The Obamas Dominate Night 2 Of The DNC
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What would you want your song to be to the DJ if you were doing the virtual roll call? Because I have a lot of thoughts about that playlist. Over the River and Through the Woods was written by a woman who lived in the town I lived in growing up. Okay. So Nathaniel will be awarding. That would be my walk-off song. All right. All right. Yeah. Yeah.

Hello and welcome to this late night DNC reaction edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. I'm Galen Druk, and it's just a little bit past midnight Eastern on Tuesday night. The theme for the evening was a bold vision for America's future. But of course, the real theme of the evening was the Obamas.

Michelle and Barack Obama were the keynote speakers and definitely brought down the House. We also heard from a lot of other heavyweights in the Democratic Party. We heard from Bernie Sanders. We heard from Tammy Duckworth. We heard from the second gentleman, Doug Emhoff. And we also have some folks on hand who experienced it in person.

So here with me this evening is senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich. Nathaniel is on the floor of the Democratic National Convention as we speak. In case you hear some background noise, Nathaniel, welcome to the podcast. Hey, Galen. Thank you for having me. Yeah, it's it's super cool. I gotta say like this is a very like

earnest moment for me as a political nerd. If people aren't watching the video part of the podcast, I recommend it because it's cool behind me. You can see the stage. And it's just neat to be in here with all the funny hats and the signs and these politicians who obviously we've been following and watching through screens for so long. It's cool for a blogger like me. And this is your first convention, right? Yeah. So it's my first convention that I have

covered. I actually attended one day of the 2004 DNC. Well, so it was actually the day that Barack Obama spoke, gave his big famous keynote address. But I wasn't there in the evening. I was just there during the day and like was able to walk around the floor a little bit. But that's where I got my mac and cheese box that is in the background of my podcasts, the 2004 Democratic one. And then I bought the Republican one on eBay.

All right. Well, thank you for that little history lesson. I enjoy your enthusiasm for your first convention. Also here with us this evening is ABC politics reporter Brittany Shepard. Welcome to the podcast, Brittany. You are also joining from Chicago, but you are back in your hotel room safe and sound.

Yes, I am. I know it's such a riveting background, like Nathaniel here reporting from the front lines of just, you know, a little bit far away from the United Center, but it's been really, really exciting. I don't have quite a lore dump.

like Nathaniel of a connection to the DNC. Though I'm sad, I'm curious. But it's really interesting because, you know, Gail and I, you and I were at the RNC in Milwaukee. And even just the split screen, of course, there's tons of enthusiasm there with the Republicans. But what a different kind of show we saw tonight and what we've been feeling throughout the week. It is pretty stunning. Yeah.

Yeah. So, I mean, there are lots of differences for one, for me, watching it on TV is a very different experience than being there in person. The Republican party felt very unified. And I think at the time we were thinking, oh, well, the democratic national convention won't be so exuberant, but in fact, it may be even more,

more so. So we're going to talk about the politics and sort of the messaging, but what is it just like to be in the room for these speeches, Nathaniel?

Yeah, it's cool. It's very different, absolutely, from watching it on TV. And, you know, it's interesting. I was talking to former FiveThirtyEight editor Maya Sweedler, a friend of the podcast, about how differently Raphael Warnock's speech was received last night here in the arena. I mean, the delegates liked it, but, you know, at least in the press gallery, I think there was a fair amount of grumbling about it.

about how long it was. And obviously we were, we went over an hour long last night. Um, but apparently on TV, uh, it came across very well. And so I think there are different rhetorical styles, um, that work better kind of like, you know, staring at the screen versus in a, in a stadium. And in addition to the fact that just here, one of the main things is like, there's so many distractions, like there are like delegates, you know, you can like be like talking to their other politicians on the floor, giving interviews during speeches, not obviously during like the

big speeches like Barack Obama's, but during the kind of like 7 p.m. speeches. So it's a very different experience. You are really spending only like 20 percent of your time, I would say, paying attention to what's on the stage until like those last few speeches of the evening. So and actually in that sense, maybe it's more like the typical American experience. Bear with me here in that most Americans aren't watching this convention, obviously, like every speech they're going to see

Well, here and there. Right. And even like the primetime parts of the convention, like the networks are only airing what happens after 10 o'clock. So like any of this, like any of the speeches that happen in the nine o'clock hour probably aren't getting watched by anybody who isn't like watching cable news, which is already going to be a political fanatic. All right. So, Brittany, let's talk about the messaging here. What are we hearing?

And for me, I noticed a significant difference between the first and second night in that the first night, well, the scheduling was pretty off track and it was a little more chaotic and maybe off message. It was a lot about Trump. It was a lot of red meat to the base. It didn't really feel at all like a show that was put on for the median voter. It felt like it was something that was put on for Democrats.

Tonight was a bit more median voter vibes. And I mean, if anybody understands median voter politics in America, it's probably Barack Obama. And so we got a lot of that from him. But we also heard more of that sort of median voter message about the working man and

and not getting taken advantage of and working hard for what you earn in life, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, showing other people grace throughout the evening. That was my takeaway. The first night was for the Democrats and for Biden, and the second night was a little more median voter.

What about you? I think that the message for both nights are very discreet. Yesterday was that was then. Tonight is this is now. And the rest of the week is where do we go from here? We're going to hear from Tim Walz tomorrow and Kamala Harris accepting the nomination on Thursday.

And especially yesterday was supposed to be a swan song for Biden, which is why so much of the programming was revolving around thanking him. You saw those tall placards that said, thank you, Joe. Right. That was the crystallized message of yesterday to let Joe Biden, even though I think far past not just his bedtime, but so many people's bedtime, kind of talk about what the culmination of decades of public service. I went to bed before he finished speaking. I have to admit, I'm so sorry.

Yeah, I did. I did. I have to admit it. It must be nice. It must be nice to be at home cozying your pajamas. It was so nice. It was so nice. For those of us who were awake and paying attention, Galen, you know, it was Biden marking just what decades of public service mean to him. And listen, he's walking into this convention knowing that in his mind four weeks ago, this was supposed to be not just his day, but his week today.

His moment to recapture his message to the American public. And, you know, things changed very obviously. He had to look Nancy Pelosi in the eye as she was holding that placard saying, thank you, Joe. And having that very made for television, you know, tell Cersei it was me, Game of Thrones moment, right? But I think the deep cuts, the deep cuts, deep cuts. That's why you guys keep bringing me back.

But tonight, I think, was really intentional of showing that Biden last night passed the torch. We heard that refrain a ton today. They started very purposely. We heard from Jack Schlossberg. Right.

right, the grandson of JFK. We heard from Jimmy Carter's grandson, Jimmy Carter, who turns 100 in October, showing that was then what's now a continuation of youth, of vitality, and that Kamala Harris is not only the beatified person to take the mantle from Biden, but the person who makes the most sense for policy, the person who makes the most sense in gelling with what the party wants to represent going forward. More than

the vibes, and I'm sure we're going to talk a ton about what the energy in the room, what I've heard from delegates, what I've heard from voters, but showing that

Not only is she the person that they want, but she's a person who's eminently most qualified. And you heard that a little bit from Michelle Obama and Barack Obama at the end of the evening. But it's programming that stretched all the way until five and six kicking off. And that's what you heard from so many young people. Right. And so many Republicans, too, as the party today and for the rest of the week look to expand the tent in their messaging.

Yeah, for sure. When it comes to the median voter stuff, having Republicans walk out and say, I don't recognize my party and I'm a Republican, I'll be voting for Kamala Harris, for example, the mayor of Mesa, Arizona, along with other folks. There's like videos interspersed throughout.

I mean, it should be noted like this is a tale as old as time, right? There's always that person at a convention who you pluck that one member from the other party to come speak. And it's like, oh, it's a big deal. And like you're thinking like Zell Miller speaking at the Republican National Convention in 2004, Joe Lieberman speaking for John McCain at the 2008 RNC. So like that is a very old part of the playbook. And I do want to say we did something new today that we haven't seen before, which is influencers on stage.

which is a little bit speaking to like what the party is now and what they want it to be. I was seeing like TikTokers that I recognize who do like, here's how I get the best linens for my bed on stage and around because they have human messages. And this is a big gamble that the DNC, the Democratic Party was trying to make to show that there's different ways to tell what they believe is the same story. But as people,

I think it was Barack Obama who said the memes and the TikToks and whatnot are not going to carry their campaign through to Election Day. So I'm curious, you were there for the two speeches from the former first lady and former president.

Nathaniel, what were your takeaways from those speeches? And just we got to add a little bit of data in here. I have it on hand. We've been talking about Harris's rising favorability amongst the American public, and it's been a really sort of nonsensical

notable rise, nine points in increase in favorability over the span of a month, basically. Now she's at about 45% favorability. But when we talk about the Obamas, we are talking about people who are not trying to barely break even. We're talking about people who are truly popular in American life. So today, Barack Obama's net favorability is positive 11%.

11. And Michelle Obama's net favorability is positive 14. That stands apart from most other people in American politics, maybe all other people in American politics. So what was that speech like, Nathaniel? Yeah, no, absolutely. I mean, like, compare this, obviously, to Joe Biden, who you're

remains unpopular with the American people. And it was always going to be awkward to try to make the case to have four more years of Democrats while also thanking Joe Biden, who most Americans think has not done a good job as president. So like I think last night, to some extent, was always kind of doomed from the start. But like

This was a night that they were dealt a very favorable deck because of the numbers you cited, because of how favorably the Obamas are viewed. Yeah, I think the speeches were extremely successful in that regard. Obviously, they were received very, very well here in the hall, like Michelle Obama's like when she was announced to come out like that was phenomenal.

the loudest that it has been. And obviously, you know, we at FiveThirtyEight aren't going to put too much stock in things like decibel level of crowds or crowd sizes or anything like that. But there was a lot of enthusiasm for them, despite kind of how long they've been off of the stage. Every time I hear Barack Obama speak, I just am reminded of like, oh, yeah, like this guy is

so good at this. Like, there is a reason he's a generational political talent that goes beyond just kind of his rhetorical abilities. Like, you know, they both had nice turns of phrases and, you know, like spoke very kind of compellingly in a way that forces you to pay attention to it in a way that, frankly, like Joe Biden and really like most speakers don't do, even the speakers during the six o'clock, seven o'clock hour. But I was really struck by how

Yeah, the Obamas really were going for the median voter again. So like one thing I thought was interesting was the Barack Obama mentioned how Trump's four years in office were chaotic. And like I think he said something like they're full of like bluster and bumbling and chaos. And like we've seen that movie before. And the sequel is always worse. And yeah.

That, I think, stood in real contrast to the way that Joe Biden usually talks about Donald Trump, which is like threat to democracy, kind of unacceptable type of thing. And.

You know, I think that that obviously works. The democracy stuff works for a certain type of audience. And I think a lot of that audience is here in the hall tonight. But Barack Obama didn't go that way. He went the way that like even a lot of Republicans say, yeah, like, you know, Donald Trump was a great president. He had a lot of great policies, but I could do without the 3 a.m. tweets or whatever. Basically, Barack Obama went straight for that. Michelle Obama, similarly, I thought like one of the best lines that she had was she referred to the affirmative action of generational wealth.

and affirmative action, as we have talked about on this podcast, not popular. Generational wealth, like the idea of like oligarchs and stuff like that, not popular. An economic populism argument. I thought there was also a moment, I forget exactly when, in Barack's speech, he talked about Donald Trump and his billionaire friends, right? Like, you know, I feel like we don't hear that

that often from Joe Biden, even though he does do the economic populism thing fairly often. But like that to me was like, oh, yeah, that's how Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in 2012 was being like, I'm the populist and Mitt Romney is the out of touch rich guy. And I think that that is a proven success story for Democrats trying to win elections. And Barack Obama was kind of trying to go in that direction. It'll be interesting to see if Harris follows suit.

What really struck me was how clear Michelle and Barack were talking to other Democrats to maybe stop their complaining, stop their hand-wringing, and just go out and do the damn work.

Right.

As well, and so much wondering, well, is the country ready for someone who's black? Is the country ready for a South Asian woman? And this label here and that label there. And it takes up so much auction. And Michelle Obama is saying that's a distraction, Democrats. And you cannot give even one more inch that. You need to be out there knocking doors. All this enthusiasm, as you guys will know, doesn't really mean anything.

unless there's an infrastructure behind it. And the Harris campaign has told me again and again that they have built out an infrastructure in the last four weeks trying to meet that enthusiasm. But if not one volunteer signs up, then that's kind of all for naught. There can be as many empty phone banking tables as they want. And I think Michelle Obama made a very clear message to the Democrats, just get off your ass and start working the phones, because if you don't, Donald Trump might win.

Yeah, it's interesting that a lot of sort of what you're saying, Michelle Obama said, stop worrying about was some of the messaging of Monday night itself. And Michelle Obama saying, put that to the side. And then thank you for taking me up for this.

Brittany, but she had a use of polling. She said, quote, if we see a bad poll and we will, we got to put down that phone and do something, which was part of, you know, the part of her speech that you're describing where she's saying, just do something, do something, do something. And so, yeah,

I thought it was worth a mention. I don't know that there's much to analyze there unless you have something, Nathaniel. I mean, that's not a piece of analysis, but like I will say it is refreshing to hear someone be like because the default reaction, unfortunately, from both parties in this election so far has been you hear a bad poll, you deny the validity of that poll. And it was refreshing to hear Michelle Obama not do that.

Finally, I found the one. What? Tell me more. Who is it? Solitaire Grand Harvest. Solitaire Grand Harvest? The mobile card game? Trust me, you're about to fall head over heels for this game. Wow. So, can I have a go? Get your own Solitaire Grand Harvest. Download Solitaire Grand Harvest for free today and you'll receive 10,000 free coins. Enter the App Store or Google Play and let the grand excitement begin. It's so worth it. Download now. It's free.

Finally, I found the one. What? Tell me more. Who is it? Solitaire Grand Harvest. Solitaire Grand Harvest? The mobile card game? Trust me, you're about to fall head over heels for this game. Wow. So, can I have a go? Get your own Solitaire Grand Harvest. Download Solitaire Grand Harvest for free today and you'll receive 10,000 free coins. Enter the App Store or Google Play and let the grand excitement begin. It's so worth it. Download now. It's free.

You know, it was interesting to me listening to Barack Obama's speech in particular that you actually didn't hear a lot about Kamala Harris. He made an argument for democracy. He made an argument for civic life.

He made an argument for basically give people grace. Don't judge people. Even if you disagree with one thing that they might say, he made an argument against American sort of,

not isolationism on a global scale, but the isolation of individual Americans, you know, who have disengaged from civic life, who are on social media, who don't feel maybe the bonds that they want to with other Americans. And I thought that was really interesting in a way that

Michelle Obama, when she introduced Barack, was saying, I live with this guy. I know that he wakes up every day worried about, you know, thinking about what's best for the country. It seemed like both of them came out and said, I have a couple of things that have been on my mind and that I want to get off my chest. And there was definitely the like vote for Kamala Harris part of it. But there was also Michelle Obama saying that line about, you

you know, Donald Trump being a reactionary to seeing two, you know, well-educated, competent people in the White House who happen to be Black. There was Barack Obama, and I'm just going to go for it, gesturing with his hands about perhaps the size of Donald Trump's junk. Is junk the official terminology? Of all the words that you, of all the euphemisms, that's the one you went with? I don't know. Give me a better one. Member. Member is a good one. Okay, all right.

It's a political one. But it was like, you kind of heard from two people who have been on the sidelines consuming all of this, thinking about it, and then saying, I got a couple thoughts. Well, and these people aren't on cable news in the same way every single other mainstager is, or at least would very much like to be. And all those other people are...

are offering their own versions of arguments for why Harris, from the celebrities to the influencers to the young Democrats, the people who have known them for decades. So both Michelle and the Barack, I think, know that when they talk, people listen because, you know, they're known quantities and it's scarce. Yeah. Yeah.

And there's been so much speculation of what they actually think and what's George Clooney telling them and how involved are they in trying to get Biden out that this is their time to set their record straight. Right. And be very clear about what they think about the other guys and how they think their party should be embracing rhetoric and whether they think that it's been the best policy so far. And I think what you heard from Barack and Michelle Obama is that maybe they believe the Democrats should be retooling their message like just a little bit.

And the way that I think Tim Walz is very successful in speaking very plainly with that Republican's a weird argument

I think you're hearing shades and versions of that by saying, listen, you don't necessarily need to be divisive. Back when I had a culture of competency and decency and most people are good if you only just talk to them, because like I said before, when voters talk to other voters, they can be persuasive and get them on their side. I'm sure we have the polling somewhere in the data that the most effective influencer or messenger is the person you already know.

Someone in your community, your family member. Right. Yeah. And I mean, that's why they that's why they sort of get Republicans to go out to convince other Republicans to, you know, cross party lines in group at group. But you're getting at a theme there, Brittany, that I think is interesting in that when Obama has spoken during the Trump years, it has.

in many cases, been sort of criticizing the party for being a little too ideological, for being a little too left wing. He's made critiques about the party on immigration, on cancel culture. And tonight he kind of did the exact same thing.

And I think maybe folks forget about it and the whole sort of celebrity of his 2008 and 2012 campaign and the way that he really got young people and left wing people really excited. But he was a politician who played to median voter politics. That speech that you mentioned, Nathaniel, in 2004. Yeah.

He got famous saying there's no red or blue America, talking about how there's no black or white America. And sort of he brought up the Little League games again in his speech tonight that he, I think, brought up back in 2004. So anyway, we talk a lot about what is it to play media inverter politics on this podcast. And I think these are some examples. Anyway, it's getting late and we got more podcasts to do throughout this week. But final thoughts before we go, Nathaniel. Yeah.

Yeah, so I think that Doug Emhoff's speech deserves a mention or, you know, a little bit of a back and forth. I thought his speech was really good, too. Obviously, it served the role that the candidate's spouse usually serves, which is to humanize the candidate. He told a lot of very endearing anecdotes about Kamala Harris. And during that speech was when I was thinking about the thing that you mentioned, Galen, which is the rapid, rapid rise in Kamala Harris's favorable ratings since she became the Democratic candidate.

de facto presidential candidate. She has gone from, just to repeat the numbers on net, she's gone from negative 16 points underwater when she wasn't a candidate to now she's only two points underwater, which really is actually, I think, quite remarkable for a candidate in this day and age. I think, especially given the tendency of conventions to produce a polling bounce, I wouldn't be surprised if she is net

positive favorable after this week, which again would be pretty remarkable and kind of blows up the whole narrative of this race, which is it was supposed to be between two candidates who were very disliked. And that was the double haters are going to decide everything. And there were going to be a lot of people voting for third parties because of that. And when all of a sudden one candidate gets replaced with somebody who is well-liked or is like,

potentially going to be positive, favorable, that is a big deal. And I think Doug Hemhoff's speech did a really good job basically taking that trend and trying to push it forward. I just think we have to talk about the roll call in like an illegitimate way. All right, let's do it. Because the last roll call, yeah. Lil Jon from the Windows to the Walls. The Tim Walls. So that was the name of the party last night that Lil Jon, I think, hosted or at least was a guest at from the Windows to the Walls. So you were on the money there.

But I mean, just I think it's just remarkable because if you think of a virtual the virtual roll call that the Democrats did last cycle. Right. There was like, oh, yeah, there is the calamari guy. There are all these little viral moments. By the way, the calamari guy is voting for Trump this cycle. At least that's what he says. So an interesting about face there from Rhode Island, from Rhode Island. Yeah, I remember that. I did some Googling today and checked.

But it was such a celebration of joy. And I say that because four weeks ago, that was not the vibrations of the Democratic Party. And I do really think that represents a tacit change.

People were dancing, people were having a good time. The actual party business was done virtually earlier on this month. Maybe there's an argument to do all that stuff before the conventions actually happen. And it was just really riveting for me to see the difference. And when I was getting text delegates on the floor who were excited and who were enthralled, who four weeks ago,

We're like really effing nervous about the direction their party was going in. And I'm not saying just because they know how to throw a good party that Democrats should be feeling a lot more energized of their electoral probability in November. But I think there is a really big pivot happening. And it seems that there is some sustainability that I was a bit cynical that the ball would be in the air, the excitement would be so fresh all the way here.

All right. Well, we will see how that energy evolves throughout the rest of the week. So thank you to our correspondents in Chicago, Nathaniel and Brittany. Thank you, Galen. Talk to you soon, guys. We'll see you here tomorrow night.

My name is Galen Dirk. Our producers are Shane McKeon and Cameron Trotavian, and our intern is Jayla Everett. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts at 538.com. You can also, of course, tweet at us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or a review in the Apple Podcast Store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening, and we'll see you soon. ♪