A Once in a Lifetime Investment Opportunity (EP.385)
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Welcome to animal spirits, a show about markets, life and investing. Join Michael bada and ben carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of red host wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of rid hold wealth management maintain positions in the security discussed in this podcast.

Welcome to animal spirits with Michael ban. IT is tuesday, november fifth, nine forty three eastern. So by the time you are listen to this, say no of results, the election, we maybe we won't thought anything that happens after to this in terms of marker reaction. Obviously world we're not forget to that today. But josh then Kelly and myself are doing will come on to youtube wednesday evening to talk about what happens in the Marks to the lunch, the election.

Four P M. Eastern at the compound, right? Yes, I don't get matter of us.

We don't have good election takes here. You can listen that stuff from anyone, right? So we got one .

more program. I note next week that an uncommon to the midwest .

next week already, right.

a week from tomorrow. Then now you're speaking, we're doing a podcast with alex Moore from F M. Investments in the great city of chicago, my second favorite city. I had a bit of chicago til twenty but .

there not city, the one that I love.

Okay um in .

twenty has a cop out .

answer it's the truth is my answer.

okay?

What's your favorite city? Can't be Green bits. No things going rabid. Yeah, this is not the best city with all .

there even Better performers, little.

But anyway, I love chicago and i'm very excited to always .

I can't wait. So it's a night of we're doing a light talker book with Alexis is from F M. Investment and cocky lls after years and I believe will put a link in the shown it's free as I right and what the link says mabe i'm so if your .

chicago IO you want .

to see us comes .

to hi okay who you .

voting for um warm buffer cash pile .

okay deal .

you've seen all the stories about this. I feel like this is this is turning into a one hundred six months story now of its cash piles at record highs. This is from cdc.

Berkshire hathaway cast for trust tops three hundred billion dollars as buffs sells more stock freezes byblus. So the inclined here is, okay. Buffett's getting defensive. It's time for the market. Ts.

get defensive. I, I, I F T. Buffett getting conserved IT before the election. yeah. That's what time more in buffet investor for seventy five years has invested through sixteen elections. And of course, what does he do before every election he raises cash. That's what warm buffer does.

of course. How about this? The guys ninety four years old, if he's conservative because is that he's obviously not investing for himself. But I think the point is regardless of whether now is the right time to get defensive or not, like the market is up a lot, that's probably why he's selling. And but if you're going na try to match your time, rise into a ninety four year old billionaire who has insurance conglomerate that always has a tonic cash on hand, i'm guessing he proudly doesn't have the same time horizon as your four .

one care broker account.

Probably not just a thought .

that but that's my a his his return on the investment and apple IT could be the single greatest investment of all time just in terms of dollar dollar just yeah not present just dollar dollar um and apples like I don't know apple doing so great like it's like the company the revenge is not really grown in the companies that really growing in that much. So he had an incredible return. This takes them, chose off table. I would not read into this at all.

IT is kind of funny, though. I remember when they bought apple for the first time, no one was like, thrilled about IT. No one was being, like, all this is gonna the greatest investment ever. People were kind of like L, G, Z as he can lost IT. He's buy an apple.

Yeah, funny.

That really wasn't amazing investment. okay. What's about the stock market this year so far for where we are? Uh, there is a new subject I file.

This is a listener of the show called duality research, former finance person. I think he lives in switzerland. We've got a lot of international audience here, you know that.

So he makes some of the coolest charts i've seen. He knows this weekly dashboard of the S P. Five hundred and and then each different sector. And so he shows the total year to date return this is through last week is in twenty one twenty two percent um average stock is up fifteen percent this year medium stock up fourteen percent equates up thirteen. So it's a of basing.

There's usually a bigger there's usually a bigger gap between the average stock return to the media staff return. I get special of the last ten years, one cap ID has dominated.

That's what the median socks turn actually surprised me, I thought to be much lower because our talk of mac created this chart where he showed the top five stacks this year by performance overall, the index video, facebook, amazon, apple and google, and they count for roughly half the game in the to b five hundred. And in video accounts for twenty five percent of itself. So the other four ninety five are like eleven percent.

And then these five companies are ten percent or something pretty while. But I guess that that works. Here's, here's what I talking about. The White are so, so there are twenty seven hundred eight stacks. S in rust, three thousand.

Now how many do you think you're down on the year? How many those stocks in a year where the market of twenty percent? How many those stacks are down with negative returns .

so far this year? Eighteen percent.

Uh, you know, I do this. I can give me a number I no sorry I do is tighter than that. It's uh more than one thousand six eleven hundred. So it's forty percent of the total is down in the year. It's surprising isn't IT?

Um that is surprising. I would guess the last one thousand .

is little lower. Yes, that must be some microcap and small cap names. But there's more sacks down this year that are down fifty percent or worse than are up hundred percent or Better.

That's the thing is I think that's pretty Normal actually. I think the number is thirty to forty percent of stacks are down in a given year on an average even when the stock market itself is up. 没有， which is another one of the reasons that stock picking is very hard. Can you imagine if you have tuna stack .

tics that were down this year?

I probably do from .

being honest. Yes, I think about the wasn't Michael rule number one to win three .

in a bulk market .

down on stocks are going down.

that's fair. So differently .

you like you could buy and trying by depth in the ball market, I guess, sucks that aren't working. But if if you have sex in report folio, that red right now they are down, it's quite a really good reason for that impressionable on them. It's general, not specific.

Voice buying the dip works Better in markets than individual stocks.

the least of late. Yes, of course, toby carlie tweet something that is a bit of a face blower here heat he is a chart showing free cash flow uh farmer french data from one thousand nine hundred and fifty one to August twenty twenty four and he shows the most expensive versus the cheapest relative long term performance. And the line goes up into the right in terms of cheap stocks outperforming or the cheapest outdoor ming the most.

And I was .

to the right until, let's go, what is at twenty fourteen and peaks and all of the relative outperformance since g nineteen eighty three .

is amazing. And so the draw down.

the relative drawdown of the most expensive verses the cheapest has been unprecedented. A lot of reasons for this. I certainly think that if you think about, like, what were the effects of ka, I think that this charge is a fair depiction of IT.

Like what else could you? What you could you? How what else could explain this? Because is not this is not the growth versus value per sue. This is not apple versus dup. This is the most, this is the most expensive versus the cheapest.

Have we reached a point where the highest quality companies are just going to be more expensive going forward?

But I don't think that I don't. But I reject I promise that the most expensive, also the highest quality, I just I don't think that I don't think that there's .

a lot of overlap there OK. I would have to see the names that that's my guess that the text acts have been the most expensive because if you see any of the S N P X, the top ten rex tax, tax, it's cheaper.

So this is this is free cash flow. So this that's that's a metric.

I have to see the cks, but the chart is is pretty insane.

I I would love to see the names oh, actually so he likes the data. I don't know if the names are in here. If we could not if we could find IT.

But but wild chart. And I got to know more. I have questions and I got a little more speaking of chart. Chart can make a great chart for us showing that since july tenth, that's one tepic. So when I picking range random as date, the Price of tech fell five percent, but the earning exemple mates have been revised high by six point seven percent, which is what do you want to see in a ball market and consolidation and .

it's pretty good starts getting cheaper .

that yeah exactly.

Okay, that's good. short. Last way we talk about gold and I put on into the map created for me by decade so I I update this after I talk and a lot of people said, hey, idiot, nick collis told you guys why gold to go up.

We didn't listen before hands, so we didn't know, but he was saying it's it's all central banks buy more gold because you can't confiscate. Why are they all buying bitcoin? Where is all the central banks buying bitcoin? Kers don't want to .

lose all but the central bank of microtubules buying a lot of bit coin.

More come on later. But so going back to the seventies, gold does really all stacks do poorly. Then stacks do well.

In the eighties and nineties, gold does poorly. Reverse in two thousands, reverse again in the two thousand ten. This is the only decade of the past five, six decades where both of them are doing well.

So the gold is up thirteen percent per year. The center, or this decade, stocks of fifteen percent per year, end of the decade. Which one .

wins stocks? I don't know. Would you expect .

me to say do not true? I'm IT wouldn't surprise me if I was gold is all on saying shocker .

that wouldn't be surprised at the outcome of of uncertain future.

Yeah, that's the point.

What would surprise you may hold your fit of the fire, but anything surprise you because this is this an opinion show, right? We have to give the audience some opinions, some entertainment. You can't just be on the fence of about everything. Come on on.

One of my early bosses in this business told me, its okay to be surprised. Just don't be surprised that you are surprised. How's that and that good? I remember that once.

So how about this? I take here, everyone keep worrying about the long and going up, right? Interest its arising. This must be bad because IT means inflation is coming back and all these bad things. So I shown a research guy do the inverted al curve when I was like the worst when the I think he was in july of twenty twenty three. So the short end was waiting .

higher than the and so pretty .

and good also. Uh, my son had my phones all the day. He's seven still he is reading a lot but he's still figure out like the english language that we always complain about and he goes um seen just text to you he said what he said your friends seen, he just texted you and I said, don't you know any kids in your class name, Shawn anymore? I don't think that's a name for Young ds, so he he learned that this was shown S A. And I told him, and you know, like, you're right because he said, mean, is M E A N why .

I wouldn't shaan be seen sense. But yesterday I was, how did this happen? Trying to think so. Logan loves nothing else matter is the song from metallica, my logger's five and he's a little monk. He's he's very te little boy so we aren't youtube, but I think I saw video I can't member but anyway, I showed him, I showed him the music video from nothing else matters and then I showed him like IT in a concert. So we could like see that there are real people on this.

There's still all the metal of concert videos, are them in the rain.

This one was not of the rain. But I I know there are a lot of us. So anyway, logan and turn look to me any smiled and he went like this and I started to like, I just IT was a cute, sweetest thing ever I litter was crying like, not tears, not tear I I had tears coming down my face because I was just IT was soft, sweet and he's like, no, what did that was so cute .

you're bigger sap and I am moving I think I was pretty y .

that you've even even bigger.

I I back to the yellow curve. okay. So the yield curve is getting more Normalized for the long is coming up.

And I think this is actually healthy development that like the long, the curves, finally helping out a little bit and bringing things more in the baLance. And so people are worried about the fact that rates are going up a little bit. I get the the worries, of course, borrowing and mortgages. And but isn't this a good thing?

We're getting back into Normal. Cy, but you act IT depends I I would like a real evacuation that yeah like you want this. But if the narrative for why rates are going up is true, which we spoke about this way, I don't think IT is true. But it's not like black or White, you know I mean.

yes, but my point is okay to look at this side of the two and not just say IT bn vigano or the end of the world or inflation is coming back IT doesn't have to be those things that I and also, if you're IT hurts, if you're someone who's borrowing money, but if you're fixing common investor, this is way Better. The alternative of rates. Just a meme going back down. true. right? Do you have had like the from your ad you had the like the paint manning line from your helmet.

What is this? Ah that's that's that's new sweater. That's new sweater.

okay. Uh, good tweet from mons proposal. AmErica inc. Is so big, the neither of painters worth ninety billion dollars .

in the doll. which? Which company is .

this of the tape? This is your renovation story .

I do on sharing. Williams.

I did not realize this. A ninety billion dollar company, do they pay a good divide?

Are you being paid to weight? I think I don't know.

I IT is funny to think about IT in these terms. So I I put a you in here, a breed our favorite corner breeding places worth at eighty billion dollars. The coffee place on the corner of every city is in america. One hundred and ten million dollar company is an auto part store. Autozone with fifty one billion dollars is crazy when you put IT in those terms either.

We've spoken about this in the past that thinking about investing through the lines of market capture probably cost investors a lot of money, right? Oh my god, a truly dollar company. You can't talk about the market out without talking about the fundamentals.

obviously. What's the revenue? What's your next for share? What's the growth? What's the bayside .

IT would have seemed impossible to have five trillion dollar a decade ago even. And now is just it's kind of no remembering two thousand ten, the marketed bounced, I don't know, seventy eight percent from the laws. And I was I got like a tax return or something. So I got like five grand to work with. I go pick some stacks here.

I think the road I invested and doesn't even exist anymore is that one of the early zero three broke ages? And i'm looking all the stocks and going like I missed IT you know, I could about IT at the bottom a year ago and it's too late now. I was in two thousand and ten, i'm sure all everyone of those socks that are up, I don't know, two fold since then.

That's that's another type of thing that has cost investors countless money over the years. I missed that.

Yes, we're looking from the bottom of the top, whatever.

And then you know you know interesting about that look like. So all right. So what do you say, mick? Like you should just like chase and buy everything and don't matter a bad valuation.

And that's what what i'm saying. Pod, if you zoom long enough, I guess that is what i'm saying. IT always feels .

you miss IT true. alright. This is from R, B, A. And at A, C, A, I association, they wrote about what is the once in a generation and western opportunity look like what i'm sorry, what's rbac uh, Richard brennan advisers yeah, you don't seen B C. yesterday.

So they talk about some of the biggest generation like asset class investment of the past forty fifty years. So they set international socks over U. S.

Socks from one thousand nine hundred sixty seven and one thousand and eighty eight, which is a period private. Lot of people don't realize the U. S.

Under perform for a long time. Uh, U. S. Stocks over cash from one thousand nine hundred eighty seven to two thousand, as when rates were coming down in stock marketed on blubble.

Obviously, energy stocks over the broad market from two thousand and two thousand and eight. So energy stocks are really well during the lost decade. And then U.

S. Stocks over cash from two thousand and eighty, twenty, twenty three. And they they have all these good charges to hear that show these things taking off and how they did.

And then they kind of plant them on the same chart and show the relative gain and then how at the end of IT IT reverses. And you get some minor version, which is a cool chart, and they basically say we think we bounced ing in the anything but large cap. U.

S. Stocks could be a once in a lifetime opportunity right now. Small caps, international value stocks, anything that benefits from inflation. They're saying that global economy is currently undergoing major inflection across inflation rates, globalization, corporate profitability, demographer ics of government baLance, cheese. So they're saying, all this confluence of events means now is the want to lifetime did to diversify.

Well, listen, if right here, right now, in november twenty twenty four, if this is the peek of U. S. Large capstar ks on a relative or absolute, is, I wouldn't be surprised, would you?

The hard part here is that .

we've been saying this for seven years. Now that's what makes IT so hard.

yeah.

Fell like a once a lifetime opportunity for four years. No, I wouldn't be. I would be more.

No, I be more surprised if the U. S. Performs again. So considerably over next decade, that would surprise me more.

Me too. Well, I about more that if this continues for another decade, the eight percent annual performance of what effort is of of U. S.

Large over take anything else? Yeah, that would surprise me. I really would.

right? So last week we talked about the election bedding whale and people giving theories about what if this guy is betting in election markets to move them because they're relatively liquid. But he's also making other bets sound th Epace. So in different currencies in well, the wall street journal tracked the guy down. They give him a feel, they say, as a sudden.

But this public market thing is built on the on a theoria, like this is a, this is a black chain beace.

So you you can look at the trade, that's how they figure out what this guy was because they they track the trades, right?

And I feel like that part of IT is like not really being talked about. It's kind of call.

yes. So they I mean, we gave this guy too much credit. I think I because reading the story IT almost doesn't even seem real but obviously the world journal that there fact check in here, he says my intent is just making money. He said ah he's interested in the polling.

He believes that pollsters um there was a shy trump voter effect so he says that's why he vote that's why he's betting on trump and he says if hairs wins he could lose most all of thirty million dollars, which he describe as the majority of his available liquid assets. Wait, what I read that I couldn't IT doesn't seem real. And I also says, like if he wanted to blow out of his contracts now, he's such a big part of the market that he would crash. He would crash the market if he tried. Because if he got worried about IT, I don't know if he could .

do some hedging trades, or what if you don't get thirty million dollars in investable assets by being a dumb ss?

Well, what if he is a trust one .

baby that seems .

more applausive to be than him being like some credit swiss trader?

Well, because whether or not the market really was under prised, who in their right mind would go all in on such a thing? You know.

I mean, he might as well go to put IT on the role that rather black.

right? Nobody does this. So I know this this smells a little bit. I am not buying IT.

but if IT is real, then it's it's a fantastic story because what are you doing, bro? Even if he's right, this was a terrible decision.

This guy accounts for twenty five percent of the contracts on trump, one of the electoral college, and forty percent of the contract on trump in the popular vote.

Oh, he bet on the popular vote too, so he could, trump could win, and he could lose the popular vote. And this guy still loses money. This guy is not my risk .

man selling about mary where ma Dylan us about Stellar. It's cute not to buy IT, but cute. That's my reaction to this guy. Sorry.

done under rated. This is from pock news. So you just reading, uh, from William coin, he they talk about kind of markets and everything I got me thinking so he says one long time wall street trader worried that deep pocket friends of trump are driving up the D.

T. J. Price that which is the the truth social back, I guess that tied to trump to make a Victory look appearing, even though the stock market background voting parents are decidedly different animals.

Someone like elan could be buying the stock. He mailed me, no big deal monetise for him. But the funny strength and D. T, J. Stack gives the impression that trump or win a this is obviously speculation. But IT is interesting just how, like the more markets we have and the more stuff you have to bet on, just the more narratives and like third order affects.

people are willing to watch on to the dog, right?

IT seems like, but then doesn't IT all couldn't all just come unravel though and be like, oh, we were all looking at the total, the wrong thing like bone yells were doing this and the pa in a dollar like.

well, I think that just just from the lens of markets, one of the things that i'm excited to say about the outcome is like, was this this bedding Marks that we were paying attach to? Was the complete noise right? And or was like, oh, they they actually they were right.

The Better markets were right? Yeah I I guess it's hard to say anyone can be right. I said none, but everything is so close. It's harder again. People money with month around .

the predicting markets have shown trump with a lead for the last couple of weeks.

Yeah, but it's it's a very minor lead and .

I think that this is symposia one. So just because even if they do get this right, who's to say that look at the next right, right?

That's the partner, don't we one hundred years of data, this what we can go back through and see or the .

liquidity and but but we all speak for me at least I defer the markets usually write a about most things like most for most asset classes, for most securities. The Price on the screen.

I just give me the Better of the us. I yeah guess that's right. Just the guy accounts for .

the di guy in.

of course. okay. So over the years, I think we've the financial blog as sphere has put some arguments to bed.

It's like we've written enough to talk enough about this. We don't need to have this discussion anymore. Index funds is the big one we .

all use to do about index fines are okay.

True is always new people coming long. But I feel you've tried to put the cape ratio on the bed. The fact that it's not very useful a million times I did.

the less the less piece that I think I wrote about that was was at twenty eighteen like i'm i'm not writing about anymore.

but I think we can put politics in investing. Don't mix to bed like if my my point is on putting something to bed is like there's enough information and talking points out there if you still don't believe this and that's on you.

okay. I think I think that the politics yeah I think I think that is the higher approval rating of everything that wood says I put to bed yeah among among financial professionals what whatever your political filiation is, I think most people say, hey, listen, this is this is .

not the thing been about politics and investing. Don't mixed. When he was at the washington post, I put all my blog posting her that have written over the years. And he was like, tanza shang can link to and shown at but yeah, my point is like if you're gonna say here's five stocks to pick of trump ins or hair swings and five talks that that line of thinking.

if you still doing that, then that you no not necessarily because the companies we showed this chart last week, the companies that would be most impacted by trumpton fs that have been going down in anticipation of trm Victory, like that's that's legitimate as opposed the same like the markets going to do this or that.

Here's the thing. Politicians talk a lot. They don't always fall through and that's the hard part about trying to type policy to investing. I can give you the headlines for a year from now about what the policies are still want to go.

right? So so it's possible that the markets are over discounted in a trump Victory and what is actual term policies would do? Yes, it's fair.

Yeah, that's my point. It's really hard to do. Jp more going to have a good one hear about like the econic markets have to fair well under all government configuration.

Good chart. We've got a we've done a whole bunch of chart. I'm sure to go through some more on our live stream at the compound to, but that's my whole point. Is that like if you're still if you're saying the economy is bad because the democrat or republican is in office, i'm going to sit out this market and not going to invest and time you my but .

the other the other thing is in defense of those people who feel that way, they feel away because it's their emotions talking right. I think that like I think that most people would intuitively understand if you shot them, the data that, like the present, doesn't really impact the economy of the long run. But people get emotional.

So this is from greg IP at the water street journal. Here's this headline, the next president. And here is a remarkable economy. The high quality of recent economic growth should put a wind at the back of the White houses next occupant, the contrary. And me kind of wants to short this opinion and just say that whoever is in the White house in the next four years is probably going to face some chAllenging econic times at at at some point. Yeah IT seems like things have been so good that taking other side of this would be would be timely, easy.

打字 i'm trying to .

yeah nothing .

else is yes， okay, uh, look at this. So this is real GDP capital a from earning to asi. They show the projection .

and great name IT just sounds good.

That doesn't yeah, that sounds like a movie character name, right? Come on, sound. Get over. Get my office .

sounds like a broadcast or name like cbs anchor from the eighties yeah.

So they show G, D, P, per capital is. And they did a train line from generate twenty, twenty, what the projection was of time. Obviously, back then, they didn't know anything that would happen from there, but they say three point two percent above prep andel c expectation this gd real GDP per capital.

So that's inflation adjusted, which is just wild me. So I think the way that I will get IT is the president is kind of like parenting. It's way easier for them to screw something up, then make IT phenomenon right.

Like I don't think you can make your kid be the the greatest person in the world. You could help them be a Better person. But I think it's way easier as a parent to screw up your child.

Then IT is to make them the best person in the world. I think, I think, I think that's the way that the president works for the economy. It's way is to to throw a monkey ranch in the economy and screw things up. And IT is for them to make IT unbelievable there.

Yeah, agree. Do you think about your parents differently? Like now that you're a parents of all the time?

I think about this, I thinking about, I remember my dad and he is the same age as me, and IT changes my whole world view of them. I think about .

that all the time. Same, yes, like they were OK.

The passage of time still remains undefeated. I I want to tell about twitter or quit. I feel like back in the day, twitter replies if there's always been trolled on twitter, but back in the day, the tools that we used to get where you know now show japan they were psychotic.

The replies, right? They were, the people might have been like a little bit psychotic, but that the replies themselves were just rolly not terrible right today. Now the replies are just so psychotic.

And I don't know if they're all bots or what. But but this one, this one, definitely me laughing. This is like, so I posted something last week and I said, listen, unemployment rate is four percent.

Inflation rate is two point four percent, ten years at four or something percent. Al GDP g growth has closed to three. If is such A T such a thing as a sweets about for the economy, we're basically in IT right now. No predictions about the future. Now think about politics there.

I just said if you looked at just those sets of numbers, you would say, oh, yeah, that's that's any kind is coming along and it's in a perfect place, right? If you have to pick those numbers, could you pick Better numbers than that? Not much, right.

Did you know this is a val? Probably right. This is provocative.

Not like, I didn't think IT like this though. I I was just looking at the data and here's the numbers. I didn't make any projections.

One rain, yeah, but you knew how I would be received.

yeah. But the sad part is that IT shouldn't be received .

the way IT is though.

Yeah no, agree. But it's literally .

just data body responded to you just try to order a breakfast sandwich and I have a delivered IT can't we work? IT was thirty three dollars. Inflation might not be down. The breakfast place was flu broke to me. And so you did this mean.

I replied to him with the private taxi from a brito meme, which we talk about a couple weeks ago, which is, which is the perfect response, right? Usually I look at the responses for maybe five minutes and if he goes viral like this, I meet the conversation because I know it's going to get bad um and then a butch of other people jumped in in and said, wait, I live in new ork. There's no way you're .

got a great guy this guy was replying to everybody, right? So I could following the thread just because I was interested. And eventually, far enough down the thread, somebody goes, show me, show me that all, I don't believe you.

And he posted the order. And this is just chefs kiss could to grab the whole show, bang, bang. He said, forgot that I was going to get hash Browns.

So the burrito was sixteen fifty. He ordered hash Browns, which was a box which is still, it's expensive, but it's not what he was exclaiming. This totals twenty four fifty.

And then the delivery fee, the service feed, the tax and the driver tip. Yeah, we've been on this dordain is crazy expensive for years now. But it's just it's amazing this person was just complaining and complaining and plaining.

And that is like all I forgot, I always and this, this is the internet. This, this is the internet. It's called a complaint. When did IT become cool to complain?

IT is the internet. It's like, everything is just you.

I just but that social media, right? You reward varieties for the negative. And so and so that's it's fun. If we've been trained by the algorithm to to become more negative, because the dopamine hit from having people respond to you reinforces like a death loop of negativity. IT rewards bad behavior rewards negativity.

I just can't leave one of people who have just have the brain worms of I don't trust the data. I don't trust the experts, I don't trust anything.

I don't it's brainworm some social media.

Yeah IT is tough. Anyone a bill bride? I I posted the chart last week of inflation by decade, comparing like twenty twenty up to now verse of two thousand and ten.

And bill mic bride did this by decay going back, tanking seventy in. The shocking one to me is a couple of them. If you look at the twenty twenty so far, it's not that far off the train line from the one thousand nineties inflation, which is pretty surprising.

But the other one is, look at a high inflation. Was in the eighties, the one thousand nine hundred and eighty blue, the two thousands out of the water, like way above where IT is, and then IT kept going up. It's just funny to me how people look at the eighties as like economic time of nava na and inflation was really high the eighties, but I guess I just wasn't as high as IT.

Isn't the seventies he funny? If there were social media, like obviously of the general population, if you adjust for social media was way more unhappy about inflation in the thousand nine hundred and eighty they just didn't have. They couldn't broadcast at the war that we couldn't all in real time commiserate yeah.

So the sentiment indicators maybe were a little not as bad as they. Good news on the inflation from my other insurance fell this past six months. Progressive sent me a thing, a lower rate, great benefits just for you.

And, uh, yeah, four percent. My policy rate was down. And a lot of people said, then keep switching your policy.

Readers going to jack IT up next time. Guess what didn't happen? I have deflation in my auto insurance. How you like that maples?

I love those apples.

A lot of people have been telling us about the climate stuff with insurance. And you know, you guys aren't talking enough about the litigation. And there was actually enough of all that last week talking about how the litigation florida is so bad that all the insurance companies keeping suit that part of the reason that the cost for so much time there, I guess they're making changes that so if you haven't do that, you can catch someone.

I don't, but I okay, somebody detailed us sort of around, but you guys can forever cross off money out of oil from youth list of things to worry about. I work for a major truck manufacturer, and at a conference today they said fifteen years ago, we made thirty million gonds a year of renewable diesel because people had extra soybean oil. They didn't know what to do with this year.

They made six billion gallons. Well we could. We could, within a decade scale at the hundred billion, we need to run every truck track to train boat in airplane. America, the other ways we know others, because traditional oil is so cheap.

Ailed, you've seen the mean before about, like investor guy says, we're running out of natural resources. And then IT pointing era when IT says some middle amErica finds a reserve of this, of this resource. And we have plentiful for decades to come. And I just keep going in a circle. Okay, but I guess that's this name.

okay? We we had an email with the subject, the deficit doesn't matter. So this person said, I ve listened to the pop for three and half years, and Michael is always beating the strong. What I can I love to your thesis on why you hold us to be true rather than take IT as fact. Every time ninety percent of my portfolio was .

encrypt or encrypt equity.

i'm just so he said, while big coin cycle based performance can be attribute of variety, things like global equity easy mount tary policies following equities ripping IT set of the core long term thesis is that money printing does matter.

Frankly, i'm just curious how tropic this could possibly be enough burger and he shows a federal debt, total public debt is time my paltry ted Jones, maybe you don't agree with the USD despite narrative, but to claim that the deficit will continue have no impact. Economy essence a strong okay. So I don't think that IT doesn't matter.

I guess I don't think that I know enough about like honestly, about how the economy works and how deficits work and how IT functions and all that sort of stuff. I guess my my thing, if I could boil IT down as that. If you were to zoom in on this chart, i've total public debt, which is up to the right at any point in time, in one thousand nine hundred and seventy, in thousand nine hundred and eighty, in one thousand nine and in eight hundred and seventy.

Like at any pointed time, if you were to zoom in real time and look backwards, you've at the high point, right? So if you to change from one thousand nine hundred and fifty and thousand nine hundred and seventy, you'll be like, oh my god, this is unsustainable. And then from one thousand thousand nine hundred and ninety and then today, and I understand the status accelerated, my point is if this is your reason for being extreme position, like this presence with clipper, which office worked out OK?

Um and that's bit a bit power as if uses as a reason to be negative ea xy cuties or or to be like a dome glum or a bear like the people have been saying this since the beginning of time. That's my point. So I am not smart enough to say this doesn't metics, so I Frankly don't know.

And I think most people that that uses the resume basic definitely don't know. I don't know. So what's the thesis here? Like what's the cat is like that people are going to reject our treasuries.

And if you show this, yes, to just show show assets, like show assets against liabilities, showed the total pie of wealth. If this is your chart and this is the hilt, you die. And and and the dead is going to take us down. You're missing everything else.

There is a magazine cover in one thousand nine hundred and seventy three, and IT has uncle sand with his hands out and is power empty and said, is the us going broke? And to your point that I I think it's okay to say I am not comfortable with the size U. S.

debt. But also I don't think it's going to lead to a calamity because here's the things we are going force on our favor. We can literally printer on currency.

And if there is a strike against treasury's, guess what japan did. They started buying their own bonds. Eighty percent of the japan, the government bonds in japan are being boby on.

You think the treasury wouldn't do that if we needed to borrow money? Of course they would. And then so I think the biggest constraint we is just inflation. That's the biggest risk. It's not I don't think there's going to be some end of days where people dismissive not buying treasuries anymore because what's the alternative?

Yeah it's weird and that what you just say, we will pass some will pissed people off in this camp. Yeah you see they're just going to buy our debt and this is going to get worse just the day.

if I could be even worse. No, no, no. We can litter. You can't compare the U. S.

Budget to a household budget because we can literally print our own currency. A household cannot do that. Oh, well, i'm pretty in my own currency through hello alone.

That count that does, you know, happy, get more hits the ball of a jaws, the guy and gold James one hit an office food and shoot a says, you got play fEllies. This is the world that you live in. You don't live in an alternate universe where the dead is not what IT is. This is the field.

Guess what's ah that's going to be higher in the future. But I don't my whole thing is not that the debt isn't like you can't say you never worry about IT, of course you can worry about IT, but I don't think it's going to be this reckoning. The sudden is going to come in time and everyone's going to wise up and go, oh, time for the role to come to an end.

I don't think that's going to happen. I'm talking to come on, rose. I asked the compound next week and .

I ask all these kind of questions. I doesn't matter. And like if that's your thing and it's it's not found new topic .

for the week in the goods dox. So I did here. I'm fighting this negativity, seeing my my new topic here, right?

IT to A I good news to the week.

OK, what is good news? The week cost of college is going down. This is from the hill that com. This is surprising.

The college board found instate tuition for public universities down to eleven thousand, six hundred and ten hours year, compared to twelve, one hundred and forty dollars a decade. O colleges come down over the past decade. After this is crazy.

After grant a is applied, the every student would pay twenty four hundred and eighty dollars, a decrease from a little more than forty one hundred in twenty fourteen to twenty fifteen. So the sticker Price you see is not what you pay round liberal. A good book about this.

For private schools, the net Price is all over sixteen thousand, down from one thousand nine thousand back in two thousand six. So this is the average of what people actually pay out the sticker places. But what they pay, after all aid is taken into account way lower than you thought. Correct place on some of .

the numbers you see.

You don't trust IT. They're literally taking the numbers .

from the colleges. Everything that's wild. I know.

Alright, cypher, I got a i've got a cyp the question for you. So over the last year, bitcoin is destroying a theory. Um I think I bring this last week so pRobing out up to date. But over last year, bitcoin was up like a hundred and ten percent in theory. Ms, up forty six percent .

else has destroyed a theory um salona killing IT Price wise.

So I looked at the market cap of this. I think the market cap of bitcoin eat is like eighty twenty. And that's probably the long term average action has been going down. Is this is this surprising to you? Cause to me, IT is because I remember in twenty seventeen and twenty twenty and suggesting a theoria is the HTTP of crypto and it's going you can literally buy the internet in its program able contracts and it's Better than bitcoin in a luque r bitcoin is still king.

Yeah so eat is still like four and a half times the size of salon in terms of like a market cap. But in terms of performance, I I don't enough about the space to talk to lightly. But so long as killing eats in terms of performance this year.

i'm surprised that this is the case that bitcoin is still like the king of the hill here.

Well, biton is dilating fws. I don't think much compared a bitcoin. Eat that for our anemic. And I think that the bitcoin realist is probably part trump related in terms of him being less harden on the ring, the toy .

side risk han, i'm putting that at .

risk N N camp, I know .

because I your depth bitcoin .

have been to actually like shuttle .

all year. The regulatory stuff has never mattered for cyp to s the etf as IT.

There was a point to see a when the nasi was thirty percent of big one was flat zero. It's not a risk on thing. If this was a risk on thing, bitcoin out of such shit all year.

I think the regulatory stuff is a sideshow for cyp to people on cyp to make a big deal lot of IT. But I don't think it's that big .

of a deal IT doesn't matter if IT IT is, isn't that's the perception like there was monster flows last week, I think positioning for a trump win, I don't I don't know. It's hard to know why biton moves the way IT does. I'm just telling you that if if if I was merely a risk on thing, big going would not have been sucking wind all year while the next was going vertical .

stop in sucking wind or year. I'm going to crazy .

this year listen, I follow close when you do no .

fans it's a hundred and ten percent of the last year that sucking .

wind how do and ten percent going White charts see you .

you're believing into .

the narrative dude, i'm not everyone .

is a prisoner of narrative these days.

Big coin has gone sideways from march until now, like it's gone sideways .

for because up.

But the nassau and was ripping IT was a risk and market and biton was going sideways to down as I call up because it's because it's risk on that .

makes no sense to me. Agree to disagree here. No, so much.

IT was up so much. I had a great run into the etf, but for march now and went sideways. How much is the stock market over the same time you're .

making you're making a little murcia detail here.

I'm not i'm not bitcoin. okay. How about this? Do you can say nothing matters. Sometimes things matter.

Bitcoin over percent return matters.

Overlay a chart of bitcoin of D, J, A and a poli market and they all are moving the same direction. If you think that all three lines move the same direction, a coincidence, then you're delusional OK .

cyp to people think that that matters. But why was IT up so much in the first two months?

The year move the well, the etf flows, that's why.

okay. So I would take the etf lows matter more than what people think about politics.

How is that? no. You can just you can just .

reason one sideways is because all the etf flows got sucked up early.

And then not not every not every narrative .

is yeah but you're looking at very this is a top up election and you're saying that that's .

that's perception is perception.

The market will do fine under a downer crat or republic and o okay.

complete non. Second, I not talking about anything other than bitcoin. D J, T and the prediction market are all moving in the same direction over the last couple of weeks. So i'm not i'm not grasping that's what happening over the .

last couple of weeks. It's yeah in the last year.

Yes, yes, the election tomorrow, dude.

we're arguing past each other. Um new highs again, new all time highs for housing case shelter, home Price index. Ah I like, are we good now that's the first way. If anyone we make up alright, don't go to bed mad of me.

Uh, so I feel like every time I post about housing Prices at all time, has someone feel like, do you can't think that having housing Prices all time high is a good thing? How is that possible? The sun there must .

love this.

Yeah, i'm in the dark here in the light. We are the .

england model I have to put there on. It's the sun is blessing in my face. I can see the lines of song, right?

So every time I talk about housing places being in autumn hides being a good thing, because I think I put an alternative, people, they know that you can't look at, there's a good thing. I VISA people buying homes. It's bad for them.

And I agree, but it's kind of like the lesser of two evils thing. I remember living through the the housing crash last time that was not good for anyone that that took the economy down. And I think housing places being in all time highs, while not fun for people buying houses is way Better than the alternative of housing Prices being down thirty percent. He is there.

Yeah I mean, not not afraid to push back, but who's saying Prices that don't set IT Better the Prices that all .

of us people who want to buy .

a house or saying that duncan .

probably saying that. Uh, okay, good one. From x eos, on the age of home buyers, they look at repeat buyers, all buyers of first time buyers going back to the early two thousands.

And repeat buyers has gone from roughly forty years old to sixty one. Now on average, the average age of all buyers has gone from mid thirties to fifty six, and first time buyers has gone from thirty years old, but thirty eight years old. All of these are moving up. I guess, is this just boomers swelling everything and Young people being pushed out further and further?

Well, the repeat buyers, I mean, that makes a lot of sense, right?

Yes, they have tons of equity. Yeah, they're moving for retirement.

Whatever is the first time buyers .

that makes sense to me too. It's gone up last.

last couple years. Yeah.

this is they would have been more established to have all of my money to buy.

Life is more expensive than I used to be. And you know one of the reasons why, like sort of this isn't this isn't really true. Like, so i'm sorry, afraid to say this. But .

everyone has .

everything. When everyone has everything, everything is expensive. And of course, not everyone is everything. But my point is like a lot of people, they have a house, they have two cars, they want to go on vacation, they want to do this. And if you want to do everything, everything is really expensive. So IT makes sense that it's people are getting married later in life, that it's you're getting a house later in life because it's everything expensive.

Here, here.

I and you're going to love this. This is an article from pensions and investments. K, K, R sets its sites and four one k plans via target date funds.

K A, K.

K R reported six hundred twenty four billion thousand and went up eighty percent over a year. They managed fourteen billion thousand in its case stories, sweet of products, which are designed for individual investors, up from five billion a year ago. And next, they want to get into together funds thoughts.

Honestly, if you're going to invest private, equating retail channel, this is probably the best way to do IT because it's in an uh, for current plan that should be liquid. You could match off for the so I I actually don't hate this. If you're really want you invest privately. Yeah, you thought I was .

the time right and works well. I just thought you were arrest the target that is definite.

probable, necessary. But people are going to want that would seem to be actually a reasonable way to do IT. We're going to put five percent private equity, these target date funds, I guess that kind of makes sense.

So pitch book k puts out a weekly link, a weekly email on all sof happening like private credit markets and the leverage al markets. So I thought this was interesting. In a sign of today's bullish credit markets, the ranks of U S. Leverage loan weake est link, which is a habitation of the fault activity, just hit a two year low.

But as pitch book L C D rucell cocos explains this, a sensibly cheery news is largely result of the proliferation of the liability management exercises by distressed issues as well, private credit lenders, which have the reputation of being less diverse tourism watched banks, have stepped in to meet the refinancing needs of chAllenged. That issue was so this is real. This is a very, very interesting story, right? Sounds like, oh, wow, the weakness links.

Is that a two year love in terms of like who might but it's because these private credit companies, the opponent of the world, the K K, S of the world, are working more closely with their borrowers to make sure that they don't affiliate as opposed to the bank loans, which is syndicated and at sort of every men, woman from themselves. And let's just get what we can. So again, this is another area where I don't have enough expertise to say this is, this is good. This is bad.

Maybe the financial companies with this is a good thing. Look, we can do. We have the ability to change things that are not going away.

Yes, the ability to like work with the company and periods of the stress and be flexible with the conveniences whenever ver getting through is probably a good thing. I think the I see the other side of IT, which would be like, wow, this is going to be bad that you're probably of the umbly companies like I said, I see that I don't I know. Do you know do you have .

a private credit index yet that we can look to like here's the index of private credit. Here's the average across all. That's what I want to see. I want an index .

of private credit. I don't know these loans are so infrequently .

traded that thing not not information. That's that's I guess it's .

deprivation. I think it's a it's quarter season. And I listen to the microsoft gy call and IT was wild.

You were slacked on us about this year of the day, and a credit to you for listening to this, because I would have done IT .

yeah as watching sunday at football on mute, listening to Michael son and Robinson, like, what are you listening to as a gove's irs? Uh so so the company the actual software business, which is really a side show, lost eight hundred and a half million dollars ah in the most recent quarter which again totally relevant I just thought was interesting.

So in their sly in in their deck, they show the bitcoin holding since I implemented the strategy and the third quarter twenty, twenty and one thirty eight thousand, up to two hundred fifty thousand biton today, kind of wild. But here's the same thing. They call this intelligent leverage and they talk about like they call IT, like a as A A bitcoin yield is how what they call IT. So they say that the total bitcoin has increased thirty three percent over year, while deluded shares outstanding was only up thirteen percent. So the issuing shares to buy more bitcoin, more shares, more bitcoin, more shares, more bitcoin.

So they say, uh, our track record, this is from and can who is a CFO he said our track record of using I would did and access cash to acquire bit when as part of our treasury Operations has resulted in value creation for our shareholders and establishes the foundation to execute on our twenty one two thousand one capital plan, which is twenty one, yes, billion in debt and equity. And that's because the technical guy to the galaxy, the number forty two, whatever, to buy more bitcoin. So our objective continues to be to accumulate itchin holdings at a faster rate than we issue shares, and we have a demonstrated a solo track record of doing so to assess our performance and achieving this strategic objective, we introduce a new key performance to get a less quarter, which we refer to as B T C yield.

We define B T C yield as a period to period percentage change in the ratio of our total bitcoin holdings to our assume diluted shares outstanding. We use this KPI to help assess the achievement of our strategic objective and to evaluate capital allocation decisions if we increase our total biton holdings over given period at a faster pace than we increase our assume directions of standing, we achieve a positive BTC yield. And i'm listening to this and .

I think you like .

very a the john Riley like like what in the world are they being talking about? Um however.

the credit the cup stocks is going nuts.

However, listen, it's working. okay. So i'm confused. I don't get IT maybe you don't get IT and not to be two results oriented, but in this case, I have I have to tip my cap because they had a plan and they execute of the plan and a work.

So microstrip gy, over last four years, annualized up one hundred five percent. That comes up fifty three percent next seven, twenty eight percent, fourteen percent of five hundred. Some more slides from the deck.

It's beaten every company in the S P. Five hundred since since they adapted the big strain by a lot, it's up almost two thousand percent. So Michael sailor said, the more capital we gather, the more powerful we will become and the more we in witch our our own shareholder.

Ldh, it's totally counter tuition because everybody else in the world thinks of you said equity. You dilute the shareholders. That's true. If you don't have a use of proceeds that gross faster and yells more than the S P. Five hundred, the cost of capital is the S P. Five hundred later, he says microtron is pie near this by combining capital market activity with bitcoin in as a treasury reserve asset with the embrace of BTC yield and the BTC field shows that, in fact, we acquire the capital in the matter that was a creative to our shareholders as a posted dilutive and that means when we're actually engaged in the capital market prospectively, we're doing IT in an a creative velocity fashion um so IT just IT sounds like a perma py on top of a pym's. Um but IT works .

until IT doesn't IT works until .

bitcoin crushes, right um so this is here's the final word for for microsoft for me he said bitcoin is grown fifty percent. We don't know what I will do in the future, but my personal long term view is over twenty one years bitcoin is going to grow twenty nine percent A R. So that would mean I get some, Matthew, then that would mean that, that big coin will be at forty million thousand coin and IT would have a two hundred eighty one. And I know there's like coin's coming to market. So this is not this is not exact two hundred and eighty one trillion down market cat, which sounds like a lot of money sounds like is that more than every all the assets in the world?

Here's a stance for you.

I don't believe this prediction i'm going to go to.

Let me say that i'm guessing that's not going to happen.

Um yeah just just really fascinating. Like the largest A T M equity issuance in the history of capital markets is being used by Michael, by bitcoin.

I would think if bitcoin percent per year or the next twenty one years, you should be pretty happy. If IT just equates launch m stock market averages, I think that would be happy as .

a crypto person. It's wild, really, really fascinating ipad. Somebody sent us this prime amErica household budget index, which is a monthly index, illustration the purchasing power of middle income households with income between thirty thousand and one hundred thirty thousand, which seems like a very wide range.

But the chart that were looking at shows that anything over one hundred means that household may have extra money left over at the end of the month that could be applied. Things like entertainment savings or that reduction and the trend higher, which is good things, in twenty fourteen, up into the right in two and twenty till we went all way down to eighty six percent because things were so expensive. Now we've rebounded. And in August, one hundred two percent, which is a good thing.

And the low twenty fifteen s make any sense to people are covering from the cries.

Then somebody email ed, us, uh, this photo from their baseball field and IT says reminders from your child, i'm a kid. It's just a game. My coaches of volunteer, the officials are human. No college scholarships will be headed out today.

I love IT. We have signs of a lot of our fields, and everyone ignore them.

Design go, oh.

that's great and have posted an instagram. Then you yelled the rough, right?

So IT like it's going to be so humility for the spouse of these maniacs. Yes.

that's and I would think aren't they embarrassed?

Like do these people go home the next day or or either like that was A I think .

people think they're right. It's like they do. It's the comment section on the internet like a lot of to have IT.

That was my right, right. Here's one from gary Rogers, seventy three years old in our comments. One years time is one seventy third. That relationship is what causes us to feel that time is speeding up as a way age, duh.

It's a short your life each year .

is a shorter percentage of your overall lifetime. That's what makes you feel is going faster. Are you doing the exact alphand x right now?

Think about IT.

I you've lived long enough and then each successive year is a shorter and shorter period of relative time in your whole life. That's why feels is going faster.

Okay, it's hard to it's hard for my brain process is a lot of fun of there.

But k, so somebody email us.

there's a homework checkless email that goes out every week because last week I spoke about like I don't know that there's all these filters. I mean, somebody filters said, so I subtribe to this and like a weekly reminder, like k dumas, you ve got to do this OK.

Let me if you .

are like me and your your a home chAllenged for, like a Better phrase.

this is for you, right? This is why I think you just buy a new house because I do not want to worry about this stuff for like seven years. It's fine, right? Uh, our dog is teething because she's a puppy.

She's like four years, four months old and i'm not going naming the named my wife is watching yesterday and let her out of her site for a little bit and she's drink oneself because she's teasing and SHE ate accord to our hooks up her modem, to the to the eternel thing totally to the cord internet and how house goes out. And it's like a weird data cord or is not an eternel core. But it's kind of got a phone jack thing.

And I don't know. We had this and I couldn't find IT anywhere. I went to best buy and to hardware radio.

Chapt doesn't exist anymore on the walmart. No one had IT. So this is last night, like five at night or like crap.

We have no internet, so I bought on amazon overnight delivery. IT was hear by four in the morning. We order six P.

M. It's at our house by four in the morning. Plug in the wall we have over .

again in the morning delivers incredible. I the yesterday came like there's same day delivery for stuff.

Now do you want to know why people complain so much? We have so much convenience in our life that if anything ever rocks the boat and makes our lives inconvenient. We can't believe that are up in arms.

Yes, this is the whole thing. Things are so good that we have the complaining is a luxury.

Yes, IT is right. So friday night I go to crack on bottling and put sideways on every couple years of sideways. Have little glass red, big red line guy. Now.

I, by the way, by the way, who's that? Who's that guy from washington that senses the case of that is a great.

full, hearty ventres. I still, I get, i'm another wine club. And once a court to this, in a case, wine.

it's full .

heart venters venters, my favorite red wary. I drink all time. So I am going to, I I messed up. I did the cork thing and I didn't put IT in far and enough. And I go to point, I actually this and the wine court breaks and there is two thirds of IT came off, one third is still in there.

And i'm trying to get the the teeth won't get IT, the teachers won't get IT and it's getting down, down, down and now is half way down the stem of the bottle on all crap. And so I go get A H crew driver, and i'm slowly but surely tapping IT, tapping IT, tapping IT. I'm trying to get, trying to push.

I can get and I pushed and I pushed and fun, and I give you a good hit, and there's pressure. So the thing just literally explodes out the tap wine everywhere, in my face, on my shirt, up on the cupboards, all over the wall. And i'm sure there's a way I can google this like, but someone has to have a good one of our listeners has to have a good way to get the cork out if he gets stuck there. What's the trick for hatrack?

I don't know. But one time in my waiting days, this this couple brought their own bottle and I was an expensive battle. And I I mess up the, I did what you did.

I was, I panicked. I remembered I was getting very slight. I was very nervous, was like, oh god, oh god, my god. I was like, guys, guys, I was like cork um I don't remember you know what I got good at as as a not just a waiter, but being in the service story for a long time. Catty combined aby valley Parker waiter, the list goes on a at smiling at people's .

bad jokes.

I was the bigger place today, the big today. And this is what I call a counter small talk. So the guy by the counter obvious, this persons a regular, goes, I doing everything good and they give us i'll .

sell for status crow.

I just like he is that's that's .

that's a cousin of living the dream.

Yeah right? yeah. There's there's a lot of a lot of people that like that like they can have those little things and it's just so uncomfortable like, uh yeah that but I ve going to back with people who say goodyer but don't hang up their .

phone who like like .

they just assume that you're going to hang up grand for people is guilty of that.

I'm pretty what that happened uni last week I think my phone is my pocket. I mair pods in. I looked back and there's like six minute nothing either was top. No, no, no stand.

No, no, no, no. I hang up, I present.

I know .

there's people out there like you who I no talents to, those certain people you Price buy, you hang out.

But if if the phone is in your bag or your pocket or something in your Carrying stuff, like sometimes it's hard to do. I guess could you say syria hang up for me something?

No, no. If your phone is, you said to the person, hey, bye, do you might hanging in up because my phones out of, out of rich, that's what you say. Because why would you just assume that the other person can hang up like you get this sponge, you know.

to stand off? I don't know. I find that I happen .

this if wherever on the phone and you don't need to ask ital, that's a thing I hang up.

I last week did did not happen. Duncan, ask who talks in the phone in twenty four. We're all we still talking of fun.

I talk to fun. Um i'm going to start with recommendations. K, um I saw up before you get to what I saw. So time cruise is running back at dis tho I got to tell you dsa thunders not to get move.

Yeah you're not na, you might be surprised about this. I'm not a fan of days of counter IT was just top gun on wheels and IT IT was okay then I wasn't like one of my favorite. It's wait on list of time .

creigh movies for me. Yes, I more. There was an article and sure. What about horr about Jason bloom and a over the past decade, the harm movie genre has doubled to ticket the box office. Now working about a billion doll and ticket cells each year.

the cape ratio of horror movies has to, like, thirty six right now.

I feel like that i'm shiny, but i'm winning right there, making movies for me.

yeah, all the time.

So bloom said, I think this a lot of truth. This, he said, hr is the one thing that doesn't work as well on streaming. If you're not force to sit in there. The harm movie it's never scare Harry gets people to the theory that makes sense to me that is .

just a Better experience of the there's with and it's also it's cheap like you don't .

need to pay actors like brand name actors to be in in the article they actually went to the psychology which I spoke about less like, what do I like this should so much I demanded um yes, I am so anyway, okay. I went to the theater this week and I saw what is probably my favorite movie of the year that I think should be named for best picture. The movie, the movie is a was, it's a neon movie, neon and long legs.

Neon is life and eight twenty four competitor. The movie called the ora and IT was amazing. I felt like .

uncut .

James a little bit. It's been described as an uncut James, which I thought about of the thing. I don't think about the other part, the pretty woman part, uncut James and pretty woman cross over. It's also somehow laughed out loud funny. So the premise of the story is um miche medicine who is in scream and what else was in she's been in I can only but also SHE on whatever SHE plays a stripper and a russian kid comes into the strip club and he starts paying her to be his irl friend to be an escort, his girlfriend and he's he's a son of a rush oligarch and so he's living in the life by himself in a mention and bricklin and she's his girlfriend and the russians come to to another marriage and IT was so good okay. I never heard of that.

I can't possibly raise .

of our high enough. Like then you would be disappoint.

Not a horr movie.

Not a harm movie. No.

O I D, i'm worried that my son is going to be fine down the Michael rab, ico movies as opposed the band, because he went as ghost face for halloing from from scream.

He hasn't seen screens, right?

You can show that now, but i'm going to eventually. He.

he loves that stuff. So what is what is right? So how will this George's.

i'm i'm more liberal about the movies in my wife sometimes like I don't. I think it's fine. Uh, you know, they said in intertangled, in intertanko book a gamer with exactly but his parents problem of me is very Young.

He seeing very es. And I think one of the time, C S. Parents, are you sure I should be watching new movies and they said, I would rather have you watch movies than the news and I think that because the movies aren't real, is what they said. So, yeah, but I do remember .

like seeing friday at a Young asia IT really rocked me like, I don't I don't have a good way. Like it's I remember being scared.

So I was very proud of my son of the day because I came over what action we were watching. But every action movie, like especially indian and Jones, you dive under the wall before IT comes down on you to crush you, or the door before he shuts every action. We has that scene where you dive under, you just made IT.

And we see a scene where these guys are running for something and he goes, they're gonna make IT. They always make IT in action movies. Oh my god, he take that out.

That's pretty good, man. Uh, right? I'm still watching disclaimer. I still think you should not watch, but we're on the we just want to pen ultimate second to .

last episode is such a very yes with .

kate bunch and it's it's a role coastal show in that is very frustrating and very annoying. But I really wanted know what IT happens. So I I like, I hate, I hate myself for watching IT half the time.

Times like this is actually pretty good, but I need to watch the end now because I got to see what what happens. There are some twist or something coming, right? We've been watching ninety movies of our kids with mister double far last week. I think we said league their own this week all the kids absolutely loved IT and my wife and I both said they really just don't make movies like this anymore no no feel good family movie but both people can like IT um gene Davis has been any all time under the list. SHE is just fantastic in that movie I kind looked IT up and I said when he hit her force SHE stoppin rules.

which I don't know why I think, well, you know the hollywood .

like her yeah but a megrin, an Julia abbots and able to sha lot of .

competition to member of the longest night I love .

that was similar. Jackson, I saw that one of the theater.

Okay, so I saw once I member seeing that my dad is my dad department, actually. And I haven't seen in twenty years. No time were all .

thirty years under the action movie really good.

I I just I .

don't this is not a hot take by any means because it's very well. People have IT like there's no Better actor in a decade than time hangs wasn't nineties. He is so unbelievable good. And the league of their own I almost like forget how good he was back the day.

Yeah, go alright.

Um twenty next week if road doesn't come to an end from the election. I told you i'm shorting wall. I, I, I hopefully I am wrong about that.

I'm hoping I, I, I was driving by a street corner of the day and a guy had a huge sign and all said was vote for decency. No, there was no names. There was not just vote for that's not that I can get behind.

Oh, that I hope people are decent to each other. Member, chicago, november thirteenth. If you're around, check out our live animal spirits, a advisor unlike to com from our financial adviser stuff.

thanks. The production team is always animal spirits. Part of, you know that IT no anal spirits at the compound news 点 com。

That's IT. goodbye.