cover of episode One Voter to Understand Trump’s Win

One Voter to Understand Trump’s Win

2024/11/7
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The Run-Up

Key Insights

Why did Monica vote for Trump in the 2024 election?

Monica voted for Trump because she believed he would support U.S. manufacturing and roll back EV mandates, which she felt were crucial for her job security in the automotive industry.

What were Monica's concerns about Kamala Harris?

Monica was concerned about Harris's flip-flopping on policies and her lack of clear, consistent messaging, which made it difficult for Monica to trust her stance on key issues like fracking and economic policies.

How did Monica's personal economic situation influence her vote?

Monica's vote was heavily influenced by her recent layoff in the automotive industry and her fear of not being able to afford her new house. She prioritized her immediate job security over broader social issues.

What did Monica think Trump could do for her job?

Monica believed Trump could help her job by rolling back EV mandates and supporting U.S. manufacturing, which she felt would allow her company to keep producing vehicles like the Ram 1500 in the U.S. rather than outsourcing to Mexico.

Why did Monica feel that Harris's policies didn't align with her needs?

Monica felt that Harris's policies, particularly on economic issues like fracking, were inconsistent and didn't address her immediate concerns about job security and the future of U.S. manufacturing.

How did Monica justify voting for Trump despite concerns about his rallies?

Monica justified her vote by comparing the energy at Trump rallies to that of liberal protests, arguing that individuals can get caught up in group dynamics. She believed that the broader political system would keep Trump in check.

What did Monica think about the Democratic primary process?

Monica was critical of the Democratic primary process, feeling that candidates like RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard were more appealing than Harris, who she felt was pushed onto voters without genuine support.

Why didn't Monica vote against Trump in the 2020 election?

Monica didn't vote against Trump in 2020 because she was dissatisfied with both Biden and Harris. She felt that Biden was losing his mental acuity and that Harris's policies were inconsistent, making it hard for her to support them.

What was Monica's overall sentiment about the 2024 election?

Monica's overall sentiment was one of frustration and self-interest. She felt unheard by the Democratic Party and prioritized her immediate economic needs over broader political considerations.

Chapters

Monica's vote for Trump was driven by her personal economic situation and the belief that Trump would support U.S. manufacturing, particularly in the automotive industry.
  • Monica voted for Trump due to concerns about job security in the automotive industry.
  • She felt Harris's policies were too inconsistent and did not address her immediate needs.
  • Monica's decision was influenced by her recent layoff and financial instability.

Shownotes Transcript

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For more than two years, we've been asking pretty much everyone we meet a version of the same question. Who are you going to vote for and why? And on Wednesday morning, we had the answer to that question, at least the first part.

Donald Trump easily won the electoral vote, and at the time of this recording, he's on track to win the popular vote too. As for the second part of the question, the why of 2024, I wanted to start by talking to one voter who I was thinking about on election night, when it became clear that it was going to be Trump, and that the sweep of his support was telling a new story about this country. Today, for perhaps the last time, who did you vote for and why?

From the New York Times, I'm Ested Herndon. This is The Run-Up. Hi, this is Ested Herndon from the New York Times. I was looking for Monica. Yes, sir. Thank you so much for picking up. How are you today? I'm holding up okay. How about yourself? I'm doing fine. Thank you. You know, I don't know if you remember, hopefully you do, but we met outside the RFK Jr. event. So yesterday, I called Monica.

A Michigan voter I met last spring when I was reporting on support for RFK Jr. I called her back when his campaign started to fall apart because I was interested in what was going to happen to his supporters, who obviously weren't happy with the two-party options. Monica had just been told by the auto company she worked for that big layoffs were coming, and she also told us she was undecided between Trump and Harris.

And her vote will largely come down to which candidate she thought could get her job back. I wanted to know how you ended up voting yesterday.

I ended up going with Trump. Basically, what it came down to was I feel like Trump is going to keep U.S. manufacturing going strong. I feel like he's willing to pull back on the EV mandates. And it's sad because even though Kamala had switched her position kind of at the end on fracking and some of those things, she seemed to be...

Flip-flopping to please whatever electoral base she could get to come to her side. And it all just seemed very disorganized, whereas where Trump, you know what you're getting with Trump. We already had Trump. He can't help but mouth off. With Kamala switching sides so much and doing such minimal work,

mainstream interviewing until just at the end, it kind of left me and those that I talk with wondering where she really stood. So it sounds like you feel like you didn't get enough answers from Harris. I wondered how you came to that decision. Were you someone who watched the debate between, did you watch the debate between Harris and Trump?

I did, and it was painful because Trump is a loud mouth, says stupid things. And it was definitely choosing of the lesser evils. What it came down to for me was personal self-interest.

I wish I could have stood here and voted for the common good of every man in the United States, but I've been laid off for two months from the automotive industry. I just bought a house that I may not be able to afford because the week after I signed down on it, I lost my job and I don't know when I'm going back.

And if I was the only person who was voting based on my own personal interest, then I would have lost. And I would have been totally OK with the fact that America has decided on Kamala. But when I can say, you know, I vote for some I voted for Trump because of my very personal, specific circumstances, I could say, you know what, I could be totally wrong.

But apparently enough people had some sort of personal circumstances and their own life story to say Kamala isn't working for me. And what do you think Trump will do for your job? I mean, I get what you're saying. You didn't feel like Harris kind of spoke to the same concerns you have about your own kind of economic situation. But what did you hear Trump say that made you think he would improve it?

Rolling back the EV mandates, making it so that my company could keep making the vehicles like the Ram 1500 for firefighters and construction workers. That truck got moved to Mexico because it's cheaper to make over there. Tariffs aren't great, but if a vehicle built outside of the U.S. costs so much more than one inside the U.S., then maybe...

We'll just keep buying American. It's a Hail Mary. I don't think he's going to fix everything for us. I'm not dancing up and down my driveway saying, yay, I'm getting my job back tomorrow because Trump won the election. At the same time, I feel like that was where my best odds were for U.S. manufacturing. And again, if you could be specific, what was it about Harris that wasn't working for you? Flip-flopping?

A lot of the policies even. You know, I'm someone who lived in Mexico for two years teaching English when the Zetas were running amphetamines across the border with some of my, you know, students' parents. It was a messed up situation where I speak from a very specific life experience. And...

A lot of the policies I'd have to say I agreed with Trump on, the one that was definitely a save grace on the Democratic side was the right to choose. I do believe in the right to choose. At the same time, it's been given back to the state. And even if Trump did want to come in and say...

no exceptions on abortion i don't think that the people that we have an office my governor gretchen whitmer who is a democrat is gonna allow that to happen interstate so when the only thing that was really pulling for harris in my opinion of the policy

was woman's rights. But at the same time, when we can't even afford to stay in our houses because the automotive industry has taken a nosedive, all the extra stuff kind of goes out to the side. I need to be able to pay my bills before I worry about my fellow man's right to...

situations that hopefully should have been a situation in the first place. It bothers me when people say, you know, no exception for rape, incest, that that's messed up. But I don't think that the Republicans are going to push it that far. I really don't. And I don't believe that Project 2025 was anything endorsed specifically by Trump.

Mm hmm. You mentioned kind of how your vote came down to your own economic situation. I guess that is of interest to me, too, because it speaks to a kind of broader divide that we hear among some type of voters. Some people think of their vote as, you know, for their own situation. Others think of their vote sometimes for a more collective situation. You know, I guess I'm asking for you.

How did you go about that decision? How did you decide that what's most important in my vote is who I think can help my job immediately now? Because I don't have any brothers or sisters. Because I'm 37 and I don't have any kids. I don't have to worry about the future. And it sounds callous and it sounds shallow and self-interested. But the point of the matter is, if I can't take care of myself and pay my own bills immediately...

I can't dedicate my personal time outside of work to work with people in recovery because I'm an ex-addict. I can't use my time to spend time with friends that are worse off

me investing my time in. If I have my money straight and if I'm able to just keep the job that I love, I love working on trucks. I'm a Motor City Detroit homegirl. I love building cars. And I've gotten very comfortable over the past seven years at Chrysler being able to live my lifestyle and

And I was selfish. I was very selfish in my vote. But at the same time, I realized the fact that if I was making a very selfish choice, then the rest of the United States would check me and I would be in the minority. So I wasn't going to be butthurt no matter who won.

I also remember the last time we talked, you mentioned how one of the things that gave you pause was the tone and tenor of the Trump rally that you went to. You compared it, if I remember correctly, to even like some... It was a little reiki. Yeah. It was a little reiki was my wording. Yeah, I remember you invoking kind of even, you know, third reiki imagery, to use your words. I guess I'm saying if you have that feeling

I would love for you to explain why that is not disqualifying for you in your own vote. Because I've been in groups of liberals who are losing their mind saying, we're going to take your kids. What do you mean? I'm sorry. I live in Ferndale, Michigan, which is a very LGBTQ friendly community. And I have seen during a pride march, we're coming for your kids chance.

So are they being shit lords or are they actually coming for your kids? Are people being caught up in the energy of USA all the way or are they actual third Reiki? The masses are asses. Individuals are intelligent. But when you get a bunch of people in a group who all have the same material, same like ideals, they tend to act a little boisterous. If I hear you correctly, you're saying that the –

You felt a little – you felt some right-wing, fringy, maybe fascist-y energy maybe, but you feel like you're giving folks a pass for getting wrapped up in those extremes because you think that you've heard liberals get wrapped up in extremes about –

I know I've been in a crowd of liberals that have been wrapped up in extremes as far as their ideology. Everyone can get caught into a certain energy, and just because a certain group of people who come out to a rally and want to get energetic act fools doesn't mean that that's the platform of the entire party. Uh-huh.

And again, I'm asking this just because to make it most clear, I appreciate you answering these questions. I guess I would love for you to hear, I guess when it's, when you say something like third Reiki as a meaning, you know, invoking like the history of Nazism, it feels so big, you know? And then... I did say Reiki. I didn't necessarily say third in our first interview. Okay, sorry, sorry. Yeah. But, but no, um...

But I guess I'm saying that feeling feels really big. And so I'm hearing you also compare it to things you heard at a pride march. Those two things for you just canceled out?

Yes. Yeah. For the most part, I realize that people can act a fool if they're in a group of people who share their ideals. You get brave, you get boisterous. OK. You seem to have a belief that Donald Trump will be held in check, you know, whether it's Project 2025 or the most kind of extreme Trump proposals. You just don't think those are going to happen, I guess.

Why? I mean, last time he made kind of clear his desire to flout some of the Democratic guardrails. And he's made that even more clear at some of the rallies. I imagine you probably at the one you were at, too. So I guess your level of confidence that Trump will be kept in check, where does that come from?

Because we've seen it before. He said he was going to lock Hillary up. Hillary's still running around talking the fact that he's a this, that, and the other. She's not locked up. They said that he wasn't going to leave. Yeah, there were a bunch of rowdy people who did some stupid stuff on January 6th, but when January 20th came around, he left. I

I don't think that one person can take down this country no matter who it is. It would have to be, I just don't see it happening. I have too much faith in my fellow American for one idiot given between two idiots that we had to choose from. Was there a Democratic candidate

You know, like, let's I mean, I mean, this is kind of a crazy hypothetical considering that this was not possible. But let's say like Gretchen Whitmer was running. Like, was there a Democratic candidate who could have gotten your vote over? Was this about Joe Biden and Kamala Harris? Or was this about you liking Donald Trump?

No, there was definitely an ability for there to be other candidates. RFK, I know he was a weirdo and he probably wouldn't have won it, but if RFK would have gotten picked for the Democratic, I would have voted for him. I'm not sure when Tulsi Gabbard switched teams officially, but I thought that she was a wonderful candidate.

out of Pennsylvania, I believe. I thought that he was a very, very strong, even-tempered candidate who would be an American who would bring an interesting eye to the Middle East as someone who was a Jewish individual who still...

I just wish there would have been a Democratic...

uh... primary now my job not a declared democrat i wouldn't have voted in it but there were definitely options there that i thought that it didn't have to be kamala harris who got picked and and didn't win a single freaking vote to get to where she was that with a big problem of mine primary would have changed the whole thing for me instead of having someone pushed down my throat who i fell failed upwards i really do

Well, when this was Joe Biden versus Donald Trump, did you know how you were going to vote?

I didn't. Okay. I didn't. I was still on the side. And especially after the original Biden and Trump debate that they were holding on to a candidate who, yeah, he served his four years. He got elected. Why did we have to put him up for a second run? Why did we have to do that? I'm not a declared party person. I just feel I would have loved to, to have had an excuse to vote against Trump and,

But with an old man who seemed to be losing it a bit and a vice president who kept on flip-flopping, who never won a primary vote, that's a really hard sell. Mm-hmm.

You know, how, let me ask, like, I finally have my questions, you know, asked. I guess if you were thinking about someone who cannot conceptualize the idea of someone who does not really like Donald Trump, said they were looking for an excuse to vote against them.

But just didn't love the Democratic options. I'm sure there's a lot of people who prioritize stopping Trump over everything else. Yeah. I guess if you could say why that was not what you decided to do, how would you explain that? Frustration and self-interest. Mm-hmm.

Not being heard, being able to at least have people within the Democratic Party, like my mother, like my best friend, cast that vote to at least have an option or a voice in that Democratic... This is the election I learned not to be an independent because I've always wanted to go to the independent vote. Whenever I voted straight ticket before, it was 2012, I went libertarian. And...

You've got to have a two-party because if you have a three-party, then two-thirds of the country is pissed off their person doesn't get picked. And I wish I didn't have to pick who was going to run the frickin' nation. But when it came down to it, it was impulse, it was self-interest and frustration. Mm-hmm.

Thank you so much. I really appreciate you taking us through it. I mean, it's a really crazy time. And so, you know, I appreciate you hopping on the phone and making clear what really motivated you. Thank you so much. You have an awesome time finishing this up. Okay. Sounds great. We'll talk to you soon. All right. Bye. More than anything else, Monica feels like a lot of people we met over the past two years.

who are wrestling with their dissatisfaction with the status quo, and with it, the Biden administration. In the end, her desire for change was greater than her fear of Trump. That's The Run-Up for Thursday, November 7th, 2024. We'll see you soon. The Run-Up is reported by me, Ested Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O'Keefe, and Anna Foley. It's edited by Rachel Dry and Lisa Tobin.

With original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Landman, and Alisha Ba'i Tut. It was mixed by Sophia Landman and fact-checked by Caitlin Love. Special thanks to Paula Schumann, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halfinger, Maddie Maciello, Mahima Chablani, Jeffrey Miranda, and Elizabeth Bristow.

Do you have questions about the 2024 election? Email us at therunupatnytimes.com. Or better yet, record your question using the voice memo app in your phone. That email again is therunupatnytimes.com. Thanks for listening, y'all.