How Democracies Fared Around The World In 2024
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2024 has been the year of elections, and not only in the U.S. Billions of people cast a ballot this year in every part of the world, including Taiwan in January, Pakistan in April, South Africa in May, and in France this past July. The new assembly is not...

The Economist estimates that a total of 76 countries were scheduled to have an election in 2024. Slightly more than half of those were expected to be free and fair elections. What were the results? What wins give a hint about the course of a country's politics? And what trends are sweeping multiple countries around the world? We get into it after the break. I'm Jen White. You're listening to the 1A Podcast, where we get to the heart of the story. We'll be back with more in just a moment. Stay with us.

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Every weekday, NPR's best political reporters come to you on the NPR Politics Podcast to explain the big news coming out of Washington, the campaign trail and beyond. We don't just want to tell you what happened. We tell you why it matters. Join the NPR Politics Podcast every single afternoon to understand the world through political eyes.

Joining us in studio is Enda Curran. He's a global economy reporter at Bloomberg News here in Washington, D.C. And it's great to have you back. Thank you, Jen, very much. And joining us from Abu Dhabi is Sadanan Dume. He's a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington. He's also a columnist for The Wall Street Journal. Sadanan, welcome back.

Great to be back. Well, let's start with India, the world's largest democracy in terms of eligible voters. Its election took place in seven stages this spring, ending in June. Enda, what happened in that election? Well, of all the elections around the world, this was meant to be the most straightforward. India's economy among the fastest growing. President Modi and the BJP, well ensconced, were expected to get a majority, increase their majority. In fact, they were expected to get a majority.

They suffered something of a backlash from the electorate. BJP and Modi did not get the majority they expected. They had to instead create a coalition government. And it was a lesson to the rest of the world that even when an election was expected to go the way it was, people on the ground were unhappy. They expressed their unhappiness, mostly economic issues, inflation and living costs. So, Asad Anand, what has Prime Minister Modi's party, the BJP, done to respond to its failure to win that parliamentary majority in this recent election?

Well, they're going a little bit more cautiously in terms of policy. So Enda's absolutely right. They were expected to win a comfortable majority. They were expected to come back with a larger majority.

And the general sense was that if they had done that, they were going to accelerate some economic reforms and basically just move much faster in terms of opening up the economy and so on. Instead, they've been cautious. They've very much pivoted to domestic election electoral politics rather than a reform agenda.

They've been busy fighting state elections and have done quite well. They've had to roll back an attempt to recruit people in government, outside experts, which shows something that Enda didn't mention, but which is another factor, another reason why Modi didn't do well.

was that he has to pay more attention to traditional caste politics, because one of the reasons many analysts think he did poorly was that the opposition party brought up some of the caste disparities in India quite successfully. Now, Modi is currently 74 years old. He's serving his third term. He would be 79 in 2029. That's when the next election is expected to take place. Sadanen, what's next for India's political scene after this latest election?

You know, I think we're looking at, you know, those of us who follow Indian politics closely are beginning to ask the question, which has been unaskable for the last 10 years, which is what does India and the BJP look like after Modi? Will he be the person who leads the party into an election again? I would argue that he's still by and large, he's by far the most popular BJP politician ever.

He dwarfs all other leaders in the party, but it's not clear whether at that age, at 79, he's going to lead the party for a fourth possible term. I would bet against it personally. Well, India is a significant middle power on the world stage. It has not participated in the West's economic and political isolation of Russia in its war with Ukraine. It continues to buy oil from Russia and engage with President Vladimir Putin. I'm curious here from both of you, what you see as India's role in foreign affairs over the next few years,

especially as President-elect Trump takes office in January here in the U.S. I think it's a very critical and important, what you might call a swing state. It's one of the leading nations of what's now being called the global south that's emerging. It's clearly messaging, it's willing to do business with both sides of the global divide, so to speak. It also has been attracting a lot of foreign investment. It's been seen as a kind of a strategic alternative to China to set up as a manufacturing base. So there is a lot of

you know, potential there and it's potentially a big role for China, both in terms of geoeconomics and in terms of just strategic footprint. But at the same time, I think also a lot of uncertainty is how India plays its hand over the coming years. And I think when President Trump comes in, it will be a test, I think, for that US-India dynamic that President Biden had been working on improving during his administration. Sadan, and your thoughts?

Yeah. So, you know, one way to think about this is that, you know, 10, 10 years ago in 2014, India was the 10th largest economy in the world right now. It's the fifth largest economy. And in a couple of years, it's going to be the third largest economy in the world. So obviously this is a country that matters more than before and matters more to the U S than before. There's also the India, China angle, uh, India and China have had a fraught relationship. Uh,

I wrote a column about this in the Wall Street Journal recently. I think they're, in fact, cautiously optimistic about Trump 2.0. And one of the reasons is that India is not a traditional U.S. ally. So there isn't, you know, India does not look to the U.S. for defense, for example. I mean, it buys American weapons, but it doesn't sort of, it doesn't lean on the U.S. the way some of the more traditional allies in Europe do.

And they feel that they did pretty well with Trump last time. It was a transactional relationship. And they feel that they know how to deal with him. And they are fairly confident that the relationship is going to continue to do well. Now, neighboring Pakistan also had an election this spring, but it was a bit of a surprise. Independent candidates who were aligned with former prime minister Imran Khan won enough seats to deny any one party a majority in parliament. Sadanan, briefly talk us through what happened in that election. Well,

Well, sadly, Jen, that election was a complete and total farce. So what basically think of it as a boxing match where the Pakistan army fought Imran Khan. Imran Khan had one hand tied behind his back and he still prevailed.

But then effectively, they rigged the election and they did not allow him to form a government. So the PTI was not allowed to, first of all, contest as one party. So they ran a series of independents and then they, you know, use this very ingenious WhatsApp method to inform voters who their candidates were, even though their candidates had to fight with different symbols in every constituency, which is a very, very big handicap in a

in a country like Pakistan. Khan himself was in jail, was not allowed to campaign. The party did well, but in the end, what many people believe, including me, is that the election was stolen from them. Early on, television results showed the PTI, Imran Khan's party, leading in 127 out of 266 seats. They ended up with just 93 votes.

a coalition government has been formed of two parties that did worse than the PTI. And basically the takeaway from that is that the army is as powerful as it has been in several years and

And is totally in command of Pakistan, even though notionally Pakistan has a civilian government headed by Shabazz Sharif. So, Saran, what do you see as the defining question for Pakistan in the years to come? The question is, is it going to be a democracy?

And there are no good answers because on the one hand, it's very clear that Imran Khan is the most popular politician in the country. On the other hand, it's also clear that Imran Khan, when he was prime minister between 2018 and 2022, did not do a very good job.

So the question that the army faces is, can they afford to have Imran Khan come back because they see him as a destabilizing force? But on the other hand, if you keep him out, you're basically denying the people their right to choose their own leader.

Well, Indonesia had an election in February where at least on its face, the party in power shifted. Sadanan, who won there? And give us some context behind that win. The person who won was a person who's been trying to win Indonesian elections for a long, long time. His name is Prabowo Subianto.

He used to be a general in the army, a very controversial general, in fact. And he was the son-in-law of the former dictator, Suharto, who ruled the country between 1966 and 1998.

Subianto, Prabowo had been, as he's known, had been trying to win power for a long time, had not been able to do it. This time he did it in part because the outgoing president, Joe Coe, who was popular but was term-limited, gave him his blessings, and Prabowo...

This could only happen in Indonesia, chose the outgoing president's son as his vice presidential nominee. So in many ways, you know, it's a change to the extent that, you know, it's a new party, but it's at the same time there's a great deal of continuity. You've seen in Indonesia as a kind of, you know, the way their democracy is evolving is that there's a kind of coalition of elites and they kind of, you know, maintain a certain amount of stability.

The main takeaway about Prabowo is that he's probably going to follow a more assertively independent Indonesian foreign policy. But beyond that, I don't expect him to rock the boat particularly. Well, I know we're going to have to let you go, Saranan, but I'm curious to hear as you look at the results of elections globally, whether you're watching any particular trends.

Well, I think what you're seeing in many countries is that people are upset with their governments, right? Even in India, that's sort of the big example, where if you look on the surface, Modi had a popularity rating of 74%. But if you look in country after country, people are upset. They want new governments. They want change. They want their lives to improve faster. And I think that's a trend that we're going to continue to see, not just in developing in Asia, but across the world.

That's Sadanan Dume. He's a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. He's also a columnist for The Wall Street Journal. He joined us from Abu Dhabi. Sadanan, thanks for speaking with us. Thank you. We'll continue our trip around the world's democracies after this short break. Stay with us.

I'm Lakshmi Singh. Public radio reminds us of our shared humanity, even at our darkest hours, like with a story of an artist couple who make beautiful spaces for communities to grieve. We found that people will usually stop by and just feel a little bit more open and willing to talk and share. Help us make room for light in the dark. Give before the end of the year at donate.npr.org. I'm Jesse Thorne. 2024 is almost over, but

But before it's gone, come laugh with us at the best stand-up comedy of the year on Bullseye. We'll hear from Tig Notaro, Kyle Kinane, Kimberly Clark, Laurie Kilmartin, and many, many more. You might even hear your next favorite stand-up. That's on Bullseye for MaximumFun.org and NPR. What's good, y'all? It's Gene Demby from Code Switch. And on Code Switch, we are deeply curious about race and identity and the way it shows up in the news headlines or in our personal lives.

With a wide range of voices in front of and behind the mic, we see how race shows up all over the place. So come rock with us on the Code Switch podcast, only from NPR. Now let's bring in another voice. In studio now is Stephanie Bolzin. She's North America editor at Welt, the German news outlet. Stephanie, welcome back. Hello. Thank you for having me. Stephanie, let's start with France, which had elections this year. It's been in the news quite a bit in the past week. Just walk us through what's happened recently with France's government.

Well, it all started back in June when we had European election, which usually is not such a big political event. It's important. It's about the European Parliament, which, of course, is a legislator for all the European things that are happening. But what happened then was the right-wing party, the RN, had an amazing landslide victory in that European election. And the same night, it was a real shock. The president, Emmanuel Macron, called for a snap election. And why did he do that?

Because he thought, I mean, he took a big risk. He thought he was convinced that the French would support him, that in the end the French would not give a majority to the right-wing party. So he called that snap election. And what then happened was, of course, that not the center was supported.

But the outcome was actually that both the left and the right extremist party were strengthened. And the result is that Macron now, I think in 12 months, they now try to have the second government and the fourth prime minister elected.

Macron is squeezed in the middle and France is in a very, very unstable situation and therefore the whole of Europe is in an unstable situation because France is a very important country in the European Union. And when you saw those snap election results...

What was your initial reaction? Policy paralysis, another threat to Europe at a time when the economy there is already struggling. The European Union is under pressure domestically from opposition to immigration, slowing economic growth, high inflation, and of course the war in Ukraine. And now you compound all of that with this potential for paralysis in Paris and Germany, which I'm sure Stephanie will explain in terms of what's happening in the political system there.

Mario Draghi came out with a report recently saying what the EU needs to do to rev up its animal spirits and get back on its feet. It's hard to see how, you know, those kind of structural reforms, those kind of painful changes are needed, will ever be passed or put through when you have the big blocks

fighting among themselves and as fractured among themselves as they are. And I think that's the big takeaway from what's going on in France and Germany. We'll talk a little bit about Germany, but first I want to note a country with an upcoming election that's now on hold is Romania. A constitutional court in the country cancelled the second round of their presidential election due to a suspected online influence campaign involving thousands of TikTok users.

accounts. Romanian intelligence alleges Russia is involved in that effort. And Stephanie, you've also been watching Slovakia's election. Tell us what's happening there.

Slovakia is a small country, of course, in Europe, but it's quite telling what is happening there for a number of years. It was a very pro-European country, moderate politics, and it actually went back to elect Robert Fico, which I thought was a person really of the past, of the very beginning when Slovakia came out after communist time. He's back in power now. He's very pro-Russian. He's increasingly authoritarian now.

And it's interesting, if you talk about the European Union, you have France and Germany, but then you have also a bloc that's very important, which is called the Visegrad countries. That was initiated years ago by Poland, and they got four countries together, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. And they can also make a difference in the European Union. You know, we always form blocs to get votes together.

And Poland was very much conservative, went more liberal recently, but now Slovakia has gone back very much to the right. So you have in Europe this constant back and forth between the extremes. And that, of course, makes consensus in Brussels and in Strasbourg where the parliament sits very, very, very difficult. When you consider the EU parliament election results and –

national election results in countries like Slovakia. What does it say to you about the political forces rising in Europe? You can see in the European Parliament that the fringes are strengthened as much on the left as they are on the right. I must say, though, that looking at the outcome of the European election, they have managed to again form a center-right, center-left with a lot of maneuvering. I mean, Brussels is the complete, we call it a bazaar.

And there are some shrewd people who have still formed a bloc that is enough to form a majority to get legislation through.

But the thing is, with the next election, it will fraction even more and even more. And it will become increasingly difficult to find consensus in the European Union. And I'd love your thoughts as well. I would agree with Stephanie. Actually, important to say that the centre did just about hold on in the European Parliament. But nonetheless, I think it has exposed a lot of the old complaints about the EU. Weak leadership, lacking in direction, too much bureaucracy, lack of...

when it comes to dealing with the big structural issues that need to be fixed, like some of those identified in the recent Draghi report. You see now they're arguing over whether or not they can borrow jointly to fund a defence programme. And there's no real coherent approach when it comes to China.

for example. So I think it just exposes a lot of the underlying tensions within the European Union. It's clearly going through a very tense period right now. Well, and Stephanie, I wonder whether you're also seeing a rise in Euroscepticism, more countries or political parties within those countries questioning the viability of the European Union. Yeah, but this has been going on for a very long time. I just think it has become more intense because of migration issues

And because of migration issues and because of the complicated, the so-called Dublin system, which means actually asylum seekers coming in always have to be dealt with in the countries where they arrive first, which of course is then countries such as Greece or Italy or Spain. They then said this is unfair. They tried to find a compromise this year. After, I think, 10 years of negotiations, they have a new asylum pact.

It doesn't really work because we have this Schengen system, which means we have no borders. And there is now an increasingly, they call it the...

securing the external borders of Europe with the Frontex agency. So there is more crackdown on smugglers. There is more difficult to come into Europe. Of course, there's a very important agreement with Turkey to take refugees back. But there is a very strong feeling. I mean, I can mainly talk, of course, of German citizens who say we've been living here all our lives. We've been paying into the social security systems.

In quotation marks, all these people are coming in. They're never paid into the system. They're getting the same money as us. Why is that? And so there's a very discontent, a growing discontent with the idea of European Union of open borders. But then don't forget the open borders make it a single market. And if the borders are closed, the single market doesn't work.

So it's a very fine balance to keep. And yeah, but it's, I mean, as in your country, this is the big challenge of the day, migration. And yet there are coalitions forming. So where are these parties that perhaps have disparate interests or disparate concerns finding allies?

shared agreement that they can come together on and try to get legislation passed through. Enda? Well, at the European Union Parliament level, there is that centrist bloc, which does have its own agenda for the EU. But I think the difference is really...

between the EU Parliament level and at the national sovereign level, where they have their own competencies. That's where you're seeing very different views emerging on what direction the EU should be taking, where the bloc should be going in terms of foreign policy, how it should be dealing with Russia, how it should be dealing with China, how it should be dealing with immigration. So, you know, it's one thing for the EU at the Commission level to be preaching one message, but I think a lot of the fragmentation is happening at the national level, and that's where the real differences are at the moment. Stephanie, what are you hearing from EU officials about how they're preparing for the incoming Trump administration? Well,

I had a very interesting conversation last week actually in Washington by someone quite high ranking in the European Union. And he was incredibly defiant. And I think it's fair to say that the European Commission, as much as the parliament, they are far more prepared for the second Trump presidency. I mean, in 2016...

It was a shock. There was a lot of surprise. No one did expect Donald Trump to take the measures he did, whether it was on steel, on tariffs, all these things. This time around, they say, we got our tariffs ready.

We are the most important market for the United States. If Donald Trump wants to go down the path of a trade war, we are prepared and we are strong. And it will also cost the United States and the United States citizens. It will be more costly for them to pay for goods they import for Europe.

The one thing, of course, where Europe is incredibly weak is Ukraine, because without the United States, the European nations are not ready to help Ukraine. And they are defenseless also if there was a serious risk from Russia. So there is a balance here.

But nobody knows how it's going to play out. We're waiting what's going to happen after January 20. Yeah, I totally agree with Stephanie. I would say on the defence spending side of things, I think European governments, several of them are already increasing their defence spending. But again, there isn't yet that sort of coherent message on what they're willing to do in terms of both European defence and what they're willing to do when it comes to Ukraine. And I think on the trade side, I'd also agree with Stephanie, there is a view this time around, you know what, we've seen this rodeo, he's going to put up tariffs, it's

going to be leverage, it's going to be negotiation, then we'll come to an agreement. There's less of an element of shock this time around, I think. And I'd love to hear from both of you the other top issues. I think

the EU Commission and other institutions will have to address in the next year, Enda? I think it has to be economic growth, living costs, the effectiveness of the EU in terms of delivering what it's meant to be delivering. Like I said earlier, there's a feeling of bureaucracy and inertia. The EU is drifting. It's not delivering for the people on the ground. And Germany is case in point. What's happening in their economy right now, I think, is worrying a lot of people in terms of the broader impact on the EU. So I would say economic growth and living costs have to be number one.

I think the big difference is the Ursula von der Leyen Commission President's first term was a lot about green economy, green technology, fight against climate change. I wouldn't say it's gone, but this is really, that was last time. This time around, it's all about being competitive. How to make Europe more competitive and to withstand climate change.

tensions with China, with the US be more independent, but at the same time, of course, forming alliances. So like, for example, a really important thing last Friday, they're about to now sign this Mercosur agreement. So a trade room between the European Union and Latin America, which has been in the pipeline for what, 30 years? And it's finally happening. And that's another reason why in Europe they're quite defiant. Yeah.

It is finally happening if it's ratified, though. This is going to be the big question when it comes to that. And this is my point about national level politics versus the EU. When this goes to the parliament, and in particular France, there's already a lot of opposition. That's a great trade deal on paper, but it will be a real test for attitudes within the EU whether or not they approve it. We're speaking with Enda Curran. He's a global economy reporter at Bloomberg News and Stephanie Bolzin, North America editor for VALT. I'm Jen White. You're listening to 1A.

We've been speaking about Germany, the biggest economic power in the European Union. It had a snap parliamentary election, or it has one coming up in early 2025. Stephanie, why is Germany going to the polls early? Well, first of all, I think it's important to say that this is not normal, because I

In my life, and I'm not the youngest, I had two chancellors. I had Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel. So until 2021, basically we had two chancellors. And now for the first time in 20 years, we have snap elections. So just to understand the psychological effect, what that means to Germany. This was a coalition of social democrats, greens and liberals. So ideologically, they were very, very much opposed to

A lot of things. I mean, the pressure from the war in Ukraine and rising energy costs, the question of migration. And then basically the liberals were losing so many votes. They had to kind of challenge the chancellor and say, either you go down with us and do a new economic policy or we out.

And basically, Scholz came out and said, well, then you're out. And then the new election is on February 23rd. And it's, I mean, we should be careful with polls, as we know. But it looks like that the next chancellor will be again from the Christian Democrats, which is Angela Merkel's party, a guy called Friedrich Merz. And it will be probably he might be able to form a coalition with the Greens, which

which would be the traditional classical two-party coalition, which we are more used to. We are not used to a three-party coalition, which of course ideologically and policy-wise is always more difficult. But I think, to be fair, if you compare it to France, I think France is in far more turmoil, especially looking already at 2027 when everybody expects that not

Not someone like Emmanuel Macron, someone moderate will win, but maybe Marine Le Pen. Germany will be more stable again, but the economic data is bad and politically Germany is going through a rough time. Well, it makes me wonder, you said this is not normal. These snap elections are not normal. And so what effect does that have on Germans in their thinking about the stability of their country and their government?

Well, you can see like everywhere else in the world, also in the US or wherever in Europe, it's a more fractioning society. It has been fractured through this big challenge of migration since 2015 when Germany took in more than a million refugees. Germany also took more than a million refugees in from Ukraine now. This is a big challenge to society, whether it's schools or housing or health issues.

provisions and at the same time the war in Ukraine there is still support of course to help Ukraine and to make Ukraine

be strong once they go into a negotiation but there's also the expectation that 2025 will bring an end to the war and of course energy prices and the energy prices have hit german industry you know we are manufacturing as a lot of people um or companies that need to make people redundant for example volkswagen and german economy is struggling like never before and there is a

if I speak with my friends and family back home, everybody's tired and they need something new and reforms, but then reforms, everybody's having a hard time, right? When you mention the war in Ukraine, President-elect Donald Trump has signaled he's not willing to provide the same level of military or financial support as President Biden. So when you look out to 2025 and look

longer term, how consequential will the Russia-Ukraine war be for EU politics in the coming year? Well, it's very consequential because, as Stephanie was just saying, look, if you have France and Germany as internally divided as they are, you have to question what kind of coherent policy and approach will come out of the EU towards, we'll say, Russia and China. We don't yet know what President Trump will do with Ukraine exactly, but if there is going to be some kind of negotiation or deal on the table, the EU are going to have to have a say in it, and it

It may not be very comfortable for them, whatever the end outcome is. And they're going to have to ask themselves, ultimately, have they done enough to shore up their own defences? Have they done enough to shore up Ukraine? There are very difficult, I think, fundamental questions for the EU coming on the defence side of things, both in terms of what they have to spend and commit. And then what kind of agreement will they be ultimately willing to accept, given Russia's on their doorstep? Stephanie, anything to add there?

I think what is, I mean, again, as Enda says, we don't know exactly what or we don't know at all what Donald Trump is going to say. But there are some plans, for example, let's talk about a European stability force. So European peace forces going into Ukraine. And I think it was telling that Emmanuel Macron invited Donald Trump to the opening of the Notre Dame last Sunday.

or Saturday on the weekend. And they talked about Ukraine there. And Emmanuel Macron is up for that idea of a stability force. But then Germany, as far as I know, is not. So again, it's going to be interesting times. Lots to watch in 2025. That's Stephanie Bolzin. She's North America editor at Welt, the English language German news service. Stephanie, always great to hear your insights. We'll be back with more of the conversation in just a moment.

Up next, multiple countries on the African continent held elections that saw upsets for incumbents. We get into why in just a moment.

Hey, it's Peter Sagal, the host of Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me. Now, if you like Wait, Wait, and you're looking for another podcast where the hosts take self-deprecating jabs at themselves and invite important guests on who have no business being there, then you should check out NPR's How to Do Everything. It's hosted by two of the minds behind Wait, Wait, who literally sometimes put words in my mouth. Find the How to Do Everything podcast wherever you are currently listening to me go on about it.

Let's get back to the state of democracies around the world and add another voice. Alexis Akwajiram is managing editor of Semaphore Africa. He joins us now from London. Alexis, welcome back to the program. Hello. Thanks for having me. Alexis, South Africa held elections this June. It's one of the continent's largest and most developed economies. The African National Congress, or ANC, party has ruled the country since 1994. That's when former President Nelson Mandela was elected. What happened in this year's elections with the governing ANC?

So in this year's election, the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid. So it had to enter into a coalition for the first time. And that's been led by Cyril Ramaphosa, the president, which meant that they had to...

Forms coalition with a number of different parties, in particular the Democratic Alliance, which is the main opposition party and is widely perceived to be pro-business and more conservative than the ANC. So how has that coalition functioned? So it's actually gone surprisingly well. The reaction's been positive. It's been welcomed by financial markets and investors, mainly because of that perception that the DA is...

pro-business. I think there's a lot of relief that the ANC decided to form a coalition with them and not with the EFF and MK, which are far-left parties which wanted a much broader redistribution of wealth. And we're talking about things like renationalising the central bank and grabbing land as well. So it's gone well. It's gone well. I mean, I think it actually suits...

both parties. It suits the ANC because they can say that they're being humble and listening to the electorate. And it suits the Democratic Alliance because this is their opportunity to be in government for the first time since the end of apartheid, or the end of apartheid. So that coalition has been in place for about six months. What will you be watching moving forward? Well,

Well, moving forward, whether this actually holds and whether they can get over their ideological differences, because there is a lot of blue water between those two parties in particular. I should mention that the Democratic Alliance is a majority white party. So obviously, given South Africa's history of race relations, it's...

there are issues in which it could be tense. So seeing whether they can get through that and also seeing if they can attract investment and really work on the problems that South Africa has had systemically in the last few years. They've had problems with rolling blackouts, known as load shedding. The country hasn't really met its potential. And this is a real opportunity for it to do so and maybe get rid of some of the endemic corruption that's held the country back. So that would be interesting to watch.

Well, let's move now to Senegal in West Africa. They held elections for their president, and the winner was a surprise. Who won that race?

So that race was run by Basu Jumai Fai, who is at 44 Africa's youngest elected president. Now, he represents a far-left party called PASDEF, and it was a fascinating contest because he had been in prison for 11 months and was released 10 days before the election, and he won. And it was a real, I mean, it was a surprise mainly because

His predecessor, Mackie Sall, had delayed the election. It was clear that he was trying to find a way for his preferred candidate, the then Prime Minister, to hold on and maybe win the election. And actually, they didn't use the levers of power. They had to respect what the Constitutional Court said and go ahead with the election. And Fai was released from prison and won. So that was very, very interesting what happened in Senegal. What platform did Fai run on?

So, I mean, his party, PASDEF, is a left-wing populist party. The platform is, they said they're going to redistribute wealth, they're going to create a national currency. So by that, what they mean is many of the countries, Francophone West African countries in Central Africa, have a currency called the Sifo Franc, and that is pegged to the euro. And that is part of the ongoing influence that France has over its former colonies.

So he said, look, we're going to work for our new national currency. We're going to make sure that more people reap the rewards of the natural resources in Senegal through renegotiating oil and gas contracts and also just in general reducing the influence of France in the country. So that's a massive rupture from what we've seen before because before, Senegal had been a loyal partner to France. French companies had business interests there and have done for a long time. And now,

He said, we're going to change that and make sure that Senegalese people actually benefit from the country's wealth. Now, Botswana is another large economy in Southern Africa whose election results saw the long-term party in power displaced. In November, the opposition party umbrella for democratic change, or UDC, and its presidential candidate, Douma Boko, won against the incumbent Botswana Democratic Party. Now, the BDP has ruled the country since independence in the 1960s, and it was a peaceful transition. Alexis, what's your take on this?

What were the reasons for that win by the opposition? Well, I mean, a lot of it was the youth vote. I mean, youth unemployment in Botswana was running at 45% as compared with overall unemployment of 27%. So there's high youth unemployment, and he said that he was going to double the monthly minimum wage, which is probably raising it to around $300. It's going to tackle unemployment through job creation, increase the stipend for those in tertiary education, and then as well as that, just increase

retool the economy to move away from its dependence on diamond sales as well. So you can see most of those policies are aimed towards that youth vote and energising young people in the country. And it's worth bearing in mind that the median age in Botswana is around 23, which in sub-Saharan African terms is actually quite old. Usually it's around 19, but still very, very young. So that's what he was appealing to, basically. That was the foundation of his policy framework.

That's Alexis Akwajiram. He's managing editor of Semaphore Africa. Alexis, thanks for speaking with us.

So what has President-elect Trump said about the U.S.'s economic or diplomatic relations with countries in sub-Saharan Africa under his incoming administration? Well, I think there's a view that the U.S. has lost influence in Africa generally, especially to China over the years. We saw it in President Biden's recent visit to Angola and the unveiling of that high-speed rail investment by the U.S. I think that's kind of a

of that theme is what you might expect given the potential Africa has in terms of the minerals and resources and the youth population there. However, there will be sources of tension. Take, for example, South Africa's role in the BRICS

I mean, are you with us or against us is often the kind of mantra from the Trump administration. In particular, there's maybe tension over currency usage there. President Trump has said if the BRICS go off and use their own currencies or other nations use their own currencies and not the dollar to settle trade, he will put tariffs on them. So, you know, you can imagine how on the one side of this, the US would certainly like to court these nations and try and win back some influence there. But there's also points of tension given how...

the inroads that China has made and the view that some of these countries want to diversify away from the US dollar because of its role in sanctions and because of the high interest rates linked to the Federal Reserve and everything else. So I think there's definitely potential for tension when it comes to currencies.

Let's make a quick stop in Taiwan. And they elected a new president at the start of this year. And the outcome was somewhat expected as the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, faced a split opposition. Tell us about the new president and the platform. So, Vice President Lai, that was really a policy continuity, Jen. And

you know, there's the domestic story, but a really important story is what would his language be and signaling be on Taiwan status? And would he be declaring, for example, independence and like no change of tone or language? They're very much steady signaling. We're willing to, you know, try and maintain relations with Beijing. So it's kind of as you were on paper.

and the real reason he got elected was because the opposition couldn't agree among themselves. Lai only got 40-odd percent of the vote. Had the opposition been able to come together like a pro-Beijing opposition, then it might have been a different story there. But despite the continuity messaging from Taiwan, actually China has been ratcheting up both its rhetoric and its...

and its military exercises around Taiwan. And that has surprised analysts and observers because it's not like the messaging from Taiwan has changed per se. And we've seen again recently, President Xi, when he met President Biden at APEC, listing those four red lines that he has. And one of those red lines is Taiwan, that you just don't meddle or come near us when it comes to the issue of Taiwan. And of course, Taiwan...

Taiwan experts would say haven't necessarily stoked or haven't necessarily ramped up their own rhetoric on this issue. So it's been noteworthy that Sean is really doubling down on that signal. And that's going to be a very tricky talking point between the new administration, President Trump and Xi Jinping when they get to that point of it. And just pull that thread a little bit for us.

Yeah, so the President Trump China story is going to be very, very interesting indeed. On the one hand, of course, we know President Trump's a hawk on China, a hawk when it comes to China's trading and competitive edge against the U.S., its economic advantages against the U.S. There's that side of it where he's threatened tariffs, and he wants to bring production out of China back to the U.S. So you've got the economic story, but then you have the security story,

And that's where you have not just what is China's ambitions for Taiwan, what is China's role in aiding Russia with Ukraine, what stance will President Trump take there, for example, where else in the national security sphere will President Trump seek to double down or take on China in the way that the current Biden administration has been, especially in technology, for example. So...

Lots of areas of tension there, but Taiwan is obviously the red hot issue when it comes to it. And then, of course, you have to step back and ask, well, wait a minute, where is there room for agreement when it comes to the US and China? Where will there be negotiations and deals? Remember, President Trump signed a phase one trade deal when he was in office a few years ago. There's a view that there will be a lot of rhetoric, but ultimately China and the US will sit down and come to an agreement, at least on the economic side. But I think on the security side and on the national security side and the Taiwanese question, I think that's much more open-ended.

So we have other countries due to have elections in 2025. What countries specifically are you watching? I think you'd have to keep an eye on Germany, like Germany, as Stephanie just said, because it's so important to see how the far right comes in terms of that vote. And even though smaller countries in the EU, of course, they have a say, the big countries set the tone in the messaging. Germany's economy is really in a difficult space right now. So see what government comes out of that, which way do the people go, and that's so critical, not just for Germany, but Germany in terms of EU policy towards Russia, Ukraine,

Ukraine, China and the rest of the world. And then I'd say just in terms of other advanced democracies, Canada, Prime Minister Trudeau seems to become very unpopular there up against a populist opponent that will be interesting to see. And keep an eye on Australia also.

That's Enda Curran. He's a global economy reporter for Bloomberg News in Washington, D.C. Enda, thanks for being our guide today. Thank you very much, Jen. Today's producer was Michael Folero. This program comes to you from WAMU, part of American University in Washington, distributed by NPR. I'm Jen White. Thanks for listening. And we'll talk again tomorrow. This is 1A.

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