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Hi, I'm Tara Palmieri. I'm Puck's senior political correspondent, and this is Somebody's Gotta Win. On this episode, we're going to dive into Joe Biden's shaky relationship with Latino voters that could come back to bite him in the next election. But first, here's an update on the speaker's race. Nine people who you have never heard of decided that they wanted to run for speaker.
There was a meeting on Monday night, a conference meeting with all the Republicans, and only one of them decided to drop out. So yes, we might be in it for many days before these Republicans consolidate around one nominee. And who's to say that that person can even get to 217 or 218 to actually become Speaker of the House? As we know, this is quite a fractious conference and everyone pretty much hates each other.
The presumed frontrunner, Tom Emmer, was... You know, there was this whisper campaign that said he had beef with Donald Trump because he voted to certify the election for Joe Biden. But Donald Trump just said in an interview in New Hampshire that he's cool with Tom Emmer. I'm starting to think that...
Trump's endorsement doesn't even really matter these days in the speaker's race. It surely didn't help Jim Jordan. He wasn't able to get the votes either. So Republicans have another conference meeting tomorrow. And I don't know, maybe they'll be able to whittle down the group a little bit further. But...
I don't know that they will actually have one nominee to go to the floor in the next few days. And time is running out. We need to fund our own government and aid needs to go to Israel and Ukraine. So back to this episode on 2024. This will be a very tight election, just like it was in 2020. It might come down to a few elections.
100,000 voters in battleground states. That's why every piece of the Biden coalition matters. The big part of that coalition are Hispanic voters, Black voters, and the youth bloc. But it's looking increasingly shaky.
We're a year out and Democrats are starting to realize that they have a Latino problem. They've had it probably for the past five election cycles. That's why they lost Florida, which has become pretty much red. And Texas has become this white whale that they have been unable to flip.
And Arizona looks like it might be the decider in the next cycle, the difference between whether we have a Republican or a Democrat in the White House. It might be that make or break state. It's a state where one out of every five voters is Hispanic or Latino. So there are tons of these Latino persuasion groups out there.
that are trying to get out the vote, but a lot of them focus on immigration, DACA, and the border. But focus groups seem to show that Latino voters are not only concerned about migration, DACA, and the border. In fact, a lot of them rate the economy, jobs, crime, and education over migration. And they seem to feel like they're being spoken to as if they are the same monolithic group when they're not.
And maybe Democrats should be focusing on more kitchen table issues when talking to Latino voters. Perhaps that's the reason why they're starting to migrate to the GOP. I've brought on the messenger to Adrian Carrasquillo. He's been covering Latino voters for a long time to sort of break down this new phenomenon and talk about what we should expect in the next election and what Democrats are seeing now a year out.
I'm joined by Adrian Carrasquillo. He is the national political correspondent for The Messenger, and he focuses on Latinos in the 2024 race. And, you know, I just want to give everyone a little bit of a state of the race, latest poll kind of preface. As we know, elections are not won by the popular vote.
You can just ask Hillary Clinton that, right? In recent history, it's been the Electoral College. That's why we're always so focused on the seven battleground or seven swing states. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And two of those swing states...
Arizona and Nevada have a high propensity of Latino voters, perhaps one in five voters are Latino. And that's why we really pay attention to them and which way they go. A new morning consult poll is, you know, has some mixed opinions.
information for Biden based on this. Trump is leading Biden in Arizona by four points, and that's obviously a state with a high contingency of Latino voters. But in Nevada, where the Biden campaign also admits that they're soft with Latino voters, he's leading Trump by three points. So, Adrian, I know that you scooped up a memo from one of the Latino-focused super PACs supporting Joe Biden that states that
you know, if the election were held today, Biden would risk underperforming with a Latino vote and it would jeopardize his ability to carry these critical states again. So is it possible that Biden's soft support with Latinos could actually cost him the election? Yeah. So I love how you started the conversation. First, I want to say I love the ringer. So this is really cool. And I really enjoy that. And I appreciate you having me. But, you know, it's something that literally when I
As you said, I focus on the Latino vote. But, you know, when I was talking, when I was going to get this job at the messenger, I said, you know, have you heard of these two states, Arizona and Nevada? They will decide the presidency. They might decide the Senate. And that's sort of where you start, right? In 2020, a lot of reporters were trying to get, you know, how much is Biden spending on his Latino vote thing? Eventually, I got it. It was $125 million. But really where that focus and where it ended up paying off for them wasn't places like Nevada, places like Arizona. They wanted Arizona by like,
a little bit over 10,000 votes in Nevada, 22,000 votes. So these are places that they know that they have super close, razor-thin margins, and Latino voters could really be the difference, particularly in those two states. And if you look at their spending early on, by the way, their spending is in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, you know, so that's on Latinos. So that shows you that they know how important that is. So what you're saying is the...
Latinos could be the linchpin for Biden this time around. Yeah, I think they know that. And that's, you know, so you see all this spending, you know, I had this other story where there are Spanish language spending, they've outspent, you know, Trump 531,000 to zero. And why they have to do that is because they have some softness in areas like are with Latino men, you know, so you have to be out early, you have to be trying to reach people in ways that
We probably all remember when, you know, Obama was trying to define Romney really early on. And maybe we didn't realize how important that was. And later on, we kind of realized that you were able to like set a little bit of a concrete idea in the voters' minds of who this person was. Oh, you mean when he was like trying to define him as a private equity tycoon who was raiding companies? Yeah, exactly. Yeah. And so, but like, I think something similar is going on right now. Now, you know, Trump has some of this, you know, sort of the Teflon Don thing does extend, I think,
a little bit to Latinos. And that's, I've seen that with Latino men, with former military guys, people who sort of have, you know, like the swagger or they like the American dream thing. And so there's definitely an issue where the Biden campaign knows it has to focus on
particularly on what they're doing on the economy is a big thing for Latino men as well. Right. And also it's like, if you're a naturalized citizen or you're a second or first generation Latino, it's a lot like being a first generation, second generation European. I mean, even knowing like having Italian American heritage, like you consider yourself to be American, you no longer really identify in the same way with, you know, your, your native country. And so it's,
I think the Latino-Hispanic vote is not monolithic. They come for all different reasons. For example, Cubans, Venezuelans, they came escaping socialism and communism, and they tend to lean farther to the right. I remember going to a rally in South Florida with Trump. He was just speaking directly to the Venezuelan vote. And look at how red Florida has become, which is, I guess, a pretty...
predominantly Hispanic state, correct? Huge proportions, you know, everywhere from Puerto Ricans, Cubans, Colombians, Venezuelans, exactly what you're saying is right. I mean, I even brought, you know, I wanted to bring you the good stuff, Tara. There's this Univision poll. It was like one of the most robust polls
bipartisan polls of the cycle. And they had a fascinating thing in there that I was going to write about, but I sort of like took out that nugget for the future. And it's that with English speaking Latinos, Biden is at 46% to 43%, only 3%.
It's with Spanish speakers that he's at 62 to 26. And that speaks to your point, which is like, if you're here, if you speak only English, you're really Americanized. You're just as up for grabs as anybody else. It's when you're this like real Spanish, Spanish speaker, really connected with,
where you're from and also sort of like, you know, your Spanish language roots and maybe you're getting more of your news from a Univision or Telemundo, things like that. But once you're doing the English speaker like us, you know, then it's sort of, and so you'll see that that's where the Biden campaign is trying to spend on Spanish speaking.
Yeah, if they're recent immigrants, they might be interested in chain migration to bringing their family over. Immigration is always one of those. And for such a long time, people were thinking, well, Trump, the way he's speaking about Hispanics or immigrants, like that's going to be a non-starter. And that used to be literally like
the orthodoxy among the democratic party. Like if we don't talk well about immigration, you're done. And, and we've seen a lot of folks, there's a lot of stuff that people that he says that appeals to people. Um, it reminds me a little bit of Abbott in 2022 was doing this God family and country message. And I've heard that from Texas Democrats who tell me that, you know, one, one Texas Democrat, I know they've been, they've been part of the democratic party for like three decades. And they say that their family's like, look,
we still vote blue because of you, but Democrats are not selling anything that we're buying in terms of like this idea, maybe that we're, it's a, they, they are, they perceive it as like the Democrats kind of see them more as victims or whatever, whereas they want to do this.
American dream, buy a house, get a car, good job, good schools, you know, so it's fascinating. And like you said, and that's such an important point to underline, it's not monolithic. The voters in the Southwest are much different than in Florida or in the Northeast, things like that.
Also, they can probably trace their roots to the land that they're on, that it was like formerly Mexico and now is America. It is interesting to me that 8% of Latinos have gone to Trump. And I wonder if they will come back again this cycle. I mean, what's your thinking? Like, did the Democrats lost those people? Yeah, I don't think they're lost, right? So, you know, that Univision poll that I was citing, it was, you know, basically like 58% for Biden. And that's where...
That's where Democrats have been in 2022, 2020, kind of in this 60% range. Now Republicans and Republican Latinos will quickly remind you 60, 40 is not where things used to be. So that's sort of the starting point. Like that's pretty wild. But what we saw in that was that Trump was a little bit more in like the, like 30% range. So there's, there's room for Democrats. There's room for Biden to grow with those voters.
But that's why I think it's so up in the air. And you and I both know it's where the economy is going to land, right? I had this story, I think the one you were citing with Way to Win, and they had these focus groups. And it's like English and Spanish speakers in Nevada and Arizona. And they're consistently talking about, well, inflation. Inflation is not great or the cost of goods and things.
like that. And a lot of times it's going to come down to, of course, if the economy worsens, but also they're going to be making that comparison. How am I now? How was I during Trump? And so that's where I think some of the softness lies when it comes to that economic message as well. Yeah. So they're actually mentioning Bidenomics and they're saying that it has not improved their life. Yeah. I had this funny story with our White House correspondent, which was like,
how do you say Bidenomics in Spanish? And it was like, because it's like the economy in Spanish. Yeah. Like, yeah, I mean, they don't, I don't think they know necessarily what Bidenomics is, but yeah, no, they're, they're thinking about where things are in terms of the economy. And that's the thing that people consistently say that like Latino men care a lot about is where's the end is the Biden administration and campaign telling that story effectively.
Does Bidenomics, Trump, don't mean to use the word Trump, but is that ahead of migration for Latinos in terms of importance of issues? Yeah, you know, it was fascinating. In 2020, I was talking to a pollster and, you know, shifting to Arizona, but on the topic of what you just mentioned. And they said, you know, for the first time we found in our polling, immigration was not top five in Arizona. And that's sort of
went off in my head where I was like, wow, we hear about Arizona, we hear about the border, but immigration had dropped down because of the economy where we were with COVID and COVID and economy and COVID were like one and two. Now, as you know, COVID has receded from the importance, right? And like consistently in polling, economy jobs is always number one when it comes to Hispanic voters. I think
I think the Democratic Party is completely lost when it comes to migration right now. You've got, you know, New York Mayor Eric Adams, New York Governor Kathy Hochul. You've got J.B. Pritzker in Illinois, the governor of Illinois, all saying we can't handle all these migrants coming on buses from Texas, from the border states, from Florida, etc., etc.
And for a long time, I thought that Democrats were afraid to alienate their Latino base by taking a hard line on migration. But I think now that they're experiencing it in their own cities, in their own blue cities, and they don't know how to deal with the influx-- I think New York had 100,000 migrants come this summer.
the Democrats are like, are at a loss. They don't know what to do. I mean, they're starting to talk about border security, which is something that they, I think, were afraid to talk about before. Do you see the Democratic platform like drastically shifting? And if so, will this alienate some, you know, Latino voters that they need? Yeah, I think it's fascinating what you're talking about. And I thought that was so interesting because when we saw recently, so, you know, if folks are not as caught up on the border wall stuff,
Basically, Trump, it was like, you know, the monument to his like restrictive immigration policy was the border wall. He was going to build it, et cetera. Mexico was going to pay for it. So obviously the border wall is unfinished. There's large swaths around the border where, you know, there's no border wall yet.
But the Biden administration recently authorized for a piece of border wall to be built. And their argument is like, oh, the money's already appropriated from like the Trump era. But this used to be, Democrats used to be like, the border wall was like, they were holding hands, they were protesting no to the border wall. And now it's, you know, they're allowing it. So I recently had this story that basically broke down to how Republicans have won on immigration because they're winning the narrative battle when it comes to the border, which everybody, you know,
everybody's talking about the border. Even Democrats are accepting the border is in crisis. It's a porous border. There's issues right now. But you see that also now on policy where like they're even accepting the border wall stuff. So I think it's a really fascinating issue. What you just talked about, you know, people in blue cities, they always used to, everybody used to tow the party line of being very accepting on immigration. And now you've got the local and in New York and, you know, all across the country, more,
democratic officials talking about, well, we need to close the border. You know, the federal government, the Senate, the Congress needs to do their job and like close the border. And that's just fascinating coming from Democrats. Like is the Biden campaign going to see immigration as a winning issue in 2024 and return back to some of that stuff that we're familiar with, with Democrats, whether it was Hillary in 2016, Obama in 2012, talking about,
you know, immigration. Yeah, that's like positive, like the humanity of what it brings. But let me tell you something, Tara, all you have to do is look at Arizona. Mark Kelly over there, the way that Mark Kelly won in Arizona, he wasn't talking about the humanity stuff that a lot of Democrats have talked forever about immigration. He was talking about strictly tunnel focused, like jobs, jobs that come through the border, but making it an economic argument.
And Mark Kelly is really popular down there, but he did great. So talking about how migrants come and they fill much needed jobs that are open, is that what he's thinking? Well, no, I mean, also that when Arizonans get jobs from the border, right? From what's going on and being a border state and how much money is coming in
manufacturing warehouses where you have. So it's sort of like staying away from saying we have these people who live with us and there are neighbors and we should treat them well. They should be able to stay here legally. That was always the democratic argument. And now it's more of like, you know, immigration is good for our economy. And like, you know, the people who live here,
benefit from this. But along with that, you'll hear people like Kelly talking about border security and how it's important that if people are coming in here illegally, that they should not be able to stay and different things like that. Democrats will probably just ignore this issue altogether around election year. That's what I think will happen for fear of alienating
Latino voters, right? I mean, they have to be concerned about that. Right now, you know, we think about like anything Trump says on these issues, like no one cares. Trump right now is he's like returning really, really far to the right of immigration. He was in Iowa, New Hampshire recently, he said stuff about how undocumented immigrants are poisoning the blood of the country, like, where one who's like really respected the president of LULAC,
said that it reminds him of Nazi stuff about Jews. I mean, it's so... When Trump is going that far right, that gets at what you're talking about, Tara, which is like, are Democrats sort of in the center, and this conversation is happening in the center and on the right, or are Democrats going to fight back, is the Biden administration going to say, and the Biden campaign going to say?
this is not okay where Trump is going. And so that's sort of an interesting thing to keep an eye on too. If, because if Trump continues to go for the right on immigration, do Democrats stand and fight for something? It is kind of crazy how there's just like no outrage anymore to whatever Trump says. He's just gone so far so many times that I didn't even know he said this. And I'm a journalist who covers the campaign. And it's like, oh, okay. Probably because it didn't even get a mention in the New York times or it didn't even get picked up. Maybe he got a tweet.
He can just say these like outlandish psychotic things. And then, but at the same time, I mean, you and I both covered the Trump White House. We were also criticized for covering everything he did. It was really tough to actually, you know,
to, to report on Trump. I mean, I know he's a candidate, but he's the leading candidate. So he should be treated like he's the nominee. He's leading by 40 points. And he's also crazy. He's playing the hits. And I think to your point of why, like these things sort of don't register sometimes the other day, he said he's going to do the large deportation operation in American history, bigger than Eisenhower's operation wetback, which is of course infamous and sort of offensively named and all those things. And it's like,
He said this in 2015. I was like, it kind of rang a bell and I researched it. He has said this stuff before. So it's not like he's coming up with these like sort of new policies. He's just like, he believes what he's always believed. But, but he's also trying to like, you know, which is baseless by the way, he's trying to like tie like sort of,
migrants coming here across the U.S.-Mexico border to what's going on in Israel. So he's always going to be hardline on immigration. And yeah, I think that the real open question is where are Democrats going to land on that? Because if they continue sort of putting their head in the sand, they're really letting Republicans run with this issue. And they're running to the right, obviously. Right. And even if they're running to the right,
Even Latinos, they don't want, you know, especially if they live in my border states, they're afraid of cartels coming through. They're afraid of migrants coming through undocumented people. They probably see the strain on their state resources. There's clearly a crisis at the border. It's such a politically divisive issue for Democrats to take it up because the far left of the party will say, you know, that they are not being humane enough or, you know what I'm saying, that they'll be criticized for even wanting to close the border, right? Yeah.
That's pretty much what happens. Yeah, no, absolutely. I mean, look, I did this story the other day and you're talking to Veronica Escobar, who's a co-chair of the Biden campaign. And she's trying to make the points that Biden is so like he inherited this broken asylum system that Trump like
like systematically basically tried to destroy purposely and that Biden is nowhere where Trump was on immigration. But the problem for Democrats is they're saying like on day one, Biden introduced like comprehensive immigration reform, which was dead on arrival, right? In the Congress. And there's just stuff that Democrats have tried to do. That's not moving at all. And so Republicans are easily able to just be like zeroing in on the borders of Rome. Look, here's what I will say. This language about the border, it like,
It is effective right now, as we see with what's going on with Democrats and people being scared about what's going on the border. It also doesn't work all the time. Like in 2018, Trump was talking about caravans and it was all over Fox News. And there was there was these caravans coming and he tried to make demonize the issue. And there was a blue wave. Right. So it's just it is an issue. It is an important issue in the general election. But it's always it sort of plays with those others in terms of how important it is.
You keep saying Latino men. What's the difference between Latino men and Latino women when it comes to voting? Yeah, so I actually brought a little bit of stats. So 2020 exit polls, Biden gets 69% from Latinas. He gets 59% from Latino men. So that's 10 points less from Latino men. Trump gets 30% from Latinas.
but he gets 36% from Latino men. So that's 6% up more from Latino men. Now, what's interesting, that was 2020. Now you look at 2022, way to win had this huge exit poll interview survey, 3,600 people, Latino men supported Democrats at 58%.
Latinas were at 66%. Okay, wow. So, you know, a lot of the folks that I talk to say that whether it's on issues from, you know, abortion to, you know, different issues, LGBT,
that Democrats know how to speak to Latinas, but when, and, and, and they, and they can talk about issues and Latino women, just like black women, they vote more than, than their, than their men counterparts. You know, they voted higher levels and they vote for Democrats. Um, it's when you get to Latino men, that that becomes a thing where it's sort of like,
Not exactly sure how to speak to them. For a while, Democrats would also sort of push back on this. If you came to talk about it to them, they would be like, oh, it's overblown. It's not that big of an issue. I got this email where the DNC basically created this Hispanic men advisory group, and they said, we have significant work to do in the Latino community, especially in reaching Latino men. So that was the first time the Democratic Party had ever concluded they have a
problem and that's in the year 2023 right so they're doing this work some of it's behind the scenes but they just they know that there's a difference there between men and women in the latino community and they're trying to reach them as well as young voters um to try to get those margins up so that they don't lose in places like arizona nevada democrats are still able to say like
We're doing okay because they can hold the line in the Southwest. The second that that slips, we saw Sisolak, the Democratic governor, lost in Nevada. Catherine Cortez Massa, the first U.S. Latina senator, U.S. senator who's Latina, she won by 8,000 votes. So the Republicans really feel they have a chance in places like Nevada, Arizona, and Latino men are going to be a very persuadable group to fight for.
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So I don't know. What you're saying in these focus groups and these polls, it's like a big issue for them is Bidenomics. They feel like the economy is not working for them. How can the Biden administration correct this? They go out on the road, try to get press for what they're doing. Doesn't really work. Bidenomics is now like...
branded as something that's like... It's not like Reaganomics, like the good old days. Bidenomics kind of feels like Obamacare where it's like, oh, it's a lot of problems and glitches or it just doesn't have the kind of sparkle that you would want from a legislative vehicle. So what can you do? I mean, you just spend money on advertising that targets these different groups of
Latinos, like you spend money talking to them in Spanish or like you hit them while they're watching football. I mean, it's...
does that even work? Like, can you just tell someone like, feel it? It feels good. The economy's great. And then they're like, wait, my checking and savings account is like down to zero. No, I'm not buying it. I mean, Biden's been trying to pass student debt relief to try to win back younger voters, but like, have they, are there any like policy proposals in the mix? Or maybe you think that advertising is effective. Like maybe I don't buy advertising. I also don't watch a lot of TV, but I'm skeptical. Yeah.
about their their approach yeah no look i think i think it's a lot of the things you mentioned and it's i don't think i'm not necessarily scattershot but yeah trying a lot of the things you mentioned so so many people that i talk to democrats will say um that they're trying to say you know inflation reduction act you know help latinos the by power that bipartisan structural laws bring all these jobs one of their first ads was you literally saw a latino guy in a construction helmet
You know, so they are trying to make the point like we're helping you. You're making a great point. Like if you tell me the economy is great, but I don't personally feel that for my family, that's a tough sell. What they're trying to do right now is a positive buy-in message and it's no negative Trump stuff yet. You're not seeing that, right? Right. And it's this message that's like,
not Biden did this for you, but these policies allowed you to lift yourself up. So it's not saying like, hey, look, guys, you needed our help. Luckily, Biden came to save you. They're trying to do this message that's like a lot of them are like nosotros, like us together with us. And it's a lot of this stuff of like during coronavirus, you know, we did these policies, but then the community rose up and was successful. So it's trying to be this positive message, which I think we've seen in the past.
didn't work so much for Hillary, worked for Obama, you know, like us together. And there's going to have to be a lot of negative Trump stuff later in the cycle. He becomes an army. But also like it kind of doesn't also address the real issue when you say us together, when really Latinos are not all the same. Like, I mean, how do you even speak to them in the same accent?
it's like Puerto Rican speak different than Dominican speak different than Mexican speak different than Cubans like it's just like us together we're not all the same it's like if you went to like white people and we're like us together it's like no we're not all just white people I make that you know what I mean like you could be of Lebanese design you could be of like you know I make that argument all the time where I'm like there's not
there's not white people ads, there's Kentucky voters, there's Michigan voters, you know, everybody gets treated like they're different, which is a wild thing. But no, I mean, you're right. It's like,
some of the stuff they do for example they'll do one ad where somebody has a puerto rican accent they'll do one ad where somebody has a mexican accent and they'll put the mexican accent stuff more let's say in the southwest from places where there's like predominantly you know in some of these places where it's like 90 or 70 hispanic they're predominantly let's say mexican american so they do some of that stuff some of the stuff they're trying also in terms of like these different approaches they're doing spanglish stuff which like
If you talk to a lot of people who are Hispanic, they're like, what is that about? That sounds weird to me. What I've heard explained to me is that if you speak Spanish, but you sort of have the TV on and you're doing other stuff in the house, getting the kids ready for school, but you hear Spanish, your ear kind of is like, what's going on? And so...
pay attention. So, and then, and the other piece, and so that's a lot on TV and on streaming. And the other thing is Hispanics are disproportionately younger. And so reaching them on places like Spotify and YouTube are like effective ways to try to reach them. You can go on language, you can go on geography, you can go on immigration and you can sort of slice and dice there because Hispanics are all different. Um, so that's some of the approaches that you do, you know, and it's, and it's just fascinating where we're,
we are now. I mean, this information is something that Democrats talk a lot about and Republicans say is not a thing, but really interesting where there'll be, you know, on YouTube where the algorithm or things can be real or not. There was like polling done by Equis that like sort of, I never forgot looking at Florida and it was like,
Hispanics get their news 66% from YouTube, but in Florida it was 75%. And so these are also the issues where you have people, this fractured media environment that you and I know very well. People on YouTube, you know what Trump did in 2020, which people do not realize was a thing? Trump took the YouTube homepage, and it was Jorge Masvidal talking about Latino men, talking about a manly dude who beats people up for a living. And it was Jorge Masvidal talking about vote for Trump
And that basically Democrats are socialists. Machismo. He totally played into that stereotype. From my source, YouTube is not going to let you do that anymore. Buying the youtube.com homepage with ads. So these are ways that he was able to make some of those probably maybe reminding some low propensity Latino men like, Oh, actually, I'm gonna go vote for Trump.
today. Are a lot of Hispanics low propensity voters? Would you say that? I think when I talk to folks in a lot of these places in Pennsylvania, different places for sure, when they're trying to reach a lot of Hispanic men, black men, they're definitely put them in the bucket of like a low propensity voter where they feel they have to activate them or they feel that. And a lot of people will say, and I think it's a
or for your audience, it's not that Democrats are in mass going to vote for Republicans, but do they stay at home? Do they become apathetic? Do they say like, I really don't like Republicans, but Democrats aren't offering me any reason to get up off the couch. So I think that that's a part of it too, where they are persuadable and they are available, but Biden is going to have to go and get them.
Okay, I'm going to touch on a nerve to end this one up. Can Biden even win without the coalition of Black and Hispanic voters? It's a great question. And I think that probably you talk to folks, like I'll talk to Republicans who, you know, worked for Trump in the past, and now maybe you're backing DeSantis or backing someone else. And they say that independent voters hate Trump. And I have a really good source who's really steeped in the data who believes that
that Biden will actually get lower support with Hispanics and with Black voters, but that because Trump will do so badly with independent voters, that that's how Biden has a chance to win, basically. So, I mean, that's what we're going to see, but I don't think Democrats want to test that theory. Yeah, and none of the polling is really showing that right now. Like, you know, for a while, the White House was saying, oh, yeah, sure, Trump beats Biden.
Biden nationally, you know, but that doesn't matter. You don't win elections with a popular vote. It matters about the electoral vote and it matters in those seven swing states. But now we're seeing polling that shows Trump winning in various battleground states. So I don't know. I think...
We're still a year out, but it's certainly a lot closer than it was a year out in 2020 when Biden was beating Trump in all the polls and right up before as well. And, you know, another thing that people think, by the way, is that Trump, maybe his Latino vote numbers will creep up even more, a little higher.
but maybe he's going to make headway in places like New Jersey or in California where it doesn't affect the electoral outcome, but he's still, he's getting higher vote. And it, and it ends up coming down to where there's Biden. Where's the Biden campaign spending money in Spanish language. It's in Philadelphia, California,
It's in Las Vegas and it's in Phoenix because they think that to win those three swing states, you're going to need the Latino vote. And that could, as we know, you don't decide the election right there. And how much does the Biden administration expect to spend on Hispanics in this election? You know, that's always stuff that like in 2020, they got $365 million at the end of August. And then suddenly they turned on the spigot and they were spending a bunch of Latinos.
So I think it depends on how their overall fundraising is doing. And that's always like a battle between the campaign and, you know, folks that like want those numbers to go up higher. And then are you saying to yourself, well, actually I got to put Michigan, I got to put money in Wisconsin and things like that. So they're going to be spending a lot, I think. And we'll see if it, if it's more than 2020, I would expect that it would be. Okay. Thanks, Adrian. I really appreciate it. And let's check in again in a few months and see how it's going.
That was another episode of Somebody's Gotta Win. Thanks so much for listening. A big thanks to my all-star producer, Chris Sutton, who's been holding it down. If you like my reporting, you should sign up for my newsletter, The Best and the Brightest. Go to puck.news slash Tara Palmieri, and you can use the discount code Tara20 for 20% off. If you like this podcast, subscribe, share it with your friends, rate it. I'll be back on Thursday.
