Will 2024 Be A Disputed Election?

2024/10/30

FiveThirtyEight Politics

AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript

Larry Norden: 本期节目讨论了2024年美国大选可能面临的挑战，包括选举结果公布时间、虚假信息传播、选举诉讼以及对选举官员的威胁等。他认为，与2020年相比，各州在处理选举认证问题上更加成熟，计票速度也可能更快。然而，如果选举结果非常接近，选举之夜可能无法公布最终结果。此外，他指出，大量诉讼的目的是为了放大阴谋论，制造混乱，而非真正赢得诉讼。他还谈到了对选举官员的威胁日益增高，以及各方为应对威胁所做的准备。最后，他分析了关于选举的虚假信息，并强调了确保选举结果准确和安全的重要性。 Galen Druk: 本期节目主要关注2024年美国大选可能出现争议的几个方面，特别是与2020年大选相比，选举结果公布时间、虚假信息传播、选举诉讼以及对选举官员的威胁等方面可能出现的情况。他回顾了2020年大选后发生的事件，并探讨了这些因素在2024年大选中可能扮演的角色。他还就美国分散的选举制度、选举结果公布的理想目标、以及如何确保只有合格的选民才能投票等问题与Larry Norden进行了深入探讨。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why might the 2024 election results take longer to project compared to previous elections?

Close races, high mail ballot counts, and state rules delaying processing contribute to extended counting times.

Why are some states slower in counting mail ballots?

State laws prohibit processing mail ballots before Election Day, which includes security checks.

Why is there more litigation around the 2024 election compared to previous ones?

Litigation aims to amplify conspiracy theories, create chaos, and challenge ballots post-election.

What are the primary reasons for the increased threats against election officials?

Misinformation and lies about election integrity, often spread by influential figures, fuel distrust and threats.

How do states ensure only eligible voters cast ballots?

Voter registration requires a sworn statement of citizenship, and multiple systems verify eligibility.

What changes have been made to the Electoral Count Reform Act since 2020?

The Act sets a certification deadline, specifies the governor as the elector certifier, and raises the threshold for objections.

What are the main categories of false information circulating about the 2024 election?

False information includes claims about ineligible voters, rigged technology, and corrupt election workers.

How has the threat environment for election officials evolved since 2020?

Threats have increased due to heightened misinformation, but preparation and cooperation with law enforcement have improved.

What are the key factors making the U.S. election system more robust in 2024?

Increased use of paper ballots, better cooperation with law enforcement, and legal precedents set by courts.

Chapters

The discussion focuses on the factors influencing the timing of election results, including the closeness of the election, the number of mail ballots, and state-specific rules governing ballot processing.

Election results depend heavily on how close the election is and the number of mail ballots.
States like Michigan have made changes to count ballots more quickly, but close elections will still take time.
Processing mail ballots involves security checks, which can delay the counting process.

Shownotes Transcript

Looking back on the 2020 election, the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day stands out as one of the most fraught and uncertain in recent American history. Will 2024 follow a similar path? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, to provide a clearer picture of what we might expect after Election Day. They discuss when results could be expected, the types of misinformation that may circulate after the votes are cast, and why this election is seeing more litigation than any before it.

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