The world Trump inherits
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The congratulations are pouring in from around the world. Congratulations, President-elect Donald Trump. Nah, I can't do it. Leaders are offering an olive branch to the next president of the United States. Our two nations share an unbreakable bond until, of course, you decide to break that bond for no particular reason. That wasn't a world leader. That was a comedian, Mr. Cody Dollar on TikTok. But here's Trudeau. I look forward to working with...

- President Trump once again. - And Scheinbaum. - To all Mexicans, I say there is no reason to worry. - And NATO. - You have a president who is experienced, who is extremely clear about what he wants. - And Netanyahu. - Calling Trump's victory history's greatest comeback.

And BFF Putin. Saying, quote, he behaved, in my opinion, in a very correct way, courageously, like a real man. On Today Explained, we're going to explore the world Trump inherits and what he's going to do with it.

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Everything about music is secretly a story about technology. How we listen to it from vinyl to iPods to Spotify. How we make it from pianos to computer plugins to AI prompts. How we discover it from music blogs to TikTok. All this month on The Verge Cast, we're telling stories about those changes and how technological change changes not just the way we experience music, but the way we experience music.

but the music itself. All that, all this month on The Vergecast, wherever you find podcasts. Today Explained. I'm Josh Keating. I write about foreign policy and national security for Vox. Josh, how is the world Donald Trump is stepping into in January different than it was in 2016? Could you just remind us? Well, I think the world is a much more unstable and a much more violent place. And it's sort of funny to say that because if...

Definitely in 2016, it didn't feel like we were living through this era of stability and security. You know, there was still the war against ISIS going on in the Middle East. ISIS, described by President Obama as solely a regional threat just over a year ago,

is now global, active in eight countries and counting. And it has a growing focus on carrying out attacks in the West. There were terrorist attacks happening on U.S. soil still. A shooting in downtown Orlando at the Pulse nightclub. 49 people were killed when Omar Mateen opened fire. North Korea was testing nuclear weapons. Today, the DPRK said that it conducted an underground nuclear test amid threats of more sanctions from the United States and others. There were

Russian troops on Ukrainian soil. Spreading out throughout the strategic Crimean Peninsula, President Obama... But, you know, fast forward...

Eight years and a lot's changed. Ukraine is now a nation at war. Fears are growing of a wider conflict in the Middle East. War devastating Sudan that echoes the Darfur genocide of 20 years ago. The last three years saw more conflict-related deaths than at any time in the last three decades. The number of armed conflicts have increased. And I think, you know, maybe more important than that is the sort of character of those conflicts has changed. ♪

We're not just talking about wars within states, fights between states and terrorist groups. We're seeing conventional warfare on European soil. We're seeing in the Middle East, obviously, growing tension and violence, not just between Israel and Gaza, but risks of war between Israel and Iran that could draw in the United States.

And then the one looming over all these that could be potentially far more destructive than any of them is the risk of conflict between the U.S. and China, which I'd say you'd have to say has only grown in the last eight years. So the world has gotten more unstable, more dangerous, and the sort of risks of each individual decision that a U.S. president makes have only gotten worse.

you know, more dramatic over the last eight years. Let's talk about the three conflicts that are top of mind for Donald Trump, but also most of the world now stepping into a new presidency. Ukraine, Gaza, and China. It's been two years now, and some, since Russia invaded Ukraine. Where does the war stand today? Well, the blunt fact of it is Ukraine is losing. Russia is...

You know, starting slowly but surely regaining territory. They're doing it at enormous cost to their own forces. Just obscene, untold levels of casualties on the Russian side. But, you know, Russia has a larger population than Ukraine and is steadily gaining. The big development we've seen in the last few weeks is North Korean troops.

have entered the fight on the Russian side. You know, it's not a good position for the Ukrainians right now. And you'd have to say it got worse as a result of the U.S. election. So Putin is now saying it's independent, a large section of Ukraine. I said, how smart is that? And

and he's going to go in and be a peacekeeper. Donald Trump has pledged to immediately end the war in Ukraine. I would get him into a room, I'd get Zelensky into a room, then I'd bring them together and I'd have a deal worked out. Presumably, if you look at the statements he has made, the statements that his running mate, J.D. Vance, made, this would involve sort of pressuring Ukraine

to give up territory. Ukraine remains its independent sovereignty. Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine. It doesn't join NATO. It doesn't join some of these sort of allied institutions. And I think that's ultimately what this looks like. And by the way, the Germans... Basically acceding to many of Russia's core war aims. Clearly, this is not the result Ukraine was hoping for in the U.S. election. But I think that war is going to continue at least for some time.

OK, let's talk about Gaza and Israel, because it's the other war that's top of mind for most people right now. Trump actually didn't talk that much about this conflict on the campaign trail. I think he was very happy to sit back and let the tensions over in Israel and Gaza, you know, divide the Democrats. That only played to his advantage.

But, you know, I don't think we should expect to see Trump put any pressure on Israel that the Biden administration didn't. I think if you look at his record in the first term where he basically acceded to everything the Israelis wanted from... Directing the State Department to begin preparation to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv...

to Jerusalem. To recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. He basically gave the Israelis everything they wanted. And I think we should expect to see that again. I think that maybe the personal relationship between Trump and Netanyahu isn't as close as it once was. Trump has talked several times about how ticked off he was that, um,

Netanyahu quickly recognized Joe Biden's electoral victory in 2020 when some other far-right leaders around the world sort of didn't do that. So I think we should expect, you know, the Israeli government to get a lot more latitude. I don't think there's going to be as much pressure on them in terms of their targeting, in terms of letting in humanitarian aid, etc.

Israel has actually accomplished many of its major war aims in Gaza. And so there's a chance we could just see sort of a unilateral ceasefire in the coming months just because of

things on the ground sort of taking their own course rather than, you know, Trump actually like putting any pressure on the Israeli government. Let's talk about China, one of Trump's faves. China. I love them. What's changed there since he was last in office? I think that what we've seen is a sort of growing recognition or at least consciousness of China's growing power and concerns about that spiraling into open conflict.

I was just in Taiwan a few weeks ago where that may be the place people are looking to most closely. China is launching two days of military drills surrounding Taiwan just days after the island swore in its new president. There are U.S. military commanders who say they expect open

open military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Within the next five years, we've seen sort of clashes between, you know, sort of informal Chinese forces and the Philippines. That's tension that's growing. The Philippines and China on Saturday accused each other of intentionally ramming Coast Guard ships in disputed waters of the South China Sea. This is actually an area where there's been a little more continuity between the Trump and then the Biden administrations.

They both clearly viewed China as the kind of main competitor to the United States on the world stage. There were differences in how they approached it. With Biden, there was a lot more emphasis on sort of building alliances in the Asia-Pacific region. But, you know, Trump's China policy is a little unpredictable. I love China.

People say, oh, you don't like China. No, I love him. Trump talks about how he had a good relationship with Xi Jinping, how, you know, they were making good deals until, you know, what he calls the China virus came onto the scene. He's a fierce warrior. He's a fierce challenger. But I had a very good relationship with him. You know, Joe Biden would talk about this sort of like good versus evil Cold War framing. We're in competition with China and other countries to win the 21st century.

We're at a great inflection point in history. We have to do more than just build back better. To build back, we have to build back better. With Trump, it's always a little more transactional. I think he wants to see what kind of deal he can get on trade. One theme that we saw again and again during the first Trump administration was that he and his advisors would often say radically different things

So the world has changed quite significantly since Donald Trump was last in office. He was even running on that fact throughout his campaign. Has the way he sees the world changed at all? I don't really think so. I think he has this idea that his sort of aggressive rhetoric is just a way of saying, you know, we're going to do this.

and unpredictable behavior actually led to stability in the world. I mean, there's this idea that goes back to the Cold War, the madman theory, that actually, like, that if they think you're crazy, they'll be more careful. And I think he sort of runs on that. I think that maybe...

are a little more careful because he's more unpredictable. But I also think allies may be, you know, a little less able to count on U.S. protection and that changes their behavior too. I'd say it doesn't make the world more peaceful necessarily. I think it makes the world more unpredictable. When we're back on Today Explained, we're going to try and understand Trump's foreign policy because why not? It might help.

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Support for Today Explained comes from New York magazine's The Strategist. If you know The Strategist, then you know that it's a site that's meant to help people shop the internet smartly. The people who edit The Strategist are reporters, they are testers, they are obsessives. They care about function, value, innovation, and they have good taste.

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seal of approval. You can go to the strategist.com slash gift scout to try it out yourself. Today, Explain is back with Josh Keating. Josh, if you had to sum up Donald Trump's approach to the world, to foreign policy, how would you do it? Transactional, I think is what it is.

It's not based on principle. Like, obviously, it's not going to talk a lot about human rights and democracy the way that Joe Biden did. It's not about just going after Russia when they violate human rights. It's about who we are. Or even the way that, you know, George W. Bush did. We must continue to do more to improve the human condition in North Korea. With Trump, I mean, look at how he handled North Korea in his first term. North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States.

They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. Then it was the beautiful friendship, the beautiful romance between him and Kim Jong-un. And then we fell in love, okay? No, really. He wrote me beautiful letters. And they're great letters.

We fell in love. He's able to quickly pivot on a dime if he thinks that there are deals to be had. And I'd say that those deals can often be sort of short-term gains. I mean, he's a real estate guy. He wants to cut deals. And often, I would say, he will put short-term gain over sort of long-term stability.

In the piece I wrote, I looked at sort of a couple of principles that I don't think he puts faith in. One is the kind of nuclear taboo, this idea that use of nuclear weapons is, you know, absolutely unacceptable and we should be doing everything we can to avoid it or even avoid talking about it. He's somebody who sort of openly flirted with it. The president is tweeting about how his nuclear button is much bigger and more powerful than Kim Jong-un. We have

Two maniacs with nuclear warheads bragging about who has the bigger button. Another one's the, you know, sort of territorial integrity, this idea that you don't change borders by force. He doesn't seem to have much interest in that. He, you know, talked when he was president about how he thought maybe we should just, like, let Russia have Crimea. You know, the people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were.

And you have to look at that also. And another is the importance of alliances. I mean, this is something that's sort of a key pillar of U.S. foreign policy is the idea that global security benefits through alliances like NATO. One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, "Well, sir, if we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us?" I said, "You didn't pay? You're delinquent?

He said, "Yes, let's say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills."

The reason Russia isn't lobbing missiles at Poland or the Czech Republic or Hungary, even though those countries are helping Ukraine, is because they are members of NATO and they know that an attack on one is an attack on all. Trump sees that as a scam. He sees those countries as just like free riding on Ukraine.

U.S. security guarantees. And his idea, and he said this explicitly with respect to Taiwan, that if they expect the U.S. to come to their defense, they should be paying us for it. Okay, transactional, proud of his big button, not proud of our alliances, and not crazy about territorial integrity. So how does that apply to the war in Ukraine, which he says... If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours.

Well, what's interesting is we've already seen the Ukrainians kind of like adapt their pitch to the new reality. So you've actually seen President Volodymyr Zelensky in recent weeks talk a little more about the natural resources on his territory and how, you know, they have sort of big deposits of lithium and like things we'll need for, you know, EVs and, you know, how important it is for us to defend Ukraine because we don't want these falling into Russian hands. And so under Biden...

they would talk about, you know, how we have to stand up for democracy and how, you know, how when we're defending Ukraine, we're defending the Western-led international rules-based order. Donald Trump doesn't care about the Western rules-based international order. But, you know, he is somebody who says that when we invaded Iraq, we should have taken the oil. I think we're going to hear how it's in the U.S.'s sort of economic interest

to sort of keep Ukraine in the U.S. orbit. They're sitting on $10 to $12 trillion of critical minerals in Ukraine. They could be the richest country in all of Europe. I don't want to give that money and those assets to Putin to share with China. If we help Ukraine now, they can become the best business partner we ever dreamed of. I think we're going to see like a lot of other countries sort of pivoting the way they think

sort of sell themselves to Washington under this new administration. Who do we think is going to be in Donald Trump's ear this time around when it comes to foreign policy? He's famously not a student of, you know, the world. But will he surround himself with some savvy folks? I think that's going to be a big change between, you know, Trump 1 and Trump 2.

Trump had a thing for a man in uniform the first time around. My generals, those generals are going to keep us so safe. I think he liked having sort of, you know, former generals in his cabinet because, you know, these guys with sort of tough guy reputations like H.R. McMaster and James Mattis. You know, famously, one of the reasons he picked Jim Mattis was because he liked that his nickname was Mad Dog when he was president.

A general. Mad Dog. He's great.

He is great. And I think what he discovered was that these guys actually, you know, they may be tough, but they also have sort of rather traditional views of national security priorities. They're not the kind of guys who wanted to pull the U.S. out of NATO. And so I think this time around, he's not going to rely on generals, my generals, the way he did the last time. I think you're going to see more true believers.

A couple of names. I mean, Mike Pompeo, who is his CIA director and then Secretary of State, is somebody who actually does still have a good relationship with Trump, who didn't have a falling out with him. People have talked about him coming back in. I'm especially proud.

that we made religious freedom a top priority in the United States foreign policy for the first time in America's history. Robert O'Brien is maybe the only one of Trump's national security advisors who didn't turn on him. I was privileged and proud to work for the president and to serve America in multiple administrations. And if I'm asked, I'll obviously do my part, but we'll have to wait and see what the president wants to do. Rick Grenell, who is his former ambassador to Germany,

like a really sort of outspoken critic of European countries and of NATO. Somebody with like real sharp elbows, not well liked around Brussels. People have talked about him as taking a senior role. Would you think German politicians would like you to become Secretary of State under Donald Trump? I don't care what they think.

where this is about America. Bill Hagerty, the current senator from Tennessee who was Trump's ambassador to Japan, that's a name that's come a lot. I'm not going to speculate on what the future might be. I'll leave that to the speculators except to say that I'm going to do everything I can to move us forward, bring our economy back, our national security back, and get America moving again. There's sort of more of like a MAGA core coming out of the D.C. foreign policy world than there was eight years ago.

And what do we think, you know, MAGA core group of true believers implementing Trump's vision or maybe even lack thereof for American standing in the world means for America's standing in the world, be it our alliances in NATO or just our influence overall?

Well, you know, I think a lot of U.S. allies are going, this is a wake-up call for them about their own national security. You know, I've had some European diplomats like off the record say like they kind of think Trump had a little bit of a point that the, you know, European countries should be spending a greater percentage of their GDP on defense. So we may see some

more of these countries spending a little more on defense. That could be true in Europe, in East Asia as well. One thing I'm keeping an eye on that concerns me is they may decide that rather than doing that,

It may be cheaper and simpler, rather than sort of building a big standing army that can deter an attack from Russia, China, North Korea, pick your adversary, to just seek your own nuclear weapons. We even heard President Zelensky in Ukraine say that, you know, Ukraine's future is either in NATO or with a nuclear weapon. I don't have alternative except NATO.

That was my signal. What do you think it is that we get wrong about Donald Trump's foreign policy? People try to characterize him as either a dove or a hawk, that he's either like a warmonger or like a total isolationist who will pull back the U.S. from the world. I don't think either of those is really true. I think that he's somebody who...

takes a very kind of transactional approach to foreign policy, puts a lot of faith in personal relationships, and is sort of one-on-one talks with guys like Xi Jinping, like Kim Jong-un, like Vladimir Putin, and doesn't have a lot of time for sort of talk about alliances or rules-based international order. He looks at

crises and at U.S. relationships and asks, generously speaking, what's in it for the U.S., not so generously speaking, what's in it for me? And he's willing to use both hawkish and dovish tools to get there.

Josh Keating, Vox.com. If memory serves, the last time Trump was president, there was a lot to explain. Vox is gearing up to help you understand the next four years. You can support our work by joining our membership program today. Go to Vox.com slash members to sign up and thank you. Our show today was produced by Peter Balan on Rosen, edited by Amin Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Laura Bullard and Amanda Llewellyn and Hadi Mawagdi and mixed by Patrick Boyd.

and Andrea Christen's daughter, the rest of us, Miles Bryan, Avishai Artsy, Victoria Chamberlain, Halima Shah, Rob Beyer, Zach Mack, and Eliza Dennis, who made a perfectly timed exit this week. We use music by Breakmaster Cylinder, Matthew Collette supervises edits, Miranda Kennedy executive produces, and Noel King hosts the most. I'm Sean Ramos-Firm, and this is Today Explained. Today Explained

Bye.