cover of episode From Thesis to Meme to Fund: Building American Dynamism

From Thesis to Meme to Fund: Building American Dynamism

2025/3/11
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#entrepreneurship and startups#politics and government#national defense#tech entrepreneurship challenges#political leadership#international trade dynamics#ai research#elite challenges People
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(旁白)
德国基督教民主联盟主席,2025年德国总理候选人,长期从事金融政策和法律工作。
D
David Ulevitch
K
Katherine Boyle
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@Katherine Boyle : 我始终乐观,作为早期投资者,我看到了巨大的机遇。三年前提出的"建设美国活力"的理念,如今已发展成为一个拥有6亿美元资金的基金,这超出了所有人的预期。这一运动的快速发展,反映了创始人建设实体世界的热情,以及乌克兰战争等外部因素的影响。我们从论文到梗图再到产品,这个过程比预期的快得多。"美国活力"并非仅仅局限于国防和航空航天,还涵盖教育、农业、制造业、材料科学、能源等多个领域。它代表着一种积极的、建设性的力量,旨在改善美国的各个方面。我们使用"美国"这个词,在当时是具有争议性的,因为科技行业通常是全球化的。但如今,这一理念已得到广泛认可。我们投资的公司运营模式与其他公司不同,他们需要与政府客户进行特殊合作,并理解政府事务。 我们今年的"美国活力50强"榜单重点关注印太地区,特别是台湾,因为该地区是美国公司关注和准备应对的焦点。许多公司关注的是未来五到十年的潜在冲突,而不是当前正在发生的冲突。中国对台湾无人机制造商的制裁,凸显了印太地区冲突对美国供应链的影响。印太地区潜在冲突可能对美国供应链、物流和能源产生重大影响,需要重新思考军事战略和技术需求。 国防领域的关键在于快速、低成本地生产可消耗系统,例如自主水面舰艇和卫星总线。太空领域将成为未来冲突的目标,因此需要能够快速部署不同有效载荷的卫星总线。硅谷需要改变其对制造业的看法,并与传统国防公司合作。政府应该承诺资助研发,并简化法规,以支持"美国活力"公司的发展。国防部需要改变其文化,以更好地支持新技术的采用,并通过竞争来选择最佳产品。吸引人才参与"美国活力"的关键在于政府的采购政策,需要选择最佳产品,而不是依赖于传统的供应商。城市应该积极吸引"美国活力"公司,并提供相应的激励措施和支持。我对人工智能在各个行业中的应用感到兴奋,并认为其发展速度将超乎想象。 @David Ulevitch : 我们需要立即开始为未来的太空竞争做准备,而不是等到20年后。"美国活力"运动的快速发展,既有市场需求的推动,也有工程师和创始人渴望参与更有意义工作的因素。SpaceX 和 Tesla 的成功,激励了工程师和创始人参与更有意义的项目。"美国活力"运动的兴起,部分源于2018年谷歌退出Maven项目后,硅谷科技人员对国家利益支持态度的转变。对"美国活力"的批评,往往忽略了其积极的内涵和对国家建设的促进作用。"美国活力"的内涵是积极的,它关乎改善教育、住房、国防和能源等各个方面。"美国活力"在硅谷引起震惊,但在华盛顿却得到迅速接受,这反映了两个地区对创新的不同看法。 为了最佳防御,美国需要在导弹、高超音速武器、电子战、空间态势感知和网络安全等领域拥有压倒性优势。美国需要加强工业供应链,特别是在机器人和人工智能驱动的制造业领域。美国需要简化法规,以促进新工厂和制造设施的建设。国防部需要改变其文化,以更好地支持新技术的采用,并通过竞争来选择最佳产品。我对"美国活力"领域的快速创新和变化感到兴奋,并认为人工智能将对各个行业产生巨大的积极影响。未来十年,奥斯汀和德克萨斯州将成为重要的制造中心。

Deep Dive

Chapters
American Dynamism, initially a thesis by Katherine Boyle, challenges the apathy towards American progress. Its controversial nature stemmed from explicitly focusing on building for the national interest, a concept viewed as taboo in the globalized tech world. The term itself and its focus on America were initially shocking to Silicon Valley but not Washington.
  • American Dynamism initially met with controversy due to its focus on national interest.
  • The term's explicit mention of 'America' was initially shocking.
  • Washington embraced the concept more readily than Silicon Valley.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
中文

The fact that this movement moved faster than any of us anticipated says something about the organic nature of founders wanting to build in the physical world. There is no negative way to interpret American dynamism. That's about improving the state of education, of housing, of defense, of energy. It's all these things that are the cornerstones and building blocks. It was shocking to Silicon Valley. It was not shocking to Washington.

What would happen to our supply chain? What are all the shipping and logistics issues that would be created? What would be the energy impact? A lot of people say there's going to be a war for space, but I think it's important people recognize there's going to be a war in space. That work has to start today. It can't start 20 years from now. It has to start now. A lot of our companies are focused on the fight of the future, not the one happening today.

The United States of America has embodied excellence for centuries. Whether it was the Wright brothers taking flight in 1903 or the invention of the transistor in 1947. How about the moon landing in 1969? Or the birth of the internet in 1984? All of these humanity-shaping innovations were built on American soil. So when did it become taboo to believe in America?

Well, three years ago, A16Z general partner Catherine Boyle wrote a thesis called Building American Dynamism. Like few others at the time, Catherine's words were unafraid. She discussed America's apathy toward progress and the country's institutional failure. But equally, that decline did not need to be our destiny.

In coining the term American dynamism, Catherine said, quote, End quote.

So today, for the first time ever, you'll get to hear Katherine and her partner in crime, A16Z General Partner David Yulevich, discuss the origins of this thesis, which quickly led to a meme and now is a $600 million dedicated fund. So why was American dynamism controversial in the first place? And what will it take to bring Washington and Silicon Valley back together? Plus, how dynamic is America in today's great power competition? And where are we the furthest behind?

In this episode, we tie these questions together by discussing the third generation of our American Dynamism 50 list, a compilation of top companies building toward the national interest with a focus of this year's list on the Indo-Pacific. If you'd like to check out the full list of 50 companies from all over our country, head on over to a16z.com slash 8050. And of course, we'll include a link in our show notes. Okay, let's get started.

As a reminder, the content here is for informational purposes only, should not be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice, or be used to evaluate any investment or security, and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any A16Z fund. Please note that A16Z and its affiliates may also maintain investments in the companies discussed in this podcast. For more details, including a link to our investments, please see a16z.com slash disclosures.

So it's been about three years since the term, the thesis, American Dynamism came to be. Tell us more about the origins and where we've come since then.

Do you and I constantly reflect on this? Because I am the eternal optimist, early stage investor, only see roses. And if you had told me three years ago that we would be where we are today as a thesis, as a fund, as a group of founders who are building the national interest, I wouldn't have believed you. There's just no way that anyone could have predicted how quickly this movement took hold. And people inside of Andreessen Horowitz know that I have this little framework for how I describe the sort of meme magic of Andreessen Horowitz.

And I say we always go from thesis to meme to product. And I would have assumed that sort of meme cycle of putting out something that's a really well-thought, serious piece of, this is our thesis, this is where we're going to focus, and

seeing sort of the broader community meme it and allow it to evolve with the help of founders, with the help of engineers, I thought that would take 10 years. I thought we'd be sitting here in 10 years saying, okay, we have a fund, it's incredible that American dynamism is something that every fund is taking seriously. So the fact that we've done it in three and the fact that this movement moved faster than any of us anticipated says something about the organic nature of founders wanting to build in the physical world

coupled with things like the war in Ukraine. You know, we launched the thesis three weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. And so I think there were just a number of factors, the combination of the founders, the moment, the Capitol really saying this is something that is needed, and it really resonating across the board.

Yeah, I think it's happened faster than either one of us ever expected. I think that all of the sort of demand polls that Catherine just mentioned were there. The world needed this. America needed this. People needed change and they wanted people to start building for things that mattered. But I think there was a supply side change as well. I think all the engineers and founders were hungry for doing something that was more meaningful. I think they wanted to tackle bigger problems. They wanted to do things.

They saw things like SpaceX starting to really actually happen, like launch what's happening. And this idea that that could be made real just seemed much more tangible than ever before.

People watched what happened with Tesla. Remember, it started with the Roadster, but then all of a sudden it became Commonplace. And there was a supercharging network that was created. And I think people just recognize, hey, wait a minute, I don't need to be optimizing ad clicks, which is fine if they want to do that. But instead, they can really spend their time building things that they feel really, really proud about that really serve an important mission.

Even in some of the origins where some of the AD companies started, it was after Google bailed out of Project Maven and people in Silicon Valley were really trying to figure out what was important, how do I want to spend my time? And those early seeds blossomed into what now Catherine coined as the American dynamism practice.

So even though the practice and the fun came a little bit later, there were lots of seeds that had been planted even as early as 2018. So I think you're seeing a crescendo that had gained momentum. And then I think we were able to really capitalize on that. And I actually still think we're just in the earliest innings. Completely. Can I just ask about that in particular? The note about the fact that there was a period of time where actually many technologists were not just...

careful with supporting the national interest, but actually in some cases actively against it, right? They weren't able to support some of the initiatives that now, quite frankly, I think the Overton window has changed and now they're not just willing but jumping to support those things. But you mentioned memes, Catherine, like the term American dynamism did this

of supporting the national interest? Did it need a rebranding? And how effective do you think, again, something like American Dynamism, which is so compelling, what role did that play, if any? You said something interesting there, which was, did it need a rebranding? And there was no brand. There wasn't.

There was no concept. The idea of building for the national interest when we said it was extremely controversial, even three years ago. Like the reason why I think people were stunned was partially because of the name, because we actually said the word America.

For decades, it was very taboo to say you were building only for one country. Tech was by its nature global. You build software, you want to see it go completely international. Like the idea that you would say, no, actually there are companies by law that can't sell to other countries. And we have an entire regulatory regime around how those companies are built, who they can work with, who our allies are. And we need to respect that. We actually need to build a practice because those companies are going to be the next phase of innovation.

Today it's seen as this is an obvious thesis, but even a couple years ago that was seen as, are you crazy? Are our limited partners going to get behind that? Are engineers going to want to say they're building for the national interest? The language that we used was very specific because it signified a specific type of company that is highly regulated, that builds in the physical world, that has to worry about the status of their engineers and can they get top secret clearances. So I think in some ways we named it that

One, because it exemplifies what we are doing here. We didn't name it defense tech, right? We named it dynamism, which is so important to the actual thing that we are building. But the fact that we said America, I do think was shocking. I still think it shocks people. But when you actually look at the companies and how they're building, they're working with the different states that they operate in. They're selling to various levels of government. And they understand the seriousness of building a company like that, where the language actually does matter.

Can you comment on that from the perspective of it being controversial when it first came out? And obviously, you take a firm like A16Z. We do have LPs. We do have other funds even within the firm. Can you just talk a little bit more about that inception period and the reaction within the industry personally?

Yeah, it's always been funny, I think, to Catherine and I when we think about the occasional criticisms we would hear. People sometimes would say American dynamism, like it doesn't mean anything. But obviously it means something because it's galvanized the whole movement. And they would say, it's just this marketing thing. And I would say to myself, well, wait a minute, what company doesn't have marketing? Like what enterprise software company is not going to have a marketing team or a marketing department? Who doesn't put together marketing materials to explain what they're about, what they stand for, what they do? Like who doesn't want marketing? Like you say, like it's this pejorative.

But it's like, what kind of idiot would run a company without marketing? If we went to a board meeting and a company said, "We're getting rid of marketing," that's not happening. And the mental gymnastics that people now go through to avoid saying American dynamism when they really, really want to say American dynamism. We have competitors that go to just incredible, incredible lengths to come up with alternative phrasing to not say American dynamism, industrial revolution, resilience. It's like, okay, those are all good words.

but they're all encompassed by American dynamism. And the other thing about American dynamism was just so clear early on that it's only positive. It only has a positive connotation. There is no negative way to interpret American dynamism. It doesn't mean that the rest of the world has to be conquered or suffers. It's not any of those things. All it says is that we want to promote American dynamism. And people can hear that and say, you know what? That's about improving the state of education.

of housing, of defense, of energy. It's all these things that are the cornerstones and building blocks. And so there wasn't as much criticism. People just brushed it aside like any new thing or they didn't want to acknowledge how good of an idea it was. But because it was such a good idea and it really, I think, resonated with the builders and the founders, it really did galvanize this sort of overwhelming momentum. Kind of like Catherine says, the meme takes hold quickly. Like good ideas do spread virally very, very fast. And with our LPs,

Even today, there is still a little bit of an effort to convince them it's not just about defense. Defense is an important part of it, but it's not just about defense. But I think now, three years in, they recognize that there's things like public safety, which they had never really imagined as being part of American dynamism, are now increasingly important cornerstones of what we're doing. One thing I'll add to what you just said, it was shocking to Silicon Valley. It was not shocking to Washington. Right.

And I think that's also really important. Like the term American dynamism is a term that you would hear in D.C. in all sorts of contexts to refer to the innovation they care about. So it was not surprising at all to Washington. I actually think it was embraced immediately. But that goes to show you just the gulf between how D.C. views innovation and how Silicon Valley views innovation and how in some ways this practice wants to push those two worlds closer together.

but it certainly wasn't controversial in Washington. I think when we go to DC, it is exceptionally embraced. People are so excited that Silicon Valley is building for these categories. And from day one, the people in Washington got it.

It was more of a surprise for the people in Silicon Valley, many of whom who still had funds that were operating in China. It was more of a surprise for them. And now I don't think it's a surprise for anyone. I think everyone gets the thesis and is on board with the message. There were so many other terms that people would try to use before American Dynamism that I think either made no sense or didn't capture it. I mean, forget about the fact that they didn't galvanize a lot of excitement, but like deep tech, frontier tech, hard tech.

It was like, what does hard tech mean? Lots of things are hard. What does deep tech mean? We never used those terms because frankly, they just never made any sense. And they also were just boring, stupid terms. They weren't galvanizing, that's for sure. Maybe one...

thing to clarify for folks, because I think you called it out, do you? A lot of people associate American dynamism specifically with defense and maybe aerospace, but there's so much more to that story. So I'd love for either one of you to just clarify, what are the other areas of American dynamism? How do you view the overarching nature of supporting the national interest?

Anybody that thinks that they're building in the national interest can take a really broad lens as to what that means. And we welcome those people. I think as Catherine will say, the tent is big and we welcome anybody into that tent. Doesn't mean we're going to be investing in all those areas. But if somebody, whether they're working in areas of education, agriculture, manufacturing, material sciences, battery sciences, different kinds of chemistry and chemicals and things that are really critical to our national and our industrial supply chain.

energy. We have this insatiable thirst for energy in this country. All these things are part of American dynamism. Defense is obviously a part of it and the manufacturing base and the entire defense industrial base and supply chain that goes along with it. Logistics, trucking, there's all these things that people, I think, underestimate the impact that technology can have in these categories.

and all these things have such a positive and beneficial impact on America. Obviously, healthcare and education, those things are just key parts of what people think of as part of the American dream.

Yeah. I always say if there's an executive department in Washington that exists to regulate or oversee an industry, that is likely American dynamism. So think Department of Energy, Department of Defense, Department of State, FBI. Like we see public safety as a huge component of American dynamism. And it really is these categories where there's just strong civic interest, like where Americans say, this is why we have a government. These are the services that government is supposed to support us on.

And as D.U. said, it's a very wide array of places that we cover.

But the real fundamental reason why we built a fund and a practice is because these companies sell in very different ways than all of the other companies in our portfolio. And this is something that I think DU and I saw in the early days before we even had a practice where these one-off companies had these extraordinary business models, whether it's something like Anduril or SpaceX or Flock Safety. They're all very different, but government is like their core customer and they have to figure out how to work with their core customer in a very bespoke way. And

You know, in D.C., they have what they call federal practices, right? But Silicon Valley had no concept of what does a federal practice look like. You never heard that word in Silicon Valley. I often say D.C. got what we were doing a lot earlier than the people in Silicon Valley. But now it's just an obvious thing. Of course, there's all these companies that want to work with government. They're going to need different types of operating teams. They're going to need a different go-to-market motion. They're going to have to understand this weird term called government affairs.

So in some ways, it's like these companies operate very differently. So I want to pivot to talking about the American Dynamism 50 and talk about some of those companies that are building toward the national interest.

This is the third year of the 80-50, and every year you've chosen to shift its focus and talk about something specific. This year, it is the Indo-Pacific. Can we just start there? And maybe for some folks, they hear that question, and it's a trite one. But for others, maybe it's less obvious. Can you speak to why this year's 80-50 is focused on the Indo-Pacific?

I think it's a good call out that every year we sit around and we say, what is the big story of American Dynamism for the year? So last year, we really focused on the intersection of artificial intelligence and American Dynamism. And I think we've been very focused on investing in that trend, but also we've seen a lot of robotics companies. And this year, I think we really said, what is the commonality between our portfolio? What are our companies talking about?

And what really, really has been the focus, not only in Washington, but also of our companies, is this sort of Indo-Pacific, but Taiwan. That is the thing they are talking about. That is the thing they are preparing for. And we looked through our portfolio. It actually came up because I was fortunate enough to go with a group in government to the border of Ukraine.

And one of the things when I came back, I looked at our portfolio and I said, we've really been investing more for the fight of the future. And to use David's term, a lot of our companies are focused on the fight of the future, not the one happening today. That is something where when we sat down and looked at our portfolio, we were overwhelmed with just how many companies are really focused on this

I would say five to 10 year out, what could the world look like versus what's happening on the ground today? And we really wanted to highlight that in the companies that we chose this year. The other thing that has shifted us

toward what is happening in Taiwan and what could be the ramifications for the United States and her allies. We have a company that makes drones. It's an American-made drone manufacturer. Most of their parts and components come from the United States, but they have a battery that comes from China. And they sold some drones to an organization in Taiwan and they got sanctioned by China.

and they were no longer allowed to buy batteries from China. And obviously that company figures out some alternative path to get batteries from another country, and that's okay, although it's difficult because a lot of batteries are manufactured in China. But that moment really, for me, said, hey, wait a minute. This isn't just about getting ready for the next kinetic fight

with a near peer or exact peer adversary, but it's really about understanding what are all the different components and things that would be affected if we actually got into a major conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. What would happen to our supply chain? What do we get, whether it's motors, actuators, components that we need for all the things that go into our manufacturing base, our defense industrial base? What are all the shipping and logistics issues that would be created?

What would be the energy impact if we lost our ability to trade and bring in goods from the entire region, not just from China, but from elsewhere, from Vietnam, from the Philippines? What are all the things that would change if we actually got into a kinetic fight in the Indo-Pekong region? Do the old platform carrier groups work where we can bring a flotilla around an aircraft carrier of destroyers and have a week to get ready for a fight? Or do we need a thousand drones that are autonomous in a swarm?

Do we need to rethink the way submersibles work and the way that unmanned surface vessels work? And so I think when we saw a little taste of this in the Ukraine, this is the moment in time to start asking those questions and say, what are the companies that are going to matter if we get into a real conflict? Which hopefully we never do. But if we do, what are the things that are going to matter most? This is just the beginning. I think you'll expect us to spend more time thinking about the fight of the future, but not just from a kinetic lens, from an actual armed conflicts lens,

But what does it really mean if our supply chain lines got disrupted and we got a taste of this during COVID? But what happens when it really freezes and really paralyzes? How does America respond? How do we get ready? And what are the opportunities for our companies?

Yeah. What does it mean to be really prepared? And at the outset of the 80-50, you actually paint this scenario, which to your point, hopefully this never happens. But you say this is not an abstract risk. The PRC is engaged in the largest peacetime military buildup since World War II with an industrial advantage in warships, drones, and other weapons of war. It has spent years pressuring the U.S.

and its allies, attacking civilian vessels, cutting undersea cables, and engaging in simulated war games just miles from Taiwan's shores. It is an expansionist power preparing for war. So if this is true, how do we prepare? And also maybe how prepared are we today?

It's not abstract. As you mentioned, our companies are getting sanctioned. It is in some ways surreal to work with great founders that are finding out that they're sanctioned by China. And so it is a very real risk. But I think the thing that in some ways should be hopeful for us is that this is why the American dynamism practice exists.

Five years ago, people didn't see that this was an actual reality. We now have a generation of founders who have started building and are meeting the demands. The 80-50 list, which I encourage everyone to read because I think it answers your question very deeply, is what are all of these companies across different sectors doing and how are they going to help prepare? But I think what we hope people take away from this list is there's a lot of

Sometimes hysteria about, okay, it's terrifying that we're not more prepared or it's terrifying that this could potentially happen. And here are 50 companies that have been working on this, putting their head down, building in the physical world, doing the hard thing day in, day out, recruiting talent to this mission. And we should be celebrating that they were early and right. And now for a quick word from our friends at OddLots.

I'm Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. And together we host the OddLots podcast. Join us each week as we chat with those in the know to understand what's really going on behind the biggest stories in business, finance, and market. Whether it's Nassim Taleb, Steve Eisman, or Betsy Cohen, we always have the perfect guest. The OddLots podcast by Bloomberg. You can find us wherever you get your podcasts.

So let's jump in there. What are the categories that you would maybe break down as really critical to us being prepared? And then maybe let's talk about some of those companies in each of the categories.

I think our view that's shared by I think many people in the government that having just overwhelming capabilities is the best deterrence and it's the best defense. And that means making sure from a kinetic capability, do we have the most advanced missiles? Do we have hypersonic capabilities? Do we have the most advanced electronic warfare capabilities? Can we navigate in contested communications environments? Do we have total space domain awareness? Do we have complete superiority in the space domain?

I think people kind of laughed a little bit in Trump's first term when he created the Space Force, you know, and they had the Star Trek uniforms. But people don't understand, like, you know, that wasn't early. Maybe it was on time. If anything, it was late. That the space domain is one of the most important domains as we think about the fight of the future and what that looks like.

I think cybersecurity, not just cybersecurity for enterprises and for individuals, but cybersecurity for our entire industrial manufacturing base. All these machines and systems and industrial control systems we have, the water treatment plants, the electrical grid, the utility, cybersecurity for that entire domain is critically important. We've now connected all these things, whether it's on warships,

in the naval fleet, whether it's in the Air Force and in the air, or if it's just like how we actually live our lives in the United States, we have all these things now that are internet connected, internet controlled, internet monitored. So there's a lot more cybersecurity companies today that are completely focused on an entirely new threat surface around the defense industrial base that needs to be protected, the utility and energy grid in the United States. And then the other thing is we need to be able to generate and transmit

move energy very rapidly and at massive scale. And so there's a lot of energy projects that I think are critically important to just having robust and reliable defense in the United States and abroad, wherever we need to bring the fight.

To your point about the fact that we can even call out 50 companies each year building towards these spaces versus maybe the perception that the everyday American has, which is that there's like a few primes and that's it. I think that's important to highlight, right, that there are numerous companies building these new capabilities.

And it should be household names. Yeah, not only was it not hard to find 50 companies, there's way more companies. We can't possibly include them all. We actually could have made the AD 250, but we just try to draw the line somewhere so that we think it's a great list, but it is not the exhaustive canonical list. Catherine, do you want to talk about some of the defense companies?

Yeah, so defense, but I also like to call out production. These companies are a little different when people think of, as you said, the primes. What the primes are really, really falling behind on is how quickly and cheaply they can produce what's known as attritable systems. Instead of creating battleships and aircraft carriers, can you create small modular products, ASVs, autonomous surface vessels? Can you build the satellite bus very quickly? Used to be that if you wanted to put something in space, it would take you three to five years. Now it can take you less than three months.

So in some ways, I think the common theme among all of our defense companies is focus on modularity, focus on attritable systems, and focus on production. So everyone is familiar with the great work that Anduril is doing across a number of programs that are going to be very important for the region. We're also investors in Ceronic, which is focused on maritime and attritable autonomous surface vessels that they've built in various sizes that have been very important to the U.S. Navy. We're investors in Apex, which is

Similarly, building small modular buses that can be sent to low Earth orbit for various different types of payloads. I like what David said about space domain awareness is important. It's because a lot of people say there's going to be a war for space, but I think it's important people recognize there's going to be a war in space. That when you have that much critical infrastructure in low Earth orbit...

it will become a target. And so you have to be able to send up buses as quickly as possible with different types of payloads that can do monitoring, that can potentially take both offensive and defensive actions. And companies that are doing that and building these attributable systems for space will be even more important in the future. So high volume production and really focus on the attributable nature of a lot of these systems.

It's encouraging for sure to see the 50 and as you said, the many hundreds of companies building this space. But I'd love to probe you on the question of if we're realistic, where are we furthest behind? And maybe another way to pose that question is where would you like to see more founders working? Where would you like to see more investment going? Where would you say that there's a big enough gap that we need to fill?

It's a good question. I think we've always shied away from giving the like request for startups ideas to people because we just think the best founders come up with the best ideas and open our eyes to a huge gap or a huge opportunity. That said, we are at this really interesting technology moment where manufacturing is being reshored.

AI is going to have just a tremendous impact on the way we think of technology, whether they're kinetic systems, whether they're targeting and guidance systems, whether they're autonomy systems. You're going to see robotics play just a massive role in manufacturing and driving rapid scale manufacturing. I think Elon made a comment once because he's working on a sort of a humanoid robot where he thinks there might be three robots for every human on earth. So I think that would put us somewhere between 22 and 30 billion robots.

Let's say he's just off by half. Let's just say he's wrong by a factor of two, which I don't know, but that still would be 15 billion robots. That's a lot of robots.

All those robots are going to need software, computer vision capabilities. They're going to need motors and actuators and all kinds of other components that need to be made. And if we are in a fight in the Indo-Pacific region, we're not going to get those motors and actuators from China. Shenzhen is like the capital of that kind of component. And so we need to have a really, really robust industrial supply chain to get those things. Recently, I was with some government officials from Europe.

And they were asking like, what can Europe do? Europe, there's no growth. There's all these issues in Europe. And she said, look, Europe has a huge opportunity. And there's countries like Germany that have always been leaders, whether it's in chemicals manufacturing, industrial manufacturing, automotive manufacturing, they have a real opportunity to be the center of the universe for the next industrial age that's robotic driven and AI driven.

I think the United States has that same opportunity. I think our neighbors to the north and south have similar opportunities. I think there's opportunity everywhere, but people need to figure out what are the veins that they want to mine and really go after. Sometimes if we really talk about all the areas of opportunity, it can make you quite cynical or despondent or think that we're totally screwed because everything is terrible, everything is wrong. We're so dependent on China from a supply chain standpoint. And yet we know that this is actually what America does her best.

This is when people really get resourceful. They find ways to solve problems and build new companies. And I think we're starting to see the beginnings of that now. And I think we're going to see a lot more of that going forward. One area I'll highlight is the manufacturing area. And I think what should make people hopeful is a couple years ago, there was a view in Silicon Valley that if you wanted to build anything to do with manufacturing, you needed to manufacture the product and you had to be a prime manufacturer.

And that actually was seen as somewhat adversarial to the traditional companies in Washington. And of course, that had to be the way that you would do it 10 years ago. Startups weren't working with these companies. And so Anduril had to pioneer that we are going to be a new prime. We have a number of companies in our portfolio that are manufacturing aerospace and defense parts, as in the case of Hadrian, where the factory is the actual product. They are building factories that are going to support

existing defense industrial base. We're also investors in Senra, companies that are building wire harnesses, the things that actually go into these products that are very important for defense, and they can sell to both primes and new space and new defense. And so I think that's what's also exciting as you're seeing the focus on not just building the products and vertically integrating, which Silicon Valley is very good at, but you're also seeing these companies form that really want to be the back

of the new defense industrial base. And they have figured out new ways to manufacture faster. They bring in software. So for people who are really looking at, okay, what can we do in manufacturing? How can we reassure? You have these companies that are really, I would say, doing a lot of R&D on this automation that you can bring to the factory floor. And that should be very exciting for people.

There's also kind of a vibe shift in Washington where companies that work in the manufacturing and industrial spaces or the chemical spaces, there's a lot of places in this country where it's very hard to open up a new factory, to start a new factory. There's all kinds of regulatory restrictions and things that make it difficult to do the hard work that is required to build some of these kinds of facilities. These are not just rocket fuel facilities, but even just basic industrial facilities and manufacturing facilities.

And there's an appetite and I think an awareness in Washington, and it's even quite a bipartisan thing to recognize, look, we got to make it easier to allow founders and companies to build these kinds of facilities. We have to not allow too much red tape to get in the way of us opening up the new kinds of whether they're shipyards or manufacturing facilities that are desperately needed because that work has to start today. It can't start 20 years from now. It has to start now. And I think that that has been a major shift in Washington.

Completely. And maybe we can just touch on that directly. It sounded like you try to stay away from a wish list in terms of what you want founders to build because there's just so much opportunity.

Maybe the same question going for the kind of regulatory action that you might like to see in Washington. Are there specific actions from the policy perspective that you would like to see that would take these 50 companies and many more and allow them to thrive and ignite the kind of innovation and bring in the kind of founders that you know exist in technology and otherwise into this sphere? Is there a wish list, especially now that we have a new administration? I

I think there's a very long wish list, but some of the basic ones are just like, look, there's lots of opportunities that the government wants solved. They just need to commit that, look, if someone's going to go after these problems, they're going to pick a winner and guarantee an outcome. We will happily fund the R&D efforts of our companies. And they don't have to say that we will guarantee it'll be this company. That's okay. We can take that risk. We think we can go find the best companies. But they sometimes need to say, look, if you go build a hypersonic missile at this price point, we will guarantee that we will buy a billion dollars worth of them.

We will provide the greased wheels to enable facilities and manufacturing and factories to be built and created. I think the government can really be a partner and the regulators can really be enablers and not people that are putting up roadblocks and red tape. The regulators can really say, hey, look, these are the priorities and the projects that matter to the United States over the next

five, 10, 15, 20 years. And if you build them, we will commit to supporting them and buying them. And that we'll have a process that favors the best product and the best companies and not just the legacy incumbents. I 100% agree with that. And D and I have now been going to Washington for a decade, right? Saying the same thing over and over and over again. You don't have to have procurement reform. We're not

Pollyannish. We don't think there needs to be a big thing. You already have the mechanisms to be able to award contracts to the companies that are producing the best products. You just need to use them. And I think I'm more convinced that there is a cultural problem inside the DOD. And the thing that I'm most hopeful about is that you're finally seeing people across the DOD, but particularly in Secretary Hegg's confirmation hearing, he explicitly said we need new technologies to be in the hands of the warfighter.

And hearing it at the highest level during a confirmation hearing that that's going to be one of his priorities, that makes me think that there is going to be a strong cultural change and that it's not just going to be lip service anymore. Like we need to actually use the authorities we have to be able to give the best companies contracts to make them compete against each other, to use the beautiful system of capitalism that works in every other industry aside from defense, right? And actually have these companies compete better.

Best product wins, we buy a bunch of them, and that company is the one that's going to continue serving a contract. And we have not had that for decades. And that is why the budget has ballooned. I think now that you have Doge, other initiatives, and particularly an administration that is focused on saving the taxpayer money, they're going to find that these companies are actually, that is their goal, to save the taxpayer money, to produce the best products, the cheapest, the fastest, and to make sure they get into the hands of the warfighter when needed.

Catherine, you mentioned this gulf between San Francisco and Washington. And as you're speaking, I'm reflecting on the fact that so many technologists perhaps do gravitate towards the consumer sphere because there are clear rules to the game. There are clear things that if they compete, if they do the best, they win. And

As you're talking about some of that reform, I also wonder what else we can do to incentivize technologists to participate in this space. Even within the AD50, we've mentioned Andrel and Palmer Luckey, previously from Oculus. We see a few other founders on the list, Robinhood co-founder Bajou Bop, now creating Aetherflux.

What else can we do here to get those kind of individuals participating in this road towards American dynamism? Honestly, I think there are so many people who want to build for this category. It is incredible to see people like Beju say, hey, I built a massive, important company called Robinhood, and now I'm going to do something even harder. Like, it is incredible to see that level of talent wanting to come into the sector. So I don't think we have a talent problem. I don't think we have a recruiting problem. I think if the

government says, hey, we need X, Y, and Z. X, Y, and Z will be built faster than they can possibly imagine. The biggest problem is we need to procure the things that are built, the best products, and we need to be ruthless about what is the best. Not whatever company I've known for 50 years is the

person I'm going to give the contract to, which is how Washington used to do business. And I think we are at this moment where enough people have realized that is not the best way to do business. We need to give it to the best companies and we need to be ruthless about the competition and make sure that the best companies are being awarded contracts. So I'm hopeful. 10 years in, I'm hopeful. I'm hopeful. This is the moment. Again, it's always roses to me. So maybe I'll be wrong on this, but I am very hopeful that we're finally going to see that.

Let's also talk about geography. So something that I thought was interesting from this list is that we had 15 cities on it. The three cities that dominated were L.A., San Francisco, and D.C. at 17, 13, and 4 companies, respectively.

Perhaps to some folks, you know, they hear us talking about D.C. and Silicon Valley. So perhaps those two cities are no surprise. But for those who maybe aren't familiar with the Gundo, for example, why L.A.? Why has that become such a welcoming place for American dynamism companies or anything you call out there about how not just at the federal level, but the regional level can play a role in really fostering that kind of engagement? Yeah.

Southern California and Los Angeles in particular have always been huge epicenters of both innovation, the defense industrial base. It's been the home to JPL. NASA's had a major presence there. And so there's always been a bunch of aerospace engineering history and just legacy there. And then Elon put SpaceX in El Segundo, which means all the talent that he started to aggregate

came to that area. And so I think that's one of the reasons why LA tops the charts and El Segundo in particular. And then Southern California, Camp Pendleton is based there. Naval Air Station Miramar is there. San Diego has a major military presence across the Marines and the Navy. I think the Blue Angels are still based in San Diego. And so there's just been a huge ecosystem down there, which makes it a great place to build.

The other thing I would say is you need to know what an incredibly high bar for talent looks like. So if you've worked at an Android or a SpaceX or a Palantir, you know what startup success looks like. You've been in a company where you get to work with the smartest people, working the longest hours, shipping the fastest, delivering just exceptional outcomes and exceptional results.

But now a lot of those founders, they don't have to be in Silicon Valley. We're just finding more and more of those founders. Take Garrett from Fox Safety. He's based in Atlanta. He did Y Combinator almost a decade ago, but he's now based and built the company in Atlanta,

And we're seeing more and more founders like that. In fact, Catherine mentioned Apex Space. Ian Cinnamon has spent time in Silicon Valley, but is now building Apex Space in the LA area. And he's doing that because the customers are there. There's a whole ecosystem developing there. And so the flywheel to build a real startup ecosystem is really happening there where there's talent. There's other startups and companies there. There's customers there. There's the ability to do manufacturing there. There's much more of an industrial ecosystem down there. And so they're right in the epicenter of where it's all happening.

If I can make a prediction, I actually think we shouldn't sleep on Texas. Austin is really becoming a really interesting production and manufacturing hub. I think part of the reason for that is because of Elon and moving so many of the facilities for both Tesla to Austin. That has really changed the game in terms of the talent that's there. But if we're going to make predictions about 10 years from now, I think Austin will definitely be a manufacturing hub and Texas in general will be a good place to build.

Yeah. What is there to say about how these different cities, instead of being hostile, as we have seen some jurisdictions be to whether it's defense or technology overall, how should cities be thinking about

welcoming these different companies. An example, obviously, is Anduril is building Arsenal One in Columbus, Ohio. We also saw all kinds of cities, as I mentioned, on the 8050, whether it's Cleveland or Denver. You mentioned Austin. We also saw Houston, Santa Barbara, right? It's very cool to see the distribution of these companies. And so I guess coming back to the question of

How would you advise, whether it's a city council, whether it's someone at the state level, about thinking about how to bring in these companies and, again, not be hostile and instead figure out how to bring in this really valuable talent? Well, there's sort of classical incentive packages that I think cities are well-equipped. You know, it's like they want to bring in these jobs so they'll compete against each other and they'll think about things like tax incentives and different opportunities like that. But I think sometimes cities overlook just incentives.

the importance of having a ton of space and removing the red tape for these companies to be able to operate, companies be able to do the sort of experimentation and development and production they need. So I think in many ways, there's not like a one size fits all, but I would very much encourage all of the cities to meet with these companies, to meet with them early,

And then say, what is the big thing that would change your mind about coming here? What is the thing that you were looking for? And really tailor and craft packages to bring these companies to their cities. I mean, what's great is we're seeing early stage companies have these bake-offs for their next facility or their next city that they're going to be building in.

And cities are really good at that. Like they know that these jobs are important and these are high value jobs. So you don't have to be the size of an Anduril and you don't have to have that size of facility to really get a city excited. But I don't think it's one size fits all. Every company has different needs. So it really is taking the time to get to know these companies and figure out how you can be most helpful to them.

As we close out, I'd love to hear both of your perspectives on just what you're most excited about, where the ball is moving in 2025. I mean, I'm most excited about just the pace of change and the pace of innovation, both on the government side and in our world.

Every day feels like it's just so much change. It feels like we're in this accelerated timeline across all things, not just innovation, but culture, politics, everything is accelerated and everything is heightened. And to me, that is the perfect time to start building. You want to catch that wave. You want to be part of something like that. You want to live in that timeline. And so I'm just enthused because I think we're going to see companies we never thought possible. I think we're going to see extraordinary founders say, I want to build in this space.

And I'm just excited to work with them. And I think that what we thought might take, again, five, 10 years is going to take two. And we're already seeing that in our own portfolio. And so if you're on the fence about starting an American dynamism company today, I would say do it because two years from now, I think the acceleration and the pace that you will see in this category will be nothing short of extraordinary. I'm always excited about the future. But I think that people just wildly underestimate the impact that AI is going to have

We have a nuclear power company, Radiant Nuclear. And so Radiant Nuclear is obviously, they have to go through a regulatory process. It is very paperwork heavy. And there are now multiple startups that are just using AI to better facilitate the regulatory process to help you understand where are you going through these different checklists and requirements for regulatory approval. We have a company we've looked at that helps facilitate foreign military sales, but using AI to navigate this process.

massive, complex regulatory environment where you have to deal with classified information, who has access to classified information, dealing with who gets the information, how do you facilitate these foreign military sales? Things that are critical to the defense industrial base, but that are really being enabled and unlocked and accelerated by AI. I think people still wildly underestimate the positive impact that AI is going to have across every industry, from defense to healthcare to manufacturing to transportation, logistics, energy, you name it.

And I think for the first time, Washington is like, okay, we know we need to change. We want to make sure that America just has unrivaled superiority and is the greatest place on earth for people to live, where people want to build their businesses, build their lives. I think we underestimate how fast some of this is going to happen.

Yeah, the vibe shift has been very real and it's been amazing to see how quickly it's changed your point to you around AI. We'll have to direct folks to last year's 8050. I know a lot has changed since then in AI, but that gives folks a glimpse of all the ways that AI is impacting all the categories within American dynamism. So we'll make sure to link to that and also this year's Indo-Pacific 8050. Thank you both so much for joining this podcast, but then also for all your building in American dynamism. Thank you. Thanks so much, Seth. Thank you.

All right. If you did make it this far, don't forget to go check out our full American Dynamism 50 list, a compilation of the top companies building toward the national interest with this year's focus on the Indo-Pacific. Go check out the full list, which covers companies from all over the country at asexy.com slash 8050. You can also click the link in our show notes, including links to our prior two years of the 8050. All right. We'll see you next time.