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Hi, I'm Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent, and this is Somebody's Got a Whip.
The congressional seat held by George Santos has finally been filled. You know, the fabulous from Long Island, the place where F. Scott Fitzgerald based the Great Gatsby. That George Santos. There was finally an election to fill his seat after he was kicked out of Congress. And Democrats took it back by eight points. It was a resounding win. And it's perhaps a predictor of what's to come.
Two moderates ran against each other, Tom Swasey, a Democrat, against Mazie Pillip, Republican. And they had a campaign that was based on migration and fears of migration in the suburbs. This is ever since red state governors like Greg Abbott have been shipping migrants up north to cities like New York City. And that's created some fear in the wealthy suburbs.
In the last election in 2022, when George Santos became a congressman, there was a lot of fear of crime, and he rode that wave into Congress. So, Swazi went on the offense, and he really embraced crime.
immigration reform and the border. And at the time, Democrats and Republicans were working together on a border package, on some sort of deal to enhance border security and change the immigration rules. But the Republicans ultimately rejected it after Donald Trump weighed in against it and basically saw it as a winner for Joe Biden ahead of an election year.
And I think it was a pretty strong message for Tom Suozzi to go around saying like, hey, the Democrats tried to do something about this issue and Republicans rejected it because of Donald Trump. They just want chaos at the border because it helps them politically. Well, it obviously worked. You know, these two candidates, though.
They distanced themselves from the leaders of the party. Mazie Pillip distanced herself from Trump. Of course, Trump tweeted after she lost. If she had only been more MAGA, she would have won. I'm not so sure about that. And Swazi, he distanced himself from Joe Biden. But, you know, this is an interesting race to look at as we head into 2024. Perhaps more moderate Democrats who are...
willing to go after issues like migration and the border, that they might be able to take some seats back from Republicans. On a grander scale, this means that Republicans have an even smaller majority. Depending on the day, it could be
An advantage of one, two, three seats, three votes. You saw how difficult it was for them to actually impeach Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. That was one of their top priorities. And it took them two times to get the votes. They were only able to impeach him with the help of one vote.
So on this episode, I talked to someone who is in the heart of the chaos of this Congress, Congressman Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania. He's a Democrat from the Philadelphia region, and he's been in Congress since 2016. And he's actually very optimistic about the Democrats' chances in 2024 based on these upsets and the specials and how people have been motivated to come out and vote because of the Dobbs issue, abortion, how it's on the ballot.
Congressman Boyle also knows Scranton Joe pretty well. So I had to ask him what he thought of the return of Jon Stewart and how he skewered Biden. For me, I'm wondering, was Jon Stewart's monologue even more damaging than special counsel Robert Herr's report where he called Joe Biden elderly and painfully slow? But first, I'm going to talk to Congressman Boyle about his home state of Pennsylvania and how it might end up being the deciding factor in the 2024 election.
Congressman Boyle, I'm so happy you're on the show. Just last month, you gave me your prediction for 2024 in the election and how it's going to shake out in Pennsylvania, which is obviously a battleground state. How exactly did you say the state is going to go in 2024? Yeah. So first, it's great to be with you, Tara, and a fan of your work and the pod.
Just to preface my prediction, I've pointed out to basically anyone who will listen that the single most important state in the presidential election is Pennsylvania. And I say that because in 2016 and 2020, there were basically six states that decided the election. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. Three in the industrial north, three in the Sun Belt. All six states.
narrowly voted for Donald Trump or five of the six voted for Donald Trump in 2016. And then in 2020, they all voted for Joe Biden. Pennsylvania is the biggest. Narrowly. Very, very narrowly. So to give you an example, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump carried it by half a percentage point in 2016. And then Joe Biden carried it by one point
in 2020. And in fact, there were four statewide elections that same day in 2020. Democrats won two of them, Republicans won two of them, and all four were razor thin margins. So Pennsylvania, clearly the last two elections has been the biggest of the six battleground states. And we are again for 2024. I think, you know, really for the year 2000 is when
uh, politics changed in America before that most presidential races were blowouts, uh, from 2000 on though, they've all been within the margin with the exception of the one that took place in the great recession. They
They've all been within the margin of error. And I think 2024 will be the same. And getting to my prediction, I did predict that Biden would win Pennsylvania very narrowly. I predict that Senator Casey will also be reelected. But really, I can say right now, definitively, more money will be spent in Pennsylvania than any other state in the country in this election.
Just to tell our listeners, I think you said it was like by 0.47. That was what you told me. Am I right? Am I remembering this correctly? I think I, you know, I appreciate you remembering my prediction exactly right. I think I was channeling, if anyone, I'm enough of a political geek that I used to watch the McLaughlin report way back in the day, and he would always come up with some
entirely bizarrely specific prediction like that. So that does sound about right. Okay, so by half a percentage point, essentially, is what you were thinking. And you still think that's going to be the case? I think that's, look, there is no way this is going to be a blowout election.
We're in such an era of high negative partisanship. The reality is we're increasingly competing for a smaller pool of people who are willing to vote for a candidate of the other party. And I say that with great regret. I actually think we were more functional as a country in a previous era in which there were more swing voters. That's not the era in which we're living.
There just are fewer swing voters today. So what that means is both parties start at a much higher base than, let's say, 1964, when there was a 20-point landslide for Democrats, or 1972, when there was a 20-point landslide for Republicans.
Interesting. So how much money does it cost to win by half a percentage point in Pennsylvania? Like how much money do you see being spent? A lot. An awful lot. I mean, the U.S. Senate race will be well over $100 million. That was the case last U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania in 2022.
This one will be even more. And that's the one where John Fetterman beat Dr. Oz. Correct. By actually a larger margin than was expected. In the end, won by four points. The polling had that as a 50-50 race. A lot of people predicted Oz actually would win it
Let's face it, though, since June 2022 on, and we just saw this in the New York special election, every election that has taken place since that Dobbs decision in June 2022, you've seen Democrats perform a few points better than what the polling was showing. And so we did get a lift in Pennsylvania in November 2022. There's no question about it. And that was a really crazy election because you had a candidate who was sick, who had just been dealing with a stroke.
had difficulty speaking, you know, was hospitalized. And there was a feeling that the campaign was hiding him. So that's a risky vote to take. And then you've got Dr. Oz, who is just a particularly, I mean, remarkably, actually, weak candidate picked by Donald Trump. Tara, do not do not take any offense to this. But Mehmet Oz was from North Jersey.
Was still living in New Jersey even as a candidate in Pennsylvania, literally would record campaign spots that were clearly from his house overlooking the Manhattan skyline. Because the Federman campaign and other Democratic operatives did a good job and looked at previous magazine articles in which Dr. Oz was showing off his beautiful, unbelievably expensive North Jersey estate.
And and interestingly, McCormick might actually have the same problem, except for McCormick. It's Greenwich or Stanford, Connecticut. So age old carpetbagger story. It probably doesn't. It's probably not as big a knock in this era.
As it was in a previous era, but it still matters. And I have to say the Democratic campaign in 2022 did a really good job of using that against Oz. Oz also had other challenges as well.
There was also the case that in primary- Crudite? Yeah. That was just like- Yeah. I mean, really dumb stuff, not knowing Steelers and not knowing he was talking about rooting for the Steelers this week and he had a bye week. And I'm an Eagles fan and even I knew the Steelers had a bye week. So he just came off as incredibly inauthentic. But there was also the dynamic in which
Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona. You would think that Donald Trump was on the payroll of the National Democratic Party. Because in primary after primary, he chose all of the candidates we would want to run against. And so he was really an in-kind contribution to the Democratic cause last election.
I don't even remember what Emmett Oz's connection to Pennsylvania was. What did he say? Like, I grew up there or he had a house? He didn't even have that. McCormick actually is born in Pennsylvania and did grow up there. So he'll be able to talk about that. He talked about that in his ads last time when he ran and then lost to Oz in the primary. But Oz didn't even have that connection. I mean, it was a real test in this era of high partisanship
could you literally just pick a state because there's an opportunity, pretend you've moved to it, but you didn't really move to it, and then run for office. Oz's wife,
was from suburban Philadelphia. Ironically, the same school district in which my wife used to teach, just right outside Philadelphia. So she gave him the street cred, you know, whatever he had. But Oz had never lived in the state, didn't live in the state even as a candidate, even though he's pretending he did so. So there were those unique challenges to him. The reality, though, is back to 2024, I mean, I think, again, it's going to be a competitive year.
hyper-competitive, hyper-expensive campaign with Democrats winning. And the reality is this, and I think my Republican friends would agree with this as well. There's no plausible math that gets you to 270 without Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes.
Okay, just to understand Dave McCormick, by the way, who lost in the primary to Mehmet Oz, mainly because Trump took the scales to Oz, because Sean Hannity liked Oz. Of course, it always involved a Fox News personality. But McCormick actually may have beaten Fetterman. He's a very strong candidate, a Marine. He's kind of like hunky, got this like family that's... He's just...
seems just very jocular, clean cut, made a bunch of money, yadda yadda yadda. He just presents better as a politician, right? Just to be clear, I will in no way comment on his hunkiness. His alleged hunkiness. I will leave that to others. But, um...
But there's no question that McCormick is a better candidate than Oz. McCormick was leading Oz by a good five points in the polls until Trump endorsed Oz. And that gave, it didn't give Oz a huge lift, but it was just enough that Oz beat McCormick in the primary by one-tenth of 1%. But the question in my mind is,
Will McCormick as this massive hedge fund guy who looks very comfortable in a country club, will he be able to win back that well-educated, high median income, suburban Philadelphia Republican who beginning either in 2016 or 2018 started voting Democratic? There are a ton of those in Chester County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, also some suburbs of Pittsburgh.
Will McCormick be able to win them back? Or in this era of Trump so branding the Republican Party, are they just permanently gone? Especially now that you have the Dobbs decision on top of it. But are they, they're ticket splitters though in Pennsylvania, right? So they might,
Go both ways, like vote for Biden, vote for McCormick. That's an open question. But, you know, take Chester County, for example, suburban Philadelphia. Is that the county that you represent? No, it's just it would be about 45 minutes west of me. Again, you know, highest median income in the state, really high education attainment rates.
There, that's a county that have been a Republican from the Civil War until just recent times. Voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but Pat Toomey did really well there in 2016 as well. But then from 2018 on, it has been voting Democratic and by double digits. And so we've now had three cycles, 18, 20, and 22.
since that 2016 election. So at one point, if these voters are just routinely voting Democratic now, not just for president, but for Senate, for their member of Congress, which is a Democrat, for local, now it has a majority Democratic delegation in the state legislature, it might be that those voters are just gone for the Republican Party. We will find out in this election. If someone like McCormick is not able- But are they gonna turn out? That's the question. That's a different question. I mean,
To be fair, turnout is an open question all across the board because I will acknowledge we've seen some so far polling indications. If the polling is accurate, we've seen some indications that perhaps there are some younger voters and African-American Latino voters who aren't as excited as I want them to be about once again turning out in 2024. And there's all sorts of evidence that the Republican side has a problem with turnout
The low turnout they're getting in these presidential primaries has to be something that's concerning to the RNC. Well, the RNC right now is too busy fighting itself and trying to see, you know, they just took out their own chair. So maybe the RNC is a bad example, but other professionals-
And he's swallowed it whole. He swallowed the RNC before even being the nominee. When a Democrat like me, it might come off as kind of an overly partisan charge when someone like me says it's the Trump party.
It isn't though, unlike 2016 when he didn't have the control, even when he was the nominee, he has full control of the Republican Party from the very top now all the way down to the grassroots. It is the Trump Party.
He wants to name his daughter, Lara Trump, and his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, to the top of the co-chair of the RNC. And then he picked this guy from North Carolina as an election denier to be the co-chair. Then he installed, he wants to install his co-campaign manager to be the COO. Yeah, and he booted Ronna McDaniel, who was like the ultimate loyalist. I'm not really surprised at all by any of this.
But, you know, it's interesting. I've got to say, though, yes, it is the Trump party, but he's winning the primaries. And as much as the party doesn't really want him, like Mitch McConnell does not want him. You know what I mean? Even Kevin McCarthy deep down doesn't want him. And the establishment was really behind Ron DeSantis when he first came out of the gate. Right. The money went to him. Mitch McConnell was excited about him. The donors were excited about him. They were like anyone but Trump. Right.
And they all lost. And it's like the grassroots chose Trump. So like, what are they supposed to do? You know what I mean? The big Republican donors are
for maybe 7% to 10% of the Republican Party. Right, but they go to the RNC. Like, that's their apparatus. Yeah, although, is it really their apparatus, though, with Lyra Trump as about to be the co-chair? Not anymore, yeah. No, I think it is, like, again, from top to bottom, it is the Trump Party. And this will be interesting, and it'll be a test for us. But he grabbed it, and he made that happen, whereas, like, I think the Democratic establishment has sort of
like created Biden rather than the grassroots. Do you know what I mean? Uh,
I'm not sure. I mean, we did have a really competitive, vigorous primary in 2020. And in the end, Biden... But he wasn't like the resounding winner. He didn't win New Hampshire. He didn't win Iowa. He didn't win Iowa and New Hampshire. But then, boy, he really swept on Super Tuesday. And functionally, the race was over once he won South Carolina by 30 points and then won Super Tuesday by such a large margin. So...
The party really came behind him. That didn't happen really on its own. I do think that the party is overwhelmingly behind Biden. I also think the reality is that Democrats of every stripe in 2020 were so motivated to stop Donald Trump. Once it becomes clear to more voters that Trump really is going to be the Republican nominee, remember, there are a lot of voters who just
aren't paying attention yet and don't actually believe that Donald Trump will really be the Republican nominee. Once we get past Super Tuesday and that reality sets in,
I do think you'll see a little bit of a change in these numbers so far. Okay. For everyone listening on the show, you all know Trump is the nominee, right? I've actually been telling you this since September. You have been proven 100% right. And let's face it. I mean, those of us who listen to your podcast loyally, who are true political junkies, love Somebody's Gotta Win, we're
We're a very, very small slice of the population. Most people aren't political junkies. Most people aren't checked in and paying attention to this yet. When they do and they find out that Trump is really going to be the Republican nominee, I do think it will come as quite a surprise to quite a number of people. OK, fair enough. But in the meantime, there have been a ton of polls, NBC, ABC, CNN.
Harvard, Marist, all the top polls. And I know everyone likes to hate on polling, but it's just like these polls are not even in the margin of error. And they show Trump beating Biden in the swing states that you talk about that matter. And we know this is going to come down to the Electoral College. Trump can't win the popular vote. He didn't in 2016. He didn't in 2020. And he probably won't in 2024. So, I mean,
There has to be real concern that Trump is beating Biden in these swing states right now. Yeah. So first, I disagree a little bit with your premise. I mean, most of the high quality polls I'm seeing show both candidates in basically the low 40s with a lot of undecided voters or voters who are considering some of the other third party candidates. So I think right now that's basically where the race stands.
The two things when it comes to polling I'm looking at are one, both times Trump has been on the ballot, the polling has understated Trump voters and understated these people who don't typically turn out. And they have turned out in two elections for him, 2016 and 2020. That is something that concerns me and that I'm paying attention to. But the second polling miss is in the exact opposite direction.
And that is ever since June of 2022 and that Dobbs decision, every single congressional special election that has happened, Democrats have overperformed the polling and won. So I think there's also an error on the other side. Repulsors are missing an increase in Democratic turnout because- Because of Dobbs. That was the moment it changed. I mean, literally- You think that they're not polling women properly? Is that what it is? I do wonder if younger voters
voters and particularly younger female voters who are somehow not habitual voters or not making it into these likely voter screens, then just end up turning out on election day. Because whether it was Mary Paltola in Alaska, Pat Ryan in upstate New York,
The first two congressional specials that happened after the Dobbs decision through to November 2022, when, you know, some predicted a red wave. On average, the party in power loses 23 seats. Instead, it was in the single digits and Republicans lost, whether it was governorships or Senate. They actually fell back in the Senate where they were supposed to pick it up.
And then, of course, the elections that have happened even since then, Democrats have continued to outperform the polling and outperform expectations. So 2024, to be totally candid, is a battle between these two dynamics when it comes to the polls, one of which each favors either party.
Here's my thinking, though. Trump wasn't on the ballot for these votes. Do you know what I mean? Like, they were specials. They were, you know, midterms. He was not on the ballot. That's a totally different type of voter that comes out.
I don't think Republicans, I don't think his voters are motivated unless he's on the ballot. So, I mean, that was my first point. And they're impossible to pull. Yeah. Right. That 2016 and 2020, why the Trump support was understated by a couple points was because of those people he brings out who then don't come out when he isn't on the ballot. But Republicans still have no answer for the second point that I made, and that is their abortion position.
is a remarkable loser in every single battleground state, including Pennsylvania. And I will be making the argument, not with any exaggeration or hyperbole. If Trump wins, let's face it, Republicans have held the House and that battleground map really favors them in the Senate. I will say this right now, if Trump wins, there's the Republican trifecta, we will have a national abortion ban.
The pressure to get rid of the filibuster, if Republicans have full control, will be intense and will be great. Between the legislation they can pass as well as the things they can do executively, we will either by law or de facto have a national abortion ban if Trump wins.
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I agree with you, but I don't think the Republicans are going to win the House back. I think that they- I'm happy to agree with you. No, no, I just think it's such a mess. They've been so terrible at leading. I think that they may win the Senate, although that crazy Carrie Lake now that she's been supported by the National Republicans Committee-
in Arizona. She's another Trump candidate. I mean, it really depends on how much Trump puts his finger on the scale in the Senate races. Yes, the Republicans are poised to take the Senate back, just like they were the last time. But they didn't. You know, look, I am. I'm in no way conceding the Senate. Let me be clear. But I also recognize that, unfortunately, this cycle, it's a tough map for Democrats. We have
We have to defend West Virginia, which with Joe Manchin not running will be a very steep climb. We also have to defend red states, red state Democratic senators in Ohio and Montana. Fortunately, we have two popular great incumbents in Sherrod Brown and John Tester. But man, for a Democrat to win statewide in this era in both those states, that's a challenge. We lose West Virginia, we need to hold both of them
And we need to hold every single battleground state Senate Democrat that's up, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada. Well, you're in luck, though.
with Montana because Trump just basically got, or no, it was the Speaker of the House, Johnson, who got behind Rosendale. Matt Rosendale. He got behind him. He got behind him. Then he rescinded it. And now he's just sending him money. I actually think we're, I think Rosendale has a great chance to win that primary. And this could be a redux of 2022. Yeah, they're going to botch it. In some of these Republican primaries, they botch it. In the end, if we're able to hold. That's why I think it could be some split ticketing. I think it might.
Just to be clear, I'm being realistic and recognizing the challenge we have of that map. But I absolutely believe that we Democrats can hold the Senate and are competitive. I just recognize the challenge of the tilted playing field just based on the map, just based on
the luck of which Senate seats are up. And then as far as the House, I'm extremely bullish on Democratic chances. I mean, the fact that New York State alone has enough seat, Republican held seats in Democratic territory that we could win to flip the House. Then you add in California, Arizona, some other areas where there are Republicans defending seats in areas that Biden won.
And the reality is if you're one of those so-called moderate Republican members of the House from New York or California, what exactly can you point to
this term that you achieved. It is by the numbers, the most dysfunctional, least productive Congress going back 150 years. So I mean, it's been a total disaster. You just need to sit on your hands as Democrats, essentially, and let them do the job. But I will say last night was a good night for you in Long Island. It was
George Santos's seat and will forever be called George Santos's seat, no matter whoever takes it from this point forward, thanks to his infamy. Yeah. So Tom Suozzi, who held the seat before George Santos when the seat swung to Biden the first time, and then it went to George Santos, a Republican in the midterms, it swung back to the Democrats. And, you know, this is
This is a big win because he won by eight points. It was pretty decisive. He's a moderate Democrat who was up against a moderate Republican. And they kind of had the same message. They sounded the same in a lot of ways. Yeah, anti-immigration. Like, Swazi really leaned into the border issues in a way Democrats really haven't felt comfortable doing. And maybe it's because he comes from, you know, it's a wealthy enclave and they're terrified of the migration in New York, you know, southern California.
governors like Greg Abbott of Texas have been shipping migrants up to cities like yours and New York and Chicago. And it's created some chaos and it's freaked out the suburbs who get the news from New York City. And they're like, oh, no, they're coming to our, you know, jewel box cities, our jewel box cities.
suburbs, and it's created real fears. So that was seen as an advantage for Republicans, but he was somehow able to flip the switch on that. But in the last election, the midterms, when George Santos was elected, it was all about crime. Same sort of reason, right? The crime from New York City was seeping into the suburbs. I don't know. What can Democrats really learn from Tom Suozzi? Well, I think there are a few things. First,
I am ecstatic after that win. Here we see yet another congressional special election in which Democrats vastly outperformed the polling. I mean, every poll I saw showed it as either a one, two or three point race and Swazi ends up winning by eight. And consider that last election, the Republican candidate, of course, George Santos, won by seven points. Hochul lost this district by double digits.
So that is a massive swing to win a seat like this. It also tells me, you know, there are areas and I know Tom, I'm friends with him. We both serve in the Ways and Means Committee together. Excited to have him back. Tom and I have talked about the similarities between his district and parts right around me in suburban Philadelphia. So actually, I think there's a lot about this you can extrapolate.
to other swing suburbs. The one issue I would take when you said they're both anti-immigration, there's a big difference, right? Okay. Pomswazi came out in favor of the grand compromise that got 70 votes in the Senate. He said he was willing to vote for this compromise that's supported by Democrats,
whether liberal or moderate, moderate Republicans and even conservative Republicans like James Lankford and Mitch McConnell. Mazzie Pillip, the Republican candidate, said no. So she sided with the MAGA position and with Donald Trump. So that really flipped the switch, right? Now, Swazi was able to say, Democrats were able to say, we want the solution. So you think it's the bill that got
You think that the fact that the Republicans tanked the border bill, that actually helped Swazi? I do. And actually, today around the House, I've spoken to at least one House Republican who thinks the same thing. Interesting. Again, sit on your hands and let them run the roost. And this is what happens.
You know, it's crazy. I if you had told me, I guess that very first day of session was sort of foreshadowing. The DHS secretary based on a resolution proposed by Marjorie Taylor Greene. And that is literally one of the few pieces of legislation that has actually passed the House of Representatives in the last 14 months. And that was by one vote. It's nutters. I don't know how you go to work in the morning.
How do you do it? I work in a very interesting place, let's just say. Let me put it that way. Are you worried about being elbowed, punches, anything like that? No one has elbowed me in the kidney yet. I have to say, the Democratic side is a lot more boring than my Republican friends. We all
Really, by and large, get along. When you have power, then you see the fractures in the party. Yeah, but wait a minute. Last term, with the same exact majority, we literally passed the most far-reaching legislation since Lyndon Johnson was president. Yeah, that's because you tamed AOC. We had a very good and effective speaker. But there is, I have to say, let me defend the most progressive members of my caucus.
There's a big difference between the squad and the Freedom Caucus and other side. In the end of the day, you pick the most progressive member on the House Democratic side. They actually want to get things done. They want to get legislation passed. They might have goals that are, you know, a few degrees or a few notches greater than
Well, actually, now they don't want to pass the Ukraine aid bill. That's the latest. But ultimately, philosophically, though, Tara, when you're talking about what government should do, actually, they tend to want government to do even more. So they don't, in the end, want to be obstructive. I mean, think of how much of Biden's agenda became law.
You had the progressive caucus, including the CPC chair that ended up being one of his biggest allies. And a lot of times the Democrats who were actually pausing things, you know, were Manchin and Sinema in the Senate. Well, that's because Biden gave, yeah, exactly. Biden gave the progressive
what they wanted. He gave them far sweeping, massive legislation, the kind of things they could only dream of, right? So everybody was happy. It is an agenda that I talked a lot about in my district in 2022. I continue to talk about now that the specific drugs, this is just one of many examples, the specific drugs had been the labels, right?
have now come out in terms of the ones that will be impacted and see their costs come down. That's something we did a major communication on to our district. It was I-95 in my district, Northeast Philadelphia, that collapsed because of that fire last summer. I was able to point to the infrastructure bill that I worked on
as having the resources available where we wouldn't have to worry about that. Have they started, though? That's the whole thing. These are massive sweeping bills, right? Build back better infrastructure. But have the people felt it yet? Because all of the polling shows that inflation is top of mind, immigration. There's still a lot of, I guess...
unhappiness with the current administration considering these massive bills and everyone's like, no, no, it's great. We did all this stuff. But for some reason, people just aren't believing it.
So they're not buying the economic indicators. There's no question that public opinion always is a lagging indicator when it comes to the economy. So in other words, you don't start to see, it was basically a six to 12 month lag between people feeling it once you start seeing progress and kind of the economic numbers. But I also, and I don't know, you might disagree with me on this. Others might disagree. It's not really a political point. I just tend to think ever since COVID started,
It was such a rough time for people. There isn't a family that I personally know that wasn't impacted in some major way, that didn't have either a family member with a mental health issue or substance abuse or some
just something heavy in their lives. Not to mention, oh, by the way, you know, more than a million Americans died twice the death toll in World War II or the Civil War or any other previous calamity. It's awful for people. And, you know, my wife and I have a small child who we were educating at home while I'm on Zooms about legislation. And my wife is teaching on
second graders on her Zoom from our dining room, and we were all trying to keep it together. So I tend to think as a society, we all still have kind of an overhang from the difficulties of COVID. Okay. So you think it's kind of like a PTSD, and so people aren't willing to give Biden a fair shot for how much we've recovered. I'll say that there is evidence throughout the Western world
that there is a great deal of discontent ever since the COVID period. And it would be natural when you think of everything that we went through, it would be natural if people still aren't kind of in the same mood they were maybe in the late 1990s, the last time we had jobs numbers this good. Okay. So you know Scranton Joe well, right? You've been a big surrogate for him since you became a...
I guess you were a congressman in 2016, maybe even before then, were you a surrogate? Yeah. So you've known him for a while, almost 10 years now, maybe more. I've actually known him back to when I, because where he lives, you know, Wilmington, Delaware is really in the metro Philadelphia area. And for a long time, Pennsylvania had two Republican senators.
So the joke, like in the 90s and the aughts, was that Joe Biden was the Democratic senator from Pennsylvania. And he would show up at a lot of Philadelphia events, party events and otherwise. So I was getting ready for his presidential run. Come on now. It wasn't laying the groundwork. Yeah.
Yeah. You know, he, he has personally joked to me that he lives closer to the Phillies and Eagles stadiums than I do, uh, as I live up in the, in the far Northeast of the city. Um, so he is a Philly area guy and that matters. And yeah, as,
as is often talked about in the press, he's in my district and in the Philadelphia area often. And so as a result, you know, 20, 25 times I've been with him and in close conversation over the last several years. Okay. So everybody's talked about the Her report, right? Which I'll get to with you. But what did you think of Jon Stewart's comeback?
It's brutal. Well, first, I thought it was brutal. I have to say, since Jon Stewart had one of the, you know, he was really one of the most important voices in the whole George W. Bush Iraq war period and brought a lot of
news to people who weren't paying attention to CNN or Fox News and MSNBC. So it is nice to have Jon Stewart's voice back. And yes, I did see the funny monologue. I'll say this about, look,
Biden is old and Trump is old. Trump is also crazy and under 91 indictments. I can say, honestly, God, strap me up to a lie detector test. As someone who has been around Biden at least 20, 25 times over the last couple of years, I have no reservations whatsoever about his mental capacity or whether or not he's in charge. If you're
If you're in a meeting with him, there is no question that Joe Biden is sharp. He knows what he's talking about. He has a lot of experience and he's in charge. I think it's more a problem of optics that, you know, we're not used to seeing someone that age in this sort of position. And the reality is either Donald Trump- But I mean, when he went out there and defended himself, like the problem is,
Sure, this her report comes out. It's terrible for him. You know, the way he was described, elderly man with bad memory, yada, yada, yada, painfully slow, all the kind of words that the team just wants nothing to do with. When he comes out and does his press conference, he sort of reaffirms all of the fears that Americans had. Like, it was not a strong reaction. It was not a strong rebuttal. He didn't seem focused. He didn't seem...
he made a lot of mistakes. I don't, it just, you didn't walk away from that being like, Oh yeah, this guy's on it. So, well, I mean, the reality of the 2024 election is this, that even if third party candidates potentially play a role of spoiler, it's something I'm very concerned about because I've seen it happen twice in the last 24 years. Um,
the reality is either. Wait, who would play the role of spoiler? I'm sorry. I just wonder. Oh, I said twice in the last 24 years, I've seen a minor party candidate play the role of spoiler. Ralph Nader did it to Al Gore in 2000 and Jill Stein did it in 2016 to Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, right? You think so? At least. So in 2016, I mean, here are the numbers. I mentioned how Donald Trump won by a half a percent, um,
in 2016, it was 44,000 votes in Pennsylvania. Jill Stein got more than 44,000 votes. So I, I can sit and she got more votes. She's back on the ballot green party. So, and Jill Stein made the difference, not only in Pennsylvania, but Michigan and Wisconsin. So I, I am concerned about the potential chicanery that having these third party and fourth party and fifth party candidates, uh,
and their potential impact to help Trump. Because I don't see any scenario in which Trump could possibly get more than 47% of the vote. He really needs those independent third party candidates. But that said,
none of them are going to win. I mean, the winner, if 2024 in November is either going to be Joe Biden or Donald Trump. And what that means is the winner of this election will be the oldest president elected in American history. So that is an issue that's a challenge for both campaigns. And I have to say, Donald Trump, the last few weeks with some of the things he's saying, I mean, that Nikki Haley gaffe,
A gaffe is just one thing. He kept repeatedly saying that Nikki Haley was responsible for January 6th. I have noticed a real decline in Donald Trump today versus four years ago and eight years ago. Totally. But when Biden ran four years ago, he was Trump's age. And everyone was... It wasn't the top story. You know what I mean? It wasn't like... Every other story was Biden's age. It was a factor. It was a factor. I remember it was a factor. It was a factor, but it wasn't like this. You know what I mean? Like there's...
This is now the story. No matter, I mean, inflation, border, et cetera, it's age. 86% of Americans tell ABC News in a poll that they think he's not. They don't want him to run again because of his age. So, and it's like, it feels like they're saying, oh, put him out in front of the cameras. But I don't think that that's making a better case. I mean, the reason I point out Jon Stewart, fine, Robert Herr, everyone that
That may be a news cycle or two. That may be a ton of political ads, which I think they'll cut based on that. It is a legal document. People will say he's MAGA. I don't know if I buy that. Because he's also probably said he'll most likely prosecute Donald Trump for the same crimes, but mainly because, you know, he's not cooperating and actually try to obfuscate the documents. It's insane. But I don't know. I think the thing about Jon Stewart, he sort of like pierced the bubble and said, like, it's OK, you know,
for people to talk about what they're seeing, but not to feel like they're being gaslit into feeling like, oh, this guy's old. Oh my God, everyone's telling me he's so sharp. That's not what I'm seeing. Is there something wrong with me? He sort of was able to say,
This is kind of ridiculous. Like, he's not in good shape. And just because he is the president, we don't need to be quiet about it. We don't need to, like, not bring it up. I mean, ultimately, it's Biden's decision to run again. And he's still a candidate. And so he needs to be judged based on this. And also, I mean, the point about the barbarians at the gate, I mean, it really goes down to the fears that I hear from people inside D.C. and outside D.C.
I mean, if Donald Trump is an existential threat, then why don't we have our best running?
Why don't we have someone who's blowing them out of the water running? And yet having and I hear you and having said all of that, we literally just had a Democratic primary in South Carolina and Joe Biden won by more than 95 points over a candidate, my colleague and Dean Phillips, who was making largely the same exact points that you were making. So it's not a case of the party winning.
kind of putting Biden in. Okay, first of all, Dean Phillips has no name ID. He did not have a Democratic passport. Wait a minute. He had a super PAC supporting him and had a lot of advertising on the air in New Hampshire, as well as South Carolina. And he also has some personal wealth. And Dean, look, I've served with him. He's a smart guy. He's a substantive person.
He has been making exactly the same points he just said and has come nowhere close. I mean, and I feel bad pointing this out because I happen to like Dean personally, but he didn't even make 2% in South Carolina while Biden was getting over 95%. But they changed the calendar for Joe Biden so that the primary started in South Carolina. But they did. The DNC changed the calendar so that he had an advantage. Yeah.
But wait a minute. So that it started in South Carolina. It was a state that he was going to win. That doesn't mean he had an advantage in the South Carolina electorate. It came three weeks... Dean Phillips spent no time. It came three weeks earlier. So, I mean... But he spent no time in South Carolina. Listen, I don't want to... He spent time in New Hampshire and also got his butt whooped there, too. He did. Fair enough. But, like, this is also... You're comparing it to someone who has...
There was no real primary. They didn't even accept the New Hampshire delegates. There was no, you know, there was no shot. I don't know why he spent all of his time there. I don't think that Dean Phillips was a serious candidate. I think if there was a real primary...
then this would be a totally different story. But you've got the president of the United States with the entire democratic apparatus behind him. And then they decided to start to change the calendar to start at a state that he did well, the state that actually kicked off his 2020 campaign. And of course he's going to win it. He's got James Clyburn behind him, who's a mover and shaker there. And yeah, sure. 95%. I don't know. I just still, I think that
Jon Stewart gave people permission to talk about it in a way that even more, even more so than the her report. Cause you can be like, Oh, hers, her is some sort of like MAGA hack, which, which I don't actually think. I'll say this before the her report, before Jon Stewart on the daily show, people, plenty of people in the media were talking about Biden's age and
It was an issue last week. But politely. It'll be an issue. No one was like, he's selfish for running. People were bringing up the age issue. But in the end, I firmly believe this is going to be an issue that both candidates are going to have to overcome. And for Joe Biden, I do think it is overcomable. He has a great line, which I've often quoted for myself. Just don't compare me to the almighty. Compare me to the alternative.
That has been very effective for Joe Biden against Donald Trump. And I think it will be again in 2024. So basically saying, don't make this a referendum on me. Make this a choice. We'll see how it works out. It's just, I think that Democrats are terrified right now when they see the polling results.
And they see a candidate that will be 86, you know, by the end of his term. Versus a candidate who will be 83 by the end of his term. So that's where it goes back to a choice. Yeah, it does go back to a choice. Absolutely. I mean...
The beginning of Biden's term is 82. Listen, I'm not going to talk about who's older or not because Trump is a whole nother level. You're right. It is a choice between old and crazy. Do you know what I mean? I do think that there's...
I do think you're right. And I think that all the people who decide to vote for third party candidates, et cetera, like they're just giving a vote to Trump essentially. Right. Yeah. De facto, there's no question about that. By the way, Tara, let's look on the bright side of this new reality where two 80 year olds can run for president. That means,
I have until 2060 to keep my presidential hopes alive. So, you know, I've been in Congress 10 years. Brendan Boyle for president. 2060. Starting now. The voice of the 60s. Why don't you run? Well, it's too late. The voice of the 60s. 2060s. That'll be the slogan. So maybe I'll try to go younger. Well, you know what? It's crazy because Biden has been running since basically he was your age, right? Yeah.
Let's see. Well, I just turned 47 and I've been in Congress 10 years. Hopefully I'll be chairman of the Budget Committee next term, which would make me all of this talk about older age. I would be the youngest committee chair on Capitol Hill since Paul Ryan if we win the majority in November. So I'd be excited about that.
And then for Biden, he was elected even younger. He was elected 30. So he's elected even seven years younger, younger than I am. So it is. You could be elected. When can you be elected to Congress or Senate? How old do you have to be? So 25 for House, 30 for Senate, 35 for president.
Okay. In the Constitution. Yeah. Great. Just I'm ready for presidency after this show. I will give that'll be the finale. Somebody's got to win. It's me. I'm hanging it up. Okay. In 2060, if the dream happens, I will point back to this podcast 36 years earlier, and I'll say this is where it was launched. Well, let's start from the beginning of the show. We're going to point back to your prediction for Pennsylvania. Yeah.
I'm holding you to it. I firmly believe it. A narrow, close race. Biden wins, Casey wins, and Biden is narrowly reelected in a country that will still continue to be fairly evenly divided.
OK, well, we'll see what happens. Thanks so much for joining the show. This was fun. I learned a lot and I'll be checking in with you on Pennsylvania. You're right. Biden is still beating Trump in the polls in Pennsylvania. It's the other states that that Trump is is ahead of him by, you know, five points in some of these states. I don't know. Well, I enjoyed this was a lot of fun and hold me to it. Whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania wins the White House.
That was another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. I'm your host, Tara Palmieri. I want to thank my producers, Devin Biroldi and Connor Nevins. If you like this show, please share it with your friends. Please rate it and subscribe. If you like my reporting, please go to puck.news and sign up for my newsletter, The Best and the Brightest. You can use the discount code Tara20. I'll be back again next week.