The GOP Debate Olympics: The Vivek Show, the Nikki Smackdown, and the Great Ron Escape
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Here's the deal. Our listeners get 20% off their first purchase at Viori.com slash Simmons. Once again, V-U-O-R-I.com slash Simmons. Hi, this is Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent and welcome back to my show, Somebody's Gotta Win.

I'm in Milwaukee for the GOP debates, and this is my post-debate wrap-up, where I'll be calling out the biggest winners and losers of the night. I'll break down who landed the sharpest attacks, who elevated their stature in the race, and who had that breakout moment with Star Axios reporter Alex Thompson.

You'll also hear from surrogates behind the scenes in the spin room, like Donald Trump Jr., who told me who he thought his father might pick as his running mate. Then I'll check in with the beating heart of the New Hampshire primary voter, you know, the ones who actually decide who becomes the nominee. I'll call GOP consultant and donor asset Matthew Bartlett, who's watching the debate from a cigar shop in downtown Nashua. He has some pretty interesting feedback on who they were excited about in the room.

I am here with Axios star reporter Alex Thompson, who is in Milwaukee with me in the spin room. We are all spun up, but I think it was pretty clear who won the debate.

Alex? Well, if you talk to anyone in the spin room, they all won the debate. Well, pretty much. Every single person, basically, you say, who won the debate? They were like, we did. And our strategy was perfect. Our candidate made no mistakes. And anyone that says otherwise is shit. You basically are the dupe. Right. I would disagree with that. I actually think that Vivek Ramaswamy won the debate.

By way of being the center of attention and getting attacked, he seemed more dominant on the stage than anyone else.

Clearly, every single candidate was the most scared of the bank. That's why they kept attacking him. He was attacked more than any other candidate on that stage tonight. He was attacked by Mike Pence at least four times that I counted. He got attacked by Nikki Haley on foreign policy. He got attacked by Chris Christie for sounding like chat GPT. He also called him an amateur. Yeah, but isn't that great for somebody who is...

kind of like pulling right behind Ron DeSantis. Ron DeSantis was the presumed number one, number two, as I call them, because they're all really number two behind Trump, very far behind Trump. So to get that kind of moment in the sun is a great moment for Ameswami. So if we were going to, you know, give out medals, I would give him the gold medal, mainly for hogging the performance, hijacking the entire debate and making it all about him. And the rest of them were just like,

hey, youngin, quiet, you don't know what you're talking about. And the kid just completely owned the show in a way that Trump did, but he was kind of a surrogate for Trump. He basically was a stand-in for Trump. He was a Trump avatar. Oh, he was. And also, like, Chet GBT is like, I mean, maybe Chet GBT would be a pretty good president. I don't know if it's like the insult Chris Christie thought it was going to be. But also, I mean, to your point, he...

Like Vivek was relished being in the center of it. If you told anybody a year ago that the center of attention in the first Republican debate for the 2014 nomination was going to be Vivek Ramaswamy, everyone would have said who? Yeah. You'd be like, what? The whole thing's going to be about him? What? This guy? I don't even know him. And he starts off like talking about a revolution. And listen, I'm not saying this because I agree with anything he said on stage. I'm just saying this subject, like from just from production, performance,

command of the stage, he won. Yes, and none of us are talking about whether or not he's right or wrong. We're talking about sort of the performance art, which the fact of the matter is that

There's a reason why Donald Trump won. One, it's because this increasingly resembles a reality television show. The production event of it, they had drones flying inside the theater so you could get really good camera angles, just like in sports and NBA and football games nowadays. And Vivek really just embodied that. He also brought, I think, perhaps positive or negative, he really brought college debater energy to the entire thing. Right. Basically, he just wanted to

He actually looked like he was having fun. Yes. That was the difference. Do you agree with me, though, that he was gold? Or would you give him another ranking if this was like the Olympics? You don't have to agree with me, Alex. You can say, Tara, you are totally wrong. In fact, I believe the winner of the debate was Mike Pence for making an impassioned cry about...

how he was upholding the constitution. And I actually felt like that was a very powerful moment, but I don't know that he won the debate. And that's, that's your call. Who do you think won the debate? Well, I, maybe you'd give Pence the gold for like in American history, like for legacy, but in terms of, I, you know, I know it's better if we disagree for podcasting purposes, but in this case, I agree.

That does get does get the gold because there's no way that anyone even six months ago would have predicted that he would have this sort of night, that he would be at the center of the stage. And I bet you his poll numbers will only go up after this. And the reason they attacked him, I think. Well, why do we think he attacked? I'm just still wondering why they didn't attack Ron DeSantis. Yeah.

That is the big mystery of the debate. It was funny. I was talking to Ron DeSantis, his newly installed 35-year-old campaign manager in the spin room. And his only comment about the vet is that he thinks the American people wished he had the microphone a little bit less tonight than he did, which I thought was a little bit passive-aggressive, a little elbowed. And I think even though they were happy with it, clearly he's not going to get the story out of this debate. But it is striking, to your point,

Like Rhonda Zandis was a leader coming into tonight. Yeah. He'll probably still be the leader going into tomorrow. Yeah, but why wasn't he attacked? So for that reason, I give him the silver for not being attacked at all. I think that helps him with donors. I don't know. You're doing a terrible podcast because I also would say that he got the silver. Right. He got the silver for not being attacked. And he's...

He didn't do anything too obnoxious. Like he was stiff and tilted and he was robotic like he always is, but he didn't do anything like wipe his nose or cock his head or just act like a total jerk. He smiled, it was weird. He wasn't particularly compelling, but when you are pulling ahead of everyone else, you kind of just need to like stand still on your own and not be attacked. That's my take on that. But I don't know, what do you think of Ron DeSantis' performance?

He does sort of have that like passport photo smile energy. And there was that one, the one moment that stood out to me and it was interesting, Trump's campaign really seized upon it. You know, they were asked about, about, it was about

prosecutions, the indictments. And it was one of those like sort of gimmicky hand raising questions. Right. And, you know, a bunch of people raised their hands defending Trump. And DeSantis sort of looked left to see who raised their hand. And then he sort of half raised his hand. Anyway, it was just like one of those things where...

Oh, yeah. I heard Matt Gaetz saying something like, oh, the half-raised. Yeah. The half-raised. Yeah. So we're giving Ron DeSantis the Olympic silver medal for not getting crushed. Yeah.

which was weird. And then we're giving Vivek the gold medal for getting Crush, which just elevated his prominence and for handling it pretty well. And for just kind of being smooth and slick and giving the best performance. Bronze. I'm going to let you go first on this one. Who's your bronze medalist? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. For bronze, I would say Nikki Haley. Oh man, I was going to say the same thing. What? What?

I'm serious. I'm not stealing your idea. So you first, though. OK. I think Nikki, first of all, so there are three candidates that really went after Rebecca. It was Mike Pence. It was Chris Christie. And it was Nikki Haley. I thought Nikki Haley by far had like gave gave him the best punch. She landed it. Yeah. Like if this was the triple axel, she landed it beautifully. She said, you don't know anything about foreign policy. And the truth is, he doesn't. And everyone knows that.

but you just hear him on stage and he's kind of, it's like politics is a movement and a feeling. He was giving off movements and feelings and all of that. And she was able to sort of like land it and be like the hard crush of the truth. No, here are the facts. This is the truth. You don't know anything about the Iron Dome. Don't you know we pay for the Iron Dome? Or basically is what she was saying. And it was sort of like, oh, this is reality. We're not all floating on cloud nine with Vivek Ramaswamy.

Plus, whenever she spoke, she was extremely articulate, coherent. She made facts. She really, like, as a political journalist, I'm sure you felt the same way. She spoke the truth. It's like, if you think you're going to be president and make a national abortion ban, it's a fantasy. It's sky high. It's not happening. And I thought, I thought you had to

like a pretty command performance. Yeah, she brought the reality show back to reality. She was sort of presented herself as like an adult in the room, but not in a boring way. Now, you know, I think like Rhonda Sandis and Tim Scott, they both sort of presented themselves as adults in the room and basically were like, sort of don't hurt me. Right. And she was like, no, I'll go toe to toe, you know, and wanted to, you know, she picked her spots, but she, but she picked them up.

I also liked her Margaret Thatcher line. I mean, I'm sorry, girl power, but I really did. I thought she landed it. And I feel like boomers will love that shit.

I think you're absolutely got boomers that will love that shit. I have to say, I've heard it. I've been on the trail of her a few times, and I've heard it so many times that now it just presents cringe to me. Okay, got it. But I agree. There are a lot of women and a lot of boomers that were watching this on Fox News tonight that were like, yeah. Right. And the one person who did absolutely nothing for me that I thought might actually draw some interest was Tim Scott. I mean, to me, he was the biggest loser of the debate because...

I feel like he didn't break through at all. I got no feeling from him. Tim Scott is like watching milk dry. I cannot... If you told me I had to go see a Tim Scott town hall, fireside chat, I'd be like, what? Please, God, no. I don't know. To me, just...

There was nothing about Tim Scott. His policy proposals, I mean, I get the story, it's compelling, but you've heard the story so many times, it's like every politician was so poor. Who was poor? We were all poor. Everybody was poor, you know? And it's like, I get it, but it's just that it didn't do it for me. He just seemed very, he seemed scared up there.

Yeah, well, it was striking. I was talking to some of his surrogates, surrogates afterward, and they were like, you know, what do you think did well? And one of the surrogates was like, he delivered a really good closing.

And it's like, oh, God, no one's everyone's already drank enough beers by then. Like no one's paying attention. Right. And it's like if you're surrogate, that's like the nicest thing they're saying. I feel like maybe it didn't go as well as you had hoped. The thing about Tim Scott, though, that is he didn't have to have a great debate this time. And, you know, he he did sort of this.

I would call it a gimmick where he basically raised a ton of money for a Senate race and he transferred over the presidential race. So he has more money on hand than almost any other campaign. Whereas like Nikki Haley has a cash crunch. She needed to have a moment. She needed it. Tim Scott can sort of like, you know, wait, just like bob along and you know, he might end up picking his spots later, but I completely agree. He, he just seemed like he, it didn't seem like he totally wanted to be there. Um,

And he certainly didn't want to have an actual debate with me. Right. One of his spin room people said, you know, he was the adult in the room. It's like, I don't know if people are necessarily voting just for the adult in the room. You know what I mean? Well, Nikki Haley, I thought, was an adult in the room, too. But she did it by also having an actual disagreement and like a debate with somebody. Right. OK. Biggest loser. I mean, beside Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burke. Oh, poor Doug. Yeah.

Oh, God. Like, uh, towards the killings, right? Oh, God. Literally limping off the stage. Yeah, I mean, it's like sort of the Mamba mentality, Kobe Bryant thing. He's like, I'm gonna go out there and, you know, still play, even though... Doug Burgum for Ag Secretary. Yeah.

played by Eugene Levy on SNL. But seriously, like, that was kind of a long shot. He's a rich guy. He could keep going if he wants to, right? You know, I think, if I were to say the biggest loser, and some of it was just because he had such high expectations as a debater, I was a little... I thought Chris Christie didn't have, like, a really great debate. Yeah, he was underwhelming. Yeah. Like, I thought I was, like... I was really... You know, he's so full of, like, great insults, and I thought, like...

You know, Vivek sort of threw it back in his face in a way that he didn't seem like totally ready for. Right. Actually, Vivek may have been as good at debating as Chris Christie. Yes. And I don't think Chris Christie's been on a stage with many people like that before. Right. I mean, Trump, maybe. Yeah. But Trump's a little ham-fisted with his debating, whereas I felt like Vivek was even a little bit more slick in some ways.

Yeah, I mean, Vivek is so fast. Right. He is. He's a really fast thinker. Yeah, Chris Christie just didn't— I don't think he made a lot of great points, per se. And I don't think people are buying Jersey. And I say this as a former Jersey girl. And actually, you're always a Jersey girl if you're from Jersey.

I don't think people are buying Jersey. I'm sorry. It was a blue state. He was governor how many years ago? It's been a long time. Yeah, I think like talking about his gubernatorial record and everything else. I mean, I thought he landed like a few punches here and there. But really, you know, he had like that one line about Chachi BT. And then, I don't know, he sort of just like baited him to the background. And it is clear, you know, I think Vivek had like this line where he's like,

where you basically said like your entire campaign is about, it's just about grievance against Trump. And I feel, and you know, it was obviously part of the debate, but I do feel that he was at his most compelling and his clearly like he had his emotion in it when he's just talking about Trump. He didn't, it didn't feel like he had the oomph when he was talking about other stuff. Let's talk about Mike Pence. What to make of Mike Pence?

He gave the impassioned moment we all wanted him to give nationally, right? It was his, like, legacy moment. Do you know what it was like? I was defending the Constitution. My life was at risk. He had all the people on the stage saying, you were right. And I'm sure he felt, in a lot of ways, vindicated and great. But I don't know. He was also booed.

booed a lot on stage. He and Chris Christie were booed a lot, right? Yes. I mean, it was, to your point, it was interesting. It was like angry pats. You know, he has this reputation for being, you know, a sick fan who just is pliable and did whatever Trump wanted. And clearly that wasn't the case of January 6th. And I thought it was interesting to me because, yes, he was booed a lot. Chris Christie was a lot. It was also interesting that basically everyone was booed when they said that

Mike Pence did the right thing on January 6th. Right. And like Tim Scott also, I mean, they all did it very quickly. Like Tim Scott's like, yes, he did the right thing, but also. Yeah. Ron DeSantis didn't even really want to say it. Yeah, he's like, Mike did the right thing, but also. Also, Fox really did not give a lot of follow-up questions to DeSantis. They really did not hammer him on a

They did not hammer him on what he would do with Trump in terms of pardoning him. They really had to drag it out of him whether Mike Pence did the right thing. And he, even the first question, he didn't get a follow-up. They had the young question. Oh, yeah, Youth for America. Yeah, having a Youth for America question. It's just like,

I just felt like Fox was not in it to actually really grill Ron DeSantis. I mean, they had all the facts ready to go on Chris Christie's legacy. Where was it on Ron DeSantis? Well, as you know, the Trump people are going to see conspiracy in this because the Trump people are convinced with some justification that...

I'm not saying right as in you are right, but...

But maybe they didn't really have a lot of follow-up questions for Vivek either. That's a good point. I mean, they really... That's a really good... I wonder what the thinking was. I'm sure they also wanted just to get everyone to talk, but it was interesting that the two top polling leaders didn't get... They obviously got some incoming from the other candidates. They didn't get really grilled and polled. Exactly. Okay, so what do you think was the biggest throwaway line of the debate just to get some sort of attention, like totally planned...

You know what? Vivek Ramaswamy used the host of MSNBC line that was in Ron DeSantis' debate briefing pack to use on Chris Christie. He used that line on Chris Christie, which I thought was interesting. Oh, I completely missed it. Chris Christie, honest to God, your claim that Donald Trump is motivated by vengeance and grievance would be a lot more credible if your entire campaign were not based on vengeance and grievance against one man.

So let's talk about the top three debate Hail Marys. You know, just kind of like these wacky lines that have been prepared. They're hoping would stick and turn into memes. It was interesting that Chris Christie tried to compare Vivek to Obama saying, you know, a guy with a funny name who's young and slick who didn't know what he was doing. Right.

And then Vivek was pretty quick back and said, yeah, like that time you gave him a hug on the beach, right? And helped his reelection. What do you think was another kind of long shot lob that was thrown? I hate to give Vivek more credit on terms of the Crips, but when Nikki Haley delivered the line on foreign policy that he clearly was ready for, he was like, enjoy your future job on the board of Raytheon.

And then he licked his finger and stuck it up to the wind being like, oh, they just go wherever the wind blows on foreign policy, right? It was pretty rich. What else was another one? Oh, Vivek used a line that DeSantis' team had prepared for him to use on Chris Christie to say that he was just auditioning for a job on MSNBC. And Vivek used it instead. And you know what? I'm sure the average debate watcher did not know that it was Ron DeSantis' super PAC that was training him for that line.

I don't think Ron DeSantis actually threw any Hail Marys or fought anyone on the stage. It was kind of crazy. No, it was complete defense play. I mean, he played defense the entire time. But no one was even attacking him. He was just like a kind of robot, like a stick on the stage. Yeah, took zero chance. But he didn't have to. I think they were lucky. I really do. Yeah, I mean, well...

I was talking to their campaign all this last weekend. They were totally expecting that they were just going to be piled on, that it was going to be constant Ron attacks. I mean, there were people, I think people that really support Ron, that were scared that tonight was going to potentially be the end of the Ron DeSantis campaign. And the fact that it wasn't, they feel, was the best case scenario they could have gotten. Okay. Whose campaign do you think will be...

Sadly over. Let's rank them after this. I mean, Asa Hutchinson, you know, poor guy. I mean, like, you know, two term governor, you know, from Arkansas, you know, in another era would be considered a serious candidate with the right comb over. No, that's not really working. He's also just like not the generational. Listen, Trump's not a generational shift.

But he feels like an old school politician, especially with like the white hair and the way he speaks slowly, got the southern twang. He's like an old school Republican. Yes. He also is saying that the party should go back to pre-Trump. The party... Long past that. Yeah, that doesn't exist. There's only the next iteration of whatever came after Trump.

Okay, so bye-bye, Aza. We'll miss you. Doug Burgum, obviously. He's super rich. Okay, so he can keep going. He can limp along for a while. He's going to keep going. How hard is that? He's got a torn Achilles or something like that? They said during playing basketball at the staff meeting.

Okay, so he will be limping along on the campaign trail, maybe being wheeled around on lots of painkillers. So he's going to say crazy shit. There was a talk on the other campaigns about how ADA accessible the stage is. Oh my God, I don't mean to laugh. This is horrible. They were like, if he's going to be in a wheelchair, like also, you know, how can they get him up there physically? Yeah.

And then are they going to remove the podium? What are they going to do with the camera angles? It was like, you know, they obviously put him in a boot, so he was able to do it. And he also, you know, just spread it. He was in the spin room afterwards still standing. Okay, so perhaps Doug Burgum. I think Pence. I mean, that's always been a mystery to me. Who is...

Who is the Pence donor? And how long does he have? Because as I've been saying this, you know this, we all know this, campaigns die because they run out of money. Who is the Pence donor? And who is the Pence voter? I mean, all I heard every time he spoke was booze. I didn't get a lot of enthusiasm from Pence. And that's not to say he didn't have a command performance. I actually think his performance was command for his legacy. I'm not sure it was for the Republican Party or the base of the party. Yeah, I mean, I...

There is no clear constituency with Mike Pence because many of the Trump voters are not open to him. You know, they think that he would have both betrayed the president and

and by following the Constitution on January 6th. And then the other voters are looking for an alternative, someone that maybe isn't as tied to Trump. Because you have to remember, it wasn't just the Mike Pence to buy Trump on January 6th. He was also so compliant with everything Trump did. So there's no way... He's both anti-Trump and pro-Trump. And the party just... It's unclear if you can unite behind it. And to your point about him dropping out...

can he make the next debate stage? You have to get 20,000 more donors to make the next debate stage. He barely got here. I think he only qualified like two weeks before. But he did have a good debate. I mean, this was probably, you know, talking about angry Pence. This is just like, you know, forthright. Dark Pence. Yeah.

Yeah, so he had his angry moment, he showed his nerve, he showed his guts. But at the same time, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, they all took their shots at the prior administration. And they were essentially taking shots at Pence, right, at the same time. And Pence is trying to claim ownership for the prior administration. And they're all saying like, well, you didn't finish the wall, you didn't fire Fauci, you didn't do Chris Wray, how can you? He sort of got slammed on both ends.

He was slammed for defying Trump and then he was slammed for carrying out his orders. He was in no man's land, in my opinion, if you're really paying attention to the back and forth and what the, you know, what the other contenders on the debate stage were saying. I felt like Pence was getting punched from both ends. Yeah, no man's land, I think, is the right way to put it. Okay. Nikki Haley? Yeah.

I thought it was really interesting to your point that she actually criticized Trump a few times. She said that he's the most unpopular politician in America. Yeah. She also criticized him on the debt. And I thought there were some ways to your point that she was able to separate Trump from Trump on electability and on the debt in ways that I think the GOP base is probably a little bit worried. Right. I was actually surprised to hear her take those stands because a lot of these other

Politicians are afraid. They're afraid to alienate the base. That's why you didn't hear Ron DeSantis really attacking Trump directly by name. And he played it pretty safe. He always does it implicitly. It's like, we should have fired Fauci. Right. Instead of Trump should have fired Fauci. It's we.

Yeah, and I mean, Vivek Ramaswamy was basically a stand-in for Trump. I, you know, asked Donald Trump Jr. about this and who he thought had the best performance, and he said that Vivek Ramaswamy, well, you can listen to it here. You know, I don't know. I thought he had a standout performance. I mean, I think Vivek did what Ron DeSantis needed to do, but he's...

Stood there like a scripted wallflower. Anything that he said that resonated with the crowd was literally stealing from the Trump campaign. It's a nation in decline. I'm like, I wonder who's been saying that for, what, years? My father. That's his line, and Ron DeSantis said it 15 times tonight. He's not capable of the original thought. He's capable of regurgitating in a robotic way what other people feed him. And that's what I was saying to some of the people here earlier, which is,

People really like Ron DeSantis when they saw the five second clip of Ron DeSantis dunking on a local reporter that didn't know what they were talking about. And an influencer packaged it in a way to make it look like he's really, but you see him on the stage for three or four seconds. You see him on a bar pouring a beer and trying to have interpersonal communications with people and that's gone. There's no skill, there's no understanding of that. As opposite as Trump is in many ways from his base, he's a billionaire from New York City.

When he's in that room, when he's in that Dairy Queen, when they ask him to pray with him,

It's real and people get it. It's an emotional thing for them. Ron needed to show some of that, not just regurgitate the talking points and or steal Trump's policies. Again, whether it's a nation decline, whether it's sending the military to deal with the border, these are all things that Trump said months ago. Apparently they're working, so Ron tried to make them his own and pretend that they were. Those are the only things that landed that he said, and the rest he basically got bullied, honestly, between Mike Pence and Vivek.

And clearly they were happy to have him on the stage. He was essentially a stand-in for Trump. I asked him if they would ever pick him as vice president. He said he didn't know. So I also asked him if he might be his father's own vice president. And he said, that's not possible. Well, that's not clear, actually. But we do live in a world where anything can happen, right?

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I've been looking at predicted, OK, throughout the day just to see if there have been any substantial bumps, anyone really going up or down based on their performance in the debate. I looked at it earlier this morning and Trump was up. Predict it, by the way. It's a gambling site for politics. Right. And so the question is, who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? Trump is, you know, the highest price, 58 percent.

way above all the others. Vivek this morning was about 18 cents. Ronnitandis was right behind him at 16, then Nikki Haley at six, Tim Scott at six, and then Chris Christie at six. After the debate, I'm refreshing my page and you know, it's kind of the same. Hasn't really moved at all. Their ranking is the same. The only person who's gone down is Tim Scott and Chris Christie and weirdly Glenn Youngkin has moved up.

Is Rupert Murdoch playing this game? Is he investing in Predict It? Flynn Youngkin was not on the debate stage, but a lot of donors are really into him, especially Bush-era donors. I mean, not only is he not on the debate stage, he's not in the race. He's not in the race.

Although I do believe he'll be a dark horse, or at least a lot of people around him hope that. He probably won't be. He's told everyone he wants to focus on the Virginia state legislature as a one-term governor. Very weird. But Nikki Haley stayed consistent. She's pretty far behind. I do think she had a really good performance, but...

I don't know if she can move. I also wonder how long she can stay in the race. Do you think she makes it to Iowa? I mean, that's the real question. I mean, she's obviously doing everything she can to make it there. But it's going to be, I mean, even though she had a good debate performance and we obviously gave her the bronze, I don't know how much that's going to help her make it all the way there. As you said, like campaigns don't end, they go broke. Yeah, exactly. And by the way, she's the bronze, which makes her the fourth place.

you know, puts her in fourth, which isn't really bronze. What's like sub-bronze, like runner up to bronze? - Yeah, I guess runner up. - Because at the end of the day, it's still Trump. I mean, and I don't think this debate really made anyone think that any of these people could beat Trump. - No, I mean, I think all these candidates, essentially they're all making, most of them are making some sort of bet, which is all we have to do is become second place. And then by Iowa, New Hampshire,

and then everyone else will be forced to drop out and then we can win a one-on-one race with Trump because he's unpopular and that's like it's quite the bank shot right um but that is basically based on how they were acting tonight that is essentially the bet they were all making you know in terms of predicted the one thing I do find interesting is that even though Ron Sanders is the clear second in every single poll with no one that close Vivek is in second and

the victim market. So clearly, the people that are betting on politics think that Vivek has a better chance of being the nominee than Ron Sander. Honestly, after watching the debate, I kind of think the same thing. I'm still a little skeptical. You're torn. Yeah. I would say skeptical. I think Vivek has sort of like...

It reminds me a lot of Pete Buttigieg. That's what everyone says. I was getting that text. He's GOP's Pete Buttigieg. Or is he Andrew Yang? Question mark. I think it's much more like Pete, including the fact that clearly all these candidates not only are trying to diss him strategically, they all seem to really dislike him.

Oh, yeah, they hate his guts. They really resent him and his Harvard mouth. And they really just prefer that he did not exist. It's like this wise guy kid, like, shut up, you know, know your place. It happened in 2020 with Pete, right? Like, Amy Klobuchar just, like, at one point was like, do you just think I'm dumb? You know, like,

There was that huge anti-Pete energy. But he also was so charming to the Iowa crowd. So I think primary voters loved him. Yeah. So I think he's going to be a force. I'm still I would still think that Ron is much better chance. But yeah, that's why we have elections. Right. I guess it was kind of a shit show overall, though. Do you think this whole performance was good for Trump, bad for the GOP?

Well, it definitely was good for Trump in that I didn't see anything change in terms of the current dynamic. No one came out a clear winner, really. And he at the moment, if nothing changes, he's going to be the nominee. So in that case, it was good. And the bad part for Trump is that he's going to turn himself over to authorities tomorrow for trying to overturn the Georgia election. So, you know, sort of a wash. Yeah.

That's true. But I guess I'd say, like, anytime you have, you know, I think it's always probably good for a party that you have, like, sort of a highly rated event like this. I mean, I guess we're going to find out what the ratings are, but I don't know. I feel like it was, like, a pretty...

i don't have a really hot take on it it feels like a good debate yeah i got some texts from some democratic operatives saying they're already um future casting a vivek ramaswamy kamala harris debate vp debate i could see it happening that would be some i that would probably be higher rated than uh than a trump oh yeah i'm sure of it what do you think

was the big moment of the debate, though? If you had that one takeaway from this debate, what would be the moment for you? Or was it just a series of messy moments? Yeah, I mean, I feel we've said some versions of this, but like...

The big moment of the debate was how everyone just wanted to attack the debate. So it was a series of moments, but there was a true line through all of them. I think that was symbolic of the fact that his rise has really freaked out some of these campaigns. Right. And the fact that he was attacked so frequently actually elevated him and it made him the winner of the debate. Yeah.

No way. And because even though he was inexperienced, he didn't... I don't feel he... Even if you disagree with his policy stances, you think that he was completely wrong. He didn't come across as an inexperienced debater. He didn't seem like he was out of his depth. They didn't know what he was talking about. No, his policies seem thin, though. He doesn't really have strong policy views. They're not backed up. You mean in terms of... I mean, I...

I feel like he like, I know he he definitely has. I think you're right that he has surface level understanding. Basically, he can he can he's a very good talker. Right. I didn't come across as left, but he he can definitely do a talking point on any topic. Yes, that's that was my feeling from him. I felt like actually the other candidates were able to sort of say, like, I've actually been on the ground in Ukraine. I know what it's like there. And I think that he wasn't really able to do that. And they seem to have more of a command.

Whereas he was able to kind of have more of a showman's like force and kind of like sizzle. But it's hard to say, like Donald Trump had zero command of what he was talking about. It was just his gut instincts, his like, you know, his sizzle, his entertainment, his the fact that he was enjoying himself on the stage, which Vivek was clearly enjoying himself on the stage, too. And you just have to wonder, like, how much of it is the feeling that this candidate is giving off and how much of it is.

you know, their policy chops and their ability to pass legislation and that they were able to balance the budgets in their states or they kept or they were covid warriors. Like, how much does that really matter anymore? I don't know how much the elect the primary voter in the GOP really cares about policy. It's like anything Trump taught us that they really don't. I mean, it's such an interesting point, because especially I also think about like 2020 Democratic primary.

where performance art didn't, the performance of everything does matter a lot. And yet they still nominated Joe Biden, who was one of the worst debaters of that cycle because at the end of the day, they wanted to win. And so... That was electability. Yes.

Yeah. And I don't know. And the polls don't show that GOP voters care about electability the same way that Democrats did four years ago. So it may not matter. But it is sort of interesting to me that even though I completely agree that the performance art of being a politician just seems to matter more and more.

in this environment on these stages, which will benefit people like Vivek and Donald Trump. I do wonder at the end of the day if that's the... Even though it's more and more important, I still think other things continue to be important to a lot of voters. But the Democrats were able to get basically all the candidates to rally behind Joe Biden. Yes. And as we've seen with Republicans, they do not consolidate. They just won't. No. They didn't in 2016. They won't again.

And if that happens, then Donald Trump's going to be the nominee.

Yeah, that's probably what's going to happen. Thank you. This was really fun. Is there anything else you would want to throw out? Like any ideas? I feel like we covered it. Thank you so much, Alex, for coming on. Somebody's Got a Win. It's our second show. Please keep tuning in. Alex writes at Axios. He's a star national political reporter and he has a new book coming out. Not for a year. Oh, OK. He has a book coming out in a year on the Biden White House. It's gone.

What's the title? I don't have one yet. Working title. Stay tuned. You can follow him at? At Alex Tom. On Twitter. He has some pretty good tweets. I'll retweet him from time to time. All right. Thank you so much, Alex. Thanks for having me.

So I had Matthew Bartlett on the first show. He is, as I said, son of New Hampshire, descendant of first governor Josiah Bartlett and Republican operative who collects info on the candidates, sort of sizes them up for donors, interest groups, etc., and gets the lay of the land from the grassroots, the legislators, you know, the press.

to get an idea of what the first primary state really thinks about the candidates. So he mentioned that he would be watching the debate from a cigar shop in New Hampshire. And he said that a cigar shop in New Hampshire is where you get the heartbeat of the GOP primary voter. And that's where he watched the debate last night. Matthew.

Tell me all about it. Which cigar shop were you at? Where were you in New Hampshire? Yeah. Big night. Fight night. I was in Nashua, New Hampshire at Castro's Backroom right down there on Main Street. You never know who you're going to see there, whether it's the clientele or whether it's a politician coming in. And Michael Malley's been known to pop in when he's in town too. Nashua native. But yeah, we sat around and watched the debate. It was pretty exciting.

Okay. So what was the biggest takeaway? I mean, from the guys in the room, by the way, what was the group like? Men, women, it's gotta be, it's gotta be all men in a cigar shop. Let's be honest. Ladies don't really like to sit in cigar shops and get their clothes smelling like cigars right now. There were two women. There were two women making a mistake. Okay, cool. But yeah, you know, it's probably a male dominated, certainly leans right, we'll say. You know, these are people that will vote that may not be paying attention, you know, to the insider basis.

baseball, politics 24-7. But they're going to watch debates. They're going to be voting. They're going to be meeting candidates. Okay, so they were all there. Yeah, they were all there watching. And what was the takeaway? Who do they think won? What excited them? Well, it was funny. We started and there was a lot of grumbling. I was like, why isn't Trump there? I want to see Trump. Interesting. And one guy came in. All the candidates came on stage. And one guy just said, where's RFK Jr.?

And we were like, no, he's a Democrat. The guy's like, what are you talking about? They're really pissed at Biden for skipping New Hampshire, aren't they? Well, I think RFK is probably making some inroads on the Republican side. But everyone paid attention. We had some ground rules. You're not allowed to talk during the debate. Everyone was on their best manners. But then during the commercials, we were talking. Without a doubt, Vivek Ramaswamy made an impression on the group.

He was the focal point during the debate and certainly the focal point for the audience. A lot of these people hadn't heard of him before, liked what he's saying, liked how he talks, liked the outsider approach. I think a lot of people were also very surprised with Nikki Haley tonight.

Um, that was a, a, a shocker. No one came in being a fan of Nikki Haley and a lot of people walked out being, um, very impressed by her. It was funny. Uh, Ron DeSantis, you know, has been here in New Hampshire. Um, I thought he did all right. I think the room thought he did. He was solid. Um, at one point someone was just like, Ron's got balls and so on. And it was like, well, Nikki's got bigger balls. Um, so again, this was, this was a, a great night for, for Nikki Haley. Um,

Vivek Ramaswamy. You know, this is television, right? This isn't just a measuring of policies. This is how people connect. This is what people think. This is television and it's part of the showmanship. It's a bit entertainment. Yeah. Vivek succeeds in that. So essentially what you're telling me is that even though I've only been to one cigar shop in New Hampshire, my rankings are about the same as theirs, which was Vivek Ramaswamy.

Nikki Haley, essentially, right? Or maybe it was more of a Nikki, Ron in the cigar shop. But pretty much we ranked them about top three. And that was the vibe inside the cigar shop. Yeah, I think that's true. No one wanted to hear the Republican Party talk about abortion. They actually appreciated Nikki Haley's handling of the question. No one wanted to hear God. No one wanted to hear religion. Someone who was even just like, let's leave God out of the debates. Right.

Tim Scott was floundering. He sounded like a senator on the Senate floor or giving a sermon. Oh, so they were bored by him like I was. They were. Yes. I mean, he even made a direct appeal to Iowa in his closing remarks. I think...

I think that's maybe a good place to stay. He'll be here Friday, but no one in the room was electrified by him. Many were underwhelmed. And then also, no one wanted to hear, no one wanted to hear from Mike Pence. No one wanted to hear from Chris Christie. No one wanted to hear from Asa Hutchinson. Interesting, because Chris Christie polls well in New Hampshire. No one wanted to hear from Chris Christie?

Not in that room. Chris Christie polls well with a lot of disaffected Republicans, which are, you know, we have a significant, what is he at? You know, anywhere from nine to 14%.

I think that's fair. He'll probably keep in that lane. I don't see him winning the New Hampshire primary, but you never know. The group I was with tonight was absolutely, you know, enchanted by Vivek Ramaswamy, by the way he talked, by the way his energy, his presentation. And it's funny. I was just like, so has anybody changed their vote?

And all the Trump people who loved the vague were like, no, no, no, we're staying with Trump. We like the vague, but we're staying with Trump. Okay, so they'll still vote for Trump. It's just a matter of who comes in the second, which is, you know, runner up is number one in this race. So it's looking like at least today. I mean, how many months away are we from the New Hampshire primary now? Six months. Yeah. Okay.

So we'll see. If you were a Trump voter, you walked out being a Trump voter. If you were not looking for somebody and had your eyes open, I think Ron DeSantis, you know, steadied the ship maybe. He didn't take a punch. He didn't land a punch. He also wasn't attacked. But he wasn't attacked. He presented well. He walked out of there unscathed. But Nikki Haley seemed to make some eyes perk up. Okay. Interesting. So...

Thank you so much, Matthew, for giving us the lay of the land in the state that matters. Round zero. Round zero. Anything else you kind of got a vibe for? Or were there any moments that really tickled everybody in the room? Or in the room, as you say? You know, again, Vivek had a good night. He was engaging with Christy. I think he maybe even got the better of Christy. He had a real dirty line, right? So Chris Christy comes in and is just like,

let me tell you something, you know, you, you know, I'm going to put you in your place and, um, and you're like Obama. And the Vaker on his family says that once you come over here and hug me and get me elected, like you did to Obama, dirty, dirty clap back. Um, people in the room kind of appreciated the back and forth, but then Nikki Haley went after him like an attack dog and kind of put him in his place. And maybe he may have lost the room a little bit there. And that's where kind of,

she really showed some strength. Again, this is all about attitude. Yeah, she gained ground by putting him in his place. That's for sure. Yeah. Interesting. Interesting. All right, Matthew, thank you so much. Get to bed. It is midnight here in Milwaukee. Late night pod. Yeah, late night pod. We're doing this for you. Tim Scott coming Friday. Who knows who else? I'm sure Nick, you'll be coming riding high. Yeah. Thanks so much, Matthew. Have a great night. Yay. All right. Be well. Later. Later.

Thanks so much for tuning in. I'll be back on Tuesday with another episode. Tweet at me at Tara Palmieri with your feedback and thoughts and what you want to hear about on Somebody's Gotta Win.