Does the Trump Verdict Change Anything?
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Hi, I'm Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent, and this is Somebody's Gotta Win. I'm dropping in with an emergency podcast because yesterday, Thursday, May 30th was a historic day.

The former president, a presidential candidate, Donald Trump, was found guilty on 34 counts. He is a convicted felon. And I've got my friend and district attorney of Palm Beach, Dave Ehrenberg, on the line to sort of break it all down because now he has this presidential candidate and convicted felon living in his backyard.

What is that like, Dave? Good to be with you, Tara. You know, when they say that Joe Biden is the reason why Alvin Bragg

filed these charges that Biden and the White House are pulling the strings. I can tell you, being the state attorney that oversees Mar-a-Lago, that is completely false. I've never heard from the White House on anything. I have never even gotten invited to a White House holiday party. And if there was any state attorney who the White House would be calling, you would think it would be me, considering Donald Trump lives in my district, lives in my community. So let me put the kibosh on that

piece of misinformation right away. But otherwise, it's just like another day on the job to have Trump in your backyard. I think people who know how this works, they would know that, you know, there is no coordination, but there's no doubt that the D.A. is a Democrat. And he ran with a campaign that that was pretty clearly against Donald Trump and with the motivation.

to prosecute him. You're a Democrat as well. How long have you been in office now in Palm Beach? I'm in my 12th year. I'm in my final term. I could keep running if the people want me, but I decided not to seek a fourth term. And Dave is a really smart guy. He went to Harvard Law and he's on MSNBC a lot. So you can hear him

opining, I'm sure on the Trump trial as well. Hey, thank you, Tara. And Harvard undergraduate too, because my mom will insist that I mentioned that. Although with everything that's going on at Harvard's campus, I haven't been able to brag about my alma mater too much lately. So,

So really, you're saying there's nothing different having a convicted felon in your backyard. What if he's remanded? Would you have to extradite him? Would you have to go through any sort of steps to get him to New York if he refused? Yeah, if he tried to avoid the authorities in New York, which is not going to happen, but if he tried, then there's a process and the governor could try to get involved. And that's where you could have an interesting situation where

Governor DeSantis tries to become Trump's protector, but ultimately it will fail. And I think after everything DeSantis has gone through with Trump, that ain't going to happen. So Trump Trump's plan is to delay things, appeal and make sure he never has to serve a day in prison. He thinks if he can become president again, not only will he tell his attorney general

to undo all the federal charges against him. But he's also going to then surround himself in the White House with Secret Service and and taunt New York and Georgia, say, all right, guys, come and get me. And then you'll have a constitutional crisis. And he thinks we'll never have to serve a day in jail.

Our friend on the pod, Ellie Honig, who's a former Southern District attorney prosecutor, he put out an article in New York Magazine, and it sort of went over a lot of the points that he's made on this podcast. He thought that the case was middling. He didn't think it was very strong. But one of the points that he made was that he believed that the judge should have recused himself because he made a political donation. And what do you think about that as a DA? Would you have made the judge recuse themselves for making a political donation on a case like this? Well...

The DA really can't make the judge recuse himself. It's up to the judge. And then you can go to the appellate courts. But here's the thing. Judge Mershon got an opinion from the New York Ethics Board. The Ethics Board said it is not a conflict. It is not something that requires him to recuse himself because he made a very small series of donations more than two years ago. We're talking about a total of thirty five dollars dollars.

So, no, he doesn't have to do it. And unlike Justice Alito and Justice Thomas, he actually saw an opinion, got an opinion from the Ethics Commission, which ruled in his favor. It must be nice to be a Supreme Court justice. You get to fly flags upside down, take fancy trips with rich donors, and you get to make your own rules and interpret your own rules. Because if you think that you're abiding by the ethics rules, well, then you are. But Judge Mershon had to go through a board and he got...

A clean bill of health. Well, that's good to know, because right now the Trump camp is sending that around. Would you have tried the case? Well, that's a tough one. You know, I don't know. I'm not privy to all the stuff that Alvin Bragg has. From the beginning, I've thought this case was the fourth out of four of the criminal cases ever.

against Trump, meaning the least strong of the cases and also the one that had the least resonance with the American public. I mean, you had January 6th, which everyone knows about. That's meaningful. And that's the subject of the D.C. election interference case. You had Trump's attempts to overturn the election in Georgia in the Georgia case.

And of course, you have the Mar-a-Lago documents case in my backyard, which deals with government secrets, which is really important and everyone can understand them. This one was always going to be a tough lift for prosecutors, which is why they reframed it from a hush money trial to an election interference case, which does help.

show that it's more important than just paying off a porn star. You're talking about doing something that influenced and perhaps changed the results of the 2016 election. So in that sense, it is important. But whether I would have filed or not, I have to pass on that one. I just don't know. You're right, because it's a state case going after a federal charge, right? The federal charges were bigger and are seen by the public as more important. But state charges are

can be just as important. And that's the beauty of being a state prosecutor, Tara, that the president is not our boss. The attorney general, the governor, they're not our bosses. The people are our bosses. And so you have this federalist system where you have local DAs that have the power to indict a former president, which is really...

A unique feature, not a bug of our democracy. Interesting. So there have been a lot of misconceptions thrown around. There's an idea that Trump can't vote for himself in Florida because he's a convicted felon. Is that right? No, he's going to be able to vote for himself in November because in Florida, there is authority that...

while your appeal is pending, you still get to vote. And then you have New York law, which allows convicted felons to vote unless they are imprisoned. And there's no way that Trump's going to be behind bars during the election. So he's going to be able to vote for himself, although it is tantalizing to think that here's a guy who's going to be a president who couldn't vote for himself. But it is true that

If he's elected, he'll be the commander in chief of the armed services when he wouldn't be allowed to serve in the armed services because he's a convicted felon. Ah, that is interesting. I did not know that. So do you think...

He will ultimately be incarcerated. I think on this case, it's unlikely. I think in the other cases, if they go to trial, then yes, I think it's very possible. But in this case, although it is it's possible, it's unlikely because Judge Mershon knows that most other defendants with no rap sheets, no priors like Donald Trump generally get probation. Maybe he gets house arrest.

But on the other hand, he does get to consider the 10 violations of the gag order that Trump did, all the attacks that Trump made on Rashad, on the prosecutors, his lack of remorse, his insolence during the trial. He gets to take that all into account. So,

There are reasons that Judge Merchant wants to send him to Rikers, but I don't think he's going to go there. I don't envision Trump wearing an orange jumpsuit anytime soon. I mean, I can't imagine it either. He's 77 or 78 years old in prison. Yeah, it's hard to imagine that. Yeah, they don't have Big Macs. They do have ketchup in prison, but not.

Big Max. Would you have sent him to prison for this kind of crime? No, I don't think so. Maybe some house arrest at most. But no, I don't see him going to prison or even county jail, where if it's less than a year, you go to county jail. But no, I think the more serious crimes are yet to come. And of course, if he becomes president again, then they all go away. Right. But that crime doesn't go away. So if he is in the White House,

then he probably can't serve his time, right? Isn't that how it works? Or would he be under house arrest in the White House? You asked the right questions. We've never been down this road before. No one can tell you with certainty what would happen, but the Secret Service would be involved in some way. So I would suspect that if he...

gets sentenced at prison time, and then he gets elected president, then the prison time would be stalled, would be postponed until after he leaves the White House, which of course, if he becomes president again, that day he leaves the White House, maybe never. So, you know, there's a lot of unknowns out there with this. I know a lot of people have been putting that out there. I mean, who knows? It's possible, but...

A lot of things would have to change. You'd have to change the Constitution. I think you need two-thirds majority in the House and Senate. We're not seeing that. But you know what? You never know. I'm not going to throw it out there and say it can't happen. But what if he ends up not winning and the judge says, we're putting you under house arrest? Does that mean he has to serve his house arrest in New York or can he serve it in Mar-a-Lago? Which is basically like being in a resort.

All the time. He lives under house arrest kind of right now. That's the other weird thing. But like by choice. Right, right. Those who spend time in Palm Beach rarely ever see him out beyond the friendly confines of Mar-a-Lago. It's not like you see him out at the local brewery. He is there. He has a beautiful estate. I don't care what people say. I think Mar-a-Lago is a beautiful place. And

And I go there once a year for the policeman's ball. It's a pretty place. So he'll get to do it there is my expectation. It's a secure place. The Secret Service can be there and protect him while he's there. So I know it doesn't sound like much punishment for him to be stuck at Mar-a-Lago, but...

To tell a person like Donald Trump, not only are you a convicted felon, but you are restricted on where you can go and you have to get a course permission anytime you want to leave home. Well, yeah, that's not going to do much for his ego. He's going to hate that.

There'll be a lot of ketchup thrown against the wall. It can be a little tacky in there, but it's not the worst place to be trapped. That's for sure. But, you know, it's funny because didn't Bill Clinton call the White House a prison or a penitentiary? Yeah, I don't feel sorry for those guys who get to live so nicely in prison. Check out the local institutions like the place where Jeffrey Epstein and Harvey Weinstein, those guys stay. Now, those places are dumps. Well,

Epstein didn't last very long in there. Yeah, yeah. Well, yeah, that's another reason why I believe he killed himself. I mean, it's either there or live with the rats because that's that place was a sewer and disgusting. And, you know, a guy who's used to privilege and and

beautiful houses, doesn't like to have to eat with his own hands without some gold-plated forks. You know what? I think it's interesting that you're a Jeffrey Epstein truther. You think he killed himself. You know, I'm a prosecutor. And as a prosecutor, Tara, we believe in facts and evidence. And until you can show me some real evidence...

that it was a homicide. It was a suicide. The fact is he tried to commit suicide just a couple of days prior to that. And also I know when people are saying, well, why were the guards asleep? Why weren't the cameras working? You know why? Because it's government. And that's the kind of things that happen in government. Trust me, I've been in government for a lot of years. Really?

He seemed to be OK in Palm Beach County jail. But then again, he got out on on like what he basically was allowed to leave during the day. Yeah, that was the work release program. And that was before I got there. You know, that's although it was my office who handled the case, it was Wooten.

years before I got to be state attorney. It was six years before I ever got there when the case was finalized. So we don't put that on Dave, by the way. Oh, good. If you are interested in Jeffrey Epstein, I have two great podcasts on it. Oh, yeah. Well, actually, you're the boss on that. You know that was better than anyone. You have Broken Jeffrey Epstein and then Power the Maxwells. If you're feeling like a good binge, check it out. Season two is mine. You know, I don't actually ever promote my Jeffrey Epstein podcast on this podcast, but...

You've just brought back memories for me when we were talking about prisons. This episode is brought to you by Experian. I don't know if you've ever looked in your subscriptions on your phone and noticed that you had like four or five subscriptions. Maybe you didn't realize you were still paying for, or maybe you got some email for something and you're like, I thought I canceled that. Well,

This is what happens. These days, anyone could be missing out on savings from subscriptions they've totally forgotten about. It's not just the ones you forgot to get rid of, it's the ones that they have better deals. And that's where Experian comes in. It's like a personal assistant for your subscriptions. It can cancel over 200 plus subscriptions in categories like streaming services, meal kits, entertainment apps, and more. You could save an average of $270 per year

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Any last thoughts on this? You know, if I could just make a couple of thoughts about the case in itself. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Let me tell you, I really think that Trump's lawyers, his defense lawyers committed to

big errors in the case that I think helped lead to his conviction. Number one, they adopted the lie that Trump had no sexual relations with that woman, Stormy Daniels. And I think that was really damaging because the story that this was just an extortion attempt, they never had sex, was so ridiculous that

It had to cost not only Todd Blanche, but Donald Trump credibility. And Blanche repeated that. Yeah, that's a fair point. No one believed that they didn't hook up. No. And you know that had to come from Trump. Trump was the one who probably said, don't accept it. Deny, deny, deny. And Blanche went along with it. But I think it hurt them. But here's the other thing.

More importantly, Todd Blanch claimed in his opening statement and kept this theory throughout the case that the $35,000 a month that Trump paid Michael Cohen was not to reimburse him for the Stormy Daniels payments. But why would you have to say that? Because I think

That the best defense Trump had would be to say that, yeah, I reimbursed Michael Cohen. He was my lawyer. Hence, those were legal services. Legal services is such a broad term. It can encompass when I pay my lawyer to deal with this NDA matter. And I think that would have made it tougher for prosecutors to establish the mens rea, the criminal intent needed to convict him. But no, no.

What Todd Blanch did was say this was not a reimbursement. These were legitimate legal fees. But Cohen didn't do any legal work for Trump after that. There was no retainer. And that defense that they put on made it easier for prosecutors to prove that Trump acted deceptively in turning an

obvious $130,000 reimbursement into a bogus $420,000 quote legal expense. And see, now Dave is going to be available soon for hire as a defense attorney, right? Once you leave the DA's office. I will be going to the private sector in January. Exactly. Aaron Bergen Associates, I can hear it now. Would you feel like that his legal team has just dropped the ball on all these cases? Yes.

He's lost the past three cases, or is it just that the juries hate him? I don't know how much of it were the decisions made by his legal team and how much of it was Trump ordering his people to do it.

But I can tell you that putting Robert Costello on the stand was a disaster. And the only reason, according to reports, that Robert Costello was called to the stand as the only substantive witness for Donald Trump's offense was because Donald Trump wanted him to be called because Trump is a consumer of right wing media and right wing media were extolling Costello's virtue, saying he is the key to undermining Michael Cohen. So.

So that just blew up in their face. Just to recall to our listeners, in case they weren't following it that closely, how did Robert Costello fail on the stand? Well, Robert Costello was the guy who...

Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani allegedly sent to talk to Michael Cohen to try to represent Michael Cohen and feed information back to Trump. It was to try to convince Cohen to play ball and the big man that you're friends in high places and you'll be taken care of that kind of stuff. And it just made Trump look like a mafia boss when those text messages came out in front of the jury. So that was bad enough. But even worse,

was the attitude that Costello had on the stand when he was antagonizing Judge Marchand, saying things under his breath, mocking Judge Marchand. And Judge Marchand had enough with him, sent the jury out of the room and then lambasted the guy. And the jury got wind of that. The jury certainly felt the vibe in the room and it discredited the only substantive witness Trump had. So it's a terrible look. It undermined his whole case and it buttressed the

the testimony of the guy that Costello was trying to,

to undermine, and that is Michael Cohen. It made Michael Cohen more credible and it destroyed Trump's defense. So how do you like them apples? Okay, so Trump should really stick to his lane, which is politics and not trying to win his own legal cases. And now that documents case, which is also in your jurisdiction, right? Well, it's a federal case, but the judge is in Palm Beach. What are your thoughts on that? That case was in the West Palm Beach division, but then it got...

randomly assigned to Judge Aileen Cannon, who is in a satellite courthouse in Fort Pierce, which is in St. Lucie County, two counties north. That's one of the reasons why she has been slow walking this case. That's the best possible judge for Trump, because not only did he appoint her, but

I think a big reason why she's slow walk the case is that she's inexperienced and is all alone in Fort Pierce in that satellite courthouse. There's no senior judge to help her. Her clerks are there with her, but there's a revolving door of her clerks who have left for various reasons. And so that case, which is the strongest case against Donald Trump, is also the one that's going to take the longest to go to trial and may never go to trial again.

if Trump becomes president again. What's your gut say? Do you think this has any political impact, this verdict? I think I'll have some. I think any political impact would be negative on Trump and any negative impact could help decide the election in a very tight election where you have only a handful of voters and a handful of swing states that really matter.

And so, yeah, I don't see how this helps Trump. I know it motivates his base, but his base. I said that, too. I don't believe it helps Trump. I think that ultimately it's not a good thing for him, although he did raise a ton of money. Apparently he raised thirty four million dollars yesterday. Well, so they said. Yeah. And they said that 30 percent were new donations to win red, which is small dollar donations. So it's obviously activating their base.

But you're right. It's going to come down to a bunch of people who haven't made up their minds. And I don't see how being guilty of 34 felonies helps with low information swing voters. I don't see what those headlines all across the country and every local newspaper guilty, guilty, guilty. I don't see how that helps him amongst those voters. And here's the other thing. It definitely doesn't help him, but I'm not sure how much it's going to hurt him in six months.

When you've already got a factor in this, he's got 54 other charges against him. And we've known all along that he has 88 indictments. Oh, Tara, one thing you want to mention, it is firing up the Democratic base. There's no doubt that the Biden voters who are lackluster are now fired up after this. Yeah, I wrote about this in my newsletter yesterday. You can call me a cynic, but I'm not sure what kind of impact

This is going to have on the election six months from now. It's a long time and voters may have other priorities. They already knew that Trump had 88 charges underneath his belt before this. And you've already have all these other things baked into the Donald Trump candidacy. The porn stars, the insurrection, Charlottesville, you know,

you could just keep going. So I'm not entirely sure what kind of impact it has, but I think you're right that it could impact some independent voters, but it depends on how they're feeling around the election. And I wouldn't trust any of the snap polling. I would wait and see.

And we've got a long time to go. So thanks again for being on the show, Dave. This was really useful. I loved your analysis and your insight. I love it. Thank you, Tara. That was another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. I'm your host, Tara Palmieri. I want to thank my producers, Christopher Sun and Connor Nevins. If you like this podcast, please subscribe, rate it, send it to your friends. If you like my reporting, please go to puff.news slash Tara Palmieri and sign up for my newsletter, The Best and the Brightest.

You can use the discount code Tara20. I'll be back on Tuesday.