In Defense of Biden Bed-wetters
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Hi, I'm Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent, and this is Somebody's Gotta Win. The New York Times and Siena College has a new poll out, and it shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in five out of the six battleground states that are expected to determine who wins the election in 2024. Trump is leading Biden by four to 10 percentage points, not to be taken lightly, in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

The only state where Joe Biden has a slim lead is Wisconsin. Obviously, this is very concerning. So it feels like in Washington, every time a set of bad polls come out over the weekend that shows Trump beating Biden, whether nationally or in the six states,

swing states that are likely going to matter in this election. There is a collective freak out in Washington. I talk about this all the time. It tends to happen on Monday. It's like the worst Monday of all time. Everyone, you know, is on the cable news shows. My guest, Michael LaRosa, was on CNN this morning at 530 in the morning trying to break it down. God bless him. He worked in

in the Biden White House until like about a year ago. So I'm going to get right into it with Michael. So just for some context, like I had Jim Messina on the show a few months ago. He was Obama's former president.

chief strategist. And he was telling me everyone in town is bedwetting over these national polls that show Trump beating Biden across the country in the national books. That doesn't really matter. It comes down to these six swing states. And in his polling, it showed Biden beating Trump. And this was just a few months ago. And he said that at the end of the day, people are going to vote on abortion and they're going to vote against Trump in these in these swing states.

And I kind of challenged him because I just said Biden was always beating Trump nationally in 2019 and 2020 before the election. And I'm not totally sure about it now. A few months later, we're seeing Trump beating Biden in five of the six swing states and actually even beyond the margin of error from five to 10 points in some of these states. And

It's really interesting what came out of this New York Times-Siena poll. It's, you know, a credible poll. And I just brought in Michael LaRosa, who worked for Biden, to talk about this and just sort of get his thoughts. I mean...

Are Democrats bedwetting or are they sleepwalking into an election where their candidate is really weak and perhaps needs to be swapped out? Well, I got to say, it's pretty insufferable being on Twitter when any poll comes out because you have people whining about the poll and you have people whining about the people whining about the polls. And it's like everybody...

everybody wants to show they're smarter than the other person or like, oh, this is parallel, this tracks of what happened every four years and to some extent,

That's true. You know, people necessarily really don't like governing. And when it's an incumbent, that person makes decisions and they're accountable for those decisions. When you're campaigning, it's different. So an incumbent is always going to be

probably more unpopular than like X candidate running against them. Right. So there's that, but the polls, I don't know. I just feel like everybody needs to take a breath. Like the people who are whining about the polls, uh,

Or no offense, like the media who is just over extrapolating too much from polls one year out. And then the people whining about whining about the people who are conducting the polls and the media. And it is like, guys. Yeah. I mean, if the polling was good, they wouldn't be screaming at the media. But that's what's annoying about it, because they the people who are who are whining about the people and the media whining about the polls.

They hire pollsters. They hire pollsters just like the media does. So they pay pollsters. They spend a lot of money paying for polls that ultimately inform and guide their strategy. And why would they blame the media for...

Having polls one year out and not expect them to talk about what's in the poll. Right. Are we supposed to expect that the Biden campaign is not doing polling as well? Let's all step back, take a breath. You can't extrapolate anything one year out. There's too many. There's too many X factors that are out there right now that we just don't know about. Why would you ever?

put meaning into a poll one year out. I disagree. They are a report card for how people feel about that person or those two people right now. But that doesn't mean you're going to get the grade, the same grade you get today, you're going to get next week or a year from now. Okay. My only issue with what you're saying, well, I have a few issues with what you're saying. I'm going to play devil's advocate because I have to. You play for the Biden team, but you are very clear eyed.

The trend for Joe Biden is downwards. That is the problem. All the polling shows Biden going down in the swing states nationally. The polling is just going downwards. And the trend for Trump is going upwards. After each indictment, he keeps creeping up. His polling is better. It is crazy. And I get what you're saying. Like, why look at the polls a year from now? Because like, this is the moment when you get to sort of like,

choose the candidate when you get to choose your player. And also, you can't not pay attention from the polling a year from now. Yes, anything can happen between...

you know, November 6th or November 4th when it came out, 2023 and November 4th, 2024. But it's an indicator of how people are feeling about your incumbent president, who, by the way, has an advantage by way of being an incumbent, right? There's this weird nostalgia for Donald Trump and it exists around the economy. Like that is what I read into that polling. It is very weird. I mean, here's the thing.

People do not think that Trump caused inflation, right? That's not the way they look at it. And that Biden inherited the inflation caused by Trump. That's just not how people are looking at it right now, whether that is true or not. Instead, they say they missed the days of Trump and they blame Biden for inflation. That is the biggest thing that I'm reading from these swing state polls out of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

and Wisconsin. Trump leads in the first five. He does not lead in Wisconsin. Biden leads in Wisconsin by a few points. And it's really interesting because Biden is losing support among a big part of his coalition, younger voters, Black and Hispanic voters, who are like kind of crazy looking at Trump after all those years of being offended by him. And

I mean, maybe it's because he's quiet. He's not on Twitter anymore. He's not in the forefront or the forefront of the news cycle, except for his legal issues. Biden is losing support with them. I just don't think anyone could have ever expected that. So it's just shocking to see Trump actually making gains with black and Hispanic voters. Making gains?

Is he really making things? The New York Times poll. That poll says that, but that has not been the experience of,

of voters in the last three elections. Polls, fine. Say what you want about polls. You can put as much meaning into them as you'd like. What we know is that that's just not the case when it came to voting in the last three elections. Yeah. Right now, Trump is getting 22 percentage points among African-Americans. Apparently, that's unheard of for a modern Republican president.

I don't know. I just wonder what's happening right now. And it seems that from all these polls, it's just that people value the economy more than anything else, even more than democracy, more than stability, even more than abortion. It's a weird...

time right now where everyone seems to just be focused on the economy. And even though the jobs numbers are good, there are indications that inflation is going down. It just doesn't seem to be selling or people aren't feeling it. And you've got Obama's former chief strategist, David Axelrod, saying that Joe Biden should drop out. Not too many things shocked me, but that kind of shocked me. Because this is such a

This is such a dumb conversation to be having because he's not dropping out. He's the leader of the party. You know, Democrats had their opportunity to choose somebody different and they chose not to. Democrats are actually pretty loyal to

the establishment, more so than Republicans are, I think. Wait, wait, wait. How did the Democrats have an opportunity to choose someone different than Joe Biden? There's no primary. And they're starting in South Carolina, a state that is advantageous to Joe Biden. First of all, nobody runs for president for one term.

Have you ever heard of a president running for president for one term? A guy who says he's a bridge. He didn't say what the bridge was to be. He didn't say the bridge was in four years. I read it as a bridge, as in a... He says the bridge to a next generation. Yeah, after he's done. So an eight-year bridge, not a four-year bridge? Well, what president do you know has ever run for president for four years? I think he was the oldest president, though, right, to be inaugurated? Mr. Trump. Yeah. If Trump gets inaugurated.

No, the oldest president to be elected before Joe Biden was Donald Trump. And then we elected an older president. OK, so he was the oldest president ever. Sure. But what I'm saying is the American people really don't seem to mind electing older presidents because the oldest president before Joe Biden was Donald Trump.

Before that, it was Ronald Reagan. The main takeaway from this poll in the swing state is that Biden's age is a huge liability. And the only people who are really sticking with him, weirdly, are older white voters. And those are the people that I would think would stick with Trump. And instead, it's Hispanic, Black and young voters who are now considering Trump in these swing states. Like to me, that's the most mind blowing part about it. Why, though?

He was elected once and he barely lost last time. Why are we shocked that this is a close race? That's what I don't understand. No, I don't think it's the fact that it's a close race. It's just that the coalition that like propelled Biden is now looking at Trump and the coalition and like the voters that essentially have been the heartbeat of Trump's coalition, older white voters.

Or sticking with Biden. I don't know. That, to me, seems crazy. But so that was the New York Times poll. What about what if the ABC Washington Post poll comes out in three weeks and says something completely different? Are we going to just keep keep losing our minds every time a new poll comes out before we even have a head to head race before the conventions, before a

a blitz of ad spending before the organizing. Oh my God, though, I think the ABC Washington Post poll was even worse, though. That one was really bad. You're not wrong in that all of these polls are bad. You can't say they're good. They're all bad for Biden. Yeah, they just keep getting worse. That's the trend. The trend is that they keep getting worse for Biden. That's the problem. Yeah, I agree. This is going to be a completely different conversation if

if Trump doesn't win the nomination. Trump's going to win the nomination. He's leading by 30 points. Yeah, but so was Hillary at this time in 2008. There has not been an election that I've either covered or worked in that has ended the way it started.

Just hasn't. Fair enough. Fair enough. And actually, the poll said that if Trump is convicted, he could lose about six points in those swing states. You also don't know if I believe that very much. You don't. Why don't you believe that? I don't know. I just don't think I don't think that his.

His supporters really care very much about external events. I don't think it really matters to them. But no, no, I'm going to challenge you on that. Then why did his support grow with each indictment? That obviously shows external events causing momentum. I see an eye roll. I don't know what to say about the guy that hasn't already been said. The cake is baked with Donald Trump.

His numbers are not going to move very much. It's just not. Like the cake is baked. He was pretty low though around the midterm elections. After the midterm elections, he was not doing well.

DeSantis was leading in New Hampshire and other states. This is politics. It's a horse race. It ebbs and flows. Isn't that the fun of it? Why do we care? Why do we care? Because somebody's got to win at the end. What are we trying to say? You've already said you think Trump's the nominee. I do think so. And you're right. Anything can happen in the same way that like I could. I don't want to say anything negative that

could happen. But yes, anything can happen. And it's Murphy's law. And clearly you've got a bunch of Democrats waiting for Joe Biden to slip. And let's talk about what we know. All right. Let's not talk about polls aside because polls, it's like the SAT, right? It tests how well you test. That's it. Polls test, they measure or survey public opinion based on how the public feels at this time.

So what we know is that independents fled Trump in 2018. They fled him in 2020. And with record high inflation, 40 year high inflation for all you people who think the economy is the reason why people vote, which I am not a believer in, that in 2022 with a record high inflation,

set this president up for a thumping worse than 2010 and 1994 and yet historic overperformance from Democrats because of one thing, Donald Trump and his candidates.

But he actually wasn't on the ballot that time. He was. He was everywhere. He was everywhere. He wasn't actually on the ballot, though. He was everywhere. He wasn't on the ballot in 2018. And the people that gave him a chance in 2016. But he was in the presidency. He was the president in 2018. Correct. But you are not choosing between anybody. This is a former president who has a record who is saturating.

the TV and online and digital media more so than the current president. The last election was not just was not really a referendum on the current president or current party in power. It was a referendum on the other president. It was a referendum on Trump, but it sounds like it's going to be a referendum on Biden. And there's weird nostalgia for Trump right now. It's not going to be a referendum on Biden. It's going to be a choice between two human beings. That's it. Two human beings.

That is the choice. There is nostalgia for Trump. So you believe, you really believe that Trump has picked up Democratic and independent voters. Is that what you're saying? I'm not saying Democrats, but he's clearly picked up some voters in the swing states. You think he's picked up independents? What has he done to pick up independent voters? Well, that's what the polling is showing. The polling is showing that he's picking up voters.

And Biden is losing voters. The polling is showing that he's picking up black and Hispanic voters. That is not what other focus groups have said. Did you see what the young voters did? You see what the independents in Bucks County told NBC about

Independents who voted for Trump and then voted for Biden, who don't want Biden to run, who think he's too old. They said they'd vote for Biden even if he was dead over Trump. In Bucks County, a swingiest of swing districts in the swingiest of swing states. Which is where you're from, right? Aren't you from Bucks County? No, I'm from a little north of Bucks County, but similar. Yeah, they're both swing counties. I'm just saying we can't... The poll is...

It's fine to poll. We all poll. We all take information. But let's not over extrapolate from a poll. It's fun to talk about where we are right now. And Biden is not polling very well, to say the least.

And you're right. It's not just one poll. It's every poll. Thank you for acknowledging it. Okay. It's true. But remember, I worked on that primary when we were always behind. We were always behind in fundraising or in every poll. We were behind Bernie Sanders or Pete Buttigieg or, you know, take your pick. It would change all the time. But, you know...

Polls are polls. Yeah, but the party coalesced around Biden. That's what happened. They did eventually, yeah. So it wasn't because Biden was really winning in the polls. It was because there was a coalescing. There was a party support, which is what is happening right now. It is exactly the same thing. But that's the point I'm making is that once we get through all this crap and the primaries and we have our two people, we have our head-to-head matchup, you're going to see coalescing on both sides.

You're going to see a coalesce and you're going to see the numbers congeal. Head to heads are going to be much closer. Ultimately, I think my biggest takeaway from the New York Times poll, my biggest fear and concern is not the head to heads. It is the favorable versus unfavorable. And for the first time, seeing Biden's unfavorables higher than Trump's and his favorables lower than Trump, that scares me because

his reputation, his integrity, and his likability was part of his strength.

And that that really scared me, because if you do look at the statewide campaigns in 2022, it didn't matter how close the camp, the head to head polling was, what was consistent in all those polls with Fetterman, Fetterman's race and Mark Kelly's race in Nevada's race, no matter how they polled head to head.

Republicans, their likability was always under the Democrat. Always. Do you think this is because the White House hasn't been fighting enough against impeachment and the impression that Biden has profited from his son's business dealings? You think that's why? I think that's a big part of it. I think that they've allowed narratives to...

congeal and settle in people's minds because they were not providing an alternative explanation to smears and conspiracy theories and lies and attacks on Biden and his family. And they've allowed the other side to sort of fill a vacuum. And it's done a lot of damage to the president's reputation, unfortunately. That's a really outdated way to

to respond to political attacks. Don't give it oxygen, blah, blah, blah. Ask Hillary and John Kerry about that. Yeah, Swift Boats, but her emails. Yeah, all of that stuff. Oh, don't give it oxygen. It just gives it credibility. Well, I mean, we're listening to like people like Jen Palmieri after the 2016 election and like Dan Pfeiffer and they would say,

Yeah, like maybe in another time that was the right strategy. It's not the right strategy in today's media environment. And the most telling, the most telling thing I've heard in politics over the last year was Jay Carney. Remember Jay Carney? Yes, of course. He was a White House press secretary under President Obama. Right. If you can remember him. Right. So Jay Carney in 2022, he was on this panel and he said...

He said the Bipartisan Policy Center, he says his biggest mistake, him and President Obama, their biggest mistake together, and they've talked about it subsequently, was laughing off and not taking birtherism seriously. It was the biggest mistake they've made because they thought there was going to be like an independent arbiter. The media come in and save them and say this is ridiculous. But we covered it. You guys covered it. We all covered it.

And it was the worst mistake they made because they believe that Carney said this. It's led to a lot of what we're seeing today and the rise of Donald Trump. Interesting. By not taking the birtherism stuff seriously and responding swiftly and forcefully. That's not happening in this White House. That's the biggest concern for you is seeing his unfavorables rise. There is no world we live in that says Joe Biden is

is more corrupt than Donald Trump, or that is that he has less integrity than Donald Trump. This is a guy universally known for his integrity. Say what you will about him. It's just, it blows my mind that that strength he carried is no longer a strength. And that bothers me.

There's no counterpunching. You've always called for more counterpunching. That is something I've heard from you all along. You've always been saying that. Yeah, I love something that Hillary said once, and she said it in 2008, but when you are attacked...

You have to deck your opponent. And you know who does that really well? Donald Trump. He doesn't just take a punch. He counter punches harder than the punch he receives. One more point on the poll before we move on that I thought was interesting.

Kamala Harris, she pulls higher than Biden on the ticket at the top of the ticket by like three points in those swing states, which I thought was interesting because she sort of gets, you know, she gets her fair share of criticism and seen as a drag on the ticket. But in fact, she pulls a little bit better. Would you make it odd? Sure. I was like surprised to see that number. I mean, again, like I didn't really take a look at like the breakdown of who was sampled.

But if there was one, that's good for Kamala. Right. Nikki Haley is a stronger candidate against Biden than Donald Trump. I believe that. I've said this before. I would not want to see President Biden face Nikki Haley in a general election. I just would not. DeSantis is not a stronger candidate than Trump against Biden. Not surprising since he's offering basically Trump light, right? Kind of. Only I still wouldn't want to see that contrast either. Just because of the age, probably.

Probably right. Each aesthetics. Yeah. I mean, like, I don't think like young family. I don't. Yeah. I think like imagery is often, again, I think politics is much more emotional than it is rational. So I don't know that there's always like, like a academic explanations for politics, because I don't know that like the entire electorate is as plugged in the way we are

who live and breathe this stuff are, but it's still a contrast that I wouldn't, wouldn't want to see. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. You know, for me, fitness has always been about finding that groove, whether it's hitting the pavement outside, which I've been allowed over dialing up a sweat session indoors.

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All right. I want to move on to President Obama. He had his reunion this weekend. And of course, whenever he speaks, it makes news, right? Former president, he sort of seemed to be taking a different tact when it comes to the war in Israel. This is a really touchy subject right now for the Democrats. It has sort of divided the party between the left and the right.

Not really the right, but yeah, the Democrats who are pro-Israel and then the left of the party, which has been calling for two state solution even further. You saw Rashida Tlaib putting out an ad basically calling on Democrats not to vote for Joe Biden, which is kind of surprising. He seems to be in a pickle. He is...

he has a much stronger relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu than President Obama did. And Obama had a different take on it. His words were, nobody's hands are clean, right? I mean, it's a lot easier to say that when you're not the president of the United States, right? But I was wondering what you think. And do you think that this contrast in messaging is just causing more headaches for Biden to have Obama sort of

coming out with a different tact. Is that a more unifying message for the party? I don't know. And I don't think that is really the way. I don't know if that is the best politics for Biden to pursue. And I don't think he is. I also don't think he would be surprised to hear Obama say that. Now, personally, I don't know if I believe Obama is right.

wrong. However, I feel like that was a great discussion for further down the road after we see the conclusion or see this war, you know, continue.

Because Biden, I think, is probably more popular than Netanyahu in Israel right now. I think he's been extraordinary in terms of how he's handled this so far. So, you know, I don't know if Obama, in theory, is wrong, personally. However, I don't think you're going to hear anything like that from Biden. Okay. Even as...

You hear the left, like increasingly becoming more critical of Biden. I mean, I think there are some times that Biden, there are some things that he will be more magnanimous on or he will work to bridge the divide. Israel, I don't think is one of those issues with him. He has a long history with Biden.

Israel, he was chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. His relationship with Bibi goes back to like the early 80s when Bibi was a staffer in D.C. Right. But Bibi is not popular anymore in Israel and he may not be around for much longer. But Biden has really strong feelings and loyalty towards the state of Israel. And

I just don't see him compromising that at all. So I wrote a piece this past week about how third parties could possibly help Biden in some ways, because the feeling around town is that these third parties will definitely just help Trump and hurt Biden. Right. But I was talking to James Carbill, always, you know, reliable for a few cracks. And he said that he was really worried that with the conflict in Israel, that,

It would help a third party candidate like Cornel West. And that, you know, it would just be another time when the left took votes from the party in a few crucial states, like what Jill Stein did to Hillary Clinton in Michigan, Wisconsin. And I don't know, like a year from now, do you think that the left will still be furious with Biden over his handling of the conflict? And that this...

this is just going to give them an outlet to go to a third party. I spoke to some of my Arab friends over the weekend who were like, I'm never voting for Joe Biden again. I don't see how Trump is a better outlet for their anger. But maybe they decide out of anger towards Joe Biden, they vote for Cornel West or some other third party candidate. I mean, what's your thinking? I don't doubt James Carville's concerns because he's James Carville. And I think he's incredibly smart.

So I tend to listen to what he says. And I do know just from friends on Capitol Hill who are in the Michigan delegation who are like, it is real. Like the anger in a state like Michigan where we won on the margins that can't afford to lose a constituency like the Arab community in Michigan. Dearborn. Yeah. Where Rashida Tlaib is from. Law.

Lots of places. There's a couple of areas of Michigan, right? If I'm not mistaken, but like, look, that could be, that could be a really big problem. I, again, I do think that when the stakes are clear and things aren't clear right now, it's just not, there's so much going on in the world. Um,

When the stakes are clear, I don't know if people will really have it in them to throw their vote away on a third party candidate and elect Donald Trump. They'd have to be really angry at Joe Biden. But would they really understand what they're doing? Because in the same way, you know, when they voted for Jill Stein, they didn't know that

perhaps that they were giving Donald Trump the presidency, right? It's an, you have to inform essentially. Look, everybody's responsible for their own votes. So, um, maybe that was a huge learning lesson. I don't know if it was or not. We'll see. But yeah, there's no question that Jill Stein did cost, cost Hillary, um, a lot of votes in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, for sure. It doesn't mean, um,

it was right for Hillary to stop polling in mid-October. And it was not right for Hillary to not visit those states in the final weeks. You know, there's strategic errors and then there are external events that you can't control.

But see. Yeah. Michael, thank you for coming on the show. Always love having you on. And I know the polls can be a sensitive thing, but... To me, they're sensitive for the people on Twitter on both sides, but they are what they are. I mean, I don't expect us not to have polls. I don't expect the campaigns to hire pollsters. We shall see. And I'll have to have you back on. All right. Thank you. All right. Bye.

Thanks again for listening to another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. I cannot do this without my amazing producers, Connor Nevins and Christopher Sutton. I'll be back on Thursday with some commentary on the GOP debate with one of my good friends, Julie Mason of Sirius XM Radio. Be lots of commentary about what will likely be...

Probably another cringe fest, another messy GOP debate. But who knows? I could be wrong. We'll see. Maybe we'll find a true leader of the pack of number twos who could take on Donald Trump. Anything can happen, right? It's politics. So I'll be back on Thursday with the latest wrap up. If you like my reporting, please sign up for my newsletter at puck.news slash Tara Palmieri. Please use the discount code Tara20.

And if you like this podcast, please rate it, subscribe, share it with your friends. I'll be back on Thursday. Thanks.