Emergency Pod: A Post Debate Meltdown
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Hi, I'm Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent, and this is a special edition of Somebody's Gotta Win. I promised you that if there was an emergency, I would drop in like a parachute and break down this...

This presidential debate. I don't know why I thought that this might not be a monumental moment. And it's an exciting version of Somebody's Gotta Win because I am collaborating with Mosh from Mo News, who's a longtime friend of mine, amazing journalist who's just killing it in the digital content creating podcast game. Mosh, thank you for doing this with me. I'm so happy that we get to share feats in a weird way. This feels so intimate. Yeah.

*laughs*

Tara, I'm so excited for this joint edition of Somebody's Gotta Win and the Mo News podcast. We were messaging just before the debate. We had no idea what was about to unfold last night and where the world would be this morning. As I was telling folks, you know, yesterday ahead of the debate, I was like, well, this there is a shot that this could be really significant. And it could also it could also not matter at all. And it turned out it was the first one. And it told it turned out it was the first one.

You know what? I wrote a pre-debate roundup for Puck and I spoke to people from across the political spectrum and I wanted really their real feelings about this. Like they're on background and deep background type feelings. They wouldn't, you know, put their names attached. And the final two lines of the story were, okay. And, and these were, and this was the final two words of my pre-debate primer. Okay. And it's from a democratic operative.

He said, quote, Biden cannot look feeble or lost. It will set off a Chernobyl-like reaction in the Democratic Party, period. And the nuclear meltdown has unfolded over the last 12 hours.

Right. And here we are just like in our radioactive gear, trying to explain it to everyone because we're very close to it all, getting the incoming text messages and panic and franticness and all of it. I mean, even if I wanted to be on vacation, my phone would not let me. We should know Tara is in Spain right now. She crossed the Atlantic. She was still doing reporting. The first answer out of the gate last night, Tara, you know, Biden's already clearing his throat at 9.01 p.m. And

they had to already be texting each other like, oh my God.

His voice sounded so gravelly, and I know they put it out really quickly that he had a cold. But that's been the thing about him for the past three years or four years, because I watched the 2020 debate this week just because I don't like myself at all and want to spend time just, you know. But no, I just really wanted to see them. And four years ago, he was a totally different guy, way more spry. His voice was higher up. He just moved in a different way. He was louder. He just had more, like...

I don't know how to describe it, but he was just, he, he had more command. And when I heard his voice in the first few seconds, I was like, Whoa, he sounds totally different. He's speaking out a whisper. Like it's his last words.

And I was like, am I hearing this right? Like I played around with the volume. I was just like, is something happening? Is there a glitch going on? Right. And this is a TV studio, right? This is a CNN TV studio where everything should be optimized. You know, it was among the people who tweeted very early, Andrew Yang, who ran against him in the Democratic primary in 2020. One of his first tweets last night was, look, I debated Joe seven times in 2020. He's a different guy in 2024. Yeah.

He is. I mean, it's hands down. Like if you also want to spend, waste your time, I would go back and look at 2020 or at least a clip of,

totally different person. I was shocked. And I think that's part of the thing. We don't see a lot of Joe Biden. We see him in controlled settings. We see him doing clips and doing some speeches that are highly planned. We don't really see him out there extemporaneously. I don't know how much of that was just a cold. He just sounded like he was... His voice quivered. It was not

a man that was in command, he looked feeble and old. And I just thought, oh my God. And you know, with these things, how long, I mean, you're executive producer of a major network. Like how long do people really tune in for these kinds of events?

I mean, it really depends on the nature of it. Usually the back half gets less viewership as people tune out. And maybe that's what, you know, some Democrats are praying for today. But the thing is, and this is something we talked about going into the debate, far more Americans are going to get their take and process this debate through social media clips than by actually watching it live. And I guess that's the question, which is,

on social media, you know, how viral are the clips of, you know, some of Biden's answers? And I think that speaks to the larger issue, which is like, so he had a cold. A cold doesn't, having a cold doesn't mean you lose the ability to, you know, give basic thoughts about your policy, to be able to respond on certain questions, to say things like we beat Medicare. I mean, there were a bunch of lines from him last night. You know, you don't continually confuse numbers when you have a cold.

So I'm curious, you know, I want to start with,

He wasn't able to finish off sentences. That was the problem. Like I had a hard time understanding him at times. And like, I'm there wanting to desperately understand so I can explain it to other people. Like if you're only half tuned in, which is how most people are. And I go, when I go back to this like silly cliche, like, but it's so true. It's not what you say. It's how you say it. But it was not even just how you say it. Like it was what he was saying too. Like if you read it in closed caption, which I started reading,

reading it on because I was having a hard time understanding a lot of it. And not just from Joe Biden, like Trump rambles and he's all over the place from time to time and he'll stop in the middle of the sentence mid-thought and move on to something else. But it felt like more pronounced from him because of the stuttering, the pausing and the obvious confusion. Like there was obvious moments that were like,

wait, I'm trying to form a thought. I can't remember it. I know some of this, it's been rehearsed, but I'm not really sure if I'm using it in the right place, the right time, which makes me realize like they did rehearse him a lot. Maybe they, maybe they,

Did you rehearse it? I mean, that's some of the pushback. I'm already seeing a piece in Axios on Friday morning. You know, the finger pointing has begun between advisors. I mean, we should we should let people know, like Biden spent a week at Camp David preparing for this while Trump was still doing his campaign events, et cetera. I mean, they made a point of secluding him for a week. And in the Axios piece, they say that what he needed was rest.

not preparation. A couple of things to keep in mind. You know, I think the press has gone easy on him. You know, we've both covered the White House. Biden has done fewer press conferences than any other modern press. He passed up the Super Bowl interview, the gimme 10 minute interview, where like half of it is talking, I mean, he probably could have had Gayle King. Half of it's like talking about like his favorite Super Bowl recipes. He passed up the opportunity to go before 50 to 100 million Americans. You know, it was a head scratcher.

And they were like, oh, well, people don't want to hear about politics anyway. I just want to remind my audience that Moshe was the executive producer of CBS Evening News. So he knows this world better than anyone in terms of like- I negotiated with multiple White Houses, the Trump White House and the Obama White House on Super Bowl interviews. And I will tell you this, like, you don't say no to the Super Bowl interview. And that was like, well, they don't trust him for 10 minutes. And he's been doing, you know, he did-

you know, he's been avoiding critical media, you know, to the point where like the New York Times is, you know, he hasn't given any of the New York Times, but beyond that, which is crazy. It's a sit down interview. Like you just sit, you literally every president in modern history has given the New York Times interview. In fact, like I will say one thing. I covered the Trump White House and like, yes, he was like abusive to the press and he was not like physically, but you know what I mean? In his language. And he lied. Fake news, fake news, fake news. But he was like talking to you guys every day.

Every day. In fact, like he didn't even really want a press secretary. He was like, I'm happy to just take questions, like bring them into the Oval Office. And so there was never a moment of like we always had access. And I feel like for a while the press and I've spoken to my friends that are White House correspondents still. And like they are they are frustrated and they have been for a while and they sense this. But it like makes the Robert Herr report like it makes Robert Herr not like a total like jerk out to get by.

Biden. Like if that's the guy he got. It explains why the White House has refused to release the audio to Republicans.

Exactly. And like, it really like it totally plays into every conspiracy theory that like, basically Biden has brain worms or this or that. And you know what Trump's team like they have been playing into this for so long. Like when I called Jason before my piece came out, I was like, Jason Miller. Yeah, see, we're so we're such pals. I don't even realize Jason Miller. I should know. He's a Trump spokesperson. I first covered him when he was a very young Rudy Giuliani presidential staffer in 2008 when Giuliani ran for president. So

Oh, those were the days. Yes. Miller has a few. He's gone through a few of these cycles. What's his headline? Yeah, he does. Just like his statement was like, Trump doesn't need to prepare. He's been doing interviews every single day, five days a week, all the time. And it's like...

It's kind of true. I mean, like he does it all the time with antagonistic people. Like he's constantly used to getting people under his, he's used to being around people who are going to get under his skin. And so it's like, if you're not, you don't have that muscle warmed up, but I don't even know that that muscle could have been warmed up based on the performance I saw last night. Like, I don't think that was a muscle thing.

So let's talk about what happens next, because everything right now is text messages and WhatsApp threads and behind the scenes. People are worried. And then outward, you know, I just saw Kayla Tausche over at CNN reports. Advisors say publicly Biden remains committed not only to not dropping out, but he's committed to a second debate in September. So talk to me about what you're hearing behind the scenes and when the behind the scenes conversation, who's willing to go public with this?

Yeah, that's a really good question. By the way, I think September is way too long to wait for Biden. I mean, let's see what the poll numbers look like. Biden, as far as when I was talking to people, if they're going to make the argument that this was a one-off, and I don't know if you caught Kamala Harris's interviews on CNN and MSNBC last night, where she's like, I don't want to talk about the last 90 minutes. Let's talk about the last three and a half years. And remember Jon Stewart came back, when he came back in the fall,

or whenever he relaunched his weekly is on daily show in his first appearance, he was talking about how Biden people, he did like a montage of Biden advisors saying behind the scenes, he's the sharpest guy behind the scenes. He's that. Oh, it's always background quotes. The New York times. Can somebody take that behind the scenes Biden and tell in front of the camera, Biden about that Biden.

No, he was like, roll, show us the tapes. Show us the tapes of Biden. That's what he said. You know, and so like he needs to go and do an hour and a half in public every day between now and the convention.

to convince folks and show that he's a different Biden than the Biden that was in Atlanta last night. So, you know, I'm generally curious, like, you know, do you get the sense that there's any, quote, senior Democrat who's very concerned that is willing to go on camera, on TV and say it is time to hand the keys to the next person?

Okay, that's a really good question. First of all, I think I've spoken to, like, very senior donors who are worried that money is going to dry up because of this. And, like, not just at the high level, but at the grassroots level. There was a feeling last night that, like, the election is over. It's going to be so hard to recover from something like that. Like, it is going to be hard. I don't even know if you did an hour and a half a day of Biden, like, in his peak performance, you would be able to, first of all, get that number of eyeballs and convince people that he's there. Yeah. Because, like...

That's a pretty indelible moment. Yes, it comes down to Joe Biden himself and deciding what he wants to do. But I spoke to someone who has worked with him very closely for many years. And what they told me was that it will take...

you know, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, they are going to have to do what Barry Goldwater and John Rose did in 1974 with Richard Nixon. They have to go down to the White House and say, Mr. President, I'm sorry, but it's over. And like, otherwise it just won't happen. And yeah, it's got to also be Jill, Jill Biden and Valerie, his sister. Literally President Biden's sister and his wife. Yes.

need to be convinced that this is over and then convinced him that this is over for him well i mean jill brought him out on stage afterwards for that rally and he was like smiling almost looking like unaware of what had happened and he went into another rambling story and i'm like is he really doing this like is he really going on and this one was about a movie he watched with his brothers but it just again did not get to the point it rambled

And I guess that was what they were planning to do. There was a crowd waiting for them. - And clearly the White House advisors felt like, oh my God, we gotta put him out there. And then they sent them to a Waffle House after the debate as well. They kept sending him to these various public appearances to try to somehow disprove what people saw at the debate for 90 minutes.

I just, I don't ever think you're going to get that eyeball, those eyeballs. And I think it reconfirms the fears that people have had all along because we just haven't seen him that much. Like, it's like they just brought him out for the first time. It's not like there's a constant flood of Biden appearances. And even if there was, the news isn't going to cover it the way they usually do. There isn't the appetite for it.

You know the networks are kind of overcovering political news in general. Like, this hasn't been a great year for ratings for them. You think they're going to want to, like, follow Biden around like it's a reality show just to show that he's, like, spry and with it? Because the truth is they're going to see more moments. I mean, even after the Her report, like, that was not a reassuring moment for that team.

when he came out there and confused the names of the president of Egypt and Mexico. Like, it's not a surefire way to win people over. I think the damage is done. And like, that is exactly what I was getting all night from Democrats. They're just like,

Literally, the only chance we have right now is to swap him out. Our only hope is for him to bow out. And before the debate, the feeling was if Biden could just show up, look vital, kind of act like the State of the Union, let Trump self-immolate, right? Look crazy, be wild. Expectations were very low. Be robust and coherent for 90 minutes and then sort of hope that Trump says crazy things.

In the end, like Trump actually, even if he was saying things that were not true, that were lies, he looked measured. He looked calm. At one point he said to Trump, I don't even know what, if you think, if you know what you're saying. And it was like, wow. Sorry, Trump says that to Biden. After a moment when Biden was pausing for five seconds and then comes back. And it was just like,

And he just, he looked tired. It was just not good. No, it was, all I heard from Democrats last night was just like abject disappointment. Like my text message feed from Democrats last night. These are people who will never vote for Donald Trump.

were just embarrassed. They were sad. And it really leads to trying to figure out the scenarios here. So number one, Biden stays in and attempts to convince his party that he's the nominee. Scenario two,

He is convinced the intervention you discussed, the Nixon-like intervention from the summer of 74 happens in the Biden scenario. He drops out, releases his delegates, and we have the first open convention in 50 or so years. And then there's scenario three, which is he has 95% of the delegates at the DNC. Somehow 2,000 of his delegates, his hand-selected delegates, campaign delegates, have to flip on him.

including Democrats going public. This whole private conversation needs to go public for them to challenge him at the convention. And by the way, anyone who challenges him risks their future in the party. You know, you come to the king, you come for the king, you know, you better not miss, right? But,

But this king is like clearly not wearing any clothes or the emperor has no clothes. It's kind of obvious at this point. And for so long, they've been hiding it. I will say I spoke to a very senior Democrat on the Hill last night who was telling me that every single Democrat in the House that they're on a text chain with, and this is this very senior person, like over 30 of them, believes that Biden cannot run again. And if you have that many people

And they're all talking about it. And they're Democrats. And they're House Democrats who want to take the House back. And they need a stronger person at the top of the ticket. Like, it's not just about Biden and these Democratic operatives who are wetting themselves or whatever. Like, it's also down ballot. There's a lot of people that are like, they're going to start getting antsy.

And so I guess the question is, this is behind the scenes, behind the scenes, a text chain, a text chain. And it just, it leads to the question, which is like, who popped that bubble, right? Like who finally comes public and they have like a, you know, a big sit down, you know, if they have to go to the media, I imagine they'll probably try to do it behind the scenes, but who's willing to have that conversation with him? And how long do they give him before they have that conversation, given that, you know, time is tight. Democrats decided not to run any serious candidates against this guy.

They did not give him a primary challenge. They've now put themselves in a position, right? I mean, I imagine they got to be saying like, you know, Dean Phillips was the only person willing to challenge Joe Biden this cycle. He doesn't look so crazy anymore, right?

No. And then you had a bunch of young Democrats. Not that he ever really did, to be honest, but it was just no one would follow him out the door. And they obviously, they alienated him for doing it. They alienated him. They changed the rules for the primaries. They made it totally impossible for Dean Phillips, a congressman from Minnesota, who

who was really the only serious, I'll use serious in quotes, challenge to Joe Biden. But like the rest of these folks, right, the next generation of Dems, the Buttigieg's, the Kredge and Whitmer's, the Gavin Newsom's are all young enough where they're just like, let him have his last cycle. I'll still be half his age in four years.

Well, yeah, they didn't want to lose their chance on the bench, but that's kind of silly because it's not, you don't always know that you're going to have the bench the next cycle. And I get it. They didn't want like the Obamas. They didn't want the Clintons, everyone coming out against them. They lose their fundraising lines, but I think that's going to change. I was actually just talking to a major Democratic legislator.

Bundler who was like, I'm going to go meet with Gavin Newsom. I wasn't planning to do it, but now I'm going to. I think once they, if they have the money behind them and they know they have the support, I think that really matters is that you have fundraising behind you. I think like donors will also probably be more willing to have those hard conversations with Biden. What do they have to lose?

So you bring up a key thing here. I mean, there's a couple of constituencies we talk about. There's voters, but you keep talking about the donors and the donors are key here because we're coming off of a month where Donald Trump blew it out, right? The muddy bench that Biden had

is gone. And that's before this debate. And so these are the people who will need to fund what is a billion dollar plus campaign over the course of the next four and a half months. And if they don't write the checks, it's sort of like covering business news. Ultimately, it comes down to the bottom line here. And the CEO has to resign if the stock price goes low. And the stock on Biden and the party seems to be dropping here. Oh, yeah. A thousand percent. When people feel like there's nothing left,

they'll take risky decisions, right? Because what's the loss? There is no loss in their minds, especially if the polls really sink. Maybe people are still waiting for those polls. Maybe they're not. So that's what we're waiting for. We sit here 12 hours out. You really need three days in the field. I would say you probably need a week, like, you know, sort of middle to end of next week when, you know, but again, we're going to July 4th holiday. But like if the New York Times poll comes out and everything's been within the margin of error and there's a major move to Trump in the States,

How many weeks of those? They'll say, oh, it's just one poll, et cetera. But I think you're right, which is they're going to need to see data that proves that America saw the same debate that political insiders saw last night.

I don't see how they couldn't. Like, I watched it without Twitter. I really made a point of just, like, shutting off the phone. I feel like I've got a pretty good idea. I sat there with a friend watching it, too, who's literally, like, does not tune in for this stuff at all. And her face while I watched her... She was, like... I watched her reaction to it, too. Yeah. And it's, like...

It's not just us. My wife, who's like, I wouldn't watch this if it wasn't for you, was grimacing. She's like, I would have turned this off after 15 minutes. This was so painful for me to watch. No, it was. And we set the bar low in the media because we actually reported what Joe Biden's team was offering and what Trump's team was saying. Like, Trump's team set the bar low for Biden. They

They were like, he can't speak. He can't do anything. And we're like this. Everyone thought and part of the reason probably I thought I could go on vacation to. Well, actually, I planned it before the debate. They just sprung it on me in June. But the point is that. Earliest debate in history, you know. Yeah, exactly. In fairness. But the truth is that we thought that State of the Union Joe would show up, right? Correct.

Sadie and Joe, sort of, you know, it's interesting if you look at why Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee today. He's been saved, I think, at least twice. And let me know if there was another point in the cycle. One.

the better than expected finish in the midterm elections. People are saying, all right, Joe has to hang it up. If he loses the House, Senate, the red wave, so-called red wave happens, he's done. And he performed better. And Biden- It was a red trickle. It was a red trickle. A couple seats in New York basically allowed the Republicans to win the House. Dems held Senate. And out of that, Biden takes the lesson

Oh, they love me and they want more of me. Or, or Rover suede was just overturned, but like, whatever, no big deal. That Thanksgiving of 2022 was supposed to be the family discussion. And that's where the family told them. And when we say family, when Jill said, yeah, go for it, Joe, you can do this. And then, you know, there starts to be the hand-wringing again, et cetera. And we get to say the union earlier this spring, uh,

And Biden, for an hour plus, gives a speech before the country. And people, you know, breathe, Democrats breathe a sigh of relief. Yes. And so he sort of had two, like, you know, near, you know, party starts to freak out a little bit. But this, I mean, this is a level of freak out. And this is a performance that he can't fail. He couldn't fail.

It's like, okay, I just want to say one thing and I want to go back. And I don't know if there is any connectivity towards it, but Biden was never really a strong candidate to begin with. I mean, going back to 2020- In 2020, he wasn't strong, right? New Hampshire, he lost. Iowa, he lost. The party, Puba's leader, Clyburn, helped him win South Carolina, the primary there. And basically everyone bowed out. The party was like, he's our nominee. He's the guy who can beat Trump. And that was it. Remember-

Remember, because they were worried about Bernie Sanders. Bernie was making his second run. And so I remember in like a matter of hours or days, you see like Klobuchar, Buttigieg, all of them get out, endorse Joe. And he was so weak that, you know, even like Mike Bloomberg decided to spend a billion dollars in 100 days to run for president in that cycle against him. And then he benefits from the fact that there wasn't really a campaign in 2020.

Right, exactly. So he doesn't have to go out and campaign much. Trump is self-immolating, which is what they essentially wanted to happen last night because the country is being run so poorly during COVID. His performance debates are crazy. They reflect the mood of the country, the way he's handling it, like,

everything is happening. He gets COVID like after the debate, it's, you know, everything is working out to his advantage. Gives it to Biden in the debate. Yeah, exactly. So everything is working out the way they want it to. They really don't have to do much. It truly is a referendum on Trump, but this is a weird election where the other, you know, candidate basically like the bar was like, I wrote about this as well, that for both men, the bar was solo. They just have to show up and let the other one sort of,

act incorrectly. Trump had to show up and act normal, and he wins, right? Biden has to show up and seem cogent, and he wins. Trump wasn't that normal, but he was just, compared to Biden's ability to communicate, was just not- Yeah, Frank Luntz, the longtime pollster, did a focus group last night. And in his focus group, including it had a bunch of Biden 2020 voters and some undecideds, he asked, did Trump win? No one raises their hand. Did Biden lose? Everyone raises their hand.

So you went by DeVault? Yeah. There we go. I mean, the double haters are obviously still out there and going to exist, but like someone else pointed this out to me as well. This was before the debate, like,

We usually depressed voting, voting hurts Democrats, right? Like it's just not good for Biden if people don't want to go out and vote. He's already struggling with his coalition right now. Young people, Gen Z, you've got them, you've got African-Americans, he's soft with Hispanics, and he's got to motivate these people to want to go out and vote for him.

That debate performance last night was not a motivator. And work for him and volunteer for him and knock on doors and drive elderly people to the polls. I mean, you're talking about, I mean, you look at the last couple of elections, you know, Trump wins by less than 100,000 votes in four states in 16. Biden effectively wins by about that in four different states in 2020. I mean, even with 100 million, you know, 150 million Americans voting. I mean, every vote matters and you got, and you need that motivated base.

Exactly. And so even if people watch that last night and they're like, I hate both these men throwing my remote at the TV, not going out and voting, that probably helps Trump ultimately. It's not scientifically proven, but it's probably true because Trump's coalition is much stronger than Biden's.

Right. The people who love Trump, love Trump. They are passionate about him. The people who are behind Biden, there are some people who love him, but some people are just like, I think that Trump is a threat to democracy. I think that Trump is a catastrophe. So I'm going to vote for whoever is not Trump. Let's talk about Trump here for a second, because we've spent the majority here talking about Biden. I found it interesting last night, you know, Trump is a pretty savvy guy.

in these settings. And you could see his face at times watching what was unfolding. And typically when someone's lighting themselves on fire, you don't go over and throw more matches. You just let them do their thing. So you're not blamed for it, a la 2020. And that's where he benefited from the muted mic.

And so I'm just curious what the Trump people are saying in the first 12 hours out of this. And, you know, because they were also trying to set expectations higher, being like Biden's going to be on drugs. You know, he's going to he's going to be CNN's going to help him. Yeah, that was reverse correcting. They're setting it so low. I mean, the people that I've spoken to.

Trump was Trump, but he stayed on the rails. Like they got the microphone helped. It kept him on guardrails. It made him not seem very aggressive. He wasn't that aggressive. He didn't even when Biden called him a contrarian,

convicted felon. He shook his head and acknowledged it, which I was surprised. He didn't really react. So they must've been practicing with him non-reactivity. No, the thing that upset him the most was the golf conversation. That's when like both sides were like, I can't believe you think you're a six handicap. Like he was, he was more pissed at that than like the other things. He was very Zen. He was a Zen. I mean, if you could say that a Zen version of Trump.

They probably didn't prep him for being mocked for his golf game. But in the end, he won that because basically Biden set him up and he was able to say, let's not act like children. I mean, who looks like adults? Trump said that to Biden.

Exactly. I was like, wait, is this some alternate universe? Now I'm just seeing things. Am I so jet lagged and I'm just seeing things? Yes. It was kind of amazing. I have heard from some Republicans in a bit of paranoia, ecstasy, I guess you could say. I just want to read to you a text message from one of them who made a very...

Funny point is sort of true. And I'm sort of hearing it like this may have actually ultimately been bad for Trump because Biden may have been so bad that they may replace him with someone who could actually beat Trump.

5D trust. This speaks to some of the conspiracy theories out here, Tara. You know, like, you know, I've had a lot of... I don't think that's a conspiracy theory. Like, my whole thing, and my theory of this whole election, I've said this many times on the show, the only person who could lose to Trump is Biden. The only person who could lose to Biden is Trump. So if you throw in something, a new candidate, I mean, I don't think that Trump could beat another...

Democrat, right? We'd have to be profoundly weak. Well, it really depends. I mean, you could argue that like, you know, like everyone mentions Gavin Newsom, but Gavin Newsom is a very flawed guy who might be seen as too liberal. So Democrats, I mean, first of all, we're talking about a very, you know, we brought up earlier, like

Either Biden needs an intervention, Democrats have to be willing to challenge him on this, or Biden needs to realize that he's got to hand it over. Or there's like an unprecedented situation in Chicago where a couple thousand delegates say, we are pledged to Biden.

But we don't have to vote for him. And they need an alternative. So Democrats have to be very strategic with who they choose. Because, you know, not to say that, you know, Trump is certainly beatable. He was beaten in 2020. But you got to make sure that, you know, whoever is in there has to be very savvy, has to be able to win over independents, has to, you know, get progressives excited.

it's a tall order for Democrats at this juncture. And I know we sit here in late June, you know, just off the debate, but there's a scenario. I mean, I remember I texted you last night being like, what are the odds? What's the over-under on Biden still being the nominee? In November, that Biden is still the nominee and people are voting, you know, and he is the Democratic alternative to Trump. I mean, listen, I want to say 50%, but...

I just can't imagine the party, the noise is going to get so loud. Like it, this it's going to get louder and louder. Donors are going to be freaking out and they're not afraid to talk. Pundits are going to get louder. I mean, you have Kate Bedingfield who walked, worked for him as his communications director, being pretty candid about her assessment of the debate. I think the party pooh-baws are going to see the polling. If he is like substantially down from Trump, if he's like 10 points in the polling down from Trump, like you have a problem, you have a real problem.

And I think that in that you get a party revolt and it's top, it's top down, down up. Like I said, Democrats in, in the house Senate freaking out, that's noise. Those are elected officials. That is not the kind of, you know, and in the leadership of the party, they, they want to win back. You think Senate, you think Chuck Schumer doesn't want to stay, you know, majority leader. You don't think like Hakeem Jeffrey wants to be the first black speaker of the house. Like they

They're ambitious. Everybody who is, you know, a ranking chairman in the Democratic Party right now wants to be the chair of the committee. They're ambitious people. They don't care for Joe Biden, who's going to be a lame duck president, basically, in his second term. What are they like not going to get invited to Christmas parties?

Part of the intervention with the White House is like, listen, we're going to throw you under the bus. When voters ask us about you in the fall, we'll be like, yeah. It's going to make for a very, very awkward situation for Democrats if Biden is committed to staying in this. And it gets to the bottom line, which is he has laid out this election in very stark terms.

As far as Biden is concerned, a return of Donald Trump is the end of American democracy. And if that's what you genuinely believe, and that's what you're generally telling people, and you're down 10 points in the polls or five points in the polls, et cetera, the fact that this is even competitive for some Democrats is shocking. They're running against a man they see has been indicted four times, has been criminally convicted, is facing multiple trials, has been impeached twice.

You know, we could go on and on and on there. And it's been competitive. He has a slight advantage. And out of this, he might have a huge advantage. So if you're Joe Biden, you're laying out these stakes. And this is, you're down to this guy? And you're somebody who, you know, says you should put the country over yourself and your own ego? Yeah, no. You know, some of them might say, you know, what would you tell someone, Joe, that was in this predicament? He says, I alone can beat Donald Trump because I did it once before.

Barely, though, in 2020. Barely in a bizarro election where you didn't really have to campaign. So barely. And you have the pressure of the incumbency. You have a record now that you have to run on. And yes, he's passed...

sweeping large pieces of legislation that will probably benefit people. They may not feel the benefits for before the election, which has always been the gripe of Democrats who want to get more, you know, they want to get more kudos for his work. And he already had the challenge when he got on that stage.

if he was going to actually like go above and beyond to kind of try to convince people that what they're feeling is not because of him and it will change. And I mean, in terms of like inflation, crime, migration. So that was a huge challenge to begin with, because when you're the president, like it is ultimately a referendum on you, but he wanted it to be a referendum on Trump in the same way that Trump doesn't want this election to be a referendum on him. He'd

rather it be a referendum on Biden. We're stepping off this stage right now and it's a referendum on Joe Biden. Now what? Right. And so again, he thinks he is the only one who could beat Trump. And most people think he's the only one who could probably lose to Trump. Like you said, that's not for sure.

I bet you there's going to be a lot of polling going on right now of alternates. What would happen? You know, you saw Gavin Newsom out there. You saw Raphael Warnock, some of the stars after they were all being very, very good surrogates to buy in last night. They were not throwing him under the bus. Yeah. But that's also what you need to do at this juncture. And oh, yeah. Never show your cards. It's too soon.

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Like I said, you got to make sure the money is behind you because this is about money.

running for president, especially at this stage, jumping in so late. So when we talk about money, who are we talking about, like in the democratic party who are the, like, if Biden loses them, like that's the beginning of, of the avalanche, that's the beginning of the waterfall. Who are you looking at? I mean, like, I know there's Haim Saban and LA, like, are there certain individuals or donors who are the, you know, the wise men and women of the party who, if he loses them, he knows he's in trouble.

I think Jeffrey Katzenberg. He's been like, he's basically been like his speech writer. Katzenberg and Spielberg, incidentally, are both working on his convention. Yeah, exactly. I mean, I know some other people. I don't want to name them because I speak to them. And I don't know that they mean anything to our listeners either, but these are bundlers. These are people who raise millions and millions of dollars.

that have been doing it for the democratic party for many years. And like, these are people who have a say, they know they have Nancy Pelosi on speed dial. I know she's no longer the speaker of the house, but she still has, she still has a lot of power. You know, they have Hawkins Jeffries on speed dial. They can probably get, you know, his top eight Anita done on the phone in a second, because she,

Yes, small dollars are great, but small dollars might dry up after this. And one of those top donors warned me that it's not just going to be the big donors that are going to say, I don't want to put another – I'm not throwing more money into a sinking ship. Right, right. When you're running for president, you need those big checks, but you also need people who watched it giving you $10, giving you $20, giving you $5. Exactly, exactly. So I think that's going to be a really –

I think the money is going to be a big part of it. And I wrote about this actually, like this time last year about all, I mean, we've always written about the, there's always stories about the bench, right? The people behind Biden waiting in the wings. And I had, I'd written about some people that I thought if this were to happen in the summer, if for some reason Joe Biden was going to win,

would step down for some reason or another, it would be a broker convention. Like these people are ready to step in. And I had spoken to their advisors about it and they all said, we are ready in terms of money. Cause we know that that's what it takes a campaign to turn it on overnight. That's a, that's a big lift. Even if you have the power of the DNC behind you, there's no saying, I mean like Biden should do the right thing and give all the money to that candidate. Right. The DNC technically should go that way, you know, and some of those people who could do it,

J.B. Pritzker. He's a billionaire. He owns the Hyatt Air. Yeah. Hyatt Air. I mean, he could sell fund. And the

convention is in Chicago in August. So that sort of lines him up, you know, Gavin Newsom, also someone who's been raising money. He has been hustling kind of like waiting in the wings. He also has a lot of money that he's been raising. I'm not so sure about Gretchen Whitmer and what her, her cash pile looks like, but she certainly had like a lot of profile elevating moments. I do think like just putting someone texted me as well saying like, if you just,

If you introduce the country to a new person at the convention, it could electrify the party in the base if it's like the right person. Right. And, you know, a name that we haven't really mentioned, Vice President Kamala Harris.

What do the bundlers tell you? What do the insiders tell you? Obviously, there's the optics. She's the first female black vice president. The optics of passing her over would be pretty horrible within that party. How does that work? How does the – like we're going to a broker convention, and by the way, the vice president is constitutionally the person who takes over with the president, but not in this party. I mean, listen –

You are offending the core of the Democratic Party. I mean, African-American women, they always come out. They're the most loyal voters, right? They're like 90-something percent, the most loyal Democratic voters there are. Yeah. It's like you would just be like... But how do they actually feel about Kamala Harris? It's unclear. I mean, I don't really follow the polling on that, but...

I just don't know. It is a very sticky situation to be in where you don't let the vice president step up into that role, right? Like that would be her natural position. I think the feeling is like her approval rating hovers around his. So it's like you're not, it's not like you're swapping him out for someone who has such a higher, so much higher approval rating.

She's like just considered not impressive to a lot of people, fairly or unfairly, like maybe it's sexism, maybe it's racism. I'm not entirely sure. I mean, she's had a lot of chances to shine and she's missed a lot of opportunities. So people go back to that interview she had with Lester Hull when she did not want to go anywhere near sexism.

the migrant crisis, even though that was her, that was under her purview. I mean, most vice presidents get that shitty kind of, you know, agenda. Presidents always give the vice presidents like the worst unfixable things in their administration. That's why there was a show literally called Veep. I mean, it's sort of the worst. So, I mean, she set up for a lot of moments. I don't, she doesn't do that well in the media. They, everyone feels she's not relaxed. I know it sounds so silly. It's like, Oh, what does that matter? It's, it's about policy. And it's like, Oh,

If there's anything you've seen from last night, it's like appearing presidential and decisive matters so much. It's why actors probably like Ronald Reagan did so well. And even why Trump somehow convinced the entire country that he was a successful businessman. Go back to Kennedy in the first Elvise debate, right? The theory goes, if you listen to the Nixon-Kennedy debate on the radio, you thought Nixon won. If you watch it on TV, you thought Kennedy won. And that sort of began the last 60 years of American politics.

Right. Television. And even like Trump, the apprentice, like did that not just sear an idea into like the entire country that he was this really successful businessman when he was literally coming off his sixth bankruptcy when he started the show? It's just like and he made more money from the show than he made from anything else.

And like he has sold the idea that he is, you know, super successful businessman. So as we wrap this, I'm seeing a tweet just now from Manu Raju of CNN. Democratic leaders not planning a direct intervention to press Joe Biden to drop out of the race for multiple Democratic sources on the Hill. Dems want to let the dust settle with the public and assess the strength of the campaign before they make any moves.

AKA let's look at the polls and actually like talk to donors and do some real hard work on this. I wonder if they're letting him watch morning Joe.

Well, that was so interesting, right? Morning Joe, his favorite TV show. Mika called it a five alarm fire. Joe said, this is like we're in the middle of a war. We've lost a battle and it might be time to replace the general. These are his people. The New York Times op-ed page today, Tara, this morning, I mean, everyone's taking a screenshot.

of all the columnists, the headlines. Thomas Friedman, President Biden is my friend. He must buy out of the race. Frank Bruni, Biden cannot go on like this. Patrick Healy, I'm hearing high anxiety from Democrats over Biden's debate performance. Nick Kristof, President Biden, it's time to drop out. This is the New York Times op-ed page.

All the white dudes. All the white dudes. I think Thomas Friedman, he's not far away from you right now. He said he's in his hotel room in Portugal and he watched the debate and wept.

So wait, is it not called bedwetting anymore? Can we retire that word? If we're all, if everyone's collectively pissing in their beds, is it, is it no longer bedwetting or is that just going to the bathroom now? And this is something, you know, Democrats have always said for years, they freak out much, much easier than Republicans. I mean, Tara, this goes back. I remember covering the Obama McCain campaign, the Obama people after,

people forget this, Sarah Palin moved the polls to a McCain advantage after the convention in 08, and the Obama people were having a freak out. And by the way, Obama goes on to blow out McCain, but they were bedwetting in early September of 2008. This is, this is, you know, I don't even know. I don't know how we, where we take the metaphor on this one, but- I've always said that the, I didn't like that term. I never did. I always got annoyed with it because I was like, it's not bedwetting. Like the guy, the race has been tied

for over a year now. And I remember I had on Jim Messina, who was Obama's campaign advisor. And he's like, it's going to be fine. I've looked at the six states and everything's great. And I said to him, dude, I don't think there was ever a point in 2020 when Trump wasn't trailing Biden. And Trump historically is underpolled.

It's hard to reach his voters. He always does better than you think. And Biden around this time was ahead of Trump by seven to 10 points. In fact, after the debate, he was ahead of Trump by 10 points. And still in the end, he only won by like 40,000 votes in the swing states. So why are we supposed to believe that this time when Trump is actually beating Biden, that he's not actually doing better than the margin of error? Listen, I think there's a huge divide between

People in Washington, you know, it actually led to this question I was getting from a few people, which is like, there's already distrust for the media. And now people are like, you people in the White House briefing room, you people who've been covering Joe Biden, I trust you even less now, because we have now he has been revealed to us in that debate for what he actually is. And you guys in the media have been covering for him.

Okay, in fairness, I have been writing about people saying he needs to step down for years. We all have. We'll do the story. Everyone does the story in...

print or whatever. And I get it, but like, there isn't a lot of access to him. I don't know any reporters that spend that much time with him. They gave one reporter from time who I really didn't know of his work. They gave him some access. Yeah. Osnoff, John Osnoff from the New Yorker got some access for a few days, but like they don't give access to reporters. It's really hard to see him up front. And like, what we're supposed to say, it's like a grand conspiracy theory to cover for him. Like,

you know you and the media hate trump so much that you you guys are helping helping biden get over the finish line i did find it was like i do find it to be a little annoying when i read these background quotes but like he was so angry because they were obviously the background quotes are fed by the administration to make him seem in command and in control and caring about issues like migration it's like not another background quote in every single paper but like you know

okay, like, what is it? What is he doing? Like, why not just bring in the cameras like Trump used to do? He used to bring cameras into every meeting. Let's see it.

And I was funny, like I was on Bill Maher and Bill Maher was saying like he did great at the State of the Union. Now never show him again. And I was like, no, we need more access to him. He's like, no, you don't need more access. This is enough for you. This is as good as it's going to get. The so-called basement campaign from 2020, like bring it back, put them in the bubble wrap strategy, right? Put Biden in bubble wrap and get him across November 5th.

Is there anything else you want to go or do you want to like, I just want, I would love to ask you a question about, um, as a, like a TV producer, what did you think of the actual event? Like, how do you think the, the, the moderators did? Like, do you think that the format that the Biden campaign requested actually aided and assisted Trump in some way?

So a couple of things. One, I thought Jake and Dan did a great job. They did not make themselves the story. I thought that they also brought up topics that don't get addressed. You know, one of the biggest topics there for our audience at Mo News is child care costs. They've gone up astronomically. And the fact that they actually made that a part of the debate last night, among other issues, that was great. The unfortunate thing is they devoted five minutes of child care. Twenty two seconds of it was spent discussing child care.

very briefly, somewhat coherently by Biden. And then the rest was just like them arguing about Trump being the worst president, according to some historians. Yeah. Who cares, by the way? Oh, who cares? Historians,

Like a bunch of liberal historians said that it made a list of like Biden. He's like 159 or 158. It's like, what are you talking about? You, you, you have a topic like childcare that like you want to do more for moms on in terms of giving benefits, et cetera, parental leave. And that, that was rejected by Republicans. Like,

You have a very cogent argument to make on an issue that potentially could benefit you with suburban women, your core constituency. And you completely punted on it. Like you completely like... You know he was fed like that, Doc. I mean, they all are prepared with stats, but someone said to me, like, whatever they do, do not let him have stats. He is so bad with stats. He bumbles stats. Do not let them have stats.

And that's what he did. He was like, packed full of stats. And that's just a stupid stat. Nobody cares what historians say. Nobody cares what historians say. Nobody cares what Nobel Prize economists say that blah, blah, blah. So back to the production of it. It just kind of makes him seem out of touch and reminds people, oh, he's been in a, you know, a politician forever. Sorry. Back to the production. Yeah, back to the production.

And I'm sorry that we didn't talk a lot about substance on the show, but there wasn't a lot of substance on the debate. I responded to somebody who said, hey, I wanted to talk more about issues. And I go, I got to be honest with you. When someone lights themselves on fire on stage and the entire party is debating whether that person should still be running for president, what they said on X issue or Y issue probably matters less out of this debate.

But significantly, like, do you know what this debate is supposed to be about? Laying out the next four years, what is your vision for the country? What is your vision for the world? Most powerful human being elected on earth. And we didn't get a very good sense of that, which is one of the unfortunate things. Now, that wasn't because the moderators were CNN. I thought they did a good job of that. I thought...

Honestly, if you have two different candidates there, this format actually totally works. It actually allows for you to really understand positions without the theater of it, without the fighting, without all of that. So I think that the format chosen by Biden would have benefited him in 2016. Where he is today...

That actually hurt him. There were moments, Tara, I don't know how many times you noticed, where he didn't even take up all his time. There were a couple of seconds where, a couple of times where Dan was like, you know, you have 86 seconds left, Mr. President. Would you care to elaborate more on your position on that? You have 47 seconds left. Do you want to take up your time? Nobody in the history of presidential debates has ever, but,

By the way, what can you get in? Does anyone make any good points in two minutes? You need more than two minutes often to make a really good point. And there were times where Biden went for 30 seconds on social security, on hugely significant issues, and he didn't go there. So-

I thought it was a solid production. This was also unprecedented, right? Taking this away from the Commission on Presidential Debates, doing something this early. I thought they handled it well. I was sort of annoyed as a journalist by their decision not to allow an independent reporter from the White House press pool into the studio for extra color, et cetera. There was an argument made to have another reporter in the studio so they could see what's happening to him.

during the commercial break or, you know, what someone's saying with the mute button on, et cetera. But for the most part, you know, I thought it was a solid production. I appreciate the fact that CNN also made the feed available to all the other networks to carry. They could have said, this is an exclusive CNN production. You have to watch it on CNN or else. So for the most part, you know, it was probably good for them for awareness, the ratings.

Potentially. I mean, you know, I don't know how many people watched last night on a different network and said, oh, you know, I got to watch that Jake Tapper. I got to watch that Dana Bash. But they didn't make themselves the story. I think there were lessons learned from the 2012 debate. People might not recall Andy Crowley saying,

CNN reporter, anchored that debate, tried to fact check Mitt Romney in real time in 2012. It looked like she was assisting Obama. It looks like she was assisting Obama. And actually, it turns out she was not completely accurate in that fact check. So I think CNN feels burned. Reporters feel burned by fact checking in real time. But you should leave it to the other candidates to fact check. They should know their shit. Correct. When Donald Trump last night was saying that Democrats support killing babies after they're born, aborting babies after they're born,

And Biden didn't respond to that in a real way. Like, it's not Jake and Dana's job to fact check Trump. It is Joe Biden's job to fact check Trump. And that was, again, there were gimmies, there were layups for Joe Biden that must have had Democrats, you know, with their head in their hands. Agreed. I mean, I understand the point of fact checking, but

you're the president of the United States and a former president of the United States. You got to be ready to fact check and correct people in a debate. And overall though, in terms of just like,

Do you think this is a way forward? Do you think the presidential commission is dead? Long live? They have to figure out to revive themselves. I mean, I just think this is such a weird election era. Like, you know, there was like, we're seeing, this is the first time since Grover Cleveland, Benjamin Harrison, we're seeing a rematch of two presidents, right? Right. Since the 1870s. Like there wasn't, you know, a real primary on the, on the R side. There was no real primary on the D side.

And so I don't know, do we go back to normal in 2028? Does the commission come back? They certainly will have to figure out a way to reform themselves. You know, they've been running the debates, even the sets look like they're from the 80s because they are from the 1980s. You know, people vote early now, starting in early September. So why are you still scheduling debates after the 80s?

after tens of millions of Americans have voted. So there needs to be a complete rethink of how these debates happen. What is the purpose of the debates? But yeah, I mean, this kind of competition among the networks, you know, was how this cycle went. And maybe that's the way forward. But I do like CNN setting the precedent, again, that even if you get the debate, that you win the debate, that you produce the debate, that you ensure that it's available as public service on every channel.

Well, I think we should probably cap it off on that, if that works for you. This was really fun. I hope we do it again. Yes. We need more Mo News collab with Somebody's Gotta Win. I feel like our listeners are...

probably in the same space of just wanting some straight news and, uh, Straight news, straight analysis. Uh, you know what people are telling us with perspective from, you know, covering this stuff. And so Tara, I appreciate you, um, uh, starting your vacation by working.

I feel like I'm going to be back. I feel like this is going to be dragging me back in. Can you resist? I mean, this is like, as a political reporter, I mean, there are very few things, like everything is sort of like, oh, I've seen that. I've seen that. We've never seen this. No. And it was like, there's never a good time to take off either, right? Because we come back and it's like the Republican National Convention. Sentencing, July 11th. Republican Convention, July 15th. Democratic Convention, August 19th. Second debate, if it happens, September.

September 10th. So like the next 10 weeks. Wait, what do you think the odds are that the second debate happens? Well, who's standing at one of the lecterns? We know what Trump is standing at one. You know, again, this morning, senior advisors of the White House are saying that he is excited about a second debate. Okay.

Okay. Why is he excited? Why would he be excited? And I think one thing that we'll have to watch is like all of us are having this conversation. What does America think? How does it change the numbers? What did the polls look like in a week, in two weeks? And, you know, Is there a grassroots revolt too? When you say grassroots, who do you mean? Just like money dries up grassroots level. Like there's, there's,

Field organizers quit. I mean, there's got to be. It's not just money and AIDS and the Biden brain trust. These are people that they need to go out and vote. I guess the polls will tell us that. The polls will tell us that. But, I mean, you bring up a good point, which is campaigns only function and win based on volunteers.

And people excited, people putting signs in their yard, telling their friends and family they should vote for somebody. And then you have the donors, right, who provide the money to make the ads. And those are two key constituencies here. Those are two huge groups of people. And the electeds in between that help the party. And then elected officials who, by the way, take the temperature, put their finger to the wind, seeing what the public wants. And they don't want to lose their position because the top of the ticket is weak.

That I think is interesting too. The more lawmakers start to come forward and start saying things. I don't think it's going to come from the top. I think it's going to be a bottom-up thing. And that will then dictate how many, if Biden's in the top down. And are they treated like Dean Philip Heredix or are they like actually taken, treated with some respect? Like I said, these are like very senior Democrats that I was hearing from electeds just telling me this is out of control.

Right. So I want them, like, when we have them before the cameras in a few weeks, like, what did you actually think of that? And now they're all pivoting. They're all pivoting, saying, well, Trump's a liar. Trump's a liar. And that's the debate that I saw. But they're not addressing the, you know, it is, I don't even know what 500 pound, you know, the elephant, the gorilla, all of it's in the room right now. And it was live on CNN last night.

Tara, we'll leave it there. That was another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. I'm your host, Tara Palmieri. This was an emergency podcast. I may have to drop in again. If you like this show, please subscribe, rate it, share it with your friends. To include my reporting, go to puck.news.tara.palmeri. You can sign up for my newsletter, The Best and the Brightest, and use the discount code TARA20. I am off next week.

Again, I may have to drop back in. I'll return on July 15th.