Waiting on a Dark-Horse Speaker With Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman
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We are at an intense moment. America's top ally, Israel, is at war. More than 1,300 people have been declared dead as of Monday. And yet the House Republicans are so at war with themselves that they can't pick a Speaker of the House, the person that this country needs to be able to send aid abroad to Israel.

It's quite ironic because the Republicans are the ones who are constantly going on about the need to protect Israel from Iran, that they are our top allies. They're the most hawkish on Israel. So when Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, well, former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, was ousted last week, it was a very historic moment. It had never happened before. But it was just an empty seat that was filled temporarily.

And it didn't feel quite as urgent as it feels now to fill it. But amazingly, this dire situation has not united House Republicans. They're still hung up on their grievances, and they don't seem to be any closer to picking a speaker by their self-imposed deadline of Wednesday.

After the Republicans met for their conference meeting, I chatted with Punchbowl's Jake Sherman. He's one of the top reporters on Capitol Hill to see if anything had shifted. And you know what? It hadn't. There was still no consensus around the top two candidates, Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan. Maybe a dark horse emerges?

But if that doesn't happen, maybe something even more wild happens, like the Democrats bail out the Republicans and pick their speaker for them, at least temporarily, so that they can send aid to Israel.

So, Jake, last week when I reached out to you and I was like, what are the odds? Who's going to win this race? We were just going to talk about like the greasy backdoor politicking between, you know, Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan and who had the best campaign, who had the best chances, you know, just thinking along political lines, alliances, maybe Trump's impact or non-impact, you know, how...

And I just thought this was going to be sort of a typical speaker's race, maybe atypical in the sense that the former president suggested that he could be speaker. But things have changed. You know, now there's a war in Israel and this kind of obsequious politicking feels like a little gross and the need for a speaker feels more urgent.

They're, you know, obviously the Speaker of the House is second in line to the president. On top of putting out a statement in support of Israel, they would need to authorize spending for Israel, you know, supplemental aid, which they obviously need. There was a big Republican conference meeting tonight, and I know, you know, you're one of the most

plugged in people on the Hill. So I figured, you know, you would be the guy to know what was the vibe coming out of that meeting. Are we any close to getting a Speaker of the House? And do the members seem to understand the urgency of having a real Speaker of the House? Or are they just so like caught up on their hangups and backbiting and anger right now? Like, what are you feeling? So I think, Tara, it's somewhere in between. I mean, I do think there is...

The answer is yes. Congress needs to at some point in the next call it month could be two weeks, could be three weeks, could be a little bit more needs to spend more money or send more money to Israel, like undoubtedly to refresh Iron Dome and a bunch of those things.

You know, members are pretty myopic, right? I mean, they are like looking at what's in front of them. But the people who are involved in this

Middle East politics on the Hill and lawmakers who see this as a, you know, are focused on this are saying we need to get a speaker in here so we could spend money and we could appropriate money and all of those kinds of things. So are we any closer? I mean,

In an absolute sense, yes, because at some point they are going to elect a speaker. But the contest between Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise is shocking to me for a couple reasons. Number one, um,

We are effectively within the, you know, we're in the late stages of this campaign and neither Scalise nor Jordan are running away with this thing. That tells you a lot. Usually there's a clear favorite. The last I checked, and this was a couple hours ago, it was 51 votes to 51 supporters to 31 supporters. That's, you know, 82, um,

There's 221 members of the House Republican Conference. Right, and you need 217. And you need 217 on the floor to win. So all of that said,

It does kind of seem small to be fighting over this when, you know, a thousand or nine hundred or whatever Israelis are dead. And by the way, a country that the Republicans have said is our closest ally will do anything to protect, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So and remember, Tara, and I know you know this, but just for everybody to remember, Israel.

leadership races are intensely personal, especially on the Republican side of the aisle. I mean, people are holding grudges that date back years and perceive slights and actual slights. And I mean, it's just a really big mess. That's why I thought maybe they would get their shit together because there's a war going on.

But here's the thing. Is it mostly... So I talked to a moderate who's pretty plugged in, and he was saying, like, there are going to be a lot of write-ins for McCarthy. Moderates are angry. Is this all moderates who are unwilling to commit? Are, like, the 50 and 30, either for Scalise or Jordan, are they, like, hardliners who are just...

you know, or devotees, like who are these other, I guess, hundred and so members that won't commit? Are they just like on the fence or are they pro McCarthy? I'm just trying to figure out. There are some, it's probably a mix. There are some that are pro McCarthy. Um, there are some that are, um, uh,

Like how many are pro McCarthy? Would you think? So there were a couple, I will say this cause our, our, our newsletter, by the time people are listening, we'll be out. But three members today, uh, and today is Monday. Um, three members stood up in this house Republican conference meeting and said they will vote for no one but McCarthy. So if they hold that, if they hold that, but by the way, let's, I just, let's be clear for a second. McCarthy spent all day, um,

playing footsie with running for speaker again. He started the day on Hugh Hewitt, the conservative radio host, saying he'll leave it up to the conference. He then held a stemwinder of a 40 or so minute, 30 minute press conference I left early. Oh, he's just loving those. Yeah. And so he's like, so he's just...

he's trying to play footsie here. And then listen, when it comes to the, the, the holdouts, um, some of them are just legitimately unsure or could never vote for either of these men and are hoping that another man or woman, um, gets into the mix. And I think that's, I don't think that's a long shot. I was going to say, I think that's a long shot, but I don't actually think it's a long shot. I think it's possible.

You know what you said in your newsletter, which I loved. This was on Monday's newsletter. Republicans tend to be attracted to candidates who appear as if they've been dragged, kicking and screaming to the speakership. And I think that sort of gets the heart of what you're saying, that there might be a dark horse involved.

and like someone that appears like they're the martyr by becoming speaker. And, you know, do you think that person might be Patrick McHenry? Because he's the one who's like, oh, I don't want to be the temporary speaker. This is horrible. He has all these theatrics with slamming the gavel. And I mean, do you think a part of him just wants to keep the job? And like this might, he might just be the Paul Ryan who ends up getting it in the end?

I do think that a part of him wants the job. I think that, um, I, I think that, I think that McHenry has, it was in the leadership before he was Scalise's deputy. Um, he has spent a long time thinking and studying leadership politics. He is somebody that is, um, uh, very, very well versed in what it takes to run the house representatives, but the hard liners will have the same, uh,

gripes and complaints about him as they did McCarthy. He crafted the debt limit deal. He is seen as a moderate. He's not a moderate. He's a conservative. He was elected 2005. He was a hardliner before these hardliners existed. So do I think so? I don't know that he could win a race now. That's

Like if we're in this place in like two weeks, I think he probably will. People will give him a second look. But and by the way, I think that this stalemate could go for two weeks. Is that what you're saying? I think it could go to the weekend. I do. I don't I don't feel confident about that. I just don't see this moving at all.

anytime, anytime soon. And it's just not moving as quick as it should. And yeah, so I don't I don't think it'll be wrapped up by Wednesday. Personally, neither do a lot of people in the House Republican conference leadership and the House Republican leadership rather believe it will be locked up quickly. So so are these members told to stick around all week? Is that what they're doing? And so yeah, so Democrats, the House is in session this week.

The House is in session this week. Democrats are coming back effectively because they are expecting a speaker vote at some point this week. I think that's a long shot. But but the House will be in motion in forward motion or backward motion, depending on how we see it.

But McKendry could pass like a supplemental bill. He could even pass a spending bill. So that's the big, that's the big question. Probably not. So this is like real nerdy shit. So I'm sorry for people who are not nerds. Let's just get, let's, let's just linger in this place for a second or two. Okay. So this, this, this,

effectively he's serving in a temporary position because of a law that was created on 9-11. If Congress were to be dead there, most people don't believe that most people don't believe he has the power to do anything. He could test that and try to push it, but I don't think it would work. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. You know, for me, fitness has always been about finding that groove, whether it's hitting the pavement outside, which I've been allowed over dialing up a sweat session indoors.

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really quickly just to like go back to McCarthy. What are the chances that he is resurrected? I think very slim. I think his head is in a different place. I think, and furthermore, I don't believe that any, I mean, coming out of this meeting, none of the dissidents, the McCarthy opponents had any interest in seeing him revived and put toward the speakership. So like,

Very slim chances, very, very slim chances. But listen, I will say, and this is like great house drama because like just by cracking the door to say to another bid, he has frozen some of these undecideds and they're not going to Scleese and Jordan with this kind of.

crazy fucking hope that Kevin McCarthy is going to be the speaker again, which I just don't think is feasible right now. So actually, he's just prolonging the stalemate by dangling the idea. Yeah. Yeah. I mean...

One member said to me, like, if the eight members, the eight members of Congress that voted to remove McCarthy were willing to support one of the candidates, that would make them less likely to support that candidate. Have you heard that? Yes, there's a lot of that. And there's a lot of people who say they won't support any speaker candidate unless they

commit to punishing the eight. So there's all sorts of... And by the way, remember, this is like a five-seat, four-seat majority. So you can't punish a bunch of people and think everything is going to be cool. You're not going to get anything done to the extent they were getting anything done anyway. So they're all between a rock and a hard place. Okay. Let's just talk about...

Scalise's pitch, okay? He's probably the most beloved, right? He's probably the one who could sort of bridge across the party, right? Rather than Jim Jordan, who's seen as too much of a hardliner. Am I right? Do you think Scalise could win over the boss? Yeah, I do. You know, a few thoughts on Scalise. Yes, he has wanted this job for a long time. He has pretended that he doesn't want this job and he has been happy as majority leader. Whatever. That's fine. He can say what he wants to say. They always do that. Whatever makes him sleep at night, right?

So... Ever since Eric Cantor didn't want the job, right? Right. Yeah, right. Eric Cantor didn't want... Anyway, Scalise is a conservative. He is...

Listen, both of these people are far more conservative than McCarthy, and you can make the argument, and I think there's a good argument to be made, that McCarthy was the most representative of the Republican conference writ large, right? That he was conservative, but he had bona fides with, you know, the moderates liked him, all that stuff. All that said, um...

His pitch effectively is, I know how this job is done. I could get it done. Jordan will be harmful to moderates, even if he's not saying that. And you should elect me because I already raised a lot of money. I already know what it takes, etc. Now,

Um, one member came out of the meeting tonight, Ralph Norman of South Carolina, who was one of the people who, one of the people who gave McCarthy trouble over the last couple months. And Norman said, I don't want to, and he's in Norman is for Jordan. He said, I don't want a speaker who will deteriorate in the job.

I mean, Scalise has blood cancer. Right. So it's like, holy shit. This is also a guy who was shot, who survived being shot at a... It was a congressional baseball game. Correct. So it's like... But by the way... Mean girls. Actual mean girls. Scalise, it's... Totally. But it's kind of amazing. I mean, Scalise is...

survived a shooting. He is now in the middle of chemotherapy. This is somebody who has just an incredible drive for what he does. But listen, I think there are some members who say that his health is an issue. And I think that's something that he has addressed. He said he feels great and et cetera. So, but that's something that he'll have to continue addressing as time goes on, I think, because people are bringing it up all the time. Right. Okay. Let's talk about Jordan. Okay.

I didn't think that Trump's support would help him with moderates, especially those in like D plus five districts. And I just think, but then I thought maybe McCarthy's support for Jim Jordan helped him with the moderates. I'm just not really sure. Like where did he is not officially McCarthy is not officially endorsed Jim Jordan. I mean, he's seen as the hand he has seen as being as favoring Jim Jordan and, and,

having written a book about both men a long time ago, I could tell you that meaning McCarthy, Scalise, Jordan, all these guys, I could tell you that I would be surprised if McCarthy wants Scalise to be speaker. Now, I don't think the lesser of two evils for him, right? Yeah. I mean, he's got, he's gotten close to Jordan, but the Trump endorsement moves zero people. I think zero people. I saw no discernible impact on,

And I agree with you that with moderates who are sitting in districts that Joe Biden won by six, seven, eight points, like they don't give a shit what Donald Trump says, because and by the way, I think we're all overrating this piece. I don't think it means anything.

who the speaker is going into 2024 if Trump's at the top of the ticket. Like, I just think that, like, no one will care if Jim Jordan or Steve Scalise is speaker if Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket because Donald Trump will be the, you know, will be the weight around people's neck or the benefit to people in their districts. So I just think that, like, people are way overthinking this. And by the way, it would be kind of amazing as a political spectacle if Trump

Trump endorses Scalise, or Jordan rather, if Trump endorses Jordan and Jordan doesn't win. Yeah. It would be amazing. I mean,

It would be. And I mean, it wouldn't be the first time that Trump endorsed someone and they lost actually probably. No. And by the way, he should have learned better. He should have understood that he does not. He's never been good on the Hill. He's just never been either in internal party races or legislating. He's just been a bad. He's not been a savvy operator on Capitol Hill. It's almost like the kiss of death in some ways when he gets involved. Although, do you think he helped Kevin McCarthy get over the line or no?

No, not really. I mean, again, these are like parochial races that are just so mired in the bullshit between the two people running against each other that it's tough to kind of make any grander statement about anything else besides these stupid relationships.

Okay, so what's the deal with Jim Jordan? Do you think he has a shot or do you think he's... Who would you say is more likely to become speakers, police or Jim Jordan? I think Jordan has the momentum right now. Now,

I do slightly. I mean, most people I talk to think Scalise wins. I will tell you this, though, Tara, a lot of people I talk to, a lot of people I've spoken to tonight and coming out of this conference meeting thinks neither of these men are going to be speaker. I mean, and this is from the top levels of the party all the way to the rank and file. Just like people and even people who are affiliated or are supporting one of these two men are

They just think they are not this that neither Scalise nor Jordan is going to win the speakership because they want it too much. Not only do they want it too much, but like they're cut from the same cloth. They there's so many doubts about both of them. They just it just from top to bottom. It's just not it just people think it's just not they are underwhelmed by their choices. Let's put it that way.

So do you think it'll be a more moderate speaker? And who do you think it'll be? Have you heard any names being tossed about?

I mean, I think McHenry is probably the most likely. Could there be a caretaker speaker like a Tom Cole or someone like that? I'm a little bit more skeptical of that. I think, to be honest with you... A speaker with a bow tie, though? We think that could happen? You know, listen, I'm not known for my sartorial chops, but I am not a bow tie man. Although I do know how to tie one, which is...

Impressive. Listen, I think McHenry... There could come a situation at the end of this week, if they don't have a speaker, where Democrats say, we need a speaker. We need to do shit. We have to pass government funding in 30 days. We have this Israel situation, this war, these terrorist attacks. We need to send money to Israel. We're going to support Patrick McHenry for 30 to 60 days so he can get this shit done. And then...

you could hold your elections then once you've gotten your shit together. That doesn't seem terribly far-fetched to me.

Wow. So the Democrats pick the speaker of the house. Um, well, I'm just, I mean, they can't do it without Republican support and that would require McKenna. But how does that impact them? Right. You, you just pick a few moderate Republicans to do it. Like Hakeem doesn't actually vote. Well, I don't know the answer to that. I mean, it depends how, I mean, the situation in Israel is very bad. It depends what needs to get done in the house. If there's a ton of shit that's piling up in the house that needs to get done, they're going to have to get somebody in that seat. Uh,

And I don't know what that looks like. And they can just tell their constituents, like, we have to vote for a Republican. It was a dire situation. And that was it. And by the way, though, they will put constraints on that person. They will, you know, there will have to be some sort of large-scale negotiation to work this out. But the House cannot stay without a leader, without somebody in line to the president for that long. It's just not good for democracy. There's a lot of stuff that Congress has to do. And God forbid the U.S. should get in a conflict and there wasn't a speaker. I mean, that would be tragic.

Right. I mean, if anything, our enemies are definitely looking at us right now in the middle of all these conflicts. Okay. One last question, because I know I said I'd only give you only had 20 minutes. So the backdrop of all of this is that just one member of Congress could call for a vote to vacate the speaker or basically remove the speaker. What are the chances that that is removed? Like, is that just going to stay in place or do you think they'll be able to sort that out?

I think there's a conversation going on in the conference about getting rid of it or raising that threshold. Remember, this threshold was at one for a very long time. And Pelosi changed it and raised it to it has to come from the leadership.

McCarthy, in his quest to become Speaker, put it back. I think that it will get changed in some way, shape, or form. But Republicans need to do it with Republican votes only. That's what they say. They could do it with Democratic votes if they wanted to on the House floor, but they don't want to. And I do think it'll get changed. It's insane. It's insane to have this knife hanging over the Speaker that one person could call a vote. Listen, I've been covering Congress a long time, and

There are people that have bad days all the time, and there are always, in a narrow majority, five votes to kick somebody out of the speakership. So it's impossible to govern under this scenario, and I think that is a widespread feeling. And yet everyone has until now. Yeah, and that's because the Republican conference is really fucked up. I mean, I don't mean that in a...

I don't mean that to, you know, I don't mean that in a bad way. And, but I think you do. It's really divided. No, it's really divided. And it's really, it's a really close majority. Okay. And Matt Gaetz, is he going to get thrown out of the house? Is that even possible? He,

He's not going to get thrown out of the House. I feel like you can't get rid of an elected official. You can with, I think, two-thirds majority, but he could get kicked out of the House Republican Conference. I don't think that's going to happen. Mike Lawler and other people have thought about trying to kick him out of the conference. It's kind of a dead end. I mean, I think, you know... I think Gates will be back if he doesn't run for governor in Florida. But the thing is, the villages, they love him. And he probably gets kudos for this.

There, don't you think? His constituents, they love him. I think that he, I think his constituents love him. And listen, you almost never lose by, by shitting on your leadership, right? Like nobody likes congressional leadership except for me. I like covering them, but nobody likes congressional leadership, especially in a red district like his. He's probably getting high fives when he comes home.

Totally. It's like you told McCarthy, you told Congress, you held it to him, you know? Totally. Totally. Well, most Americans don't trust the institution anyway. All right. Well, thank you, Jake. This was awesome. I really love getting your reporting and I'll let you get to it because you've got another newsletter coming out tonight and tomorrow and sign up for Punchbowl News to get all the scoops. Thanks, Tara.

Thanks for listening. This is another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. Thank you to my producers, Connor Nevins and Devin Manzi. If you like my reporting, please sign up for my newsletter, The Best and the Brightest at puck.news slash Tara Palmieri and use the discount code Tara20. That's T-A-R-A 20. If you like this pod, please subscribe, rate, and share it. I'll be back on Thursday.