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Hi, I'm Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent, and this is Somebody's Gotta Win.
Well, this was a week in Washington where it felt like everyone loses. For the first time in history, Speaker of the House was stripped of his position. Yeah, he was ousted. Kevin McCarthy, 10 months in and he was out of the job. The Speaker of the House is second in line to the presidency. Let's not forget how important they are in the chain of command. And yet, just eight rebels in the Republican caucus voted alongside with the Democrats to remove him.
That's all it took. It actually took just one member, Matt Gaetz, to call a motion to vacate or call a vote on whether the speaker should be removed. And that's what happened. Now, of course, everyone in Washington saw this coming. You probably saw this coming as well. It took McCarthy four days, 15 votes to become speaker. And he had to make a pretty tough bargain to get there. He had to agree to allow just one person to be able to call a vote on his speakership.
So when he passed a short term funding bill to keep the government open for 45 days, which the hardline conservative MAGA Republicans said they didn't want him to do, they followed through on the threat. At least Matt Gaetz did. And he called a motion to vacate on Monday. And by Wednesday, there was a vote on the speaker and he was out. He was done.
They all said they didn't trust him. That was the long-running thing about Kevin McCarthy that the conservatives said, we don't trust him. He tells us whatever he wants to hear. We don't believe he's a true conservative. And they wouldn't vote for him as Speaker of the House unless they could remove him if he didn't do something conservative enough. He was under their thumb all along because he didn't win by a large enough majority. The Republicans barely have a majority in the House. And there are just a number of
Some people would call them terrorists, but really hardline Republicans that because of the small margins have more control over the rest of the caucus. So when McCarthy voted to pass a short term spending bill with Democrats, they decided that they would vote to remove him. And you know what? There's another short term spending bill that comes up in 45 days. Does that mean the next speaker is going to be removed as well if he has to pass a spending bill to keep the government open? We'll see.
So what happens next? Well, the House is in recess until next Wednesday, October 11th. Until then, I'm sure you'll be hearing a lot about the other people who are jockeying for the top job, like McCarthy's number two, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan, who is the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, which is running that Joe Biden impeachment investigation, and Tom Emmer. Kevin McCarthy won't run for Speaker again.
But I just wonder what this is going to do to the institution. Will there just be shutdowns all the time as speakers grasp for power? They just don't want to be taken out by their own party? Or will we constantly see speakers cycling in and out if they have to vote with the other party to keep the government open? But one thing I know for sure, and I know it's been floated a lot on Fox News, is that Trump won't be Speaker of the House.
To break it all down, I brought on Puck's congressional correspondent, Abby Livingston. Abby, thanks so much for joining me. I am literally sitting across the table from Abby right now on this very weird day where we know there is no Speaker of the House. And there's just this very angry pro-temp speaker, Patrick McHenry, the guy who basically threw the gavel back down. I understand that it's the job that no one wants to be the top speaker, but it is also sort of... I mean, it's also... I understand...
That it's a job that no one wants. But I still can't really wrap my mind around the idea that no one wants to be the Speaker of the House right now. It is the top spot. It's the President and then the Speaker of the House, basically, in terms of power structure in Washington. And yet...
they're so angry and that, that this could happen. Um, I understand it's a double edged sword with the makeup of the Congress right now where it's so extreme and people don't want to have to face that, the humiliation and the embarrassment. Um, but I, I don't know, like Washington is all about stealing power. And so that's why I'm like,
unless they're just faking anger, but he's... Patrick McHenry, who is the kind of like pro-temp speaker, he's not actually putting his name forward to run for speaker, right? It does not appear he's doing any calls. So, yes. But he's sort of been an interesting figure and he's been... I've been watching him through this and he's...
very good at counting votes and he's sort of a good behind the scenes deputy. He's not, he's not one of the front facing members, but you know, I think it's probably a gift now if it wasn't already the gavel slam after the proceedings yesterday, it was, it's, I think that is emblematic of every member of the house of representatives, no matter what party. I mean, this is, this is a personal thing.
hotbed of rage. I mean, in every direction, I've never seen anything like this. And it's also incredibly unpredictable. Washington's a place where people pride themselves on seeing around corners. And there's a lot of people who can't even make sense of which way is up or down. I totally get that, Abby. I totally understand the idea that the institutions have been disrupted. But isn't there also opportunity in the chaos? Like,
isn't this a moment for Democrats to steal more power for one of the Republicans who's been rising up to steal the gavel? I mean, as much as everyone's devastated, there's gotta be people who are like starting to dream up machinations of how to steal their own power. I, yeah, this is, um, you know, bring out your fan fiction time. Cause this is, this is the moment for it. Um,
Yeah, I mean, this could be, I mean, I think we did see a lot of, I don't know how to quite articulate it, but I guess I'd call it political destruction yesterday. But, you know, whenever something burns down, there's something new that grows. We have a leadership race on our hands that could, on the Republican side, you know, move the circles around the table, who's sitting where, you know, and, you know,
there was so much personal bad blood toward Kevin McCarthy. I think part of that was he's been around for a long time and he's been in leadership for a long time. And so I think as much of this was about a spending bill, there were just slights built up over the years where people resented him for things that had nothing to do with what was at hand. Somehow Nancy Pelosi has far better managed that over the years. But I just think effectively he was not feared. Right. He wasn't feared and everyone just sort of felt like,
he would tell you what you wanted to hear and then he wouldn't follow through on it. I mean, that was the one thing about Kevin McCarthy. They just felt like he wouldn't keep his word, right? But you heard that over and over and over again. And it wasn't just from conservatives. You heard it from across the spectrum. Although he did have a lot of loyalists
He has some devoted loyalists, and we don't really see them. They're not the ones who jump in front of the camera, but they are furious. And as a source told me today, their tentacles are all over the house. And there is one person on their mind right now, and it is Matt Gaetz. But I still don't understand why they're seeking revenge on another guy's behalf. I also, maybe I see politics as too... I assume that everyone there is out for themselves.
And that they, unless the vengeance helps them, why would they do that? I don't see it that way. Or they spent so many years invested in Kevin McCarthy's rise and they've risen with him that losing their leader is why they're out for blood.
I think it's part of that. I think it's this feeling that eight people were able to overturn the will of the rest of the conference. But I think there are people who really do adore him and have grown up. He recruited them when they first ran for Congress eight, ten, five years ago. He's raised money for them. He shows up in their district. He is very good with the like the
caring and tending to members. And so he has, and I do think the House runs, and this is sort of the premise of what I write about, alliances are very powerful and some of these members are deeply good friends. And so, I mean, one of the key strengths of being in Washington is having people who will have your back. And these people weren't able to get him over the line, but they're
They're on the hunt now. But then you also see on the flip side, you know, Kevin McCarthy spent $2 million to help Nancy Mace and her swings district. Yeah, in South Carolina. And she ended up voting against him and voting to have him removed, which was shocking because she's not considered a MAGA Republican by any means. She's voted to impeach Trump, right? And...
You know, that's another example where people will say, well, in Washington, if you want a friend, get a dog, you know? So it's like, it kind of goes both ways. It's hard to tell, you know, how many people are really out for themselves and how much of this is like true friendship bonds. Yeah.
Well, to an extent, and I mean, a lot of it's transactional, but like there may be a price for Nancy Mace to pay someday. I mean, this is I mean, we just got to remember Newton's law for every action. There's an equal and opposite reaction. You know, we don't know what South Carolina maps are going to look like down the road. That district has been competitive in the past. And, you know, depending on who is the leader, who is the chairman of the NRCC, she could get her money cut.
And so these slights are remembered. And I mean, I do think there is a sincerity of friendships that if you mess with my friend, I might lie in wait for years before I have a chance to exact revenge. Interesting. Are any of McCarthy's friends actually running for Speaker? I know Steve Scalise has openly sort of put his name out there, Tom Emmer. And I had heard for a while that there was some friction between Steve Scalise and Kevin McCarthy over the last speakership.
race where there were 13 or 14 votes. And there was a feeling that Scalise was out there trying to whip privately to see if he might be able to be speaker. Matt Gaith has already said that he would support Steve Scalise. So to me, that makes me think that he can bring along those other five and he will have enough votes. But what's your thinking? Like who's jockeying? Who has the best chance of being speaker next week when they had their next vote? I probably put money on Scalise. Back to McCarthy. I,
it has been sort of
an unspoken open secret that they have probably not the friendliest relationship. But if, and I had a source in my ear over the last two weeks just reminding me, Scalise's handprints are not on this whole downfall. He, I think he's always been helpful as much as he can be on the surface, but he was not getting in the thick of the impeachment or any of these things. He's also in treatment for cancer. And most people would kind of
counted him out for a leadership race, but he said he was feeling good and he's been making calls. Um, I think he's probably the most likely he's also, um, was shot at the congressional baseball practice. So he has hero cred. He hasn't. Yeah. So there's like, again, like members of Congress often have very strange backstories. Um, so I think he's the most likely, um, Jim Jordan appears to be in the mix. Um,
You know, one person pointed out to me, a Republican, there's been so much back and forth in civil war over the last few years. You know, there might be an opening for someone we're not thinking of who doesn't have the baggage. But this is really unstable. And it's very strange also because they released the House. And my understanding is members have stayed over Republicans to have meetings and such. But yeah, because they're probably whipping. They're trying to figure out who's going to be the next speaker. Yeah.
But they're also starting to fly out. So this will be a leadership race by remote, too, over the next week. But I don't know if we'll have a speaker next week. So, I mean, this is a really unstable thing. And I just think every member of the House conference is so powerful because there is such a small margin that they can cause trouble. Yeah. Five votes. That's incredible. Yeah. Five votes is what you need. And that's assuming no one's sick. Right.
or gets COVID. You know, so it's just, it's completely, we are in such a crazy situation and it's so unstable and it's just very hard to predict hour to hour. I don't want to play Monday morning quarterback, but I can't help but think that maybe Kevin McCarthy should have held onto the impeachment card a little bit longer. He should have dangled that carrot and maybe shouldn't have given it up to the extremists as soon as he did, you know, to the Matt Gaetz's, the Marjorie Taylor Greene's who were really hungry to impeach Joe Biden. The first hearing was,
I think it was last week. It was a total mess. Their witnesses contradicted their claims. And all anyone could talk about at that time was a shutdown and a possible motion to vacate of the speaker. And no one actually really paid attention to their hearing. And I don't know, like maybe if he had held on to that card, he could have said, don't vote on the motion to vacate. I'll give you impeachment instead. You know...
I was thinking about this yesterday. This sort of has had a sense of inevitability since at least August. I had sources who were unapologetic in August about taking vacation time, which is unheard of in Washington. You always want to show you're working, but these people all knew the fall was going to be hell on earth on Capitol Hill, and so they were protective of it. Yeah.
I felt like yesterday was almost like Kevin McCarthy had been sent eviction notices to get out of the house. And I mean, I'm using this as a metaphor, not the House of Representatives, but a house. And it was like yesterday, the landlord with a locksmith showed up and said, it's time to go. And it was just, this was a very inevitable thing that he had just kept... Overstate is welcome. It was just things kept building and building and building. And it was just...
suddenly like it exploded. But I would also just say this yesterday felt like the Republican Party has basically been in a cold civil war since 2010. And this was the explosion we've all been waiting for, that party leaders had kept putting out the fires and it just finally exploded. So I think this was even bigger than McCarthy. Okay. So how does the next speaker even heal that? Or
Or does the next speaker end up just sticking around for 45 days until he tries to pass the next spending bill and he can't? And he's basically knocked out for the same thing as McCarthy, right? Or do they have to change the motion to vacate so that it can no longer be triggered by one person? And just to be clear, the motion to vacate is a rule, right? That was a... It's a concession that McCarthy made at the beginning of this. Every Congress, there's new rules voted on, put in place. And so he...
Usually it's a higher number. And so McCarthy gave up the higher number in order to get votes. Right. Gates said, we'll vote for you. I'll bring you five guys and or however it was. It was five at the time, right? I think so. Yeah. A handful of members will vote for you, even though we hate your guts and we'll make you suffer through 13 rounds.
if you let us depose of you with just one vote, raising the motion to vacate, and then there's a round of votes. And he said he was going to do it if he didn't get what he wanted the entire time. He basically said, you know, you're our puppet because we can destroy you at any time. It's interesting, though, like, okay, so if Gates is able to slay the king, right, you would think he would be able to anoint the next one too, right? Because if he can keep these five or six guys in alignment...
And he can say, well, we'll take Steve Scalise, but we won't take Tim Emmer. Then he basically picks the next speaker. But if he doesn't get what he wants, then he can take that speaker down too, right?
So there are several questions there. So one, the spending bill, there is a line of thought, and it could be out of date by the time we broadcast this post, but get the spending bill passed now under McHenry so that the next speaker doesn't have to deal with the spending bill for another year. There's a reason these things always go down in the fall, and it's because the fiscal year ends in September. But then we're in an election year, but that's a whole different thing.
thing. With regard to Gates, it's just he does have that influence over that small group, but there is so much anger that I almost think if he gets too supportive of someone, that creates problems on their within the rest of the conference. Oh, God, you don't want to have too much. Yeah, that makes sense. The scale of rage at Matt Gates right now among Republicans, I would say, is more intense than their anger at Democrats.
Right. By the way, Matt Gaetz, meanwhile, is probably floating out his run for governor, which I've heard about from many people. This whole debacle is actually helping him back home where the Florida GOP has gone very far to the right. He's raising a ton of money off of this. And he's getting the TV time he's always dreamed of. So it's really interesting. Also, the fact that this is so personal between Matt Gaetz and Kevin McCarthy. I mean...
First of all, there was an ethics investigation into Matt Gaetz. This was during the time in the last Congress when the DOJ was investigating him for sex trafficking. They dropped that case.
but he was still being investigated in the House for a variety of other reasons. And he reportedly blamed Kevin McCarthy for that. And Kevin McCarthy keeps saying, like, he hates me because of an ethics investigation. Matt Gaetz says, no, I hate him because he's not a true conservative, right? It's like, this is the game. I bet you it's a bit of all of it. And also Matt Gaetz sees an opportunity to raise his profile. Correct. He was on ABC's This Week. I know. Yeah. And so...
I would say I've heard from Republicans who are close to the Hill, but not members. And there is a huge interest in exacting a price from Matt Gaetz over this. And I, you know, my question was, well, what can you take away from him that he would care about? The things most members would view as punishment, he doesn't care. And it was, I was reminded he still is under investigation by ethics. Ethics is a strange committee. It is one of
if not the only committee broken down evenly between the parties. And the only way you really get in trouble with ethics is if one of the members from your side decides to throw the hammer at you. So he could have a tough time in ethics. That's the main kind of fulcrum, but it's still, I cannot underscore enough, this is also just sort of like brainstorming, where the people just do not have any sense of where things are headed and are just kind of spitballing ideas of how to get started in dealing with the implications of all this.
I imagine when I think of Matt Gaetz, I'm like, he's wearing a suicide vest, but he's daring people to pull it and not get blown up with him. Right?
I mean, the term a week ago being used for him was terrorist. And so like that was the refrain in my conversations was political terrorist. He loves to play with fire. And he's also very close to Trump, who, by the way, did not save Kevin McCarthy. I think that's very interesting. He did nothing. He was also in court, which let's just step back.
This is a party in serious trouble. That doesn't mean they can't win. But I mean, when you step back and think that a speaker got deposed and the presidential most likely nominee was in court yesterday, it is still like we're numb to it. But it is also worth pointing out. Is it going to have a lot of impact in 2024?
It's still a year from now, 2024. So I in 2015, Boehner stepped down and we didn't know who the speaker was going to be for a little while. And during that period, even Republicans said, I'm very we're very nervous about the fundraising, how to get protect the House seats. The House is in play.
Paul Ryan comes in, he ends up raising more money than Boehner ever did. So I try to be cautious of that. That said, there's no Paul Ryan's left. We are in that situation now. Democrats are closely watching for what happens at the NRCC, what happens at the Leadership Aligned Super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund. And they are hoping that they can make hay out of this in the sense strategy. I think...
The most immediate thing to look for is early October is sort of the last round of House recruits announcing their campaigns for office in the competitive seats. And I have not made calls on this yet, but I'm very curious how this affects those candidates in their final hours debating whether or not they're going to run. Right. I mean, why would you want to join this?
The slippery slope, the slippery pole. Well, and also for all of his flaws, Kevin McCarthy was a political animal. He knew how to recruit. He knew how to mentor. He knew how to raise money. And I don't think there's anybody in the conference right now who could meet his... People will step up. There's always money to be given. But McCarthy was just uniquely political in a way that I think will be hard to replace. There's also a new dynamic right now. I mean, I think with the fact that
McCarthy could be so easily disposed, I think it increases the chances of shutdowns, right? It increases the use of discharge petitions, which are this weird rule where Democrats can partner up with Republicans to put votes on the floor without going through committees. So it kind of makes everything like it just creates a whole different dynamic inside the House and probably just continues to build like it continues to weaken trust in the institutions in Congress. Right. And I'm sure that affects both sides, don't you think?
Or no, more so Republicans because they're in charge. Democrats have their act together. I have to say that. But given how McHenry threw Pelosi and Hoyer out of their hideaways, I
I think the partisanship now is entering a new universe that like I've never even imagined. And so I just think it's going to be so hard to get things done. I do think if Democrats take power, things settle down just because they although it's counterintuitive to a generation ago, they're the ones who are now getting in line. I think the Republican conference is going to continue in chaos.
It may not be a way that manifests itself to like the average American, but I also, there was a good line in John Harris's analysis of this and he pointed to the Soviet Union after Lenny Brezhnev died and how there was a succession of
prime ministers, we don't even remember their names up. And it wouldn't shock me if we had people, we had multiple speakers in the next year. I could see that happening, actually. But I think that would be bad for Republicans, definitely. Oh, it's not, it's,
It's not healthy for the Republican Party to have this. I mean, especially with the margins this tight and the House is in play. So it's, I could see them getting away with one speaker change and like a really embarrassing speakership vote, you know, the one back in January. But I can't see them having a rapid succession of speakers and people, you know, being okay with that. We are in a new universe.
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Can't wait for this one. Alien Romulus, rated R, now playing only in theaters. Get your tickets now. Okay, you just said that Democrats are in lockstep, that they pulled this off. So do you really think that the Democrats let Kevin McCarthy sink?
I mean, they will characterize it as we were bystanders. I heard that a lot. I mean, they did vote to vacate, but they were like, this is a Republican problem. That said, the anger at this man from the Democratic side is not comparable to Paul Ryan or John Boehner. The...
I mean, you have to imagine. Imagine your workplace got invaded by barbarians and you were running for your life or hiding in a closet. And then your co-workers tell you it didn't happen. January 6th. January 6th. Yeah. And so... And everything that's come out of it, the trip to Mar-a-Lago, and then one after another, there's been another escalation on unrelated fronts. This is primal. And...
There was just... My sense was the meeting the House Democrats had. It should be noted Nancy Pelosi was in San Francisco. There's a lot of questions over how much Nancy Pelosi is actually running the caucus versus the new leader, Hakeem Jeffries. She was not there, so he was on his own. And my sense was he...
I think implicitly they say he's a better listener than her. He listened to the caucus and it was almost unanimous. All but one were all in for taking out Kevin McCarthy from moderate to liberal. So in Kevin McCarthy's final press conference, he aired a lot of grievances, right? It was,
pretty painful to watch. But he also claimed that Nancy Pelosi told him he would take care of him on the motion to vacate and it was okay to leave it up to, you know, one vote. Do you think that's true that this has always been a gentleman's agreement on both sides? Like, don't worry, we'll take care of you if your party rises up? Well, you know,
We haven't, there is no tradition of this because we have not experienced this as a country, at least for 100 years. It strikes me as strange that Pelosi would break her word if that's true, because she does not have a reputation of that. But I think it's also worth pointing out, she was not the leader of the party when he was in the speaker's race. That was Hakeem Jeffries. So in a way, McCarthy was assuming that Pelosi would still be politicized.
pulling the strings from behind the scenes. I mean, that's how I interpreted it. So, you know, I mean, it seems like Jeffries and McCarthy have a pretty amicable relationship. But I mean, that was a pretty cutthroat thing. I mean, but it's what his caucus wanted. And so, I mean, I have not seen Democrats put on the brass knuckles like that in a long time. And it was it was almost startling. And then once I started talking to them, there was really nothing
no other path for them emotionally. Yeah, it seems to me too, like McHenry throwing Pelosi out of her hideaway spot and Sonny Hoyer was like kind of a tantrum. He's like, what are they going to do, blame themselves? They have to blame the Democrats for this.
And the Democrats are just looking at this going, no, this is and it's I mean, I've there was a confidence to Democrats yesterday that I just haven't seen in a long time. And they are very at peace with their decision. Yeah. You know, it's kind of funny. So you were out last night with Republicans right on Capitol Hill. What were they? How are they feeling?
They felt horror. They felt fear. They felt relief it was over. I sort of walked around Pennsylvania Avenue and looked at the bars, and some of them were packed with very Republican-looking staffers. And, you know, I wrote yesterday, we're expecting retirements to come down from the Republican side. This is...
A lot of members who've been around for a while are not down with this. But I think it's also important to look at the staffer class. And I wrote that there were a lot of dazed Alex P. Keaton types looking around going, why am I still here? And so it was, it had a, you know, every once in a while, Washington, there's someone dies in Washington and the whole city reacts and it's very solemn and it almost felt like someone had died. You know, I got a text too from someone who has the Democratic, um,
From someone who was at the National Democratic Club. And, you know, that's where all the members sort of pile out of. And it was a raucous night. Like they were all, you know, they had no remorse for Kevin McCarthy. And some of them were just saying like, well, he never reached out to me directly. So why would I have helped him? Yeah.
I had a member who has had a career pretty parallel to Kevin McCarthy in tenure and said they've never really communicated. And it was a member who likes to reach out to Republicans. And I was really surprised, which is I think that is what has befuddled me about him is he I've almost thought of him as a prodigy on interpersonal friendships with these members. But he had none of that for Democrats. And it just I mean, I think a little bit of good faith would have gone a long way yesterday, but there was none of that to be had.
Well, thank you, Abby. This was a great chat. Thanks for having me. I feel like we dig deep. I hope everyone sort of understands how so much of this is about interpersonal relationships in Washington and not so much about passing legislation.
You know, most bills get passed based on relationships. And that's why it's really important to kind of keep that antenna up. But it's amazing how many are not Republican, but just members in general are oblivious to this. And as for the leadership race, there will have to be a new speaker because somebody's got to win or everyone loses. Because if you get the seat, you're probably going to be vacated within a few weeks. Yeah. So somebody's got to win. Yeah.
I don't know. This one feels like a loser, but sure. Okay. Thanks, Abby. Thanks, Tara.
So we're going to try something new every week, even though it does seem like Donald Trump is leading the GOP field substantially. We'll do a poll of the week. After all, we did cover the GOP debate. Let's see how it all shook out. To talk about the poll of the week, I'm going to bring in producer Connor Nevins, who's been looking around to see the snap polls, see what the vibe is like after that mess last week. Connor, what have you found?
Well, Tara, the one that was most interesting came out this morning, Wednesday morning, and it's a Suffolk University Boston Globe poll. Which is a legit poll, by the way. Very. It surveys likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, and it's very good news for Nikki Haley. It shows Haley on top of Ron DeSantis 19% to 10%. And I thought that that number was pretty, stood out to me pretty, I was wondering what you made of that. Well, let's not forget that when, right after, I guess, the midterm elections, the
There were polls that showed Ron DeSantis with a 12 point lead over Donald Trump in New Hampshire. And now he's pulling at 10%. And what was Trump in that poll?
He's 40. He's 49 percent. So he's still I mean, he's clearing the field pretty comfortably. Yes. 30, 30 points over Nikki Haley. So it's just been a decline for Ron DeSantis from being a 12 point lead over Donald Trump in New Hampshire. Now he's at 10 percent. I think at the time, Nikki Haley was only at three percent when he was leading Donald Trump by 12 percent.
Now you've got Nikki trailing him. You've got Nikki ahead of him by nine points. It's really interesting. Even just September 26th, the last poll that I saw, it was a UNHCNN poll.
Nikki, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Rhonda Sanchez were about one point apart in New Hampshire. It was like within the margin of error. Still, Rhonda Sanchez was at the bottom of the pack. But the fact that Rhonda Sanchez is trailing her by nine points shows that the debates are actually working for her and not so much for him. I mean, we'll see. He has another shot. Everybody has another chance, right? There's a third debate, but...
That was my sense anyway after the debate that Nikki had the best performance. But to see that playing in New Hampshire is interesting. And Chris Christie, who's sort of betting it all on New Hampshire, right? Like, that's his whole strategy. And in some polls he's seen as leading. He's at 6% in this poll. But let's not forget that Trump is still plus 30 points ahead of Haley. Like, he's 30 points ahead of the second place person. So this is kind of...
So it's kind of useless. But Ramaswamy also dropped after the debates to 4%. Tim Scott and his new like fighter stance dropped to 4%. Chris Christie's at 6%. In some polling, he was shown at 12, 13% in New Hampshire. And this is the second primary state. So it matters. I don't know. What did you think of it, Connor?
Well, I think my takeaway is something that you've talked about a lot on the show is that it seems like the field outside of Trump, they're all just competing for the same portion of the pie. They're not growing the pie amongst themselves. They're not kind of cutting into Trump's advantage or lead a lot. Is that the same sense that you have? Do you think they're all just kind of basically taking turns at the top? Or do you think Nikki Haley is, this is representative of her actually making some real headway? Yeah.
I think you're right that they are just cutting into the same piece of pie, as you said. But it's interesting to see that big of a divide. And if, you know, Christie, Scott, Ramaswamy, Burgum, Pence...
continue to keep going down. I don't know how they can justify staying in the game. And I wonder if this will help her with fundraising. Something interesting that Chris Christie is doing right now, a group connected to him is now sending out mailers to Democrats trying to urge them to switch parties and vote for Chris Christie. It's kind of an interesting tactic. I don't know how that plays in South Carolina, but this is a New Hampshire campaign.
get out the vote where they're a little bit more open-minded. I don't think it's going to play well. He's trying to go after a whole other pie, Democrats. But you're right. I mean, Trump is still 30 points ahead of them. But it's interesting to see Haley bumping up. Does that mean there's real momentum for her? That's what she needs right now. Does it mean more fundraising? Does it mean the rest of them eventually drop out? I don't know. It further reinforces the idea that Iowa is kind of becoming an all-or-nothing proposition for DeSantis too, right? Does it feel that way? Yeah.
Oh, absolutely. They've spent no time in New Hampshire and you can see it in the polls. But to see Chris Christie dropping too, you know, it's like Scott, Rama Swamy, they didn't get a bump. And Haley has been in New Hampshire a lot. So maybe that's everyone says she's running like the tightest campaign, most effective campaign. But I don't know if that's enough to beat the, you know, beat Donald Trump.
Thanks for tuning in to Somebody's Gotta Win. Thanks to Connor Nevins and Devin Manzi for producing this podcast. We'll be back on Tuesday with another episode. If you like it, share it with your friends. If you want more of my reporting, you can sign up for my newsletter, The Best and the Brightest, by going to puck.news.com and for 20% off, put in Tara20. Thanks again. I'll see you on Tuesday.