V Spehar on the Influencer Strategy to 270
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Hi, I'm J.J.

Hi, I'm Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent, and this is Somebody's Gotta Win. We're a few days out from the vice presidential debate, and I've had a bit more sleep to digest it all. It was clear to me that the debate was an opportunity for J.D. Vance to correct his botched rollout when all the shitty comments he said in the past about Donald Trump came to light.

And the nasty things he said about large swaths of the American public also came forward, like the childless cat lady remarks. And at the time, he showed very little contrition. Instead, he leaned into it and kept talking to the bro pods, riling up the base like a fire-breathing MAGA warrior. You know, I expected him to sound sort of like a smartass, but...

But he came off like a decent, nice, folksy human being. And it helped him because he had serious likability issues. His favorability was negative 22 before the debate. And after it, it jumped 19 points to negative three. That's not great.

But it's a lot better than negative 22. And it's probably thanks to Tim Waltz, who pretty much agreed with him on everything, never really called him out on his bullshit and acknowledged their commonalities. Kind of almost went out of their way to acknowledge what they had in common.

But, you know, Waltz's nice guy persona may have helped him as well. His favorability jumped, too, from 14 points to 37 points. But he never really had the likability issues that J.D. Vance had. So for Republicans who are desperate for a future for the party after Donald Trump,

They saw J.D. on Tuesday night as someone who has positioned himself as a bridge between the establishment and MAGA, someone who wasn't just playing for Trump last night, but for his own future, for 2028, regardless of the outcome of the race. They see him as someone who can effectively communicate the America First worldview, either unite with the establishment on this or completely vanquish them because he doesn't sound like a complete Neanderthal. So, yeah,

Expect a lot more talk about how J.D. Vance is the future of the party, and I am sure this will piss Donald Trump off. Nevertheless, there is very little chance that Trump will debate Kamala Harris again based on J.D.'s performance, no matter how much she goads him into it. But the fact that Harris's team has made it so clear that

that she wants another debate. It's an acknowledgement that she needs more exposure to the American people, especially the undecideds who say they still want to know more about her. For so long, they have shunned the traditional legacy press, the talk shows, the morning shows, the sit-down interviews. They all want more Kamala Harris interviews.

And she hasn't done a town hall yet. She will do her first town hall this week with Univision. She also hasn't really sat down except with CNN for a traditional interview, not with the broadcast network. And she'll sit down with 60 Minutes this week. Donald Trump, too, has of late evaded the mainstream media. And he, too, like Kamala Harris, has gone directly to influencers, influencers who they believe are speaking to the segment of their

voter groups that they need to talk to. He's talking to the bros. They want to get out as many men as they can. So he's going to the Theo Bonds and the other bro pods. And Kamala Harris is talking to young Black men who she's soft with, Hispanics, women. And she's doing it through influencers, not through the traditional media. But there's only 30 days left

And I'm pretty sure that people have a formed opinion about Donald Trump, but they clearly don't have a very formed opinion about Kamala Harris. So you think she'd be blitzing the airways right now.

Well, maybe this gamble is going to work out in the end. Maybe the influencer path to the White House will work. I've got V Spear on the show, who is one of the most influential content producers of this election cycle on TikTok. We'll talk about this influencer campaign to the White House and whether it works. Do these candidates even need to talk to the traditional press? Or can they speak directly to the voters they want to and avoid any sort of tough questioning?

The thanks for coming on the show, taking some time out of your day, which is like in constant content creating mode. I see you all the time under the desk news. I thought it was brilliant, by the way. News anchors are always like the voice of God above the desk telling you how to think and feel. And you're under the desk like your friend kind of comforting you and explaining it all in a safe,

warm way. And I thought it was really brilliant, actually. It's how I feel. I'm a generally very scared person. And so under the desk became a comfortable place for me. I like your voice. I like the way you communicate. It's different than what we're used to. Definitely not the clinical touch that we've expected from news. And I sometimes get annoyed when people will be like...

oh, Walter Cronkite, what would he be rolling in his grave right now? And it's like, not everybody wants to hear the voice of a man telling them how to think and feel about everything. I also don't necessarily think that he would because Walter Cronkite was known for breaking the fourth wall all the time and like reaching out to the audience through like his direct connections when it was needed, like when President Kennedy was killed and he was like, I'm going to be with you until we know what happened. Like that,

that's the vibe of under the desk. And the New York times actually very generously called me the Walter Cronkite of Gen Z, which is one way too generous. And two Gen Z has no idea who Walter Cronkite is. I was like, maybe I'm just the V spear.

of millennials. I don't know. I think everybody should be their own rainbow. Whatever you're doing, it's huge and it's working because you are one of the biggest political TikTok stars out there, if not the biggest, with 3.1 million followers. It's amazing. And I actually remember after the midterm elections, you're like, I am not going to talk about politics for a while.

I'm not doing it. Sorry. And yet your audience hung in with you throughout that moment when you took a hiatus for your, probably your own mental health. Yeah, man. Don't you get sick of it? I feel like, especially after this, I mean,

We know that with the election, it's not going to end on November 5th. It might not end on January 20th. We're going to see how it goes, right? But you get sick of it and people get tuned out and they get aggravated. There has to be an end. There has to be a season finale, even if we have to pick up the show again later. Well, I'll be here as long as Bill Simmons has me.

Shout out to the boss at The Ringer. But no, I think I will be with the viewers through what I expect will be much longer than a November 5th, November 6th decision. No way. I know. I'm sorry. My dog is having a panic attack because they're working on my roof right now. Pancetta. You love your dog. I'm sure everyone's heard that. My dog has anxiety, right? Okay. I really...

want to talk to you about like the influencer campaigns. Sure. That is what I think this election has become. Both sides choosing to basically side swipe the press and go their own ways and talk directly to their audiences. And, you know, Trump's done it through bro pods, bro verse, Theo Vaughn kind of crowd. But it's

But it's been targeted. They're clearly speaking to young men under 30, and it's working. They are increasingly becoming more conservative. This used to be a pretty reliable democratic demographic, and it's changing. These guys want their zins. They feel like the world is the HR department and they can't say anything wrong. They're going to be canceled. Some of them have resentments against the advancements of women and minority, or they just

They feel like the progressives are, you know, hurting their ability to provide for a family or make their way in the world or have some sort of economic strength. On the other side, Kamala Harris also has been avoiding the mainstream press as well. I mean, she's done what?

one interview with CNN and she will do 60 Minutes. Yesterday, Trump announced that he wouldn't do 60 Minutes right before the debate, which I think was just a way of playing the refs and sending out a message that said, you know, we don't trust 60, we just, we don't trust CBS to be credible and fair in this debate. So why don't we just announce right now that we won't do the sit-down interview? But they're not even doing town halls.

I mean, they're going to do one with Univision, but usually you would do a few CNN town halls. I worry, and I think, not even for both sides. I imagine what my head would be like inside of both the Harris campaign where voters say they want to know more about Harris, right? A lot of these undecided say they don't know enough about her. And yet she's not going to like

the morning shows or even just sitting down with, I guess, daytime shows. She's going up to influencers and for Trump too. I mean, I think everybody knows enough about Trump, so he doesn't need to talk to anyone anymore. But for her, I think their influencer route's more risky. What do you think? Well, we know from reporting that the less people see of Trump, the more they forget who he is. And so it actually benefits him to not be seen as much. Um,

And I don't know that young men, I'm not convinced yet that young men inherently independently believe that their path to power has been destroyed by women or minorities or DEI or HR, whatever we want to call it. I think they've been told that it is. And I think with a space where all of us have such limited leisure time to take in a podcast or read an article or watch some TikToks,

the ones that they are watching are really narrowed down on essentially driving that point forward. So you have folks like Joe Rogan or Theo, who does it a little bit less, who are sort of...

showing them that, hey, look what's happening to you. And I don't know that if they were shown something else that they wouldn't go for that. Because it's certainly not like a universal thing that's happening to young men. There's plenty of young men who are very interested in the Harris-Walls campaign.

And in protecting their mom or their sister or their aunts or their girlfriends or wives from the reproductive health care policies that the Trump administration is espousing. I actually sense resentment, though, having a brother who's kind of in that age. He's 10 years younger than me. I do sense some resentment about the economic advancements of women. I just think they do. They see us as competition now. Sure. I think it's an easy scapegoat, certainly, is to say, oh, it's women's fault that we

of linemen, like to use my brother as an example, that used to pay $28.50 an hour in 1995 now pays $17 an hour in 2024. That's not because women said that the linemen shouldn't get the right rate. It's because they found a way to...

finagle policies that allowed them to hire part-time or to not pay overtime or to reduce the rate. I remember when my dad retired from Lockheed Martin, he was making great money. He'd been there for 40 years. And when other people were going in, like my nephews and cousins, they were telling him, okay, well, this job starts at 18 bucks an hour. And my dad's like, I started at $18 an hour in 1982. Like this is not...

This is not normal. So I think a lot of it is corporate greed, but they are passing the buck on to, well, now there's more, more automation, AI, women, minorities, DEI. We have to do all this stuff. But at the end of the day, it comes down to CEOs not paying labor what they're due. It comes down to unions being broken down who don't have the right to negotiate better wages and packages for folks. And we are seeing a rise in labor right now that I think is really interesting, um,

Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. But certainly folks are getting more interested in unions as they come to see that like...

trickle-down economics and rugged individualism hasn't served them. But yet Trump is still getting 47% of the country right now. I agree. And I think part of that is people vote for what they think is strong and cool sometimes. I mean, like you and I are like in the news and politics all the time. And so I could like rattle off any number of policies, how they failed, what the numbers are. But for the average person, they don't want to. And they shouldn't have to be like a 24-7 news and politics consumer to know what's going on in this country.

They know what they had with Trump. We tend to remember things from the past a little bit more favorably than they were in truth. And there is either an inherent bias or a fear or an issue with voting for somebody who has never held office like this before. And I blame that some on Trump.

creating an unprecedented unicorn out of Harris, right? She'll be the first woman. She'll be the first Black person, the first Asian American. People don't really like the first. The first is harder to trust because it's not as proven, right? So by putting all these glass ceilings on it, we've made it seem like this crazy magic thing as opposed to like, hey, here's her history. She'd be phenomenal. No, and you're right. Just look at the resume alone. But I actually think they've done a really good job of downplaying the firstness because they saw how much it backfired with

Hillary. Yeah, you didn't hear it at the DNC. The only time she talked about race really was about her biography. Yeah, she didn't talk about being the first woman. She let everybody else do that, right? She let them all on stage talk about the historical nature of it. But for the most part, I think they think right now, like, less is more. Let's run out the clock. You

And just target in on African-American males who they're losing to Trump and young men right now and just getting out their base of young women. And I just wonder from your point of view, because I feel like you're on the ground and the ground right now, it's not necessarily just door knocking. It's like the Internet growing.

Yeah, the internet is definitely the new door knock and the new phone bang for sure. Exactly. So what are you seeing? Okay, so going back to why she's not doing mainstream media or why Trump isn't doing CBS or whatever the case may be, we know that when Trump isn't on TV, he's remembered more fondly. He always says something that ends up tripping up the way that he's being managed as a candidate.

And with her, I kind of feel like why should she in some ways? Here's what I go back to as like a pivotal moment in where the change in landscape for media was for me. For years and years and years,

Rachel Maddow was in reaction to Tucker Carlson. And that's where the news was going, right? Tucker would say something, she would react to it as like an example. We were constantly reacting to what Trump was doing. We're constantly reacting to, hey, that's not true or this is bad or whatever. It was a constant reaction game. And I think that mainstream media in many ways, and I think this was exemplified from the Dana Bash interview, um,

isn't a hangover when it comes to being in reaction to Trump or making him the main character all the time. So even she does the interview with Dana Bash and almost all of her questions are asking Kamala Harris to answer for something that Trump did. And it was like, why would she do that? Like what, what benefit does that have other than to continue to assume him as the status quo as the default and as the main character, when it comes to influencers and

We know like my channel is on par for viewership with mainstream media and it has way more likability and trust.

That is because I am new, right? Like this is a new thing. And so, and to this point, I've earned the audience's trust every single day. When I've made a mistake, I've corrected it. I'm a much smaller operation than a major news network. It's going to be easier for an influencer to be more agile than a major network where all the different contributors and the legacy of media and the commercials and everything play in. And you're pretty upfront that you're also an activist. So it's not like there's any question of where you stand. No.

And I think we've heard things like objectivity favors the oppressor, right? So when we look at major news networks, they say all of this objectivity simply is making excuses for or ignoring or not fact-checking folks who are saying falsehoods or presenting lies. And they want to see more fact-checking. But then when they fact-check, they say fact-checks favor the liberals and they all get mad, right? There's all this stuff. Instead of journalists being able to just do the work that they need to do, they have to be

be so worried about the way they do their work. And I think that that puts a lot of difficulty into the industry overall. And then when you look at viewership is down, trust is down.

With her starting her campaign literally in July, how much time does she have and what does she need to do? And I think she's leveraged community. But she didn't spend much of that time talking to the media at all. In fact, like it was almost like they'd put her in like some bubble wrap in a cave somewhere. And I think having an antagonistic interview is not a bad thing. It shows you can hold your own.

And I think the viewers want to see it in some ways. Don't you want to see Trump face questions like from the other end? Sure. I would love to see Trump face questions. I'd love to see her face questions about herself and her policies. Oftentimes she's asked questions to react to. Hey, what do you think about Trump saying you're not black?

Why is that a question? That wasted three minutes of our day now. What's the point in that? Yeah, that was probably not necessary, but it's worth asking her about her comments in 2019 that are completely different from her comments now. And she answered that several times. And that's the thing. She continues to be answered the same question. So in 2019... Her answers are so big. She's like, my values haven't changed. Let's go through it. In 2019...

She said, I want to ban fracking, right? I would support banning fracking. She said that as a senator from California. And that was maybe something she believed. In 2020 and over the course of her vice presidency, she said, I've gotten more information about this topic. She hung out with Scranton Joe. Hang out with Scranton Joe, whatever. She's like, it's Saudi Arabia. We need the money. I don't know.

I've gotten more information on the topic. I've gone from being a senator to a vice president. My decision structure is different, but my values have been changed. She supports energy, supports clean energy. And she understands now that fracking, banning fracking would deeply hurt many of our constituencies that we care about, especially Pennsylvania and West Virginia. But you wouldn't get that answer out of her unless she was asked about it from a more antagonistic outlet. I was not antagonistic. Well, and I'm glad that she did ask about it.

She asked about it, but then after she gives the answer, they continue to ask her the same thing. They're like, well, but in 2019, she's like, but my actions for the last four years have not been my statement as a person running for Senate in California. Those are different things. You know what I mean? She wasn't running for Senate then. She was running for-

The first time she ran for office, which was like... No, it was when she was running for president that she said that. That's what I mean. But like for a short period of time, right? But she was coming from the perspective, in my mind, of a California senator and what she thought she could say. Trump says crazy shit all the time and they just allow him to change his mind. He said he's going to make IVF free and they were like, okay, well, he's not anti-abortion. He said he's going to make IVF free and it's like...

Does he have the power to do that? Does he have the structure and the history to do that? They never push back on him the same way they push back on her. And they are constantly asking Democrats to answer for things that Republicans do. And I think that's part of why the mainstream structure doesn't maybe work or hasn't been prioritized at this time. I think with Trump, he is all over the place. So it's hard to really nail him down. He hasn't been consistent at all.

in any, and I would agree that makes it more difficult for the press because he's inconsistent. But I mean, I think also if you are in the space that Kamala Harris is in, that people still want to know more about you, then you try to get in front of as many people as possible in as many ways as you possibly can. I've told some people that she doesn't feel comfortable in interviews. It's just not a good space for her.

I've interviewed her and I didn't find that to be true at all. I interviewed her twice now and I didn't, I mean, and obviously like I'm different than maybe like Jake Tapper or somebody else. Like, but I did not find her to be uncomfortable or not have a structure or process for how to interview her and like her to be prepared for that. If let's look at the whole picture of what she's doing then, right? We say, oh, she's not doing mainstream media TV. Well, ratings are down and we know that it hasn't necessarily moved the needle for her to change hearts and minds. What she has is,

hundreds of thousands of volunteers in hundreds of field offices in every single state in this nation. She donated, it was like, what, $25 million or something to down ballot races so that she could continue to not just run for president, but help the down ballot ticket. She has the money to do it too. But that's the thing. This is the first time that Democrats are investing in Missouri, investing in Florida. She did 52 stop bus tour out there and she's got her surrogates out there too. So I think

what we're seeing is maybe a disconnect from television and a reconnect to those in-person door knocking, phone calling, showing up in each state, having surrogates, having volunteers, having more in real life interactions than we're having big TV press conferences. Now that said, I would love to see her do a town hall. I'd love to see Donald Trump do a town hall. I like town halls better than debates. I think debates are oftentimes a wash and it's all style. Yeah. It's like whatever.

But I love a town hall. I'm interested to see what she does with Univision in the town hall. I think in those ways she could be getting out there more. But the force that is Kamala HQ on the internet, she's reaching millions, millions, millions of people. Whereas Biden, I think by the time he dropped out, he has like 600,000 followers on TikTok. Biden was tough, Tara. As a person who- Trying to make Biden cool. Oh my God, it was near impossible, right? Because Biden doesn't,

the culture of a statesman like Biden does not easily transfer to the Internet. It's part of why Trump finds a difficult time on TikTok. You know, he's good in the broverse, but is he good on like the general social medias? I don't know. He stays on his Twitter. He rocks. And well, when he had Twitter, that was his original superpower, truth socially. He has these echo chambers that he dominates in. But when it comes to the broader Internet or the general public, I think she's doing much better there.

You know what? It's so funny. Trump truth that me this weekend by name. He said I was fake news. I would be so scared of that. See, that's the shit. I don't want to get involved. It was like a tree fell in the forest and no one heard it, honestly. A few of my friends pinged me that work in journalism. They're like at 1130 at night on Friday. You didn't see Trump truth that you were at 11 p.m. at night on Friday. I'm like, no, I'm at a birthday party having some champagne. Can you leave me alone? I don't want to be truthful.

him. I don't want to be on a list of his. He said that he would consider jailing the fake news and journalists. I don't want to be anywhere on his thing. He truthed at me because he wanted my story out there.

He did it because he wanted the story out there that he wants to sue David Meir. But he said it was fake news that he wants to, but he should. He just doesn't have the time. Too much winning. Okay, I want to talk about this on the flip side. We're talking a lot about Kamala Harris not wanting to talk to the mainstream press. Trump doesn't want to talk to the mainstream press either, although he really does. He's obsessed with the press. That's a whole other story. Oh, he's obsessed with attention, for sure. Oh, he's obsessed with attention, approval. It's a whole egomaniacal, narcissistic thing. But...

But he sees us as tools, cudgels, we're the enemy, right? Privately, Democrats kind of talk about us the same way or treat us the same way, publicly embrace us. But is Trump going about it the right way, too? I think he is in the sense that, like you said, the less noise around Trump, probably the better for those who have Trump nostalgia. Yeah.

for Trump amnesia. But do you think he's doing it the right way? Like, do you think the bro pods are going to help him? Are these press approaches just more targeted? They make more sense. And those undecided, they're listening to you. Are the undecideds listening to you, V? Or are your listeners dyed-in-the-wool progressives? Oh.

Oh, no. I've got a 30% conservative audience. It might be slightly less now that I've been coconut pilled for the last three months or so. But I had a big conservative audience. I've got a huge military audience. I've got a good balance of female and male.

And it's partly because I tend to come at things as like, here's what happened and not try to make it like super, super partisan. Certainly over the last couple of months, I've had a more vested interest in Kamala's story being told than I maybe even did with Biden. And I'm honest with my audience about that. I am a gay married woman. I have a lot to lose here if Obergefell gets looked at by the Supreme Court again, if reproductive health continues to be challenged. So-

I make those biases known and people are like, yeah, obviously, of course, you're going to have a feeling about that. Do you think Trump's doing it the right way? I think Trump's getting whatever he can. I mean, I truly don't think that if CBS really was like, please, Mr. Trump, we'd love to have you on 60 Minutes, that he would say no. He's very easily flattered. I think he chases where the flattery is. And obviously, it's having an impact on young men, on the bro-verse, on the man-a-verse, on the Logan Paul, you know, sort of like circle of things.

And that makes sense. They look at him and they project on him the power that they want to see a path for themselves to have. It doesn't matter if what he says is true. It doesn't matter if the policies will long-term lead to harm for them and their community. If you are talking to people who are short-term decision makers, then a person like Trump, who just promises you something that you're willing to easily accept, is going to be more interesting to you than Kamala Harris, who tends to speak in long-term decisions. What will be the legacy of this? What will

be the long-term impact of this, how long a policy could take to implement. And so I think if you're just getting people, you know, juiced up on prime and, and WWE and like having a blast with it and making it a show, then it is that break for people from reality. And it plays into the,

stories they've been told on that side of the internet, that there's a third path, that there's a matrix, that there's a red pill and a blue pill, and you can somehow like rise above your station through magical means. And Trump is going to be the one who creates that path for you. I think people so desperately want to believe that they can break out of their current situation. And I think that Trump lies to them about how that will work.

But I don't know that that matters. When somebody is surviving something, when they're looking for a path to power or to comfort or to be seen, you know, he's certainly much better at that for that demographic. It just seems to me both of their approaches, choosing influencer campaigns, it suggests that they are base-driven campaigns, essentially. Kamala Harris is trying to get her base out.

She's trying to win back Hispanic men, Black men, but also keep the young people engaged, right? Make sure they actually go out because they're notoriously fickle. Make sure the women go out. And Trump is trying to drive up his numbers with men as much as he can. But the thing is, like, okay, you get your base out, but who actually decides the election? It's like that small percentage.

in the battleground states. So how do you hit them? With reproductive health care policies, for sure. That's what puts North Carolina in play. That's what puts Missouri in play. That's what puts a lot of places, Nebraska, potentially picking up an electoral call. You think Missouri is in play? I do on account of

of Chapel Roan, who is from Missouri, and her fan base. And even though she has begrudgingly endorsed Kamala Harris, she has given the people of Missouri something to aspire to. And that is not being seen as like,

dumb folks from the South. She's a superstar and she's a lesbian and she's accepted and she is the hero of Missouri for so many people who don't feel seen in that state. And I think now they feel seen and she's sort of like a, I don't know, like a gateway drug to being coconut pilled in some ways. And I think what you see with the killing of Marsilius Williams by the state and the abortion policies in Missouri are

are things that are going to get people out to vote. I think women will make a big difference in this election. And I think that puts Missouri into play because folks want to come out to maybe give Crystal Quaid a chance at getting governor. Now, will we get it? I don't know. We're going to see, right? But will we get a little bit closer? Maybe.

I think North Carolina is a great case, although I'm worried about what happened in Asheville, certainly, and the ways that people need to prioritize their safety and rebuilding their communities. When it comes to voting, Mark Robinson, right? Like who's going to vote for him at this point? Here's what I think. I think people, even if they're not excited to vote for Kamala, will go in to vote for the down ballot to protect their most immediate circumstance. Maybe like I used to say for Joe Biden.

Maybe they fill in the bubble for her too. Maybe she doesn't convince them, but maybe the down ballot did. And when they get in there, they're like, whatever. Okay. For those undecided people who aren't totally sold on her yet.

I just can't imagine the people of North Carolina not going out to vote for Trump because of Mark Robinson. Trump is still up in a lot of polls by two points. He has to outperform Mark Robinson by 15. That's a big ask, right? It certainly put North Carolina even more in play. I think it's interesting. I don't look at the polls. I look at the yard signs and I'm traveling all over the country right now for various different things. And I look at the yard signs and I remember what it looked

like in 2016. And I remember it was a sea of Trump signs, right? And then in 2020, there were less. And now, and I live in the most Republican district in New York, in Greece, New York, up here in upstate. And we got signs for down-ballot people and not Trump on people's lawns. Maybe one or two Trump signs where you used to see this town...

lit up with Trump signs. And so I think- Oh, really? Oh my God. And so I think that the enthusiasm for Trump or the willing to publicly admit that you still support him for a lot of consistent and reliable voters is going to be a challenge for him.

And I think as much as the bros love him online, are they registered to vote? Is he, I don't know what his conversions look like. You know what I mean? Like how many people are converting to be first-time voters that have a voter plan that are doing whatever? Are poll workers, you know, that are young men or do they just- Oh, they don't have that ground up.

That's what I'm saying. Or do they just have like a fun time when he comes on and it's like a WWE wrestling match? How much conversion does he have to actual voters versus attention and enthusiasm as a public figure? Well, I can tell you from my reporting that

The DNC obviously did it all in-house. They're handling their own ground operations. The RNC, because of the FEC, they've changed this rule that allows super PACs to coordinate with the campaigns on data sharing and ground operation in a way they never were able to do before in this era.

It has changed in about February. And so basically the Trump campaign has been rolling the dice and allowing these outside groups that are kind of dysfunctional to run their ground operation, like Charlie Cook's of Turning Point, Elon Musk's America Pack, and he hired all the DeSantis former staffers who spent a ton of money in Iowa.

to pay $6,700 per vote in Iowa and still lose by 30 points. So, yeah. That's what I'm saying, you know? A lot of people are really concerned about that, if it is a get-out-the-vote operation. I just think it's interesting that you were saying, like, one celebrity, like Chappelle Rohn, could change a state.

Sure. Like an influencer alone. Look what Taylor Swift has done. She's gotten like 300,000 new voter registrations filed. So like, I think that you are what's possible for you. Is that filed or is that that went to the site? You can fact check me on it. I feel like it was more that went to the site and it was like 300,000 that followed through with the registration. Okay. But definitely check because...

Oh, my God. I'm swimming in over here and I didn't pull up that. I know. I know. I know. Listen, it's a lot to keep in your in your mind. It's just I wonder what the Taylor Swift stuff 300,000 is great. But is it in the exact place you need it to be? Right. Oh, and it might not be right. It could be a bunch of kids in California, New York. We'll see. But I think certainly what Chapel Rowan has done with Missouri and putting a new face and making Missouri a cool place that reminds us that queer people and artists live there is fantastic.

something. Is it going to move the needle all the way to flip it blue? I don't know. Probably not. But what does it get it a little bit closer? Does it make other people feel like it's worth trying? Yeah, I do think so. Or at least build a democratic operation in Missouri that never existed before, because that's how it works. And that's how the Republicans have always been doing it. And Democrats have not. And so, you know, I'm going down to Springfield, Missouri, home of Chapel Roan, to see where she filmed her music video and talk to voters and stuff. And I just

I'm a person who's really interested and excited by the fact that young people are interested in politics because for so long I was like bullied about being a nerd about it. And now it's like the cool thing. And I'm like, yes, my time has finally come. Yes. But I think, and then when we look at the boomer and older votes, you got to remember over the last eight years, there's been a phenomenon of no contact within families. Trump took away a lot of people's parents with his rhetoric and Fox News aided in this sort of brainwashing of some folks where they were turning on their families. And I think people are really sick of that.

I look at folks like my dad who will talk about his golfing buddies and he's down in Florida and he's like, look, I voted for Trump in 2016. I did not vote in 2020. And right now I'm making a decision. Do I vote for Harris just to eradicate MAGAism because he wants to get back to the John McCain, Mitt Romney style Republican world that I don't know is ever coming back, but maybe. And his chatter amongst, you know, the 65 year old boomer golfers in Florida is like, I'm so sick of it.

Oh, I'm so sick of him. Are those guys going to show up the way they used to? My dad's a boomer in North Carolina, though, and he's like, she loves Trump. And that's the thing. Like there's there's this balance, you know, of like some folks. Yeah, but my dad's more of like a burn it down kind of he would vote for Bernie probably before he voted for Kamala Harris. He's like that voter that could be Bernie or Trump because he's like a working class guy. You know, it's same kind of thing.

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Know the real cost of vapes. Brought to you by the FDA. Would you want to interview Trump? No, thank you. No. Really? No, and not for any other reason other than I...

I think everybody has like a specialty in a place that is right for them to hold, hold water and carry water for. And for me, I do not feel the need to be essentially like opposition for the right wing. I think there are people who interview him better. And I don't think at this point in my career and with my nerves, I would want to do that. I'm not sure that I'm the right person for that. I think you're a great person for that. Who do you want to see interview Trump? Gosh, uh,

No one. I don't know. I think it's difficult to say, who do I want to see interview Trump? Because I don't believe anything this man has said. He's been a proven liar so often that I'm like, why would I want to put anybody else in a position? They're not going to exact truth from him. He's a flip-flopper and he constantly just says whatever he needs to say. Now, when it comes to who I want to interview J.D. Vance until the, I

I was more interested in him until the debates last night when you find that J.D. Vance is an empty vessel of a person, in my opinion, and he fills himself with whoever's in the room that is the most likable. When it's Trump, he fills himself with Trump. Last night when it was Tim Walz, he was agreeing with Tim Walz so much. He was trying to be so likable and gentlemanly. He kept saying, you ought to care. He was like practically Southern and he was like doing this whole Midwestern G. Gully thing. And to me, those are the markers of somebody who doesn't have a foundational sense of self.

He's a wonderful mimicker. And that speaks to his, you know, influence, Carl Yarvin and the inventor of mimeic theory and the Theo bros that JD Vance subscribes to the Peter Thiel's of the world who say you should mimic the smartest, greatest person in the room and make yourself a part of the greater whole. Like anybody who's trying to stand out as an individual and not like serve the brotherhood of man or whatever is, isn't, is going to be left out. And so I think he mimics the things he thinks will make him most likely in that moment to be liked and,

And again, this is where I say you got to look at the difference between people who are short-term thinkers and long-term thinkers. Are you a rewards-based person where he just wants to be liked right now? Or can you handle consequence and holding people through things that take a long time to do? Right now, there's a lot of unrest in the Middle East.

There is there's unrest in this country. And I want a leader who I think can keep a cool head and be a long term thinker and not just try to appease and shut down and annihilate constantly. Trump said we need to have one day of violence. OK, not one day, one hour of violence and no crime would happen in this country anymore. That shit's dangerous. That's short term magic thinking. And that's not something I want.

That's not something I want. It doesn't make any sense. I want to go back to a topic that we've discussed and I actually wrote about back when Joe Biden was still in office. And it was around the time when Trump had switched his position on TikTok. He went from saying, you know, he wanted to get rid of TikTok. He wanted to push a bill in Congress that eventually passed that would ban TikTok. You're against that bill. You actually went to Congress and you spoke out against it. Trump meets with Jeff Yoss, who runs TikTok. This happened in the spring.

Essentially, there's some like, I'll help you out. Jeff Yoss has hired a lot of people that are very close to Trump or worked for him in the administration, including Kellyanne Conway, a few others that you wouldn't know. But Kellyanne's one of the more prominent ones. And yeah, they had a kumbaya moment. And Trump since has said he supports TikTok. The algorithms I post on TikTok, I'm not nearly as good as you. And

I see it every time I put hashtag Trump, hashtag Trump 2024. I don't do it. And I put hashtag Kamala, hashtag Harris 2024. The algorithm, there's like millions and millions of hashtag Trumps. I don't even know a few hundred thousand hashtag Kamala. I mean, what's happening out there in the algorithm space? Are you being fed more conservative content than democratic content? No.

No, I don't think so. I think it's a pretty equal balance right now. So the thing that we need to know about TikTok is like all new platforms, if you didn't get started on it in 2019, 2020, when it was early and a little bit easier to start your journey to be coded essentially as a TikToker, it's going to be a little bit harder to gain an audience now. It's just like YouTube.

I'm trying to make a jump to get into starting a YouTube for long form content. I have like 20,000 followers. It's difficult when you join a new platform, especially I'm coded as a TikToker. You're coded as a traditional journalist. It takes a while to get into the culture and really dedicate your time to posting three times a day and all the stuff you have to do to build a career in content creation. Oh yeah, baby. It's because this is the full-time career, right? It's not like a side thing. So I think...

Trump and the TikTok ban. Trump hates China, but loves to have all of his products made there because he can have them made more cheaply and create more profits for himself. He also loves President Xi sometimes and thinks he's a strong man and all these different things. He can't seem to make up his mind. Again,

This is an example, again, of a short-term thinker who fills himself with the most powerful person in the room at that moment. Jeffrey Yass owns 60% of TikTok is owned by global investors and Jeffrey Yass owns the majority of that. He is the single person in the world who owns the most of TikTok. And he obviously wants TikTok to stay going.

I think that Trump would just as quickly, if he thought that DJT could buy it and make him the American owner of it, would be happy to ban it. He wants to shut down a speech and he wants to shut down traditional media whenever they don't agree with him. So I think...

Again, I can't take what Trump says as any kind of real thing other than to know as soon as he met with Jeffrey S., he changed his mind about the fiery rhetoric about trying to ban TikTok. It did not change the Republicans who led the legislation. He joined TikTok afterwards.

He joined afterwards, which he doesn't actually, he's never made a post of his own. I mean, there's like super cuts. He doesn't, it's not like Truth Social where you're getting him. Yeah, but do you think Kamala Harris is making posts of her own or Joe Biden? They weren't either. But that's the difference is he does make his own content. I don't know that they ever made their own content, right? He makes all of his own truths. He, oh, the truth. No, he dictates them and then somebody else. But that's what I'm saying. There's no direct to cameras, really. They're all posed just like they are on his website. It's not like he's become a TikTok person.

There's a person that just follows him around with a camera. But he hasn't become a TikToker. It's not like he embraced the culture and is like TikToking. He's so 80 years old. He uses it as a distribution channel. The guy is like... We've got the grandfluencers, the old gays, and all kinds of people on there that do great. There's politicians that do great. But I'm saying... This guy's running for president. I think that he...

I think he'll change his mind with what makes sense to him at that time. I don't think he's a champion for TikTok. And the bans against TikTok were predominantly written by and led by Republicans. Now they're supported by some Democrats too. Democrats I've made TikToks with when they were campaigning. I've had problems with that. The ban

against TikTok was pretty across the board bipartisan. And what's difficult about that is they have never been able to give us an exact reason. And they say, well, if you knew what I knew, then you would feel differently. And I'm like, well, that's not good enough for the American people. There's no other ban on a public utility like service that comes across as because I said so. That's not how legislation is supposed to work. That's not how any of this is supposed to work. They said it was a China influence targeting. They say that?

And then I'll have a meeting with John Kirby and he'll say that they don't believe in unilateral platform bans. They don't think that that's a requirement to protect people's data and to keep us less vulnerable from Chinese interference. They have all these hypotheticals that China could look at the data. They could do... I have this fight with Kara Swisher all the time because she's like, but we don't have reciprocity with them. They could do stuff to us that we couldn't do to them. And that's the base reason why it shouldn't exist. And I'm like, okay, that would have been a great thing to do when they bought

musically in 2016. We should have said they can't acquire this American platform. And then in 2019, when they got their first billion or million users or whatever, they should have said, oh, this is getting too close.

Now, we're at a place where there's 172 million Americans on it. There's 7 million small businesses. It generates $24 billion in GDP for this country and you want to shut it down? What are you going to replace it with? We're like in a situation where this rip the band-aid off, ban something, censor it, annihilate it. Both sides know that they need it. It's a valuable medium to talk to influencers and they both create influencer campaigns, talk to their base.

and they also know that they'll piss off a ton of people if they get rid of it before the election. We'll see what happens after. Oh, we'll see what happens after, certainly. Now, the ban was signed, right? That legislation went through, and the decision on the ban... But it's being contested. The decision on the ban comes December 6th. At least that's what we've asked for. That's TikTok's lawsuit against the DOJ and the creator's lawsuit against the DOJ have kind of been rolled into one in some ways. We got that decision December 6th, and if it says yes...

January 19th, which is the day before inauguration, TikTok would get shut off. Now there's an option for Joe Biden to give it a 90-day extension to find a buyer. What I know from TikTok is that there is no such thing as buying this. This isn't a commodity that you could just buy like this mouse or this computer or whatever. It would take three years to catch new coders up on just recoding to switch it over. There is no such thing as selling it. Plus,

Americans only make up 2% of the global user base. I want you to think about what you would do for 2% of your audience. Nothing. You wouldn't change your business for them. I want to ask you, though, I want to get back to that question, though. Why is there more conservative content? That's what I'm getting served up anyway. And why are there more hashtags for Trump than there are for Kamala, just like base level? Again, I think it's reactionary. You have...

People who are for Trump make for Trump. They're never going to use the Kamala hashtag. Even if they're talking about her, they're going to talk bad about her and they're going to use Trump 2024 as their hashtag. On the more liberal side, what you see is both liberal creators like, say, a Walter Matheson who is stitching constantly and correcting and trolling conservative influencers and using the Trump hashtag and the Kamala one. The only people who are using the Kamala hashtag are people who are making pro content for her.

in some way or favorable content for her. And the reason why I think Trump is seeing double digits in terms of like the hashtag is one, both sides use it. And two, there's a lot more low quality content that is pro-Trump. That's just like, that's not necessarily influencer content, right? It's like, it's a video about, it's not even political sometimes. Trump 2024 is something that people say,

as a threat in some ways, right? They do it because it makes them feel big and strong. I get it in my comments and I'll be talking about like my dog or something. It'll be like Trump 2024. I'm like, this didn't even have anything to do with that. It's just, it's like a Tourette or something. It's like something they say, they just say it. And it's like, here, I'm going to say this thing reactionarily because it makes me feel something or because it's just my go-to phrase. Yeah, I know. But I did write this story and they, I did have details from TikTok, right?

showing that the content was more favorable for Trump. This was back when Biden was around. Oh, when Biden was around? Are you kidding me? It was so hard. It was like two to one more favorable Trump to Biden content. 100%. And I think a lot of that had to do with Biden's policies on Gaza and Gaza being a leading topic on TikTok in particular for organizing. And, you know...

There was, I absolutely believe when it was Trump-Biden, I was very concerned about our ability to win in that matchup. This was fascinating. V, any last words? Who's winning the influencer war? I know you're pro-K. Oh, I think it's 50-50 in the influencer wars. I think it depends on like,

I think that the right-wing influencers tend to talk more and longer. They're more the podcast bros, long-form content, constantly streaming, things like that. And I think when you look at the Kamala content, they are more 90-second minute videos that are like, and she said this on a policy or this is why you should vote for her or something like that. So I think the style is different. But I would say...

There is an equal amount of conservative to liberal, if you want to call it that, content on the platform. And I think that proves that conservative voices aren't being banned or whatever the complaint often is. How do you think Facebook and Instagram are doing, like the meta world? We haven't really talked about that. Oh, boy. Well, they're so different because a couple of months ago, Zuck decided that there would be no political content online.

Allegedly, they weren't going to prioritize political content. I'm being shadow banned, basically. Nobody liked that. Nobody likes that. But that's what Zuck decided. And so that's how it went. I don't know that anybody can win the influencer wars. I think like anything in the world, it's going to come down to a handful of undecided people who are going to vote for what they think in the moment is going to make their life better. And it will be based on maybe friends and family's influence, maybe folks they work with influence. But I don't know that I am actually going to

I mean, maybe I'm going to change people's minds because I can give them really good information and they base their decision on that. But I don't know that the influencers are going to be the ones that make or break the election overall. But I do think that we're an important part of the media ecosphere. And like I've always said,

influencers, new media, sub stackers, podcasters. When we work in tandem with legacy and traditional media, that is when we have the most power and the most trust. I've always felt it was my responsibility to try and repair the relationship with legacy and traditional media because a lot of the information I get comes from your newsletter, right? I'm like Tara said this and this was really interesting or here's something from the Associated Press or here's the Washington. Thank you, I appreciate that.

Keeping me in business. Here's the, Taylor Lorenz just struck out on herself. Or here's a photo journalist from the Washington Post or Kent Nishmura is my go-to guy from LA Times has been for years. I love his coverage of Washington, DC. I'm not exactly legacy though. I do work for subscription. You've got Politico and stuff. You're, you're, you're, you're tapping it. You're tapping it. I came up through the path. You came up, you know, J school, the whole thing, but I'm saying, I think when we work together, we're stronger. Yeah.

I think when we work together, we're stronger. And I think that the infighting of like, it's the influencer's fault that journalists are getting laid off because they're not getting the ad revenue is the same way that men are blaming women for why they're making $18 an hour when they should be making $30. The common problem here is the top-down economics don't work. You're stealing our jobs, V. Please.

I have been offered jobs in legacy media. I'm sure. I am sure. Like I told you, I never wanted to be and I am not the one-stop shop for everybody. I'm not. There was resentment though at the DNC. I sensed it.

against the influencers. Oh my God. It was terrible. The resentment against the influencers was terrible. And people writing, uh, you know, for the wall street journal that they couldn't find a place to plug in their laptop, but we had sweets. We had sweets because way to win. And by we, I mean, 20 people within the 200 pool of influencers, everybody else was just wondering about, uh,

had a suite that they paid for the same way that any number of the donors paid for suites. And like any of those folks were in a room. I just wanted to get in. And then I managed to get in. You should have called me. I would have brought you. I was like, I feel like I'm adjacent. Okay. Can I get in? I did this the whole time. I got Charlotte climber up there. I was like,

come up. Of course you are. You're welcome. We'll see. Exactly. You're welcome. I got into your suite eventually. That's where I found you. Oh, yes. Remember? Yes. Oh my God. I'm such in a world. And I was like, hey, I heard you were on a yacht. Oh, yeah. Shut up. Oh my God. The yacht, which is that, you know, okay, let's talk about the yacht real quick. They said yacht party.

because the invite said yacht chic for influencers, right? And it was very like everybody wore white. It was one of those shitty little riverboats that goes around the Chicago River. The one that like the Dave Matthews band once dumped tons of crap

crap on one time. Like it wasn't a private yacht. It wasn't even a yacht. It was like a tourist boat that shows you the river. So anyway, there's a lot of mystery and there's a lot of they're getting something we're not getting. And at the end of the day, it comes down to we should be fighting the collaboration of news organizations, the ways re-empowering the writers unions to make sure that

you guys are being folks who are in the union are able to keep their jobs and have power. And I never wanted to be the one stop shop for everybody. I think community over competition always. And so I hope that I can continue to like be a model for that. And together we can make sure that the journalism industry stays up. No, you're the model for the future. I was just on the phone with like a very prominent CNN anchor. And we were just saying like, listen, we can't figure out TikTok. We're idiots. I'll tell you.

you. And she's like, I have 600 followers. I'm like, you have a show where millions of people are watching. And we're like, can we get a drink and just talk? I will help you though. That's the thing. I want to, I want to take a masterclass with you if that's possible. Anytime you want, you give me a call. I will show you how to tick tock. I'll teach you how to Dougie. It's

It is something that I think we need better information, right? If this is where, and again, remember that it comes back to not a lot of people have spare time. I used to love to sit down and watch a couple hours of the news, read the New York Times on the weekend or something. I don't have that time. And people don't have that time. You know when people watch me? The 20 minutes before they go to bed or when they're on the toilet.

Remember that. I do 90 seconds and that's how we get people. I watch you while I'm transporting around places. See, that's the thing though. People don't have the time to dedicate to the long form content or to the way that media had been and this 24 hour cycle. But that doesn't mean that we can't fix it, right? But we have to kind of stick together and I'll give you everything I got. I promote you all the time. I'm like, follow Tara. Like you do great work. I know you're the best. You're the reason I have a sad 6,000. I'm going to promote

you right now. You're going to see, we're going to boost those numbers. All right, V, this was amazing. And thank you so much for all of your insight and knowledge. We shall see how this all works out. I think this is going to be a topic that continues for a very long time. The strategy that these candidates take, a strategy that's never, you know, been done before. It's

beta testing something on the national scale. So we'll see what happens. I know I'll either see you at inauguration or in the journalist prison camps that we should. It'll go either way. Yeah. All right. Cheers to you.

That was another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. I'm your host, Tara Palmieri. I want to thank my producers, Christopher Sutton and Connor Nevins. If you like this show, please subscribe, rate it, share it with your friends. If you like my reporting, please go to puck.news slash Tara Palmieri and sign up for my newsletter, The Best and the Brightest. You can use the discount code Tara20 for 20% off the subscription at Puck. See you again on Tuesday.