Harris Adviser John Anzalone on Who's Left of the Persuadables
48:28 Share

Did you know that scientific studies have found most people lie once every 10 minutes? In my new podcast, Truthless, I'm talking to people about the lies they tell, from faking illnesses in high-pressure moments to making up stories on national TV.

From Spotify and the Ringer Podcast Network, I'm Brian Phillips. Listen to Truthless on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. This episode is brought to you by the 2025 Lincoln Aviator SUV. Nice car. The 2025 Lincoln Aviator exudes confidence with its updated grille, headlamps, and daytime running lights powered by a twin turbocharged V6 engine.

It moves with commanding presence, a luxurious three-row interior, available massage seats, all that ensures you're revitalized for whatever comes next. Explore more at Lincoln.com. Some models, trims, and features may not be available or may be subject to change. Check with your local retailer for current information. Lincoln and Aviator are trademarks of Ford or its affiliates.

This episode is brought to you by Coca-Cola Creations. You love the taste of Coca-Cola and love the cookie crunch of Oreos. But what happens when the best drink and the best cookie in the world get together? The best becomes besties. Try the new Coca-Cola Zero Sugar Oreo Limited Edition. Besties for a limited time. Taste it while it lasts. Copyright 2024. The Coca-Cola Company. Copyright 2024. Mondelez International Group. ♪

I'm Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent, and this is Somebody's Gotta Win.

On this show, I have John Anzalone, a Democratic strategist and pollster who is advising the Kamala Harris campaign. Well, his partners at Impact Research, Molly Murphy and Matt Hogan, are part of Harris's campaign polling team. So he has all of the inside scoop. You know, on this show, we talk about

The closing arguments. How Kamala Harris can raise the stakes. Does she have to let go of joy as she leans into a darker message? How does she get these persuadable voters out? Who are the remaining persuadable voters? And who is she still having issues with?

We also talk about whether we should trust the public polling. It's a great episode, so definitely stick around. But first, I want to tell you about my latest reporting at Puck.News. I have some scoop from inside of Mar-a-Lago where Trump is in an uncharacteristically buoyant mood. He can be very grumpy at times, but he's convinced that he'll win and that the only

only way he could possibly lose is if his election integrity unit somehow fails him, if the Democrats somehow steal the election. So clearly he's laying the groundwork. But privately, he's been firing warning shots at Michael Watley, who is the co-chair of the RNC and is essentially running this election integrity unit. He's had to take on some real wackadoo election deniers like Christina Bob, who was indicted for trying to overturn the election results in 2020.

So it's already causing a lot of cold sweats. People are concerned that they will make up complete lies, like the voting machines are changing votes. Also, if you're interested in the power struggle going on within the campaign between Corey Lewandowski, who is Donald Trump's favorite yes man, and his co-campaign manager, Chris Lasavita, you should check out my piece.

Corey, who came onto the campaign saying that he was going to be the chairman who would run an audit to find out who was trying to make some money and milk the campaign for all it's worth, seems to have completed an audit and leaked it to the Daily Beast. It says that Chris LaCivita may have billed as much as $22 million to the campaign and netted as much as $5 million. My sources inside the campaign who have seen the invoices say that number is much lower. So you should definitely check out my piece for

all of the inside scoop inside of Trump world. You can go to puck.news slash Tara Palmieri to sign up for a subscription at Puck and you can get 20% off by using the discount code Tara20. That's uppercase T-A-R-A 20 for a full subscription at Puck News. I can promise you won't regret it. Okay, onward to the show with John Anzalone.

John, thanks so much for coming on the show. You must be very busy as an advisor to the campaign right now. Yeah, I would say more grumpy because, you know, this is where...

people like to call you and ask you what's going on and, you know, what do the polls say? And do you believe them? So it's more grumpy than anything. And what do you tell them when they ask who's going to win? Yeah. I mean, like, you know, I mean, we just came off of, you know, two elections that were decided by what 75,000 votes in three States and 45,000 votes in three States. And we're in the classic margin of error election, right? It's point and both, uh,

Campaigns really acknowledge that. And whether it's nationally or in individual battleground states, which, again, are all like plus one, you know, even minus one dependent states. You know, I think we're just we're going to be in that angst, regardless of which side you're on.

When you're in a margin of error election. And that's really all you can say. I think that if we've learned anything is that we really don't know who's coming out. Right. I mean, I think we were surprised by 16, surprised by 20. I don't think we were really surprised by 20. I thought we knew that Biden was going to want win 20. No, no, no. I don't mean that. I meant I was talking about the turnout.

oh the turnout yeah i think that there was surprise we thought i think that again just kind of the the the number of votes that trump got that he actually was able to expand you know his vote number we were two don't get me wrong i mean we saw what happened in 18. um and so we had a good um uh get out the vote effort right in terms of people to get out

but i think that each of those cycles we were surprised just by the number of people right makeup of the people um that he was able to get more people out and i think in 2024 we're even more of like okay not sure exactly who's coming out that the harris campaign has a unique opportunity um to bring it out more young people uh more um

more African-Americans, more women to literally change the math of the electorate. I mean, that's kind of what you hope to do in these moments. There's more, I think, momentum on her side, but also enthusiasm. And I think she has a better state operations. Right. Trump is kind of leasing his on the ground operation out to Americans.

You know, so I think that's just the situation we're in is we're going to all kind of be sitting here on election night and the day after and the day after and the day after knowing that it's going to be a close race. Right. But in 2020, Biden was able to take

some numbers away from Trump, right? He was able to take back some of those rural white voters. Do you think Kamala Harris will be able to do that this time around? I think the other number I would point out to his seniors, he really, he narrowed the margins with seniors and we know seniors vote like, right. I mean, they're a big punch. I was looking at some crosstabs,

in Pennsylvania the other day, and there's more voters in Pennsylvania over the age of 70 than there are 18 to 29 year olds. Right. And so let's not forget that. And, you know, you see widening gender gap, especially with groups like white college women. So, you know, when you're in these close elections,

You want to expand universes where you have strength, but you also don't want to get swamped in places that you know you're going to lose by big margins. I mean, Democrats have struggled

in rural areas and i always kind of use an example you know you don't want to be get beat 75 you know 25 you want your ass kicked just 70 you know 30 right like that uh really matters and america bridge showed that you can go into those kind of you know markets that are uh kind of

Obama-Trump counties that have trended his way and narrow the margin three, four, five percentage points. And cumulatively, it can mean

the difference between winning or losing. Okay. And so you think that she's doing better with seniors than Biden was? Well, I think that that is a really good group and she is, seniors have held. It was the one demographic that Biden never really lost out. And you got to remember, I mean, that's a group. I think there's a couple of things about seniors and I do a lot of polling for AARP with Tony Fabrizio, Trump's pollster. Um,

this is the universe that one, they're super highly aware, right? I mean, they pay attention. They watch the evening news every night. Unlike the millennials. They look at direct mail. I mean, like they, you know, like that. They answer the telephone.

And they look at AARP magazine, the top three magazines in the country are the top two are AARP entities. And the third one is Costco. Don't know if you know that. But anyway, my point is, is that the Biden-Harris administration is.

has these accomplishments, $35 insulin, right? I mean, negotiating with Medicare, $2,000 prescription drug yearly cap, uh, protecting social security. I mean, she just came out with a proposal to expand, um, Medicare to cover long-term care so people can stay in their homes. So I think that these are really important things that we kind of miss. There's not a lot of talk about seniors, and I think this has been a strong group and she may expand with seniors. Um,

And again, they show up. And I think there is a sense from what I've seen in focus groups that they're, you know, senior. Trump is just not their type of Republican. Right. I'm like, it's a different. Right. I mean, you know, his values, his morals, he's just a liar, et cetera, et cetera. So they're more than Nikki Haley voter, essentially, that you can win over with the seniors like the soft Republican and the senior groups. Yeah. I mean, listen, I, you know, again, I guess my bigger point is you have to play, you know, you got to go everywhere because.

Because, again, everyone's trying to improve on the margins with every demographic group. And that becomes really important when you have two past elections that were so slim and you know that you're in a margin of error election. OK, since we're talking about voter groups, do you think she really has a problem with black voters? Well, I mean, I think, listen, she's getting...

a big super majority with voters of black voters. I think that when you analyze black voters, you have to realize that any bleed movement away from Democrats predates Harris, predates Biden, that this has been moving along or going along for a long time. So this isn't what I would call a Kamala Harris problem, et cetera. I mean, we've seen gradual movement

Um, you know, I think he got whatever, 5% and then 8% and et cetera, et cetera. Um, I think that again, this is what paid communications for in the final two weeks. This is what get out the vote is for. This is what trying to expanding your basis for. Um, and I think that at the end of the day, what we will see, what we're seeing in some of the public polls won't be as big in terms of what Trump gets. Um,

At the end of the day, I think when we see election poll results and I think we see analysis, which is even better by catalyst, et cetera, we'll see that number lower than what we're seeing in polls. Yeah, it's mostly black male voters that she's. Yeah, I mean, it is black male voters. And, you know, we want to believe that every demographic group, ethnic group, racial group, gender group is homogeneous and it's not. And, you know, I get that.

kind of insulting, right? Just because you and I are both Italians or half Italians. That's right. We're not all the same. We were a big Democratic bloc. John Anzalone. We were a big Democratic bloc and now all my uncles vote for Trump. That's just kind of rough. And like to pepper me with anti-Whitmer comments. But I mean, because they all live in Michigan. But I mean, again, I think that

these trends tend to be Trump specific. And you can talk to a psychologist about that rather than a pollster of why that may or may not be. You know,

you know, we seem to talk less about white male voters who also glob on to Trump, um, because of some of the same dynamics. I think white male voters have long been Republican. No, I'm talking about younger white male. I'm sorry. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, not until recently, if we talked about, I mean, I think we should be talking about younger black, uh,

men and younger white men almost together in the same story, because I think it's some of the same traits and characteristics, both whether it's economic or whether it's, you know, traits like, you know, the alpha male, yada, yada, the strength stuff, um, or just flat out effing misogyny, right. Um, uh, and sexism. And, and so, you know, uh, and, and racism. So again, a lot going on with every demographic group, uh,

But at the end of the day, you know, it's going to all happen in two weeks. OK, I'm going to ask you about one more group, Catholic voters. Do you think Kamala Harris has a problem with them over abortion? No, listen, I think that the numbers I've seen, not from the Harris campaign and I don't you know, I'm a fallen Catholic. So I've moved from Catholicism to Episcopalianism to, you know, anyone who would take me. Buddhism now or?

you know as long as it's just not hypocritical of you know jesus's gospel teachings i'm kind of good with right um tim alberta great book you know uh read tim alberta's book um

But no, I don't. Listen, I think that, you know, other than looking at evangelicals and Pentecostals, which are just, you know, whatever, 78 percent for Trump, I think it's a little more difficult to look at individual denominations. I mean, again, you're talking about us being Italian American. There was a time when Catholics were, you know, Democratic and that stuff moves around. I mean,

you know even hispanic catholics moving to you know evangelical we see a big move um so no i don't think that she has a catholic problem um i think that there are single issue voters and on abortion if you take a look at um her gender gap with women and the gender gap with college educated women um

You know, do we lose some Catholics? Yes. But even with older women, you know, we see that Roe or reproductive rights is a really intense, important issue. And so, you know, I think that this is not only a net plus. I think that is probably one of those issues.

that is really tough to pull. Like it's tough to pull that, hey, if you have an abortion referendum on the ballot in Nevada, what's that gonna mean on election day? Even when the constitutional amendment referendum was on the ballot in 2022 with Whitmer,

I think we undervalued it, what it was going to be on election day. You know, sometimes you just can't get that in polling. And so I think it's one of the, you know, one of the variables out there that, um, you know, we're going to, we're going to find out an election day, quite frankly. Okay. Who do you think are the persuadable voters that are out there? Well, I mean, we kind of know, you can see it from public polling, internal polling, all that type of stuff. I mean, it doesn't change all that much. I mean, you know, they're under 50. Um,

They're, you know, disproportionately white, non-college educated women. I mean, that's kind of a big universe, not exclusively white. There's, you know, certain, certainly some people of color in that universe as well, which is why I think that at the end of the day, Kamala Harris will get more of African-Americans. I mean, there's still some people hanging out there for Cornell West, or if you're in Michigan and, you know, RFK juniors on the ballot, you know what I'm saying? Like at the end of the day,

I think that that they're doing a really good job of communicating to African-Americans and other groups. So, you know, I think that I think that that will all work itself out. OK, so in these final weeks of the election, I am seeing a much darker tone. I mean, Trump has been dark always. Yeah. American carnage is really leaning into immigration crime, you know,

You know, the reporting is that he believed that that helped him in 2016, the wall, that that was a strong message, even stronger than the economy, even though, you know, Americans rank the economy higher when they're polled as in terms of like what's most important to him. So clearly he sees like a scary contrast message as something he wants to lean into. At the same time.

Harris came out joy, change, and that was her opening message, right? And now she seems to be in contrast mode, which is like,

This is going to be really scary under Trump. He's reckless. He's dangerous. And it's really the democracy messaging, right? He's a dictator. She's talking about the enemy within. She's rolling the tape on him saying that he wants to, you know, get the National Guard to round people up. And I'm wondering what you think about this, this messaging, because it's

I remember when Biden was running, there was like a consensus that the democracy messaging, it just wasn't working and that voters weren't ranking democracy high enough. And I see her

her message is like sort of adjacent, but maybe, maybe it's different. It's certainly a, a scare, like it's a scary message. It's a dark message. And is this like a way to persuade voters? What are you seeing in her messaging in these, in this final week? I think there's a natural evolution to messaging in presidential campaign. I mean,

I mean, if you look at, you know, even Obama, 2012, it was, you know, a lot about, you know, Romney's statements about the, you know, whatever the 43% or whatever the number was. He was the scary Bain private equity executive. Right. Going to take all your money. And yeah. But my point is, is that, you know, Trump is playing to his base. Um,

Again, I'm not saying we're just playing to our base. There's independents and undecideds out there. There's a certain PTSD that needs to be engaged with voters. And I think that that's really important. It's been well documented and written about that there's a certain amnesia about Trump.

And I do think that people need to be reminded about his behavior and that can be behavior, you know, like, you know, the fact he wants to do chlorine or whatever, or stupid statements like that. Right. You know, it could be about mistakes. Like that's what you're doing. It could be about January 6th. It could be about, you know, Republicans who work super closely with him, like Mark Esper, the, uh, you know, uh,

the, the, uh, defense, uh, cabinet secretary who says he'll be a threat. So there's a lot of ways to go about this and attack it. I think it's smart. Um, I think at the end of the day, it's what's at stake and what's at stake is, you know, waking up and having the anxiety of, you know, another president Trump and what he's going to say, what he's going to do, what he's going to tweet. Um,

And that is anxiety filling. And I think that that's at the end of the day, one of the reasons that she's going to win, you know, again, she's the future, he's the past, but he's also part of the past that you have to remember how fucking horrible it was, you know,

uh, during his four years. So I don't think that that's unusual. I think that he's playing to his base. Cause again, he wants to get out his vote. I think he's a little worried about whether, you know, cause they don't have state operations and they're leasing it out to the Elon Musk of the world that, you know, is, is there a fatigue out there? Um,

um, anecdotally you hear that, right? Um, is there a Trump fatigue where his vote isn't going to turn out like it has in the past? Um, and you know, you have to have an operation and a mechanism to do that. So, um, I think that these, these messages on both sides make complete sense. It's usually what happens at the end of both campaigns. Uh, and I think what, um, Kamala Harris is running is really smart. Um,

including the reproductive rights ads that she has up. Again, that is not only an individual issue that's really important, it's a freedom issue.

as well. It's a social issue. It's an important reproductive issue. So it hits a lot of important traits. Is it because voters don't know enough about Kamala Harris, these undecideds, that they basically need to be scared into not voting for Trump? Well, I think they're also learning something about Kamala Harris. Like, right. I mean, they're they're learning about, you know, I

I mean, there's ads up right now that talk about the contrast of her being for the people and him, you know, basically being for himself and just going to raise or just going to give, you know, billionaires and big corporations, you know, a tax cut. He says it, I mean, it's a video of him. So I think they're learning about, they're learning plenty about her and her agenda in terms of what she wants to do for the middle class. Um,

and I think there was a word cloud today, uh, about each of them and his, the number one word I think was lies, you know, which is good. And, um, you know, I think for her, you could see for the people and interviews, I mean, like, you know, she'd be given a lot of interviews. If you ever, um,

There was a lot of doubt out there about all the interviews she's given. We'll take a look at the word cloud today that shows interviews. So people are seeing them and it's important. And so people are learning about Kamala Harris a couple of different ways, some in her ads, including the contrast ads. And she's out there touching people's

you know, with all these interviews and podcasts that have a really wide reach. So you think this is the right closer? Yeah, I think she's, you know... What would you call it? Is it like democracy...

kind of chaos stakes or how would you describe this closer? Listen, I think that if you, if you go state by state battleground state by battleground state, you know, we're in a time when there's not necessarily this, you know, for either campaign, these broad messages, you're talking to a lot of different people, a lot of different targeted people. And so, and you know, some of her TV ads, you're seeing the agenda that she's going to, um,

she's talking about her agenda when she's president, right. And for the middle class and some she's talking about, or other people are talking about, you know, reproductive rights and some of the ads you're talking, you know, you're seeing a very, again, middle-class message that she going to be for the rich and give them tax breaks because he's a billionaire and she's going to be for the people. And then some of them you're again, igniting that PTSD. That's

That's really important. But it's not just on democracy so much. It's on threat. You know, again, it's on the threat that he imposes as well as the instability in the you know, I don't it shouldn't be lost on us that, again, the anxiety that he creates in people's lives. How high is immigration and border security as a voter issue, though? I think they rank it.

higher

Yeah, you know, you mentioned democracy, which I think is, you know, it's just kind of too broad of a topic, but it's higher among Democrats. And, you know, everyone kind of gave President Biden hell about, you know, why he gave a democracy speech in October 2022. And then when we did post-election polling for AARP, it was the number one issue for seniors and for, or number two issue for seniors, but the number one for Democrats. So,

My point is, is that democracy, depending on how you want to the threat of to democracy is a really intense issue for Democrats.

Immigration, super intense issue or border, really not immigration, border, super intense issue for Republicans in the crosstabs. We're in the last two weeks. This is about getting your vote out. So you're going into your bases and you're going into your voters to try to get them out. Yeah. And I don't get what about persuadables? What are you seeing? Well, that was my I was going to finish by saying it's not exclusively that these are also important issues for independents. And they're hearing that.

This episode is brought to you by Amazon Business. We all need more hours in the day, right? Well, Amazon Business gets it. They've got super smart business buying solutions that make the admin stuff a breeze. That means you can spend less time buried in paperwork and more time growing your business. That's pretty smart. Head over to amazonbusiness.com and see what smart business buying is all about.

This message is a paid partnership with Apple card. If you want to take control of your finances, Apple card is where it starts. It's a credit card that can give you up to 3% daily cash back on every purchase. And I've had it for a few years. First of all, great. If you're buying anything from Apple, iPad, computer, whatever phone, but, uh,

This daily cash just pops back up. All of a sudden you're like, wait, what's that balance? I'm going to use that. Super easy to use, super easy to make payments, and super easy to understand that 3% daily cash back on your purchases is a really nice perk. Apply for an Apple Card today. It's easy. Just go to the Wallet app on your iPhone. Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Salt Lake City branch. Terms and more at applecard.com.

Oh, it's such a clutch off-season pickup, Dave. I was worried we'd bring back the same team. I meant those blackout motorized shades. Blinds.com made it crazy affordable to replace our old blinds. Hard to install? No, it's easy. I installed these and then got some from my mom. She talked to a design consultant for free and scheduled a professional measure and install. Hall of Fame's son? They're the number one online retailer of custom window coverings in the world. Blinds.com is the GOAT!

Shop blinds.com right now and get up to 45% off select styles. Rules and restrictions may apply. What do you think of the public polling right now? Well, that's partially why I'm grumpy. And so, you know, you're just going to make me grumpier because, you know, I've said it a million times. I'm on the record that.

There's just this flood of polls, and 90% of them are shitty, and they're bad methodology. Media concerns don't spend a lot of money on polling. Polling is expensive. It's hard to do right the correct way.

You know, so many of these public polls are using opt in panels that are totally ragged out, who have, you know, you know, 40 something percent of people who take them, you know, take at least one a day. I mean, like, you know, it's just it's a problem.

but it's not my problem, you know, to, to, Oh, it is my problem because we get the demerits for it at the end of the day. But I, everyone, I feel like everyone kind of knows this now, right? How do you get the demerits from it? You know, each cycle, um,

depending on how bad the public pollings are off or whatever, or misanalysis, the political professional pollster, and we don't really show our polls publicly, get tagged as if everything was wrong. And so it is what it is. I've been in this business for 40 years.

I teach my people, trust your own polls. Internally, what we do as political pollsters is so different what media pollsters do. And we're all going to sit there and angst over

public polls for the next two weeks. And you want us to try to explain that. And it, you know, that's why I'm grumpy today. Okay. So what are you seeing in your polls? That is not reflecting. I can't talk about my internal polls. I'm just saying that, you know, um, the, the methodology, especially panels, um,

I think is suspect. I think that often they're way too rosy. They get too many college educated voters or whatever, whatever. Again, it's not for me to have to like constantly dissect public polling. I think that what we all need to know, which you see is this is a toss up election. And if you see that in the public polling, too, I understand. I'm just I'm not I'm not trying to give you a view into the difference of what I see because they're there for clients and the public polling.

But the fact is, is that we should get into this mindset that this is a margin of error race like it was for the last two times. And if Trump is up plus one in a battleground state and Harris wins it by plus one, that's not polling error. That's just, you know, math. It's statistics. And, you know, we're all going to probably be sitting around waiting a long time for election results, which I think both campaigns are prepared to do. How long? What?

I don't know. I mean, what, Pennsylvania was called on a Thursday? Yeah, that's a long time. And I think that if Kamala Harris wins the three blue walls and the main in Nebraska, she gets 270. So that's different than the Biden world where he won –

you know, more than 270. And so it was called on Thursday. And so there's all these different kind of combinations of states, not many combinations, but a few combinations. If you lose on Michigan, you can pick up Georgia, right? Because it's 15 electoral votes and 16 electoral votes. So, you know, it could be longer. I mean, we know that, you know, Pennsylvania takes a while to count. Um,

Maricopa County is a fucking disaster and it can take forever. I mean, just think we did Kyrsten Sinema and it took a couple of weeks to

And so depending on the state that is, you know, is working to get you the 270, it could be a long time. Just back to your numbers really quick. Do you have different numbers on the economy? I mean, I think, you know, cost, I think everyone knows and acknowledges that the cost of living is, you know, the top issue. And I think that what's important is it's almost every demographic group that, you know, the inflation of, you know,

know 2021 2022 you know it's kind of a traumatic event in people's lives and we know that people rate the economy based on the cost of living um you know inflation's gone down and that's really important um but the fact is is that you know it doesn't mean that lingering costs go down and that that's a reality what about right track and wrong track what are your numbers look like for that i think that right track wrong track has become kind of um

It used to be a really important. I mean, is the country on the right track or on the wrong track? Yeah, right. But it used to be a really important diagnostic and it's kind of become a political diagnostic. Even job rating on the economy has, you know, it's like if you have a Democratic president, Republicans are going to score it negatively. If you have a Republican president, you know,

Democrats are scoring it negatively. And so there's just certain diagnostics that have almost become a political football rather than telling you what's really helpful as a pollster or an analyst. So, you know, you might you might look at other things. OK, so I had Trump's pollster John McLaughlin on my show last week, and he said that they were going to win all seven battleground states. What do you think? You know, I've worked a lot. I actually, you know, I consider Tony Fabrizio

uh, Trump's pollster. But, um, and, and my guess, I mean, they worked together on, they worked together on his most recent. Actually though, John has worked with tone with Trump for longer than Tony has. Right. But, but, uh, I was just being funny, I guess, apparently it wasn't funny. But for the listeners who don't get that, I don't even know. I think that, you know, but, but I, you know, I'm not going to speak for Tony, but I don't think he, anyone, any pollster, uh,

uh, uh, would go on and say something like that. I think that, you know, again, I'm not going to sit here and predict, I don't think it's, it's the, what is exactly what we should be doing. We're not pronosticators as much as we are strategic consultants and message development, um, experts, uh, for our candidates, um,

And to go on and say, you're going to win all seven. They put out a memo showing that they were going to win all seven. Great. Super. Within the margin of error though. Yeah. Happy for them. I can't, you know, hopefully that bites them back in the ass and we'll, we'll see soon enough. Are there any States that you're feeling really good about?

the fact is, is that every state is a toss up. I mean, every state is a plus one or a dead even. And that means, you know, I'm kind of just a, I'm a really big believer in math, like, right. Statistical relevance and, you know, what a margin of error means. And so if you're within the margin of error, you don't predict that you're going to win all seven because quite frankly, that means you can lose all seven because you're within the margin of error. Um, and so, um,

you know overconfidence is not a place where i think democrats have learned we should be and so what we have learned is it's all hands on deck and you go out there and you work your ass off for the for the you know the last 15 days um and you build on your strengths and i think right now

Our state-by-state operation is our strength, and we've got to change the math, and we've got to get a shit ton of people out to do that. And I think we're in a position to do that. It is really funny because...

Republicans do always beat their chest and say, we're going to win. They're very bullish, always ahead of an election. And they tend to be disappointed. I think that reality is what's important. And the reality is the last two elections in this election probably won't look all that different in terms of, again,

how close this race is going to be. General Malley Dillon has said it in her memos, right? And I don't think that she said... Since when Biden was in the race. Yeah, well, okay. Thanks for that. But I mean, I think that, you know, again, she's a realist. She is also extremely talented and, you know, built a plane while it was flying in 2020 and has built, you know, an army in 2024 having to change...

You know, in July. So, you know, this this just it's going to be what we've seen in the last couple of years. So Debbie Dingell, the congresswoman from Michigan, she sort of raved, waved the red flag about Michigan. She says she's really worried about it on John Holliman's show. He's my colleague at Puck.

Do you think she's right? I mean, you're from Michigan. What's what are you seeing? Listen, I think that everyone started out understanding that the dynamics in a place like Michigan where, you know, over 50 percent of the electorate is white working class voters that.

You have the largest Arab American population outside the Middle East. And they might not vote for Harris. Yeah. I mean, and so, you know, again, if you don't think you're going to get what Biden got, then you have to go out there and expand the vote. And I think that the team understands that is and is going after that. And so, again, you kind of understand the challenges early on. This is not news two weeks out. Plus, like you've got Jill Stein courting the Palestinian voters. Right.

Yeah, and RFK is still on the ballot and all that bullshit. So, I mean, you know, so you kind of understand the challenges and I think that they've done

uh, uh, you know, an expert job to, to, um, to deal with that both in their political operation. Um, they've got really talented guys, Mike Froese alone and Ed Duggan who are leading the effort there. Uh, you have governor Whitmer who's, you know, working her ass off there, just did a big bus trip, uh, et cetera, mayor Duggan, who, um, is excellent at this as well. So, you know,

mean you just like michigan is one of those states where you know lost it by narrowly in 216 won it by what over 100 000 votes in 2020 it's probably going to look like more like 16 because of the dynamics

of what's going on. And Trump has used electric vehicles as kind of a cudgel there, et cetera, et cetera, over the last year. So a more challenging place. But, you know, Georgia, I think, is, you know, even a better place for us than,

in 2020, and we won that by 13,000 votes, 29% of the electorate African-American, the fastest growing Hispanic and Asian population, a very high universe of college educated voters, including the highest of African-American voters of any battleground states. And so again, I think that there's real opportunities

in Georgia here. Are you basing that on early turnout votes? No, I don't look at early turnout. I haven't looked at it. I literally hit the delete button when I get early turnout analysis because, you know, it's like,

I mean, why are we looking at it? It's it always really doesn't make sense. It's like you don't know whether you're canalizing votes. You're comparing it to 2020, which was a COVID year. I just I'm telling you, everyone, save yourself a lot of pain and angst and do not look at early vote returns.

Okay, I want to talk to you about a Senate race that you're working on that might determine the control of the Senate. Jon Tester, right? Are you working on Tester's race? I'm not. That's my partner, Mark Murphy and Brian Stryker. So you should probably talk with them about it. He's a tremendous guy and we need people like Jon Tester in the U.S. Senate.

We're also, I mean, you know, again, we're also doing Melissa Slotkin and some work for the Senate Majority PAC as well. So, you know, we're all around. Do you think Tester can pull off a miracle? Well, I'll tell you what, if there's anyone that can pull off a miracle is Jon Tester, because he's just so absolutely unique. He's just so Montana. He looks like a firecracker.

Nebraska. I mean, you've got to love Osborne. I mean, this guy is the real deal. I mean, he reminds you of the independence that you saw when Angus King came on the scene and made things like that. I mean, this guy could really pull up an upset. And it's because he's the real deal. Yeah, it just seems hard. I've talked to some very senior Democrats who pretty much feel like Tessar's a goner, but...

It's hard to outrun Trump in Montana. Yeah. And he's a good candidate. So do you have any insight into like what the campaign was thinking when they thought that Harris should sit down with Brett Baer last week? No, I mean, I'm just not involved in that. But, you know, again, I think it's a winner because, you know,

The fact is, is that you've got to go everywhere. Like in close elections, you've got to communicate to everywhere. And I think, you know, I think she gave a good interview. And I think that, you know, people look at all of these interviews, whether it's that or 60 Minutes or the or the radio shows like Stein or the podcast, etc.,

This is one of the main ways that you communicate to real voters, especially young voters. And again, I will point you to the word cloud. I'll send it to you today. Where when you ask about what you've seen about Kamala Harris, an interview is like, I think the biggest word. So all those doubters about, you know, her going on all of these interview shows or the podcast or the radio shows,

people are learning things about her. And you said something earlier that people need to learn more about her. Well, they are. And so,

Whether it's a TV ad or a digital ad, that's just one mode to communicate. I think they've done a brilliant job in terms of the comm shop of getting her where she needs to know so other people can hear that don't normally see her on digital or TV. What do you think they learned about her from Brett Baer? I would say the main thing that they learned about Brett Baer...

is that she's a tough SOB. Yeah, I felt the same way. I was like, damn, she's got some good prosecutorial skills. Right, I think that the press- I wouldn't mess with her. Yeah, I wouldn't mess with her. I think that the fact is, is that-

You know, she's an African-American, East Asian woman running for president. We all know what that means. And she has certain, you know, bars to hit. And, you know, the fact is she was a prosecutor and she she was a great congressional interrogator. And people are learning about that when, you know, she goes on something like Fox TV. How are you feeling today if the election were held today?

I think she pulls it out because I think that we're going to have, we have a superior state by state field operation. I think that that stuff matters. I think that the enthusiasm, which you can see in like this army of thousands and thousands of volunteers that she has brought out since she's been the nominee matters. I think door knocking matters, right. And touching real people matters. And yeah,

You know, the fact is, is that I think she's also doing a good job of communicating and both what she's going to be, what she wants to do as president, but also back to engaging the PTSD of Trump. And I told you that I wasn't going to pronunciate and then you made me pronunciate. So now I'm even grumpier.

Well, I've been reporting on this for a while. The Elon Musk bromance might not be that great for Trump because he did off source his ground operation to Musk, who has really he's not a political scientist. He hired a bunch of former DeSantis staffers who really failed at a ground operation in Iowa. They spent one hundred and thirty million dollars in Iowa and lost by 30 points, spending like sixty seven hundred dollars per vote.

And I've been getting calls all weekend about this mess in Wisconsin voting, like registration, just failures from canvassers to register voters. Obviously, there's issues in Pennsylvania. They are just really struggling with get out the vote. And they started kind of late because they fired a bunch of canvassers back in August and September. So it does seem like

You know, having dismantled the RNC back in 2020 was not a great move. And now they're paying for it in this election. And when I mean dismantled the RNC, I mean the ground operation and basically relying on these super PACs. Amen. Amen. I may report on it for Puck this week, but some of the stories that I've been hearing are just...

Pretty wild. And you get a sense that there's fatigue out there on him. I mean, and totally you pick it up as well. So that's why you're leaning into that messaging right now. Well, I'm not, I mean, again, I'm not making decisions for the, I'm not talking specifically about the Harris. I mean, I don't, I'm not part of the decision-making process is what I'm saying, but yeah,

I'm just saying, anecdotally, you hear about it as well. I mean, just even, you know, in each of these states, oh, there's not, there's not as many people who are willing to put signs up for Trump. There's not, you know, there's, you know, people, you know, you are saying that they won't vote for him, et cetera, et cetera. I mean, you know, I mean, and his rallies, right. I mean, his rallies are definitely, he is in the double, you know, he's like, you know, in baseball, you have, you know, the double a league. I mean, he's kind of doing double a, um,

uh rallies now and you know um uh harris is still you know in the show i mean she's still doing major league baseball rallies yeah i think it's for people who are still saying they don't know enough about harris it's probably a good counter message for her because i mean

They just haven't. They just don't know her. You know what I mean? It's like the devil, you know, and then she's got to remind them of like the devil you don't know. Well, here, let me let me remind you about the devil, you know. But I think that it's really important that that a majority of people do know her. I mean, like, you know, she for two months was dominating. She was the new nominee, was dominating LBGTQ.

media. Right. And yes, there's still a universe of people who don't know her. It's bigger than Trump. But the fact is, is that a super majority of people do know her and have a good feel for her. So, yeah, there's still people who don't know her. But again, it's not like we're dealing with, oh, my God, 60 percent of people don't know her. That's just not the case. OK. What percentage do you think still feel like they don't know Kamala Harris well enough?

a month ago, it was like, whatever, said that they would want more information on, or it was like 35%. You know, do I think that there's a, you know, 20% of the people who wish they knew more about her? Yes. But that's not all that unusual. Even

With Joe Biden being vice president for eight years and a senator for so many decades before that, we saw in 2020 that people really didn't know much about him. I think what she has done and the campaign has done in a very short period of time is one of the things you brought up, prosecutor, one of the things that people do know about her as a prosecutor. And if you wanted one thing to know, that would be a damn good thing to know. And so I think that they've done a good job at that. All right.

Great, John. Thanks so much for coming on the show. I'm sure you're very busy, so we appreciate your time. And I hopefully check in with you after the election.

That was another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. I'm your host, Tara Palmieri. I want to thank my producers, Christopher Sutton and Connor Nevins. If you like this show, please subscribe, rate it, share it with your friends. If you like my reporting, go to puck.news slash Tara Palmieri and sign up for my newsletter, the best and the brightest. You can use the discount code Tara20, that's uppercase T-A-R-A 20 for 20% off a subscription at Puck. See you on Thursday.