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We're going to try to make this as close to live to tape as possible. We'll see how it goes. From your mouth to God's ears, Galen. From your mouth to God's AirPods. ♪
Hello and welcome to this late night reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast. We have just wrapped up night four of the Republican National Convention. I am back in my hotel in Milwaukee, and I'm joined by some colleagues, senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich. Hello, Nathaniel. Welcome. Hey, Galen. Good morning.
Good morning, indeed. It's pretty late. That was a pretty long speech. We'll get into it. A little bit. It was longer than a couple of Oscar Best Picture winners. So, yeah. Also here with us is politics reporter Kaylee Rogers. Welcome to the podcast, Kaylee. Thank you. Good to be here. All right. So to state the obvious, that was...
a really freaking long speech. From a data perspective, it was the longest speech. I'm talking about Donald Trump's acceptance of the nomination. Oh, you weren't talking about Hulk Hogan speech? Yeah, it was the longest speech in televised convention history. I was sitting in the bowl. And boy, could you tell it was I was texting Nathaniel a bit throughout. But people
People started leaving. I would say having sat through a lot of the speeches, they were really tight. They were really on message. And the applause was super enthusiastic for a lot of the other speakers in a way that it ultimately didn't end up being for Trump because that speech just went on and on. And you could tell that he was going off teleprompter. I mean, probably at home you could tell, but yes,
You could also tell because we had the prepared remarks. So it was really not what was scripted. The beginning part was it was pretty, I mean, notable. Obviously, he was talking about an assassination attempt. That's serious stuff. That's powerful stuff. But then it went in a very different direction. That was my experience in the bowl.
Kayleigh and Nathaniel, I'm curious about your experience at home. I was just going to say, I'm guessing worse because we didn't have the benefit of the energy of a crowd around us. And ultimately, it wasn't an unusual speech for Trump by any means as far as the way he was speaking and what he was talking about.
But there was so much made of him coming out tonight, having a different kind of message, a different kind of candidate, a different kind of Trump. You know, he said basically he threw his speech away and wrote a new one. And we were all expecting that. And the first chunk really was quite different and was sort of a more traditional candidate speech. And there was a lot of talk of unity. And then it just kind of...
Went off the rails and turned into classic Trump. We got some real hits. We got Victor Orban. We got the late, great Hannibal Lecter. We got the China virus. We got Democrats are...
not fierce about anything except for stealing elections. All that was very Trumpy. Obviously, all the stuff about, you know, he's a changed man now did not turn out to be the case. Big surprise. Donald Trump is the same guy he's been for nine years now. Yeah. To folks who have been listening along at home, I don't think the message of our coverage of the RNC so far has been that Trump is
is a changed man. It's that they have played politics very well. The people who have vetted all of these speeches and decided who would speak in prime time and whatnot understands median voter theorem and understands what it means to make strong political appeals to the American public.
Now, I don't know, people talk about Donald Trump having political genius or something along those lines. Obviously, the Republican Party has not done well on his watch apart from one single election in 2016. But, you know, from everything I understand about politics, that was not a good primetime appeal to the median American voter. Well, and it wasn't just his speech either, I think. I think in general, this night was by far the weakest of the four nights of the convention. They had...
I tweeted this, but basically like it felt like the first three nights, particularly nights two and three, I thought were just like designed in a lab for the median voter poll tested exactly what you want when you're Republicans trying to put their best foot forward. Whereas tonight just felt like it was put together by Donald Trump.
to have a bunch of his friends say nice things about him. And like, that was the theme of the evening was his personal touch and like personal anecdotes and stuff like that. But like, we got two people talking about golf, which I just can't imagine that a lot of Americans care about.
we had Tucker Carlson in a fairly prominent speaking spot. It was like approaching the nine o'clock hour. So I think dangerously close to prime time. And he was completely off script. He did not go on the teleprompter at all. He was bringing a lot of the conspiracy theories and kind of red meat rhetoric that we have talked about some of the like
early speakers like the very beginnings of the night on Monday and Tuesday who were somewhat out there but were basically shielded from primetime when a lot of the more softer messaging and swing voter stuff came on. But Tucker Carlson was getting pretty close to a time when people were actually watching the speech. And so I thought that was notable. And then, yeah, kind of concluding with Trump, which was just this very bizarre moment
basically two speeches, one speech about the assassination that was very good, and then one much longer speech that was pretty rambly.
Yeah, I mean, it was like two speeches, but also the second speech was like three speeches in one. Just the length and breadth and depth. Actually, maybe not depth. Breadth and length. Yeah, it's notable that the sort of changed man thing was always going to be short-lived, right? But it was an opportunity to get...
speaking time in front of an American public that was newly open to hearing a message from Trump, right? Like what happened last Saturday was a big deal. You know, it was a big deal for Donald Trump and for the nation. And I think a lot of people were curious what he had to say after that. And he opened the speech tonight by saying,
I'm not going to be the president for half of America. I'm going to be the president for all of America, which is something that probably a lot of people around him, a lot of people who understand politics have wanted him to say for a very long time, but not something he says. Right. So he says that. And then he talks about he says, I'm only going to tell the story once because it's so painful. And he goes moment by moment by moment what he went through on Saturday from, you
standing up, starting to speak, to down on his knees, to getting pulled out by Secret Service.
And he goes over and I couldn't see because I was on the opposite side of the fireman's fatigue, if that's what you call it, gear. And it looked like he's kissed the helmet of the of the officer of the firefighter who was killed when he was laying on top of his family. This is all very serious stuff. This is all also the kinds of stuff that.
You can use politically to make emotional appeals to people. And the American public was very open to this. And look, you could hear a pin drop in the arena when all of this was happening and the lighting was low. And I mean, it was it was pretty remarkable. And then that moment just stops and it goes to not even like a tightly scripted Donald Trump stump speech, but
Just an off the rails Donald Trump stump speech that felt I one person put it like this on Twitter to my non-Jewish friends. This is what Passover feels like. I would echo that sentiment. How is this speech different from all other speeches? Yeah, no, it was remarkable. And I mean, I said I said this to Kaylee yesterday.
He should have stopped after the first quote unquote speech, right? If he had said, I'm running to be president for all Americans, this is what it was like to get shot at. It was crazy. Let's all come together. Kumbaya the end.
It would have been such a powerful speech. Everybody would have been completely abuzz about like, oh, he is a changed man. Like this was so different. There would have been breathless coverage. It would have been so good for him. It would have been a huge power move as like the candidate who is leading in the polls right now, like just totally exuding confidence. Like I don't need to talk about how bad Joe Biden is because a people have been doing it for the last three and a half nights, but also it's self-evident and the Democrats are exploding.
It would have been really, really savvy to do that, but he just couldn't help himself. Yeah, it would have been a total mic drop moment. And that first speech, if we're delineating between the two, was...
really well written. He did a great job delivering it. It was very powerful, emotional. Like, it reminds you of the humanity of these candidates, you know, behind all the rhetoric and the boistering nonsense. Like, this is a person who was inches away from losing his life. And that's, I'm assuming, very scary. He did a great job capturing that. And as you say, kind of using it as a part of his
campaigning to talk about unity and to talk about feeling even more renewed in his dedication to wanting to lead the country. Like, what a great message. Wonderful. Like, end it there. There's plenty of time to go over, like, continue attacking Biden, to go over policy and platform points. Like, we got months to go. That would have been such a power move to just end it there. And again, it's not like he doesn't have clear plans
policies to run on that are popular with the American public. He just doesn't do that great of a job of presenting them to your median voter. Some folks were saying like, oh, the funniest thing that Joe Biden could do is to drop out of the 2024 race at 9 p.m. Eastern tonight. Obviously, he didn't need to do that. Trump sort of
sabotaged himself in a way. And we will get to Biden momentarily or a little later, because that now seems like the most salient news. But I want to do something that we do from time to time when big news happens. I'm going to read the headlines from several news outlets. And I'm curious for your thoughts on whether they capture the night who best captures the night. So we have
New York Times, Trump describes a U.S. in distress and says he is the solution. Okay. Wall Street Journal, Trump accepts third GOP nomination for president. He recounts the shooting at the rally.
Washington Post. Trump accepts GOP nomination in lengthy speech. The former president makes assertions about immigration 2020 election amid nod to unify after assassination attempt. So our first mention of the length. I think the WAPO one was good. The best of the three you said so far. I feel like the WSJ one, they like had to put the paper to bed early or something. Yeah, exactly. The rest of the speech. Yeah.
Fox News, Trump's sober recollection of assassination attempt during RNC rally. I shouldn't be here. And then they also quote, I had God on my side. Yeah, that I mean, reflecting on the first part of the speech, he said, I shouldn't be here. And the whole crowd started chanting. Yes, you should. OK, next CNN. Here's the here's the zinger. Top Biden officials believe he must drop out.
So on the night that Trump accepts the Republican nomination for the third time, the top story at CNN is about Joe Biden.
Before I take the bait, is there anything else that we want to say here? I should say, you know, we try to use data. We can use data. The speech was 93 minutes long. It was really freaking long. But is there anything else that we want to say before we move on to Biden? Overall, as we talked about last night, I think Republicans had a generally successful convention that was on message, I think.
Tonight was a dud. We'll see how much that matters compared to the first three nights and, frankly, all the Biden news, which looks like it may be about to swamp everything else.
But yeah, we'll be on the lookout for that convention bounce that candidates often get. Which is what, like two points? Yeah, I mean, it's been getting less and less, obviously, in our polarized time. And given the special circumstances with Biden, I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't one this time around. But we should keep an eye on one, obviously, since the debate started.
Trump has gained in the polls. It wouldn't be surprising after the assassination attempt and now the RNC, if he continues to gain, that, of course, is going to in turn put more pressure on Biden to step aside, even though presumably at least the convention bounce gain will probably be temporary, if not the other two as well. So a lot going on that is difficult to disentangle. But in general, yes, I think tonight, notwithstanding successful Republican convention, will it matter? Probably not. We'll see.
I mean, it's interesting, too, because while all the Biden coverage is kind of eclipsing the end of the RNC, it's not good coverage for Biden either. So there's a chance that that could also be positive for the Trump campaign in the end. Yeah, I mean, there's a very real possibility, as I think we're about to talk about, that
Joe Biden drops out, say, this weekend, and then the next month straight is all about Democrats and Kamala Harris, which is probably ultimately good for them, culminating in her nomination at the DNC. So we shall see.
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Nathaniel, the one who's been beating the drum of Biden staying in the race, just describes the next month of the news cycle that culminates in Kamala Harris accepting the nomination in Chicago. How does that feel, Nathaniel? I think I'm there. It feels crazy. It feels surreal. I mean, I remember saying after our debate, the debate podcast that night, like,
this is going to be it. If there is the chance of the West Wing scenario happening, this is what it's going to be. Watch the next few weeks closely, and it looks like it is happening. And I think today was really what kind of tipped me over. You've had lots of news reports, some of which I think were more credible than others, talking about Biden potentially softening his opposition to dropping out. You have Barack Obama reportedly being involved now. You've had basically a
I think multiple reporters basically saying that at least their sources believe we're in the end game now. And, and,
Yeah, like if the attempt to assassination of a former president and the new vice presidential candidate on the Republican side and the Republican National Convention couldn't stop this train, it seems like the train's not going to stop. So I am officially now I do think that if Biden survives, I will be surprised. Like we're living through history right now. And now Biden has COVID. He's like at home recovering. He's off the campaign trail. It seems like
His most close inner circle is really like having their serious talks with him at this point. And like Nathaniel said, if it's going to happen, this is when it's going to happen. Like I'm also on the same. I'm buying. I'm drinking the Kool-Aid. I think that he's probably going to drop out. It certainly seems like that based on the reporting. But even if he doesn't, because we still don't know for sure, obviously, he's
What a remarkable few weeks for electoral politics in America. Like, we've had so much unprecedented times in the last four years. I think we've become a little numb to it. But when you step back and look at what's been happening, it is incredible.
Unreal. It's surreal. Yeah, I think it hit me. I mean, I will say for the record at 9.08 p.m. Eastern on the night of the debate, I slacked the producers of the show and I said, is Biden getting replaced? I have the receipts. You can ask Cameron, who's in the control in the virtual control room right now. I mean, from kind of the moment he opened his mouth that night, I was shocked.
kind of taken aback and thought that him being replaced would be a real possibility. But I think the moment that crystallized it for me was I was on air with ABC earlier today from the convention hall, and it was in the middle of the afternoon, and Kamala Harris was giving a campaign speech in Fayetteville, North Carolina, that oftentimes when she goes out, she's talking about abortion and making, you know, appeals that are mostly boosting Joe Biden. Yeah.
And she gave what basically sounded like a top of the ticket campaign speech, basically arguing that folks shouldn't pay attention to what they're hearing at the RNC. They should pay attention to what Republicans who are in power are doing. And I sent it to you guys and I said, watch this or pay attention to the speech because I want to ask you about it tonight. Did you and did you have thoughts?
I agree. There was something different about this speech, not only in the content of what she was talking about, as you mentioned, but also like, and this is kind of like woo woo, but just the energy of it, it felt like a different vibe, like something had shifted there. I mean, she probably knows that she's basically auditioning at this point. And so maybe she's kicking it into a higher gear. So at this time next week, are we going to be talking about who Kamala Harris is considering as her running mate?
Very possibly. You know, I'm so mad because I'm going on vacation next week. So definitely around to analyze it. Right. Exactly. I mean, that basically guarantees it's going to happen next week. So enjoy, guys. Well, I'm going on vacation the week after. So I know. Hmm. So who does the universe hate more? Yeah, it's pretty remarkable. And from a data perspective, I know it's late, but we can always bring some data to the table and
I know we talked about maybe Kamala Harris was performing a little bit better than Biden a few weeks ago when more polls first started coming out. Do we have anything updated on that? You know, I haven't seen anything updated, but I just think philosophically, like it's a whole different ballgame, right? When she is actually if and when she's actually the candidate versus right now, and it's hypothetical and people just kind of want Biden out and it's easy to project.
in some ways, she is generic Democrat, right, at this point, which, of course, we talk about when you see a poll of generic Democrat versus Donald Trump or generic Democrat versus generic Republican. It enables people to project onto that candidate all the qualities they want. And for one voter, it's going to be different from what another voter wants in that candidate. And so to some extent, that's what Harris is right now. But as soon as she becomes the candidate, if that is indeed what happens,
the tone is going to shift, people are going to see her differently. And I think that, you know, the polls may not end up looking that different, because generally speaking, people are obviously quite polarized. But I think that right now, those hypothetical polls are measuring a situation that is obviously hypothetical and non existent. And so I
I just am not sure they are telling us much right now. And that goes into the broader conversation about how dangerous it is to use polls to try to make this decision when they aren't designed for that. And they certainly don't have the precision to let you do that. Wait, what do you mean they aren't designed for that?
polls aren't I know that obviously politicians like to use polls to guide their decisions and stuff like that, but like Especially when you're talking about Oh like is Kamala Harris gonna be worth one or two points more than Joe Biden, right? This isn't like broadly speaking Should I come out in favor of marijuana legalization? It's something that two-thirds of American support. That's pretty unambiguous, right? I
or even like what campaigns use polls for, which is testing messaging. Oh, if I emphasize my tough on crime background, I gain 10 points once that bio piece is read versus if I talk about my stance on abortion, I only gain three points or whatever. This is because it is you're testing a real thing versus a hypothetical thing. And because the differences are so small within the margin of error, I think it is something that unfortunately,
data cannot provide a definite answer to, and that's uncomfortable for Democrats, obviously, but you have to make an assessment that is largely theoretical. And yeah, that's uncomfortable, but... Well, also, maybe they're not making an assessment based on electability. They might also just be making an assessment based on who should govern or who they think can govern for four years. Exactly. Absolutely. Nobody knows the right answer here. And...
It looks like it's heading in one direction. That's just the momentum of it. And we're going to find out, I guess. But we won't find out because nobody will be able to test the counterfactual. So, yeah, it's a fascinating time. Is there precedent for this? There's certainly not like modern precedent for this, but. Not for training horses midstream. Yeah. So like it's not even like we can compare like, oh, the last time this happened, this is how things went. It's a complete unknown.
stepping into the abyss through the looking glass and maybe that will be the subject of our next podcast not saying it's guaranteed just saying it could be with that we are closing out our nightly podcasts at the republican national convention thank you kaylee thank you nathaniel
Thanks, Galen. Get some sleep. Good night, Galen. Sleep tight. I definitely got to get some sleep. My name is Galen Drueg, our producers are Shane McKeon and Cameron Tretavian, and our intern is Jayla Everett. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast.538.com. You can also, of course, tweet at us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple Podcast Store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening, and we'll see you soon.
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