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Landing the Plane

2024/11/4
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Key Insights

Why is Trump's lack of discipline seen as a potential liability in the final days of the campaign?

Trump's lack of discipline, characterized by his unscripted riffs and lack of caution, is reinforcing the negative message against him. His incaution is seen as detrimental to his campaign, potentially leading to his defeat.

How does the Iowa Seltzer poll differ from other polls in its methodology?

The Iowa Seltzer poll relies heavily on telephone calls, which allows for higher completion rates compared to digital methods. This old-school approach is seen as more reliable in Iowa, where phone polling is still effective.

What are the key factors influencing the shift in Iowa's polling numbers?

The six-week abortion ban in Iowa and the extensive media coverage of its impact on people's lives are major factors. Additionally, the gender gap, particularly among senior women and independent women, is playing a significant role.

Why might some pollsters be adjusting their methodologies to avoid being outliers?

Pollsters may be adjusting their methodologies to avoid being outliers due to the fear of being wrong, especially after the polling industry's perceived failures in 2016 and 2020. This 'herding' tendency can lead to less accurate but more consensus-driven results.

What is the significance of the gender gap in the upcoming election?

The gender gap is crucial because women vote in greater numbers than men. If Harris's support among women is equal to or greater than Trump's among men, she is likely to win the state, as women's higher turnout can tip the balance.

What are the potential dangers of Trump's rhetoric about election irregularities?

Trump's rhetoric about election irregularities and claims of a stolen election can incite violence. His language, including fantasies about shooting enemies, is seen as dangerous and could lead to unrest, especially if the election is close.

How does the field operation differ between the two campaigns in battleground states?

Harris's campaign has extensive and energetic field operations in northern battleground states, while Trump's campaign lacks such a robust ground game. This difference could be a significant factor in voter mobilization and turnout.

What is the significance of African-American turnout in Georgia?

African-American turnout is crucial in Georgia. If it approaches or exceeds the 30% proportion of the total vote, it bodes well for Harris. Lower turnout could indicate a weaker performance for her in the state.

Chapters

The hosts discuss the vibe shift in the campaign, Trump's low energy, and the impact of the Seltzer poll on the candidates' confidence.
  • Trump's low energy and wistful demeanor at rallies.
  • The Seltzer poll showing Trump losing Iowa by three points.
  • The contrast between Harris's discipline and Trump's incaution.

Shownotes Transcript

Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy. Michigan, two days to go. You ready? You ready? In one of the most consequential elections of our lifetime, and we have momentum. It is on our side. Can you feel it? The worst administration in the history of our country.

And if we let this slip away, we should have our heads examined. Mike Murphy, John Heilman, brothers. Yes, I'm here having my head examined. They say it's as abnormal as ever. So here's my question to you guys. Which candidate do you think feels like they're going to win of those two? That's a trick question, David. Is that a trick question?

Well, look, I tuned into Trump and Greensboro on Saturday after the Seltzer poll, which we're going to talk about, came out. And you could see it. He was a low energy, to coin a phrase. I mean, you know, he got worked up and did his stuff, but he got wistful. We're not going to have any more rallies. And, you know, he's looking good.

He's looking beat. And then it spun into more rage and craziness as the weekend went on. And she clearly is feeling the vibe shift that Johnny and I talked about on our last pod Thursday or Friday or Saturday. God, it's been it's been hours. Who knows what this is? Who knows the data is, Mike? Yeah. Yeah. So anyway, it is.

in the echo chamber inside their worlds and also you had that piece come out uh in the atlantic tim alberta which was all the trump snake pit staff all spilling to each other about how bad each you know so the whole thing looks like berlin 45 from the island i i uh

The line in the piece that struck me was Trump saying he was mad that people were telling him he has a more disciplined campaign now. And he said, discipline? What does discipline have to do with winning? I think we may find out on Tuesday because his lack of discipline may kill him. Why don't you say that line again? Murphy just went right over it. I didn't even hear it. But I know what the line is, though. But go ahead, David. Say it again so everyone can hear. The line is discipline.

What does discipline have to do with winning? Yes. Well, I mean, the man has won a fair number of things in his life through indiscipline, although it would appear that in this case, it may not be a surefire formula in certain circumstances. Let Trump be Trump. God bless him.

Well, it's funny just because I did bet your recommendation, David, I had Charlemagne the God on my podcast today. Charlemagne, when he did that interview with her, the first one, he said to her, to Kamala Harris, he said, people say you're scripted and you're too many canned talking points. And her response, she smiled and said, other people call that discipline, Charlemagne. And it was like, there could be no clearer contrast with Donald Trump. Well, listen, her incaution...

Her caution has been a source of consternation for a lot of the campaign. But at the end of the campaign, it's an absolute asset. And his incaution, which is a key to his sort of authenticity, the riffing and all of that stuff, is killing them right now. Now, it doesn't mean he's going to lose. These polls are still incredibly tight.

But I'll tell you something, Mike, and, you know, you know this from all the campaigns that you've worked on. I know from all the campaigns I do. You know, these campaigns really generally aren't static. I mean, you know, usually they're moving one way or another.

Right. They're living organisms and they affect each other. Right. So he somebody told him the seltzer pole. He was that person was probably, you know, beaten to death in the trailer because nobody wants before he goes out there to provoke him to craziness. I mean, there was a news item that one of the later Pennsylvania, I think it was rallies when he was really in Corking.

Susie Wiles went out there with the Semperfor flags to try to shut them down, you know, before he completely melted down. Before he did something even more disgusting to a microphone stand than that fellatio thing. It was just a real win for him the other day. Exactly. So...

Yeah, you can just feel all that stuff happening. But the polls are convicted. I mean, the polls all say the same thing. Margin of error too close to call. Who the hell knows? But the vibe is shifting in mighty ways. And it has been since the Bund rally at Madison Square Garden.

And Trump's making it worse. You know, Obama used to say this would be really interesting if we weren't right in the middle of it when we were in a sticky wicket. I believe he would say this shit would be really interesting. He did say that. I'm trying to clean it up for our family viewers. No, let's not do that. He did say that. But I feel that way kind of as an American right now. I mean, but as a political junkie.

man, it's been interesting to watch the last 10 days because presidential races are so different than any other race. We've discussed this before, how the candidates behave, particularly at this juncture in the campaign is so important. And,

She's been disciplined. Her campaign's been disciplined. Their message is coordinated with their ads. And he's doing, you know, she got in trouble, you guys, for going on The View and out of, you know, a sense of loyalty or whatever, saying she wouldn't have, she couldn't think of where she would differ with

Biden, and that affirmed the negative message they were running against her. He is every day now going out and affirming her negative message against him. He's proving her case on an hourly basis. Whenever he wants to take an hour off, they call advance. I'll take it from here, champ. You know, so it is incredible. I mean, to your earlier point about closing a campaign, I used to give McCain shit.

Because I said, when you were a Navy pilot, I'll bet the part you hated was landing. And he goes, yeah, I couldn't fly upside down or sideways. I had to actually, you know, go straight and narrow and careful to get on the deck. So, yeah.

It's, you know, life imitates art. And this is the way, if this were a novel, it would end with Trump's Trumpness, his rocket fuel in the end, burning him up in a fireball. Should it happen? Now, cut to two.

you know, we're not, we're not out of the dangerous woods yet. Yeah. Do me a favor and turn to the last page, will you? Cause I don't know what's going to happen here. Yeah. Oh, I think she's going to win. I will predict it with low to medium confidence. Now I've gone from no confidence to low to medium. Well, I'm probably with you, Mike. I'm probably with you about that, Mike, but I would say, you know, when I did that interview with pluff, uh, not that long ago, he made an obvious point that you guys will both agree with, but it's just for the, for the, for the political, for the hacker room audience. You know, he was like,

What are the only two things that matter at the end if the race is really close? There's two things. One is field, the ground game, and the other is candidate performance. And candidate performance...

you know, really can, these are very, if the race is really this close, right. How you, you know, the impression you make that these races often break with a very small undecided, they often break in one direction or the other. And those are the things that all of a sudden people are actually paying attention to the election that we've been obsessed with for three and a half years. Right. Everyone else in America looks up in the last 72 hours and says, Oh, Hey, there's a presidential election going on. Yeah. Oh, that Trump guy.

I will say that if you think about the vibe thing, like look for some tangible expressions, not just of the candidates' vibes, but what's going on around them. I'm sure you guys saw in this over the weekend the number of events that Trump is doing in these places where by the time he's halfway through his speech, the place is half empty. There was one camera operator who did him a real disservice. Yeah, that was great. That was fantastic. It's the end of we'll never get to do these great rallies again.

We've had the greatest rallies of all time. You can't get a seat. They're sold out. Yes, and the guy panned out there and showed the place was like basically two-thirds empty. But that's been true in a lot of these places where he's done. He did this event in Michigan last night. I think that he, in the same venue as he did one two weeks ago, and the crowd was half the size and half the energy, according to everybody there. It's not just the crowd. It's him. I mean, he looks depleted. Listen to this, and he's doing stuff like this.

He's doing stuff like this. I want to play a couple of clips from that. If I were in the Trump campaign, this event in Pennsylvania yesterday was pretty alarming. Oh, my God. Well, actually, this one was in North Carolina, and I'll get to Pennsylvania. But this was sort of curious. And you have one of the best of all right here.

David McCormick, you know that. Where's David? Is he around someplace? You know, we just left him. He's a great guy. So that was in... Yeah, it was in Pennsylvania. That was in North Carolina. And he was talking about a Senate candidate in Pennsylvania. That can happen. But in Pennsylvania, he said this. And one other thing that I'll play for you that kind of raised eyebrows. The day that I left.

I shouldn't have left. I mean, honestly, because we did so we did so well. We had such a great. So now, I mean, every every polling booth has hundreds of lawyers standing there. It's all about the lawyers. Everybody's standing lawyers. Nobody should have that. So he shouldn't have left.

He shouldn't have left. Yeah, he should have got out the sandbags and the whole thing. You notice he switched to the black MAGA hat, too? Where you couldn't see his eyes. His eyes were... Yeah, but, you know, we're going with the fascist color pattern for the big thing, talking about holding out in the White House to the end. Yeah, right. Just a couple of more, just to give you a flavor of, more of a flavor of the thing. I have a piece of glass over here, and I don't have a piece of glass there.

And I have this piece of glass here. But all we have really over here is the fake news. And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don't mind that so much. I don't mind. This obviously got a lot of play because the news media didn't exactly appreciate having a target put on their backs. But this is...

Sort of what he's doing out there. No, it's a spiral. It's a spiral.

And the other thing is with Trump, who's an old man who's already losing it, who's the campaign genius who said more events are better? Yes, I've got – I bet you they're chanting in his headquarters, lock him up. They should. At this point. Just allow me to make the one of the requisite points here in all seriousness.

It is, again, the case that like the Liz Cheney comment, which I agree with people who say that he was not calling for her to be put in front of a firing squad. He wasn't. He was, you know, he had a different kind of violent fantasy about having a different kind of violent fantasy about having her senior year.

out in the face. How weird is it that he has another violent fantasy in public about having all the press shot? Is he calling for it? No, but it seems like it's on his mind. He basically is in the mind frame right now where what he's saying out loud is anybody who he perceives is against him, he's kind of fantasizing they might get shot. And those kind of violent fantasies are not normal. I mean, that's just not the way people don't have these fantasies over and over again. Well, speak for yourself, but

To your point, David, about how he's reinforcing one aspect of the Harris campaign's message every time he talks, this is the darkest part of it, is the part where he's this old man wanting to see his enemies shot. Yeah, absolutely. And look, we should talk about the polls, but let me just segue to this because it's related. There's a piece in The Times that just posted yesterday.

about what's going on on Telegram. And the headline is Telegram. The Telegram for our listeners is an encrypted chat thing that groups who like to make trouble...

like because they figure the FBI isn't listening, which is always true. And also occasionally it's been used in things like the Ukrainian, at the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia war, it was like Zelensky's main way of communicating with people. It's, you know, it's... Yeah, and the Russian resistance in Russia. Right, right. The left prefers signal, the right-wing nuts like Telegram. On Telegram, a violent preview of what may unfold on Election Day and after. And, you know, when Trump uses this language...

And he, you know, he he's been talking increasingly about how there, you know, there's there are election irregularities and they're trying to steal it again and so on. And, you know, he is sending signals. He is sending signals and it is dangerous.

And it is worrisome. If this is a close election, the best thing that could happen. Look, I think it is more likely than not that he wins Georgia and North Carolina. But I tell you, I mean, I've seen polling from those states in the last 48 hours. He's been in North Carolina like four times over the weekend. Something's going on there. So, you know, those races could fall.

to her, that would be the best thing that could happen because those races are going to, we'll know what happened in those races, most likely Tuesday night. And if she were to win one or both of those, I think the likelihood, it'll be very clear that Trump is in deep trouble. Yeah. I mean, it's a combined signal that that's what the Seltzer stuff is about too. I'm a little contrarian on this. I mean, I agree with all that and it worries me.

But if beat down, old, tired Trump doing wistful whining, and I don't believe it'll be three states to four states to three. I think whoever wins will win a bunch. And it's a wet blanket. Trump's tone in that even on his own nuts. I think his his.

defeated vibe takes energy out of them too. Oh, that's what you're doing. I didn't know what you were talking about when you said his own nuts. I didn't know what you were talking about. Well, keep your dream journal out of this. He would probably talk about that. Let's not talk about Doe's nuts. Let's talk about Dee's nuts. So...

So my point is the smothering effect works across the whole Trump ecosphere. So let's talk about that. You keep referencing the seltzer. So let's have a glass of seltzer right now and talk about that. Well, it was kind of an amazing thing. Saturday, bang, all of a sudden, a contrarian poll from a very respected local pollster popped up showing that

Donald Trump actually losing Iowa by three points, 47-44 to Harris. And the internals on the poll, which are outliers, but showed massive shift, particularly of senior women.

to Kamala Harris, which also fit the independent women, kind of fit the narrative of the moment, too, which is boy-girl election. So it was kind of an accelerant kerosene on the fire. But she's a respected pollster. And unlike a lot of the polling you read in the media, the kind of quaint fact that in Iowa, you can still get people to take a telephone call. So you're not relying on text as much. She's heavily telephoned, the old school way to do it.

um, cause you can do it there. It's, it's interesting and it's incredible. She's also, she's all, I mean, she's more than credible. I think, you know, she has kind of almost a racular status, uh, in, in the business. And, and, and part of the thing is with Ann, who, when, when I was at Bloomberg, who was our polling partner. So like,

I worked with Ann on, you know, how she put polls together. We commissioned polls from her and spent a lot of money with her. Like, I know her methodology and I'm not saying anybody's infallible. She's not infallible and she's made some. No pollster is infallible. That's part of it. They always say, you know, 95% certainty that this poll is within four, you know, whatever. But I will tell you what she does, what she doesn't do.

And it's partly because her record is so strong. And now that I was – She doesn't wait. She doesn't – and she's not messing – because – partly because she's got – she got Trump right in Iowa in 2016 when a lot of people didn't. She got Trump right in Iowa on the nose in 2020. I remember being with her.

Being in Iowa on the Saturday before the election when those numbers dropped, her previous poll in the Biden-Trump race – people forget how competitive Iowa was in 2020. Biden had been there the day before on October 30th. Halloween night, the poll dropped. Trump was coming the next day, and her previous poll in September had the race at 47-47.

And I went there to really to do a shoot a circus scene. The poll came out. It had Trump up by seven. And Matt Paul, Democratic strategist, Dave Kochel, Republican strategist, and I all looked up and said,

Trump could win the election like this is like this. That's a and he ended up winning Iowa by eight. I think, you know, that that was the deja vu that I had when this poll came out the other night. And because she's been right so often, she's not like all these other pollsters who are like, man, we really fucked up 16 and 20. What do we have to do to the numbers to make sure that we don't make another mistake, which is a lot of what's going on in the polling industry right now is this hurting phenomenon. Everybody's like, no one wants to be an outlier.

And doesn't give a shit about being an outlier. She might be right. She may be wrong, but she lets, she lets the, she lets the data tell her what the electorate is going to look like, as opposed to trying to model the electorate on top of the data. We had her on CNN last night. Uh, and she was very, you know, she, she is, she's very, very, um,

committed to her approach and unapologetic and fearless. But, you know, the fact is, even if she is off by five points, it's directionally. Yes, it means something. It means something. And it means something most specifically in Wisconsin, I suspect, which is right next door about how things may might go there. But but I'd argue even more. I think directionally it means something. Yes, because there's no force around Iowa.

Right, right. Exactly. There's another piece, which is she has Harris winning 97% of Democrats, which was like what you'd expect. She has Trump only getting 89% of Republicans in that poll. If Trump, I mean, all of Trump's win numbers are modeled on him getting 95, 96, 97% of Republicans. If he's really at 89% of Republicans, he's fucked everywhere. And that will...

that will validate the argument that, that, that some of the Harris campaign were like, that's why we want to lean on Liz Cheney. I said one cautionary note about it. You know, I think all, I agree with everything you guys are saying. And one of the, obviously one of the questions we have that we'll be looking for tomorrow is, are, is there a cadre of women, independent women, Republican leaning independents and Republican women who are, uh,

who are flaking on Trump. He's certainly doing his best to make that happen with the things that he's saying out there during these 10 days. But Iowa does have, and Mike, you know, Iowa very well, as I know Iowa very well, you know, it has a higher percentage of college educated voters. So that, that may impact somewhat on these numbers, but there are no, there's no doubt unless, unless,

Ann has blown a tire. You know, she's a pretty reliable driver here. The question—go ahead, Mike, make your point, and then let's talk about this weighting of poll issue. Well, yeah. So just backing up for a sec. When I'm in a campaign and I get a smart pollster showing something that's a little different than norm because everything is revert to mean most of the time, like Trump at 89 percent of repubs, I say, well, is there any other evidence of this?

And in this campaign, there is. You've got hundreds of ranking former staff for Bush, Romney, McCain publicly out there. You've got half the Trumps. I mean, organically, there are a lot of public anti-Trump Republicans at a level I've never seen in a presidential campaign as far as party defect.

So, you know, it's not like we've never heard of it before. You can see it all the time. And that could mean he's an 89 or 90 percent. Now, in Ann's poll, on the other hand, nobody gets 97 percent of their party. I mean, that Dem number was high. I would have believed 95. So it's a tweak.

And we've never seen Iowa polling, though. Kristen Soltis Anderson had an earlier AARP poll that kind of tracked themselves showing senior white people that D in a presidential race in Iowa. But it's a surely a different kind of presidential race with a crazy man who is running, doing everything you can to blow a gender gap to the moon. So it all does make sense. Here's the other thing, though, is that, you know, there are these unique circumstances in Iowa where.

i.e. the six-week abortion ban. And honestly, the reality is, she had Biden down by 18 to Trump in June. The abortion ban got passed in July. And it's now been in place since July. There's been tons of television coverage. There have been some very vivid stories of people whose lives have been affected in a negative way by the abortion ban. And they've got two of the four congressional races there

are super competitive and so the issue of abortion has been like on tv and paid media and and free media for for months and that might make it actually a little bit of an outlier in the sense that it's gotten so much attention and it feels so raw well the electorate is getting like wisconsin level attention in terms of paid media and everything else so it may be like a little bit that may be driving some of the over of the over of the of the gender gap there but it is obviously the case that dob

is an issue everywhere. And we should point out that this six-week ban has been litigated, and finally the Supreme Court, state Supreme Court, allowed it to move forward fairly recently. So this is top of mind in the state. Yeah, I agree with you. I think that's a definite factor here. Let's talk, can we talk about this issue of how, you know,

We talked about it last time about pollsters not wanting to be dumb shits three times in a row. And I asked her, but I wanted to ask her but ran out of time. Does she think that other polls are...

essentially downgrading the true level of support for Harris. You know, there's this Emerson poll that came out, I think simultaneously with the ads. Yes, 10 points. They had Trump up by 10. And she, this morning on Morning Joe, basically said...

you know, she basically took a shot and rarely ever does this, but she took a shot at the Emerson bolsters and was like, you know, I think they're, they're putting their thumbs on the scale and modeling off of the 2020 electorate because they're not getting, you know, I think they're, they're, I shouldn't say they're guilt. She very strongly implied by criticizing their methodology, strongly implied that she was thought they were part of this,

hurting tendency that's going on a lot of places and this kind of you know digital this statistical jiggery pokery whereby everybody's suddenly like afraid to do an outlier because they don't want to be the one who looks like an asshole on election day part of it too is sampling's become so hard you know let's say you want to go get 600 randomly distributed people the electorate

One advantage Ann has is in Iowa, you get higher completes. Try in the Philly suburbs. You're going to have to call a thousand people for every completed phone call. So what pollsters do is they text people, you click a link, you go online. And that's proven to match the phone thing fairly well. But David Hill does this too, a pollster on the Republican side, a PhD that I've worked with a lot.

He almost always gives me two sets of numbers, weighted and unweighted. What we got just calling who's out there and seeing it and then waiting a tiny bit to sex age, you know, the census stuff. That's what Ann does. Ann just waits to census. Right, right. It's the old school way. And believe me, there's a strong case for it. The hard part in that is you need a place where you can get at least some calls cell phone to complete it.

And Anne's very good at that. So is Hill. So on the other hand, you have these pollsters now come back with a sample where they only got two thirds of who you want to get. And they say, well, we got to apply the steroids here because, you know, we're in the genetic lab. And then they start adding what the great pollster Mark Melman talks about preconceived attitudes. You know, who's a likely voter? Well, we'll just decide and then start to modify the thing more. And that's

We're getting into marrying your cousin here a little bit.

And God knows the outcome. So that's why I have a little extra faith in Ann. Yeah, no, no. It's the old Hick joke. Billy Bob, where's your sister? I don't know. Well, hell, you ought to. You married her. Okay, that's great. There you go. Send your mail to David Axelrod at the Chicago Democratic Cook County headquarters. The other interesting things are the fact that her results are pretty closely mirrored by this polling out of Kansas and this polling out of

Ohio, where there's some pollster, some reputable pollster who did a Kansas poll the other day that had Trump only up four after having won the state by, I think, 12 last time. And there are two now reputable Ohio polls that show it at three and four, which are basically... By the way, maybe completely coincidental, those are two states that have had big abortion battles recently. Right. And there are also two states that, because they're not battleground states, have not seen a lot of the kind of flood of polling. So you have people who are more likely to do

about the kind of honest Dan Seltzer polling. I want to give Mike Murphy credit for one thing, though. In our little... I know I hate it, but I have to say this was actually funny when we were texting about this, the three of us, just a little... Pull back the curtain on the hacks on tap here. When we were texting about the Seltzer poll the other night and David Axelrod said, you know, this is a... Is this a canary in a coal mine? And Mike's response was, I think this is more like a grain silo explosion, big fireball, potential fatality, and seen for miles.

Well, I'll give you another. That was well done. I got it. You know what it really reminds me of? This is for you cinephiles out there. It reminds me of the great the old great war movie, The Dam Busters, where they're blowing up the dams. And, you know, they finally a couple of the planes get the skipping bomb. And then it's like the cup of coffee starts to vibrate in the dam. And next thing you know, things are going to break open.

So it could be the trauma before an election night where the story will be she breaks through and this is Roy Bedford Trump and five or six states pop for her. It could be. It could be. It could happen. On the other hand, the Republicans could, according to the more conventional polling everywhere, sweep all three.

And then it'll all be black MAGA hats. I believe it is not mythology because I've gotten enough reports on it that the field operations, particularly in these northern battleground states for...

uh, for her are extensive and energetic. And he doesn't have any of that. No, he, he, he outsourced it to a couple of grifters and, uh, you know, ironically, and, uh, yes, I'll do the grifting around here. But they, uh,

By the way, you guys, everybody should read Tim Alberta's full piece. Oh, it's incredible. And by the way, La Cevita is starting his escape plan since apparently he's been purged out of the last week, which is a gift to him.

You can say, yeah, yeah. You know, the lunatic finally snapped on me. I couldn't manipulate it worse. So hopefully he's on his way to Panama. So this is a mini-hacks. So what we should do is— Land the plane? Yeah, we should land it by saying, what are we all going to be looking at or looking for tomorrow night? From various perches—one more plug—

Go to CNN to check out Axelrod's groovy sport jacket. Go to MSNBC to see Heilman calling it the way it is. And check out Amazon Prime. It's free, starting 5 o'clock Eastern. Brian Williams, Carville, yours truly. We're going to be doing a crazy Space Cowboys election thing here. It should be fun. I'm going to be looking at counties I know and states I know from working there, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia.

And, you know, that'll be benefited time zone and Pennsylvania, of course. I'll be seeing the normals. Do they look normal? And is Trump underperforming because some Republican women, even not fancy suburban Republican women. I'm going to look at York, Pennsylvania, very strong blue collar Trump County. Is he going to get the old numbers or are we running a little under because Madge didn't tell Larry how she's voting in the booth?

Pennsylvania will be the irritating one because it'll count slow. Michigan will be faster this time, except for Warren, by the way. Third biggest city, the beating heart of Macomb County. That is a Democratic city in a Republican-leaning county now.

They're like Pennsylvania. They're the one county that didn't take the money to start early. It's kind of a convoluted story. But I'll be particularly obsessed with my old stomping ground of Michigan and same thing of Georgia. Take a look at Gwinnett, some of the suburbs, and then see what's going on with African-American turnout, which I know, David, you'll be watching because that's the thing. I agree with everything you said. That last point is going to be important, you know, if African-American turnout continues.

uh, approaches what it was as a proportion of the whole, you know, 30% or so in Georgia. That's good. If it's, if it's under, uh, that's, that's not good. Um, I just say one thing, uh, the easiest way to cut through all of this in these States is look at the, uh, split between men and women. If her gender gap,

among women is equal or greater than Trump's, she's going to win that state because women vote in greater numbers. Greater numbers, right. So if they're minus eight plus eight, she wins. Right. Right. Yes. Yeah. That's a shortcut. Go ahead, Heilman. I was just going to say, the gender thing is obviously super important. I looked to Dave Wasserman on this. 13 counties to watch on election night. Yeah. Baldwin and Fayette in Georgia. Yeah.

Faberis Nash in North Carolina, Muskegon Saginaw in Michigan. Oh, that's a good one. Yeah. Muskegon is like Thai. That's Western Michigan, North of Grand Rapids. Bucks County, Cumberland and North Hampton in Pennsylvania. Sauka County, Ozuki in Wisconsin.

or Ozaki and then Maricopa in Arizona and Washoe in Nevada those are the that's in in Arizona there's only one county essentially yeah that's a big it's a big-ass county yeah 60 ish percent that's where that's where Axelrod hangs out when he's uh when he's doing his son when he does his sunbathing exactly uh nobody wants to think about that but

Even Susan Axelrod doesn't want to think about that. Yeah. I got a text from a friend of mine who was doing field work in Muskegon yesterday. And she's sort of a veteran organizer. And she said, if field means anything, she's going to do well because we're just like over. We're in trouble.

We're just killing it out here. This is a good hack from the hacks. You can go to the Muskegon reporting or there are other ways to get it. It is not a huge number. And if she's up by a couple by better than 500, that's really good for her. Yeah. Did we when did we say we're going to reconvene? Because we probably should reconvene.

When we have something to talk about. Right. I think we might want to do Thursday just to let the Wednesday, the late Pennsylvania come in. And I want time to get to Portugal. Right. Exactly. That's the same. Mike and I will be doing this face-to-face in Porto. My new timeshare. Remember that soupy sales thing? He was a guy in New York who had a kid's show. Originally a Detroiter, by the way. Take it back to Michigan. Apropos to nothing, but he got suspended because he was talking to the kids and he said...

Here's what we're going to do. You're going to go into your parents' bedroom when they're sleeping, and you're going to open up their wallets, and you're going to take that green stuff, and you're going to send it to Uncle Soupy, and I'm going to send you a postcard from Puerto Rico. So that's what I thought of when you guys said you'll be. Not a bad idea. There's nothing that shows just what the demo for this podcast is more than a Scoopy sales reference. Holy shit. Yeah. Why do you think we do hair loss products? Good point.

Work that scam with Oral Roberts. We are going to do Christians against secular humanism. Make your check payable to cash, but the damn Fed's got in the way. With that, everybody, turn out and vote. Watch us on our various outlets and our Twitter feeds, and we will be back after the election to see what happens. Meanwhile, everybody hold hands. Yeah.

Take a deep breath. We're going to know soon. It's America where we can, we can handle it. Let me just say going out. There's a good little bit from, uh, from Kamala that we should play going out. We played her going in, let's play it going out. But I love this shit, man.

I just, I can't be more excited. Yeah, it is fantastic. I mean, the stakes are high, so it sounds frivolous, but boy, there's something awesome about watching the wheels of this big, mighty, whatever it is, turn.

Yeah. Democracy turn. Yeah. Now, I got to admit, I've seen a vibe lift with one David Axelrod. You were you were the peanuts character with the cloud over your head a week ago. But I think I think you're feeling it. I think I'm just watching what's happening. Honestly, I'm just watching what's happening. If if if she were closing badly and he were closing well.

Yeah, you'd be in Portugal. Because we don't know. The polls are so close, you can't sort of like calibrate according to those. No, no, you've got to feel it. You have to report what you see. It's FDR 1940. Feel it. Yeah, exactly. But speaking of feeling it, I kind of enjoyed this. So this is Kamala Harris at a church in Detroit yesterday. And in these next two days, we will be tested.

These days will demand everything we've got, but when I think about the days ahead and the God we serve, we were born for such a time as this. The road ahead won't be easy.

But in times of uncertainty, we are reminded weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning, and church mourning is on its way. God bless you, God bless Detroit, and may God bless the United States of America. I thank you.

There you go, guys. Morning's on its way. I hope they spell it without a U. That's a good button. Yeah, it is. All right, Reverend Axelrod. Okay. All right. See you guys. All right. Later, boys. See you. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye.