is today that benefits energy, health care, financial, telecom. I do think we're gonna get energy permanent reform because it's very by parson and we have A I needs for that energy that's going to benefit all of the things that get those tax credits under the inflation reduction act. And finally, no matter who wins, there are still a lot of fiscal stimulus that needs to be digested to the economy. We estimate that actually only twenty five percent of the fiscal stimulus passed into the administration has been spent. So there's almost a trillion of dollars that are still going to be digested into this over the next couple of years that boost industrial stocks, that boost anything tied to energy as well.

We talk about the race for president, but how much does the composition of congress matter here? I mean, I think about i'd covered defense, right? Defend spending that's gonna largely lie with congress, not the president.

yes. So one of the things we said is that no matter what happens, we're still unfortunately in a very heighten geopolitical risk world. And so defense budgets ts go up regardless.

But you mention congress, and this is really important because when I go down the list of things that are potentially market negative, when you don't have a democratic sweep, if Harris wins, if there happens to be a republication ate that takes off the table, some of the potential tax increases, IT also takes off the table, the trade, terrible immigration policies that Donald trump s pursuing. Is that ultimately one of the Better outcomes for the market? Now Donald trump wins in the a democratic cause.

I think there's a little bit more warning there than the market. Same because I don't think those democrats are gonna a want to give a Victory. And that might be the one scenario where we don't get a tax bill next year.

right? Ed mills, thanks gave me IT out for us. We appreciate IT. Of course, tomorrow, we're going to get more earnings on top of election here. And over time, i'm keeping me on super micro, which we know has already had some massive moves. Give me some of its accounting .

as well in the chips today. Serious down nine latus, down eight point eight and X P, down five and a half a lot.

你。 Well， that's going to do IT .

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