S4 Ep57: Keystone State of the Race (with Holly Otterbein)
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Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark, and this is an episode I have waited two years to do because we are going back to Pennsylvania.

You may know because I talk about it a lot. I'm from Pennsylvania and I've spent a lot of time this week there because, you know, between the Republican voters against Trump bus tour that we did, the big bulwark swing state tour, and then moderating a discussion between Vice President Harris and Liz Cheney. I've just been in Pennsylvania a ton. And I can attest that it's the best and swingiest swing state out there this year.

We're going to discuss the state of the presidential and Senate races and really break out our magnifying glasses to see how we think things are going in the state because it's been tight as a tick this whole cycle. My guest today is one of the best Pennsylvania knowers out there, also from Pennsylvania. I ran into her on the road recently. Holly Otterbein, national political reporter for Politico. Holly, thanks for being here. Thanks for having me, Sarah.

I'm like, obviously in a hotel room on the West Coast, but you said everybody keeps coming to you because you're in Philly. That must be nice. Yeah, it makes it a little bit easier. You know, I have a three and a half year old and a almost one year old. And so the more people come to me, the better for me and my family. Yeah.

Oh my gosh, so that's what I had last cycle. Exactly that. During the pandemic. And they are lovely ages, but that is the in-the-stuff ages. Yeah, yeah. I'm not getting a lot of sleep, I'll say that much. Oh, man. Well, good for you. Good for you. But...

I follow you super closely because you know the most about Pennsylvania. And I've got some like in the weeds questions actually that I want to start with about why Pennsylvania, some things are different about it this cycle. One of them is that I've always been a fan of automatic voter registration because it's just an,

easy way. People should be registered to vote. They get a license, whatever. They should be registered to vote. And so Pennsylvania, they have this newly implemented automatic voter registration, but that seems to be favoring Republicans in the state. According to Spotlight PA, Democrats had a 46-39 registration advantage at the 2020 election, and now that advantage is 44-40%.

What might those be telling us about the state of play? And I'm going to caveat this by saying,

I don't always love early vote voodoo right now. We're all trying to read every tea leaf possible, but I'm still interested just in the way that AVR, automatic voter registration, might have changed the makeup of the electorate this time around. Yeah, so I'll say a few smart things that I heard from another reporter who is based in Pennsylvania who studies this, and then I'll tell you some stupid campaign reporter thoughts. Cool. The stuff that's from my smart friend,

It's a lagging indicator. So a lot of party switchers have voted opposite of their registered party for a long time. And so part of what we're seeing here is that Dems got a huge registration boost during the Obama years. And now that's sort of wearing off.

As you sort of noted, independent numbers in particular are going up in these voter registration figures. And part of that, I think, is because of the automatic voter registration being implemented. And some of it is also because of just a long-term move to independent voters, right? More young people, people disillusioned with the two-party system are registering as independents. So those are sort of the well-thought-out thoughts from my friend who covers this.

As a campaign reporter, I'll just say in 2016, Republicans in Pennsylvania felt good about voter registration trends. They won that year. In 2020, Republicans felt good about voter registration trends. You can look up stories from me talking about that. They obviously did not win that year.

So, you know, like you said, I sort of treat the voter registration voodoo the same way. I think it's interesting. But I think, you know, sometimes when we're just anxious to know the results, we read a little bit too much into these numbers. I think those are very smart thoughts. OK, so I want to get right to the groups because I want to dig in on this. This is a Trump poll.

to Biden group, these are what we call flippers in house. And they made up the margins in 2020 for Biden. This is what we focus on in most states. Now, we also do other kind of persuadable groups, the two-time Trump voters who think that Trump is doing a very bad job. Like there's other categories. But I don't think anything is more illustrative of the kind of swing voter that matters than the Trump to Biden voters. But I got to say about this group in particular, sometimes we get groups where

where the group is so perfect. Like, I feel like we should just play the whole thing for you. And I don't mean perfect in the sense that I like them or like I agreed with their positions. I mean that they articulated that

What I hear in groups all the time, but they did such a clear and concise way. And it was a little bit racially diverse, but mostly it was diverse. Like one woman was a house cleaner. You know, it had like just a dad and like a dude in a Steelers jacket. And I just felt like they were from across the state. And it's a big state, Pennsylvania, with like sort of different cultures on the east, west and middle. I'm from the middle of the state and very different from sort of the Philly area.

Pittsburgh sides of things. But I just thought, and maybe I will do this at some point, like in a bonus show, just let you hear it. We always start with the same question. How do you think things are going in the country? And I swear to God, I learned the most from those answers in the first 20 minutes of the focus group every time because they tell you what matters to them.

in those moments. And the way that these voters led with the economy, they were like, let me tell you how much a gallon of milk costs right now. Let me tell you how much my gas costs. While at the same time sort of articulating the idea that like,

Prices were coming down somewhat. And that was good to me when people were like, well, what do people in your focus group say? I think they want this like crisp, clear answer. But instead, I'm just like, listen to these voters talk because you can't just distill it down into one thing. They're complex, thoughtful, interested people. And I'm like, yes, yes.

Yes, this is how people are. Anyway, I'm talking too much to set it up, but I just was really taken with how thoughtful this group was. So why don't you just give me your opening thoughts on the group?

Yeah, I like ate up this focus group. I mean, I just found it so interesting. Obviously, it's a really key group of voters. It's like you said, people who voted for Trump in 2016 and then switched to Biden in 2020. So it's really important that Harris holds on to these people or at least holds on to a really big number of them because Biden always.

only won the state by the tiniest of margins, right? It was 80,000 some votes. And so Harris really has to hold on to these folks. And like you said, it was a cross section of different people. It was like folks from the Philly Burbs, folks from Pittsburgh, folks from central PA, where I'm from. And it was really fascinating. And I was pretty stunned by who people ultimately said they were going to vote for.

Yeah, and I will say, we don't start out by asking people who they're voting for, and we don't really encourage them to offer it, because we are trying to get as much

of just their perceptions about how things are going before you get into kind of vote choice stuff. And so sometimes it can be really interesting after you've listened to somebody talk for 40 minutes about how they think things are going in the country, and then they say who they're voting for. And you're like, I wouldn't have necessarily thought that based on all the things that you said about either the candidates or the way you think things are going in the country or the issues that matter to you. This was one of those groups that was pretty interesting. Okay.

I'm going to start with the presidential race. I want to hear from these voters. And let's just listen to what these swing voters had to say about Kamala Harris, the vice president, as the race is winding down. So I just feel like she luck boxed herself into the race because she was the vice president at the time. And I think there were better people. Impressions of her since she's been in the race are just kind of the same as Kamala.

when she was running for vice president. I'm certainly voting for her though. I probably actually learned more about her made children's book that my kids have than I have in like debates and things of that sort. I'm sure it's not written by her, but it's called Superheroes Are Everywhere. It's something that like somebody gave my kids when she became the vice president. My daughter loves superheroes, so we read it more often than I'd like to admit. But yeah, she's got my vote.

I'm not really keen on her. I really didn't like her record as a prosecutor. I have, you know, some issues with her, but I feel like she's the lesser of two evils, to be honest. And I feel like certain things that Donald Trump is saying that he's going to do, I just can't. They're inexcusable to me. So I feel like I don't even have a choice at this point. I'm not, you know, not overly excited about her.

But, um, I actually do kind of like her experience as a district attorney and attorney general. Like everyone else said, you have to, I mean, you don't have to vote in a state this close. You got to vote for somebody. So as of right now, that's somebody is her for me.

For me, I think it would be awesome to have a woman as president just to represent that women can do things that men can do. Again, I'm very much influenced by my background, but I feel like just as a person, I feel like she relates more to what Americans experience rather than Trump being born with a silver spoon in his mouth and just kind of

living off of daddy's money and making his way through connections that were already made for him and her experience. It's more relatable to most of us that we're not born with tons of money and that we have to hustle, we have to work our way up. And because she is a woman, a brown woman at that, it's beautiful to see that hard work you can make

strive and meet your goals. And it's not just like, oh, that's a white man's like world. But so I really respect her. And yeah, she has my vote.

A lot of these politicians rise by things other than strict merit. Now, Kamala Harris, she was vice president. As vice president, you're supposed to have a low profile. So basically, her personality doesn't come out as vice president. So we have to go by her record as a prosecutor.

Her record as a prosecutor, she kind of flip-flopped on several things. First, she had one ideology. Then she went to another ideology. An example is fracking. She was against fracking before. Now she's for fracking. So I think she is willing to go in the direction that is going to get her the most votes. That being said, it's a question of which is the lesser of the two evils.

But I would vote for Harris because she cares more about image than she cares about her actual politics. She's a Janice. She can speak out both sides of her mouth. She flip-flops. But at least she protects her image. She has done some good. She's done some things. She hasn't lied. She flip-flopped multiple times.

She goes with the flow. She goes with what the people want. She doesn't tell the people what they want, which is a clear distinction. Trump tells you what you should want. She will go with what the people want. If enough people say they want it, then she will flip-flop to that viewpoint and she will probably try to make it happen. She's kind of like a goldfish. Like she's pretty to look at, but I can't tell you anything that she's actually done, which is...

concerning to me, but at the same time, she is the lesser of two evils. And I do like her running me. And I think that that in itself is helpful in me voting for her. Oh, that's a shout out to walls. We don't get those so often. And the groups where walls is pulling people in for her. Okay. So as we set this up, like when we ask people, how do you think things are going in the country?

For a lot of people, they were just like very concerned about the economy. It was just what everybody talked about. You and I both share a similar impression where when we got later into the group where people started saying like how they felt specifically about Kamala or specifically about Donald Trump, they started to reveal their vote preferences and you were like,

oh my gosh, this is a clean sweep for Harris. Every single person is going to vote for her. And yet the beginning of the group was just a bunch of people unloading their grievances about the state of the country. Yeah, exactly. I mean, I think it's worth like pausing. The entire group of Trump to Biden voters was voting for Harris. And this is despite the fact that not all of them are voting for the Democrat in the Senate race.

And yeah, most of them are frustrated with the state of the country. I think both the economy and then just like general sort of dark vibes. I do think that this highlights just how much inflation is really still weighing on people. You know, I think this is one of those things that like,

folks in DC, however well intentioned they might be, they look at all of these numbers and are like, no, but it's going down. And it doesn't matter. When you still go to the grocery store, things cost too much and housing is expensive and childcare is expensive and all of that. And you could just really feel it in this group of voters. Pennsylvania is full of working class voters who don't have college degrees. And so that inflation is hitting them really hard. But

I'm sure if a pollster had polled these voters, they would have all rated inflation and high prices as their top issue, you know, and maybe they would have even said Trump handles the economy better, right? Because that's like what most voters tend to think. But they ended up saying that they were going to vote for Harris. And so...

Yeah.

That was one of my biggest takeaways. Not only if they say that that's their top issue, but also if they believe that Donald Trump might be better on that individual issue, right? Like Donald Trump routinely gets higher marks on handling the economy, although she's been closing that gap.

You know, her sort of saying middle class over and over and over again, I have seen that have resonance. And I do think that the gap on the economy is not what it once was. People, they're not making her carry around Bidenomics completely. And so I think that's been helpful to her. But one of the things we also ask them is to break down for us why they made the switch that they did. Why did you vote for Trump in 2016? Why did you vote for Biden in 2020?

And the answers on this question always range, but we always ask it in these swing voting groups. And the number one reason that people say, though, that they voted for Trump in 16 is because he was not a regular politician and they thought he was a businessman, right? With good business credentials, could handle the economy. Now, he drove them away in 2020 by being chaotic and, you know, just sort of like a nightmare. And that was even before January 6th.

But that sort of perception of him as the businessman who can handle the economy, I still hear that from voters. It's just the number one thing I hear when a voter in one of these groups backslides. So this group was a little different in the sense that it didn't have a single person going back to Trump. Often in these groups, you're losing one person, maybe two. And so for her to get everybody back,

was a bit remarkable. Now, look, if I did the same category of people, I'm sure we'd find three or four more times. I'm sure we'd find one or two people going back to Trump. But I think Democrats get...

really freaked out by the fact that, and Republicans get very bullish, they get very cocky. They're all swagger right now because they're like economy is what people care about in these groups. And people still think Donald Trump is like a businessman, but that is not all that people take into account. Actually, I just want to say really quickly that this lesser of two evils thing, which you heard many people there, I always make the joke that

that if we had a drinking game in our office, every time that a voter said in a focus group, lesser of two evils, like we'd just all be dead. Because it is like the way that people articulate their vote choice. They always think people are kind of bad. They're just voting for the lesser of two evils. So, okay. I want to get to what people said about Trump because I think it really underscores this. But I do want to ask you just from a reporting standpoint,

On this point of how the campaigns are closing, you're getting a little bit of the like Kamala campaign and disarray. There's infighting at the close. And like they had a complicated task in the sense that they had to meld a Biden team with a Kamala Harris team and like figure it out. But I'm interested in their ground game in Pennsylvania and how functional they've been, how good at this. Or are they kind of mired in some of the stupid stuff, let's say?

Yeah, I mean, full disclosure, I wrote one of the Dems and Desiree stories that have come out in recent weeks. And, you know, look, I think people rightly make the point that we see these stories every two or four years. Democrats do just have a habit of like absolutely panicking in the last month of the election. Like the summer is always like good for them. And then like something happens. And in October, they're just like really sweating it.

And like you said, like the Harris campaign had the added task of having to, you know, basically take over the Joe Biden campaign and then add the Harris people and Obama people on top of it.

I know the Pennsylvania campaign very well. I obviously know and have a lot of sources in Pennsylvania, and they are telling me that the Pennsylvania Harris campaign has a lot of issues. And they sort of range from the typical stuff that you hear about resource allocation and reaching out to voters of color in particular and how the campaign should be working on that more.

To like issues with surrogates and feeling like the surrogate operation is not as good to these sort of more like deeper concerns about like relationships and how like folks on the staff maybe don't understand Philadelphia as well as they should.

I think that what makes this a little unique this time around is just like the intensity of the complaints. I've done this story before and like this time around, you know, for instance, like one of the biggest labor leaders in Pennsylvania was willing to go on the record criticizing the Harris state campaigns manager in Pennsylvania. That's not typically something you see like a few weeks out from the election. And so it just feels like,

just a little bit more, you know, sharper edged, I think this time. Is it because Pennsylvania is just like the state? It's everything. Also, you know, there's the question of like Josh Shapiro's there and Fetterman. So two people that are very different from each other, but also have their own like basis of popularity. I presume they're out there being surrogates. I saw, you know, Josh Shapiro kind of talking about, well, this is all noise. And, you know, is that what they mean by surrogates? Do they mean they don't have enough like

Black male surrogates in Philadelphia who are helping them turn out Black voters? Or like, what is the nature of the complaint? One of the complaints, for instance, was that the Philadelphia mayor, Sherelle Parker, who's a Black woman, she's recently elected, she kind of campaigned on this like tough on crime agenda.

that she hasn't been used enough or effectively. And, you know, that this is a particular concern because Black men are, you know, drifting away from the Democratic Party. But it wasn't limited to that. I mean, other people reached out to me and said, you know, yeah, and, you know, they should be doing, you know, more with Latino surrogates, you know, out in Reading, and they should be doing more with Jewish surrogates out in Pittsburgh. Like,

There seems to be some sense that the surrogate operation in Pennsylvania at least is like a little bit broken. Interesting. This is a special year. I've never seen anything like it. I mean, as somebody who, you know, watches Jeopardy, like the number of ads that I view, it's just unlike anything I've ever seen. And I've lived in Pennsylvania for almost my entire life.

I keep wondering, like, is this what it feels like to be in Iowa during the caucuses? We're always a very important state. But this year, we're the biggest swing state. We're where the candidates are going the most. And we are where the most money has been poured into the states. And so there might be a piece of that going on, too. That's fair. Do you think people in the state are miffed that Josh Shapiro got passed over for vice president?

You know, I've asked some Democrats that. I mean, certainly there was a huge contingent. I mean, most, I think, Pennsylvania Democratic officials wanted him to be chosen, right? And they felt like he could really help Harris carry the state. In fact, some of them got a little bit over their skis. And like, if you remember the beep stakes on that front, but

I actually went to a Shapiro rally for Harris the other day in central Pennsylvania. And one voter really loves, you know, Shapiro. It's why she showed up at the event. But when I asked her, you know, are you upset that he didn't end up being Harris's running mate? She said, you know, he's not really good at being number two. Like, I think that Harris actually made the right decision there. So...

Yeah, that was sort of the rap when he didn't get chosen. So I get it. All right, let's get now to how these voters talked about Donald Trump. Because I think that, you know, one of the things I say all the time, like with my analyst hat on is the biggest coalition in politics is an anti-Trump coalition. And so even when you get people sort of saying the things that they said about Kamala Harris, where it's like a mixed bag, like some people are like affirmatively like her, other people think like it's

some good things, some bad things. Other people are like, I actually don't think she's that great, but this other guy. So let's listen to how these Trump dividing voters talked about Trump.

He's extravagant. He's arrogant. He doesn't know how to capitalize on the good things that he's done. He gets into arguments and scandals that he really shouldn't get involved with. Kamala Harris doesn't have that baggage and that history, although she isn't perfect, although she isn't my ideal, although I think she's lacking in merit.

Trump also is lacking in merit and, shall we say, in accomplishments. I would have to vote for her only because she's the lesser of the two evils. How many people have seen the movie Civil War? Has anybody seen that movie, the new movie out? I'll tell you what, if you watch that movie, you're voting for Harris, period, end of subject. If you get off of this thing and you go watch that movie, it's the best thing that way I can explain it. It is basically about a gentleman who,

Power hungry, smart, brilliant gentleman standing in the beginning. He says, we're, we're, it's the greatest victory of the history of mankind. And I am, I am one of the greatest people that have ever, you know, he's right up here with Trump saying that he's done more for black people than Abraham Lincoln. And, you know, I hear the things that Trump has said. He said, you know, about this 2025, are you serious? Come on folks.

No one gets unmitigated power. No one gets to be a dictator in this country. That's the whole point. Where everything that you guys have wanted, worked for, thought about at night, whether you argue with your husband or not about it, that's gone. Done. Because when a guy can tell you what you're going to do, what you're not going to do, you got a problem. And we haven't been there in this country ever. The reason we started this country with all these people they want to close the borders to is because people didn't want the king telling them what to do.

I mean, it's not much of a choice. I just can't stand Trump at this point. I want someone else to take over. And it's so funny. And for one more, like, how do you stay Republican when you have a guy like J.D. Vance, Trump's roommate, who just flip-flops everywhere? The guy's so smart. J.D. Vance is so smart. Went to Yale. And he's caught in lie after lie after lie after lie. And this is who might actually be our next president because Trump is, what, 78 years old?

Right. I mean, Vance might be the next president. How can you let that guy be the next president? It's impossible. That's my my take. So, yes, Harris it is, I guess. OK, not like overwhelming pro Harris sentiment, but the anti Trump sentiment very strong. And this is the thing I can't let go of in the groups, even the people who are going back to Trump.

They hate Trump. They hate him. And there are people who will hold their nose and vote for him. But like when that many people dislike you so much, this is the thing. I wonder what you think. People called him in 2016 shy Trump voters, right? People who didn't want to tell the pollsters and everything else. I guess my theory of the case right now is that because there is menace that hangs over Trump,

people are a little afraid of the people who are Trump followers, that maybe there's fewer yard signs, fewer people willing to go out and say something, fewer people who are sort of Republicans. They're not out there shouting it from the rooftops. But like, when it came time to vote for Trump and Nikki Haley had already dropped out, but she was still on the ballot. All these people who turned out to vote for her were just like, if I get a chance to vote against this guy, I'm going to vote against this guy.

Do you get the sense at all that there's an undercurrent of that, that maybe the polls aren't picking up? Or am I just wish casting? You can tell me I'm wish casting. I mean, I've certainly heard this theory from Democrats. And, you know, I guess my first thought is just like these areas where people might be afraid to put up a yard sign because it's a red area and they're a Democrat. Like that's always been the case.

Of course, politics has become more vicious and more hot. But like, I don't know that it feels that much different in that way, like as compared to 2016 or 2020. I mean, things were pretty mean in 2016 too, right?

and people had really strong feelings. So I don't know, I'm a little skeptical. But yeah, I want to go back to the people that you just played there. I mean, it just really shows like Trump is the glue that holds the Democratic Party together right now, right? And it raises a really important question, which is if you were a Trump voter in 2016, and you were a Biden voter in 2020, you liked him, you liked the fact that he was fresh and new and was going to shake things up, and he was a businessman. And you liked him,

And then they got to know him and they watched him govern and they hated it. And they voted against him and they voted in many cases against their party, against their identity as a conservative or a moderate. And what would make them vote for him again? You know, I guess you could say inflation and the economy. And of course, that's what Republicans are arguing. And in some cases, that's what's happening. I mean, as you said, some of these

People that you see in focus groups, you know, are like, I hate him, but, you know, I think he's going to be better for my bottom line. But like, are there enough people willing to hold their nose that much? They vote him against him in 2020 after voting for him, they turn against him and they're going to go back to him.

Which leads to, you know, what the Trump campaign is doing in part. And I think that they probably do see the same thing. And that's why they're out there trying to get new voters and infrequent Trump voters, right? They're trying to build the base instead of persuade. Yeah, I mean, that's exactly right. Because this is one of the things that's like, when

When Donald Trump was on TV recently and somebody was like, shouldn't you get Nikki Haley out there as a surrogate? And he was kind of like, look, I'll do what it takes. But also, let me tell you about how bad I beat Nikki Haley and how her campaign sucked. And you're like, this guy's not actually really trying to go for the persuadable center voters. He's not trying to get suburban women back. They've decided those people are gone. And this would be my, if I had to give an analysis on the difference between 2022 and 2024, right? When Trump is not on the ballot,

This is the catch 22 of Trump. Can't live with him, can't live without him. They need him on the ballot to turn out low propensity voters because if you just in a cycle like 2022 off your elections, the non-general elections, the trade that has been made.

between college-educated suburban voters and white non-college voters, right? Democrats have picked up way more of these college-educated suburban voters who vote every election. And so they win those trades in the off years because those people turn out and they vote and you lose those low propensity Trump voters who only come out if Trump's on the ticket. The problem is, is that there's a bunch of low propensity voters on the Democratic side too who

who also only turn out to vote against Donald Trump. And so like he concocts a complicated brew, but I do think that

that one of the reasons that you take the Wisconsin protezoids, like that judicial election up there, where she won, she's relatively progressive, ran on abortion. She won by, I think, 11 points in Wisconsin, which is a big margin. I think part of that is that people who vote in these off-year races tend to be these college-educated suburban voters that are increasingly getting politically realigned into the Democratic Party. What do you think of that theory? Yeah.

Yeah, I think that's right. Absolutely. I mean, there's no doubt that Democrats now have the benefit of having the super voters, like having the highly educated, like more high income voters who turn out in every damn election. And so that gives them an edge in the midterms. But in the presidential election where everyone's got an opinion and Trump is a turnout machine, like we don't know what happens there.

One other comparison, though, that you just made me think of to 2022 with abortion and everything is like these voters in this focus group and so many voters that I've talked to on the trail in Pennsylvania, they say that inflation and prices are their biggest issue. And yet they're

they're voting against Trump because I don't know, is it like character? Is it like just animosity towards it? It's like there is actually a greater issue for them, but it's hard to sort of define. It's just anti-Trumpism, I guess. And pollsters don't typically like ask, is anti-Trumpism your top issue? It sort of reminds me of 2022, where people would

necessarily like rank abortion as their top issue in polling. But if you drilled down and talked to them, they would say that if, you know, someone has what they perceived as too conservative, a policy on abortion, you know, didn't believe in exceptions, that sort of thing, that was a deal breaker for them. It's like Trump is a deal breaker for some voters, even if they see him as better on the economy and other issues. First of all, you've just said two things in here that are a

A hundred percent true, which is I try to explain to people all the time, like, OK, but what is it about Trump or whatever? And I'm like, he's a jerk. That is the thing. They think he's a jerk and they don't like it. And like, that's their main motivating core thing. It's not about this issue or that issue. I mean, one of the women here was talking about.

the fact that when she voted for Trump the first time, she didn't have kids. And so she just made this vote based on, well, take a flyer on this game show host who's not a regular politician. And now she has kids. And she's like, I don't know how to explain this guy to my kids. Like, he's just the worst. And I'm trying to teach these young people how to be good, decent people. And I can't have this. And you're like, yeah. But the point about abortion, too, I don't know that anybody brought up reproductive rights, but

If you bring up reproductive rights, people get very animated, very motivated. That's where you can drive an issue and drive salience that move things in your direction, even when they're not coming out in the polling. Like if you just look and see what people are affirmatively giving you, I think you miss a big part of the story about what could be motivating to voters if you put it in their minds as a top issue.

Well, and what do you see the Harris campaign closing with? You know, it's abortion. Yeah. And like anti-Trump, right? That's right. Going out there with Liz Cheney and talking about January 6th.

Yeah. Okay. I just want to ask about J.D. Vance really quickly, because the campaign had said, the Trump campaign had been like, oh, we're just going to park J.D. Vance here in Pennsylvania. That has not been what they've done. Is that because J.D. Vance became a bit of a liability in Pennsylvania? Tell me about, you know, you wrote your Dems and Disarray piece, but tell me about the Trump ground game. How's their campaign faring?

Yeah, I mean, Republicans are definitely really anxious about Trump's ground game here in Pennsylvania. He has effectively outsourced it right to these groups, partly Elon Musk's group. I think it's probably the like sort of worst example of that where, you know, they've had a bunch of issues. There have been a number of reports in the last few weeks about how they might not be

reaching voters the way that they hope to. But Trump has sort of outsourced it to these other conservative groups too. And it's just, it's caused a lot of infighting because state parties are used to doing this stuff. County parties are used to doing it up in Erie, like Republicans are tearing each other apart over this. And so it's created, you know, just sort of frustration and infighting. And at the end of the day, like some Republicans are just wondering, okay, like, but

Is there a serious ground game here? And so the other factor when it comes to like the Dems and disarray stuff in Pennsylvania is, well, it matters like what your opponent is doing, too. So your operation might not be great, but is your opponents even worse? And like, I think that's what some Democrats in Pennsylvania are banking on here.

Yeah, interesting. All right, I want to turn to the Senate race. Belatedly, I should have gotten to this sooner. So the incumbent is Democratic Senator Bob Casey, who's facing Republican candidate Dave McCormick, also known as the hedge fund guy who ran in 2022 and lost the primary to Dr. Oz by about 900 votes.

So the Casey name has been a fixture in Pennsylvania since the 80s when Bob Casey Sr. was governor and Jr. here defeated my old traveling companion, Rick Santorum, in 2006 for that Senate seat.

So far in 2024, this is looking like the narrowest of any of Casey's races. His previous closest race, which is in 2012, he still won that by nine points. This time in the 538 average, he's leading by about half that. And the gap does seem to be shrinking a little bit, but not because McCormick is running a specially strong campaign, but it felt maybe like

I've heard this in some other states where there's just like kind of an anti-incumbency feel to some of it, like he's been there a long time. So let's listen to what these Trump divided voters in Pennsylvania had to say about Casey. Bob Casey, he says and does whatever he thinks are going to get him votes. So both of them, I mean, I'm not thrilled with them. I'm often surprised in these situations. Both of them.

both in this case and in the presidential situation, as to is this really the best that America has to offer? I mean, you can't find someone who is better, more qualified, more competent, more engaging, more endearing that we could elect to this position. But

But I'm really not thrilled with either one of them. I think both of them, they have their eye on the prize and they're not going to let little things like the truth or, shall we say, personal conscience or morality to get in the way of where they want to go. I never liked Bob Casey. He's been the senator for 18 years. Before that, he was auditor general for eight years.

And then he was treasurer for four years, whatever, his entire adult life in public service. But all I see from him, I think 95% of the ads is how McCormick is from Connecticut. Okay. I mean, maybe he lives in Connecticut now. I don't know. And I don't care. But if that's all I'm seeing from you, when he's been in the Senate for 18 years, he's

I'm 35, but apparently everyone had a really positive impression of his dad. And I think that he got to where he is and he remains where he is living off his dad's legacy. So, I mean, if Casey can't be churning out commercials of here's what I've done for 40 years, it's very unlikely I vote for him.

I'd like to get back to some honesty. I don't know how honest Bob Casey is. I'm just not that well versed on it. But I will say that if I feel that the divisiveness of the Republican Party, the extremists, they're so outlandish. They say so many outlandish things and it's you're using so much strategy to try to achieve that goal. I'd like to see the Republicans just lose in the hopes that they'll try to restructure as something more honest the next time around.

So if it's going to be that simple, if we're in the muck right now and we got to let some Democrats hold office, even though I'm not necessarily pro-Democrat,

I'm just fed up with the commercials. Like everything's so negative. I don't know a single positive thing about either candidate. And with Bob Casey having been in office for how long, I can't tell you a single thing that he has done. And knowing that he's been in office for so long, the fact that not one of his ads or like his funds for his campaign are going to like

remind people of things that he's done and things that he's been successful at is problematic for me. But again, it is the lesser of two evils and it is more of a tactical vote. And I feel like my entire opinion of both of them has been completely swayed by their just attack campaigns on each other. And it's just a matter of which one is more convincing to me that they're not as bad as the other one. One thing to keep in mind is long career and a lot of good things have happened, like everyone said.

Not a lot of bad things have happened. Got to keep that in mind. And if you look back over the two careers and he's way out to bad stuff, you know, there's the risk there is if we do have Casey there again, okay, he's probably not going to do nothing great. However, there's a good chance nothing bad is going to happen. If we go the other way, there's a real good chance some bad things can happen here real quick.

Like if Bob Casey has this amazing resume of things that he has done, where is that? Like, let's talk about that stuff. Like convince me that you're the right person to be in this office because of the longevity of your career, not because this guy needed to live in a different location and chose to stay there until his kids finished high school. Like, I don't know. I'm not impressed by either of them. It is very representative though of Trump and Biden. Like just really reminds me of 2020 all over again, but in the Senate. Yeah.

Okay, warning signs for Bob Casey. Tell me where you think things stand in this Senate race. Yeah, so I mean, both Democratic and Republican internal polls show it's getting close, right? I mean, I have been hearing that for a while here. So I think that is real. And a lot of people are starting to ask, like, is Casey really in trouble?

I mean, it seems almost crazy to say in Pennsylvania, the guy is like political royalty, right? You know, all of those people on the focus group said he's been in office for many, many years. His dad was governor and was beloved. Like Bob Casey overperformed Obama in 2012. Like how could somebody like that like actually be in trouble? But everybody pretty much agrees that the polls are getting closer. I think part of that is the money.

David McCormick and his allies have just dumped like an enormous amount of negative ads on Casey and he's starting to feel it. I think that some of his messages are resonating, you know, the sort of tying him to some of the inflation, some of the immigration stuff. I think that, um,

As you heard there from the focus groupers, there's an anti-incumbency thing going on. They're sort of like just unimpressed with his record and think that he should have done a bit more. We're sort of seeing that like across the world, really, right? It's like this backlash against politicians. And I wonder if people feel like

Like some of those voters are voting for McCormick, right? They said that they would vote for him, even though it was only a couple of them. But still, these are people that are, you know, also voting for Harris. And so I wonder if like they feel like they have to sort of express some of that anti-incumbency and neither Trump nor Harris is like a true fresh face. And so like this is their way to do it.

Another thing that stuck out to me, you know, one of those guys in the focus group said, like, I didn't know his dad. I guess his dad was like governor or something. But like, I don't know, like I'm in my 30s, like whatever. That doesn't mean much to me. Like, I wonder if just like Casey has, of course, been benefiting from the image of his father. I mean, especially among older voters in places like northeastern Pennsylvania where the Casey family hails.

And I wonder if just like enough time has passed now, like we're all getting older and like not as many people know who Robert Casey is anymore. Right. Like that doesn't necessarily mean anything to them anymore. And so maybe like we're seeing a little bit of that too. But at the end of the day, most of those people in the focus group did say that they were going to vote for Casey, even though they do not have like a ton of warm feelings about him.

And a lot of it was like anti-Trumpism, right? Like they sort of tied McCormick back to Trump. Yeah. And people don't want to give Trump another Senate seat. Like you hear people in Maryland talk about, I like Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan's great. Thought he was a great governor. Will not give Trump another Senate seat. Like that's sort of like the ballgame for them. But I was just in Nevada and there was like an anti-incumbency thing for Jackie Rosen too that I was hearing where it was just kind of like,

I don't know much about her, but she's been there for such a long time. I'm just hearing a lot of that. Been there for such a long time. In a way where incumbency used to be a benefit, it gets you a name ID, but people are very like, what have you done for me lately? What's your record? I think your point about...

Like he was like a nepo baby politician. And now it's like, I don't remember why that was supposed to be a big deal or why they're supposed to like him. And so they look up and what has he done? I don't know anything that he's done. The flip side of that was like what that one guy articulated, which I feel like is partly like why Casey has been reelected so many times is like,

well yeah but he hasn't done a lot of bad things either no harm no foul no harm no foul that's sort of like the Casey slogan it's like haven't done bad things either like that's like the whole case for Casey I feel like

Okay, well, I want to wrap up with Dave McCormick because he's been sort of the great normie hope of GOP strategists everywhere. It's like Glenn Youngkin were a Steelers fan, right? That's what they think this guy is. And he also, like you said, he's had the personal means to fund his own campaign in a state as expensive as Pennsylvania. Man, he made a lot of money on that Christmas tree farm. I'm going to get into that business too. But the voters, they don't love him either.

Yeah, let's listen. I think McCormick is following the Republican Party line. I think that he doesn't separate himself from Trump. He doesn't say, well, this is what distinguishes me as an individual from Trump. He just follows the party line. He's so extreme with his values. I don't understand why he wants to be so extreme. It's kind of the same thing with Trump.

God, everybody really liked him in 16. Why couldn't he stay on a program of being likable? He's so dislikable. McCormick is so unlikable. I don't get it. I don't get how they think that that creates votes. They're despicable people. Yeah, for me, it's about McCormick being so very extreme on politics.

what he would allow for women, like if they needed abortions. Just because you're pro-choice doesn't mean you're saying, everyone go out there and just recklessly have sex and then you can have abortions. Like it's about back to choice and personal empowerment and personal individuality. And I feel very strongly about this coming from a culture where women did not have any rights to

And so it's very important for me for women to have the chance, the opportunity, the ability to be trusted to make their own choices. And it just really strikes me as important.

this severity of just saying this black and white thinking of being like, it's nothing, nothing. We're not allowing anything regardless of rape. Or like, if you have an ectopic pregnancy, nothing outside of this. And again, that black and white thinking that's a trigger for me. So Bob Casey, I'm not huge fan, but like, we got to let the ladies, we got to let

You know, the half of our population have a right. What worries me about McCormick, what other people said, is that he reminds me a lot of Trump and he's going right along with Trump, which is a big problem for me. You know, his ads resonate with me because I've lived half my life in central Pennsylvania, half my life in Pittsburgh. So him coming from Bloomsburg, close to where I grew up, I don't see a lot of statewide candidates from that area.

And I've seen some of his ads where his business created, you know, a lot of jobs in the Pittsburgh area. The other thing that they say over and over and over again is he's a hedge fund manager. Sometimes with certain stuff, I feel like they're alike because I feel like, you know,

I don't listen to everything, but I was really trying to hear their thoughts about immigration and their thoughts about a few other things. And they were kind of saying the same thing, but I feel like that McCormick tries to go for the shock value for trying to be so hardcore. I think kind of just saying what he thinks people want to hear. I don't even know if he... I feel like it's all a game. And so I feel like for me, it's kind of like the lesser of two evils, to be honest.

That's our two evils. You got it again. Okay, so you noted this before. There were, interestingly, two Harris-McCormick voters in this group, though polling suggests the existence of slightly more Trump-Casey voters. So if you think back to the start of this cycle, some Republicans were worried about Doug Mastriano jumping into the race, right? He ran for governor, got smoked by Josh Shapiro by like 14 points.

How have Republicans in the state felt about the campaign McCormick has run, right? Do they think he's executing the normie playbook well, or what do they think of him? I think they feel pretty great. I mean, yeah, they were afraid they were going to have Mastriano running, which would have like brought down, you know, in their minds, the entire ticket from Trump down on to like the Congress members and state legislators, et cetera. So even in the worst case scenario for them, like McCormick,

Right.

I think that what those focus groupers show is that despite all of that, like he isn't running in 2014 and it's the Trump era. And so he's getting dragged down by Trump and also by Dobbs, right? I mean, you heard so many people in that focus group say,

compare him to Trump, even though, you know, if you just listen to him, like his affect is not Trump-like, right? I always call this pastor Mitt Romney in the streets, Trump in the sheets, but yeah. Yeah. Like, I mean, policy is like a different thing. And obviously that's also what they're tying to him. Right. But like,

I think that in the Trump era, these suburban dad candidates are just struggling a little bit and running up against the fact that that image just doesn't comport with also hugging Trump. And on top of that, you've got Dobbs. So you're trying to run as a reasonable moderate in the suburbs, but a lot of voters feel like

If you don't support abortion rights, then you're not being reasonable. So it speaks to the challenge of like the GOP. They have to figure out a new model in this post-Obs Trump world. So I'm going to do, as we close, the worst thing to you that people do to me. Just like, what's your gut say about PA? No, no, don't do this to me. Yeah.

I'm not ready to make that prediction publicly. I'm just kidding. Okay. I don't think I'm allowed to legally by my employer. Oh, yeah.

Oh, yeah, that's probably true. That's an unfair question. I go ahead and make the prediction because I'm my own employer, and so nobody can get mad at me. It's good to be your own boss. Yeah, it is. I will say it cheered me up to do this focus group. The fact that it was a clean sweep for Harris, despite the reservations, the fact that they were very authentically aggravated by the same things that a lot of these swing voters are aggravated by, but just under no circumstances were going back to Trump. You know, Pennsylvania's always liked...

It's moderates. You know, it elects a lot of pro-life Democrats, and it doesn't like extreme candidates. And so I think that I would be very surprised if Pennsylvania backslid enough to reelect Donald Trump. And I...

I think that the fact that people dislike Trump so much, I don't know, we'll just see in the final analysis, but I still think there's a lot of non-college white women in Pennsylvania who are going to vote for Kamala Harris at margins that really do overshadow what that same voting demographic did in 2020. And it's going to be because of Dobbs and because they're sick of Trump. That's my thought.

Yeah, I mean, I think that you're spot on about the fact that Pennsylvania likes its moderates and likes its pro-life Democrats or pro-choice Republicans. They like these...

Sort of mavericks too, in a way, sort of maverick moderates. I'm coining that, but no, like I, I think that that's why you see the Trump campaign, you know, spending tons of money on ads, painting Harris as a far left radical and a lot of, you know, whether she's successful is gonna turn on this question of whether voters see her more as that picture or more as moderate. And then the sort of wild card is like, are there,

hidden Trump voters out there who, you know, are being turned out who don't normally vote, right? Like, is Trump able to expand the base? That's how he can win. Yeah.

Well, because I got sort of asked and just it was like a crazy thing for me to moderate this discussion between Kamala Harris and Liz Cheney there in Pennsylvania earlier this week. I will say, man, she's doing everything she can to make this pitch to those center right voters who are disaffected Republicans. Like she is traveling around with Liz Cheney. You know, they're trying to find unhappy Republicans like me. They are making a pitch to these undecided voters that she is not disaffected.

a San Francisco progressive, that she is a moderate that can be trusted. So we'll see if that lands.

Okay, Holly Otterbein, thank you so much for joining us. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the Focus Group podcast. Remember to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts. Subscribe to The Bulwark on YouTube and become a Bulwark Plus member at thebulwark.com. We'll be back next week with our last show before the election. So stay tuned and everybody be okay. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.

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