Why Millions of Americans Are Financially Unprepared
46:45 Share

On radio, on youtube, screaming live on invest talk dot com and for our podcast subscribers, this is invest talk, independent thinking, shared success. Invest talk is made possible by K P P financial, a registered investment advisor firm serving clients throughout the united states. Here is kp p financial, chief executive officer, financial adviser just in client.

Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome back to invest talk. This is our thursday, november twenty first twenty twenty four edition, which you all tuning in for this hour. Excited to unpacked your questions. Give you some perspective well, with over twenty five years investment experience in order to help you on your path towards your own version of financial freedom, that's everyday is about, you know, you want to do more of what you want to do and less of what you don't have to or what you have to do, right? It's it's really about creating flexibility in your life from a financial perspective and that we are here to help build habits towards and the right mind frame, mind member, mind set to consistently make smart decisions with your money.

And that's by avoiding emotions and focusing more on the facts on the ground, avoiding worrying too much about what what you hope the world will be and focusing more on what the world is. okay. And so, uh, we are here for this hour to do all of those things. And then just a bit, we're going to talk about today's market performance and run down the show topics. But first, let's tackle this color question .

now just calling the check about eight investors are the taker. Simba, play, just only get your thoughts on IT. The Price has dropped me in pretty dramatically. And want to see is this is a sort of business as sustainable during this financial environment. 这样。

thank you. All right. Looking at David busters, P, L, A, Y is the symbol and this is the name that is dawn.

Substantially since high April, around seven dollars per share. Now we're down thirty four dollars share still off the twenty nine and change for the fifty two week low. But a certainly the technicals are weak. And the big issue here is the debt that we've talked about this before, that you don't want companies with a lot of debt on their baLance eat so negative free cash flow, the times of interest is only two times that's too low. And then they stepped about a billion dollars, a billion three, excuse me, in long term, get on their baLance sheet.

And that is not a sustainable situation, Frankly, when you have negative free cash flow and the long term debt in twenty twenty two, one from four hundred thirty one million all the way to one point three billion and in a rising and treat environment, that becomes a problem. And h that's why earnings are expected to fall twenty seven percent this year. And once again, free cash flow is negative.

So you don't like to see a levered company with negative free cash flow. And you know, we're in a world where there's a lot of other entertainment options. And I just don't think that this is a great way to invest or a great place to invest strong and to pass on David busters.

Pl a why now over a lot of have a lot of ground to cover over the next forty five minutes in our main focus point will be about how millions americans are financially unprepared. And U. S only four hundred percent retirees rely almost entirely on.

There is so security check for sustained themselves. And that's only one hundred and twenty dollars month on average. So we are going to look at this problem and how we could solve IT for future generations.

Many current retirees who are in the situation they don't have they can do much, right? It's kind of uh, time is cast them by and they are they made their bed and they must sleep in IT. But that doesn't mean we can learn the lessons for all Younger generations and make sure that they don't repeat them.

So we will look at that story. We also have other topics on the docket as well. One is in regards to, uh, the earning season, what does that look like so far? As well as what are you know the the worries that the market is curtaining focusing on.

And then last, the thanksgiving is one week away from today. That also means that holiday season IT will basically is upon us, right? And so what are analysts seeing what IT comes to earnings explications or holiday sales? And how will that impact the consumer discretionary sector?

So we will look at that, but most importantly will be your voice pain calls that we are ready to play. One is on energy and the other is on quon investing. And we also have questions that came via the comments section over on our youtube channel as well.

And of course, I welcome your finance and investment question, investment questions alive at any time. But more even more importantly now right now, during this four to five o'clock pacific time, our so don't hesitate to reach out with your questions. They were heading into a short break and on the site to touch briefly on today's market activity and then play more of your questions. Here are the best stock.

Invest talk is made Better when listeners add their voices.

Are you comment on earth gold.

G O L B and .

Justin line? And look, ero are always ready to provide unbias dancers. Be patient.

Don't russian anything. Understand what you own. I probably trim here, but I don't see any reason why sell out of ice.

K ls are very important, but so are the spontaneous questions that come in during the invest talk. Live stream .

s over to if you ve never called.

what are you waiting? Let's go take another life call. Tell your friends, live a little.

live a little.

all invest weekdays from four to five P M. Pacific time .

makes a eight.

eight, eight, ninety nine chart.

The numbers are in invest talk now with more than sixty million downloads. Justin line and luka o are ready to answer your financing investment questions. Twenty four or seven invest eight, eight, eight, ninety nine chart.

eighty eight, nine, nine, eight, eight, nine, nine, two, four, two, seven days. I got to and ask your question on todays show. We'll take a quick look at the market today. IT was quite the positive day overall. And what was interesting here was the growth of the market did well, but not the big names, not the the mega caps, not your your mag seven names.

Google was down five percent on, uh, more anti trust worries that, uh, they're going to force them to spin off their chrome browser and really break up google in some way, shape, perform. Obviously, this is kind of a last ditch effort by the current by administration. We will see if he is taken up by the trip administration.

So that will be interesting. But you have other names down as well. Amazon, down over two percent.

Microsoft, down about half a percent there. Tesla, down as well. You did have met a only down about a half a percent there. Apple down slightly and video was up on those earnings, but only half a percent there.

But if you look at the rest of the market hit very well, you are named like IBM up about three, nine percent into IT, up about four point three percent. Costco is up nearly three percent. There apply materials at three percent.

Just listing off a bunch of these names. If i'm looking at the heat map, pretty much every sector of the market did well outside of those mega mag seven names. So that was very interesting.

The bigger the company, the kind of worse IT did today. And that's a very interesting new dynamic that we're seeing in markets right now. The nasdaq was basically fine in the day on the up six points there.

So not a, not A A lot of movement. The doll, up over one percent. Asp, up over half a percent.

So the quality names did very well. You had named like snowflake was up thirty two percent oko. That's in the uranium city of the the small modular reactor space.

That was up twenty percent. So some big movers on that front, tea doc was up about fifteen percent. Micros strategy that was down sixteen percent. You had some china names like p dd down ten percent and certainly a mixed bag overall, but generally positive outside of those meg, seven names of, uh, pretty interesting start uh to this week so far after oex last week and overall, you just have to be generally bullish ed on the markets, but probably not those mega cap names.

Now we've been telling your friends and family about our free podcast downs that you can find available in video, a form over on youtube channel as well. And we comments, we get questions in the comments section, excuse me. And let's tackle one of those.

Now C, G, M says, hi, best stock. What are your thoughts on high? O, I own IT and want to buy IT.

What's a good entry point again? H, E, I is the symbol here. We pulled this up. H, E, I, there will go now. This is in the eras, space defense and manufactured gene engines, aircraft components replaced on parts electronic, an electoral optical systems, thirty eight billion dollar market cap. And this is an interesting one because it's really done well since the since the election.

And the idea is that those in europe are going to see some funding pod and they're going to have to invest in IT in their own defense. And the demand for airspaces defense supplies will get a new major buyer. And I have some sympathy for that.

But I think the broader question is, will hostilities current hostilities um I was they come doing end but will they be tempt down? And will the surge in earnings over the past couple years because they made two eleven in twenty, twenty one, two forty two in two thousand and twenty two, two eighty six last year, just make three dollars and sixty five cent this year? And revenue is not just going game buster, up thirty seven percent last quarter, earnings up thirty one percent, so demonstrating at a very high multiple.

So I would not be buying at these levels. IT is too expensive for me, and I don't necessarily think that this is a trend that will remain durable because we're still the biggest, biggest buyer, uh, biggest spender when IT comes to the military equipment. Obviously, our fiscal situation is a bit dire, and I don't think this is a name that I would want to pay extreme multiples for. So and in this recent move up actually is is not being confirmed by uh, the mac. So i'm seeing uh some techno divergence here and high, high multiples until I would pass on hike o there's for another color question now.

Hi, he left on new york a question about entity CoOperation. Take a simple E, T, R. What would be a good entry point? Thank you, my bye.

Energy, engaging electric power to production and distribution to three million customers. And arkell, usia and mississippi, this has been bombing rings are also to gold n icy seven this year, seven percent next year. Uh, but I think it's going out of itself.

Is cheating that for looking main twenty years multiple? I think that's, uh, a bit extreme here. And I think you're trying to solve the momentum and I think you miss the momentum. okay.

If I pull back to a daily chart, um this went up on looks like the wasn't election actually obvious and earnings because this was on Christ Christmas halloween on october thirteen first and it's been consolidating since, but it's not really holding IT that well. And I think the elemental is is waiting here. Revenues were down six percent last quarter.

Earnings were down nine percent now. Earnings are also to accelerate into next year. But i'm not onna pay this much for A A utility that just really isn't that exciting from an earnings perspective.

So I think you're barking up the wrong tree. I think you just try to chase that moment. So I think there's Better opportunities in the same space.

Yeah, they are the second largest nuclear AR owner in the us. I like that by I just don't see them motel. I don't see the valuation here being attractive.

So i'm passing on energy. Thanks for the call. They are moving no break and still to come. My focus point and more answers to your questions and the youtube question as well. So give me call at eighty eight, nine, nine year.

Got a question for Justin or look, you're the best person to ask.

I was calling about where you hold on to or I I would like to know more about the accompany i've been tracking for sometimes. Curious if you think would be Better. Me let to go.

and then money else. AR talk is ready. Twenty four, seven.

Well, first off, never take one man's opinion as gospel, including my own.

Is that a good idea to sell your losses in a roth I R A, and just use whatever you have, have to reinvest into Better stocks.

Will you give a recommendation on show for a buying like an entry point to buy a stock if already owe IT? Should I go head and be looking to if this gets to one seventy to one seventy five in that range, that's where .

I pick you up.

Don't forget to call invest eight eight ninety nine short.

Your questions are free, the answers are unbiased. Just line is here now, ready to take your calls live investor eight eight eight ninety nine chart.

Now I can focus point today concerns the retirement crisis, and many older americans lack financial security per couple reasons, or financial literacy and lack of four sight. And according to A R P, one in seven retirees depend on our security for ninety percent or more of their income. Now he was not designed for that, wasn't designed as a sole source of income in retirement.

IT was more so supplementary, right, in addition to a pension, for example, or for a one kit. So define benefit, define contribution plan. And this is leaving many retirees either in poverty or on the right of party.

And really, once again, this is lack of foresight. And financial literacy means inadequate savings during their working years. And you know, the inability to work any more kind of creeping up on people and health problems going to creep up on people.

And eventually they say all I can't work anymore or I can't do what I used to do and now my incomes dropping or being eliminated and I don't have enough money because I thought I was going going to be able to work longer. So you can we can learn from this crisis, okay, but we have to do a few things. And IT starts both on the the macro level, you know, government on down, and then on the personal level as well.

Now the government level, you have to examine in kind of consumer behaviors, explore new policies and implement incentives to encourage people to effectively save. Now, more schools are implementing financial literacy programs, but more work needs to be done. A steady with A C, F, A institute found that twenty three percent gensec investors have no formal financial education.

And many americans are still unaware of basic concepts like compound interest, how to choose the right retirement account is set up, and so of schools, employers, government agencies, they all have to play a role here. Now one promising approach is automated rolling. And I know there are some rules here in california like this, and I think in many other states that are making work, making employees have a retirement a retirement plan and automatically enrolling new employees in IT.

But that's probably not enough, especially for low and middle income workers, those the ones that have the most time just savings savings. There's something called the savers credit. And this helps low and middle of americans who contribute to retirement plan by cutting up to a thousand dollars author tax bill when they file their annual context.

So instead of A A, A writing and off on their income, it's a all, it's, it's an entire tax credit. Okay, for a thousand dollars, two thousand dollars for married couples. Could you yet to be want to get low and middle income people? What about making the entire amount if you put into an I array a credit verses just to ride off? That's one thing that could change.

Now another layer here is that the type work is evolving, especially for those low and middle income consumers. And that has do with the gig economy, right? Uber and jordas, they're not offering retirement plans.

And so the people that are uh, working those jobs, they're not really realizing that they're missing out on a big part of traditional compensation packages at companies not just the salary but it's health insurance. It's retirement accounts uh, matching for len key contributions to set up up. And so finding ways uh, to improve those people's savings mechanisms will will definitely help.

Now Younger americans have grown appearing. Security may not be available in its current form when they retire, and that's encourage them to save earlier. But even with that, they're not saving enough mainly because of student loans.

They don't have the the disposal income after paying for life. Lus didn't loans to really continue to save. That's kind of on a macro o level.

But what can you do on an individual level? Now the first is, and I see to solve the time, do your very best to wait until full retirement age until you take such security. IT rarely makes sense to take some security before six, your foretime minutes.

Okay, rarely. Now everyone situations different. So I don't want to say never, but IT rarely. And I see this all the time at at a, uh, a new clinical board. And his wife was badging him, takes all security there, sixty four.

And I said, you know, I unfortunately they had our to date and consult with me before is something we do for clients is figure out when they should take security. Is that for retirement age? Is that at seventy or earlier, this is part of know having a financial disher.

And so unfortunately, he turned to me a little late um but he was the things where somebody who they just feel like need the money. But you have to make that decision in the full context build of your your financial plan. So us number one, number two is maximum contribution to your I R race, your foreign case.

Take a mage of catch of contributions, then consider working beyond your traditional retires beyond sixty five if you can. Even if it's part time, it's only good for your but often it's very good for your mental health and longevity as well. And then once can sit down with an adviser, figure your health care, cross your housing needs, your long term care expenses and set up and something we do for clients.

And you need to make sure you are focusing on those things as well in order to avoid the pitfalls that many current retirees have our remate. Then the next best talk, look in this question, how much life insurance do you need? The depending various factors of putting annual income, outstanding deaths, future expenses and more. That's sorry to marry. But for now, i'm just in client where to take your calls at eight day ninety nine.

two attended chicago .

waivers black friday previous sale is here early right now four of the seventy person of everything home shop early black body deals now at the way per store at eaten plaza and valmet or online at waver dog.

every style.

every home. My dad works in B2B mar keting. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laugh at me to this day, not everyone gets B2Be, but with linked in, you'll be able to reach people who do get a hundred dollar credit on your next ad campaign. Go to linton com slash results to claim your credit, that's linton on slash result terms and conditions apply linked in the place to be to be.

Every investor is working to build a secure financial future. The more you learn about how the market works, the Better your chances for success. Invest talk eighty eight ninety nine shirt hello.

this is David from ten is a is so my question is about natural gas. Natural gas seems to be nearing a historically lose. So doesn't investment in U N, G directly make thanks. Thank you.

Are looking at natural gas and I am a bit bullish this winter on natural gas. One charter sell was the um average temperature at in and article and IT was below the long term average, well below which pretends to likely a colder winter and cold their winter means more people are crank in those a those those hears and burning more natural gas and that tends to be bullish for natural gas. So I like what you are thinking.

I do think nature gas in the short commute e term is likely had higher. But make no mistake about IT, you do not want to buy U N G for this. okay.

And just go look at a longer interactive U N G. U N, G. Is the united states natural gas fund, and they're using futures to Better natural gas. The problem is when they roll those futures, there's costs there.

And that's why if you go back to two thousand and seven, when this was when this came out, split adJusting IT came out at sixty six hundred dollars per share. Now it's at fifteen dollars per share. Has natural gas to gone down nine and nine point nine nine percent since then? No, it's the cost of rolling the futures.

So this is interesting. I I look at U N G. Kind daily sometimes daily day basis to see you know atria is upper down on the day or the week. And you know kit gives you a good sense of direction, but that's IT. You don't use this as a way to invest in natural best.

If you want to play the upside natural gas, go buy a company that the vast majority of their production is coming from natural gas, that's the way. But you don't buy U. N, G.

Thanks for the call. There's another question that came in. We are youtube channel, Randy, twenty three years.

Thoughts on C, L looks like a good value by with upside. Good value by with upside. C L is coal gate.

Paul, move your standard blue ship consumer staple company, they know sell tooth pace, tooth pressure, es dishwashing, liquid fabrics, softener shampoos is set up seventy seven billion dollar market cap. My issue is when you say it's a value play, I don't I don't know where you see that. okay.

Uh, IT doesn't really look like A A cheap stock to me. A if you're looking at for looking earnings of three dollars and fifty eight cents this year or three dollars eighty seven cents next year, and it's a ninety four dollars dog. So you know amid twenty years, that's not very cheap in my books.

Now they do have a pretty good baLance sheet that's a positive. But if you look over the last ten years, it's enterprise value to evita is average on eighteen and that's what that now eighteen spot forty two. So I won't say it's cheap.

I wouldn't say it's expensive. The technicals are OK. But remember this is one of your typical uh, value. You play some value place, uh, dividend place place.

And if interest its are going up, their dividend is going to become loss attractive and is now broken below the tune of average. It's just had lower on the higher interest strates. So I am passing on coal gate.

I don't think is cheap out. I want to wait till you're an up train run out in the downturn. And I wanted to be cheap, not kind of fairly value like this.

down. Thanks for the call. Let's talk about about earnings. Earnings season. About seventy five percent of companies in the one hundred have beat expectations on earnings so far.

This earning season, it's it's pretty much over, okay, is pretty much over. That's slightly below the five year average of seventy seven percent. On the revenue side, sixty one percent of companies be the five year average, sixty nine percent. okay. Now that's always interesting.

But what's more important is how is the market reacting? Are they punishing companies more, the rewarding companies more than average? And the answer there is, yes, i'm about actually cording the fact that the average Price game for expectation beers was one in eight percent two days before the earning, released through two days after.

So a lot times just, you know, kind of leak in beating up into the the report and in the market adJusting the couple days after. So I like using kind of those four days of trading, two before, two after the average dep for companies that had negative earning surprises was two point nine percent, both slightly larger than the historical average. So just think is a bit more market volatility.

Now what about the max seven names? And this is where IT gets even more interesting. why? Because number one, earnings full outside of the next seven is actually growing again, the ninety, ninety three companies outside the max have positive or aggregate earnings growth.

In the last two quarters, IT had been in decline. And so the rest of the market is delivering growth. Not the only game is that maybe it's why you're having a days like today where more money is flowing to those named verses that make caps the next seven.

Now microsoft, le and metal maybe earnings and revenue expected, but they still saw their stock fall. And mark soft, apple was really because of disappointing forward guidance. Once again, often times, it's not just about the beat, but it's about the guidance.

And that fell because they had declining user growth. And when IT comes to capitalizing on A I really only google and amazon have a decent case at IT. The rest, meta, apple and microsoft are spending a lot of money on IT, but they have a little revenue to show for.

And so that's one of the issue that issues that's making a lot of those names uh and attracting us a lot merker. Ah so that's what the current earning season has looked like so far. Now what about the proverbial wall of a worry? And there are three main worries I think the market should be paying attention to or investors should be paying attention to that the market might wake up to.

The number one would be the ten year treasury rate. It's gone up since the basically the start of the market pricing in a trump Victory. And IT continues to can hold its ground here.

Okay, for ten years now at four point four three percent at the clothes today, if you look at the end of september, IT was at four point three, three point six percent. I guess that's september. So that's a pretty big move.

Nearly a hundred basis points in the span of too much without with fed cutting rates, right? So we know that eventually there is financial gravity here that set in that multiples contract. One, if if rates got too much and higher rates, tight financial conditions, tighten liquidity conditions and you get some sort of correction kind of like you saw twenty, twenty two.

Now I do think that comes at some point in the next that's got two years, but IT may be from much higher levels from here. It's all going to depend on the liquidity. Liquidity remains relatively robust. And so far, as long as liquidity remains abundant, it's hard to get a major correction in markets. Number two, the credit cycle.

What part of the credit cycle are we in? 好 reads are tight right now。 And so the worries is that if create reads move up well, that's a risk of of scenario and equity markets react and react accordingly to the downside.

But you know so far, once again, liquidity is fine and you aren't really getting A A catalyst. You know yes, that will be the next move, but I could easily be the year two years and now you can have plenty more uh, Price precision for asset Prices, me too. Now then so so far, you know credit cycle is not looking ready to turn.

So now going into the end next year, I think that certainly could be a different dynamic before. Right now, everything is just fine. Now the last one to be is A I A bubble and the simple answer is, yeah, it's a bubble though once again, i've said this before, IT takes liquidity to move the the other direction for those valuations broadly took correct like in twenty twenty two.

So that's the earning season. That's the current market, uh, worries that are there. They're on the horizon, but you don't want to react too soon because like I said, there can be plenty more upside until there's some sort of major market inflection. And let's keep things moving in playing another question from the twenty four, seven or eight bank eighty eight ninety nine chart.

Hi just in a lude. I wanted to ask you a question. I retired early and am now enjoying life aboard in the phillipines with my family.

I'm in my forty and um expLoring ways to generate pass of income. Important, clearly interested in quite investing and wanted to get your tick on IT. Do you think is a viable way to create consistent assif income? Understand is a deep learning curve, but i'm ready to put in the effort you have any advice, resources or key things to watch up for as I beginning the journey, I I greatly appreciated. Thanks again for all the great work that you do.

All right. So I talking about is quant investing. You're you're basically using numbers and investing completely based on the numbers. Here's the issue is that a kan's investing has been around for a long time. The most famous one is the long term capital measure and that blew up in one thousand nine hundred and eighty eight and quants investing is just what's going to using numbers and no emotions, no what I call quality native analysis in order to to uh, make your decision for a good examples right now, quality ital analysis is extremely important.

Why is that? Because if you've just using the numbers you're ignoring, this new administration is going to come in probably make a lot of changes to the way the economy is run, the way different that departments are run, a how the way regulations are, are applied and rolled out. And if you're just looking at the numbers, you're ignoring all of that. And so, you know, I can IT be a part is part of our process, right? Is is understanding the the numbers, but to us is just one piece of the puzzle.

And so and and you also it's very broad, right? What do you mean by quantz sting? It's too broad of a term for me to say yes or no IT depends on the strategy you are applying as well as is this the only way you will probably not you know, IT IT could be part of your strategy, could be a certain portfolio you're running with a certain algorithm or certain quantity of analysis.

That's fine. But to say this is all i'm going to do, a it's to rely on just the numbers and and b, you're not giving any context here. What algorithm are you talking about? Thanks, the 告。 That's twenty twenty four is moving fast. And proof is that is just a handful of quarters left. Thankful to giving is one week from today. And the question is, are you prepared for twenty five is going to look different than twenty twenty four? We know that we have a new ministration coming in, new trends that are emerging liquid damper s that are likely to be very different by the backup of of twenty twenty five, then the first half of twenty twenty five.

What does that mean for four portfolios?

What asset classes are likely to under performer outperform? Is your portfolio alien with these trends? These are all things that we track for our strategies and something that we go over in these three portfolio assessments, once again, via telephone or zoom meetings. And this is where we really dial in your rist tolerance level. See where you're what's have a risk of taking in your portfolio and then are you taking the right type of risk, not just risk in general, but the right type of risk exposure, the right sectors, the right um parts of the market that are likely to outperform with the shifting uh administration, with the shifting liquid dynamics both next year M B on and from a financial planning standpoint.

Are you on track for your different goals from retirement to maybe it's, uh, paying for our daughters, uh, wedding or sending a kids to call lege or uh maybe healthcare expenses, maybe it's downsizing your home or buying that second the vacation and retirement, whatever IT is, these are things that you need to lie layout all the data model that out five years, ten years, twenty years down the line. So you know what type of security when you takes? So security when you should do rough and versions, all of these are important, a planning exercises that we do for clients and that we can do for you, so they don't hesitate to head over to invest.

Talk, talk conflict. The portfolio of view button on the top right and part of the screen. Best talk now, one sixty million downloads in our history.

Let's play another question now calling you about, uh, get your opinion and uh or pool the symbols. Uh W, H, R. He would have good entry point is for the stack.

Thank you. I'll be listed world poll. I don't think I need to tell you what they do to make household appliances washers and driers figurate ors dish washers.

Up six point three percent dividend yield. But the earnings have been coming down. Earnings have gone from twenty six thousand and fifty nine cents and one when everyone was at home remodeling their homes.

You know, I want to upgrade my kitchen, my bathroom eeta and and and that's what their man and the margins were. We're big and but earnings have continued to fall since. So to make eleven dollars in ninety seven cents this year and eleven forty years next year and prep pandemic, they're making sixteen dollars per share.

So those kind of a flash in the pan kind of environment and things are certainly getting a worse overall. And they have a ton of debt and their baLanced seven point three billion dollars and long term dead in a six billion dollar market cap. And I don't think that this dividend yield can be sustained.

And the proof is they were increasing IT consistently until twenty twenty two, and it's been flat ever since. So they see that as well that this is not a sustainable level diving payout. So I would not be buying this.

I don't like the trend and earnings and definitely don't expect that even year to be sustained. Makes for the call now are moving into our final break. So we're going to give me a league might do that right now at eighty eight, ninety nine.

This is invest talk made possible by K, P, P, financial, where they implement a very practical investing philosophy and thinking shared success. Learn more anytime at invest talk dot com. And now just in here taking your calls. So step up with your questions. Eight, eight, eight, not in nine chart.

Let's give IT over to a question that was submitted via r youtube channel. And Charles says i'd like your take on F R H R H. IT is an ad for fairfax financial company, sure and hold company guided by prem Watson and somewhat like burke hathaway in nature, was grown very large, holding at four, eight percent I plan to hold for a long term.

Thanks in advance. In this suggestion, a step rely reprise show sometime would be great. That's not a bad idea. Will definitely think about what one of those together, a fairfax financial holdings at a canada, like he said, revenue, thirty billion dollars, a good profitability return equity, about fifteen percent, next one percent divided yield.

And I like, I like the profitable to buying back shares can consistently twenty, eighteen, eight, twenty nine million chairs outstanding. Now only twenty two million shares outstanding, so they are certainly using the roll bus cash flow to buy back shares. Let me take a look at the chart here and see if I can clean anything.

Pull back to a five year chart. Yeah, I mean, I don't I don't really have any issue with this to be answer with you. I I don't I would I would continue to hold at four in epernon your portfolio.

There's nothing wrong with evaluation. There's nothing wrong with the cash flow. Uh, like you said, it's an insurance business, a boring business, but it's a to good business rates in the reinsurance market.

So yeah, I would continue to hold fairfax final. Thanks for the call. Now lastly, let's talk about the holiday season. And target just had a pretty weak guidance and earnings, uh, mainly because higher margin items such as home goods and electronics are not selling as well. Consumers are spending uh, less on non essential items and industry and als expect a deal heavy holiday season going forward and according to the national retail federation and delayed overall holiday shopping and inspected grow at its slowest pace in six years. One of the contributing factors, though only twenty six days between black friday and Christmas last year, there were thirty one days.

So lot of this is calendar related uh ah because if you look at expected number of shoppers that will shop in store or online between thanksgiving day and I were monday this year, that's going from eighty two million last year to eighty one hundred, one hundred eighty two million last year to one hundred and eighty three point four million this year. Now what's interesting as mobile phones are expected to account for fifty three percent of online shopping from november through december, and online spending growth expected to jump to eight point four percent from four point nine. And last year, mobile spending expected to grow twelve percent.

okay. So most of that growth is coming just what you're going to do on your phone. And that's because Younger consumers are continuing to drive a lot of the growth in demand. And so that is the expectation for this holiday season, uh, lot less time, but more promotional in order to hold forward a lot of that demand.

If you've seen a lot of already black friday deals being towed, that's because they're saying they're waiting at the calendar, says black friday on the twenty nine doesn't mean that they're waiting that one and they're ready getting to those promotion. So that is you should expect from a lot of these retailers and the trends and obviously feeds into profits and margins. And we will see low expectation so far.

And that will make the potential beats, I think, a lot easier as we had into twenty, twenty five member, the consumer overall in good shape, low unemployment as well as a baLance sheet on average that is in Better position than I was in two and nineteen. Now yes, lower income consumers, middling consumers, lot of them are hurting, but that's not worth most of the spending is happening, right? Most of spending is coming from upper middle class to the wealthy, and they are doing well, even has assets they're doing really well.

I'm just in client with another investor k program. We think you're listening. We encourage you to tell your friends and family about a free podcast down those any time that I N spotify we could play, and be sure to write in review on itunes as well. And remember, we can help you Better understand your portfolio dynamics and your financial independence goals and calculating your investor is number by adding over to invest talk dog on click on portfolio review button is a free and confidential service. Independent thinking shows success unit .

invest talk is a trademark of K, P, P, financial. Because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program, it's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to them specifically. Nothing said sh'll be taken to be investment advice or shell statements on this program be considered and offers to buy or sell security because such advices rendered solely on an individual basis and at times will require that the investor review a perspective before invest talk is a copywriting program of clan pathless and peasy financial, a registered investment advisor firm which retains all rights for more information regarding K, P, P investment advisers call one eight hundred five five seven, fifty four, sixty one. Thank you for listening and your comments and questions are welcome on our twenty four hour listener line at eight eighty ninety nine charge.