Why Trump's Team Is Sweating About First-Time Female Voters in Pennsylvania
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Hi, I'm Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent, and this is Somebody's Gotta Win. On this show, I have been keeping you up to date on the shifting moods within Mar-a-Lago with all of my latest campaign reporting, as I've been primarily on the Trump beat since I'm plugged in there after covering him as a White House correspondent for ABC News and Politico. And as I mentioned last week, their mood was one of mine.

Bravado, euphoria. They were just reeling in all the early polling data that looked particularly good for them in the Sun Belt, in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. But it was still too soon to tell about Pennsylvania, the state that they've been banking on all along to deliver their victory since it offers 19 elect rural college votes. Well, I can

tell you that as the returns roll in and it shows women outvoting men in Pennsylvania by 13 points so far, their mood has shifted from euphoric to anxious, which is likely why you're hearing so many allegations of voter fraud in Pennsylvania from both Trump and Vance. They are sowing the seeds of doubt for whatever comes up next.

on election night. So it can't be looking good for them. And I understand why they probably aren't feeling that great. They shouldn't like seeing an influx of new female voters who will likely break for Harris. And they're streaming in, outpacing first-time male voters nearly two times. And some thinking that that surge last week was probably a little too premature.

It also has Charlie Kirk from Turning Points shouting from the rooftop or tweeting, and I quote, "'Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It's that simple. If you want a vision of the future, if you don't vote, imagine Kamala's voice cackling forever.'"

Men need to go vote now. Now, a campaign source told me they are actually losing it over this, which might explain why they're upping the ante and talking about criminal referrals for election poll workers who they think are suppressing the vote, like I reported yesterday at Puck.News. Don't forget that you can sign up for a subscription at Puck for all of my reporting by going to Puck.News slash Tara Palmieri. And you can use my discount code, uppercase T-A-R-A 20 for 20% off a subscription at Puck.

So on this episode, we're going to dive into this first time voting bloc, these young people, where the gender divide seems to be the most pronounced, the battle of the sexes, guys versus girls. For so long, political scientists and political strategists have discounted these younger first time voters, low propensity voters, thinking they just won't show up.

It looks different this time. A lot of them are women and they're coming out in masks. So my next guest, journalist Rachel Gianfazza, has been on the road talking to these young voters, particularly focusing on the gender divide and what's driving them to the polls.

Rachel, thanks so much for coming on the show. You've been really busy this election season, listening to young voters, holding these listening sessions in the battleground states to hear what's on their mind, what's driving them to vote. What are they saying? Thanks so much for having me, Tara. So overall, I'm both hearing excitement about the election from young voters, but I'm also hearing a lot of frustration and skepticism around the political process in general.

There has been high youth voter turnout the past three election cycles, but I think with the chaos that has...

surrounded this cycle in particular, there's just a lot of skepticism. About the candidates or about the system in general, like the trust in the process and the ability to tabulate? What are you hearing? It's both. I think it is both the system. I hear a lot of complaints about the electoral college, even in outground states, which is something that has been surprising to me. We're

You know, you typically hear skepticism of the Electoral College from, let's say, a young person in a blue state who feels like their vote won't matter because it's going to go a certain way or the same thing in a red state. But I was on a call with young people in Michigan last week and they even expressed disdain for the Electoral College. I'm guessing they were Democrats. We actually that conversation was nonpartisan, so it didn't focus on the which way they leaned.

I honestly don't have an answer for you on that, but that would surprise me because there, you don't know, it could go either way. And you have a lot of power. If you're in a swing state, their vote counts probably more so than others. Right. And yet they don't always feel that way. And oftentimes they feel like even if they did, let's say they are a Democrat. I've heard young people who are Democrats who voted for Biden in 2020, but feel like their life is pretty much the same or worse than it was prior to

Prior to that, and so they just feel frustrated with the system writ large. But then when it comes to the candidates in particular, you know, young voters, if you're a member of Gen Z, you've only ever been able to vote in a presidential election where Donald Trump was on the ballot. And that has both shaped young people's political consciousness and their entire perception of what politics is. But it also has caused a lot of frustration for young people who feel like the candidates are

don't represent them and their values. Though I hear that from, you know, from people across the political spectrum. And there are certainly a number of young people on the left side of the spectrum who don't feel that the Democratic candidates reflect them and their values either. So you're hearing a lot of double haters from the young ones.

Does that mean they're not going to go out and vote? It's definitely improved since I would say since Biden dropped out of the race and Harris took over at the top of the ticket. And in those initial first weeks, there was a ton of excitement, especially from young women around the vice president. But I think that excitement has subsided significantly.

As they've gone back to campus, as life has picked up this fall, not all young voters are students, but a portion of them are. And I don't want to make any predictions about whether or not there'll be high youth voter turnout. I think young people are not disillusioned. They are disaffected. And I think there's a distinction there. It's not that they're feeling like they don't want to be a part of politics at all, but they definitely feel like the system isn't working for them.

Yeah, as my colleague Peter Hamby said, Bratt's summer is over. The intensity, it seems to have waned. Does that mean that...

that you don't think they're going to go out and vote because historically young voters have been unreliable and the Democrats seem to be relying on them a lot. And so do the Republicans. Trump is hoping these young bros will come out and vote for him in record numbers, just kind of feeding them a sort of low calorie message about masculinity right through these podcasts. Do you think that these bros are

are really going to go out and vote for Trump? And like, do you think these women are going to go out and vote for Harris with a lot of intensity? Or is this just like an idea that,

they think about but aren't actually going to be driven to the polls, Jack? I mean, are they even registered when you talk to them? That's another thing I was wondering. Yeah, well, a lot of them are registered. That doesn't necessarily mean that they'll actually show up on election day or vote early or vote at all. That said, the gender divide is real, and I'll get into that in a minute, but...

When it comes to, you know, turnout in general, I think that voting is a habit. And so there has been high youth voter turnout over the past three election cycles, which means that for the sort of older cohort of young voters, they have practice with voting. There have been issues on the ballot that they care about, whether it is.

abortion or the economy. I think these are both two issues that are deeply important to young voters. And, you know, young voters may feel differently about those issues in particular, but these are motivating issues. And when I talk to young people, I'm hearing a sense of frustration with the status quo and therefore a sense of wanting to make their voice heard. And that's across the political spectrum. And when you talk to some of these more

young men who actually are pretty excited about voting for Trump, they're excited about doing so. When I was at the, you know, in Milwaukee this summer around the RNC, I heard massive excitement from young Republicans

And even some independents or moderate voters who were there. And then similarly at the DNC, there was so much excitement from young people who were there. But don't you think the people that go to these conventions are just excited in general? A normal person doesn't go to a convention for a party. Yeah, no, I was going to I was going to caveat immediately after that. And you're totally right in that, of course, these are a specific convention.

a specific breed of people and political nerds and not emblematic of the average young voter yet. I still think that...

Both candidates are firing up respective bases. And when I think about who could make a difference in terms of young voters this election cycle, I really do believe it's young men in particular, because as you said, Democrats have historically relied on young people to be a part of their winning coalition. And with the polls as close as they are, and if the margin of victory is going to be as slim as people think it is, then...

hypothetically, Harris would need everyone in her cohort possible to vote for her. And if a fraction of young people, young men in particular, are shifting towards Trump, that could spell trouble for the Harris campaign. And I am seeing the gender divide to get back to that question. I wrote a piece for the Free Press last week, and I've been just having conversations with young men in particular about their feelings about the election and

I am hearing excitement about Trump. I do think that his podcast tour is making a difference because it shows a side of him that is really relatable. Like when he goes on the Barstool Bustin' with the Boys podcast and talks about sports, he's not talking about politics. He's not giving his campaign talking points. He's just talking about something that matters to the viewer of this specific podcast. And they see him in a different light. So I think...

it's really smart that both candidates are going on these respective podcasts, but it's clear that they recognize that this is where young people are getting their entertainment news and information. And, you know,

The thing about what the Trump campaign is doing in particular is that they're really tapping into this sort of anti-political correctness or anti-wokeness that young men on college campuses in particular, but young men in general, maybe more in like finance culture, are doing.

have expressed to me in listening sessions and in one-on-one conversations that they are really turned off by. And for that reason, they are not excited or do not want to support Harris. And if they feel politically homeless and like they have no place to go and Trump is talking about sports and seeming really relatable, that is attractive to them.

It's interesting because Kamala has been accused of having a vibes campaign, right? But really, when Trump is talking to these same young voters, it's all about vibes. It's very low calorie, in my opinion. I know I said that earlier, but it seems like it's mostly about masculinity and not really so prescriptive when it comes to policy. How do these young men feel about Roe versus Wade and abortion being on the ballot? Is that something that even crosses their minds?

Something that I've been hearing a lot is this idea of a pro-choice, pro-Trump voter. So, you know, the issue of abortion has become really, it has, a lot of women have been able to rally behind it and

there's a sense of solidarity amongst young women who have grown up during the Trump years, who maybe their first political memory is going to a women's march in 2017 or something like that. And like their entire political existence has been about women's rights and reproductive health care access. We're not entire, but a big part of it. And for good reason. I mean, this is the first generation in 50 years that's grown up without the federally protected right to an abortion. But at the same time,

while that conversation has been going on, young men have felt like they don't have an issue to rally behind. And they, there's a sense I've heard in my conversations with young men that it's just not a motivating issue to them. And, or they feel like they're not, they shouldn't be the ones speaking on it because it doesn't affect their bodies. And so they feel like it's not their place. They're, they're afraid of cancel culture if they say the wrong thing. And, um,

They just almost don't want to touch the issue, which therefore has pushed young men who might be pretty moderate on the issue, don't necessarily know exactly where they stand, but do believe that a woman should have the right to choose. When Trump has been sort of, you know, as you said, a little vague about his policies and recently saying that he wouldn't.

enact or push for a national abortion ban. That's pretty appealing to these young men. Um, I spoke to one young man in particular for the piece I wrote for the free press. His name is Mark and he's in New York city. So, you know, take that with a grain of salt. He's not in a battleground state, but he's from Virginia. And he told me he's 33. He's an independent. He voted for, uh,

Biden in 2020, but he is planning to vote for Trump this time around. And he told me that he just doesn't see, he doesn't believe Trump would ban abortion or that abortion is a top of choice action item for that administration. That's a direct quote from him. He said, well, because it's so clear that it's a losing ticket item. And so, yeah,

He believes that it's just not going to be something that it's not popular with voters. It's not popular with the like abortion being being pro-choice is popular with the American people. And so he thinks that Trump understands that and wouldn't touch it. And that matters to him, he said. So Trump's mixed messaging is working, essentially.

So when he talks to evangelicals, he says he's pro-life. When he's talking to a more secular crowd, he says he's pro-choice. So yeah, I guess it's working. Or leave it to the states, as he says. I spoke to a young man last night who is a voter in North Carolina. He said that he, you know, Trump has kind of taken this like,

1980s Democrat, but modern day Republican posture where the mixed messaging is actually working. And, you know, exactly to your point. And he he told me that he grew up in a pretty secular community where abortion wasn't really an issue. And that is something that when he's when he's casting his ballot, he's not thinking about abortion. He's thinking about the economy. He's thinking about immigration. He's thinking about crime.

But for young women, the stakes are a lot higher. I'm sure you're hearing that right. Abortion is on the ballot for them. Do you feel an intensity? Do you think they're going to come out to vote like the Harris campaign hopes? I do feel an intensity around it, you know, even in conversations, you know, in my own community, but also, of course, with the young women I speak to across the country and I observe some focus groups.

um in Philadelphia uh in September and in general this is a very motivating issue for young women we've seen that anytime that abortion's been on the ballot uh since Roe versus Wade was overturned and obviously the Harris campaign knows that and is leaning into it um and it makes sense that they're doing that I don't think that's what's necessarily um

It's not the only issue young women care about. And one thing that I think is important to note here too, when you're talking about reproductive health care access for women, a lot of them see that as an economic issue. And when you look at polls of young voters, the economy and health care usually are top of the list. Economy always is and health care usually is.

And so if you think about this in sort of this intersectional way where reproductive health care access is part of health care and an economic issue, it ties into the broader messaging that the Harris campaign is championing as well, which I think is smart. So, yes, it for sure is motivating young women.

Yeah, it's interesting because obviously the stakes are really high for them. And for the men, the stakes feel a lot lower when going out to vote. But you still you still sense the same amount of intensity for men when the stakes aren't as high. I think there are a lot of young men who are.

Feeling just fed up with political correctness or this sort of feeling like they can't say anything. And they've been, you know, they always say, I know I shouldn't say this, but like we feel kind of left behind. Like it's almost like this unspoken thing that they that a lot of them are feeling that is driving their political allegiances. But yeah.

they feel they're not supposed to talk about, which I think has actually contributed to the dynamic significantly, where it's totally kosher and expected that young women are going to come together and talk about how they need to go vote to protect their bodily autonomy and rights. There's no alternative of that for young men.

But I do think in general, the economy is motivating across like, you know, for all genders. And they give Trump higher points when it comes to the economy, right? Not necessarily. Harris is still leading in polls of young people by a large margin. There was just a CNBC Generation Lab poll that came out today and Harris is up 20 points over Trump with young voters under 35, which is around the same margin that

President Biden won the youth vote in 2020. So. But what's the breakdown on the economy for young voters? Who do they think handles it better? I don't have the exact number on that. I can get it for you. But when I when I ask that question in listening sessions, there is a general from a qualitative standpoint. It just kind of depends on the party line and.

There's sort of this confirming bias where if you're already supporting Harris, you're going to be able to speak to why you think she's better on the economy. And people who are really in the know will mention her policy on housing. Housing is a huge issue for young people. They'll mention that she wants to give $25,000 to first-time homebuyers.

But very few people actually know about that. And then when you ask when you ask young supporters of Trump, why do you believe he's strong on the economy? They say the economy was better when he was in office. Whether or not that's actually true or not, that's the perception that a lot of young people who support him for his economic policies have. Got it. OK, so last question, what do we get wrong about young voters? So.

There was a recent New York Times-Siena poll that showed that of registered voters under 30, 40 percent registered as independents. And a lot of the headlines about young people focus on the loudest and most sort of contentious activists in the respective parties.

But at the end of the day, a vast group of young people are somewhere in the middle and feel like they don't belong to either political party. When in listening sessions, I ask how many of you feel you align with one party over another. Almost always the majority of the folks in the room say they feel they don't align with either party, whether that means they're somewhere in the middle or they feel more left than the Democratic Party currently is. Depends on where I am having that conversation.

That said, I think that there needs to be more of a conversation about these people who are in the middle, who are sick of political vitriol, want to work together on solutions in the middle aisle. Like there is, I don't mean to sound cheesy about this at all. There genuinely is a

uh, a desire from both, you know, young people on, on both sides of the aisle and in the middle to combat the issues that are top of mind for young people, whether that's school shootings, whether that's, you know, moving beyond sort of the economy and abortion, whether that's school shootings, whether that's climate change, there are groups on both the left and the right that are working on climate solutions and environmental causes. They have very different ways of going about it. You know, some are for the green new deal and other are for nuclear energy, but, uh,

There are conservative climate activists. One group in particular is the American Conservation Coalition. So there are generational issues that unite young people across the aisle. And there's a generational consensus that currently neither party is prioritizing the issues that matter most to young people.

I hear a lot of double haters from the young people, but ultimately it depends on whether they go out and vote and they are kind of an unreliable block. So the lack of enthusiasm that you're hearing, it's not bode well for either party. No. And I think just in thinking of long-term ramifications, you know, I'm not necessarily...

so pessimistic that there will be low youth footer turnout. Like I said, I think there has been this growing aptitude for political action and civic action among

amongst members of Gen Z in part because of this sense of feeling fed up. So I still think there's a reason to be optimistic there. That said, I think for the future trajectory of politics in this country and young people's desires when it comes to what they want the future of the country to look like, I hear a lot of we should have something other than a two-party system. And who knows?

how and if that would actually come to fruition, but it is definitely something that is talked about frequently along with getting rid of the Electoral College. Interesting. Well, we'll see if the next generation can pull that one off. The current generations clearly haven't. Thanks so much for your time, Rachel. This was great. Keep your ears to the ground. Let me know what you're hearing. Curious in these final weeks if they can both get these young people out and voting. Definitely. Thank you so much, Sarah. That was

That was another episode of Somebody's Got to Win. I'm your host, Tara Palmieri. I want to thank my producers, Christopher Sutton and Connor Nevins for sticking with me during these wild times. So much programming over the past two weeks and more to come, more than usual. We'll have another episode on Monday and another on Tuesday. If you like this podcast, please...

Subscribe, rate it, share it with your friends. If you like my reporting, go to Puck.news slash Tara Palmieri and sign up for my newsletter, the best and the brightest. You can use my discount code, uppercase T-A-R-A 20 for 20% off a subscription at Puck. See you again on Monday.