Deporting 10 to 20 million people would require identifying individuals, obtaining arrest warrants, detaining them, and processing them through immigration courts, which could take years. It would also require significant resources, including detention centers, buses, planes, and legal personnel. To deport 1 million people, for example, it would take 50 jumbo jets filled with people every day for a year, totaling 365 days of continuous effort. The cost is estimated at $88 billion annually for 1 million deportations, with a total of $906 billion over 10 years.
The military would be deployed to the border to assist in stopping illegal crossings between legal ports of entry. Unlike previous administrations where the military provided reconnaissance and support, Trump's plan involves using the military to actively interdict and turn people away at the border. This is legal under Article II of the Constitution, which grants the president authority to deploy the military for national security purposes.
Ken Cuccinelli believes the cost of mass deportations is significantly lower than the $88 billion estimate provided by the American Immigration Council. He estimates the cost to be around $10 to $15 billion over multiple years, with initial higher costs due to infrastructure setup. He also emphasizes efficiency improvements, such as targeting groups of illegal immigrants during raids rather than individuals, to reduce costs.
Mass deportations could lead to higher wages for low-income Americans by reducing competition for jobs. However, it could also increase the cost of goods, particularly in industries like agriculture and hospitality that rely heavily on immigrant labor. While some argue that this would benefit American workers, others contend that the increased costs of goods could offset wage gains.
Deporting individuals to countries like Cuba, Venezuela, or Nicaragua, which may refuse to accept their citizens, presents significant logistical challenges. Potential solutions include negotiating with third countries like Guatemala to accept deportees or using military bases like Guantanamo Bay as staging areas. In extreme cases, the U.S. might forcibly return individuals without the cooperation of their home countries.
Cuccinelli suggests targeting groups of illegal immigrants during raids rather than individuals, which would increase efficiency. He also advocates for stricter workplace enforcement to deter employers from hiring undocumented workers, which could lead to self-deportation. Additionally, he supports using government-owned planes for deportations to reduce costs and improve logistics.
The deportation plan would begin with immediate border enforcement on day one of Trump's presidency, including sealing the border between legal ports of entry. Large-scale deportations would follow, with a focus on individuals who already have deportation orders or criminal records. The process would likely take years to fully implement, with initial efforts targeting the most efficient and high-impact areas.
Tara is joined by ex-deputy secretary of Homeland Security Ken Cuccinelli to talk about the viability of Donald Trump’s ambitious immigration reforms on the eve of his inauguration. They discuss the legality of using the military to execute mass deportations, debate the effects they will have on the American people, and break down the national and international logistics of implementing such a large scale plan.
For more of Tara’s reporting, please sign up for her newsletter, 'The Best and the Brightest,' at puck.news/tarapalmeri and use the discount code TARA20.
Host: Tara Palmeri
Guest: Ken Cuccinelli
Producer: Chris Sutton
Production Supervision: Conor Nevins
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