cover of episode No.167 对谈老戴:寻找红利不如深耕热爱|刻舟求剑

No.167 对谈老戴:寻找红利不如深耕热爱|刻舟求剑

2024/9/24
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三五环

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刘飞
一位活跃的主播,通过播客分享各种主题,包括商业故事和文化内容。
Topics
Demo: 基于上一代形成的共识和认知,在下一个时代窗口里可能完全不适配用户心智。组织惯性以及存量利益是阻碍企业变革的重要因素。阿里早期成功是时代机遇,而非其在电商领域的经验。阿里缺乏对全中国人民不同人群、不同零售业态的深刻理解和经验。用户心智迁移存在窗口期,错过窗口期迁移成本巨大。与其追逐下一个红利,不如深耕热爱,专注做好本职工作。百年老店成功的关键在于抓住某些亘古不变或比较刚性的东西。 在组织变革中,高估短期变化,低估长期可能性。企业决策者应明确企业资源禀赋,避免从事与自身资源禀赋和性格不适配的事务。 阿里巴巴的组织惯性和资源禀赋是其优势也是其掣肘。在提升征税能力的同时,其C端用户基础并未得到改善。 刘飞: 时代机遇优于传奇人物叙事,优于组织能力和业务决策。抖音电商最终还是渠道电商,而非兴趣电商。国民级应用难以形成流量黑洞,所有东西都能吸进来。当前AI缺乏明确的应用场景,与移动互联网初期不同。当前AI发展模式与移动互联网初期不同,缺乏“少年屠龙”式的新兴力量崛起。商业史中蓬勃向上的时代并非常态,动辄上百年的黑暗时代也屡见不鲜。企业决策者应根据自身资源禀赋和性格选择合适的事务,避免从事不适配的事务。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is it difficult for companies to adapt to new trends and avoid 'carving the boat to find the sword'?

Companies often base their strategies on past successes and feedback, which may not align with new market realities. This creates a generational gap in decision-making, making it hard to adapt to new trends. Additionally, organizational inertia and the resistance of individuals who benefit from the status quo further complicate the process of change.

What role does historical context play in shaping business strategies?

Historical context significantly influences business strategies, as decisions are often based on the positive feedback and societal norms of a particular era. For example, China's Olympic strategy in the 1980s focused on winning medals to boost national pride, which was effective at the time but may not align with current priorities.

Why is it challenging for companies to maintain long-term success in rapidly changing industries?

Industries like the internet evolve quickly, and companies must constantly adapt to new technologies and user demands. Many companies fail to sustain success because they rely on outdated strategies or fail to innovate. Additionally, market environments and user needs can change dramatically, making it difficult for even established companies to stay relevant.

What is the significance of early exposure to new technologies in shaping business leaders?

Early exposure to new technologies provides a significant advantage, as it allows leaders to develop deeper insights and expertise before the technology becomes mainstream. For example, early internet pioneers like Ma Huateng and Lei Jun gained a competitive edge by being involved in the tech scene in the 1990s, which shaped their future success.

Why is it important for companies to focus on their core strengths rather than chasing new trends?

Focusing on core strengths allows companies to leverage their existing expertise and resources, reducing the risk of failure when venturing into unfamiliar areas. Companies that try to adapt to trends outside their core competencies often face significant challenges and inefficiencies, as seen in the case of Pinduoduo's focus on retail compared to Alibaba's broader but less effective strategies.

What challenges do companies face when trying to innovate within established organizations?

Established organizations often struggle with innovation due to bureaucratic inertia, resistance to change, and the complexity of existing systems. Decision-makers must navigate these challenges by simplifying processes and fostering a culture that supports experimentation. However, even with these efforts, innovation can be hindered by the organization's ingrained habits and resistance to risk.

Why is it difficult for companies to replicate the success of early internet pioneers?

The success of early internet pioneers was largely due to their early exposure to technology and the unique opportunities of the time. Replicating this success is challenging because the market environment, user expectations, and technological landscape have evolved significantly. Additionally, the rapid pace of change in the internet industry makes it difficult to predict and capitalize on new opportunities.

What are the limitations of relying on historical data to predict future business trends?

Relying on historical data can lead to 'carving the boat to find the sword,' where past strategies are applied to new, unrelated contexts. This approach fails to account for changes in market dynamics, user behavior, and technological advancements. As a result, companies may miss out on emerging opportunities or make decisions that are no longer relevant.

Why is it important for companies to understand the core needs of their users?

Understanding user needs is crucial for creating products and services that resonate with the target audience. Companies that fail to address these needs risk losing market share to competitors who offer better solutions. For example, in the e-commerce industry, platforms like Pinduoduo succeeded by focusing on the needs of price-sensitive consumers, while others struggled to adapt.

What are the challenges of implementing organizational change in large companies?

Implementing organizational change in large companies is challenging due to the complexity of existing systems, resistance from employees, and the difficulty of aligning new strategies with the company's culture. Leaders must navigate these challenges by simplifying processes, fostering a culture of innovation, and addressing the concerns of stakeholders. However, even with these efforts, change can be slow and fraught with risks.

Chapters
基于上一代形成的共识和认知,在下一个时代窗口里可能完全不适配。时代机遇优于传奇人物叙事,优于组织能力和业务决策。寻找红利不如深耕热爱。
  • 上一代的叙事逻辑可能在下一个时代不适用
  • 时代机遇优于传奇人物叙事、组织能力和业务决策
  • 寻找红利不如深耕热爱

Shownotes Transcript

嘉宾|戴某DEMO,组织管理/资产管理顾问,前互联网从业者 主播 | 刘飞,内容创作者,产品经理,袋泡原叶茶「三五杯」联合创始人 本期是跟老朋友戴某 DEMO 的又一期「刻舟求剑」。我们这次聊的还是围绕时代的商业观察。希望对你有启发。 本期录制于 2024 年 8 月 13 日,距离拼多多财报发布还有两周时间。我们聊的很多,后来都被「打脸」。这种对比,或许也能说明一些问题、带来一些启发。 跟老戴的往期节目: No.147 对谈老戴:拼多多的商业决策、选择和取舍|刻舟求剑 No.127 对谈戴某DEMO:支付宝除了支付还有什么? 内容索引 00:48) Part1 商业发展与策略选择 基于上一代形成的共识和认知,在下一个时代窗口里可能完全不适配 用户心智都有窗口期,迁移的成本高 时代机遇优于传奇人物叙事,优于组织能力和业务决策 寻找红利不如深耕热爱,追随值得的人,专注做好本职 商业历史里面蓬勃向上的时代并不是常态,动辄一两百年的黑暗时代也常有 20:27) Part2 组织文化与创新挑战 决策者要明确企业的资源禀赋,意识到局限性 环境适应与内心理念的交叉点是成功关键 一旦开始干跟自己资源禀赋性格不适配的事儿,就容易出幺蛾子 43:28) Part3 电商发展与市场趋势 市场趋势同步,估值回归理性 组织惯性与变革的双刃剑 阿里的变革:简化复杂性,降低风险 制作人:严格 片头:Where Are You Going (Live) - 海龟先生 片尾:幻象波普星 - 刺猬 相关 欢迎在评论区留言交流。如果喜欢《三五环》,也恳请能在苹果 Podcast 、网易云音乐、Spotify 或喜马拉雅留下你的宝贵好评。感谢! 商务合作&嘉宾自荐,请加微信: wocaishiliufei 封面图片由 Midjourney 生成,版权所有©️三五环