cover of episode Trump’s Ex-Border Chief Ken Cuccinelli on Deporting 20 Million People

Trump’s Ex-Border Chief Ken Cuccinelli on Deporting 20 Million People

2025/1/14
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Somebody's Gotta Win with Tara Palmeri

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#trump's political influence#political discourse#political influence#transportation and logistics People
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Ken Cuccinelli
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Tara Palmeri
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@Tara Palmeri : 我对特朗普政府计划大规模遣返1000万到2000万非法移民的计划表示怀疑。这需要巨大的资源投入,包括飞机、拘留中心、法律程序等等。仅仅遣返100万人就需要每天动用50架大型喷气式飞机,持续365天。这还不包括身份识别、逮捕、拘留以及漫长的法律程序。整个过程复杂且成本高昂,是巨大的后勤噩梦。此外,遣返行动还会对美国社会产生深远的影响,包括生活成本、社区关系等等。 在与特朗普政府时期国土安全部二把手@Ken Cuccinelli 的对话中,我了解到特朗普政府上任第一天不会进行大规模遣返。Cuccinelli承认特朗普的一些说法有些夸张,但他也表示如果政府愿意,可以采取很多措施来遣返非法移民,甚至在第一任期内就能做得更多。他承认,这将是美国历史上最大规模的国内行动,而且过程可能会很混乱。 Ken Cuccinelli: 我认为特朗普上任第一天会签署所有必要的总统令来启动大规模遣返,但这并不意味着ICE探员会立即遣返数百万甚至上千万人。这将是一个循序渐进的过程,首先会对那些已有遣返令的人员和罪犯下手。边境安全将得到迅速加强,边境巡逻人员将从‘迎接者’转变为‘执法者’,军队也会被部署到边境地区以阻止非法入境。使用军队是合法的,之前政府不愿这样做是出于形象考虑。法院也无法阻止政府在边境部署军队。墨西哥长期以来违反国际法,允许其领土被用于危害美国,美国有权自卫。 关于遣返的成本,我个人认为880亿美元的估计过高,实际成本可能在100亿到150亿美元之间。修建边境墙的成本可能在50亿到100亿美元之间。我们会优先遣返那些已有遣返令的人员,大约140万人,以及另外50到60万罪犯。我们会提高遣返效率,减少每人遣返成本。加强工作许可证发放和职场执法也会导致许多非法移民自愿离境。政府可能会与其他国家合作遣返非法移民,也可能不经允许直接遣返。 在头100天内,民众最先感受到的是边境安全得到迅速加强,非法毒品价格上涨。大规模遣返行动将逐步展开。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What are the logistical challenges of deporting 10 to 20 million people, as proposed by Donald Trump?

Deporting 10 to 20 million people would require identifying individuals, obtaining arrest warrants, detaining them, and processing them through immigration courts, which could take years. It would also require significant resources, including detention centers, buses, planes, and legal personnel. To deport 1 million people, for example, it would take 50 jumbo jets filled with people every day for a year, totaling 365 days of continuous effort. The cost is estimated at $88 billion annually for 1 million deportations, with a total of $906 billion over 10 years.

What role does the military play in Trump's proposed border enforcement?

The military would be deployed to the border to assist in stopping illegal crossings between legal ports of entry. Unlike previous administrations where the military provided reconnaissance and support, Trump's plan involves using the military to actively interdict and turn people away at the border. This is legal under Article II of the Constitution, which grants the president authority to deploy the military for national security purposes.

How does Ken Cuccinelli view the cost of mass deportations?

Ken Cuccinelli believes the cost of mass deportations is significantly lower than the $88 billion estimate provided by the American Immigration Council. He estimates the cost to be around $10 to $15 billion over multiple years, with initial higher costs due to infrastructure setup. He also emphasizes efficiency improvements, such as targeting groups of illegal immigrants during raids rather than individuals, to reduce costs.

What is the potential impact of mass deportations on the U.S. economy?

Mass deportations could lead to higher wages for low-income Americans by reducing competition for jobs. However, it could also increase the cost of goods, particularly in industries like agriculture and hospitality that rely heavily on immigrant labor. While some argue that this would benefit American workers, others contend that the increased costs of goods could offset wage gains.

What are the challenges of deporting individuals to countries that refuse to accept them?

Deporting individuals to countries like Cuba, Venezuela, or Nicaragua, which may refuse to accept their citizens, presents significant logistical challenges. Potential solutions include negotiating with third countries like Guatemala to accept deportees or using military bases like Guantanamo Bay as staging areas. In extreme cases, the U.S. might forcibly return individuals without the cooperation of their home countries.

How does Ken Cuccinelli propose to make mass deportations more efficient?

Cuccinelli suggests targeting groups of illegal immigrants during raids rather than individuals, which would increase efficiency. He also advocates for stricter workplace enforcement to deter employers from hiring undocumented workers, which could lead to self-deportation. Additionally, he supports using government-owned planes for deportations to reduce costs and improve logistics.

What is the expected timeline for implementing Trump's deportation plan?

The deportation plan would begin with immediate border enforcement on day one of Trump's presidency, including sealing the border between legal ports of entry. Large-scale deportations would follow, with a focus on individuals who already have deportation orders or criminal records. The process would likely take years to fully implement, with initial efforts targeting the most efficient and high-impact areas.

Shownotes Transcript

Tara is joined by ex-deputy secretary of Homeland Security Ken Cuccinelli to talk about the viability of Donald Trump’s ambitious immigration reforms on the eve of his inauguration. They discuss the legality of using the military to execute mass deportations, debate the effects they will have on the American people, and break down the national and international logistics of implementing such a large scale plan.

For more of Tara’s reporting, please sign up for her newsletter, 'The Best and the Brightest,' at puck.news/tarapalmeri and use the discount code TARA20.

Host: Tara Palmeri

Guest: Ken Cuccinelli

Producer: Chris Sutton

Production Supervision: Conor Nevins

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