How to Think (and Work) Like a Billion Dollar Investor | Adam Karr
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How do we go about selecting the game that we're playing .

in life painting about what game is IT that you're playing. And so just using the investing landscape, IT surprises me all the time that um people don't think about that more deeply and you see this over and over again in markets.

And there's a whole continue one into the continuum, the the augus they're scraping to the middle to a day trader, to the the hetch phones and pod shops that are treating on a catalyst to all the rock man who like to talk about, you know, I want to look eighteen to us. So we consider ourselves long term. Investors were trying to take a four to five year view to be infinite investors, right? Depending on what game you're playing, you're going to approach IT quite differently. And to a really important question, I see IT over over even today, people in the business for years of like but what game you playing and being really clear and thoughtful about that and then really leaning into them playing to that, I think makes a huge different.

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in life using the investing landscape? IT surprises me all the time that um people don't think about that more deeply. If you see this over and over again, the markets and there's a whole continuing from you know one into the continuum, the the augus that are scraping to the midst. Second, right, that's their game. And if that's your game, you have to do certain things.

You have to invest infrastructure in capacity to a day trader to the the hetch phones and pod jobs that are trading on a catalyst and around a quarter to call IT stay and drug Miller who like to talk about, you know, I want to look eighteen months out to us so we consider ourselves long term investors or try to take a four to five year view to be infinite investors right above who is trying to own things forever, right? As a huge continuing. But depending on what game you're playing, you're going to approach IT quite differently. And to a really important question, and I see IT over and over even today, people in the business for years of like but what game you playing and being really clear and thoughts about that and then really leaning into them playing to that, I think makes a huge different I mean, theory.

You're not going to be good if you're playing a long term. You're not going to be good at day trading because the skills and the environment necessary to be successful with those two things are sort of oppose. How do you think about buffett and his style changing four or five times over the course of his career? You know, he was never a day trader, but went from cigar bots to buying. And I wouldn't stay holding, but trading, you know, quite frequently to buying and and not trading as frequently.

How are you gonna apt your game to something that's authentic to you in a way that complete your shrink I market change? Are you even i've seen that from the time that I started them in nineties to today, right? And so you're playing to garbage, which can be very profitable um but it's difficult to scale that.

And so is his capital grew over time. You know you have to think about how you show up and how you approach. And we know that monger was also no key part of like that conversation in framing in helping more and think about what he focused on. And underneath that is thinking about how he needed to adapt based on his own size in the man of capital he was trying to deploy.

And the environment is not just, you know, the computers you might need to your day trading. It's like if you're running a public firm is how I maintain control of that firm. So we don't have an outside shareholder or commit and take control that will make me change strategy or change environment. How do you think about environment?

The role to the plays? Try to think about your obsession. You never want to compete with somebody who's obsessed like he would say waterford um he's at the gym ephorus shooting baskets are you at the gym for um because if you're not like your competing against that guy who is no, he took up tap dancing because he wanted to strength in his ankles so he could be a Better basketball yer are you obsess to that degree that you're going to undertake those kind of actions, the elements that you so you so drawn to that you're willing to do those of things and whatever the kind of that chose aspect is um is really powerful.

And if you consistently do that over time and that compounds set yourself up to play to your obsessions, I was just submitted in to you last night that I just back from japan in um the author maries is one of my favorite tes know he's like set your life up for your obsession because if you do that, like you you you're all in like you just you grinding at that in a way that very few other people will do. And so it's to the setting up your environment, the place to all of the ways that you do your best work. The other side of that um is just the concept of alignment, right? And so you might say i'm a long term investor, but you're only gonna be able to be as long term as your clients allow you to be right if you're in a position that's outside to kind of the market gentleman at that time.

And you have in your in your mind that this is something play out over four to five years, but your clients are knocking on the door and want to you're not gonna be able to play your game, right? And so you have to think going in, how am I going to communicate in a way that i'm looking at this kind of time horizon? How am I going to a attract and retain the types of clients that have genuinely have that seem kind of time horizon? Because that will empower you to actually, B M, that environment that serves you the best.

How do you find objec OS like all of the markers from the outside as an investor looking in? Because I assume you want to best with people who are upset.

It's just doing the world, you know, looking at their track record, demonstrated action. One of things that I spend a lot of time on is thinking about the question. You know, we do a lot of work before we initiate a position. We tend to take reason, sizable position, go and sit down with the team, a tunnel work in advance, really looking at their demonstrated track record. I think you want to have that conversation.

What are the questions you ask? Like what are the questions that come them on? And when you're like, if I had ten minutes with the CEO and my goal is to determine if they're obsessed, not what are the questions they're asking.

Context matters a lot. And so you can never know. You could be prepared to play jaws in the moment, but sometimes a very general question that really opens IT up and seeing where they take IT can be super helpful.

And sometimes that will be, you know, they you're putting in the C, D, and they're giving you the strip. That's not gonna really helpful, right? You got approach that very differently.

But one of the things that I tend to i'd like to go to is around culture. More often than not, they sit down with folks and they they tend to be relatively short term oriented. They want to understand something around the quarter, particular um you know profit margin point or capitalist point.

Tell me about your culture and what's important here to be successful or you know my nephew is gonna start at your company next week and what would you tell them to be successful, right? Like they probably haven't gotten that question and so they can use them what they talk about? And do you see that kind of that passion come out and then you just follow that thread? Not always, but if you can often be very telling.

we talk a bit alignment. But one aspect of alignment is sort of time, one in the average ten year for another. And p five hundred CEO.

I don't know what IT is, but IT seems pretty short. How do you go about building a long term position? Your average holding period is longer then the ever C E.

O. ten. How do you think about the mismatch between quarterly, annually, long term investing, building a company that last these are all sort of like interconnected.

Good question can often be just very simply sitting down with the CEO and take what's important to you, how they answer that can be very telling, like I want to build something special verses big, go until like hitting their quarterly guidance like very different lands, right? So I think the average S P ten years somewhere between three and four years. So to your point, IT IT, IT is relatively short.

We've very much approached his owners and we're thinking about what you what is an owner like capital allocation and defensively of business and what they're able to create over time and show up in that way asking questions around that. And in the most of that conversation, you can typically clean pretty quickly like the way in which are thinking about business. And that's an important town.

Think that's perm the reason that controlling your fate is so important to, because I often think of like cats. And this analogies is not perfect. So IT correct me here.

But the most like coaches is going into a losing team. There's a reason the old c no longer. There are most cases and it's not retirement. You know, it's sort of like being pushed out. Your incentive is I know I have three years to turn this program around like going back to the nfl thing or any sports team, i'm going to a take a risky behavior that is increasing.

I'm going to trade the first draft pec bet the farm on a player because I know at the end of the day, I have three years to win him out anyway, but then the next person comes in and you're in this increasingly worse and worse position. And then you don't get the entrance of a hundred year, two hundred year company that survives in cultures always taking a hit because it's like one hundred year preaching long term. On the other hand, taking these increasingly .

risky short term action, before I was doing public market investing, my current firm, I did um distress turn on investing private equity. Now we were often going in situations where you're going bason a valued margin, contractual value, hard acid value, very off in your changing in the management team. We're despite the assets and were going to bring the team in gonna make a difference.

What I made a pivot and I came to the public market side. Um I have very much had that mindset and IT turns out in the public market side, that's pretty difficult. Like public market turnaround, S R tough and have very low based rates for all the reasons that you are just drowning out the markets.

Tolerance for doing the hard work is very short. One can take a lot of shortcuts in doing that. And it's probably the way that I changed the most as pok market investor over the past twenty plus years is very easy to go in to turnaround situations where on bedding, on the management team, making some kind of a dramatic change like the base rates suck is very difficult to do in the.

advise. I mean, almost like I would sit down and address like you would be Better off going private and of doing this outside of the lens of the public world because you're going to be able to do IT in a Better way when you have those conversations, you could be very telling terms of how they respond, how they are going to approach IT. What their score board is, is just asking, like what are the KPI you're gonna ld that are really important to you? Talk to me about the blue print.

First step, know yourself. Second i'll be clear on the game you're playing. And in third, like have a blue print. So what do I mean like this is um invoking charlie like one of my favorite charlie quotes is take a simple idea and take IT seriously.

Everybody is that coming up should have a clear blueprints of somebody that does what they want to do, has done IT really well. A lot of time to people talk about mentors. And one of things are always frustrate to me with Young people when they asked you like art, difficult to find a turn on.

Like, right? You can have any mentor in the world that you want. There's so much out there. Like, pick somebody that you really respect and just you like, be a sponge, get obsessive or everything you can about them.

How did they do IT? What did they do? Like you can really, you can watch videos, you can read, and you really develop a music, a blueprint of what they did and why they did IT.

And pretty much everybody's successive to you. You'd use IT the same, whether you would with any mentor, right? And so I was gonna see my mentor.

What questions do I want to ask my mentor? You can do that virtually, right? Until you study somebody.

You can pose those questions to yourself pyrates ally. And you could answer the way that they would answer IT for you, right? yeah. And I don't understand why more people don't do that and can take IT really seriously. But the most one thing is for whatever your domain is in the way that you want to do IT like have a clear blueprint for you.

In the beginning, you're just, you know you're imitating IT and then you're gona find the certain things that don't totally resonate with you and not completely authentic and you change those things and there's going to be some new things that you dry in that you kind of adapt from whatever that print was and then that's gonna come you. And over time, IT becomes you. And it's something completely different.

The front mine says you have to imitate before you can innovate. I mean.

there are so many examples when you start thinking about like jie think is best album two thousand and one caught the e print. I think IT was paying respect in homage to those that he study right? And when he was growing up, you know, he used to always Carry a new book with him, and he would write lyrics or ideas that he had, and he would take you with him everywhere.

And I was the thing, I mean, to this day, like, I still Carry a nobo every day. Like, this is with me everyday. I want to have an idea. Like, i'm on IT like, and that comes from the blueprint, right? And IT works for me.

So then you go to people like, you know, saw Price like he, the Price club mean the people that he laid the blue print from James nag with coco burning markets with home deep pot to sam wilton, who's laid a bigger blue print and saw Price or TTS in igor I me is a fascinating story, if you think, I mean, he grow in australia, his original blue prints, I want to be mr. austria. And then he did that and is like, I want to be mr.

universe. He followed redge part, and then he decided he want to be a big movie star, and he did that. Then he decided want to go into politics, became governor california.

Three different domains, completely different. Each one he had a blue print. And so I just can be really, really powerful.

So if you're looking to acquire a skill and you're using a blue penner mentor as a role model, you almost want somebody who just did that thing, not somebody who did IT thirty years ago, unless what happened thirty years ago is enduring. So the way that you set up a maybe you know, Price club or something is in journey or costa is sort of like in journey, right? We have this Operating model.

We Operate basically uh, break even and then we make our money on memberships that would endure in like thirty years, probably. But often we look for skills, we look for sort of like, I want to do this particular, I won't learn this. I need this, this going to make me get a promotion, go to the next level.

But if I go to know, my mentor in the organization is like thirty years older than me who did this thing before. But now the environment is like so different. And in their mind, IT has a really change.

Do you know it's like, what here's how I did that. This is what you should do. But if you follow that particular blue point, you you're not gonna successful to start.

You just wanted emulate IT, right? And that and then that gives you something to scale up over time. But as you're scuffle ling IT, then you're also questioning not just what they did, but why they did IT.

So lots of things probably change. What what's not onna change? Like the concept of having a membership club hasn't changed, like powerful concept of being low cost hasn't changed. The other elements of that in the delivery that have changed. And so those are the part that you will adapt as you scuffle le IT out.

If you want perspective, you want to go to somebody who's at the end of them who's stone up before, and it's almost regardless of when they did IT. IT could be six months before and I could be twenty thirty years before. But they are going to give you perspective, which removes bond spots. And if you want skills, you have to go to people who have relevant in in the the current Operating environment and copy those sort of like skills because they're more likely to be successful. But I like the idea of adding this extra layer of what's not going to change, uh, from the past that I can also bring back to right .

now I might work for them, but IT may not be so good for you which tires back to knowing yourself and listening to that tell, I think is is important.

So who are some of your own models? And like, how did you use the blue print method? Gy.

with them? The first blueprint for me in investing goes back. Actually read the high school and college.

But with Peter linch, did you know his book one up on wall street? Um I thinks one of the best like incredibly accessible I remember that reading that in just totally connected for me right? And you know a lot of people say security analysis bend ground like i've read I didn't put you to sleep that a page r right opposite with Peter ch one up and was like like really resonating connected.

And I think one of the big teams was focus on the things that you know that are accessible, but you might call the circle component. He didn't call IT that. But I was focus on the things that you touch, see, no understand, like make a difference for you.

Just look at your bank statement, what are the things that you spend money on and what are the things you really like in that experience now is not just that like you have to understand the valuation and other alone business, but like a guiding principle was right there. He talked a lot about when ratio like you're not going to be right. A lot, I think, is a Young investor that an important concept to internalize because you you see Young kids come through and that pretty much been successful at everything that they've done in the new union.

Investing in like if you right fifty five percent at a time like you, you're doing pretty darn well until being wrong a lot is an important concept to internalize. And in the last one, what he talks about, he had six categories for his stock, slow grower, fast growers, stallworth, turnaround cycles. And that was just that. He was a categorization framework, also like a mental, the model for each type of stock. I don't use those exact frame today, but when I was starting having a clear framework and thinking about them kind of mental models for each was, you know, isn't type ful .

talk to me about being wrong? How do you recognize you're wrong? And then do the hard thing, which is, sell IT a lot, write IT down.

show your work, track IT, measure IT as that thesis is evolving in event occur, measuring IT relative to that and trying to be as and objective as you can. It's always hard. It's a nice to have people also around you that, that will pursue to do that.

I think having your own investment journal. So it's different to need specific decision. But understanding what um emotions are a play for you. The studies that show that those people that are Better at describing what emotions they're feeling, demonstrating Better investment performance and is just a simple concept of like having a Better read of what you're feeling. I used to have um a frame for myself that when I came to a decision I wouldn't sell the same day.

And IT turns out like that's a really good kind of level setter because you go into a meeting with management team, they do something that um Sparks you and you like particularly turned off. And I come selling this. If you just give yourself a little bit space to step back from that, go back.

Look at what you wrote originally. Pair that up with what you saw that can be really helpful and like pretty you a Better mindset to make a more objective decision. The data would say i'm Better at like cutting a loss earlier, knowing some thing is off in the decision.

There are some situations where like I hang with IT, it's continue to not work and then I have this sort of and dominant, effective like I want to see a play out over time and I and I stay with IT, whatever reason. So it's an interesting in question for me. You of like what what causes IT deflate from one to the .

what role is writing player in terms of thinking? And what's the process? Do you share this with the team? Is there a format? What what variables are you writing about?

Know, one of the themes is like how do you accelerate learning and accelerate feed back loops? And so one of the things that we do is all of our analysts run paper portfolios or model portfolio. And this is something we done for decades.

When you go through the investment process, you write up your very ous research reports. When you. Buy IT you put forward something to investment community um you d debate IT and then you buy IT in your paper portfolio and what you for any decision to buy or so you're write in down your reasoning.

You put him down why you're buy what the pieces is. I like IT when you show the things that I want to be looking for, hold accountable to just writing things down, like helps you Crystalize the why and putting IT down and then tracking, you know sure, you're work and then track IT. One of the things that we do every six months is you we can solid that we look at the performance and then we share that with uh, the team members needs a really powerful feedback mechanism for the analyst.

But it's also power for for us is we're thinking about, you know, looking at the simulation, if you will, like who's making good decisions on what kind of decisions? Are you demonstrating more skill on the by decision, sell decision? Are you doubling down when something is working against you? Are you making Better decisions of painting on stocks that you've researched yourself first? The stocks that somebody else are written up, like those are all dimensions that are in there that giving you feedback, which is really powerful way to like help the improvement algorithm.

One of the things that we did a couple years ago, which has been really interesting, is we created this, what we call decision analytics initiative, right? So we have a standalone team um for individuals. We went out and got third party software.

And we run all these decisions from our portfolio managers in our analysts through and we're looking at to pick up strings, weaknesses and biases. It's meant to be kind of like, you know, internal coach. And what's fascinating about is, is showing you these patterns, right? Like I have specific patterns that i've demonstrated over time.

I talked about one of them already with regard to the Darwin effect. Another one is regret aversion. The riskiest position in the portfolio is my newest position.

So when i'm initiating a position, I tend to scale into a totti wants to take IT to three percent of capital. I'll buy fifty basis points, no another fifty or scale into IT. Turns out that's wrong.

The bias that i'm demonstrated, the reversion is a regret aversion is if it's reaches the hurdle that I want to buy, I buy IT. And so it's interesting to get that feedback objectively because I have this kind of like working heroic IT. Turns out it's not right. And the day that tells you that really clearly, one of things that we have done with that is then we create these nudes will call nudgers. And so this is coded into our system is watching your behavior real time. If you're demonstrating one of these is a senu, an email, and i'm never that excited when I get them to be clear and we'll say you remember the data you're demonstrating this right now in this position, IT doesn't dictate that you do IT, but just encourages you to think about IT until all of that that that homogenic is kind of like, how do you create a rigorous process that is repeatedly that really leaning on the factor that can really help reinforce making the best decisions in a way that can be most constructive to as an individual?

Is there correlation between the clarity of people's writing and their performance?

I haven't studied the data to specifically support that, but my I believe so when you're able to clarify your thinking and writing is a very strong representation that you've clarified this thinking, right? Just what are the reasons why writing is so important? Is helping to distil IT to what's really key.

We do a lot of work or really fundamental. We can spend months working an idea. And you know, you get this fifty page report. I don't want a fifty page report like I want a few pages that really is still like that's the hard part is to do all the world, but then is still IT down till like the few things that two or three really key points and in particular, where we see this differently than others capturing that in knowing kind of those folker issues like that's the sauce coaching to how do you go through that process to do that really fundamental bottoms of work but then be able to like really distill IT. It's also a manifestation, I think, what you're pulling on and that you've you've got ten to that.

It's like there's simplicity on the other side of complexity, but you can only get to the simplicity if you ve gone through the complexity. But I feel like everybody wants this simplicity. They want to consume the simplicity.

They don't want to do the work, they don't want to to go through the raw material we were talking about this last night sort of like listening to books, summaries in a way, right? It's like they sound great and you listen to them your ear. You like a it's amazing.

But then you go to the source. You like how do they miss this and IT contextualized differently in your head. And the degree of filters between you and the information also matters, right?

If you are reading an author talking about a subject that they have no experience directly, it's going to be very different than reading direct from the source somebody who touched the problem and had the direct experience, so indirect experience. And then you talk about sort of distillations, two different people are going to come up with two different distillations. But if everybody just wants to consume the installations, they're not going to be in a position to know this is a good installation and this is a bad distillation.

There is a couple really good threats in there to pull on. One is the filter right? Like it's it's a really important thing to think about.

Um when you get that installation back of like what's not in there, you really want to do one a source to a lot of times for me. You know I will all see some minutes like, well, I want to either talk to the management team or listen to them directly. I just I want to hear IT for myself because I want to process IT differently to pick up on different threads.

And you got to be authentic to that. There is a tendency to want to convince somebody or persuade somebody to buy a star. And so when you're persuading, you're persuading and you may not as equally kind of pull out the potential risks, other factors to way against that, creating that objectivity and that honesty in IT, I think, is an important part in the process.

And sometimes people over time will develop skill of doing that, sometimes is not. And so you really want to remove the filter so that you can get to that kind of direct read. And then the other aspect of that is just, you know, really doing IT on a primary basis.

I like to say the magics in the last five percent of all of the same stuff, you know you ve got to do and looking at the baLanced and understand the course strategies and key drivers of UNO xc, but really like getting to that last five percent where you understand the business in a way that you do make that breakthrough, that syntheses. That's where the magics that don't stop short of that, like keep pushing until you get to that point that you can distill IT. Like what what is the essence of this? Like when the things we talk about in the team is what's the essence stay statement for this company, meaning like what's the thing that really drives IT. IT can take you a long time to get to that when you've granted on and enough and you get to that point, if you have really been able to dial into that thing, that is the driver that can be a real baLance to help you throw.

As an owner and holder of IT, I like this notion of the magic being in last five percent are the examples from other domains that come to mind where IT makes a difference.

Going back, this is probably a decade we we had built a position and economical motor, a solutions you think of like the modern of foot phone. And that was the original al business, but they ended up splitting IT to the handset business. And then what was their public safety business? Say make devices in the manage networks for um first responder.

So police officers and fireman and what they run these networks over what's called propriete network in the U S. Called the big bear thesis at the time. This fiber rules out and you have brought band networks like these property networks are not gonna necessary in the way that they were not a technologist.

But we spend a lot of time understanding elmer networks for first responders. And IT turns out that the really, really strong reasons why having stand alone propriete elemer networks are really important one, they're backward compatible. That's a big deal because you really big infrastructure install base out there to the redundantly is way higher like they can go several days, which we saw during nine eleven, like the network went out, but the first responder and networks were still approval.

The common narrative out there. And when you talk to most people like they, they would quickly riff of like know they going to be just an immediate as broadband networks or more commonly adopted. Really getting into that last five to understand that and be build conviction about IT was the difference for us ended up taking pretty sizable position and ended up being really rewarding for us.

But to grind that and really understand that bottoms up was a difference maker, right? And IT also tied to some of my favorite and investment situations are the bare cases is the both case. So is i'm very narrative.

And if you don't kind of do IT on your own, your own words, if I were bringing up this name and I was talking someone, they would have told me all of the reasons why I was gonna get this and immediate. And I would have sound really sensible, like not touched spit, if you build IT up yourself and you really spend enough time to get into that that last five to understand IT. It's like not only is that wrong, but actually this is the bullet case for why this is going to to be a great company because you've got a very vulnerable mode in a way .

that you don't understand. Are there other examples that come to mind? I really like this thread of the best case is the bullets ase.

You've had take cbs on your podcast. We've first in a brand, two thousand and thirteen. There been more than a few occasion through that journey where the kind of being able to get into that last five to understand in a way that wasn't commonly appreciated, I think, allowed us to be a whole arn and owner in a way that would have been difficult for a lot of folks that were only approaching that on the surface.

So the the first one, two thousand and fifteen you made a big acquired was a big pic probable one of the best. Decisions i've seen in my investment career, while a company called conway IT was a complete vote from a state strategy at the time, this frame was asset light broker truck broker business. He pivoted to go into the L, T, L.

Industry, which was capable intensive. And even when the deal was announced, even I was taken back like but when we made the initial best, when we spend a lot of time on on brand as a as a CEO, as a capital alligator, this serial entrepreneur and one of the things is very clear. And this track record is he's he's a capital allocators and he's opportunities.

When we pushed on this in the strategic logic of IT, he framed IT from the perspective of an opportunistic situation to create humping special that wasn't in the original plan, but was uniquely attractive. And if you understood him in his history, and you'd seen that in his demonstrate track record IT reframed, how you thought about that capital location decision. And so building up kind of that prior track record of understanding how he makes decisions, trader mentality. And by the way, one of his first business is that he started was an oil trading business, right? So that DNA is in him and that track rack was demonstrated.

And then the the second time um was I never never forget, I mean, we're actually sitting going to see bread in december in the midst the conversation, his assistance came in so I A short report has been filed and he had printed IT out and he said on the table I I think I can still distinctly remember like the third of the reports, like a seven fy page report until we continue to chat about fifteen months later, his assistance came back in to the office and said, um you know, I think at that point the stock was down more than twenty percent and he said, sorry, guys, I think I think we need to cut this short. I need to attend this my colleague and I went we got in the car and we're trying to read the short report. I'll never forget like the the feeling of the anxiety of my stomach um and we'd done a lot of work on IT he was intimidate into you know here these claims on the surface in the next three weeks we we into that like we we hired a forensic accounting to go through all of the statements. Every one of the claims that were in there hired a private investigator.

Um we knew what cars they drove, whether the head loans or not, whether there were any disputes, the people on the short in the company to undertake chip Operating officer were certain aspects they were claimed kind of on dealing really take to go into that last five percent maybe you know last one percent is how I spent my my Christmas in new years is going down this this, right? But the beauty of IT on the other side is IT built a deep conviction, right? And we probably put a billion dollars into IT on the back of that. And stock was extremely dislocated. I think bread in the company by back two million, like unprecedented magnitude .

of company, bora bora.

ge IT was a good check. But on the back of like extremely, extremely deep, rigorous, like conviction building. You know, the easy thing would be to go the other way, like, oh, this is messy, this is noisy.

The common trope is roll ups never work. And it's true, like the base rate on roll pse is not good. That doesn't mean all rolph don't work.

What are the factors in common homeworks of roles that are successful? And are those conditions precedent here? And those are the things that we found as we went deeper and deeper and peel back the Young on.

That's what IT takes. And again, kind turn IT like the bear case. Actually, you're thinking about what's happening here.

We've sort of talked about knowing yourselves. We've talked about game selection. We've talked about having a blueprint or model to sort of follow and imitate before you innovate.

Consider this a map. Now what? Now what do we do with this? How do we apply this to create an unfair vantage?

So now it's about like accelerating that, that learning her in those feedback loops or try to put yourself in a place that is good game selection for you based on who you are on and what your shrinks are. You got a clear blue print about how to go after that.

And now you know you just want you want to turn the rocks, and you want to accelerate to learning curve in a big part of that, treating those case studies of writing IT down, like, why am I doing this showing your work? Part of showing your work is distilling for you. Why you're doing IT tracking that over time and measuring yourself to IT and improving your algorithm, you know how strong is the learning machine?

Like are you seeing them taking new inputs based on, on the feedback that they're getting, adapt that and employee that as they go forward into, you know how they thinking about stocks, how they're making decisions. And it's really hard for us the way in our game selection because we're making these four, five year decisions. So it's very easy to say, well, it's about this and you let's check in five years? no.

Like there many incremental steps between now and then that you want to track to and hold yourself accountable to doesn't mean you're trading every day or every quarter, but you want to be really taught for on this is why I bought IT. These are the things are going to be looking for and then holding your self accountable during those in trm stamps and identifying those situations where it's worked well when IT has IT and then adapting for that, right? And just being really obsessive about .

that IT seems like one of the key skills is sort of being over the shift, what's important from what's irrelevant. And a lot of people get confused, how do we get to the point where we can actually shift with important from what's or help?

I think it's just learning from the feedback, right? We took a in two thousand and eighteen. We took a position in semantic.

So semantic you software and software like on decided to protect your laptop. And in desktop, you know, was a mature business, very high, free casual for software business. They had hired a new C E, O.

Who was a real technologist. And so I spent a lot of time on him as a technologist because and they needed to infuse that in the business in order to be able to grow and adapt. Most, all of my work was around that.

I thought that was the important question. In the very later stages of the work, we started to get some reads that, yeah, he was genuinely a very savi technologist, but had a reputation for playing fast and loose, little gressier, very aggressive sales culture. And just as we started to get that read, the company came out, the board came out and announced the auto committee was going to undertake, uh, A A review of the financial statements.

Stock gap down thirty five percent. Covered somewhere, but not fully right. And so there was a layer there in part of what, using the music of two things. One is, if you're over my optically focused on one thing you think is the important thing you need, keep your mind open, that there maybe other things in the most is that are critical.

And then when you do see those threads and we started to get little bit of the flags like you got to go after then go after IT really aggressively. Time back to your question is you're writing IT down. You're showing your work. What are the things that you think you are important, but you measure yourself back to that and seeing the degree to which you've been demonstrating a good succession of of zero ing in on the thing that is .

the thing when I talked entrepreneurs is so interesting to me because compliments, and this is a journalizing IT doesn't apply in all cases. But complimented, they tend to shut down. They don't tend to listen.

They're already like a minute, they antipa a compliment of you. They stop, listen, and you can kind of see in their faces you pay attention really closely. But if you say something that's a threat to their business, then there's almost like a predatory instinct that they have to be. Like, I want to know all about that.

Some curious about this, like why do you think this? Where did this information come from? How does this effect to me? Like how do we validate this? I feel like a lot of people, almost the opposite, right? It's like comments are great, uh, things that uh might be criticisms or things that we might not be great at this kind of go in one year out the other or you stop listening to the heard that before.

You know, I think that's really interesting when IT comes to running a business or getting Better at things is like almost being like dark, right? To cut this journal of things that didn't conform to his beliefs and then he had to goes through and like, how do I integrate this or just prove IT? Or how do I think about this in lieu of dismissing and how I don't wanted dismiss, that, I want to incorporate how do you go about doing that and sort of like having will call IT a predatory instinct, listen to criticism three ways.

One is we are turning about questions. And IT can be a really valuable way we used to down A C, E, O is to frame a question in a way that they have to respond to. But you might set down and say, we've been hearing that you're having a lot of turnover in your sales department.

Why is IT puts them in a position where they they kind of have to respond? Because to your point, a lot of times when you will frame something in the negative as a threat or chAllenging, you know c OS are very skilled like we'll shifted to something else. But if you frame in in a way that they have to respond. So that's one. I think two is to your point of when I use the semantic example, like I was just confirming um not to the big point but in terms of the brother, nearly what I was singing about the company.

And any time that comes up like you've got a really focus on IT, like that's the most valuable information in the situation that can be really value also when you work with an analyst and they are filtering notting IT directly when you hear that kind of stuff, that's what you want to go to and really pull on because they may not be that um excited to put that first and foremost because they want to persuade. But when you hear you've got a really you've got a pulled on that. And in the third way, going back to the blueprint t, we didn't talk about, but probably the most. Meaningful blue print for me is the founder my phone great geniuses is um discounts and an in the ability to kind of hold to competing til on the one hand, like he was super a long term, but he was always obsessing also in term. The long term is just building up those for term things and he was a person was very convicted about things like tremendous conviction but IT was always loosely held and so if he heard anything that was counter you know thread he would really grab that um and he was never ashamed, embarrass, shy to then grab onto that and then totally flip his view and so that that ability to like be very convicted but then constantly and searcher like he never wanted to talk to somebody that agreed with him about a position like just got to the opposite beyond that that's the person that I went to rule IT and also um and hear about that because he was he was like seeking IT and if he thought that whatever they were putting for was good in that but he was off the ability to go both ways I think is really, really powerful .

like intellectual amb. Dex stress, other other lessons that stand out that you learn .

from him so many of and he he is a special person. I mean, he mean the first thing comes to money, just his enthusiasm. He is loved the game, right?

Like it's just infectious. Used to say there is nothing more positive than a great idea. He was always turning rocks like the secret to a good idea. A lot of ideas like always turning rocks.

But then when he saw was really interesting, like IT was all in, there was a discount, right, where he was incredibly convicted, but at the same time he was always actively seeking the opposite side of the view to your Darwin reference, like it's it's it's survival adaptability, right? You want to be looking for the things that don't conform to the contest. He always like to talk to folks that we're Younger.

Um and I think for a couple reasons. One was um it's it's less filtered, then it's closer to the source um and it's probably more contemporary in its view. You know I was reading earlier the shower was reading a the biography on andy grove, and I talked about you rise to the level on the company, the germ manager, more senior engineer like you, you lose your connection to like the cutting and engineering.

And so that was very clear part of their culture. IT was not high article, quite flat. They would interact actly in there, like, what do you do? This was like its survival, like IT.

I need to be close to the source of the people that know the problem, the closest. And and when I read that, I was like, that's the same thing that Allen did in a different way, different in different visits. But it's the same concept, never called its survival. But I know that that was underneath of kidding directly to unfiltered the best .

information. I had a friend who was the chief of stuff to A C A of a billionaire, and before he assumed this role he he sort of said, you know, I think in buying large and have imperfect here to these are his exact words, but like, these guys make incredibly stupid decisions ah and I want to help change that and then he got up there and he is like, actually they make really good decisions with the information they have.

They just have completely terrible information because it's been so filtered by the time I got up to the ceo's office. And so he started this thing where he just started calling the person that he could get in touch with closest to the problem to understand the problem, and having briefs from that person and skipping like five layers or six layers of management and get so much troubled for I just think that's like a fascinating thing when you think about, like how do we sit, what's important from what's not right? And some of the variables you mentioned like getting closer to the information and getting on filter information, going to act to people who have experienced.

And if you think about this in the context of learning, I also think it's faster because I think of learning as a loop. There's like you haven't experience to consider that like the twelve hand on the clock, you reflect on that experience, which is the three hand, you create a compression or abstraction, which uh you can think of as the distillation, uh, as the six and then you have an action. So you have this loop that constantly feeds back into itself.

Often what we're consuming is other people's compressions. And when we do the book, summer is a great, great example of that, right? You're consuming somebody else is, uh, you don't know what's missing.

You don't have they formulated IT often, they don't have direct experience in the thing that they're even summer zing, and so they're not able to capture the essence of something. Their distillation works for them because they did the work on the raw and and you feel like that works for you as a person. But when you go to put IT in practice, IT doesn't work.

The experience is like this thing that's like four gig by its right of memory occupying in your brain to your brain, sort of like we're going to compress this into something much smaller. That's the reflection angle. You're sorting what matters from what does, and you're sort of like decompressing the emotions from things you're determining.

What are the variables to go on the situation going forward? How do the interact across time? What are the models that are Carried? The wait here, and then you come to this compression. But you can go back from that compression to the experience.

Where is somebody who consumed just that compression? Can't go back to the experience in the way that I try to explain this to my kids, as imperfect as that says as they are. Every sunday, we have this cookie recipe and make them make cookies before they can have the wifi password.

So I I leave the recipe on the counter. And if you know, when they followed the recipe, the cookies turned out amazing. And when they don't follow IT exactly, they have no idea what was wrong.

Now the the shah for the Baker who created that recipe would instantly be able to look at a photo probably, or take a bite of the cooking, and they would know instantly what went wrong. Did they hit the button too much? They not melt IT enough to, they compact the sugar too much. Was the other and running a little hot, even though I said three hundred and sixty degrees was at three seventy five.

But the Baker, they would know that and you want to surround yourself when you're trying to acquire information with Bakers, right? And you want to be the Baker, but you can't be the Baker and everything you have to pick your discipline going back to what came you playing, where i'm going to be a master and we're going to be borrow and just crib from other people. Cause by borrowing and cribbing the compressions, i'm gonna to average really quickly.

I've love that. I two thoughts on that. One is if they were making the cookies and pulling the recipe, if they wrote down at each step what they were actually doing, that gives you something to look back like, let's say the cookies didn't turn out well, right? Gives you so you look back at go on track and see kind of um where they might have been off. And in the second part of that, just to the point of the having a blue print, the importance of that is you start with the recipe, and you do IT you know exactly, but then you adapt you like. Or maybe if I put I really like, well answer.

whatever chocolate chips.

how to put some chocolate chips in this, and then you try that the first time. You do IT may not worked that well, but I still really like chocolate chips that's authentic to me until you adapted a little bit. And then in the end, you end up with something that uniquely you and really special, totally.

And now I want cookies.

Fly me for cookies.

Talk to me about the will to win versus the will to practice.

It's nice to have that goal at aspiration. It's very different to have the world of practice to grind, to make the cookies every day and to write IT out and then look back at yourself and look at the stabs and measure yourself and showing up in that. And that's why I also tired just to the the concept of IT is the journey that gets you to that place.

You know, one of the questions that I really love, I think about, and i'm still kind of like evolving on, is you a music like if you're A A concert, is even though you one of the best musicians in the world, you practice your scales every day for usis investors, like what's the equivalent of practicing scales every day is an interesting question. I think some part of the are temperament related, like just practicing to for gratification. The elements of IT that are you know um thinking about the world probably sticks everything just continue to practice that every day or the uncertainty of a situation but not taking that for granted and like really practicing that day after day essentially inoculate yourself to to prepare yourself for that.

It's interesting because as you were same that in part of what pop in my head was, if we go back and we look at the grades in sports, because that's an easy reference. But like I talk to somebody who played with tomato and they basically said, like, practice was gay. If you talk to somebody you played with M, J, S, like practice was again like you you're not hosting and if you are, is calling you out.

And um and kobe was the same way where they treat the proactive like they would treat the game with the same respect, the same effort, the same dedication, the same frustration. If they don't make a player, they don't sort of like half asset expect to win on game day when they don't do. In the practice, how do you still that mindset in your kids, like where the will to practice, the will to took, grow into the consistency, the routine, a ritual of that and taking pleasure, and that and not the outcome?

I mean, if I just draw my own example and I go back with my grandfather, was just the example that he said, I think, kind of just the first later of that with my own kids, is just them seeing me grind every day. They make fun of me. I want to do do I to investor, you don't really have to just really all time. They don't necessarily see those difficult moments or you know getting up before a clock in the morning.

I think you're going to a lot of sympathy from my audience.

but it's just it's the it's the setting examples is is the first layer I think in the craft man shift of IT no matter what you're doing IT from a janitor too. Um you know a socket player to whatever. And in the second dimension I try to think more about with my kids is just trying to help them get in the way the things that they really love have three kids from age twenty one twelve, and there so different, right? But for each one of them like to help them get in the space, IT goes back like, what can you be obsessed about?

Doesn't matter what IT is, but what is that for you? And be delivered about, and be intentional about the concept of delivered practice of like really having that that blueprint grading on IT um leaning into IT, measuring yourself relative to IT. Like that's the thing.

What have you learned a book .

time management. As investors, we allocate capital. You could argue that our most important job, you say that a lot of CEO erotically ally, most porn job allocate capital. I think there's something on top of that, which is more import, how you allocate your time.

People just don't think about IT enough, and they fall into these patterns without really thinking about the most important question because you can get more capital, you can get more time. And so just you know, as an investor, one of the things that comes up a lot is okay. We're going to spend we're going to go deep on this company will spend the next three months regarding on IT to understand that.

But if we do that for three months, we be in a Better position to move the odds on a Better outcome. That's the question. And there are some situations where absolutely you would be able to do that like A A big question is how they might adapt to modify their distribution network.

Know on the other side, that might be something like like T S, M C, the summer duct coming, one of the best companies in the world. The big question there is a geopolitical question. I could spend three months on that, and i'm not sure that, that would move. My probability isn't IT is making a Better decision on that thing. That is a big driver. Every time of making decision where I want to focus on where I want to spend my time is like will doing that result in the highest return on time is opposed to to capital? And just being really rigorous with yourself in your team about that question, I think, is something that is often overlooked or not really chAllenge to agree .

that IT should be I like the nation of time allocation and sort of capital allocation. Does that Carry to your personal life as well?

I can feel the trap of like, is this useful right now? That's a horrible question to ask with your kids, right? So I just to give yourself the space for play to just be in that moment with him and whatever you may be in parties in saturdays, we have family dinners together and it'll start calling IT six k and everybody's got a role in doing something and everybody's in the kitchen and you just mixing IT up you just totally in that moment. The next thing you know, it's it's ten or ten thirty and like it's the end dinner, like espinal four four and a half hour journey and like this totally lost in the moment of IT some of the times that I value the most there. There is nothing intentional in that except that you be in .

that space combated T, S, M, C. For a second. I think one of buffer ts filters is is IT knowable that if the answers no, he doesn't want to to hear your opinion on IT h or your facts or anything.

You just doesn't waste any time on that. I didn't know that's true, but I find that is a good filter is a great filter for a leg. When you're in an argument with somebody, you know you're at a family dinner, big family or you know thanksgiving or something, you know people are like arguing about very subjective things. If you just have this filter in your head, which is like, is this knowable and you just sort of say you're probably right, you might be right and just move on, but this is not worth sort of spending time on.

I think it's really to keep reminding yourself and have a discipline. I was I was recently in australia seeing number our clients in a big topic is the election, the us. election.

In their mind, I would be for us to big deal. But the best was like it's of i'm not going to position until the portfolio for a particular outcome. One because I wouldn't well sure to do that.

But two to this point, like it's it's unnoted. And so I just want to be resilient as supposed to spend all this time obsessing line is are going to be a particular candidate that wins in position of portfolio in that way. Much Better to just focus on IT like from a .

position of resilience. Talk to me about that a little bit because I think one of bullets earned secrets that most people don't. The nize is that he's always in a position for success.

He's very rarely put himself in a situation where circumstances dictate any us in the detail and the and adaptability that that provides makes them click genius because he can always take advantage of whatever the world's offering him. And if you think about IT now, it's like they have three hundred billion notion cases like, well, if the dark market crashes and the economy goes to shed, who wins? Buffet wins.

And if IT stays the same, who wins? Buffett wins. And if you like skyrockets, who wins buffett like, you know he's just set up the scenario where he's not predicting he's positioning colonies through your eyes.

I mean positioning is is everything right in the sense of um you can think about IT in the portfolio, you have the resilience to absorb what may come. You know we have these situations where you wouldn't anticipated that. And then I can be quite devastating if I go back to um I mentioned semantic but two thousand and eighteen like I um really one of the most difficult years of my professional life.

So the same T I um about a months later was in november, and I I never figured because I was on my birthday. We had a position in the company called P G N, which is a kind for utility, the child. So we went into IT after they had had their well fires, thinking legislation to pass with.

There is a little little pole, if anything happen for the into the year. We are already through the main part of the heavy welfare season than another another fire hit like more in testis O A little in my office looking out to marine county and I see the flames and the smoke billing and thinking, that's my position billowing. That's my portfolio.

You know that's my investing tracks record, like just kinda vastly. And you know, I I, I sized in a level that I could take an impairment. I thought I was lower probability in the actual probability, but I wanted to try to position for that to whether IT. And then a month later, the story I told you about X, P, O on the short report hit so three hits pretty devastators. It's part of the concept of kind going back to this journey that you're like knowing yourself, think about games selection, celerity your learning feedback, know that you're on this hero's journey and there's gonna the setbacks.

And I think one of the things that really was helpful for me was kind of inverting IT and just thinking about this is part of IT like this is part of the struggle like, you know, you're going to be in these moments and how you can handle IT. Part of IT is a positioning going in, but part of IT is also how you embracing when you're in the moment. I took another form of positioning, right, is sort of do you have the baLance sheet when you go in the things that are unaffected, but you also have the mindset for how you embrace things like that when you're in the moment because you could sort of just suffer well, as me, or you could say, OK, this is the hand that I have now, how i'm going to play that.

If you embed IT in that way, I find that I put a very different position. I didn't get there immediately. IT took me a little bit, while little bit of a of a time pity to get there. But um I think that's last discussed. But IT in another element of positioning.

I really think that that's key, right? It's like you can't live hundred dears and not go through all of the things that life has to offer from heartbreak to losing money in our investment and like how you respond in your approach to those things. It's usually not now and the people who try to push IT away or why me uh, that causes sort of um you just start reacting versus reasoning your way through.

It's like, no, this is one. How do I deal with this, which I think is very helpful minds, I pray, which is I didn't I maybe not have created this and might not have anticipated IT. My contribution to this might be really low or doesn't change the fact that i'm here and where do I go next and what do I do.

And we talk to about time allocation as sort of capital management. There's another parallel, I think, between business and life, which is personal live and sort of overhead. Talk to me about that.

This is much less discuss, but I think is squarely in your food positioning frame, is you know how you run your personal life, very much impact ability to make good decisions, particularly if they go sideways at right.

And so you see people, people in the industry who then adopt a certain lifestyle, a certain fixed cost space in in like you need the investment to work as opposed to making, you know what you think are good risk of justice decisions. And I think once you can cross over into needing to work, you've change the dimensions of your your temperament, your emotions. And when you do that, put yourself a bad position to make great decisions and companies do that.

I mean, that's something to be very mindful of and it's something think about as a firm and best make teams like it's you're looking for certain type of individual, what you're trying to create certain culture within the team, you're trying to have a certain relationship with your clients like those are all part of enabling you to try to make the best decisions in the way that were for you. But if you break any one of those kind of components of the fire, will, if you were like, then you really got great in the fly will. And IT could be dangerous, you know.

in its worst case, will you invest with attention seeking c years or like highlights yle city generally not.

I mean, it's um it's it's a part of the music of you know what will be the driver in the interesting thing with um with C E S like what are the characteristics that allow one to be in that seat and they're not always correlated with. The skills that are best to allocate capital to make certain strategic decisions, too, make decisions that are independent of what might be popular.

I acto me about the role of focus.

We don't have infinite type, right? And so what you choose to allocated to is, is really a critical decision, is really underestimate a helmet n that is over and over and over again and is part of the journey, right? Because you're gonna in the rabid holes.

But that's part of like seeing the algo improve over time and it's an early that you can help you know a coach. So I give some feedback on that. But just asking you a question, like when you're spying the time to all, you're just like, is this a question that I can answer? The very simple but like you take a simple idea, take a series sweet. Are there .

particular lessons from monger in buffet that you try to remember every day that have met more of an impact?

Take me simple idea, take IT seriously and really leaning into IT, focus on a few things where you can really make a difference, the place to you, but the discipline to actually do. I do IT consistently like really, i'm really a believer that the magic in the sauces, in the extremes, and so like just keep like if you think it's worthwhile, like push on IT, really push on IT. Like really go deep in the company in terms of how you size positions were in the ones that you really see, like you see the the matrix clearly, like just take that and really mean into IT.

So what would you say? Or like the three simple ideas that you take seriously, alignment.

you know, is really important. One like you mean example, you profess to be a long term investor, and that's really part of you. And you have a temperament to do IT, but you need to manifest that in every way.

So that starts with the kind of people that you hire, what i'm hiring and interviewing people everybody likes to say they're continuing on. But are you really continuing like you let's talk through some examples when you've done something that's different to the crowd in a way that like had consequences and was difficult to do, created environ. Turns out a few higher people that are really independent minded.

They like to be given a lot of space. So you have to create an environment that gives them the space to do that. And you have to create a culture in the way that you interact, the way that you talk, the way you structure your meetings, that focus on independent thinking in taking a law of term time horizon.

On the other side, IT means that you you need clients. They are actually willing to absorb the volatility that might come from taking a long term position that are not going to be the first to review me when you're auto sing with the market. And they don't just profess that, but that win, they're in that situation that something that they actually do.

By the way, maybe you put a free structure around IT. So we all our future performance, but they're funded able. So when we go through these periods were under performing, we refunding feeds back to them in the same ratio.

And we do that because IT tends to be, when you're that period, a way to cushion for the client being in that period, which I longah a time frame. But that reinforces us to be in a position to take long term decision. So it's one idea, simple idea, align and kind of having a long term. But IT permits everything that you do from type of people that you hire, the culture you have, to having paper portfolios that allowed them to express themselves to the clients that you have to the few structures you have.

like it's it's everywhere. What's the next one? So alignment was number one.

What's another one? First principles, thinking in having independent view, not filtering. I first met Allen, our founder, in the midnight is a very first meeting.

He, he said to me, was like, know if you want to get a ten offer a, you've got ta come with the problem completely different. That gotta turn IT on his head. And I was Young and I was very new in my best in journey. You know I fully appreciate a bit thirty years later, like I i've internalized IT and um just kind of that first principles independent thinking and you know really just trying to get to the truth of an answer and then being rigorous around pulling on the threats that are opposing to eight and driving on that to get to the the right certain being O K, being different from everyone else is like that's the same. I can fear with the crowd and with everyone else, like you're going to look just like everyone else, just prioritizing, first and foremost, always like what do I think is a writing answer regardless of kind of whether or not somebody else says IT.

You know, the way I incapable ate that idea in my head often is through creating positive deviation or advantages divergence. So it's not enough to diverge from the crowd. I have to be correct if you want to create results towards the tale is no fun being a .

contrarian just to be a contrary. But a lot of .

people are right. I am when I used to work at the three letter agency. There's a lot of people were contrary just to you can okay, you're contrary all the time and then people just start to dismiss you and nobody listens to you and then the odd time you're right, but you're no Better than a lottery ticket at that point. You have to be thought ful about how you do IT. You do want to create advantages, divergence from the crown.

I mean, it's it's just truth. Like what is the real truth here?

Always end with the same question of which is what is success for you. What's interesting .

to me about this question is how IT to change for me over time. When I was in high school of you have asked me that I had just to get out. I was in my twins, IT was IT was a number.

And then as I got IT to my thirties, that was more about some career aspirations and relationships, you know, my wife, my kids. But today I get a lot of meaning in using kind of my. Springs in skills to help other people. Eau la, it's a caught an dream builder that in my firm, but it's outside of the firm.

Two in success to me is like having something is meaning to you that you're really going after in helping other I know that feels like to be in a position where you you you don't know how to do IT, but it's it's in you. It's it's a hunger that you have. And when I see that and others and I may well to help them do that, like they're just tremendous satisfaction enough for me like that success.

Thanks for listening and learning with us. For a complete list of episodes shown, notes transcribe and more, go to F S dob log slash podcast, or just google the knowledge project. Recently, i've started to record my reflections and thoughts about the interview.

After the interview, I sit down, highlight the key moments that stood out for me, and I also talk about other connections to episodes, and sort of what's got me pondering that I maybe haven't quite figured out. This is available to the supporting members of the knowledge project. You can go to fs stop log slash membership, check out the show notes for a link, and you can sign up today.

And my reflections will just be available in your private podcast feed. You'll also skip all the ads at the front of the episode. The first straight blog is also where you can learn more about my new book, clear thinking, turning ordinary moments into extraordinary results. It's a transformative guide that hands you the tools to master your fate, sharp in your decision making and set yourself up for unparalleled success. Learn more at fs dot blog slash clear until next time.