OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
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Or everybody, let's get the show started here.

Just why wearing a tox? What's going on there?

Oh, well, it's time for a very emotional segment we do here on the all in podcast. It's going to get myself .

composed for this. M just not OK.

I'm gonna OK think .

fighting back at tear what? yeah.

This is always a tough one. This year, we tragically lost giants in our industry. These individuals bravely home their craft at open an eye before departing gillier susi ver.

He left. He left us in may. Young like a also left in may. John chen tragically left us in office.

But these are employees.

Yes, you hurt. So left on wednesday, bob. The grew also left on wednesday.

Too short.

short. And mirror moradi also left us tragic .

on wednesday.

yeah. And greg brock man is unextended leave .

the enforcer he left to thank you .

for your service. Your memories will live on best training data, and later memories be a vesting.

We open sources to the fans .

and they just got.

Sorry, my goodness, all those that is wow.

that three.

three in one day, my goodness, I thought open a eye was nothing without its people.

Well, I mean, this is, this is a great wall. We lost .

some time photo back to.

The future.

wow, they're just all gone. Wait on the door. He's replacing everybody here ago. He's replacing with A G one hundred. A bo got I guess sam got mountain of cash, so don't work.

He's got a back up flinch from anyway as an industry and as leaders in the industry, the show sends its regards to sam and the open a IT on their tragic losses. And congratulations on the hundred fifty billion dollar valuation in your seven percent. Sam, now just cash in ten billion dollars, apparently. So congratulations to fan of a friend of the pod, sam. Oman is the .

really is the really dud of some article, right? That's not like confirmed that is all of .

that that I mean, it's reportedly allegedly that he's gonna have seven percent of the company and we can jump right into our first story.

I mean, what i'm saying is, has the money been wired in the dogs and sign?

According to reports, this round is contingent and are not being non profit more. And sorting that all out.

they have to remove the profit cap.

Do the city there is some .

article that reported that s berg and got a lot attraction and IT reported by a lot of places. And I don't see anyone .

disputing IT. So mainstream media.

we trust the main three media in this case.

because the main meeting.

I think that when we do a good bit.

no.

I bloomberg, bloomberg reported IT based on, obviously, talks are ongoing with investors who have committed to the round yeah, and no one's disputing IT.

Has anyone said it's not true? This has been speculated for months the hundreds fifty billion dollar valuation, raising something in the range of six to seven billion. If you do the math on that and blue work is correct, that sam and got a seven percent .

of times, you can't raise six billion dollars without probably meeting with a few dozen firms. And some number of junior people in those few dozen firms are having a conversation or two with reporters. Oh, you can kind of see how that gets out right.

And before we get to our full story there about OpenAI, congratulations to cheatham. Let's pull up the photo here. He was a featured guest on the alex john show.

No, sorry. I'm sorry. That would be geo graduates on coming to Austin and being on georgia was IT like to do a three hour podcast with a rogan. It's great.

I mean, I loved IT. He is really awesome, is super cool. It's good to do a long form stuff like this so that I can actually .

talk clearly is the limitation of this pot. Guess is the other three of us. Finally, you have found a way to make IT about yourself.

Now I saw a comment. Somebody commented like, oh, wow, it's like amazing to hear to month expand on topic of concern .

eruptions check out also know this moderation .

someone called me someone called me froman or froman from the seventy show I thought that was funny the the amount of trash talking in rogan youtube comments its next level IT is me is IT is the wild wild west in in terms of the comments section on youtube .

yeah um a .

bunch of you would .

just check out why do you call IT alex .

Jones because it's just a taxi short potest and they look similar but I mean he looks like Alice Jones I started lifting way. It's actually, you know they are both the same. And twenty five years ago.

doing stand up by a photo with him at the club was like a small club in sanford is go and we hung out with them afterwards. He was just like a nobody back in the day. I can stand up, get right now. He's media start.

We have to go back pretty far for you were gone to be a nobody. I mean, he had A T, V show for .

a long time .

and work for a fact .

of comment. But you do survivor or one of those, like, I think and then the u fc, I mean, this guy has got and like, we grew up U.

F C.

yeah. Well, I mean, I think he got the u. Fc at a fear factor and being a usc fighter in a comedian. And there is like a famous story where, like, denner White was pursuing him and he was like that, or know.

And then dena White, like, i'll send a plane for you, could bring your friends, I think I get final, do what he did IT for free. And then dena White pursuit him heavily to become the voice of the u fc. And obviously it's grown tremendously and its worth billions of dollars. Okay.

so how was OpenAI worth one hundred and fifty billion dollars? Can anyone apart to the topic, should we make the bulcke in the bill case right?

Opening A I, as we were just joking in the opening segment, is trying to convert into a four profit benefit corporation. That's A B corp, which this means, I explain b corlaer said, is .

reportedly.

I thought A B, no, it's a .

corporation, is A C corporation variant that is not a fit, but the board of director sex is required not only to be a fiduciary for all shareholders, but also for the stated mission of the company. That's my understanding of A B corp of my right .

premark external statelily. Yeah so like the environmental society or whatever, but IT from all other kind of legal tax factor is is the same as a ecore.

And it's a way too, I guess, signal to investors, the market employees that you care about something more than just profit. So famous most famous big corp, I think, is toms. Is that the shoe company times that's a famous be or somebody will look at up here that falls into category.

So four profit with a mission raiders has cited anonymous sources close to the company that the plan is still being hashed out with lawyers and shareholders and the timing is uncertain. But what's being discussed is that the uh nonprofit will continue to exist as hey, minority shareholders in the new company. How much of a minority shareholder there guess is, uh the devils in the detail there to the only one percent or forty nine percent? The uh very much discuss freeburg hundred x profit cap for investors will be removed.

That means investors like the node friend of the pod and read hofman also friend of the pod, could see a hundred x turn into a thousand six or more according to the blob of report. And what is gonna his equity? Finally, seven percent.

That would put him at around ten point five billion. If this is all true, and opening eye could be valued as high as a hundred fifty billion dollars will get into all the chance inst. But let's start with your question freeburg. And since you asked IT on a booming effect, you make the bulcke for one hundred fifty dollar, one hundred fifty billion dollar valuation.

The bull case would be that the mode in the business with respective model performance and infrastructure gets extended with the large amount capital that they are raising. They aggressively deployed IT.

They are very strategic and tactical with respective or how they deployed that infrastructure to continue to improve model performance and as a result, continue to extend their vantage in both consumer enterprise applications, the A P I tools and so on that they offer. And so they can maintain uh both kind of model and application performance leads that they have today across the board. I would say like the the one model, uh, the voice application sora has not been released publicly.

But if IT does and that looks like what it's been demo to be, they'd certainly ahead the pack. So there's a lot of aspect of of open a eye today that kind of makes them a leader. And if they can deploy infrastructure to maintain that lead and not like google, microsoft, amazon, others catch up, then their ability to use that capital wisely keeps them ahead. And ultimately as well know there's a multi trillion dollar market to capture here, making lots of vertical of lots of applications, lots of products, so they could become A A true kind of global player here, plus the extension into computing, which i'm excited to talk about later when we get into .

the computers sex, here's a chart of open areas revenue growth that has been piecemeal together from various sources at various times. But you'll see here they are reportedly as of june of twenty and twenty four and a three point four billion dollar run rate for the year after hitting two billion in twenty three, one point three billion in october of twenty three.

And then back in twenty twenty two is reported they only had twenty eight million in revenue. So there's a pretty, pretty hot a pretty, a pretty big streaker in terms of revenue growth that would put IT at fifty times top line revenue, one hundred fifty billion evaluation. You want to give us the barcas .

maybe or the book case? Well, so the whisper numbers I heard was that their revenue run right for the year and the six billion range, which is a little higher than that. So you're right, if it's really more like three point for this valuation is about fifty times current revenue, but if it's more like five billion, then it's only thirty times.

And if it's growing one hundred percent year over year, it's only fifteen times next year. So depending what the numbers actually are, one hundred and fifty billion evaluation could be warranted. I don't think fifteen times ford arr is high valuation for a company that has this kind of strategic opportunity.

I think IT all comes down to the durability of its comparable advantage. I think there's no question that open a eye is the leader of the pack. IT has the most at my say I models, has got best developing ecosystem, the best that keeps rolling out new products.

And the question is just how durable that advantages is. A really emote. Any of this, for example, Better just announced lama three point two, which can do voice.

And this is roughly at the same time that OpenAI just release its voice API. So the open source ecosystem is kind of hot on OpenAI heels. The large companies of google, microsoft so forth, they are hot their heels too, although IT seems like they're further behind where meet is.

And the question is just can open a eye making its league, can consolidate its league, can to develop some motes. If so, it's on track to be the next trillion dollar big tech company. But if not, IT could be eroded and you could see the value OpenAI get get commoditized. And we will look back on IT as kind of a caution deal.

okay? You not do us a favor here. If there is a bare case.

what is that? Okay, let's still end the bare case.

Yes, start of them asking, please.

So one would just beyond the fundamental technology itself. And I think the version of that story would go that the underlying frameworks .

that people are using .

to make these models great is well described in available in open source. On top of that, there are at least two viable open source models that are as good or Better at any point in time than open a eye. So what that would mean is that.

The value of those models, the economic value basically goes to zero and its a consumer surplus for the people that use IT. So that's very hard theoretically to modernize. I think the second part of the bare case would be that specifically matter becomes much more aggressive in inserting meta AI into all of the critical apps that they control because those apps really are the front door to billions of people on a daily basis.

So that would mean what's up? Instagram, messenger, the facebook APP and threads gets rejected in a way where instead of leaving that application to go to a ChatGPT like up, you would just stay in the APP. And then the companion to that would be that google also does the same thing with their version in front of search.

So those to be big front doors to the internet become much more aggressive in giving you a reason to not have to go to ChatGPT because, a, their answers are just as good and b, they're right there in a few less clicks for you. Yeah and that would be the that would be the second piece. The third piece is that all of these models basically run out of viable data to differentiate themselves.

And IT basically becomes a race around synthetic information and synthetic data, which is a host problem. Meaning if you're gonna invent synthetic data, you're gonna have to spend money to do IT. And the large companies 的 facebook， microsoft, amazon, google, apple have effectively infinite money compared to any start up.

And in the fourth, which is the most critical one, is what does the human capital thing tell you about what's going on? IT reads a little bit like a talent villa. I have not in my time in silicon valley ever seen a company that's supposedly on such a straight line to a rocket ship have so much high level turn. And I but I have also never seen a company have this much liquidity.

And so how are people deciding to leave if they think it's going to be a trillion dollar company? And why, when things are just starting to cook, would you leave if you are technically enamored with what you're building? So if you had to construct the bear case, I think those would be the four things open source front of our competition, the move to synthetic data and all of the executive turnover would be sort of why you would say maybe there's a fire where there's all the smoke.

okay. I think this is very well put. And I have been using ChatGPT, and claude and gemini exclusively stopped using google search, and I also stopped sex, asking people on my team to do stuff before I S ChatGPT to do IT.

Specifically freeburg the o one version. And the o one version is distinctly different. Have you gentlemen been using o one like on a daily basis? okay. So we can have a really interesting conversation here. I did something on my other podcast.

This we can start up. I'll show you right now that was crazy yesterday. The first real chain of thought production system, yes, that I think we've seen .

are using a one preview or o one mini.

Um I am using o one preview. Now let me show you what I did here just at the audience can level set here. If you're not watching us, go to youtube and type in all and and and you can you can watch as we do video here.

So I was analyzing, I just some early stage deals and captors les and I put in here, hey, I started to just raise some money at this valuation. Here's what the friends and family invested, the accelerator, the sea investor acceptor, in other words, like the history, the investment history in a company, what oh one does distinctly differently than the previous versions. And the previous version, I felt, was three to six months ahead of competitors.

This is a year ahead of competitors. And so here from off, if you look, IT, said I thought for seventy seven seconds. And if you click the down arrow sacks, what you'll see is IT gives you an idea of what is rational is for interpreting, and what secondary queries is doing in order.

Called chain. This is called chain of thought. And this is the underlying mega model that sits on top of the l alarms.

And the mega model, effectively, the chain N I thought approach is the model asked itself the question, how should I answer this question? right? And then IT comes up with an answer, and then IT says, now based on that, what are the steps I should take to answer the question? So the model keeps asking itself questions related to the structure of the question that you asked.

And then IT comes up with a series of steps that you can then call the LLM to do to fill in the blanks, link them all together and come up with the answer. It's the same way that a human train of thought works. And IT really is the the kind of ultimate evolution of what a lot of people have said these systems need to become, which is a much more color intuit approach to answering questions rather than just predictive text based on a single statement you made. And that is changing the game, and everyone is going to chase this and follow this. IT is the new paradigm for for how these A I uh kind of systems will work.

And by the way, what this did was what prompt engineers were doing or prompt engineering websites we're doing, which was trying to help you construct question. And so if you look to this one, IT says listing disparately all compiler capable with investment evaluation, building the capable, accessing the share evaluation, breaking down otherness, breaking dow ownership exit, evaluating the terms, and then IT checks its work a bit IT waites investment options.

And you can see this is a, this is fired off like two dozen different queries to, as fiber correctly pointed out, you build this chain and IT got incredible answers. Explain the farmers. So it's thinking about what your next question would be.

And this, when I share this with my team, IT was like a super game changer. fact. You had some dots here. Well, yeah, I mean.

this is pretty impressive. And just to build on what freeburg was saying about chain of thought, where this all leads is to agents where you can actually tell the AI to do work for you. You give IT an objective, IT can break the objective down into task, and then IT can work each of those tasks.

And OpenAI, at a recent meeting with investors, said that PH c level reasoning was next on its road map. And then agents weren't far behind that. They've now released the at least the preview of the P H E level reasoning with this old one model. So I think we can expect announcement pretty soon about agents .

yeah and so and if you think .

about if you think about business value, know we think a lot about this is like where's the sas opportunities and all of this that suffers the service opportunity is going to be an agents. I think we will ultimately look back on these sort of chat models as a little bit of a party trick compared to what agents are gna do in the workplace, if you've ever been to the call center or an Operation center, there also called service factories.

It's assembly lines of people doing very complicated knowledge work. But ultimately, you can unravel exactly what the chain is. There are the chain of thought that goes into their decisions. It's it's very complicated and that's why you have to have humans doing IT. But you could imagine that once system and integrators or or enterprise systems go into these places, go into these companies, they integrate the data and then they map out the workflow, you could replace a lot of these steps in the workplace with agents.

Yeah, by the way, it's not just it's not just call centers. I had a conversation with among the board of the company with the C O. The other day and he was like, well, we're gna hire an analyst that's going to sit between our kind of retail sales Operations and do the and you know figure out what's working to drive marketing decisions.

And unlike no, you're not like I I really think that, that would be a mistake because today you can use a one and describe I just feed at the data and describe the analysis you want to get out of that data and with in a few minutes. And i've now done this probably a dozen times in the last week with different projects internally at my company. IT gives you the entire answer that an analyst would have taken days yeah put together for you.

And if you think about what an analyst job has been historically, they take data and then they manipulated. And the big evolution in software over the last decade and a half has been tools that give that analysts verage to do that data manipulation more quickly like tables and you know are and all sorts of different tool kids that out there. But now you don't even need the analyst because the analyst is the chain of thought.

It's the prompting from the model, and it's completely going to change how not college work is done. Everyone that owns a function no longer needs an analyst. The analyst is the model that sitting on the computer in front of you right now, you tell me what you want and not days later but minutes later you get your answer is completely revolutionary in um uh ad hawk uh knowledge work as well as kind of this repetitive structure.

Knowledge is such a good free berg, the ad hawk piece of IT. When we're processing twenty thousand applications for funding a year, we do a hundred plus meetings a week. The analysts on our team are now putting in the trans rights um and key questions about markets.

And they are getting so smart, so fast that you know when somebody comes to them with a marketplace in diamonds that are understanding of the diamond marketplace, become so Richard, so fast that we can evalu companies faster than we're also seeing. Uh cham, uh before we call our lawyers, when we have a legal question about a docking and we start putting in, let's say, the standard note template or the standard safe template we put in the new one. And there's a really cool project by google called notebook LLM.

We can put in multiple documents and you can start asking questions. So imagine you take every single legal documents, sex, that ymar had when you had chef as an investor. Much of this on the board, and you could started asking questions about the documents.

And we have had people make changes to these arguments, and he immediately finds them, explains them. And so everybody's just getting so goddam smart, so fast to using these tools that I insisted that every person on the team, when they hit control tab IT, opens a ChatGPT four window in a one can. We burned out our credits immediately like IT stopped us and said, you, you, you, you have to stop using IT for the rest of the month to of your us on this.

We're seeing IT in real time in eighty ninety. But i'll tell you is what sax said is totally right. There's so many companies but have very complicated processes that are a combination of well trained and well meaning people and bad software.

And what I mean by bad software is that some other third party came in, listen to what your business process was, and then wrote this clunky deterministic code, usually on top of some system of record charge, due tens or hundreds of millions of dollars for, and then left. And we will support IT only if you keep paying them millions of dollars year. That whole thing is so nuts because the ability for people to do work, I think, has been very much constrained.

And it's constrained by people trying to do the right thing using really, really terrible software. And all of that will go away. The radical idea that I would put out there, I think that systems of record no longer exist because they don't need to. And the reason is because all you have is data and you have a high planet.

And just explain to people what system of record is to. so.

So inside of the company, you have a handful of systems that people would say are the single source of truth. There are the things that are used for reporting compliance. An example would be for your general letter. So to next to record your revenues, you would use next sweet or you'd use oracle gl or you'd use work day financial, then you'd have a different system of record for all of your revenue generating activity.

So who are all of the people you sell to? How our sales going? What is the pipeline? Because there's companies like sales force car C R M, then there is a system of record for all the employees that work for you, all the benefits they have.

What is this is H R I S. So the point is that the software economy over the last twenty years. And this is trillions of dollars of market cap and hundreds of billions of revenue had been built on this premise that we will create the system of record.

You will build apps on top of the system of record and the knowledge workers will come in, and that's how they will get work done. And I think that sex is right. This totally flip side on its head.

Instead, what will happen is people will provision in agent and roughly direct what they want the outcome to be. And they'll be process independent. They won't care how they do that.

They just want the answer. So I think two things happen. The obvious thing that happens in that world is systems of record lose a grip on the volt that they had. In terms of the data that runs a company, you don't necessarily need IT within the same reliance and privacy that you did five and ten years ago. That'll have an impact to the software economy. And the second thing that I think is even more important than that is that in the atomic size of companies changes because each company will get much more leverage from using software and few people versus lots of people with a few pieces of software. And so that inversion, I think, creates tremendous potential for Operating leverage.

All right, your thought sex, you Operate in the same space. H with system of records and investing in these type of companies give you your take.

Well, it's interesting. We are having a version. This conversation last week on the pod and I started getting text from benny office. He is listening to IT then oh, he he called me and I think he got a little bit triggered by the idea that system was a record like self force are going to be obsolete in this new AI era.

And he made a very compelling case to me about why that would not happen, which is, yeah, first more, I think AI models are predictive. I mean, the end of the day, they're predicting the next set of tax and so forth. And when IT comes to like your employee list or your customer list, you just want have a source of truth.

You don't want you to be ninety actually. You just want to be one hundred person actually. You want to know if the federal government ask you for the tax I D numbers of your employees, you won't able to give IT to if wall street analyst asked you for your customer list and what the gap revenue is, you just not able to provide that.

You don't want A I model trigger IT out, so you're still gona need a smooth record. Furthermore, he made the point that you still need database. You still need enterprise security for your dealing with enterprises.

You still need compliance. You still didn't sharing models. There's all these aspect, all these things that have been built on top of the database access companies been doing for twenty five years.

And then the final point that I think is compelling is that enterprise customers don't want to DIY IT, right? They don't want have to figure how to put this together and you can't just hand them an LLM and say, here you go, there's a lot of work that is needed in order to make these malls productive. And so at a minimum, you're going to need system and integrators and consults to come in there, connect on, disconnect all the enterprise data to these models, map the workflows .

you have to do that. Now how's that different from how this this clunky software. So today, I mean, look, I I wanna take away from the quality of the company that mark is built and what he's done for the cloud economy. So let's just put that aside. But I wish this is what we could have actually all been on stage and talked about.

I told him when he .

was at the summer. I said because I disagree with basically every premise of those three things. Number one, systems integrations exist today to build apps on top of these things.

Why do you think you have companies like viva? How can a twenty billion dollar plus company get built on top of sales force? It's because IT doesn't do what it's meant to do. That's why why some opportunities .

absorb are a great way to allow people to build on your platform, cover those niche cases.

The point i'm trying to make is that no different than .

the economy that is just gona .

transform .

to different groups of people.

Number one issue here.

come on the pod and discuss whether A I makes us obsolete a lot. You are asking that question.

Let's talk about the next the summer.

Can you talk about his to be first OK? Let's get back to focus on.

Let's get focus. Everybody.

I love you work with company to dream force.

but I do have have the point. The second point is that when you have agents, I think that we are over rested. Ming, what a system of record.

David, what you talked about is actually just an encrypted file or is a bunch of rose in some database or its in some data lake somewhere? You don't need to spend tens or hundreds of millions of dollars to wrap your revenue in something that says it's a system of record. You don't need that actually.

You can just pipe that stuff directly from stripe into snowflake and you can just transform IT and do what you will with IT and then report IT. You could do that today is just that doesn't same point through state dinners and golf founding and all this stuff we've sold. Cio s this idea that you need to wrap IT in something called the system of record. And all i'm saying is, when you confront the total cost of that first is what the alternative that is clearly going to happen in the next five or ten years, irrespective of whether any of us build IT or not. IT will not be able not able to .

justify probably also an aspect of this that we can't predict what is going to work with respected data structure. So right now all of um all of the the tooling for A I is on the front end and we haven't yet unleased A I on the packet, which is if you told the A I here's all the data in gest. I'm going to be doing from all these different points in my business.

Figure out what you want to do with all that data. The A I will eventually come up with its own data structure and data system, right? And so that's nothing like what we have today in the same vein that we don't understand how the translation works in in, in. We a lot of the data structure and data architecture we won't understand, right? Because it's going to be obviously ted by the model driving the the development.

There are open source agented frameworks that already do freeburg .

what you're saying that.

So it's not true that it's not been done. It's already in plant. Give you an example of one like mechanical orchard, they'll go into the most nearly st of environments. And what they will do is they will launch these agents that observe IT, sort of what I told you guys before the I O stream of these apps, and then reconstruct everything in the middle automatically.

I don't understand why we think that there's a world where customer quality and N P S would not go sky high for a company that has some old legacy for train system. And now they can just pay you know mechanical orchard a few million boxes. They'll just replace IT in a matter of months. It's going to happen.

Yeah, that's the very interesting piece for me. And you know watching startups you working on this, the A I first ones, I think we're going to come to IT with a totally different cost structure to the idea of paying for seats. And I mean.

some of these seats are five you nailed a year ago when you were like old, you mention some company that had like flat thing at first. By the way, when you said that, I thought this is not. But you're right. IT actually makes a lot of sense because if you have a fixed group of people who can use this tooling to basically effectively be as productive as a company that's ten times as big as you, you can afford to flat Price your software because you can just work backwards from what margin structure you want, and it's still meaningfully cheaper than any other alternative.

A lot of startups now are doing consumption based pricing. So they're saying you know how many um how many sales calls are you doing? How many are we analyzing as opposed to how many cells executives do you have? Because when you have agents, as we're talking about, those agents are going to do a lot of the work.

So we're going to see the number of people working, our companies become fixed. And I think the static team size that we're seeing at a lot of large companies is only going to continue. It's going to be down into the right.

And if you think you're going to a get a hyping job at a big tech company and you have to beat the agent, you're gonna to beat the misha, who has five agents working for them. I think this is going to be a completely different world cha. I I want to give back to OpenAI with a couple of the pieces.

So let's rato. It's the next thing. Yes, please, that's where for you.

Well, so look, I think that on the whole, I agree with spending off here that there is more net new opportunity for A I companies, whether they be startups or know existing big companies like sales force that are trying to do AI. Then there is disruption. I think there will be some disruption is very hard for us to see exactly what a is going to look like in five or ten years.

So I don't want to discount the possibility that there will be some disruption of existing players. But I think on the whole, there's more net new opportunity. For example, the most highly valued public software company right now in terms of A R multiple is pantier.

And I think that's largely because the market perceives pantier having a big AI opportunity. What is pilling tee's approach? The first thing palin teer does when they go into a customer is they integrate with all of its systems and they're dealing with the large enterprises, they're dealing with the government, the panic gon, department of defense.

The first thing they do is go in and integrate with all of these legacy systems. And they collect all of the data in one place they call IT, creating a digital twin. And once all the data in one place with the right permissions and safeguards, now analysts can start working IT.

And that was the history of value proposition. But in addition, A, I can now start working that problem. So anything that the analysts could work now AI is going to be able to work.

And so there are in an ideal position to master these new AI workflows. So what is the point i'm making is just that you can just throw an LLM at these large enterprises. You have to go in there and integrate with the existing system. It's not about ripping authentic c systems because this is a lot of .

headaches that nobody needs. It's generally an easier approaches to you're going to renegotiate, going to spend a billion .

dollars again five years from now. If this doesn't seem very likely, negotiations suspect pent .

tears go to market when they start to release scale. It'll be able to under Price a bunch of these other alternatives. And if so, I think that when you look at the impacts and pricing that all of these open source and close source model companies have now introduced in terms to do the Price per token, what we've seen is, is just a massive step function law, right? So IT is incredibly deflationary.

So the things that sit on top are going to get Prices as a function of that of that cost, which means IT will be, in order of magnetic, cheaper than the stuff that IT replaces, which means that a company would almost have to purpose, sly, want to keep paying tens of millions of dollars when they don't have to. They would need to make that as an explicit decision. And I think that very few companies will be in a position to be that caviar in five and ten years. So you're either going na rebate the revenues of a bunch of these existing deterministic companies or are you going to create an entire economy of new ones that have a fraction of the revenues today, but a very different profitability profile. I just think .

that I think we're dealing with when ever you're dealing with a disruption as bigger this current one, I think it's always tempting to think in terms of the existing pie getting disrupted and drunk as opposed to the pie getting so big with new use cases that on the whole, the ecosystem benefits.

No, no, I agree that.

No.

I, I, I agree with that. My my only point is that the pie can get bigger while the slices get much, much smaller.

Well, I right between the two of you, I think is um the truth because what's happening is if you look at investing, it's very hard to get into this late stage companies because they don't need as much capital because you your point him off. They when they do hit profitability with ten or twenty people, the revenue per employee is going way up.

If you look at google, uber, airbnb and facebook, meta, they have the same number or less employees and they did three years ago, but they're all growing in that twenty to thirty percent a year, which means in but two to three years each of those companies has doubled revenue, poor employee. So that concept of more efficiency, and then that trickles down sex to the start of investing space, where you and I are am a proceed see investor. You are seed series a investor. If you don't get in, in those three or four rounds, I think it's going to be really expensive and the companies are not going to need as much money downstream.

Speaking of investing in these companies, we never close the loop on the whole OpenAI think what did we think of the fact that they're completely changing the structure of this company? They're changing into a corporation from the non profit and sam now getting .

a ten million dollars stock.

Package.

he's not any for the money. He has health insurance, sex, never sure. Hold the clip of nick. The .

lip .

is congress gress.

You make a lot of money, do you? I make, no, I paid enough health and I could not open. I M really that's interesting.

You need a layer. I need a way.

You need a lawyer or an agent.

I am doing this because I love IT.

Is the greatest like if you don't believe him and this can ask you a question in there, are sex you doing this venture capital? We put money in the startups because you love IT because .

you're looking to get another home .

in coastal city and put more in that plan. And an for people of the summer state .

of this simply no lousianner that I from izan is a very smart guy, actually was a lot of sort of common folk wisdom is very funny, is very funny. If you listen to him, he knows how to slice and dice.

You might need to get yourself a one of them fancy agents from holly's wood or an electro ney from the Wilson son sydney corporation to reinvent your contracts, son, because you're were a lot more from what I can gather in your performance today than just some simple health care and A I hope you took the blue cross, blue shield.

I would like to Sunny, serious observation.

Let's go. Please get us back on track.

I think the first is that there is going to be a lot of people that are looking at the architecture of this conversion because if IT passes muster, everybody should. Do you think about this model? Let's just say that you're in a market and you start as an on profit.

What that really means is you pain no income tax. So for a long time, you put out a little bit of the percentage of whatever you earn, but you can now outspend and outcompete all of your competence. And then once you win, you flip to a corporation that's a great hack on the tax code.

and you let the donators get first bite of the apple if you do convert because remember of the node and hofman got all their shares on the conversion.

The other way will also work as well because there's no there's nothing that says you can go in the other direction. So let's assume that you're already a for profit company, but you're in a space with a bunch of competitors. Can you just do this conversion in reverse, become a nonprofit again? You pay no income tax.

So now you are economically advantaged relative to your competitors. And then when they whether and die or you can now spend them, you flip back to a four profit again. I think the the point is that there's a lot of people that we're going to watch this closely. And if it's legal and it's a loud I I just don't understand why everybody wouldn't do this.

Yeah I mean as well. And I mean the .

second thing, which is just more like. Cultural observation is that you brought up in my comment you guys yesterday, i'll just make the comment today. It's a little bit is hardening to see a situation where elan built something absolutely incredible to fight every expectation and then had the justice system take fifty five billion dollars away from him.

His payment packager referring .

to attest payment package, the options over. And then on the other side, sams going going to pull something like this off, definitely pushing the boundaries, and he's going to make ten billion. And I just think when you put those two things in contrast, that's not how the system should probably work, I think is what most people .

would say free. Are you been required here? Any thoughts on transaction, the nonprofit to four profit?

If you were looking at that in what you are doing, do you see a way that a hello could take a nonprofit status, raise a bunch of money through donations for virtuous work and license so s patterns to your four profit IT? Would that be advantages to you? And do you think .

I could become absolutely zero idea? I have no idea what they're doing. I don't know how they're converting a non profit for profit.

One of us have the details on this. This there may be significant tax implications payments they need to make. I don't think any of us, no, I certainly don't.

I don't know if there is actually a real benefit here. If there is, i'm sure ever to do IT. No one's doing IT. So it's probably a reason why it's difficult. I don't know.

spend on a couple of times see the musical foundation did that? We talk about that in a previous episode. It's actually you want to rap this up here on the corporate structure and any final lots. I mean, you won't put in fifty million. I think he gets the same as sam. Don't you think you should just chip off seven percent for you on and not that you one needs the money where is asking? But i'm just wondering why you on doesn't get the seven percent and get or you know if you .

put in fifty, didn't put in fifty million.

fifty nine is the report right now profit? Yeah half man put in ten.

You like I said on a previous show, that this organizational chart of open eye was radically complicated, and they should go clean IT up. They should open up the books and straight everyone out. And I also said that as part of that, they could give sam altman a CEO option grant and they should also give elon some fair compensation for being the sea investor put in the first thirty million dollars and cofounder.

And what you're seeing is what they're kind to do and that they're opening up the books, they're straightening out the corporate structure they're giving. Sam has option grant, but they anything for elon. And i'm not saying this as elan's friend.

I'm just saying that it's not really fair to basically go fix the original situation. You're making IT into a four profit. You're giving everyone shares, but the guy who puts in the original sea capable doesn't get anything that's ridiculous.

And you know what they are basically saying to elon is if you don't like, you just do us. I mean, that's basically what they are doing. And I said that they should go clean this up, but they should make IT right with everybody.

So how do you not make IT right with? Elon haven't talked about this, but he reacted on x saying, this is really wrong. IT appeared to be a surprise to have my doud.

He knew this was coming. So the company apparently made no effort to make things right with him. And I think that that is a bit ridiculous.

If you're going to clean this stop, if you're going to change the original purpose of this organization to being a standard for profit company where CEO previously said he was going to get in compensations, now getting ten billion dollars of compensation, how do you do that? And then not cleaned up for the cofounder, put in the first fifty million dollars ah that doesn't make sense to me. And you know when read was on our pod, he he said, well, I loans rich enough well, that that's not a principle excuse.

I mean, does the node ever act that way? Does read ever act that way? Did they ever say, well, you know, you don't need to do it's fair for me because i'm ready, rich. That's that's not a principle. The answer.

the argument that I heard was that elon was given the opportunity to invest along with read and he he declined to participate in the four profit investing side that everyone else participating gut.

And I think it's the best argument the company has. But let's think about that argument. Maybe elon was busy that week.

Maybe elan already felt like he had put all the money that he had allocated or something like this into IT because he put IT in a fifty million dollar check where where as we put intent, we don't know what elon was thinking at that time. Maybe there was a crisis at tesla in which is really busy. That point is Ellen shouldn't have been obligated to put in more money into this venture.

The fact the matter is the reactor, the whole venture, even on an expectation when he put in the fifty million that this would be a nonprofit and stay and on profit. And they're changing that. And if they change IT, they have to make things right with them.

IT doesn't really matter whether he had A A subsequent opportunity to invest. He wasn't obligated to to make that investment. What he had an expectation of is that his fifty million dollars to be used for a philanthropic purpose, and clearly, and has not been yeah .

an infair nest of a node. He bought that incredible beach fund property and donated IT to the public trust that we can all serve and have our halloween party. There is a good thank you note for giving us that incredible beach.

I want to talk to you guys about interfaces that came up, show off in your head winds, or your four pack of reasons that, you know, open the eye when you still men. The barcas could have chAllenges. Obviously, we're seeing that.

And IT is emerging that meta is working on some A R glasses that are really impressive. Additionally, I ve installed IOS eighteen, which is apple intelligence that works on fifteen phones and sixteen phones. Eighteen is the IOS.

Did any of you install the beta IOS continent? And new theory, it's pretty clear with this new one that you could be able to talk to theory as an LLM like you do in ChatGPT mode, which I think means they will not make themselves dependent on ChatGPT and they will siphon off half the searches that would have gone to ChatGPT. So I see that as a serious .

there is not very good, good. And you know this because when you are driving .

me airport test.

that you he tried to, he tries to execute this joke. Where is like, hey, sii mah, poli hop. Tia, a message. And IT was a very off color message, icy joke. And then it's like, okay, great sending Linda.

I would have been really damaging .

is not very good.

Jason is very good. But I will will say is there are features of IT where if you squeeze IT, you will see that theory is going to be conversational. So when I was talking to IT with music and know you, you can have a conversation with that and do math like you can do with the ChatGPT version.

And you have microsoft doing that with their copilot. And now meet is doing at the top of each one. So everybody is going to try to intercept the queries and the voice interface.

So ChatGPT four is now up against meta theory, my apple and microsoft. For that face, it's going to be chAllenging. But let's talk about this metal glass.

This year, meta showed off the A R glasses that nickel will pull up right now. These aren't goggles. Goggles look like ski goggles.

That's what apple is doing with their vision pro. Uh, or when you see the meta quest, you know how those work. Those are VR with cameras that will create a version of the world.

These are actual chunky sunglasses, like the ones I was wearing earlier when I was doing the bit. So these let you Operate in the real world and are supposedly extremely expensive. They made a thousand prototypes. They were learning a bunch of influencers and folks like a garage inner truck, uh, use them and they're not ready for prime time. But the way they work free berg, is there's a respite that will track your fingers in your wrist, move and see you could be in a conversation like we are here on the pod and below the deaths, you could be moving your arms and hand around to be doing replies to other incoming messages or whatever is what do you think of this A R vision of the world and matter making this progress?

Well, I think IT is in a lot the the AI discussion because I I think we're really witnessing the big shift from and the big transition in computing, probably the bigger transition into mobile. Know we moved from main frames to dust top computers. Everyone had kind of this computer on their dust top that used a mouse and keyboard to control IT to mobile, where you have a keyboard and clicking and touching on the screen to do things on IT.

And now to what I would call this kind of ambient computing method. And you know, I think the big difference is control in response. In directed computing, you're kind of telling the computer what to do. You're controlling IT. You're using your mouse or your keyboard to to go to this website to you type in a website address, then you click on the thing that you wanna click on and you can keep doing a series of work to get the computer to go access the information that you ultimately want to achieve your objective. But with the ambient computing, you can more kind of clearly state your objective without this kind of directive process.

You can say, hey, I want to say, I want to have dinner in new york next thursday at the admissions and star restaurant at five thirty book me something and it's time and I think that there are kind of five core things that are needed for this to work um both in control in response its voice control, just your control and ye control or kind of the control pieces that replys you know mice and clicking and touching and keyboards and then response is audio and kind of integrated visual, which is the idea of the goggles, a voice control works. Have you guys use the open a voice control system lately? I mean, that is really incredible.

I had my earphones in, and I was like doing this exercise. I've trying to learn something. So I told open eye to start quizzing me anything.

And I just did a thirty minute at walk. And while I was walking, IT was asking me quiz questions, and I would answer, tell me right wrong. IT was really this incredible dialogue experience.

So I think the voice controls there, I don't know if you guys have used dapple vision pro, but just your control is here today. You can do single finger movements with apple vision pro IT triggers actions. And ee control is incredible.

You look at the letters you want to have kind of spelled out. You look at the thing you want to activate that does IT. So all of the control systems for the amenities computing are there.

And then the A I enables this kind of audio respond to IT speaks to you. And the big breakthrough that's needed that I don't think we're quite there yet, but maybe zc is highlighting that we're almost there in an apple vision pro field. S think it's almost they're accepted to be in bulky and expensive, is in a great visual where the ambient visual interface is always there and you can kind of engage IT.

So there is this big change. I don't think that mobile handsets are gona be around in ten years. I don't think we onna have this like phone in our pocket that were like pressing button on and touching and telling IT we're on the browser to go to the browser interface is gona go away. I think so much of how computing is done, how much how we integrate with data in the world and how the computer ultimately fetches that data does up with IT for us. Is onna completely change to the ambition? Del, so i'm i'm pretty excited about the evolution, but I think that what we're seeing with zc, what we saw with apple vision pro and all of the opening item s the all kind of converge on this very incredible shift in computing um that will kind of become this ambient system that exists everywhere, all the time. And I know folks have kind of mentioned this in the past, but I think we're really seeing IT kind of all come together now .

with these five key things too much.

Any thoughts on facebooks progress with A R and how that might impact computing and interfaces went paired with language models.

I think David is right that there's something that's going to be totally new and unexpected. So I agree with that part of what free burke says. I am still not sure that glasses are the perfect form factor to be ubiquity.

When you look at a phone, a phone makes complete sense for literally everybody, right? Men, women, all Young, every race, every country of the world is such a ubiquitous obvious form factor. But the thing is like that the initial form factor was so different than what IT replaced, even if he looked at like flip phones versus that first generation iphone.

So I I do think we would be right that there's like this new way of interacting that is ready to explode onto the scene. And I think that these guys have done a really good job with these classes. I mean, like I given a lot of credit for sticking with IT and iterating through IT and getting IT to display IT looks meaningful ly Better than the vision pro, to be totally honest. But i'm still not convinced that we've explore the best of our creativity in terms of the devices that we wanted use with these A I models.

You need some visual interface. I think the question is where's the visual interface is in is in the wall. I mean, well, when you're asking, like I want to watch cheap on rogan, I don't just want to hear. I want to see like when I want to visualize stuff, I want to visualize IT, I want to look at the food on buying online. I want to look at pictures of the .

restaurant i'm going. But how much of that time when you say those things, are you not near some screen that you can just project in broadcast?

I don't I think I think maybe I S if .

the use cases i'm walking in the park and I need to watch T, V at the same time, I don't think that's a real use.

I I think you're on this one wrong. Cheap because I saw this revolution in japan maybe twenty years ago. They got obsessed with augmented reality. They were tonne startups right as they started getting to the mobile phones. And the use cases were really very compelling, and we're starting to see them now in education.

And when you're at dinner with a bunch friends, how often does picking up your phone and you know looking at a message to sturb the flow will people will have glasses on, they'll be going for walks, they'll be driving, they'll have dinner party, they'll with their kids and you'll have something on like focus mode, you know, whatever the equivalent is in apple, and a message will come in from your spouse or from your child, but you won't have to take your phone out of your pocket. And I think once these things way a lot less, you're going to have four different ways to interact with your computer, in your pocket, your phone, your watch, your airports, whatever you have, a new ears and the glasses. And I bet you glasses are gonna like the third of the tasks you do. I mean, what is the point of taking out your phone and watching the uber come to you, but seeing that little strip that tells the ubs twenty minutes away, fifty minutes away or what the gate number is.

I don't that anxiety.

Well, I know of it's anxiety, but I just think it's ease of use.

Minutes, ten minutes, the different.

I think it's up. I think taking your phone out of your .

pocket times those useless notifications, the whole thing is the train yourself to realize it'll come when IT comes.

okay. Sac, you have any thoughts on this, uh, impressive demo or the demo that people who have seen upset is pretty, pretty dark compelling?

I think IT IT does look pretty impressive. I mean, you can wear these metal iron glasses around and look like a human. I mean, you might look like u gene levy, but you'll still look like, said my Normal person, whereas you can't wear the apple vision pro. I mean.

you can't wear that around, but they look good, you know.

nick, can you please your gene levy?

So I mean, I look like a major advancement certainly compared to apple vision pro. The apple vision anymore at those things came in when.

IT seems to me that who's that matter is executing extremely well. I mean, you have the very successful cost cutting with wall street. Liked zc published that letter, which I give them credit for regretting the censorship that matter did, which was at the best of the deep state.

No.

they made huge advancements in A I I don't think they were initially on the cutting that, but they're caught up and now they're .

leading .

the open door yeah with lama three point two and now IT seems to me that they're ahead on augment reality ever since that grew out. The here never cut the here. It's like, Samson, I mean.

it's like based .

suck is the best. I mean, I I I want to be clear.

I think these glasses are are going to be successful. My only combat is that I think that when you look back twenty five and thirty years from now and say that was the killer A I device, I don't think it's gonna like something we know today. That's my only point.

And maybe it's gonna this thing that sam altman and john y. Eve are baking up that supposed to be this A I infused iphone killer? Maybe it's that thing. I doubt that will be a pair of glasses or a phone or a pin if you .

think about like so so take the constraints on, I don't need a keyboard because not going na be tightening stuff. I don't need a Normal browder. In your face you could see a device come out that's almost like smaller than the palm of your hand that gives you enough of the visuals and all IT is is a screen which maybe two button on the side, and it's all audio driven.

You put a headset and and you're basically just talking or using just r or looking at IT to kind of described where you want things to go. And I can create entirely new computing face because A I does all of these incredible things with predictive text, with just your control, with eye control and with audio control. And then I can just give you what you want on a screen and all you're getting as a simple interface such you out, you maybe right, IT might be a big watch, your hand helping that much smaller than an iphone. And just all IT is as a screen with nothing.

I really resonate when you talk about voice only because I think it's like IT. I think there's like a part of like social decorum that all of these goggles and glasses violate. And I think we're gonna a have to decide as a whether that's gona be OK.

And then I think like are when you like go tracking in the polar, you're going to encounter somebody wearing A R glasses. I think the odds are pretty low, but you do see people today with a phone. So what do they replaced with? And I think voice as a modality is is I think it's more credible that, that could be used by eight billion people.

I think social fabric more affected by people staring at their phones. All the time you sit on a bus, you at a restaurant, you go to something and stand their phone like, you know, spouses, friends, we all deal with IT. You feel like you're not getting attention from the person that you're interfacing with in the real world because there is so connected to the phone if we can disconnect the phone, but still take away this kind of addictive feedback loop system, but still give you this computing ability in a more ambient way that allows you to remain engaged in the physical world. I think everyone .

you like elling when he's playing chess, paying attention.

now be playing chess in my A R glasses while pretending to listen to to you.

So how fine is his band? He he got .

point I want to to take on is the reason why these glasses have a chance of working is because of ai. I mean, facebook initially .

made exact exact facebook .

are have made these huge investments before A I was a thing. And in a way, I think you've kind of got ten lucky because what A I gives you is a voice and audio, so you can talk to the glasses and whatever. Wearing able is IT can talk to you like perfect natural language. And computer vision allows us to understand the world around you. So whatever this device is, IT can be a true personal digital assistance this world.

And if you guys play with apple vision pro, I have any if you actually like used IT to any extent, if you actually .

I used IT for a day or a night when we were playing poker, and i've never used IT against IT, right?

I wish I get, but I do think that IT has these tools in IT, similar to, like the original macintosh, have these incredible graphics, uh, editor is like mac paint and all these things that like people didn't like get a dictator at the time. But they became this like tool that completely revolutionized everything in computing later and funds and so on. But like this, I think, has these tools, apple vision pro, with just your control and the keyboard in the eye control. Those aspects of that device highlight where this can all go, which is the at these systems can kind of be driven out keyboards without typing, without like you are moving your finger around without.

I I think that's the key observation. I really agree with what you just said. It's this, it's this idea that you're just you're liberated from the hunting .

impact contact. You don't need to control the computer anymore. The computer now knows what you want, then the computer can just go and do the work.

Well, this is you now, this is the behavior change that I don't think we're fully giving enough gratitude. So today, part of what Jason talked about, what I call the anxiety, is because of the information architecture of these apps that is totally broken.

And the reason why it's broken is when you tell an, A, I agent, get me the cheapest car right now to go to X, Y, Z, place, IT will go and look at lift in uber and whatever, it'll provision the car. And then it'll just tell you when it's coming and IT will break this cycle that people have of having to check these apps for what is useless filter information. And when you strip a lot of that notification traffic away, I think you'll find that people start looking at each other in the face more often.

And I think that that's a net positive. So will meta sell hundreds of millions of these things? I suspect probably. But all i'm saying is, if you look backwards thirty years from now, what is the device that sells in the billions? It's probably not a form factor that we understand today.

I just wanted point out like the the form factor you're saying now is going to get greatly reduced. These were um some of the early apple um a few guys remember these, but frog design made these crazy tablets in the eighties that were the adventure inspiration for the ipad twenty five years later, I guess. Um and so that's the journey we're on here right now. This is clunk y and these are not functioning product.

Apple, turns out you throw away the start and iphone right and everything gets a million next Better.

The other subtle thing that's happening, which I don't think we should sleep bond, is that the airports are probably going to become much more socially acceptable to wear on a twenty four by seven basis because of this feature that allows you to become a useful hearing age.

And I think as IT starts being warned in more, more social environments and as the four factor of that shrinks, that's when I really do think we're going to find some very novel use case, which is, you know, very unobtrusive IT kind of blends into your own physical make up as a person without IT really sticking out. I think that's when you'll have a really killer feature. But I think that the airports as hearing ages will also add a lot. So matters doing a lot, apples doing a lot. But I don't think we've yet seen the super killer harvard device.

And there was an interesting way point. Microsoft had the first tablet here, the the microsoft tablet, for those of you watching that came, you know, I don't know, as the late nineties or early two thousands freedoms. G, if you remember, IT these like incredibly key tablets that bill gates is to all the ninety nine.

two thousand, and you get a lot .

of fall starts. They're spending, I think, close to twenty billion dollars year on this arv anyway.

are finally on computer. I think you got a control of computer thing. Is anything you going to .

do in conversion of like three or four really interesting technological waves? All right, just the dub telling with texture. The static team size, there is a report of a blue color boom.

The tool belt generation is what gz is being referred to as a report in the world street journal reports say tech jobs and dried up. We all were all seeing that. And according to indeed developer jobs down within thirty percent in february of twenty twenty over.

Of course, if you look at layoffs, F I, you'll see all the, you know, tech jobs that have been eliminated since twenty twenty two, over a half million of them. Bunch of things at play here. And the wall street journal notes that entry level of tech workers are getting hit the hardest, especially all these recent college graduates.

And if you look at a historical college, enrollment was part of that chart neck. You can see here, undergraduate, graduate and total. With the red line, we peaked at twenty one million people in either graduate school or under graduate in twenty ten, and that's come down to eight point six million at the same time.

Obviously, in the last twelve years you've had the population has grown. So this is even, you know, with a percentage basis would be even more dramatic. So what's behind this? A poll of a thousand teens this summer found that about half believe a high school degree trade program or two year degree best meets their career needs, and fifty six percent said real world on the job experiences more valuable than obtaining a college. Agree, something you've talked about with your own personal experience to off at waterloo doing apprentice PS essentially thoughts on generation tool.

such a positive trend. I mean, there are so many reasons why this is good, all just just a handful that come to the top of my mind. The first, and probably the most important, is that IT breaks this stranglehold that the university education system has on america's kids.

We have tricked millions and millions of people into getting trillions of dollars in death on this idea that you're learning something in university that somehow going to give you economic stability and ideally, freedom. And IT has turned out for so many people, do not be true, just so absurd and unfair that, that has happened. So if you can go and get a trade degree and liver.

Economically productive life where you can get married and have kids and take care your family and do all the things you want to do. That's gonna an enormous amount of pressure on hier ed. Why does IT charge so much? What does he give in return? That's one thought. The second thought, which is much more narrow, Peter till has that famous saying where if you have to put the word science behind IT, it's not really a thing. And what we are going to find out is that that was true for a whole bunch things where people went to school, like political science.

social science.

social science. But I always thought that computer sign would be immune, but I think he's gonna be right about that too, because you can spend two or three hundred thousand dollars getting in debt to get a computer science degree. But you're probably Better off learning java script and learning these tools in some kind of a boot cap for far, far less, and graduating in a position to make money right away.

So those are just two ideas. I think that IT allows us to be a Better functioning society. So I am really supportive of this trend.

Sex lots on this generation tool belt where we're reading about and you know the sort of combination with static team size that we're seeing in technology companies keeping the number of employees the same or trending down while the growth three percent year over year.

Oh my god, i'm like so sick of this topic of job loss or job disruption. And I got so much trouble. Last week, you ask a question about whether the upper dle class is gonna suffer because they're all going to be put out of work by A I and I just kind of brush IT off, not because i'm advocating for that, but just because I don't think it's gonna en.

This whole thing about job loss is so overdone, there's going to be a lot of job disruption. But in the case of codes, just as an example, I think we can say that codes, depending on who you talk to, r ten, twenty, thirty percent more productive as a result of these coding assistant tools. But we still need quoters.

You can automate one hundred percent of IT, and the world needs so many of them. The need for software is unlimited. We can't hire enough of them.

Glue, by the way, shot out if you're looking. If here a coder hoo is afraid to not be able to get a job, apply for one IT glue. Believe me, we are hiring. I just think that this is so overdone.

There is going to be a lot of disruption in the knowledge worker space like we talked about the workflow at call center and the service factories if there's going to be a lot of change. But the end of the day, I think this can be plenty at work for humans to do, and some of the work will be more in the blue color space. And I agree with to moths that this is a good thing.

I think there's been perhaps an over emphasis on the idea that the only way to get ahead life is to get a like a fancy degree for one of these universities. And we've seen that many the universities there is not that great. The overPriced.

You end up graduating with a mountain of debt and you get a degree that maybe even far worse than computer science that is completely worthless. So if people learn more vocational skills, if they skip college because they have a polivy to do something that doesn't need that degree, I think that's a good thing. And that's healthy .

for the economy, like just the pens too much. And education are two expenses, spending two hundred to make fifty thousand dollars. Distinct tly different than our childhoods or arms are adolescence when we were able to go to college for ten k year, twenty eight year graduate with you, some low tens of thousands in debt if you did take that and then your entry level job was fifty, sixty seven, eight coming at a college, what what are your thoughts as a value issue with?

Well, yeah, I think the marked definitely correcting itself, I think for years as to upset there was kind of this belief that if you want to college, there was not regardless of the college, there was this outcome where you would make enough money to justify the debt you're taking on. And I think folks have walked up to the fact that's not reality.

Again, if there was a free market, remember, most people go to college with student loans, and all student loans are funded by the federal government, so the the cost of education has balloon, and the underwriting criteria necessary for this free market to work has been completely destroyed because of the federal spending in the student long program, there is no discrimination between one school, or you could go to trump university or you could go to harvard IT doesn't matter. You still get a student one, even if at the end of the process, you don't have A A degree that valuable. And so I think folks are now waking up to this fact and the market is correcting itself, which is good.

I'll also say that I think that there is this premium with generally mass production and industrial zone of the human touch. And what I mean is, if you think about, hey, you could go to the store and buy a bunch of cheap food off of the store shelves. You can buy them to hershie's chocolate bars, or you can go to a swiss chocolate tear in downtown san from cisco, pay twenty dollars for a box of handmade chocolates. You'll pay that premium for that Better product.

Same with clothes.

there's a big trend and made and and similarly, I think that there's a premium in human service in the partnership with the humanity is not just about blue color jobs. It's about having a waiter talk to you and serve you. If you go to a restaurant instead of having a machine spit out the food to you, there is an experience associated with that, that you'll pay a premium for.

There's hundreds and hundreds of micro brewis in the united states that in aggregate sell budweiser and Miller and even model o today. And that's because their hand crafted by local people. And there there's an artist and craft.

So while technology and A I are gonna completely reduce the cost of a lot of things and increase the production and productivity of those things, one of the complimentary consequences of that is that there will be an emerging premium for human service. And I think that there will be an absolute virginal and blossoming in the salaries and the availability and demand for human service in a lot of walks of life. Certainly there's all the work at home, electricians and the plums and so on, but also fitness classes, food, personal service .

around two.

doing and learning and developing oneself. There is gonna an incredible blossoming ing, I think, can human service jobs, and they don't need to have a degree in policy to be performed? I think that there will be a lot of people.

They're be very happy in that world. How do you see the differentiation the person makes freeway in doing that job versus the agent for the A I order?

Well, this in person human jobs so if I want to do a fitness class.

do I want to stare at the tunnel?

I think that there's an aspect of um IT IT looks like your Laura piano like you you talk about the story of Laura piano a where is the vicini coming from? How that made? Who's involved in hit? yes.

So I can give you trust flavor out of a can.

but you love the White profile. You you want the story telling. There's an yes, yes.

And I think that there is an aspect of humanity that we pay a premium that we do and will look at. T crushes, I don't know how much a few guys buy. And T I love buying from matters. I love finding handmade stuff on. And you know do you really ah hand craft? And so I think that there's an aspect of this that um a lot of of .

life I I have just just chewing .

up to work. I never used that, but I am going to try IT. Have you guys taken music lessons lately? My kids do piano lessons.

And so last year I started dock to do the forty five hundred pianos piano teacher. There's just like a great aspect to paying for these services to getting. I think, oh.

you can play the harMonica and .

I want to play some bryan songs. And he's got couple songs I like with the hormonal cher in them. So I just got her Monica, my daughter and I have been playing harmonic.

This could .

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next week?

Shy is a little y no I .

know I do the the trials, tribulations of Donald trump and a little bob delena the last interview with um with .

bob dalen I don't know when I was recently about how and that clip .

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and but what he said what you can do that and is like no but I did .

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Sunny ground moon.

It's really to understand too soon there is no tens of dang. That's an incredible clip. I want to rap. You want to keep talking about more stuff .

were at nine let me just telling. I think there is going to be a big war. I think by the time that show air israel and urging and to lebanon on is going to get bigger, it's going to escalate. And by next week, we could be in a full blown multination war in the middle ast, and if I am, you know, A A betting man, I would bet at the odds are, you know, more than thirty forty percent. This happens before the election, that this, this conflict and always escalate.

Thank you for bringing this up. I am not asking anybody to go listen to what I might interview with rogan, but I will say this part of why I was so. Excited to go and talk to him in alone from format was this issue of war is, I think, the existential crisis of this election and of this moment and I really do agree with you free work, there is a non trivial ly high probability the highest ever been that we are just bumbling and sleep walking into a really bad situation we can't walk back from I really hope you're wrong .

and here's the, here's the situation .

I really hope you wrong.

Israel in curse further in in taliban on h going after his beloved. And iran is up getting involved in a more active way. Does russia start to provide supplies to iran like we are supplying to ukraine today? Does this sort of bring everyone to a line? Just to give you a sense, you know, of the scale of what israel could then respond with.

Iran has six hundred thousand active duty military, another three or fifty thousand and reserve. They have dozens of ships. They have nineteen submarines. They have a six hundred kilometer range missile system. Israel has ninety thousand, has sorry, one hundred seventy thousand active duty and half a million reserve personal, fifty warships, five submarines, potentially up to four hundred nuclear weapons, including a very wide range of tactical sub, one killed on nuclear weapons, small payload. You could see that if israel starts to feel incurred upon further, they could respond in a more aggressive way with what is, you know.

by far away, you.

the most significantly stock arsenal and military force in middle east. Again, we've talked about, what are these other countries going to do? What is Jordan going to do in the situation? How is how he's gonna respond?

What is russia gonna? The russia ukraine thing, meanwhile, still goes on and we saw in our group chat one of our friends posted but russia basically said, any more attacks on our land, you know we reserve all rights, including nuclear response that is insane.

Well, you know so just to give you sense.

um I think how are we here?

Yeah so the the nuclear bombs that were set off during world war, too. So want to show you how crazy this this is. You see that image on the left that all the way .

over on the left.

That's a bunker burster. You guys remember those from afghanistan and and the the damage that those under buster bombs calls hero shama is a fifteen killion nuclear. And you can see the size of IT there on the left.

That's a zoom man of the image on the right and the image on the right starts to show the biggest ever test. Ted was a zar bomba by the soviet, and this was a fifty megaton bomb. IT IT caused shock waves that went around the earth three times they could be felt.

A seismic chocolates around the earth three times from this one that nation today there are a lot of point, one to one killed on nuclear bombs that are kind of consider these tactical nuclear weapons that kind of fall closer to between the bunker, burster and the heroine. And that's really where a lot of folks get concerned that if israel or russia, others get cornered in a way and there's no other tactical response that that is what then get gets called out. Now someone detects a point, one or one killed on nuclear bomb, which is gna look like a mega bunker bussard.

What is the other side? What's the world gona respond with that? How on the brink we are.

And there is twelve thousand nuclear weapons with an average payload t of a hundred kilo ons around the world. The U. S.

Has a large stockpile. Russia has the largest. Many of these are hair trigger alert systems. China has the third largest and then israel and india and and someone IT is a very concerning situation.

Because if anyone does get pushed to the brink that has a nuclear weapon and they pull out a tactical nuke, does that mean the game is on? And that's why i'm so nervous about where this all leads to. If we can't decelerate, it's very scared because you can very quickly see this thing.

It's time the most objectively scared i've ever been. And I think that people grossly underestimate how quickly this could just spend up about a control. And right now, not enough of us are spending the time to really understand why that's possible and then also try to figure out what's the offend. And I think it's I think it's just incredibly important that people take the time to figure out that this is a non zero probability. And this is probably, for many of us, the first time in our lifetime where you could really .

say that I think three works right that were at the beginning stages of I think we will soon be referring the third lebanon war. The first one was in one thousand and eight. Two, uh, israel went into lebanon, occupied into the two thousand.

And I way back in two thousand. Six left after about a month. And now we're in the third work.

It's hard to say exactly how much this will escalate. The idf is exhausted after the war in gaza. There is significant opposition within israel and within the armed forces to a big ground invasion of lebanon.

So far, most of fighting has been israel using its area superiority of roaming firepower against southern lebanon. And I think that if israel makes a ground invasion, they're giving hezbollah AR that hezbollah, I mean, he's bola, would love for this to turn into a gorilla war in southern lebanon. on.

So I think there's still some question about whether yahoo will do that or not. At the same time, it's also possible that his balloon will attack northern israel. Azrael has threatened to invade the gallery in response to what israel is doing.

So there's mutable ways this could escalate. And if his bowlin israel and full scale war with ground forces, IT could be very easy for around to get pulled into IT on his bulla side. And if that happens, I think it's disciplinable that the united states will be pulled into this war.

So yeah, look, I think we are driving we have been drifting into a regional war in middle east that know ideally would not pull in the U. S. And I think the U.

S. Should try to avoid being pull in. But I think very likely we will be pulled in if IT escalates.

And then meanwhile, interprets of the warn ukraine. And I mean, I have been warning about this fork two and a half years how dangerous the situation was. And that's why we should have availed ourselves of every diplomatic opportunity to make peace.

And we now know, because there's been such universal reporting, that in install, in the first months of the ukraine war, there was an opportunity to make a deal with russia, where ukraine will get all of this territory back, is this that ukraine would have to agree not be part of nato, would have to agree to be neutral and not part of the western military block that was so threatening to russia. The bi ministration refused to make that deal. They sent in borja n.

Son to scuttle IT. They threw cold water on IT. They blocked IT.

They told zilli, skii will give you all the weapons you need to fight russia. Zeki believed in that IT has not worked out that way. Ukraine is getting destroyed.

It's very hard to get honest reporting on this from the mainstream media. But the source of i've read suggest that the ukrainians are losing about thirty thousand troops per month. And that is K.

I. A. I don't even think that wounded that on a bad day there are suffering twelve hundred casualties is more than even during that failed counter offensive last summer that ukraine had.

During that time, they're losing about twenty thousand tripes month. So the level of carnage is escalating. Russia has has more of everything, more weapons, more firepower, air superiority, and they are destroyed ukraine.

And it's very clear, I think, that ukraine within IT could be the next months. IT could be the next two months. IT could be the next six months.

I think they are eventually going to collapse, are getting close to being combat in people and in a way that poses the biggest danger, because the closer ukraine guests to collapse, the more the west is going be tempted to take intervene directly in order to save them. And that is what silly's ki was here in the us. Doing over the past week is arguing for direct involvement by amErica in the ukraine war to save him.

How did the proposals? He said, we want to be directly emitted to nato immediately. That was his request. And he called this the Victory plan.

In other words, his plan for Victory is to get amErica involved in the war and fighting IT for him. But that is the only chance ukraine has. And IT is possible that the binary ir ministration will agree to do that, or at least agreed to some significant escalation.

So far, I think bitish credit has resisted and other's one sky demand, which is the ability to use america's long range missiles and british long range missiles and storm shadow s against russian cities. That is what zille sky is asking for. Zille ski wants a major escalation tion of the war, because that is the only thing that's going to save him, save his side and maybe even his neck personally. And so we're one mistake away from the very dangerous situation that chh and freebies have described. If a president biden, who is basically scene e or a president heroes, agree to one of these linsley request, we could very easily find ourselves .

in a direct war with the russians. The walks into world, world three is what I should be called.

And the reason why this could happen is because we don't have a fair media that's fairly reported anything about this war. I mean, trump is on the campaign trail making, I think, very valid points about this war, that the ukrainian cause is doomed and that we should be seeking A P deal and a settlement before this conspiring into all all three. That is fundamental correct? But the media portrays that as being pro russian and pro putin. N and if you say that you want peace, you are basically on the take from putin in russia. That is what the media told american public for three years.

The definition of liberalism has always been being completely against war of any kind and being completely in favor of free speech of all kinds. That's what being a liberal means. We've lost the script, and I think that people need to understand that this is the one issue where if we get IT wrong, literally nothing else matters. And we are sleepwalking and tiptoed into a potential massive world war. Jeffrey sux perfectly.

You don't get a second chance in the nuclear age, do you do not?

You do not get a second chance. And for me. I have become a single issue voter. This is the only issue to me that patterns, we can sort everything else up. We can figure out all that we can.

We can find common ground and reason should taxes go up to, taxes go down, but figured out should regulations go up, should regulations go down, we can figure out. But we are fighting a potential nuclear threat on three fronts. How have we allowed this to happen? russia? china? You cannot underestimate that.

When you add these kinds of risks on top of each other, something can happen here. And I don't think people really know they're too far away from IT there too many generations remove from IT? Or is something you heard maybe your grandparents talk about them and you just thought, okay, whatever, I love IT, it's not good. All right. I mean.

during the cube missile crisis, all of amErica was hugged around their TV sets, worried about what would happen. There is no similar concern in this day in age about the isolator wars that are happening. There's a little bit of concern, I think, about what happening.

The middle east, there is virtually no concern about what's your happening in ukraine because people think I can affect them, but I can. And the reasons that could affect them is because we do not have a fair debate about that issue in the U. S. media. The media has simply .

care to any opposition .

to the war has been proposed.

So I would say that when every pundit and every person in a position to do something about IT says you have nothing to worry about, you probably have something worry about. And so when everybody is trying to tell you everybody that this is not a risk, it's probably a bigger risk than we think.

Yeah, they are protesting too much. How can you say it's not a risk?

Think out of protected, right?

Alright.

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