How to Accurately Value Real Estate: 3 Proven Strategies for Investors
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Good afternoon, fellow investors, and a welcome back to invest talk. This is our one day, november eleven, twenty twenty four edition. And IT is veterans day. And I was this initially known as arms this day.

And if you knew that to commemorate the end of world war one back in nineteen eighteen, however, thousand nine hundred and fifty four, the holiday was renamed veterans day in honor of all military veterans. How american soldiers died in about one hundred and fifty thousand fifty three thousand four hundred died in battle. In less than six months of fighting, sixty three thousand soldiers died from accidents and disease, mostly from the nineteen eighteen influenza pandemic.

Interesting, considering we just went through a pandemic. Now, world or one was the deadliest war in american history. Acts of war and world war two is worth going at today.

A different federal holiday. Memorial day is the nation's foremost annual data. Morning honor is to seed service men and women. So this is about all veterans, not just those that are passed.

And what day is those that have been the seats now? But that said, the markets are constantly shifting and especially post election, a lot of joking for position and new trends are emerging. So all around, we're seeing economic and political changes. So that is not news, but it's time to refocus on that as usually have got a lots to talk about today. But first, let's play a call a question .

now tide a question about your value and T, E, V. It's very nova that would spin off from G E. Earlier this year and the valuation just uh, taking out like crazy. What is the data look like now there's a little bit couple, of course, of history.

Thank you. Are you looking at G E, very nova? And this is a spin off of g designs, manufacturer and services technologies to create reliable and electric power systems.

And this says done well a to the election and continues to power higher. Now earnings next year are so be about seven dollars per share now at three hundred and fifty dollars stock though that is the main issue here. Such a it's such a new new a new company.

No, it's just to spend up from G E. Ah and there is not a whole lot to say about IT quite yet because literally it's only been policy wanted spend up with that was back in march this year. So about eight months now continue to go higher. Go hired, went from one to all the way to three fifty .

today and obviously six.

seven dollars per share earnings. That just not tenable. The current Price, it's just way wait too expensive.

But here is talking about wind power onshore, offshore winter bines and blades. I don't know. I don't think that's going to do very well in this environment. Now that's part of their they also have a see um is three segments, power, wind, analogical fiction. So I think that's what's powering here.

It's not the the when turbines, its gas, nuclear, hydro electric and steam technologies and then also has great solutions, power conversion, onal occasion software, solar IT set up. So that part is really what's driving at here. Um the problem the problem is if you get a lot of other companies that have more history, more understanding of the trajectory of their business earnings set a and I just don't have enough information because is just too new of a new entity.

Yes, it's been its Operations around around a while, but it's been under the big umbrella of g. So I would just watch IT for now and see how the numbers come in. Because to me, based on earnings expections for next year, it's just way too expensive.

So it's on the watch list, but still on the watch list now with the ground to cover over the next forty five minutes. And here is what we have. And our main focus point is about how to accurately value or real estate.

There's three different ways to look at a real state. He's a real state value, okay? And we're going to look at comparables as well as cost of a construction and land value and then those that focus on the income potential of a property, okay.

So we will look at that. We also have other topics on the docket. One is in regards to everyone loves to look at the r word recession.

Why are we having a recession? If we're having recession, we should sell equities, right? We should get out out of stocks.

Well, a recession can mean a lot of different things. The others, the general definition of what a recession is. But that doesn't mean what most people thinks.

That means when IT comes to its manifestation in asset Prices settings. So we're going to look at the history of recessions and give you some context there. And in flash, you have time.

What if you had a crustal ball? Meaning, what if you could see the headlines in the newspaper ahead of time? Would you be able to make more money? Would you be able to get rich just by knowing those .

headlines well .

and new study has come out and as some surprising results got the Crystal ball trading chAllenge. So we will take a look at that. In addition, we have voice in calls.

One is on fl, M, X, so mexico etf. And then we have some questions that came into the comment section over on our youtube channel. Of course, I welcome your finance investment questions right now.

We're heading into a short break. And on the other side, I will touch briefly toy's market tivy and in place some more of your questions here. Does not.

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Could take a cook look at the market. Today was another positive day post the trump election Victory, the fourth nicely positive day in markets. Now IT was a bit more mixed than the previous three.

You certainly had some weakness a, especially the commodity space where you you had a strong dollar that uh set back uh, some of those names but also the some like conductor space. The S M H was down about two and a quarter percent today, which is very interesting. And even some of the big tech names, apple down one point two, microsoft down one percent.

Um you had google that was up one percent and amazon that was down about half a percent there. So the the weakness was certainly out of a generally the big tech names that the mag seven, but really the gross of the market still did fairly well. But you have the aztec that was only up to a look here.

And as that was up that earlier point o six percent, S M P was up point one percent. So a mixed bag overall. But you are continue to get that follow through.

But if you're still a lot of joking for position on how the the market trends are going to evolve because I think there are some areas of the market that are bit off sites. If I was the call one IT would really be the dollar. I think the the dollar strength are on the back of the uh the terf s uh are just misguided.

Uh you have the vice president j events and you also have the um you Robert lights iza who is a going to be integral in the economic trade policy and both of them are for a week dollar. They want a week dollar to help domestic manufacturing become more competitive at set up. So if i'm going to critical the markets move in, any of this is really that is why what makes you think to that the incoming administration is going to sit idle by and just allow the dollar to power higher.

I don't see that happening. Um so uh, that's where I see the the best opportunity in this in this trade, I will see a lot of names of moved. And I think I think many of most of those moves will be double.

I'm not gone to argue that I think there's a lot of market is getting right in this industries doing well, small caps doing Better. I do think those are factors that um are areas that will will gain a shrink h throughout the the true ministration. But there are as as usual, just like there wasn't the first administration.

There are parts that just simply what the market will get wrong. And I take on the dollar is probably the number one. So one's got a mix day in markets.

But in general, as I have been saying for a while, no matter who would want on the election, the structure of the markets are such that you are likely to get positive trends through year ends and probably through the first quarter. Now beyond that, I think a lot is up in air, but that's what we're at and that's how you have to continue to position yourself in markets. We have a live call lined up well in sand ago looking at F, N, M. A good .

afternoon. I was wondering why is this starting the move?

Uh, because the speculation that the trump administration will return Fanny may to a private company and that they'll be able to keep their profits and not return them to the treasury as they've been doing since the the financial crisis. And 哦 you know if if you wanted bet on that， that this is the play.

it's speculative, then it's a .

thousand percent specular yeah because post ly financial crisis, the government has basically config ted their profits, saying, hey, we had to build you outs. We to bail you outs and in return for bAiling you out, we get your profits. And you know there's there's strong basis for that. Obviously, shareholder will will to sue and try to get that to to change. And the the you know I think is moving for a good reason, meaning there is a Better chance under a chop ministration than a Better review administration that this will happen.

But you know, from a populous perspective, if trump hat is going to be a more of a popular, is he really going to allow the Fanny may, as of this is Fanny may, to be to exist and earn profits for the private sector with a defect backing by the government? That's what happened. And you saw what happened with french crisis, right? Was, hey, you, we had back you and we had to bail you out. We had, we had to step up to the plate as the government and IT here to that the facto guarantee from the government. And they .

continue .

to Operate. But as Operations continued, they capture of those profits. And so this is complete speculation that they will now allow them to return the capital to shouders.

I don't know that thing. I buy IT, right? Yeah, I will find out thanks to now are moving to a breaks theyll to come in my focus point. We will discuss as well as answers to your questions and your youtube questions as well or give me you all eight eight. I knew I shot.

Justin cline is here and ready to tackle your questions. I've heard you .

saying multiple times that you prefer a shorter distance treasure bonds. Can you explain to me why IT .

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Now remain focus point today is about real estate values, real estate values. Now I do have my real state license, so I understand this Better than most advisers out there. I don't actively use IT, often besides of my own deals. But you know, this is something I know a lot about. Real state valuations take into a lot of different factors, location, lot, size, many of these four plan IT set of a and your the value is something that's very important to most people because homeowner ship is not something that's short term, is usually a long term commitment, okay? An accurate valuation is important to a lot of different players not just you, the the buyer, the cell er but also those that finest the purchase uh property insurance companies, local governments for taxes at set up and the .

benefits of owning .

a pic real state are generally felt over a long term. It's like you buy IT and you just you get that value in a short time to time. So there are four elements to value.

The number one is demand, obviously never. Two is utility. And most people don't think of IT that way. Most people said, think of IT just based on demand with the third, which is scarcity, the finite supply of a competing property. And the forth is transferability.

So one in three, most people think about, right, what is the demand? how? How scares is this type of property within my area? And then but number two and four are less talked about the utility that you get out of IT, okay, the satisfaction of the owner, the needs of the owner at seta and then transfer ability, how easy IT is to to move otherness.

And that's one thing that most people don't think about. They when they look at a any asset, which is how liquid is IT, you know, that takes a while to sea home, takes a while now to get title and transfer all that. And and so that actually hurts the value.

If IT was a more liquid, IT would actually up the value of of all all properties because people could buy IT one day and sell the next kind of like a stock right in the liquidity you would be there and you just bring in more buyers, potential buyers. okay? Now value is not necessarily equal to cost or Price now affects IT, but is not determined native of value. So make sure you understand that, understand that. Now the first method to find the value of the property is IT with the most common, especially in residential real stay, which is the cops.

Okay, what similar properties have been sold within the last year under Normal market conditions that have similar attributes can typically do at least three or four comparables to use this process, and then you have to make adjustments, for example, asia condition of the building, right? So can be you still a four bedroom house with three bathrooms? Thirty, two hundred school phy, you might find a few of those cops.

But is that has that property been recently upgraded? Or maybe it's we know needs a four model and you have to adjust based on those other sales. Maybe some of those other sales have had different conditions in typically they do okay.

And then you have date of sale. So has the economy gone Better and Prices generally got upper down in that area since the those sales? okay. And then the terms of the sales is where any those sales under the rests was.

And I was a bitting more and one of them that pushed the value up for, you know, some reason only subject to that particular property, right? So make sure the terms in the conditions are are, are the same then location, right? So one might be a little bit closer to A A street and that road noise, I was going to hurt that property and you have to just for that.

Uh, and then physical features, lots size a landscaping, the quality of the construction at seta. Those things are obviously you you have to just for that. So that's the comp method and that's the most common for a residential property. Then there's the cost approach, okay? And this is separating the value of the building and the land.

And when you I don't know most people don't know us when you're the coverage that you get for your property is typically only for the building because let's say there's a fire, let's say there's a hurricane, whatever IT is, the building gets wiped out. Well, the land still there, the land still has value, but obviously, and they're not replacing the land, but they will replace the actual structure. And so you're just getting typically coverage on the structure to be built.

So they're looking kind of this at at a cost from the cost approach. okay. And this is IT also more useful when the those have properties aren't being bought, sold frequently, specially those that don't generate income in any way.

Think of schools, churches, hospitals, government buildings, things like that. That's where you typically see this type of approach being the cost approach being utilized. The last is more from investment standpoint, and it's really looking at rate of return on the investment and an income that property produces.

And this is typically for apartment complexes, office building, shopping centers at seta. You know what is the cap ate here? Um a common way to look at is a collie gross income multiplier.

This is kind of A P E ratio of a property. So it's the sale Price divided by the rental income. So in in socks terms, you know market gap divided by earnings that the p ratio.

okay. So that's another common way to look at IT. And then what are similar properties in that area trade for in a growth income motivation, for example. So those are the three main ways to value real estate. Now this talk, we think you are listening and am ready for your calls right now or anytime at eight ninety nine shot.

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Hey guys, Kevin calling for life california. I ve been looking at read IT R D B. If I pewing this year and has been running up like crazy, I use read in a while and they know a lot of people. You let me know you think about the stuck and good idea, thank you。 sorry.

All right. Looking at reddit, R D D T and a recent IPO back in march and has been doing well since the um IPO launch, but that's not uncommon for the first six nine months or so of a um of an IPO and IT surged recently before the trump the election. Believe that was on earnings which did come out.

Earnings were positive by sixteen cents, revenues up sixty eight percent. But if you're looking at Price to sales even going forward, you're talking about a fifteen to twenty times multiple that trading at Price sales, which is very, very high. And I am afraid that this will probably come down a lot as the lock up period is now likely over for most insiders and this bumper give them an opportunity to sell IT.

And I think that will probably be the case. Um I think I think this will um probably most people will probably come down next year. So then they have in the workplace.

But it's just way, way, way wait. Too expensive to be buying at these levels. Thanks for the call. Now we're telling your friends and family about our audio port, audio pocket being available in video form over on youtube. Be a question submitted over there all of the time.

And I remic says, wondering your thoughts on O N O N as possible terrorists that might come with new policies in twenty twenty five. Huge fan of the brand, and this is on running. And IT is in a solid up trend, like most things right now.

This is another good example of those companies that are initially one public and then usually goes into downtown in six, nine, five months after in the bottom and it's found the bottom back in the fall twenty twenty two and did IPO ed around what thirty five balls per share hit a low in the fall of twenty twenty two around in the meeting around fifteen and now up to fifty two. And change. And if we look at the look here, if you look at the earnings, earnings to go higher.

Revenue up seven percent last quarter. Earnings of two hundred and forty eight percent last quarter. Earnings this year also be a dollar per share in a dollar eight next year.

So you based on for looking earnings about fifty times, we know that's pretty expensive. You're like you a Price to sales somewhere and eight times. So I just think it's bit too expensive.

And what you're talking about with the terrifying right, what will the terrace look like? How will maybe evenly apply to on running as well as nike and oka SATA? And I just think this is too much risk here on short term.

Technically, that looks fine. I don't think this is rolling over soon, uh, although we are getting a maxy divergency here. This is it's at a new hide today, but the mad is not it's actually threatened to break this zero line that's very interesting here.

So and a great brand, something I would continue to have in the watch list, but he needs to be far cheaper. Um so after this run and with this recent active divergence, I would pass on on running. Thanks for the call.

Now let's touch a bit on headlines. Everybody looks at headlines, and most people would say, I wish I got this headline yesterday. I would know exactly what to do, I would know exactly that trade, exactly what to buy to take advantage of these headlines.

Well, there were some university um university of professors they wanted to test this theory, and I call IT the cystadenoma ding game. And what happens? Players were given one million dollars in play money.

They were shown fifteen walsh journ articles, front pages, falling big economic news randomly selected over the past fifteen years. There were like these up to fifty times leverage and make bets before him, knowing that this would be the headline the following day. And what happened? Well, the medium, after fifteen rounds, the medium amount, well from that one million was six hundred eighty seven dollars, nine hundred eighty six dollars.

And many of those people lost everything. No small slice made a ton of money, yes, but generally most people lost money even though they knew the headline. And they look at eight thousand financially savy investors.

And so is very interesting here, players uh, to got the basic direction of the stock market less than half the time, knowing the headline. Now they backed out you know obvious things like double or anything like that. But you know headlines like you know fed cut rates, bd raise rates, sala.

And so often, especially last fifteen years, good news is bad news, and bad news is good news. And sometimes your news is gunness. Sometimes bad news is bad news. So the first lesson is that even if you guess the future of what the fed is doing, what the economies doing at seta, that does not give you a hundred percent clear education of how to invest your money. To curb your excitement over how something will play out because the actual end .

result often .

will be different than you think.

Now the second lesson is that markets are made up of billions of people with complex emotions. And bold headlines are just that there are there to get you to pay attention, but they're not really there to .

inform you.

So the devils often the details .

so don't .

sit there and think that um you know you can know how to invest simply by browsing and article, browsing the mostly journal of the financial times or barriers or whatever those headlines are there to attract your attention. They're not there to educate. You know you can dig into the article and get educated and understand context, understand the details of the story, but simply going based on the headline is not a great way to go.

What do you know that after the fact or before. Now twenty, twenty four is moving fast and we only have what six, seven weeks left in the year. Can you believe that? And the big question is, how will your portfolio do under trap administration in twenty twenty five and beyond? Are you aligned with the brother trends in the market? Or are you aligned with the world that you hope exists?

You know this this selection is a great example. You know, uh a roughly half the country I know trumper on the popular vote, but you know only buy what a million half or so votes. So roughly half the country at was disappointed .

with the results.

but the market went up. And so the other half they may um. They may change their portfolio based on how they hope the world will beat. They may hope that trump flames out, for example. But the reality of the situation, no matter what side you fall on, you have to invest based on how the market is. And so if you need help doing that, if you need help passing through the complexity of the world we're living in, especially in the world that were a about the living, which I think is going to get more complex than what we're dealing with today, just simply because you have new ministration with a lot of new, uh, priorities that mayor may not be a realized, just like every administration, right? Every administration comes in with ideals and some get pass, some go through and others get throw into the weight.

So if you need help .

passing through all of this and how IT impacts you, your portfolio, I encourage you to reach out to myself at my company, cap p financial, which is where we have the same philosophy, both on an affair, which is independent thinking and share success. We're here to go along with you share in our success, okay? And we practice unbiased guidance and the parole investing lish means you invest right logs at our clients.

So encourage you take advantage of this free portfolio review by heading over to invest talk dot com and click on the portfolio review button in scheduling a telephone call or zoom. Meeting with me now is best talk now with more than sixty million downloads, and our work continues thirty seconds. So hang on.

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Would this be an opportunity to get into annuity?

Every is different. And so other questions I just .

calling for your assessment of blackstone incorporated .

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Hi Justin. This is under from buffo is call about a stock tiger simple T M D X transacts group eighty seven ecosphere of oran transplant system to stuck I was in body year ago and wrote IT all the way up to about one after years. So I believe it's pulled back quite a bit on some downturn's.

I still think it's a good, good stack and well position for the future. You all think and it's the good stock get back into 我们。 别 对。

Well, this is the name that was losing a tony money for a long period of time and suddenly making money. There's in a dollar for this year, a dollar sixty five next year, but those estimates are coming down. And proof is that, like you said last quarter, revenges were only at sixty four percent.

And this is the perfect example um when companies are trading at very high multiples and they're growing fast, if the next earnings announcement doesn't have A A similar level of growth and doesn't drive with the the the long term growth narrative, the multiple going to be hit hard. And this the name that picked up recently, once seven five, now down eight nine dollars and eleven cents. And even based on a dollar sixty five next year, still pretty expensive.

We talking about sixty ish multiple. And a year ago, there were grown revenue one hundred and fifty nine percent and now down to sixty four. And that's really the issue is that the markets repricing this and likely to continue to replace this much, much lower your Price sales ratio, still seven point six, enterprise varieties, around forty seven.

I think this seems to be cut roughly in half again from here, already been roughly cut in half. I think that needs to go down probably into the forties, and that's where to be interesting again. And until then, I wouldn't be buying more.

I I i'd actually got selling IT because could go down into the forties and language there for a while until you get A A growth reactivation of growth. okay. What is just where IT starts to become a conversation? I only think it's conversation here.

I think it's just wait too expensive. So and you just started a downturn, right? It's just tapped down from one twenty eight ish once twenty six all the way down to a low recently of eighty two post earnings.

So that's a pretty big drop and blow all the major moving averages. The techs are broken, and it's going to need a lot more a lot of a bigger change in momentum and the chart to make this profitable. So until gets the forty and then starts to an up trend, I wouldn't even be looking at IT.

I think it's a lot more I think a lot more downside to come. Let us move quickly and squeak in. Another question now .

i'm looking to get your thoughts on twila. Take your T W L O. I'm looking to hold for three plus years, but I really want to get invest talks and put IT. Thanks in .

advance by oh, I think you're very late to the game at least near term, right? This is moved up dramatically from fifty six back in september now at ninety four and obviously a good earnings, uh, ten percent revenue growth last year to those acceleration from four percent previous a quarter and earnings, rob, seventy six percent. So there are four dollars and twenty eight cents next year.

And now the good thing is from a weekly perspective, it's just starting enough train. You know this fell all the way from four hundred and fifty dollars per share back in late twenty twenty in a recent low fifty two dollars. okay.

Now we're at ninety ninety four. So that's the positive here is a lot of that access has been worked off and it's at least are reasonably Priced. But you know that cells growth still pretty meager um and it's very overboard in the near term.

So I don't hate IT on a pullback consolidation phase, but I don't think it's much upset in the short term. Uh, but if you want to bet on that growth longer term to then you want a consolidation period to get in and was investig. I'm just in time, we have one goal here each other weekend m and like you achieve your own version of your freedom and at work continues after our final bricks, which questions in right now at eighty eight, ninety nine years.

Got a question for dusting or look, you're the best person to ask you.

I wanted to pick your in about apple to think about their earnings call, the call .

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Let's go take a live call. Send me from time to go listing on A M twelve twenty. And if you want to talk about tesla.

Thank you. Protect my call. Um my question to you why this company talk is going up so much. Uh, the fundamentals have not changed as far as what if anything, um you know the new administration, this is going to be likely scale back on leave credits. So this that should be hit down yeah this .

is this is the for example, along the fine, the funny may question earlier how the regulatory environment is often very important to the valuation of a company. It's pretty clear that now under the top administration, things like false advertisement uh around full self driving is not going to be punished a under the new administration, right?

The N T S B isn't going to full of full self driving a from the the market because it's still in beta mode and you know has the issues, right? So you know the those types of regulatory problems that tesla has been has been in some some ways been hanging over tesla's head. It's very unlikely to be an issue over the next four years, right? And so I think that's the revaluation here because you you're right.

Um the the business of tesler is you know it's certainly profitable now, but it's not doing very well. If you look at no revenues and eight percent last quarter earnings this year, i'll be down twenty three percent from last year. So know its its growth overall as slow and should not be trading at this type, this type of multiples by any stretch of imagination. But that's what you're think here is you probably short covering there's as well as an adjustment to new regular or environment that obviously with elon being helpful to the new trouble ministration getting up, getting elected and backing in. Um they are just not going to do anything to prevent us from kind of doing whatever you know, whatever they want.

So your recommendation just want us to stay away .

or yeah I mean, I mean, I think could continue its near term momentum, but from test has been over value for a long years time and just still well below its all time high. I was in four hundred and fourteen dollars for sure now screaming back up towards there, right three fifty at the clothes today, but it's still generally down. why? Because the fundamental picked out around the same time.

They made four dollars and seven thousand and twenty twenty two now making two forty two this year. And so you're write those underlying fundamentals continue to weaken. And then obviously, administration would not be as friendly to the electric vehicle industry. And you know you talking about terri, ffs, and and other things that they go into um these products of test imports a lot of their cars from china as well.

So what does that look like and obviously make IT an exemption, right? It's probably what you're seeing too is, hey, we're going they make an exemption supposed to a other a automatic ers that might important and get there and get a terrible on the so you are still a lot to be seen. I just think it's the name that you know has a very terribly overvalue.

Thank you. Thanks for the call. Now lastly, let's touch a bit on recessions.

Recessions and what do we have time? I don't know if I can. I don't have that dig into this. Yeah, we only have one minute left. And Frankly, I would love to dig in into recessions, but Frankly, I just don't have time. It's just two up against the clock that what does IT I think you all for tuning in to this hour of invest talk and reminder that the contents are reminder, uh, to tell your friends and family spread the word about best talk and two and tomorrow i'll have more for you and make sure you can get your ah your podcast anytime at itunes spotify group play and be sure to read and review on itunes as well and hope you've heard that the method podcasts available in video form over on youtube channel so head over there and subscribe and remember we can help you Better understand europa filial dynamics, improve your investment results and calculate your risk number just by heading over two best talk dog tom talking on the portfolio review button and stay free service this investor independence should success good .

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