TWiST News: Serve Robotics, High Skill Immigration, and the Trump Trade | E2042
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So the robots have you know the same kind of sensors you have on sales, driving cars like lighter and and cameras and more. So they're actually quite smart by themselves. The video you just show, by the way, I should say that is that was my brand new car being used as a test subject. So I have a lot of confidence in this.

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All right, everybody, welcome back to this weekend. Started up on geo and collene and with me, my cohoes alex will home. How are you alex? Did you have a good rest for weekend? How we do a baby? And tell me I .

hosted my lovely parents for the weekend. Jason, so well, I did many family or into things. Rest was not one of them. But good news, my socket team won yesterday. So i'm wearing my new york, new jersey golden shirt because go .

in is is IT a male, female soccer?

This is female socket. So it's the national women's socket league. My spell siner big fans and I watch. I was fun to same question to you.

How's your weekend? My weekend? Wow, let me thinks her through.

I had a nice dinner friday night with my friend kindle ll mask. Now he is amazing. New restaurant in all son. It'll give him a plug here.

It's called the kitchen and I I think they opened in two weeks but I got to die with him twice this week um because we were working on the menu. Uh I cook with camboss sometimes when we hang out and we always cook this tomahawk stick together when we hang. And so we put the tomahawk on the menu, so are highly recommend the tomahawk.

If you go to the kitchen, Austin or the pork chop or the duck, if you're into meet, those three dishes are just outstanding. If you're a vegan, go for the collie flower. They have like a colly flour that they, I found myself addicted to.

They make IT like a smash burger, if that is crispy in all the little mixing crAnnies. If I and I don't know how they do IT, if they USA A A fire or something, but it's so crispy, amazing so vote. This food scene here in Austin has been unbelievable.

Ah everything from like fast you know talk s you're asking about talk s like there's a quicker restaurant right here called tour cheese. Talk s is a little polarizing but I like IT. It's like a as far as I can in and out burger kind of experience is kind of like that of of talk s really great for talkers.

But then there's a bunch of toko trucks and everything. So I am I did a bunch of of, if I doing rock sacking, you know about this rocking? Have you heard a rocking .

my brothers in the army? So yes, I and i'm also a huge fan of this. I ve ve awaited vest. I take IT out very much every stroller market. And so I the question is how heavy is your vest .

or or best I I started by using my wife's uh pack and I think IT was like ten or fifteen pounds, like sandbags or whatever. And I was like I felt in a little bit. But then I went up to this thirty five pound wolf tactical like mainly military grade rocky vest and IT has weights that come in out of IT and I have to say, you know, i'm focused on three lanes right now personally sleep, exercise and diet so I got asleep dial um I you know lost the weight and did them on joro but i'm just trying to eat generally you know more clean food, if that makes sense less process food, more clean food um and then yeah working out and IT turns out rocking is just so great so a lot of times when you are text and I texting in the morning, going over the ticket and and what a docket we have today, I and i'm really excited to talk about IT, especially immigration, which I I threw in the dark the last minute. But we got a lot of stuff for related true, this new tromp t administration.

But the rocky is a great thing, I think, for old guys, over fifty crowd, over forty crowd for dads, because when you put on a twenty five, thirty five thousand vest, I realized I lost forty three pounds. So the amount of weight I lost is even greater than the rocking vest. And now I use the, the, the vest.

I am exhausted. And I realized, no, I know when I was overweight. And you can go back and look at all old episodes and see me go from this style face to ernie and then back to bird from fourteen years ago.

And now it's just me going, you, you, you, you. But now on the other side, because I really like this rocking, I think it's really great. I just walk around my ranch. I do the parameter walk, which is like a ranch walk.

I don't have a ranch water after that's a different thing but um yeah uh I think it's going to get me in great shape knock on wood for season to be you know just having your your body under this load of weight but then being up to take IT off so anyway, I highly recommend looking into that shut out to, I don't know, of Peter tea and Kevin rose and all that crowd are into IT. But I am not sure where I learned about, I think for my wife but I think he may have found IT from pedia partia. So uh, really feel great.

I'm really feeling like great energy. I feel like i'm adding muscle in being well, getting good sleep scores. Shout out to each left. Everything's going in the right direction.

No, I I love to hear that i'm a big thing of awaited vest and also farmers Carriers and just kind of weight in general. But I do have to say you did go from i'm cooking with kinbote sk. I love my tomahawk stake.

Also tried the pork chop two later. I'm working on my diet, so help me. A I love.

I think proteins grade for the diet. okay. I think the only issue I had, and everybody's different, was I was I would get the snack attack.

I constantly had hunger. Yeah, voices in my head. You know, cheeseburger, three chicken parm hamburger, you know, ice cream, whatever, cookies, just what they call food noise.

When you go on A G L P, uh, the food noise goes away. And so I know when i'm off the G L P, I don't have as much food noise. So something changed or I don't know if it's just getting all that fat off my body, but yeah, I think so .

either way, i'm stoked for you and i'm going eventually up in the next six months. My brother, I will demand to be do a rock walk together. We do so well.

Rock war. We'll do the rock walk and then, uh we'll do a salt lic. And Terry b lacks barbecue too.

Great ones. I can't want to have you out here done, right? Let's get to the dock.

There's a lot to do here. I know we also have a great guest. So ah to work so .

quickly for ever one listening ing e we're going to talk to the CEO cofounder of serve robotics, all about food delivery and automatic. Then we have a couple notes on the drunk trade later there, whats going on in the world of fin tech, also notes on immigration policy and how they will impact start of counters.

And with as much time as we have left notes on aid, rapid advances, this OpenAI and what that might mean for startup and software development. But Jason, let's welcome first our guests to the show. I am al kasha here, dalian from pilot. He is the CEO and cofer at several bobs, which people might recall was originally the robotics division at post mates, which was then purchased by uber, and then the company was later spent out and is now a public company. All hey.

thanks for having .

me guys next size to be here.

So maybe started by just telling us, you know, what you are working on and how close you are to IT sort of hiding the mainstream, which is where all these conversations wind up going in them, assuming we have some great collateral, al of your robots at ork.

absolutely. So we are making this shopping size card, uh, robots. And the job is to bring you, you, whatever you need. Your food packages is last mile delivery robot.

If you go to the sand as you actually see them, all the way of place, we've ve been growing about twenty percent months over months for like almost three years uh in our delivery ary volume. And we are the largest uh partner on the uber each side in in authority. So robots know level for autonomists. They are moving around in hollywood and and many other neighborhoods in L A, as we speak.

Define level four for the audience yeah.

So level form means that the robot is not going to make all decisions by itself. But when in is a Operating area is you when it's basically we can an environment is familiar with, you can do things by itself. But whenever IT doesn't know what to do, IT can call home and someone would remote this stepping.

Level five is the highest level that's basically size fy. And level two is your test life. You hold the steering, your in the loop all the time level is you actually hand over a responsibility completely, the machine for extended .

periods of time. And these machines are monitored. And for people who are just listed right now, IT looks like r two d two.

IT looks like r two d two of IT had four chunks. Y A tires like you might have on a stroller. I don't know if you you have kids only when um G F kids. I have .

two teenage daughters.

Oh okay, I I am three daughters, one teenager and two bind. But yeah, god, speed teenager's daughters, good luck. And these have the chunky tires that alex you probably have with your two Young children when you want to go rolling on your stroller.

So for people who don't understand what that looks like, chinky stroller or tires with reads and IT looks like a little r to d to unit IT opens up. You could fit, I think, maybe two bags of groceries. And I understand the larger .

one can fit a pizza in IT. Is that true? Yeah, they can fit like four large pizza, big shopping bags, pret a, so I really is about.

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So the company I know just announced the purchase of another phone called vivo. And when I think our surfer box only, I think entirely of the robots we just discussed to the k robots that are out on the cyborgs delivering food, but you guys just purchased vivo, which is making something called the auto koto. And we have some in view of that here, but it's a robot that takes all the other actors and the, and then does a of the manual works. You can then turn them in the clock. How does have IT into what you're working on and how much should you pay for the company?

Uh yeah, great question. So we've been more big picture. We've been trying to bring robots to real life applications, uh, in the case of delivery robots that literally Operating on sideboard and public spaces as we speak.

Uh, but what one thing you learn when you're working with restaurants is that you need to meet them where they are and they're not just sitting there thinking about, oh, what am I gone to do for my delivery and then what am I gone to do for my kitchen. They're sitting there thinking I need to bring automation and efficiency to my entire connect set of problems that I have. So we had this opportunity to acquire vivo.

I've known the founder of vivo for some time. He was one of our first investors joined our board. So we we ve had a very close relationship.

I had an opportunity to bring them on board so that we can offer this holic solution to restaurants so that we can be the partner that they work with when they are trying to solve these problems because they do have limited time and band with to do this work. So auto cota is great because IT actually helps restaurants like you put later doing a pilot together. Process of voter is about you know twice as fast ah but there are other things in the vivo umbrella that we are. We are also gonna working.

So how fast can you scale these robots? Could I know that the daily active robots for serve for the on the ground cycle robots are growing? I think that was twenty one percent in the last quarter compared to the proceedings quarter. Will the auto coats have a similar growth trajectory to them?

I, I, I finites think that would be the case. Uh, now during a pilot face right now be reported. But if they pass through the pilot process, which is a very well defined stage, stage gate process support, they have thousands of stories in the country.

So just a matter of, uh, manufacturing and skating IT up are deliberate robots. We have a contract with uber to deploy two thousand of them, which we are doing next year. So we could be the largest autonomous fleet in the country next year because of that contract .

alone in these Operate inside works at a limited speed. I think slower than humans are about the same speed dist. Humans, five miles per hour. And my correct yeah.

it's like a fast walk. If you wanna kind of state me that, you have to put a little bit of effort.

So five miles and six miles in their and there are remote Operators, less people think that this thing is going to smash into, I don't know, I did if IT, if IT smashed into a toddle, who has happened til like walk in front of IT. IT has the ability to stop and IT wouldn't do much damage if I did. I mean IT my bulldog would certainly do more.

I can guarantee you that. So um but talk a little bit about the human in the loop currently. How many interventions do you see and then what are the nature of the interventions? As if people still kick in the robot and messing with IT or is IT they've just got to avoid you know a garbage can let's fAllen over on the street yeah .

you touched a couple of really important thing. So far, these robots have about three thousand times less Kennedy energy than a car. I I really simple of thinking about IT is every time you're getting your car to go buy a car ton of milk, you are all really accepting the risk that car could come in contact with other people and and that obviously could be a really bad outcome there says these robots meant to replace that car. We are already making roads safer because we have so much, uh, you know.

less connected energy. S equals mass time acceleration. A that of physics that nobody can get away with.

These things don't wait a lot, and they don't go very fast. Eliminate death. Death is not a possibility. Here, a Bruce, you could potentially get a bruise perhaps.

That's right. Exactly right. So that to me, is the biggest safety safety kind of benefit. But but we still don't want to bruise people. So the robots have you know the same kind of sensors you have on selves driving cars like lighter and and cameras and more. So they're actually quite smart by themselves.

The video you just show, by the way, I should say that is that was my brand new car being used as a test subject. So I have a lot of confidence in this. And humans job is less about safety because they're not there in real time to see everything that the robot does. Their job is to solve that long tail of problems. So when the robot doesn't know what to do that, when they ask for a remote Operators to a step in and .

help OK use a remote control, right? Yeah.

they basically have a joystick. They can command bot to do stuff.

Young OK, but already. So i'm very impressed sed with the safety features that we discussed. And I know you guys are scaled manufacturing.

So my question is, why aren't we seen more server about out there than we are today? You guys are talking about getting to two hundred and fifty N L A. In the first quarter next year. Why isn't IT twenty five hundred or twenty five thousand.

you know, to get the entire Operation and make IT, you know, commercially viable, make the cost work the unit economic sound that IT takes some time. It's most this kind of take cycles. And I actually saw your episode sky deo, it's that kind of ten years IT takes from the idea that's very exciting to when you actually have all the pieces working.

And you're like year seven, year eight right now. So it's basically that ramp up moment that's happening finally and and now it's been a lot of question about can we get access to capital to go ahead and and ramp up. We this year, we raised about eighty million, most of IT after we've been public. So that has now given a stammen tion to start the scaling up.

okay. So I did you have the capital technology works out the next two years are going to be a rapid growth in number of robots. How much work is IT to add a municipality? Like I know you guys are looking at texas as an expansion route.

Is is there local regulations? Oh, what uber had to go through earlier or on to deal with? Or is A A bit more in field few guys expand to? Actually.

IT is a don't no laws by default that makes this robot to. And IT has to do with the fact that, you know, they don't Carry the kind of canada energy. They don't move out the kind of speed that cars however we are, we've learned from scooters and other folks that we actually try to engage ahead of time. So we reached to the municipalities like when we came to lay and said, hey guys, you're gonna be coming here.

We don't think there's anything against, uh, you know what we are we are doing, but we do want to to be uh, collaborating with you and in every time we've actually tried uh to outreach, uh try to reach out to to cities, they have actually told us that we can go ahead and we have a hundred percent adding record basically. So in the case of a late, they gave us initially a letter that said, yeah, totally find you and come Operate here over time. We worked with them and put a permit programme in place. So there is no legal limit, is actually much easier to do compared to the other options.

flipped the standard Operating procedure, which is beg for forgiveness as opposed to ask for permission. yeah. And I think this is like very notable in the startup space. When you are coming into a space, you have to kind of read the room, alex, in the room in this case is airbnb left uber and wo have all and tesla and everybodys already come into these municipalities and started talking to the cruise about autonomy, about ride sharing. And they kind of it's a different moment in time in twenty, in the twenty twenties now, then IT was in the, what we call them.

the teens, yeah, the teens, yeah, the teens. And now in the twenty, I don't know the in is.

but is the odds than the teens? Now twenty. So in the working twice, people can expect this stuff. How many interventions per hour do you have to do in los Angeles in this current test?

That's a good question. I uh, we don't measure that will be actually look at the output in terms of how fast are we, uh, getting the device on our be on time. And then is is safe.

And then we let the Operators decide what they want to do rather than try to track matrix. Where would then try to enforce them to not intervene. That's not a good outcome.

So instead, we actually look at the output, uh, but there are certain things like crossing intersections. I always want people involved. I want them to be watching. The robot is really the only unsafe kind of moments for robots, not because the robots are unsafe, is because the cars are unsafe. So we want people to be involved .

in that moment. Big ger customers, I know you do. You gotto get that A C V trending up and you wanna push your turn down, right? Sounds good.

But to sell to those big buyers, you need to clear all of these compliance checks. You know that that means you've GTA have things like sock to sort IT out what sock to. It's a standard and ensures that companies keep their customer data said.

And if you aren't sock to comply in, you can kiss those big deals goodbye. You're not gonna end live house customer. You're not going to be able to Operate at the highest end of the market, but va makes IT really easy for you to get and renew your socks to compliance. On average, venta customers or compliance in just two to four a week can take months with venta and the automate compliance for gdpr, hipper and more so you can sell to bear customers in whatever mark up you start up is going.

After ventas gona save you hundreds of hours of work and after eighty five percent of compliance class, stop slowing yourselves, team down and use venta get a thousand dollars off advantage comes like twice venta documents twice for one thousand dollars off your sock to so when you talk about um you know sort of growing the company is the plan for you to own and Operate fleets or to provide fleets too, I don't know, cloud kitchens to provide them to grab or you know pick the other provider yet because IT does seem like you're an arms dealer here. And I guess the question as as an arms dealer, do you want to create a nation state and go up against store dash, uber eats? Or do you want to provide them to those players and let them brand themselves? How do you have you see this shaking up?

I really don't want to make things that the people have made and you know trying to build the the channels that, uh, door dash and uber is another first build doesn't make any a sense to me. That's not really very bad value. Uh, what I do want to to create a robust that can exist in human environments and food delivery us is just the first step up.

So right now, we plugging to existing business models using our first partner. They pay per deliv'rance drivers， so we charge them per delevan. And this slight that we have for ubs actually shared for seven can tap and use that.

There are also one of our partners. There are other folks like we've talked about, like shake shacks, so they can all use the same fleet. Now there are some folks who may want an exclusive fleet that say you're working with walmart.

We had a pilot with them, uh, a couple years ago. In that case, the robot is in their facility and I would be dedicated to them. So now they are paying pair hour for those robots. And then the ultimate h kind of vision for us is that we would then open the platform for other people to build their own robots on top.

Do you know magna? I don't, but that's a brilliant concept here, title magnis .

here of an automated largest in north america. And they have actually licensed our text back to build their own robots. And they are also assembling or robots.

So we have a separate part where they make a robot for us, but they are going to use our technology now to build robust for their own application. And to me, that's the ultimate vision for us. Food and food va to us is the first kilter APP. You're building the kilter APP and to and make IT work proving IT that this works so that other people can come in and use our stack to build other kind of .

applications that fast. I I want to go back to the to the the uber point about how you get paid a per delivery fee compared to the drivers can pay the fee. How much cheaper is IT for uber designed delivery through your robots versus uh, a human? It's a we don't .

disclose the Price obviously, but what I will tell you is IT is cheaper today and we are basically splitting the saving with them so they they uh h you know get uh cost benefits from using robots. And of course um you know that uh also gives us sufficient uh you know revenue um and then I think over time, as we put more robots out, more folks are gonna use the robots in a way is helping us books, strap the platform so that there are lots of robots out there and then other stepping in and also uh use the same robots.

And is still A A large shareholder in the company. Fire call .

correctly there. Yeah uber and and video are two are two largest shareholders. Uh, they have, I think, someone in the twenty percent twenty five ownership together.

I want to talk about one other thing you guys have announced recently, which was a partnership with a company to use your robots to bring libraries to a throne. And I think we've a video of this, I asked this in politics not to be rude, but is this um I Candy and dignity or is this something that people are actually going to be using in the nearest future? Uh actually gets brought to their homes.

But look, we are starting with a pilot soft course. We got to prove this but this has actually been pet project of mine have been trying to make this happen, reached out to the folks that wing um which is alphabet subsidy and uh work with adam and his team and we put this pilate together.

We should starts actually Operating in dallas in the coming weeks um but there is actually a bigger picture here, which is then again, when you go to a restaurant and say I want to automate your last mile deliveries, they are not thinking about okay, I work with you for the half of the uh you know deliveries ies that a short distance, by the way, half of deviates in the U. S. Are less than two, two and a half miles soap.

Those are the robot devices, uh, but they are thinking about all of their devices we drawn. The benefit here is that we can do the short distance with the, but with the other largest and devices, the robot picks up the item, adds to the drawn to complete the device. Now I should explain why the robot es even needed.

It's very difficult for drones to get to the restaurant because restaurants are always in uh, you know, urban environment, busy environment, is no dedicated real state for for a drone or even self driving car to show up there and get riding fun at their door. We solve that problem. We rabb the item because we can go to all the front doors effectively with the robot without any changes to the infrastructure. And then we can take the food to a nearby loading area. I like the video you just shot.

So essentially, Jason could get barbecue delivery house outside of Austin from an Austin based restaurant through this partnership in time.

Tell us about um bicycles and motorcycles that can drive themselves. And now unless the producers to dump calling out table here as if they can find this one, I there was a really interesting one. I forgot the name of IT, but if you just google for your youtube self driving bicycle, self driving in motorcycle, there is probably ten people working on them. IT would seem to me that one of the limitations you have in sidewalks, sidewalks make IT safe, but not everywhere has sidewalks. And so have you started looking into, i'm sure you have this new technology for bicycles, electric bicycles and motorcycles, slash vest POS, you know, scooters to be able to ride themselves and in how closest that technology yeah I mean .

that the brothers question of what is the right phone factor is is is an important one. I haven't seen a ton of traction right now. Read bicycles and two real com modalities right now because what happens if they fall?

I guess that's uh that's is a big problem um all robust right now, complete more delevan than even human careers in terms of percentage. So when we take on an order ninety nine point nine nine or ninety nine point eight percent of the time we actually success complete that we humans are about like ninety eight percent. So we are borne nine Better.

But that's because the robot cannot fall down. IT doesn't get stuck. In fact, the drive train design for the size of the big views you mention that an important part of IT IT can now be all that you know, difficulties of a sideboard.

Uh, but in future, when you want to go up stairs, for example, I think you're gonna new form factor, maybe leg and field, the robots like that. Uh, i'm not as convinced that he would be two wheels because two wheel has its own limitations but it's probably not gonna our comments foregone factor. So it's gonna evolve.

Okay, I want to sit on. So I was thinking about what if we put a chair on the server robot versus have been a bicycle act like a server board? But is our future in which there's like a version of what you guys have that I can just take a bike lane and just sit and go slowly throughout my city because I was a lot of that.

You've just reinvented the scooter.

Know what? I want a mobile. You want to grow.

When I put a backrest on his robot like you, on top of you, there is one of these self driver in technology. But, you know, it's the obvious solution. Here is there are tricks, three wild cycles and four wheel ones, as all kinds of we are.

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Instead of the usual fee only pay what you feel the talent is worth for a limited time only and exclusively for our listeners, just go to cloud dev 点 com sih twist to pay what's fair for your next live star higher just wrapping up your ah in congratulations on the massive progress。 I think one of the interesting links to me, alex, is about this space is there is just so much innovation occurring that is a lot of seeing seemingly conflicts, but it's co petition and it's such an amazingly dynamic space and one that's worth studying for entrepreneurs. When you have a cold petition type market, you'll have a company like this building robots with somebody who builds up another version of their own robot, just like android provides their Operating system to samsung and they also make the pixel.

Then you'll have somebody like cloud kitchens um having, I don't know, a certain famous burger join in them. But that berber joint might also have a direct relationship with door dash. Uber eats h ends were right.

See you. What you see is a lot of overlap. I noticed a lot of restaurants now driving people to their websites so they can use the White level version of door dash or the White labeled version greets and they eliminate the service fees.

So is a very interesting space, huh? Where everything's a bit conflict, no conflict, no interest. yes. Would you would say .

I I hundred person agree, our fees from the begin was I don't want to a do or make that of other people are making. We should find the gaps and try to play in that space because then everybody becomes a partner. So for example, we don't make a consumer APP.

So we are not competing with bit that the perfect uh mechanism for to go order food. Why would we make that ourselves? And i've seen people in the roof space that have actually decided to to to make their own apps for the restaurant, restaurant and for the customers.

We staying clear from that because we want to play nice with everything. There is a lot of problem to solve. And we could just focus on, on the White space.

let's see, average delivery time or the delivery distance right now. Ballpark the robot school .

board over a mile right now when when they completed anyway. And I think from the time we pick up in order to the time we dropped off, takes about eighteen minutes on average.

So I think that this is the perfect APP, alex, for mcDonald's and starbucks. I believe mcDonald's and starbucks are so you big with us that um they could become the place that houses these because you have to houses them somewhere. recharge. Yeah so if you did like a meta deal with cloud kitchen, starbucks, endore, mcDonalds, you would basically have the country blanket and a place where, if you could, so, uh, habitat with them, a place for the robots to get cleaned and to get charged. Yeah, that's a piece of this cleaning and charging and maintaining robot .

exactly at night. When the robots come home, someone has to clean them. Make sure good shape for tomorrow's uh, you know, work and .

most talk tell .

how good they did on. I didn't think that robot shepherd was going to be a job category in two thousand and twenty five, but here we are. But just a build up jesson's point though. We're talking a lot about commercial real estate and the decline of walls and what to do with some of these big buildings that we don't quite fit into our current economy. I mean, Jason, why not just turn those into drone deep POS and then linked into those that are nearby?

You know there's a store front or two available on every block in almost every major city that can get rented. You take one of those, you got IT, you put a bunch of these robots and it's no, it's no. When do you think this? When do you think in your estimation um the majority of americans and the majority of two questions, majority of americans and the majority of deliveries will be done autonomously either through your service drones, cyber cabs, creese extra I have guys yeah a it's .

a fair question and we are usually wrong about this timely ines because we don't get the exponential pipe really wealth um I think by the end of this decade you're gona see, uh, people be deeply familiar with this technology. Everybody has kind of experienced one. We are another.

Uh, uber obviously is really leading the charge. They have eight A V partners now, very more obviously on the right side, doing a lot of incredible work beyond the delivery side, the largest uh, on the platform. So ah I think in the by the end of this decade.

you're gonna have this fairly, we could will IT be the majority in five years line because we could bet this right now.

We can bet ah yeah it's it's I would say there would be majority in areas like the urban areas we Operate, they could .

absolutely be majority. New york sanford eco 3Monica， you believe the majority will be under five years, so before twenty thirty will be in the majority.

I just want to say I have a .

public company so this is speculation. I've got you gambling. You set the over under. I say what you set twenty thirty at the overunder.

So january first, twenty thirty, alex and I will bet IT OK arb cue lunch here. done. Kay, limit, upper limit, one hundred dollars per person. Kay, ladies are invited. Uh, tell me, could be sush what everyone, uh, you take in the over, the under, oh.

i'm taking the IT happens faster, what I believe is the under.

the under right. Okay, so before january first through IT twenty thirty, you believe i'll take the over decorate the majority of deliveries, which you can go with deliveries on, you know of food deliveries will be automated. He, listen, this is amazing, a great work, and you're going to free up people to spend more time with their families and do other things and an increase safety so that we don't have cars.

I mean, a lot of the deaths and accidents that have been going on is because, you know, I don't got forbid like an amazon truck drivers going too fast as or U P, S. Driver there under too much pressure and they're driving a giant tank and and you know, they make some tiny, tiny, tiny mini school era. It's terrible loss of life or somebody is really hurt. So I think what you're doing is just so awesome for safety and appreciate you telling everybody about IT. Uh, any anything we can do to help you, you're hiring for any sticky positions there always.

always robotics, soft engineering, harder engineering Operations, everybody. We are growing really fast. So first to visit our website. There's a lot of jobs there.

all right? They have a folks, and we'll see you soon. Ali, well done. Good to asta. Ex, yes, is that one to pick ups?

I do not recall the reasonable point of, but i'll take the point. I will go back to co appetite because I think that's the exact would have been looking for what I think about way mo and over because see them work together to me on one hand makes so much sense but on the other hand, i'm like uber, are you letting the wolf into the sheets pen? You are they gonna your lunch that they do their own business. But at the same time this .

together you know it's a great point and what you have to do is look at the game on the field. So ah we'll say like politics make strange that fellow will be talking about bunch about politics in a moment IT can be very strange bedfellow. You can have democrats suddenly become republicans.

You can have republicans china suddenly become democrats. You can cause like very strange partnerships because people want to win is one of the great things about capitalism. And you know, if tesla decides hey or cruise decides we're going on and on our own, we're not going to work with uber, lift door dash.

Well then the other partners are going to say, okay, well then it's an advantage for us to work with them because we get to not have to worry about signing up experience or getting people to download and at me. And we can just get all these cars on row real fast and start making money. And I think there's enough money in this that if you know if it's much Better for uber to not make the self driving technology and for self driving folks to not try to replicate what door dash and uber have already built and just sell into IT. But IT does make everybody on their toes. And I think you would not see a people may be uh, signing up to work with each other if IT wasn't so competitive and that like a great dynamic to have four consumers.

Yes, exactly. It's going to great for you and I no matter what, even if uber and we go into a spat later on, I don't care. I'll get more self driving cars faster in a nap that I use cheaper.

What is you, your your way time?

Typically when you are, oh gosh, three to five minutes. It's really great. Actually, there's a lot of movers in town.

There are super easy to get to. And I live in a religious ly accessible part of town, Jason. So there's not a lot of delay. So uber is honestly great. Here I sit, my mom to the airport in neuber this morning.

You know, I am where I live out in the hill country in in texas outside of awesome seven to twenty minutes to get ruber oh you if I do an airport and it's it's bit of major adjustment. I didn't realize how entitled that was. I have been living under this belief that you should be on your way to your destination within three minutes of making that decision.

I never, you know, well, like you, right? Like I should be able to be inside of an uber maximum five minutes. And this idea that you would sit there and look at the screen and wait for fifteen minutes for the person to get there is like, but I live in the birds, I live on a ranch and thirty minutes outside of Austin, you know, downtown Austin.

So it's a little bit different. Um this is where I think self driving could be really interesting because you could deploy robot taxi rain mos into the, you know, sticks into range country and just have them hanging IT out because you don't have to have a human there waiting for an hour for a rudd. And so that's gonna part of the magic here is a whole different group of people we have not experience.

Ed, uber eats dora lift and uber as a default are gonna bly have that as a potential default. And and that's really you know that bell curve will will have the team pull up the bell curve of technology adoption. IT starts with uh, the van guard, you early adopters and then you get the early majority, the later majority and you get the laggards.

And so if you've never seen this a bell curve, we're now on the back end of that bell curve. We're on the lagged like who doesn't have brand, who doesn't have a smart phone? It's like ten percent of people.

uh. And so there you have the folks at the classic, uh, innovators, early adopters, early a majority, late majority and lords uh and then you have market penetration. They're on the shark, makes a nice spell curve and different technologies go up and down the slope at different speeds. I think ChatGPT is probably gone really fast on this because students in you are parents have found out about IT very quickly in in a city uber and dordain when they were almost instant. Self driving will take a little bit of time.

You know that it's interest in talking about parking a cell, driving car in a certain market or a certain location where there might not be a ton of regular demand. So you wouldn't a human there that does open up really interesting variations of what the car could be because if I was out in hill country, I probably want something that's for real drive and maybe has a truck Better or whatever. sure. And if I was going in, but you could also have like a special like uro, like uber locks version of wao that only had, I don't know, bit less or whatever that we're self driving. You can only have those in certain areas yeah you yes.

after the parking in after you just think you're battery you so much, I think new rolls, roy says.

arrive I mean, I would love to go to sfo and have you know the suicide doors opening to be great. But IT does make for a lot of full opportunities. Hope people build more than just one fleet of hunt accords.

You know, you asked me to prepare some stuff on this. So the two news items that are, I think, big on the personal side, uh, last week Jason said that one we were going to track what the trouble administration will do is to the lens of personal employment. Ts, who is in the cabinet essentially.

And the two that H I saw one breaking news, this is not fully reported that and confirmed yet. But yes, Stephen Miller from trouble administration one will be back in troubled administration two. I heard that he's going to be the a deputy chief of policy, I believe so I will back check up, but he's coming back and immigration hock, if you will. And then also tim holman d is going to be the new border ZARA. He was also administration one and according to an mpr article that I was reading just before win on air he has warned undocumented immigrants to quote start packing so I think Jason, looking at those two, the lens towards um I would say a immigration both legal and illegal is relatively uh, negative or you might say conservative .

yeah I think the laws will be enforced is what we will see happen immediately. So I think the southern border will be closed as opposed to the last four years where I was open. Kind of not debate at this point.

And we can argue with the statistics that IT was five million or fifteen million is it's some many millions of people are crossed into the country illegally. So then the next step is, okay, what what do you do about that step one is going to closed the border. I think we all agree trumps to do that.

And eighty percent of americans are in favor of that. They want people to come through legally that it's unfair. And I have a lot of friends who are immigrants. They fear it's profoundly they feel it's profoundly unfair for people to sneak in versus actually going in um you know illegally.

So okay, I get that the next piece then becomes criminals okay, if your criminal and you came to the united states or your high skill, would you be like the two ends of the spectrum, get somebody incredibly high skilled and or a financier who wants to invest in the united states, so somebody wants to build hospitals in the united states or work in a hospital, a doctor or nurse. And we need those high skilled immigrants. I think we all agree, like we should go recruit those people.

And then in other side, if you are a criminal and you beat up some cops like they had on TV, or there is venezuela angs, you know, in sa Monica that have been caught doing home invasions. Nobodies in disagreement that those people got to go immediately, arrest them to put them no problem. Then you get this piece in the middle.

And this is what I think is going to to be all consuming in the new year. So i'm predicting we're going to have the seventy two million people who voted for carmilla in the seventy five million americans who voted for trump going to war for twenty twenty five. This is a early prediction over this issue.

I hope we do not see people being dragged from their homes, families being deported a and then you know people taking videos over and just the brutality of that you know somebody who's hard working dishwashers at a restaurant, remember my dad in his restaurant, no americans would take the job in this society and nineties to watch dishes that was all mexicans who were here illegally um and um you know people's nan's or housekeepers, just people who are in those frontline jobs if we deport them in some very large way I can see this being quite chaotic so I am hope you know my big hope is to not have chaos. Yeah I saw your chaos and i've just i'm basically putting IT out there for anyone who will listen. Let's do what we can agree on, close the border, let in high skilled and get rid of criminals.

That's a lot of work. Those three things. And then for the rest of the folks who yeah they did break the law coming in here, we need uh um but maybe there there are good citizens and they have the great potential to be great citizens. We can maybe have some Grace were thoughtfulness about how we adjudicate their cases um SHE because this could get a little chaotic. Uh and I know that for some americans, they feel like they're taking their jobs and for other folks, you know they feel like a lot of immigrants feel like I I waited and you didn't so I get all that and none of that is wrong on in fact, all of that is right. I don't there's no there's nothing that's not factually correct there or logical but i'm thinking emotionally i'm thinking emotionally thinking compassionate empathetically uh and also for the good of coming together as a country, we if we are dragging a million people out every couple of months, you know families, kids at our love that's going to work.

I did hear one interesting idea from a friend um which i'll put as the tony share idea, which is if you're hear illegally, you have x number of days to report in, uh be processed, have your application you know, process if you're coming here for compassion reasons, whatever and then we will pay you five thousand or ten thousand dollars to go back to your country and get back in line so you get a little pocket change, the public change of giving ten thousand dollars of five thousand dollars that might seem infuriating to people until they understand that the Price tag is somewhere between fifty and one hundred fifty thousand dollars per person to deport them so you might actually be a ninety five percent savings to just give them a token spending cash. And I know that sounds like a big number five grand to, you know, legal immigrant. They could I pay five grand? They got rewarded for coming across the border.

A way to look at that is what my friend tony, he arrested piece from zappos. Ted, when you finish your a training, he would say, okay, you did you whatever six week training, here's two thousand dollars, if you want to, will give you two thousand dollars h right now to not come in on monday for work if you, if it's not for you. And like one percent, people took the two k so he presided.

People who are in committed by giving them an incentive to leave early. I'm going to get off my so box here. Uh, i'm praying for the best for everybody. No, which I know infuriates people, but have a big heart and I care about people.

I think I think what you're outlining, and I don't mean this archaic ally kind of harkings back to the George W. A. Bush compassionate conservatism concept.

And I don't think there is bad, only bad parallel. I think there's some good stuff to be said. I also I agree with most of that. But the thing that i'm A A little bit concerned about, jin make the high skill immigration point. You and I were both reading article earlier today from the last day of october.

So what is that just about two weeks ago yeah that was discussing how trumps closest advisors were working ways to limit also high skill or legal immigration. And one of things that was called up uh bioware tragical reporting was the potential um to decrease the number of Green cards that are given out for technology workers. And so i'm gonna very curious to see which side of the the trump um I don't know, one point no or .

two point O I they guess a way we could frame IT one point, two point, one point no crack which would be Steve ban in. And what's the guy's named Steve Miller? Steve Miller, yeah, he is the one who said, amErica is for americans and americans only. And I just thought you're awake within spitting distance of the statue of liberty and you're in new york city.

Hint, the capital of immigration on the united states um you historically, I mean maybe the border is more people come across the border now but history ally, you're right by alayo and where my both of my to yeah all of my ancestors came through through my grandfather god Russell James john calenus was a brought a lot he he was a chief engineer and emergent marine. He went through all asia thirty times what he was Carrying in those ships at the turn of the century when he came here. And they misspelled our name wrong at alasia land with case that says was a humans.

So we came from Venus. Well, a ireland, italy, spain, your tired, your poor. yeah. But the thing if we do .

limit high school immigration, the Jason my read is that it's going to be harder for founders to get Green cards to come to launch her. Why covert or built here. And this is going to be just great news for canada, mexico.

So it's interesting you bring that up. Canada would be the way point that has been. And I you know of the west, ten years, anytime I got to canada, i've had multiple people say, hey, please send us people who can't get into the U.

S. Like I literally somebody from the government in vancouver said to me. Jack out, big fan. Thanks for coming. I was there for a visit.

Uh, I had a nice lunch with the, the, the the politicians there who were trying to drum up business for vaccine ververs toronto and quebec and they were telling me that if I email ed them, I could see, see the person who is trying to VISA and that they would zip zp IT, uh, try to make IT happen and I was like, what have never heard that in amErica but okay, they said they're shutting the border in canada. I think a trudeau intrude. U yeah, yeah.

So yeah, he said they're gona shift the border for a couple of years. I guess the populist movement is there as well. So interesting. I know we do have we do have whatever the united losses in bringing founders over here will be uh abadi, dubai, a and sauce and london in berlins gain.

You know I just saw a very interesting story speaking to a baby. Jason, I didn't actually throw this in the show.

No, it's but i'm going to bring you up because I think IT fits into your thesis is about the middle ast um C N B C reported this morning that sticking valleys general catalyst just made their first investment into a sauty arabian stata and that to be fat little bit similar actually wasn't just gc IT was also pain capital's first investment in the city arabia. The companies called lean technologies, I think IT raised a series b where sixty seven point five million. But I think that just goes to show the global competition for talent, for a started capital, for funding, for building. And I just hope that as we change our immigration policy, we keep the door very open for everyone who was to come here and started companies, start a business and not to bring you up again. But I I liked the Green card idea and I would not mind .

seeing that depot to your business plan, are you it's literally not just put IT around your degree the Green card and if you get a term sheet for over a million dollars, stabled to that as well. So click this intended to trump in to my friends who are helping trump um would be a great idea.

I know I think like some of the Jason I know on all in, some of the folks there are gonna doing a little bit of work for the trump administration. And I think we're only about what capacity that will be. Does that stretch to you as well? Or are you not in that people are no.

i'm not working on anything with the trump campaign, nor if I been ask, nor would I I I am rooting for trump to do a great job. I am hopeful, uh, that he has evolved since his first term, and I am genuinely rooting for my friends to be a great influence and to see as much of trump two point now, and as little as trump one poem is possible in the way I defind trump.

One point now is just chaotic and divisive, whether you believe the media made him deficient or he's just natural that way, or people don't get his jokes, whatever IT is. I just don't want to see the chaos during his first term replicated in the second term because that was bad for everybody. The country did not make progress, or I don't want to see the country and people wasting time on issues that we essentially agree on.

But we're like arguing and fighting over, you know the the little details of the margin. So I am rooting for him. I don't think the other guys then they were pretty clear that they don't have plans to join the administration. IT IT does seem like, you know maybe asking for your advice .

that's that's kind of what I an advisory well, because I was gonna if you were going to have input on pushing our favorite Green car policy forward because if you know.

you know, do is i'll write IT up based on what I said today. I'll write a blog post and then I send and to my email list, I have a subject, click a subset, 点 com， and then I have a not or just got a click stop. M, and then I have one that sike, I was gonna for just my thoughts after each episode of all in.

So I have like a Jason's all in newsletter. So me, i'll put IT on that one is supposed to my Jason on startups, but I have two or three mAiling less the subject. I don't know how I separated them, but be in the net.

I'm just hoping that, uh, voices of reason can advocate for high school migration and more of that. I am a little bit worried by the news reports that we've seen, but IT does .

seem like these would be the spicy people, right, who would be going for the most extreme interpretation of you know we're deporting everybody and you know this is one of the big chAllenges with trump as a leader um is you know he says things in such a bomb basic way and then we see, you know, if Peter tels correct, do we take them literally or seriously? In this case, I don't actually know if it's literal or serious. Nobody, I can't seem to get out a piece of information.

Are they literally gonna fifteen million people out there? Or should we take a serious that they are going to shut the border and do what I described, let in high skilled, kick out people who are criminals, and then be compassionate thought for with everybody in between, because I really do not want to spend the next year or two with the entire world um watching the united states at war with itself over people's nanny's, housekeepers, dishwasher, bus boys, carpenters, you know um you know construction workers being drag off websites during their shift. That's going to be crazy um like seriously crazy. Highly inflationary too.

If labor Prices go up super dramatically inside of this nation, we've we'd lose ten million of our you work for us. That's going to be tough. I mean that every single industry.

I have two thoughts on this, and I don't think anybody can tell us what's exactly and have, but it's great that you brought the sad because I was I was like actually thinking about this on a hike. If a bunch of White color americans are going to lose their jobs because of A I, you can lose your job to AI. You gona lose IT to somebody using A I.

So some video editor can edit, you know, ten times as much, you know, or take some one step, the time to edit IT. You don't need as many video actors. Where are those those extra surplus video editors, journalists, writers. Research is whatever going to do with their time.

They might actually be incentive to go work at uh a cheap fan or uh text factory to make cars or to take plumbing jobs, electric jobs and actually get a trade job that place twice as much and has a pension would be a lot of interesting um you know manuvers from the White color to the generation tool belt uh as we talked about yeah so that would argue for maybe it's perfect timing to close the border, not let us many people in and give americans for shot at those jobs what i'll call frontline jobs that doesn't mean their entry level. Frontline means you know in the kindest interpretation like uh, blue collar jobs, I get the front line jobs. You're out.

They're doing stuff in the real world. Yes, it's gonna. I don't know what do you think of that theory that that could be what people are thinking?

White color jobs are going to be going away. We want to save the plummer construction worker job, dishwater her job, waiter job, chef job shutters or chef job for americans. And would americans take those jobs? And then you would have to have businesses raise those wages in order to kick americans to do IT persume. You don't pay not can pay somebody twelve box, fifteen bucks cash for those positions or twenty box in cash. You going to need to make you a thirty five, forty five dollar in our jo B2Be a d is h wal sh in los s in. I remember A A restaurant telling me in sentence, ces go, they were paying forty dollars an hour four zero for a dishwasher in the last two hours were in the overtime bonus, which were sixty dollars an hour one and a half times pay, because I think in sanford scope, you go past ten hours and like a twa typical twelve hour shift at a restaurant, or most from eight to ten. And whatever is the last two are gonna have to be time in a half or something.

So I think is very interesting to think about how will have different labor demands in the future. But I think you would be very hard to get industries to accept pain double or three x with our pain for labor today if we had a shift in the workforce they are describing. And so I wonder if going back to our interview and the autocad to machine, if we're going to see at once, you know, automation reduce the need for for White collar jobs and automation to reduce the need for blue collar jobs, because then, yes, having fewer labor's does imala the impact change into your poy. But I don't think ourselves the core issue of just needing fewer humans to do the work.

right? Cause you didn't right now, the automobile hours, the commonly work or more, two thirds of IT like that. I was just spicing me walk you know ice in the walk.

He didn't need to pit cut IT get that you know walk and get the seat out and and scoop out and that thing did a lot of the work. Um so you're right. And then if you don't need delivery people zipping around on bikes in manhattan, start using little r two, d two.

Yeah, maybe that's what happens, you know, happens as well as we just think less manual labor than every country becomes a bit the open bic circle, the wagons shut, the border's nationalism. And know, I don't know that that makes the world worse. Japan did IT new zealand and sydney have new zealand and australia largely do IT.

Um those countries would prefer to keep their culture uh and to assimilate a very small number of people. It's just here in the united states that we have this very open minded, expand us with view of IT. I've learned over time that there other countries feeling, I think, is falling into this.

Now I think sweden has now falling into this. So like, you know, we have a culture here. And if you want to learn the language and a simulate, yeah, we'd love to have you, but you gotto learn the language, know, kind of force simulation.

You gotta prove IT to us. You want to be here. Yeah, not going to give you the test in spanish or french or german. You're gonna have to take IT in, you know.

whatever japanese is japanese, this is actually a an important point for people who are american to keep in mind because I was born here, live here, raised here. And i've always had a very american view on what that means to be in american, which is, if you're here, you're american congratulating huz. That is just not how a lot of other countries think.

And regan actually said this. Regan said, you know, if I went to turkey around other countries for twenty years, I wouldn't even count them as someone from turkey. But you can come to the U.

S. And B. N. american. And I just thought that everyone thought that way.

naive. You thinkingly uncritically. And then you travel some. You reads the new and U S, that's not the case. IT will be a bummer. I think, Jason, if the nation that was the most open and welcoming became overly not welcoming, I think that will be toward that man.

even given the labor's let's keep, let's keep the best amErica being the place that accepts people and growing. We can have a billion people in this country. We ve got the space for IT. And I think if we really wanted to have here a goal as as amErica should should be, to get to five hundred million americans as quick as possible.

let's go.

but do IT as quick as possible. High skilled people like i'm hunching, we said, you know, we have three hundred, forty, fifty million people right now. We're going to try to get two, five hundred in the next, I don't know, call IT thirty years, five million a year.

So we want to actually have five million people immigrate here. We're going to build new cities. We're going to build ten new cities of ten million each. And that's where these people are. Americans will get a shot at IT, but were going to build ten cities, you know, or revitalized ten cities, detroit, acta, like revitalized ten cities. Put something there, you know, really be thoughts about building housing in those places, high speed rail, whatever IT is, and just start from scratch to build a really great influence, ture, and set a really a identity goal.

That would be american dynamism. That would be .

an american dynamism. So i'm going to write two blog post. I need you to hold me accountable. sure. okay? You are my writing partner.

and i'm going to write that down. We don't forget, I do to get one more thing before a couple.

Crazy, not .

absolutely. Cy.

i'm crazy as we predicted.

as we predicted. Uh, so just one knows some level something here, Jason. And they will talk about what we think about IT fifty two years for the last Jones. We're seeing equities just rally very simply in the wake of the trump the election.

And we have a chart that I pulled from White charts showing off couple of markets and I through tests in there because theyve seen really rapid appreciation in the last couple of days. And then we also have a chart going over fin tech talks, the the public companies that are in the first tex space, you're coin basis. And as you can see, if you're watching the video here dramatically up into the right and bit going .

out there is Robin hood. I know I never sold to share of my Robin hood and I been was down at low single digits when I put a jay trade and I thought more and now it's back above thirty and i've always to start like lad and the team over there just so good. And they released a guest top version.

And I really they just never stop releasing grey paradox coin base, never they mean even with all the regulatory distractions they've had and cultural words inside their own company has always been a really good product guy and keeps that in product. Um paypal i'm not so sure about a firm is back. That's interesting. This why are financial why are financial things coming back? Alex, what's the vis here?

Uh the expectation of lower regulation. But let's be specific um if you think about what the bin administration has done when IT comes to consumer finance, they've anted to do things like capping interest rates, eliminate in what they call junk fees.

Those are all things that you could condo as incredibly consumer friendly things that I would have really appreciated when I was broke, Frankly uh, but those are not great for business if they were making money off of those fees. Those income stems are forward. So the expected is a firm can probably charge higher rates, be a bit more aggressive Robin hood can do things like the prediction markets they got into at the end without getting into potential regulatory issues.

So it's kind of kd bar the door and everyone's very optimistic. And just because you magine IT cyp to everybody, bitcoins up twenty four percent in the last week in the theory, ans of thirty five percent in Jason, I heard that you actually still owns bitcoin. Some here is what you going .

to do with your your funny yeah know i've made some spicy tweet about big coin. We had big coin on this very podcast in twenty eleven and I wrote A I wrote a blog post, the world's most dangerous open source project bit on this blog post. And but I also said to people, when crypto was crashing and the newer cycle, china had banded a couple of countries.

I said, I think bitcoin zero is the likely case. I don't see governments being willing to hand over their currency to an anonymous project where fifty percent of the coins are unaccounted for. Like this sounds crazy, uh, based on what I know about governments, they accumulate power through a currency and weapons and nukes, you know like that's basically in population and geography and natural resources, you know, down the line.

But currency, in weapons, in army, those are the two things that make a nation state. I don't believe a nation state would actually sanctions or allow one of these currencies to replace their dollar. And sure enough, the united states has allowed people to buy bitcoin, theoria and in any number of tokens and gary gancy lor and is obviously, you know, going to be replaced at some point soon.

And I don't know how his term works exactly, but I think we have a situation happening while we're here that bit my bitcoin zero being the majority case, which I believed, you know, through twenty fifteen, through twenty eighteen. I just thought there is no way china, the united states or european governments allow this. And I I put IT at sixty seventy percent background zero.

Now I put bitcoin zero, like under ten percent, like me be even under five percent because I think it's too big to fail um now and governments have embraced IT I never thought they would. I can't believe in and it's going to be so disrupted for the united states government if they keep printing money the way they are. And I don't think trump's gonna, I hope he does.

But I just based on what i've seen by tire life, with the exception of bill clinton, I don't think they're going to be able to stop the runaway spending. I hope doge works and they do dose the department of government efficiency. But I don't think it's going to be that dramatic if IT does happen at all. Um you know it's .

really interesting that you're talking about the the government position because this really was for luck of Better term the election and I know we're talking a lot about you trust forces, terrorists and terrorists and all that but underneath all this was a lot of adverbs by the crypto .

industry yeah know lots of money .

and lots and lots of all this one thing that cypher VC have its staff capital and they put IT to work points to that but people like the new senator um i'm going to try to pronounce your name here long I believe once to build a national bitcoin reserve trump in to a bitcoin event and said will never sell our national nation's bitcoin and so I can't tell back to your trump one, trump two kind of thing.

Trump one was very anticipate to to trump two theoretically in favor of IT. I'm curious to see how far that go is because if we do actually, at the federal level, embrace this particular crypto currency, I mean, that could be big for every start up in the sector, every VC was induced in the sector. I mean, I please spread out.

I think if you're in the government and you want to maintain control of your country, I think it's fine to own some baccarin. I think doing your own um you know national crypto project, which trump has been alluding to, not his personal life and got that are like a personal gripe whatever trump coins he's doing or sneakers .

or watch from cards that he was like .

doing like like that lets lets put those aside, but like an actual USD. Uh, E U S D.

sure. Well, no, they don't want to do that. They don't want to do A A, oh my gosh. To put through the cycle a central bank crypto o token. There's A A B C or something.

I think the idea is keep that third party in the hands of circle and other companies that are regulated, but that not directly the federal government and they just buy U. S. Government debt with their reserves, which is pretty cool. But that's prettier from bitcoin, which is non backed, non regulated and you know.

pretty distinct a possibility of others could wind up is if government truly felt threatening by IT is you just put a ten percent tariff, since we're getting into tariff territory at ten percent tax on crypt o when you buy IT, you pay ten percent. When you sell IT, you pay ten percent, then it's at a twenty percent disadvantage to the dollar.

So it's you get all these advantages is not a dollar, but it's kind of ankle the bit right? It's kind of throttle and you already pay a certain percent right now to transact on IT. But if federal tax in addition to capital gains or maybe remove crypto currency capital gains and you make an ordinary income, there's all kinds of different ways for the governor.

I'm not saying i'm advocating any of this. What just saying less people clip this again and make a clip of me, you know their faith but that that is how I could be countered. But for now, if you donated there twenty percent of you're bitcoin to get trump l elected last year, you're up thirty forty percent now.

So that was probably a good trade, uh, and I think that the big money in politics we're going to see, uh, happened over over again, which is people made some pretty good trades here. If you were jeff bazas, are you on or a number of people of the people who supported trump? Ed, directly jeffs with tiktok. He was really in the money trades to support him. And I think that the democrats have to look at their anti capitalism, anti crypto, anti innovation stance and realize you that's part of why they lost you know.

the the anti crypto dance. I think it's kind of dead. I don't know if that really persist because I think about IT four years from now, let's say trump a doesn't take go for the third term or about and let's say je s losses in eight.

Just bear with me here the incoming democratic president go back and try to undo four years of people policy. no. So I think that that conversations now effectively .

the horse is out .

of the barn horse the barn.

the horse and the bitcoin horse left the borne because they said it's not a security and a theory um is not a security ripple. They're so saying is the security because IT centralized and for people who are directing IT, I supposed to like IT in the whole how we test nonsense .

so that's really important because because and just in horvath wrote A A long post that the cyphered team and they said, i'm going to quote here that entrepreneurs should now all feel empowered to explore all of the ground making products, services that bloch enable, including tokens.

And I am here for IT. I I said from the beginning, I thought dows were really interesting. And I very much wanted to start. I wanted to toko ize, our funds for venture capital, OK no launch fund, for which is a forty five million dollar early stage vehicle that goes into the university and accelerator companies and, you know, companies of people in my network and friends who, you know, start companies.

And I have that special access to, if we could cognize IT, and any american could buy IT, I could raise a hundred billion dollar fund and never go on the road itching peace, because I could have literally, you know, a million people give a hundred dollars, or a hundred thousand people give a thousand dollars, and I would love to have one hundred thousand people give me a thousand dollars for fund and let them trade those tokens as they wish. If they think we have a home run there, you know, not on what we had another Robin hood come ubon taca o whatever. And you know, they want to trade every day, the tokens available to trade.

And you could speak in on IT. You could build a position in our fund. You could clear a position in our fund. That would be awesome.

would be great. Well, if you take the crypto positivity of the trump campaign, then cross IT was something in that we talked about. I think I was a week or or two ago the tim Scott bill in the senate that was going to make IT, uh, easier for people to invest in private companies. You could actually not have the credit investor test, happy token ize fund and IT would essentially be completely open access to anybody with a phone. That's a very different world.

Yeah, I would very much like to explore this. There is somebody because I get pitched on this five, six, seven years ago, where people were pitching on token nizing fans. And I like, but the toga ization doesn't help me IT just creates more overhead, more expense. But I would very much like to have A J coin where people could buy the j coin, the coins could buy equity and startup PS, and then people could trade them. And you know, I would just publicly share everything we've invest in and you could just go to this, but I wouldn't give decision making over, but I would really, you know the problem was this was going to add a million dollars in expense um to the starting of a fund and then probably accord a million a year so you would be at like four million dollars in expense, you know and then customer support never there. Maybe five million expense over ten or fifteen years to this would be like a half million dollars a year on average to manage the project, which I guess if you have a hundred million or two hundred million, our fund is okay, but I was just prohibitively .

expensive. It's then you've bring up the j coin idea because um going back to I think it's two thousand fourteen yes. So just over ten years ago I wrote this for tech lunch.

I think we can call this up um I jokingly introduced crunch coin and I was going to be the native currency for technical employees and you would have to get paid in crunch coin and that was the only way to buy tickets to our events. And it's not a good idea. This is still like IT was an April fool to ten years ago and I maybe it's not going to be able fulls to token five more years the world's crazy man.

I love IT this um you know this will be something great that comes out of the trumpet administration in his term if they can make cyp to safe for retail investors by forcing them the people who launched the products, to have their names on them, to have insurance, to have a board of directors.

But ow, anybody who wants to buy, let's say, under a thousand dollars personally of any token, let every person be able to spend ten percent of their early income on any securities they want and yolo, because then the most in american college would be ten percent of what they made that year. So if you're, I don't know, plummer, who makes a hundred thousand a year, hundred fifty thousand a year and you won, you know, yolo ten fifteen grand into doge coin or big coin or syria or michelin j coin. And well, if you lose IT, guess what? No vacation for you this year, you do to stay action.

yeah. And then next year you get a vacation because you chose to to make a bet for you and your family, right? And maybe a pace often. And then you can buy a second and third home. So I like treating people like adults.

And I I think there is an adult path here that trump can set up with the accreditation test and limits on the amount you can invest per individual. Problem solved. yes. Now just we do have .

some good audience questions that I want to get to in the second, but I want to rap spicy, take on the stock market, if I can, just so enthusiasm, we discuss stocks. Arap people are very excited about, you know, less regulation and maybe less spread tape in general in the economy and all that. But there's an interesting counter bet that people are talking about.

And IT comes from war. And buffy t so right now, first half way, which is the anti start up, if you will, IT is a holding company of cash generating assets as opposed to a high growth cash consuming business. But one buffets are, well, no investor for a lot of reasons. And right now, he's sitting on a record amount of cash.

And the three hundred billion, four hundred billion.

three hundred fifty billion, something something crazy like that, that's a big number. And the reasonable people think that omaha's oracle is doing this is because the buffet indicator is incredible stretched. And I have a chart, uh, here for everybody.

The buffet indicator, if you're not familiar, is just the market capitalization of U S. Space companies divided by G D P. Uh or if you want, is the will shire five thousand divided by you? Our current GDP and Jason were at essentially two hundred percent plus um of this ratio, which is incredibly stretched compared to historical norms.

So just to be a contrary and just to be a debby down or here on the show, I wonder if people are properly understanding that dogs were already a little bit expensive. And our broad basis going into the trip administration and that could limit upside. And then that could mean that a lot of the enthusiasm, the hope for deal making and I P S might be dash because the stocks end up going down just because of fundamentals. We won't get all the Candy that people expect to rain down from .

these guys that he he likes. You take us correct? Um buffet likes to buy things on sale. He doesn't believe apple is on sale anymore inks, it's fully valued. He has concerns about people. I think this story has a lot to do with apple and him falling out of love with apple OK. And so I think he cleared that a lot of that position, maybe even all of IT, and that had done incredible for him.

And I think he's probably looking and saying, if I have a bunch of cash and meta goes back down to a hundred box to share or you know a apple losses half its value, I could buy IT again. And so where there might be other companies, you could buy a significant piece when they're at a discount. So that's probably what's going on there.

I think you know the the spending of the government has been so dramatic and there's so much money in the system that the money always makes its way to equities because you know putting IT into a ten year, you're going to make four point x. Putting IT into your cash, your bank account is. Close to five, I guess, if in just having cash.

So until the rates come down, people are gonna just keep putting money in equities um and in cash. And I know I I don't see a world. In which matter, apple, tesla, ea, take a nose dive. I, I, I could see them correcting twenty percent or thirty percent. And maybe that's enough for warm and buffet to make his move.

So oh, then if stocks go on by thirty percent, i'm going to stop eating, just like can buy more.

That would be the large building to do you. That's why. So yeah, I mean, meet you.

The exact same thing I was like, these companies are on sale. I bought, met at ninety one dollar exedra and all of IT did amazing. Basically two x in two years.

He was Bakers in terms of return, right? Been a great episode. Uh, we do IT live monday, wednesday, friday, but this week will be monday, wednesday, thursday. correct?

That's correctly.

where we moved the all in tape. And for people who know all in tape on thursday. So if you want to know my personal schedule, it's typically monday, wednesday, friday, west and thursdays, all in one of other best they had to switch.

So I think we're taping on friday. So I moved the twist taping took thursday. You'll see us all here back on wednesday about twelve sh my time in texas, texas time.

One P M is coast. ten. I amish are are on the left coast. He's alex. I'm Jason. Cautious optimism that news if cautious optimism that news? No, not if you're into IT. If you get to this point in the point you're into IT, go sign up right now that a completely shackles throw a honey into the pot and motivate alex to keep writing every day and we'll see you next time. byebye.